Top Totals System in NL Central Matchup

After a 0-8 start to 2010, the Astros finally got off the launching pad and won eight of their next 10 to have a respectable record for April. Unfortunately the next opponent after the hot stretch was Cincinnati, their kryptonite when they start to play like Superman.

The Reds were off a .500 homestand but just the thought of those Houston uniforms gave the Astros a feeling of superiority. Cincinnati has won the first two games of this series taking their record to 11-1 against the Stros, with six wins in seven tries at Minute Maid Park.

Tonight’s situation doesn’t set up nearly as well for the Reds, facing their greatest nemesis.

Houston’s offense is laughable, ranked last in runs scored at 3.3 per game and on-base percentage of .285, but that hardly matters with Roy Oswalt (2-2, 2.42 ERA) pitching. The right-hander is 23-1 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.58 ERA. When dressed in the home whites, Oswalt is perfect 12-0 in 16 starts with even lower earned run average of 2.26.

Oswalt will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo (0-2, 7.43), who is like a Moen faucet, he runs hot and cold. Presently he is in the near frozen category, but his manager has seen this before.

“We’ve covered this before,” Dusty Baker said. “He’ll go through a few starts where he struggles, then he’ll reel off seven or eight in a row. I hope this is the end of the bad streak.”

Arroyo is 4-0 in last four starts against Houston, with razor-sharp 1.69 ERA and two complete games.

Houston is a -170 money line favorite; however the important number is the total which is 7.5 for this super situation.

Play Under on home teams when the total is 7 to 8.5, with a repugnant offensive scoring less than 4.1 runs per game, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, facing a NL pitcher with ERA of 5.70 or higher.

Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average first climbed above 8,000 (1997), this totals system is 38-13. For additional reinforcement, Arroyo is 13-2 UNDER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and Houston is 27-12 UNDER the first month of the season the last two years.

Take a long look at this highly profitable baseball system.

MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

Topics from The House of Sports

Philly Shows The Love

Former Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden, Tony Kornheiser’s replacement in the ESPN Monday Night Football broadcast booth, had his debut upstaged at last night’s Arizona-Pittsburgh game by breaking news that the Philadelphia Eagles had signed QB Michael Vick to a one-year deal with an option for a second year. Once the highest-paid player in the NFL, Vick’s well-documented fall from grace following his conviction on dog-fighting charges came to an end on July 27 when Commissioner Roger Goodell conditionally lifted his suspension. Since then, there’s been a media feeding frenzy over where or if Vick would be an object of interest for any team this season. Former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski, who shares MNF analyst duties with Gruden, was seemingly aghast over the hire. “What are they thinking?” sputtered Jaworski. “What is going through Donovan McNabb’s mind right now?” Gruden then responded with the evening’s best zinger when he declared, “Jaws, I know why you’re so upset. You think Michael Vick is gonna head right into Philadelphia and sell more #7 jerseys in one season than you did in your entire career!” Gruden then offered a classy “welcome back” to the former Atlanta QB, stating that Vick had accepted responsibility for his actions, served his sentence and was following the proper channels to revive his career. We couldn’t agree more…

Bronson Speaks

USA Today Sports currently features an interesting profile of Cincinnati pitcher Bronson Arroyo. According to the post, Arroyo dips into a grab-bag of pills and supplements on a daily basis – despite the fact that some of them could trigger a positive test under baseball’s current drug policy. “A lot of guys in the locker room think I’m out of my mind because I’m taking a lot of things not on the (MLB-approved) list,” Arroyo says. “I take 10 to 12 different things a day, and on the days I pitch, there’s four more things. But I haven’t failed any tests, so I figure I’m good.” And regarding media reaction to the seemingly endless hoopla over performance-enhancing drugs, Arroyo is equally outspoken. “As far as looking at Manny Ramirez like he’s Ted Bundy, that’s crazy. At the end of the day, you think anybody really cares whether Manny Ramirez’s kidneys fail and he dies at 50? People just want to see their team win games. Then they go home and have a cookout with the family. No big deal.” Bronson apparently took the proper supplements last night: he pitched a complete game, two-hit shutout in a 7-0 win over Washington. Better living through chemistry!

Rebel Rousers

No doubt about it… the Ole Miss Rebels are the media darlings of the 2009 college football season. Mississippi was the only team to beat BCS Champ Florida last year (in The Swamp, no less!) and closed out the season with a 6-game win streak that included a sound beating of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Ranked #10 in the initial USA Today coaches’ preseason poll, Ole Miss now faces a challenge from which few have emerged unscathed – breaking the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx! Yes, QB Jevan Snead and C Daverin Geralds are featured on the cover of SI’s SEC preview issue, one of four national covers currently being circulated. Will the Rebs be able to handle their overnight success or will they fall victim to The Curse? Las Vegas thinks they have a good shot at staying in the limelight, tabbing the Ole Miss Over/Under for season wins at 9 games.

Courtesy of the House of Sports.

Reds with backs to wall, up against Rugged System

The Cincinnati Reds are fading faster than a budget surplus at any city across the United States. The Reds have lost 17 of last 27 games to tumble into fifth place in the National League Central. In fact, with there 44-49 record (-2.3 units), Pittsburgh can actually see an opportunity of climbing out of the cellar. Just how valueless has Cincinnati become, only San Diego and Washington have a worse runs scored-runs allowed deficit (-61) in the senior circuit.

The Reds problems are scattered like tornado going thru a neighborhood. Offensively, Cincinnati has a “full house” of defective numbers. The Reds rank 14th in the National League in runs scored, batting average and on-base percentage. Those numbers are coupled with ranking 13th in total bases and slugging percentage. No wonder Cincy has lost six of last eight against teams with winning record.

The pitching numbers though better, are not exactly inspiring. Cincinnati ranks 9th in ERA at 4.27. They concede too many walks, ranked 11th and don’t earn many easy outs, positioned 12th in strikeouts. The Reds are tied for 12th in quality starts with 45 on the season. Fortunately they have been able to win when leading late with 82.1 percent save percentage.

Bronson Arroyo (10-8, 5.07, 1.454) is having another Six Flags seasons, going up and down. At the present time he’s in the zone, not allowing a run in last two starts over 16 innings and has posted 2.14 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. “I’m a roller coaster out there,” Arroyo told the Reds’ official Web site. “Right now, I’m going good. I’ll take every zero on the board I can get. The more you go out there like that, you feel confident. … You just try to ride the wave.” (Dude, were with you man)

Cincinnati is trying to not to be swept by the Dodgers (60-34, +19.6), who are 32-15 at home and 42-23 against right-hand starters.

Chad Billingsley (9-5, 3.76, 1.283) has been the Los Angeles ace, but not of late. Billingsley has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings. He’ll hope to find an early rhythm and save a bullpen that has done phenomenal work with 3.21 ERA and 1.238 WHIP.
This all leads to Bookmaker.com making L.A. a -200 money line favorite with a total Ov8 and the Reds being in unfit area.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are NL team with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a solid bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less ), with a scalding starting pitcher sporting ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

Over the last five seasons, this system is sizzling 54-11, 83.1 percent. The Reds are 8-21 as +150 to +200 underdogs and unimaginable 50-100 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base. The Dodgers have won 52 of last 75 games at Dodger Stadium and are 8-1 in Billingsley’s last nine starts against teams with losing record.

If the money line makes one feel a bit uncomfortable backing the Dodgers, the average score differential of this superb system is 2.1 runs, adding the run line as potential wager. One more aspect to consider, the Reds have lost eight in a row at the home of the Dodgers.