Ravens at Patriots Betting Matchup

The Baltimore Ravens, off a pair of playoffs wins a year ago, head into New England believing they can at least match that total. The Ravens are not concerned about New England being 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS) in home playoff games during the Tom Brady era. They view this as opportunity because of advantages they see for themselves.

Start with Baltimore was fifth in rushing at 137.9 yards per game and the Patriots were a pedestrian 23rd in allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have both gotten hot and New England has been forced to “junk-up” its defense to increase productivity in recent weeks with mixed results.

Though the Ravens secondary finished eighth in passing defense, their cornerbacks are beatable. Fortunately for them, they will have one less weapon to deal with in Wes Welker, done for the season. That means the Baltimore can focus their attention on Randy Moss. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in road playoff games.

New England is in the postseason again after winning their seventh AFC East title in nine years, though not the team of prior seasons. The Patriots were perfect at Gillette Stadium this season (5-3 ATS), which included a hard-fought 27-21 win in Week 4 over Baltimore.

With Welker out, the underneath role falls to rookie Julian Edelman to be the slot receiver. Though Edelman has been productive when called upon this season, he lacks the skill and savvy of Welker. Having played quarterback in college, he doesn’t have the experience to find seams and read coverage’s as well. Expect the New England game plan to include screens to running backs and more throws to the tight ends to make up for Welker’s loss. The Pats are 23-5 ATS playing against a marginal winning team (51 to 60 win percentage).

Bill Belicheck’s defense gave up 144 yards rushing to Houston last week, but run stoppers Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren had the week off and should be refresher. In the last five weeks, the Patriots have been generating a better pass rush off the edges; particularly from LB Tully Banta-Cain. Derrick Burgess had a good game last week for the Pats; expect to see more of him since Joe Flacco is not always quick to feel the pressure from the perimeter.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Brady Bunch as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 43.5. The Patriots are 21-7-1 ATS following a SU loss and are is 17-6 UNDER in playoff games. Achieving a semblance of offensive balance will be crucial and quick hitting plays running off-tackle.

Baltimore is 21-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game and the offensive line has been mowing down the opposition to the tune of 211.7 yards the last month. If they move the pile on New England, they can exploit an untrustworthy New England secondary. With journeyman Leigh Bodden their best cover guy, even an ordinary pass-catching contingent like the Ravens can do damage.

The Birds are 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of seven points or less.

Baltimore at Green Bay Monday night matchup

Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.

Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted he’s been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. He’s thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.

The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.

For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday night’s overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but they’ve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.

This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.

The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bay’s lineup it’ll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites, with total of 42.5, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.

Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens’ coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.

Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.

Monday Night System – Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

AFC Title Game Info

In today’s unstable world and even shakier economy, we are being bombarded with messages about “thinking outside the box” or embracing change to whether thru the worst of times anyone has seen in decades. Yet when it comes to our sports clichés, we accept them like old tales - “feed a cold, starve a fever.” The AFC Championship game brings one of oldies but goodies that everyone from any age has heard, “It’s hard to beat the same team three times.”

Even before the end of Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego and the clock striking midnight Sunday, if you had a dollar for every time that expression was used on the various sports stations, come last Monday morning, you had enough money to eat lunch out all week and not on the dollar menu either. Even the participants were beating the drum. "It's hard to beat a team three times in a row in a season,'' Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor stated.

The next installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC North rivalry will to be the most important meeting in the history of the series. The winner heads to warm and sunny Tampa Bay in two weeks for Super Bowl XLIII.

Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in two hard-fought; tightly contest games, by scores of 23-20 and 13-9 respectively. In both instances, the Ravens out-rushed the Steelers by a fairly generous margin (107.5 vs 80 yards), but came up short in the passing game, which could make the difference again. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 180 passing yards against Baltimore’s defense in two meetings compared to rookie Joe Flacco coming in at exactly 50 yards less at 130. Ultimately, this may once again be the deciding factor in who will represent the AFC west Florida.

The last time division rivals met in a conference championship was 1999 season, when fourth seed Tennessee traveled to Jacksonville, who was the top seed in the AFC and whipped them 33-14, completing a three-game sweep that season, which led to Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore has had unfathomable year, winning and covering 11 of its last 13 games, thanks to a good running game, a passing game that makes just enough completions to matter and a defense that leaves black and blue marks so deep, it looks like a tattoo even weeks later. The hard hitting and ball hawking nature shows itself in the turnover margin. Since losing three in a row to start the year 2-3, Baltimore is an unimaginable +24, including a +7 differential in the playoffs.

Even having the double revenge angle, this will a difficult assignment for the Ravens. Begin with this being their 17 consecutive game, as they were forced to take unwanted bye in Week 2, no thanks to Hurricane Ike. No less than eight defensive players will appear on this week’s injury report, though all are expected to play, how well is another matter. For cliché purposes, games are won on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet, yet in two playoff games, the Ravens have been out-gained 667-397. Nevertheless, they will arrive in the Steel City 11-2 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh comes in as healthy as they have been all season, with Willie Parker fresh, Big Ben showing no affects of concussion and the league’s best defense as ferocious as ever. Bettors flocked to Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, taking the Steelers from 4.5-point favorites to current six, with total of 34. The Steelers know exactly what to expect from the Ravens and understand ball protection will be tantamount. In Pittsburgh’s four losses, they had three or more turnovers in three defeats and were 13-1 and 10-4 ATS in all other games. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh is just 9-8 ATS as home favorite in the playoffs, hoping to advance to second Super Bowl in four years. The higher seed has advanced to the big game in five of the last six years (4-2 ATS) in the AFC title game, with the lone exception being a sixth seed (Pittsburgh in 2005), just like Baltimore is.

What you Need to Know

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to do virtually the same thing. They both will want to run and control the line of scrimmage. This sets up play-action passing game and each will be unafraid to take deep shots down the field. Because of the similarities, the difference could be the experienced player under center.

Both defenses are menacing and will want to funnel the action towards their strengths, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis for Baltimore and James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh. Will the road finally wear out the Ravens?

Key System- In the Conference Finals, Play Against any team this is an underdog, if they were an underdog in last game. (20-12 ATS)