Four Conference titles on the line Monday night

Tonight, the soon to be assembled field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament will add four more teams with automatic bids, as four conferences will play their championship games in televised tilts. While some of these teams don’t register immediately for the common fan, the sharp sports bettor has a vast knowledge of all eight competing teams and will want to take notes of the winner of each championship and determine if they any chance of pulling a first round upset, if so designated.

West Coast Championship 9:00E ESPN

The most recognizable squad playing tonight is Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS). The Bulldogs are going to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome this evening and are making their 12 consecutive appearance in the WCC championship, attempting to knock down their 10th title in that span. Gonzaga has three very good players, all with NBA-type ability. Matt Bouldin and Duke’s Jon Scheyer are the most complete guards in the country, able to score or set up teammate for basket seemingly at will.

“We come into this every year and want to win it,” said Bouldin, the conference player of the year. “We want to be playing our best game going into the NCAA tournament. Winning this thing is everything.”

Running mate Steve Gray also has all-around skills in the backcourt and the player that helped put Gonzaga back in the Top 25 despite heavy personnel losses is freshman Elias Harris, who has 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds in two wins over St. Mary’s. Gonzaga has covered eight straight against teams with winning record.

The Gaels (25-5) work is not done; with most knowledgeable experts with how the field is chosen believing St. Mary’s has to win to be in. If left up to sports bettors, the Gaels would already be in with their ultra-profitable 19-9-1 ATS record. However their wins are largely unimpressive and two of their losses have to Gonzaga by scores of 7 and 19, failing to cover either time. St. Mary’s knows center Omar Samhan will deliver, averaging 26.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, however points from the backcourt is paramount and getting Ben Allen in scoring mode. The Gaels are 18-0 SU when the Aussie reaches double figures and he’s averaged just 7.5 points in two outings.

Gonzaga is the betting choice at DiamondSportsbook.com, favored by 3.5-points with total of 146. Like usual, it will be difficult to bet against the Zags, as favorites are 59-30 ATS in this tourney since 1998, including 4-2 ATS this year. St. Mary’s needs prayers, since they are 0-8 ATS as neutral site underdogs.

Colonial Athletic Championship 7:00E ESPN

The CAA went more according to form than expected with regular season champion Old Dominion (25-8, 12-16-1 ATS) facing William and Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS). The top-seeded Monarchs almost didn’t make this destination, forced to double overtime by Virginia Commonwealth yesterday, escaping 73-69 as two point favorites. Gerald Lee’s 26 points and Ben Finney’s huge three-point with 67 seconds left in the second overtime was the deciding edge. ODU has covered six of last eight as chalk.

William and Mary is the fifth seed and has had two close calls, narrowly knocking off James Madison in first game and squeaking by Northeastern 47-45 on Sunday as five point underdogs. The Tribe is 12-6 and 11-6 ATS away from home, but has lost both meetings to ODU. William and Mary is seeking first ever NCAA bid and will have to shoot well and block-out on the boards, since they lack the athleticism to go up and down with Old Dominion. They are 16-5 ATS as underdogs.

The Monarchs are favored by nine-points and the favorite has won this event nine straight times with 6-2-1 ATS record. Before believing Old Dominion is automatic, consider their 3-13 ATS record at neutral sites.

MAAC Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A few of the lower seeds pulled off upsets in the early rounds, but once the semi-finals began, the cream rose to the top. Siena (26-6, 16-12-2 ATS) was once again the league champion and takes on the club that finished right behind them in the standings, Fairfield (22-9, 14-11 ATS). The Saints will enjoy a decided advantage playing on their home floor at Times Union Center, where they are 14-0 (5-6-1 ATS) this season. Siena is making their fourth straight trip to the title games and has won each of the last two years. Seniors Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are the bell-cows for the Saints who are 7-3 ATS facing a club with a winning record.

Fairfield showed the oddsmakers they deserved more respect, taking down Niagara 69-63 as 1.5-point underdogs yesterday, in spite of being higher seed. The Stags offense is spearheaded by Derek Needham and Anthony Johnson and they will have to come up big since Fairfield has lost twice to Siena this campaign. The Stags did cover the number once in their matchups and is 9-4 ATS on the road this season.

Fairfield is catching eight points, with total of 138 and underdogs of 4.5 or more points are 5-43 and 19-28-1 ATS in this tourney. The road team is 8-1 ATS in previous nine tries.

Southern Championship 9:00E ESPN2

There will be a new champion in the Southern Conference with the departure of Stephen Curry from Davidson. It seem fitting it should end this way as division kings Wofford (25-8, 15-11-2 ATS) and Appalachian State (22-11, 17-8 ATS) do battle. This is Wofford’s first ever appearance in the championship game and they come in riding a 12-game winning streak (5-5-2 ATS). Noah Dahlman leads the Terriers at 17 points per game and if reserve Terry Martin can drain 17 points off the bench like he did in the semis, Wofford has a real opportunity to cover the four-point favorite role they have been given.

Appalachian State is out to win their first SoCon crown since 2000. The Mountaineers are paced by leading scorer Donald Sims and they might need a similar eruption from Kelly Brand, who scored a career-high 37 points last evening against the College of Charleston, converting five of six three-point shots.

Appalachian State is on a real spread roll with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 and is 104 ATS away from home.

Colonial and WCC Conference Wagering Previews

The college conference action starts to build in earnest today with four more gearing up for action, to go along with those that have commenced. Our focus is on two that will have a championship game on ESPN this coming Monday night, the Colonial and West Coast conferences. Both leagues feature teams that have enjoyed NCAA tournament success and should have highly competitive events. In addition, we have some of the top wagering information on each conference, so let’s move ahead in these exciting days of March.

Colonial Athletic Association Preview

The CAA has enjoyed another exciting campaign and this year’s postseason tourney is sure to match. Five teams have a legitimate chance to be crowned champs with one more lurking on the outside. Old Dominion (23-8, 10-16-1 ATS) was the regular season champion, thanks in part to unblemished (15-0) home record. What is concern about the Monarchs is they don’t shoot the ball that well (44.8 percent), with many of their baskets coming on offensive rebounds as put-backs. This would seem to make them vulnerable. Northeastern (19-11, 15-13-1 ATS) doesn’t come in playing well, having lost three of last six (0-6 ATS) and not playing typically tough defense. George Mason (17-13, 11-15-1 ATS) has been in the finals the last three years and though talented, are very young, which could make them finalist or one and done.

Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 13-12 -1 ATS) has won the CAA tourney two of the last three years and has center Larry Sanders, who can be domineering player. The Rams style of pressure defense is disruptive and they have pedigree for this event, plus the advantage of playing in their home town of Richmond. William & Mary (20-9, 15-9-1 ATS) has been in the conference chase all season, however this is new territory for them, though they have the league’s best road record at 10-6 and 10-5 ATS. If you want a good long shot, try Hofstra (18-13, 14-14-1 ATS), they’ve won nine of 10 and are 9-3-1 ATS in true road games.

Betting notes- Favorites of less than 10 points have been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since 2002, sporting 40-19 ATS record…. Underdogs of 10 or more points are an unbelievable of late, showing mediocre 2-15 SU record but astonishing 15-2 ATS (88.2 percent) mark since 2003….Total players can cash with bankroll building 37-17 UNDER record in the last six years. … In the championship game, the favored team has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75 percent).

Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Hofstra final

West Coast Conference Preview

This is one of the most dependable tournaments in determining at least one of the teams to be in the finals. Gonzaga (25-5, 14-10-2 ATS) has been the class of the WCC for years and has been a finalist every year since 1998, being the champions nine times. They will again be heavily favored, playing in Las Vegas again, with the matter of whom their opponent might be.
St. Mary’s (24-5, 18-9-1 ATS) and Portland (20-9, 14-10-1 ATS) are presumed to be the only two candidates worthy and the Bulldogs have won and covered against them in four tries this season. The Gaels and Pilots are expected to square off a third time in the semis, with each having won on their home court.

St. Mary’s would appear to have the edge with 10-3 SU road record (9-3 ATS) and difference-maker like center Omar Samhan in the paint. The Gaels are not a lock, as Portland has a good club and knows the only way to make NCAA Tournament is winning the West Coast tourney. Should these teams meet as expected, there matchup on ESPN2 Sunday night might be better than the finals.

Betting Notes -Favorites of seven or more are 27-0 SU and 19-8 ATS in the WCC tournamentsince 1998….Favorites own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the last 12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) record in Round One….Neutral floor chalk of seven points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4 percent) in the WCC tournament since 1998….Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since 2001, are 10-1 OVER the number.

Prediction: Gonzaga and Portland final

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Conference Tournament Pointspread Tendencies

As with any other type of game in college basketball betting, certain trends or tendencies form in the conference tournaments. These annual events are loaded with tradition and offer, in some cases, nearly identical circumstances from one year to the next. This is the type of foundation from which successful betting systems are built. Think about it, in many leagues, some of the teams, depending upon their seedings, will play at home. In other leagues, all the games are in a neutral environment. Some of the games are on multiple consecutive days, while in others, the schedules tend to favor the better teams. It all adds up to what should be a goldmine of data from which to dig. Let’s see what we can uncover for this first group of conference tournaments starting this week. Next week, I’ll be back to cover more of the major conferences.

Horizon League

*Since ’06, FAVORITES have held the upper hand in Horizon League Tournament games, going 21-12 ATS (63.6%).
*Horizon League FAVORITES playing on their home court in the conference tournament are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since ’06.
*The last 20 Horizon League Tournament FAVORITES of 7-points or more have won outright and are 14-6 ATS (70%).
*Horizon League tournament games have been high scoring than expected of late, with the OVER the total going 21-13 (61.7%) over the L4 seasons.

Ohio Valley Conference

*UNDERDOGS have held a slight edge in the last five seasons of Ohio Valley Conference Tournament action, going 18-15 ATS (54.5%).
*The most successful UNDERDOGS in the OVC tournament are those that reach the semifinal round, as they are 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%) since ’05, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS the L2 years. * Only one UNDERDOG of 6.5-points or more has pulled an upset in the OVC Tournament since ’02, going 1-27 SU. However, these teams are 14-14 ATS (50%).

Missouri Valley Conference

*The Missouri Valley Conference has seen some significant trends develop by round. In the Opening Round games, UNDERDOGS are a profitable 11-11 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.6%) since ’98. *In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 ATS (70%) over the last five seasons.
*There have been 11 instances since ’04 where a LOWER SEEDED MVC tourney team was FAVORED. They are just 3-8 SU & ATS (27.3%) in that span.
*Large FAVORITES, or those laying 7-points or more have been very successful in the MVC tourney of late, 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since ’02.
*Since the MVC Tournament games started having totals on every contest (’05), the UNDER the total has dominated at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.

Colonial Athletic Association

*The Colonial Athletic Association tournament has shown some strong trends dependent upon the round of play. In the Quarterfinals, UNDERDOGS are just 5-15 SU but on a 13-7 ATS (65%) run over the L5 seasons. In the Championship, the FAVORITE has won nine straight games while going 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
*DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS have been an unbelievable cover in the CAA tournament of late, going 2-15 SU but 15-2 ATS (88.2%) since ’03.
*FAVORITES of less than 10-points have also been a highly profitable bet in the CAA tournament since ’02, going 40-19 ATS (67.8%).
*UNDER has been the flavor of choice on totals for CAA tournament games, with a bankroll-building 37-17 (68.5%) mark since ’04.

Sun Belt Conference

*Like a few of the other conferences already discussed, the Sun Belt Conference has shown some distinctive tendencies by round. In the opening round, UNDERDOGS have covered eight of 10 games (80%) over the L2 years.

*In the semifinals, FAVORITES are on a run of 7-3 ATS.
*SMALL FAVORITES of 3-points or less have produced a 16-9 ATS (64%) record in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament since ’02.
*Totals have shown a favoritism towards the OVER in the L5 Sun Belt Conference tournaments, going 35-20 (63.6%).

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

*FAVORITES have had their way in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament of late, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’04.
*UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more have only won five of the L44 MAAC tournament opportunities they’ve had while going 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%).
*Where offense has ruled the day in the MAAC Semifinals (7-1 OVER L4 years), defense has taken over the title game (6-1 UNDER L7).

Southern Conference

*Despite a 3-7 ATS mark in the 2007 Southern Conference Tournament, UNDERDOGS have held the upper hand in the league’s postseason proceedings, going 26-21 ATS (55.3%) since ’05.
*The early Southern Conference Tournament action has shown the most distinctive trends forming, with FAVORITES 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since ’02, and the UNDER 14-3 (82.3%) since ’04 in the Opening Round.
*Those favorites that survive the Opening Round of the Southern Conference Tournament also tend to fare well in the Quarterfinals, as UNDERDOGS in that round are on a 12-6 ATS (66.7%) run since ’05.
*Like the CAA, Southern Conference Tournament games have shown a strong UNDER tendency, going 36-17 (67.9%) on that side of the total since ’05.

West Coast Conference

*The West Coast Conference Tournament has been dominated by FAVORITES since ’98 to the tune of a 55-28 ATS (66.3%) record.
*FAVORITES own the edge in every round of the West Coast Conference Tournament over the L12 seasons, highlighted by a 10-3 ATS (76.9%) record in Round One.
*Neutral court FAVORITES of 7-points or more are 27-0 SU & 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in the WCC tournament since ’98.
*Oddsmakers have hinted which games in the WCC tournament have been high scoring, as on those with totals of 146 or higher since ’01, OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%).

Big Sky Conference

*The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
*There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
*The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
*FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Summit League

This year’s Summit League Tournament will be the first one where games beyond the championship will be lined. In the previous two title games, the FAVORITE is 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS.

Mid-American Conference

*FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
*The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
*Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
*The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
*OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

By Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Making Sense of Numbers in Revenge Games

With less then two weeks remaining in the regular reason for college basketball, nearly every game has a revenge twist to it. Some of the bigger conferences will not have every game playing into pay back contests, with the unruly nature of trying to play most every team once, with leagues of more than 12 universities. In fact, the Mid-American Conference to date has not had a single return match this season.

In looking for an edge in gambling on college basketball, trying to comprehend what certain numbers mean from the oddsmakers is important. For example, if two teams in the same conference are evenly matched, the standard deviation should have the home team favored by four to five points, depending on the league and what a typical home court advantage would be. This would mean any normal return game should have a swing of eight to 10 points. When this doesn’t occur, what does this mean?

If a team was favored by 10 points playing at home and is now favored by eight on the road (instead of about two), how should this information be interpreted? Was the favorite undervalued to start with or has the other team gotten worse and needs more points from those setting the line to make a more even contest from wagering point of view?

For this and other answers, went thru every conference that keeps track of point spreads and limited all revenge situations to in-conference only. (Random tournaments and scheduled games did pop up) Stayed with the standard deviation of 8-10 points, also added revenge games where the spread was 7.5 or less or 10.5 or greater.

The specific question was -how do teams perform in following meeting after having beaten their opponent, be it home or away, against the spread? Ended up studying the results of 21 conferences and this is what was found thru Feb. 23.

Starting with the normal turnaround numbers of 8-10 points, the first time winner was not very successful in posting 91-104 ATS record, good for 46.6 percent mark. This is not entirely surprising given the fact the numbers fell within conventional parameters. If the two schools are somewhat comparable, then it would stand to reason the more motivated previous loser would play better. Certain conference contributed more to the losing than others as you can see.

Big 12 1-6 ATS
Horizon 3-7 ATS
Ivy 1-5 ATS
Sun Belt 4-8 ATS
WAC 2-5 ATS
West Coast 1-4-1 ATS

Each of the other two categories essentially generated the same meanings, depending on how you interpret the numbers; however the volume of games was dramatically different.

The spread differential of 7.5 or less points yielded 189 games almost as many as what was perceived as average point spread differences. (195) In this case, the results again favored the team in revenge, even to a greater degree. The revenge-minded club was 104-85 ATS, 55 percent. Why this number could be higher, is the results of the initial contest might not have accurately reflected the strengths or weakness of the two teams and enough has changed since prior encounter to limit the amount of movement in the spread.

Here we find sharp figures pointing pronounced results in particular conferences, with teams looking a for season split very profitable.

Big Ten 7-3 ATS
Big West 8-1 ATS
Colonial 6-1 ATS

Nevertheless, the numbers are balanced out is some method and other leagues saw the previous winning team covering the spread in next contest.

Ohio Valley 11-7-1 ATS
Pac-10 8-5 ATS
WAC 2-0 ATS

Spread differentials that were greater than 10 points were less than half, with a total of 89 recognized plays. The results were remarkably similar to the other groups, with the revenger 48-41 ATS, 54 percent.

In this part of the study, two conferences stood out for different reasons. In the Colonial, the winning team looking for a cover was 0-4 ATS, while the same squad in the Pac-10 was an even better going the other way at 6-0 ATS.

For the rest of the regular season, look to certain conferences which have had a proclivity to revenge situations. Here are the best and worst records against the linemaker for teams trying to sweep league rivals and cover the number.

Colonial 9-22 ATS
Horizon 13-20 ATS
Ivy 3-8-1 ATS
MAAC 13-21-1 ATS
WAC 9-14 ATS
West Coast 6-12-1 ATS

Pac-10 19-7-1 ATS
Big Sky 16-10 ATS

Keep these numbers handy over the next several days and remember, revenge is best served with a purpose.

Hunting for Hoops Winners Can Be Done

With football over for yet another season, unless the Pro Bowl is part of your betting plans, it is time to turn full attention to college basketball wagering. With Wednesday, Thursday and especially Saturday cards often cumbersome because of the sheer volume of games, it can be wise to shave the number of contests down to more manageable numbers. How this can be accomplished is finding particular conferences that have proven to have value.

By now, every league is either at or halfway past the midpoint of conference slate and solid information can be found to utilize for wagering purposes. Three conferences in particular have yielded distinct info, which should be followed, with the intent of cashing in for significant profits.

The Sun Belt Conference is like a few other leagues in college landscape. The Big Ten has 11 teams, the Atlantic 10 has 14 squads and Denver U. and North Texas (Denton) would hardly be considered part of anybody’s list of vacation spots in the Sun Belt region. Fortunately, the goal isn’t to be like the late George Carlin and make sense of the arrangement, instead just to study the facts.

Presently, the Sun Belt ranks 19th in the latest Sagarin Ratings in college hoops among the 33 conferences. With the SBC a bit unwieldy with its 13 teams, certain numbers can be skewed in determining different factors. For example, a conference with vast number of universities could see the records of home team wins watered-down by those occupying the lower regions. The Big East is a perfect example of this, with the division between the have’s and have-nots, roughly the size of our domestic and foreign trade imbalance.

Sun Belt home teams have won 63 percent of conference games (41-24) which is about average overall. This is where things get interesting. Only one team in the league has a defense that allows below 40 percent shooting (39.8), and that is Arkansas State who comes in at 13-8 and .500 in league play.

Thus we establish the SBC is not a great defensive league, which leads to the profit point we are seeking. Sun Belt home teams cough up the cash with great regularity, sporting a 23-41-1, 35.9 ATS mark. With just a few better teams like Western Kentucky, Ark-Little Rock and Middle Tenn. State, the rest are pedestrian, with no atrocious teams, save Florida Atlantic.

This looks to be a real opportunity, with one caveat. Denver University, year in, year out, is one of the toughest stops in the Sun Belt because of the altitude. This season the Pioneers are 4-1 SU and ATS in league action playing at Magness Arena. Subtract Denver’s wins and are wager on SBC road teams improves.

The Western Athletic Conference from time to time makes some noise and is ranked 13th by the Sagarin numbers. Utah State has just one blemish on the docket this season, losing to BYU. In truth, the rest of the conference record-wise leaves much to be desired. Nevada and Boise State are both not as strong as a year ago and the rest of the other six schools are at or below .500.

In league play, the home teams have among the worst records in all of college basketball, with a 20-15 record (57.1 percent). In studying the WAC’s numbers, all the teams are ordinary to slight better than average defensively, and offensively, most teams shoot the ball relatively well. The point is, other than Utah State, every team is capable of beating another home or away. This presents a splendid opportunity to play against home teams who are 12-23 against the spread.

Earlier, imbalance was mentioned in different conferences, where the best teams are Dick Vitale “Flat-out superior”. This appears to be the case in the Colonial Athletic Association, where Northeastern, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel are far above the rest, especially playing on the own courts.

These four teams have compiled a 20-3 record in league play at home and are sensational 17-6 ATS against all CAA comers, including playing among themselves.

In these recessionary times, we all have to work a little harder to have what we need and as this proves; the extra work can place more money in your pocket.