MLB Series Wagering- Cardinals at Reds

This is the time of the year when baseball really starts to get fun because there is attractive matchups like this one that has meaningful significance to the pennant races. Almost the entire season, the echoes have reverberated San Diego and Cincinnati (64-48, +13.7 units) were a great baseball story, but eventually they would come back to earth and be the mediocre teams most expected back in March. With eight weeks to go in the regular season, barring a Sands hotel-like collapse, the first place Reds aren’t going anywhere.

Cincinnati’s unemployment rate is hovering at 10 percent, but for the first time in years, the baseball team is providing a positive distraction, in a town known as a great baseball community. The Reds return home off a 5-1 divisional road trip and lead St. Louis (61- 49, -6.1) by one game in the loss column and are 11-4 since July 23, including winning nine of last 11, in which they’ve outscored the opposition 70-33. “It’s time,” manager Dusty Baker said. “They (the players) had been wanting us to focus on it but we had to focus on the Cubs. To come in here and get a sweep in Chicago (first time in five years) is big for us.”

The Cardinals are top heavy and manager Tony LaRussa knows it. If St. Louis is going to repeat as division champions, they have to play better on the road (23-31) and get more out of the back end of the rotation. For this series in the Queen City, St. Louis come fully prepared with Chris Carpenter, Jamie Garcia and Adam Wainwright as the scheduled pitchers for the Redbirds. This terrific trio is 45-24 in games they’ve started, the best in baseball.

Carpenter (12-3, 2.91 ERA) will look to get St. Louis off to a good start in the series and he has been on top of his game. The right-hander is 3-0 in last five starts (all Cardinals’ wins), with undersized ERA of 1.64. Carpenter has three wins already this season against the Reds and is 10-3 with 1.96 ERA lifetime against Cincy. Sportsbooks have St. Louis as -133 money line favorites with total Ov7.5 for this ESPN 7:10 Eastern telecast and Carpenter and the Cards are is 9-1 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season, winning by two runs per contest.

The Reds counter with their rookie Mike Leake (7-3, 3.86), who after a sensational start, might be tiring, having lost last two starts and been hit hard. His earned run average in those defeats is 7.94 and Cincinnati is 6-15 at home after a win by win six runs or more, like yesterday’s 11-4 crushing of the Cubs. That number overlaps Baker teams that frankly were not very good and this Reds bunch is 24-11 after allowing four runs or less three straight games this year.

Game 1 Edge: St. Louis

The second game of the series brings elements relating to both clubs. St. Louis knows it can leave town atop the NL Central with a sweep and might not have to look back in doing so. The task is fundamentally difficult since Cincinnati has not been swept at Great American Ball Park in more than a year, falling to Colorado over three days in late July over early August.

Granted, Albert Pujols hits against everybody, but coming into this series he’s hot even by his own standards, having gone 16 for 32 with five homers and 11 RBIs in the last seven contests. Against Cincy this campaign he’s hitting .381 with three homers and 12 RBIs. Left-hander Jamie Garcia (9-5, 2.53) got two extra days off between starts after his worst outing of the season (8 runs and 10 hits over five innings) and manager LaRussa hopes that is the right tonic to get the young pitcher back to form. The Cards are 5-1 in Garcia’s last six starts against winning squads.

Cincinnati has been battering lefties of late with 16-5 mark. Reds starter Johnny Cueto (11-2, 3.24) has been devastating with 5-1 record and 1.55 ERA over his past nine starts. Don’t expect St. Louis to load up with LH hitters, as they are only batting .221 against Cueto, compared to RH batters who hitting .274. The Reds are 6-1 in previous seven Game 2’s outings and have won all five in that exact same situation in which Cueto was the starting pitcher.

Game 2 Edge: Cincinnati

The final contest of the series is a day time affair, with Adam Wainwright trading pitches with Bronson Arroyo. Wainwright (16-6, 2.07) often is the second fiddle of the St. Louis staff, but know this, he’s only the second hurler in the Cardinals storied history to have 16 victories and an ERA that low in 24 starts to begin a season. The other is Hall of Fame great Bob Gibson. The Redbirds are 21-18 in day games and if they are favored by -200 or less with Wainwright the pitcher, the Cards are 8-0.

Arroyo (12-6. 3.83) is in the Top 20 of units won at +6.4 in baseball. His career shows a pitcher who runs like a Moet faucet, hot or cold. He’s being scalding with 2.62 ERA in previous 10 starts and has not given up a run in consecutive starts. His changing speeds on his curveball has been wicked, with batters hitting a meek .177 against him. He and the Reds are 6-2 as underdogs and 22-18 under natural light.

Game 3 Edge: Cincinnati

Had my string of five series wins in a row snapped last week; however I feel I get back on track here. The Cardinals have the pitching edge with their exceptional starters, yet they 2-7 in road series since May and are 9-17 in traveling gray uniforms. The play here is the excited home underdog with a lot to prove and Cincinnati builds on lead by Wednesday evening.

Sportsbooks series odds: St. Louis -135, Cincinnati +105

3Daily Winners Pick: Cincinnati

Bring Back Steroids to Baseball!

I mean it; let these baseball players start taking something again. O.K. roids are illegal in baseball but some chemist dude has to cooking up something with a masking agent that could bring the power back to baseball. Jose Bautista of Toronto leads the big leagues with 18 home runs. Back when Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jose Canseco played, those guys and even a freakin’ Brady Anderson could hit that many in a month. In the National League, Cory Hart leads with 15 homers, that is less than 45 for the entire season from the leading masher.

I used to watch Sports Center and Baseball Tonight religiously knowing I’d get my fill of long blasts of 400+ feet with guys having bulging biceps, necks bigger than their oversized 8 ¾ hats and enough acne that Clearsil could carry my stock portfolio.

Now you get the occasional long ball, hitters going the other way with a pitch for a single and even the worst of all, showing guys moving the runner to another base to help SET-UP another run to be scored. No wonder I bought Captain Morgan’s Long Island Iced Tea.

Betting baseball totals has become a joke. The oddsmakers spotted the trend last year and immediately began posting lower numbers from a season ago. The average posted total is more than five percent lower than a year ago and runs scored and home runs are their lowest in over a decade. Even with the reduction of totals numbers, the Under is still 842-784, 51.7. I know San Diego’s pitching has been incredible this year with the fewest runs allowed at 3.3 per game and they play in the second largest expanse other than the Grand Canyon, but come on, they have had more totals of six (2) than anything above 7.5 (none) at Petco (Death Valley) Park.

Remember the good old days when you wagered against the oddsmakers at Coors Field? Totals of 11.5 to 13 were common before humidors. Sadly, Colorado has only had three games of 10.5 or higher all season at their Rocky Mountains home. I know the Rockies are better with the likes of Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez, but I sure miss Dante Bichette, Larry Walker and 1,000 Colorado pitchers who never got anybody out. Let the baseball’s breathe and dry out in Colorado for more runs to be scored.

Besides where did all the hitting stars disappear to? Bautista and Hart leading their respective leagues in home runs, where is Albert Pujols, Mark Reynolds, David Ortiz and A-Rod. I understand they are close, but who is talking about Alex Rodriguez catching Barry Bonds for the all-time home run lead let alone Hank Aaron as the former long ball king.

I admit it, I used to be a juicer, I had the machine where you put all the fruits and vegetables in it and made it a drink, but after a few months, though I felt better, a friend pointed out to me that I’ll live six months longer than him in a nursing home by doing this.

I like seeing second sacker Kelly Johnson of Arizona with 13 home runs already (16 is career high), that means he’s doing something right to make himself stronger. In fact the D-Backs are my favorite team at 38-19 Over. They are way better than any reality TV show with people screwing up their lives. All the Arizona hitters swing WAY harder than they should, strikeout a ton while hitting enough home runs. And their pitching is so bad the Phoenix Fire Department is a new stadium sponsor with their 7.22 bullpen ERA.

Maybe I’m over-reacting, but when Carlos Silva is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and the Cubs are +10 units with him pitching with their sickly offense, something isn’t right in baseball.

While baseball celebrates the end of the steroids era with the likes of Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and now Stephen Strasburg, plus countless other pitchers that are taking over the game, I’ll be rooting for youngsters like Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and Florida’s Michael Stanton to be the next hitting stars, while dreaming about Harry Caray saying this about another Sosa bomb, “It could be, it might be, IT IS another home run for Sosa!”

Written by Red Wydley who drops by on occasion.

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Cards look to send Milwaukee into vorago

The St. Louis Cardinals are cruising towards their fourth Central Division title and have two legitimate starting pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young this season. In addition, the Cardinals have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and the savvy front office move that delivered Matt Holliday to the city with the Arch was genius. With Holliday in the lineup, the Cardinals (83-57, +13.1 units) have soared, with a Major League best record of 31-11.

Today, one of St. Louis’ top hurlers, Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.68 ERA) will look to become the major’s first 18-game winner and contribute to the sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (66-72, -12.6 units). Before his last outing in which he allowed six runs in five innings, Wainwright had pitched 13 consecutive times conceding two runs or less. The right-hander’s value goes up even higher when you consider he is 10-1 on the road (Cardinals 12-1 in all starts) making a great choice for the postseason. Lifetime, Wainwright is 4-3 against Milwaukee, however this season is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA while allowing 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings against the Brew Crew.

Last year’s playoff euphoria has given way to frustration in Milwaukee, with a pitching staff unable to carry the load and too many feast or famine hitters in the lineup. The latter has been especially true with the Brewers having lost six of last eight, and totaling six hits or less in five of last six outings.

Jeff Suppan (6-8, 4.97) will be the Milwaukee starter and he’s 1-0 with 2.81 ERA since coming off the disabled list and he’s 7-3 in 14 starts against his old team.

Oddsmakers like those at DiamondSportsbook.com are unimpressed with Suppan’s recent pitching, looking at the bigger picture of how both teams are playing. They have installed St. Louis as -190 money line favorites, with the total at Ov8.5. Here is another very lucrative reason to think about the Cardinals today.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, a cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smoking starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since the 2005 season began, this has been one of the most reliable baseball systems you will find anywhere at 70-5 (that is correct) 93.3 percent. This has further been backed with the underdog a perfect 12-0 this year, when it comes to losing. If you still have even an inkling of doubt, take into consideration Wainwright and the Redbirds are 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and Suppan is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

Wagering on the Home Run Derby

Over the weekend an unofficial poll was taken and 52+ percent of the people given the choice between watching the All-Star game or the Home Run Derby preferred to watch the latter. While that fits nicely into Major League baseball wanting to promote the entire event, the folks at FOX Sports can’t be crazy about the outcome.

The Home Run Derby is meaningless fun and eight contestants have been chosen, here is a breakdown of what to look for, with odds courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

Albert Pujols (+200)

Baseball’s best player will have a few inherent advantages, with one being in his own home park and being able to stay emotionally charged with fan support. Pujols is a legitimate Triple Crown threat, leading the National League in home runs (32), runs batted in (87) and fourth in batting average (.332). Pujols should hit over 50 home runs for the first time in his career and will try to not alter his swing too much to win this contest, not wanting to mess with it after coming out of mild slump. The Redbird first baseman is odds-on favorite to win after making semis two seasons ago and runner-up in 2003.

Ryan Howard (+250)

The 2006 champion is tied for fifth in the National League with 22 dingers and will have fan support at Busch Stadium, being a Missouri native. Howard’s bat has been a trifle slower in 2009, but his uppercut swing against beach ball tosses is tailor-made for this event. His biggest worry is being too jacked-up and expending a great deal of energy early.

Adrian Gonzalez (+500)

Gonzalez is the first Padre to being in this event since 1992, when Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield were participants and the game was in San Diego. Gonzalez is tied for second in the senior circuit with 24 home runs and his 67 walks in 88 games is sure to double, being San Diego’s only true threat in the lineup. The easy-going first baseman could make a name for himself in winning The Derby, since it will be the only time you will hear or see him based on the Friars play this season.

Prince Fielder (+500)

After failing to hit 40 home runs last season, Fielder is back on pace in 2009 and has to be darkhorse for this competition. He has the power to compete and like Howard has natural uppercut swing. His downfall could be the heat and humidity of St. Louis and using up a lot of energy early and not having much in the tank if he would make the final round.

Brandon Inge (+1200)

This is turning out to be quite a season of change of Inge. After being the Detroit catcher in the middle of 2008 campaign, Inge was moved back to his more normal third base position to improve Tigers defense. Though not a noted power hitter, Inge has 21 long balls this season, playing for division leader and was voted on by the fans to make the All-Star game. He probably more than anyone knows his hard work has paid off in good fortune and will be excited about gaining notoriety. Definite long shot.

Joe Mauer (+800)

Mauer’s inclusion in the Home Run Derby is somewhat mystery based on volume; however this could be a precursor of things to come. Mauer leads the Major Leagues in hitting with .373 batting average. He has a career high 15 homers at the break, despite playing in only 64 games due to missing the first few weeks of the season. At 26, he starting to show the track of top notch player whose power numbers go up with age. He’ll be trying to two in a row for Minnesota players, as he is the other half of the M&M boys, with Justin Morneau last year’s champion.

Nelson Cruz (+600)

The most exciting player in last’s year Home Run Derby was Josh Hamilton of Texas, who was too tired to finish the deal after putting on a memorable show early on. Nelson Cruz has 22 shots that have cleared fences this season and Cruz has stated he expects to be in the thick of the action, though doesn’t see himself hitting 28 in the first round like Hamilton his last season.

Carlos Pena (+600)

The American League’s leading home run hitter is truly honored to make the team as replacement for Dustin Pedroia, who instead went to be with pregnant wife. Pena has found a home in Tampa Bay and the slugging first baseman has 24 home runs and is another darkhorse, if he can keep emotions in check.

Winner –Albert Pujols
Runner up - Carlos Pena

Monday Baseball Wagering Action

Besides a makeup game on tap today, three other games are on the baseball docket. Each has its own story to tell, here is what each looks like tonight to the sports bettor on a sleepy Monday.

Cardinals in control

St. Louis (39-31, +2.7 units) has reeled of three consecutive wins and eight of last 11, to take over first place in the NL Central. The Cards bats crushed Kansas City pitching for 29 runs on 37 hits in sweeping the Royals. The Cardinals were led by, who else, Albert Pujols, who abused K.C., with three home runs and 10 runs batted in. “It’s nothing special. I’m just seeing good pitches and hitting them,” Pujols said. That’s what Kansas City pitchers thought also.

New York (34-33, -2.3 units) has lost four series in a row, in compiling 4-8 record and will look to turn things around quickly. Mets pitching has been in the tank, conceding a hair over six runs per game and when they get a better effort like Johan Santana provided Saturday, the bats go deathly silent in 3-1 loss. The only good news comes from the fact New York is 8-0 having lost four of their last five games this season. They will send a shaky Tim Redding (0-2, 6.27) to the mound.

The Redbirds are slight -108 favorites with total Un9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com. They are 31-19 vs. teams with a good bullpen, whose ERA is 3.75 or better. Todd Wellemeyer (6-6, 5.36) gets the call and New York is 11-17 (-17.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last three seasons. ESPN2 will have the coverage at 7:10 Eastern.

Colorado is Hot Hot Hot

The 1970’s punk band, New York Dolls, have reunited recently with some of its original members, including front man David Johansen. For a time in the late 80’s, Johansen, repackaged himself as pseudonym Buster Poindexter and was part of the Saturday Night Live house band. He later recorded his one and only hit, which completely describes the Colorado Rockies at the moment - Hot Hot Hot. Colorado (36-33, +4.8 units) is on 16-1 roll to move into third place in the NL West, picking up +17.7 units of profit in the process. The Rockies are 16-4 in June and will start Aaron Cook (6-3, 4.23) against a team who had almost as hot.

The Los Angeles Angels (36-31, +5.5 units) had won seven straight before losing last two games to cross-town rival Dodgers. The Angels will start Matt Palmer (6-0, 4.13) who has won just once in last four starts. The Angels are hoping the journeyman Palmer can keep changing speeds and be effective and improve Angels record to 51-31 having lost two of their last three games.
The Halos are -113 money line favorites and Cook and Rockies are 6-0 in road games after two or more consecutive wins.

Bay Area Battle

The Oakland A’s (30-38, -5.8 units) are happy to return home after 3-6 interleague road trip, which started with three losses against tonight’s opponent San Francisco. The A’s are a tremendous 73-36 at home in interleague action and are keeping fingers crossed rookie Trevor Cahill (4-5, 3.89) can help turn around their fortunes.

San Francisco (37-31, +6.3) has shown multiple personalities of late, sweeping Oakland and Texas, while being swept by the Angels in the middle grouping of last three series, all at home. The Giants are 13-19 on the road and 18-38 after six or more consecutive home games since the start of 2007 campaign. Struggling Jonathan Sanchez 2-7, 5.43) will climb the hill for San Fran, who are +139 underdogs.

Oakland took the series over San Diego over the weekend; however is miserable 6-17 having won two of three in 2009.

Betting Baseball with numbers that matter

Over the last couple of decades, intelligent baseball fans have moved away from the rudimentary statistics to more thought-provoking and useful numbers. The ideas of batting average and earned run average telling the whole story just isn’t true anymore and we moved ahead to more sophisticated methods of measuring performance.

From the batting perspective, one commonly seen on television and heard on radio broadcasts is on-base percentage. Some may wonder how an on-base percentage is calculated.

You add together hits, walks and hit by pitch and divide that by at bats, walks, hit by pitch and sacrifice flies.

What we learn from on-base percentage is the hitting value of the player to the team. For example, Ted Williams hold the all-time record for OBP for career at .481. Second is Babe Ruth at .474 and others in the top 10 includes Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb. In the top 15 all-time are a couple of modern day players, Todd Helton and Albert Pujols.
Why is OBP valuable to sports bettors?

Start with the fact the easiest way to score runs is having men on base. Former Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver said the best offense play in the game was a three-run homer and while you can’t argue with his logic, two players had to get on base for that to occur. Many of the all-time great pitchers gave up 20 or more home runs a year, even into the 30’s, but they limited damage by having them be solo shots.

On-base percentage means players are willing to help the team. These hitters will take walks, adding to hurlers pitch counts, and play the game the right way, by hitting to opposite field if pitcher works the outside corner continually or with two strikes.

A quick review of the top five teams in Major League Baseball for OBP looks like this.

L.A. Dodgers .374
N.Y. Mets .369
Boston .366
Washington .361 (see pitching numbers)
Toronto .359

Three of these teams are in first place in their respective divisions and the Red Sox are right on the heels of the Blue Jays. Though Manny Ramirez is suspended, his work ethic and attention to detail has rubbed off on his Dodgers teammates. The Mets have been more patient at the dish and are 5th in walks. Boston is just being Boston and Toronto manager Cito Gaston has convinced his team to be more aggressive at the plate, yet be selective at what you swing at. After having doubts, maybe Nationals third-sacker Ryan Zimmerman is correct is saying “….we’re better than our record shows”, however allowing six runs per game puts a great deal of pressure on any offense.

Another aspect to think about is what a quality OBP does to opposing teams pitching staff. The pitch count aspect has already been mentioned for starting pitchers, which transcends into more innings for bullpens. This is an area that is a moving target for many teams from year to year, as teams feel compelled to pay everyday ball players more and will let go of effective reliever over cost concerns.

Drilling down, we find only 10 teams have a bullpen ERA of less than 3.80, suggesting batters going to the plate with an idea to execute could see tasty deliveries coming their way.

Reviewing the other end of the spectrum here are the five worst teams in OBP.

Seattle .307
Arizona .307
San Francisco .314
Oakland .314
San Diego .314

Two of the five clubs are in the bottom five for walks (Mariners and Giants). Only San Francisco has a record above .500, but that has been due to superior starting pitching, led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the possible revitalization of Barry Zito. It would be rare to see Seattle, Oakland and San Diego at the top of this list anyways, since they play in parks conducive to pitching. Nevertheless, all these teams lack talented hitters and the ones on the active roster go up to the plate just hacking, making them easy fodder for pitchers that can hit the right spots.

Arizona is the biggest disgrace, since the core players on the team should be approaching best years. The Snakes have to tie their shoes extra tight, because they swing so hard trying to jack everything over the fence. To this point, the D-Backs hitters have shown no adaptability to wanting to improve and strike out or hit lazy pop-ups and fly balls.

Winning against those setting the line is never easy, but utilizing tools like on-base percentage can keep you in the black.