Can Baylor really make Final Four?

The NCAA Tournament has enjoyed a number storylines this March, with lower seeds pulling off unpredictable upsets and destroying brackets from coast to coast. One story that isn’t getting enough press, but will explode if they win in Houston is the Baylor Bears.

It was just seven years ago Baylor was rocked with a scandal in the death of basketball player Patrick Dennehy. His teammate Carlton Dotson pleaded guilty to the homicide and coach Dave Bliss was believed to be in a cover-up, which also happened to dig up recruiting violations by Bliss, forcing him to resign. The Baylor basketball program was dead.

Scott Drew was told by almost everyone that the Baylor basketball job was a suicide mission for someone young with upward mobility. Drew took the job anyway and what he has accomplished in this short period of time is as good or better than any Cinderella story in March.

Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) has as much physical ability as any team left in the tournament. LaceDarius Dunn is dominant scorer (witness the 23 points vs. St. Mary’s), Tweety Carter can scorch the nets and distribute dimes with regularity. Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers are big bodies around the rim, with Udoh a terrific specimen, just tapping into his potential. The Bears are versatile and have experience and are 12-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season. One more thing, until 10 days ago, the last time Baylor won a NCAA tournament game was 1950. Gulp.

Standing in their way is one of the dominant programs in recent college basketball history (10 Final Four’s under Coach K), the Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 21-14-1 ATS). In what has been an unusual basketball season, even the Duke-haters have been surprisingly quiet. It’s not like the Duke has snuck up on anyone this year, being co-champions of the ACC, winning the conference tournament and elected as a top seed, yet all this has happened with very little clamor.

Maybe it’s because of the Blue Devils failures in the previous couple of tournaments or lack of superstar talent on the roster. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are the three best perimeter players in the country on the balance of the season. None of them carries much of a “wow” factor, yet each is coldly efficient. Even oddsmakers haven’t been able to beat Duke, since they are regularly shaded with additional baggage and they are 10-1 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Where coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team has made the biggest strides is the frontline players add defense and rebounding, two qualities lacking of late. Opposing teams are scoring only 60.5 points per contest against Duke on 40 percent shooting. The combinations of Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers have stifled opposing offenses and the Blue Devils are 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last outing.

Duke is a five-point pick at DiamondSportsbook.com and will be in unfriendly environment, with Houston crowd pro-Baylor. The Dukies are 7-3 ATS as neutral site favorites and 16-6 UNDER after five or more consecutive victories. Baylor will be able to feed off the energy from the crowd and are 9-1 ATS after two games as chalk. Their mission in 2-3 zone is to keep what appears to be a tired Jon Scheyer in shooting slump and control the boards. The Bears are 10-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more this season.

The 1 vs. 3 Elite Eight conflicts show there is not much difference between the teams with 10-8 SU edge for the higher seed. Where separation occurs is when the top seed has won nine of 10 games before the tournament (Duke 12-1 SU), they are 7-2 SU and if the lower seed has inexperienced coach in the Big Dance, they are 2-7 SU.

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 136.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

A Distinct Big East Flavor in East Final

The Big East Conference tested the strong and the weak all season. Every team was required to play 18 games skin-on-skin confrontations, along with the conference tournament. The NCAA tournament committee has gone out of its way to have teams from the same conference not compete unless they should meet in the Final Four, but with the superior quality of the Big East this year, it became impossible to avoid such a situation should the teams arrive.

If No.1 Pittsburgh (31-4, 17-12 ATS) would emerge as national champions, nobody could say it was easy for the Panthers. They have been pushed to the final minutes in all three games and come in a less than intimidating top seed. Pitt doesn’t seem to have the emotional-fire ready, having not covered last four contests and just three of last nine. Any Pittsburgh backer will tell the tournament credo of “survive and advance” is being taken to ridiculous measures, for a team that is 30-15 ATS against teams that have 80 percent or higher win percentage.

At least the Panthers have the revenge card to play, having suffered one of their four losses at the hands of Villanova. In losing 67-57 in Philadelphia, coach Jamie Dixon’s squad was 3-16 from deep, on the way to shooting 40.7 percent and committing 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS revenging a loss.

This is Villanova’s second trip to Elite Eight in four years and they appear more equipped to make first Final Four appearance since 1985, when they played the “perfect” game in upsetting Georgetown for the national title. These Wildcats (29-7, 18-14 ATS) and have tremendous balance. What makes Villanova so difficult to defend is they have seven players each capable of scoring 10 or more points. Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds have to have their points, especially in big games, for the ‘Cats to be 10-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Coach Jay Wright has his players focused on defense and rebounding and opposing teams are paying the price. Duke and UCLA did not have room to execute their halfcourt offenses and were crushed on the boards. In Villanova’s last four contests, they have outrebounded teams 170-119 and are 15-4 ATS after two straight games with an advantage of 10 or more on the glass.
Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite at Betjamaica.com, with total of 142. The first Elite Eight contest is also a 1vs3 matchup and it is worth following, as top seeds have won three in a row, by at least eight points. The total comes into affect on two levels, first, when these seeds have met in this round, the OVER is 7-2 and when the total is less than 145 points; the OVER is spectacular 20-6 ATS.

For Pittsburgh to make first Final Four since 1941, DeJuan Blair and company must stay out of foul trouble and the guards will have to handle the on the ball pressure better.

Villanova has to cause Panthers miscues and take the game right to Pittsburgh from the start. Though the Pitt players have not panicked when falling behind early in all their NCAA games, these ‘Cats are playing very well and far more talented than what they have seen.

No matter what, the Big East will have a representative out of the East region.

Connecticut on Familiar Path in West Regional

Almost two weeks ago when the tournament committee announced Connecticut was headed out West, Huskies fans immediately wondered if fate was setting up for another successful run to the NCAA championship game. After closing the season with two losses to Pittsburgh in the regular season finale and memorable six overtime game with Syracuse in the Big East tournament, a small cloud of doubt was growing larger about Connecticut. Now after three extremely impressive NCAA tournaments wins, talent and fate may be aligned for UConn.

In the 72-60 win over Purdue, Connecticut (30-4, 16-14 ATS) showed its versatility, even when everyone was not having their best game. Forward Jeff Adrien never came close to being a factor; however Stanley Robinson posted a double-double and helped limit the Boilermakers Robbie Hummel with his length.

A.J. Price started slowing for the Huskies, even as they built a significant early lead. Purdue made several runs, but each time senior Craig Austrie made several important baskets, ending up leading his team in scoring with 17 points. Lastly, the nation’s biggest difference-maker, Hasheem Thabeet, added 15 points, snared 15 boards and bothered Purdue countless times and UConn went to 7-1 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season.

Missouri (31-6, 20-10 ATS) has lived up to what the state is known for (Show me state), showing locals and the country the Tigers were much better than advertised. Coach Mike Anderson’s club was picked around seventh in the Big 12 and instead has rolled off a school record 31 victories and reached the Elite Eight for the fourth time in the past 60 years. In upsetting Memphis, the Tigers “out-Memphised” their Tiger counterparts, making steals, running with abandon and taking the mental aspect to them. Just when you thought John Calipari would have Memphis drooling with anxiety to overcome 13-point halftime deficit, Missouri took it 24 points in the second half.

Missouri defensive pressure allows them to rattle good ball-handling teams and they are 16-4 ATS versus clubs committing 14 or less turnovers game this season. An overlooked aspect to the Tigers game is offensive execution. They average 81.6 points per game and led the nation with 18.5 assists per game during the regular season on the way to shooting 47.4 percent, just like Connecticut.

Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets have the Huskies as six-point favorites, with a total of 150. Connecticut has been protecting the ball and is 6-0 ATS after committing 14 or fewer turnovers in three consecutive games; however is just 7-21 ATS away from home after a trio of wins by 10 points or more. Missouri is up to 8-2 ATS in neutral court situations and 8-1 against the number if playing with one or less days rest.

Missouri will have to continue to push the ball and marginalize Thabeet’s presence. The Tigers will want to make Connecticut dribblers to break their press and will have to shore up defense in dribble penetration in the halfcourt as they become more fatigued, with Marquette and Memphis having late game success.

Connecticut has to control the glass and make Missouri be one-and-done on offense. Defensively, play assignments and let Thabeet clean up mistakes. The Tigers are superb at driving and kicking out passes for open shots and running off curl screens.

In this round top seeds 19-13 SU, though 12-18 ATS.