Browns try to add to Pittsburgh's problems

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell in December” after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out “Hell ain’t a bad place to be” in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn’t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can’t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers—four by each team—but that’s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh’s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn’t seem likely, though it’s entirely possible they’ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 33. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday’s this season.

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.

Steelers at Broncos MNF Preview

AFC powers Pittsburgh and Denver collide in what figures to be one of the better Monday night games in what has been an entertaining season. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are 5-2 after their bye week, off a tremendous high after getting past previously undefeated Minnesota. Ben Roethlisberger may be putting up some crazy passing stats in 2009, but it was heroic defensive efforts by LaMarr Woodley and Keyaron Fox that did the Vikings in.

The current four-game win streak has witnessed the Steelers (2-5 ATS) get their vaunted running game back on track (126.2 vs. 81 YPG the first three games), although no other back has scored besides Rashard Mendenhall. While head coach Mike Tomlin has received the usual contributions from Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, tight end Heath Miller has gotten off to one of the best years of his five-year career, snatching 40 balls for 353 yards and four touchdowns. They will be looking to extend a run of 29-11 ATS when playing against teams with a 75 percent or higher winning percentage.

Defensively, the extra week off can only help the recently-healed Troy Polamalu, who made six tackles and had two passes defended in last contest, after recording only two stops the previous week versus Cleveland. There has also been no Super Bowl hangover from linebacker James Harrison, who is second on the team in tackles (41) and tops in sacks with eight. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is 1-2 and 0-3 ATS on the road and has now dropped five straight games against the number away from home.

The stellar play of Kyle Orton has made the breakup of Jay Cutler and Denver look like one of those month-long high school flings and not some heavily invested marriage. And while the permanently scowled Cutler deals with throwing to subpar Bears receivers, Orton has his team sitting pretty atop the AFC West with room to spare.

Now, all the preseason predictions of a 5-11 season have faded into the thin Rocky air, as the Broncos (6-1 ATS) have the inside track to locking down a division crown and possibly a first-round bye in the postseason. That’s because Orton has kept it simple in a 6-1 start, and his nine touchdowns and one interception reflect it. Denver is 6-1 ATS against AFC teams playing with rest.

Denver’s winning ways have also kept receiver Brandon Marshall quiet and happy after preseason antics to try to orchestrate trip out of town. Instead, fans have witnessed some game-altering performances in home underdog wins over Dallas and New England, with huge touchdown catches. The Broncos are perfect 3-0 SU & ATS at home, having outscored opponents by a 21.3-11.0 margin.

One would also be remiss not to mention the NFL’s top total defense and the exploits of linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who has already posted 10 sacks.

DiamondSportsbook.com established Denver as three-point home underdogs and the number has stuck all week. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS as a home team catching and with the total at 40, are 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game. The Steelers are 6-19 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and 13-5 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. In this head-to-head series, dogs have covered four straight and six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER.

The Steelers cover if Roethlisberger stays patient against very strong and fundamentally sound Denver D. The Broncos secondary can lock up receivers in man coverage, placing greater emphasis on using TE Miller. The normally reliable Denver offensive line had all kinds of problems with Baltimore blitzes last week, which should give Pittsburgh confidence they can get to Orton. Pitt is -3 in turnover margin, improve that number on Monday and victory ensues.

The Broncos cover if Orton does a better job in recognizing the blitz. Though last week he didn’t make a lot of obvious mistakes, the check downs were too often in the three-to-five yard range. Coach Josh McDaniels and Orton have to be able to hit receivers moving forward for additional gains. When McDaniels was at New England, they would spread the Steelers defense throwing deep to expand zone and come underneath on crossing routes, with additional room created. Pass catchers Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler are capable of creating such an attack. Expect Denver to play games to free up Dumervil, to use his explosive quickness against Big Ben, who will hold the ball.

System Play – Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3, having won four out of their last five games, taking the field in November. (36-12 ATS, L12Y)

Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet contributed to this article.

Matching Quarterbacks to ATS numbers

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn’t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you’ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he’s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let’s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won’t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he’s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams “greatest show on turf” from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he’s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday’s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he’s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner’s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer’s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn’t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren’t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli’s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He’s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn’t given the underdog role too often and he’s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here’s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group “knocking on the door”. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he’s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren’t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

A New NFL Wagering Season Begins

Keeping with recent NFL tradition, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers open the new season at home before a national television audience on Thursday night. Pittsburgh, fresh off its second crown in four years, hosts Tennessee in a battle of the AFC's top two playoff seeds from 2008.

The Titans (13-4, 14-4-1 ATS in 2008), who defeated the Steelers 31-14 in Week 16 last season and captured the AFC South title with 13 victories, are eager to be back in action after suffering a mistake-filled playoff loss at home to Baltimore in the divisional round. Tennessee outgained the Ravens by 180 yards, but three turnovers in the red zone proved too much to overcome.

Turnovers, a stifling defense, a deft running game and sound quarterback play from veteran Kerry Collins made the Titans the team to beat entering last year's postseason. And even with menacing tackle Albert Haynesworth (Redskins) gone from a defense that ranked in the top six in most categories, Tennessee is certain to be a factor in a division any of the four clubs could win and is 7-0 ATS in September the last couple of years.

Pittsburgh's competition in the AFC North may only go one deep, with nobody outside of Baltimore expected to contend. The Steelers (15-4, 11-8 ATS) have essentially the same personnel and are a safe bet to pick up right where they left off as 27-23 winners over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII. Aside from an Achilles' scare in practice, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a quiet offseason, unlike 2006, and is primed to top last year's numbers (3,301 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) with a new second tier of receivers in Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald (Lions) to go with veteran Hines Ward and Santonio "Super Bowl MVP" Holmes. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in first game of a new season.

Roethlisberger passed for 331 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions versus the Titans last Dec. 21 in a game that saw Pittsburgh's top-ranked defense allow just one scoring drive of more than 40 yards. That came midway through the third quarter when Tennessee went 79 yards on 11 plays and took the lead for good on Chris Johnson's 21-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-inches.

Pittsburgh can expect a heavy dose of Johnson and LenDale White, but as the Titans showed in last year's meeting they won't hesitate to pass, as Collins went 20-for-29. That means Justin Gage will see plenty of action after totaling 104 yards last season against the Steelers defense. Look for the Titans to want to clock Big Ben just like last season, when they sacked him five times. Though Haynesworth will be missed, he didn’t play in last year’s matchup.

The Titans are six-point underdogs, with total of 35 at Bookmaker.com and are 16-6 ATS when catching points and are 8-2 UNDER in September.

If the opening game is to be joyous occasion in the Steel City, then the offensive line has to give Roethlisberger time to throw and not have him running for his life. Look for Pittsburgh to test Tennessee defense with deep shots to Sweed and rookie Mike Wallace. Defensively, the Steelers have to keep Johnson inside the tackles and prevent him from bouncing out wide. Pittsburgh is 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has played OVER in seven straight openers.

In the last six meetings between these AFC squads, the OVER is 6-1. The excitement starts at 8:30 Eastern on NBC for the NFL lid-lifter and the previous year’s Super Bowl champions are 9-0 and 7-1-1 ATS in first game of a new season.


College and Pro Football Newsweekly contributed to this article.

Super Bowl XLIII- Who Covers and Why

Finally. That’s right, Sunday night at 6:28 Eastern time, the Super Bowl will start and all the rhetoric about Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm being jilted by the Pittsburgh organization, and the talk of the Steelers secondary having to face the greatest wide receiver ever to play the game in Larry Fitzgerald (That Rice guy used to be pretty good) will end. Now we can get down to the basics, blocking and tackling, who makes the best sight adjustments throughout the 60 minutes and who holds up under pressure. Here is a look at how each team wins and covers the spread. Pittsburgh gets to go first since they are the road team, called heads and will take the ball.

Pittsburgh wins and covers because…

They can play keep away, holding the ball for over 32 minutes during the regular season and almost 35 minutes in the playoffs. They have the ability to demoralize opponents, since offensive coordinator Bruce Arians won’t give up on the run and if Pittsburgh has success, they will just pound away until they break opposing team’s will.

Arizona DC Clancy Pendegrast will attack the Steelers offense with blitzes trying to get the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, with the intent of forcing mistakes. The Steelers can counter this with draws, screens and utilizing tight end Heath Miller to move the chains. The goal of the Pittsburgh offense is to push, push and push the Cardinals and hit a few big plays with Willie Parker running the ball or deep shots to Santonio Holmes. Don’t be surprised if Nate Washington has bigger impact than Hines Ward in this big game.

If defense wins championships, Pittsburgh is perfectly situated to take home a record sixth Super Bowl trophy. The Steelers allowed 161.5 yards per game as the NFL’s top pass defense and Arizona has passed for 284.9 yards per game in 19 outings. That is a preposterous 122.4 yards difference comparing the strengths of the two teams. Even if Pittsburgh allows half the total of 61 yards, they have effectively taken away a large chunk of the Arizona attack. The idea with Fitzgerald is to not have him make big plays since he will we get his catches and limit the other receivers.

Dick LeBeau defense first needs to corral the Arizona running game. Though Kurt Warner is having a special season, he has gotten rattled this year and it usually happens early. Make Warner’s emotions work against him and pressure him with different looks. If Warner gets that eye-wided snarl on his face, the Steelers will be wearing the Super Bowl winners t-shirts and hats.

Arizona wins and covers because…

The defense is playing tough, assignment-oriented football. In every playoff game, the Arizona defense has not only stopped the run, they have done so with discipline to prevent big plays. Both Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook made defenders miss running the ball, but the Cardinals defenders maintained gap control and held them to minimal gains time and again. Keeping Parker boxed will force the Steelers to look for other alternatives.

The aforementioned Clancy Pendegrast has to be excited in viewing the tape of all the problems the Pittsburgh offensive linemen had with the Baltimore stunts and games up front, especially on the right side. Look for him to find out if they have corrected this issue, if not, Ben Roethlisberger can expect to see red shirts and white helmets in his line of vision and around him all day. Give a disrespected underdog a reason to play harder, they will.

Part of Arizona’s success in the postseason has been their ability to start and keep the pressure on their opponents. When teams trail in the playoffs, coaches feel a different sense of urgency because a loss means elimination. The Cardinals for the most part have been in control most of the three games. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have balanced the Redbirds offense, creating more opportunities in the passing game. Arizona is 9-0 SU and ATS if they out-rush the opposition this season.

The Cards offensive line has to be aware of linebacker James Harrison at all times. He has been the most disruptive individual defender in the NFL this year. Warner has to keep his cool and might be forced to look to receivers Steve Breaston and even Jereme Urban, with how the Steelers can play defense. Though Warner is a seasoned veteran, capable of reading any defense, he still has to make the plays, particularly in the moment. If he realizes the Steelers defense will force enough three and outs, yet can still be had with the multitude of weapons, possibly the most unlikely Super Bowl champion since the New York Jets in the third Super Bowl will be crowned.

Every last thing you need to know about the Super Bowl 43

I had a very clear understanding of who I thought would win and cover the Super Bowl, what total to take and what props to play. After doing research for this article, I’m more confused about what to do next than Megan from “The Bachelor”.

I started by going to Sportsbook.com to get a feel what the wagering public was thinking and 52-55 percent of the quote-unquote “squares” are on Arizona to cover the spread. Based on recent history, this made sense to me taking the points, especially if the line holds at Pittsburgh -7. Over 60 percent of these same people that place bets at this book like the total to Over, this also made sense to me since the logical conclusion would be the Cardinals and Over and the Steelers and Under.

The money line action has steadily grown towards the Cardinals all week, up to 89 percent of all bets placed was on Arizona. From a value standpoint, this has merit and talking to Doug from 3Daily Winners, he believes many of the same lemmings (my term not his) that cashed on the Giants last year have returned believing the same thing could happen again.

I read where last year was supposed to be the big bonanza, with an estimated 100 million bet on the SB 42. It ended up being a little too optimistic for the perfect storm to occur with the perfect Pats and confident dog Giants, settling at 92M plus. Because of these recessionary times and the less than glamorous Cardinals in the game, this year’s number has been downsized to no more than 85 million and probably less.

Another factor of the decrease of the number is the rebirth of the local guy taking bets. Many bookies went out of business or were cut so severely because of the offshore internet sites that opened up. Once the government snuck in the bill about offshore betting being illegal, this opened up a whole new ball game for these fellas.

Most of the smart ones embraced technology and now have websites set up just like the offshore books and run very much the same way. The beauty for them now is instead of fielding phone calls or sending emails what the current lines are, they just have their “customers” login and view the lines themselves. This has also aided them in their ability to do prop bets for the Super Bowl and take in even more money, as long as they can cover the losses. These guys work less and are making more money then they ever did before. It’s sure is good the government ended up helping those in the United States keep the money here instead of letting in go abroad. (Wink)

To get a feel for what handicappers are thinking about the Big Game, I went to The Spread.com where they always have people posting Free and paid picks. Here the views of who will cover are different from the wagering public. At last count over 60 percent of the cappers were on Pittsburgh, including most of the big names in the business. Having once been in the business myself, I was surprised to see touts giving out a favorite, especially with a touchdown line. They were dead even on the total.

Next I went to every major sports website and read every article they had posted. ESPN.com tends to be more serious, while Fox Sports.com blends in more goofy stories, searching too hard it seems to have that “different angle”. The rest off the sites were somewhere in between. For all the stories on Al Gore’s information highway (You didn’t know he invented the internet and found global warming also?), there was very little I already didn’t know.

I was shocked and dumbfounded to see Brenda Warner (Kurt’s wife), remembering her when she had the spiked-hair which made her look, you know, like a switch-hitter. Now she has that blonde hair and looks sort of hot (especially compared to before). Speaking of hot, what about Big Ben’s either current or possibly former girlfriend? Google her up.

My search for newsworthy trends, angles or what I thought was different info yielded the following.

*Kurt Warner could become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.

*No Super Bowl team had ever been beaten by more than 21 points twice during the regular season, Arizona was defeated on four occasions in this manner.

*The team with the most sacks has won 12 of last 13 Super Bowls and is 8-3-2 ATS.

*Losing Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points are astonishing 0-31 and 3-28 ATS.

*Teams in their first Super Bowl against a team with previous experience (of any kind) are 4-12 and 5-11 ATS.

*The outright winner of the Super Bowl is 34-8 ATS.

*Teams off consecutive upsets are 4-2-1 ATS in the Big Game.

*Pittsburgh is attempting to be the first team to ever have six Super Bowl trophies.
*Teams that win the turnover battle are 30-3 and 27-6 ATS.

*For total players consider the referee. Over the last three years, Terry McCauley’s games have averaged 39.3 points per game, the lowest among all NFL referees.

*Kurt Warner has gone seven years between Super Bowl games, Ben Roethlisberger is try to join Tom Brady as the only quarterback with two rings by age 26.

*Arizona allowed 426 points during the regular season; the previous worst for a Super Bowl team was 360.

*Pittsburgh is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS if they out-rushed their opponent this year and Arizona is 9-0 SU & ATS if they did so.

Made calls down to Tampa area and it resembles Steel City South. As many as 30 or more bars have been designated as Pittsburgh bars. The number for Arizona, well that would be about as many as people who saw there stock portfolio grow in 2008, none.

When I spoke to Doug (who lives in Phoenix area) he told me something I found humorous. The day after the Arizona beat Philadelphia, the different news stations in Phoenix were reporting Cardinals fans were actually going to travel to Tampa even if they didn’t have tickets. Obviously the news people there are dolts and what sounds like a few hundred at most fans from the Grand Canyon State will be outnumbered 30-1 by those in black and gold.

After all this research, my head was spinning and I felt like Paris Hilton at physics convention. (That would be stupid) Decided to go back to my original belief that Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule in the league all season, had few letdowns and for my money was the best team in football since Week 7. I just can’t shake the thought of all those horrific Cardinals losses and maybe it’s all in the past, but like their forever cheap owner Bill Bidwell (Oh do I have stories about him and his father) I find it impossible to believe they will play well enough to win.

Put me down for Steelers 31-20 and I hope I’m right.

These were the thoughts of one Red Wydley.

Super Bowl XLIII Props Debate –Part 2

In part one of the 2-part Super Bowl XLIII Scuffle, Doug & Steve reviewed the overall betting lines and team props for Sunday's game. They are back today to conclude the series by looking at some of the Individual Player Props available at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets. Read on as they deliver analysis on Ben Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, and many others.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 230.5 (-115)
UNDER 230.5 (-115)

Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.
Doug: The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are saying suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well Under this listed total doing the math.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 17.5 (-115)
UNDER 17.5 (-115)

Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.
Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed the 17-completion mark just five times during the 18-game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.

To read the rest of this article, click here.

Breakdown of Super Bowl XLIII Point Spread

This year’s Super Bowl might not have all the snazzy names from a year ago New England and the New York Giants provided, but this matchup have more intriguing stories than Pittsburgh has rivers and just slightly less restaurants and nightclubs Scottsdale has to visit. Start with Arizona having not won a playoff since 1947, twice removed from the south side of Chicago to present location. While Cardinals and players have been spouting nobody believed in them, what was the basis of any history to do so? Speaking of history, Pittsburgh’s NFL history before drafting Mean Joe Greene and Terry Bradshaw in 1969 and 1970 respectively was of similar failure to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was on the ground floor of the NFL’s emergence in 1933 and made the post season once before 1972 (ironically 1947) when their run as on the most decorated AFC champion began.

Other storylines include Bill Cowher stepping down as coach and Arizona’s head man Ken Whisenhunt, a Steelers assistant and Russ Grimm (formerly Pittsburgh assistant, now with the Cardinals) were finalists for the job before the Pittsburgh organization went out an hired a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.

Between now and the start of the game you will have more useless knowledge about players, coaches and teams in the Big Game than a youngster has about each of the Jonas Brothers, nonetheless we’ll try a different approach.

Arizona Running Game vs Pittsburgh Front Seven

After beating a sickly St. Louis squad 34-13 on Nov.2, running the 33 times for 177 yards, Arizona won the NFC West a couple weeks later and lost their way in the process. Over the next seven contests, the Redbirds averaged 16 carries per game. Granted, in several games they fell behind early and were forced to throw the ball to try to score more quickly and abandoned the run. Nevertheless, every game started a 0-0 and even when Arizona trailed 7-0 or even 14-0 in some of those losses, they were all too happy to chuck the run and pass the ball three times for too frequent three and outs. Though the season finale could hardly be described as an awakening, the reinsertion of a fresh and frustrated Edgerrin James yielded a 100+ yard rushing game for the first time in eight tries and set the table for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to rethink playoff strategy. Since their first offensive possession of the postseason, it is obvious “The Edge” is back and the offensive line has improved dramatically, relishing the challenge. Most of the running plays are now one cut and go and though the Arizona linemen are not dominating, there are holes to run thru. One aspect not discussed about the Cards linemen and how they have improved, not one starter has missed a game, which led to chemistry and communication improvements.

The Steelers led the league in total defense and points allowed and were second against the run in surrendering 3.3 yards per carry. The setup is simple, the linemen clog gaps and the linebackers swoop in and make tackles. If Pittsburgh can make Arizona one-dimensional, they can dictate the tempo and come after Kurt Warner with less fear of having to worry about running game. This will be as important an issue as any in the Super Bowl.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Kurt Warner vs Pittsburgh Secondary

It’s not often a quarterback goes seven years between Super Bowl assignments (John Elway went eight), but Kurt Warner has rewarded the coaches faith in him naming him starter in August. Though the Hall of Fame talk seems premature, no doubting the wisdom and toughness Warner has acquired over what has become a long career. Like most veteran signal callers, Warner has seen it all. As I had mentioned several times this season, given time, the Northern Iowa product is still a top five quarterback. He read every Philadelphia blitz correctly and threw the ball with precision into vacated area. Look for Arizona to go to third receiver Steve Breaston more in this game, since the Pitt defenders beyond Ike Taylor are not great individual defenders. Running back Tim Hightower can also be highly effective for Warner, when they push the Steelers secondary deep with their receivers and force Troy Polamalu into coverage, instead of hanging around the line of scrimmage. How Pittsburgh thwarts the Cardinals passing game is with pressure. Television types are talking about how Warner will pick apart Steelers if they blitz too much, of course the very same talking heads said the Philly blitzes would shutdown Cards passing game. Linebacker James Harrison, DE Brett Keisel and LB Lamar Woodley hold the key. Harrison and Keisel are on the back side of Warner and get to him with speed and quickness and knock the ball loose. Woodley is important as he brings in-the-face pressure on Warner and the Steelers defense is the absolute best in having defenders in passing lanes. Expect DC Dick LeBeau to stay in base defense early to see if rushers can get to Warner and turn up the heat as needed.

Spread Differential - None

Pittsburgh Running Game vs Arizona Front Seven

The second most important part of the Super Bowl will be how these two units matchup. After Minnesota and New England combined to rush for 422 yards against Arizona, defensive coordinator Clancy Pendegrast simplified schemes in front, having more gap control. This put players like Darnell Dockett in better positions to make plays at the line of scrimmage and get better penetration on wide plays to his side. The Pittsburgh offensive line is nothing special, just above average. They are helped tremendously by having a healthy Willie Parker, who doesn’t need much of a hole and can out-run defenders if he can just run to daylight. Though the Steelers did almost nothing against Baltimore running the ball (who does?), Arizona is not nearly as stout and guards Chris Kemoeatu and Darnell Stapleton might have chances to get Parker to second level, where he can deadly. As opposed to the other teams the Cardinals defense has faced in the postseason, Pittsburgh won’t give up on the run.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -1

Ben Roethlisberger vs Arizona Secondary

Ben Roethlisberger hangs on to the ball too long and takes too many sacks, yawn, yawn, yawn, tell me something new. When Big Ben is healthy he is slipperier than an eel to take down and finds ways to make plays. Because of his size, he’s an inviting target for defenses to take shots at and defensive coordinators tell there players all week to wrap up Roethlisberger, otherwise he’ll make big plays to win. Guess which one happens more often? Santonio Holmes has been a very good compliment to Hines Ward. The former Georgia product demands coverage help, allowing the speedy Holmes more room to roam. The Arizona secondary won’t be listed among the best in football. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a special talent and Cards coaches had to get him on the field. DRC (that’s insider talk in Phoenix) will still make overaggressive mistakes like any rookie corner and Big Ben will test him. Look for OC Bruce Arians to test Roderick Hood early and often. The best way to exploit Hood is with three receiver sets, making former corner and now safety Antrel Rolle guard somebody else one and one, placing Hood on more of an island. With all this going on, tight end Heath Miller becomes another weapon in Pittsburgh’s arsenal, of which the Cardinals secondary can not lose sight of. The best way to contain Roethlisberger is off the edge, make him step up in the pocket with no escape route. He’s at his best going to his right in open spaces to see the whole field and has the patience to let a receiver run to open area and deliver strike. The Arizona defenders have to keep Big Ben in a U-shaped cup to curtail his effectiveness.

Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -3

Special Teams

Not much to choose from here as both teams are rather undistinguished. In terms of kicks that could be difference makers, Neil Rackers is 8 for 11 beyond 40 yards for the entire season and one of four past 50 or more yards. Jeff Reed has had much tougher conditions to kick in playing half his games in Heinz Field, yet he is 11 for 15 at 40+ yards. Both have average to below return games on kickoffs and punt returns, though game-breakers are returning kicks. Arizona on average has allowed six more yards per return on kickoffs, though this doesn’t seem to be a significant factor. Looking at the numbers, one could surmise neither team places a great deal of emphasis on special teams and they just presume the players on the field to do what is expected of them.

Spread Differential -None

Coaching

This is a rare matchup of coaches in a Super Bowl game. Beyond the two coaches having to spruce up resumes and work on interviewing skills when the Pittsburgh job opened up two years ago, we don’t know much about either one in such a huge moment, even with a Google search. Not since the 2001 Super Bowl, when Brian Billick and Jim Fassel were on the sidelines for Baltimore and the New York Giants, have we had two coaches without deep backgrounds as head coaches. Both coaches have tough-guy mentalities, with reasonable accountability of their players and they don’t stick with one train of thought to just be stubborn and inflexible. Ken Whisenhunt made the call that Kurt Warner was going to give his team the best chance to win and when Edgerrin James was not producing, did not hesitate to go to Tim Hightower. When it was shown the rookie was not ready for every down duty, Whisenhunt went back to James and praised him for be a professional when relegated to the bench.

Mike Tomlin last season ran a ruthless preseason, establishing himself as the head coach and made the players realize Bill Cowher was indeed gone. Tomlin simplified elements of the Pittsburgh offense and defense, yet never strayed far from the strengths of his squad. If any franchise embodies the fundamentals of professional football, it is Pittsburgh, with blocking and tackling at the core.

Both coaches have proven to be secure in their positions hiring top notch assistants, who could go on to heading coaching jobs one day themselves. With two weeks to prepare, both should have strong game plans designed to negate the other and tricks plays will be used. What we don’t know based on their inexperience on the game’s biggest stage, is how they will react under pressure for certain calls and adjustments to be made.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

Unless you were among the few thousands that trudged to Tempe, AZ to sit in 90 to 100 degree heat for almost two decades and never wavered in your belief the Cardinals would someday be in the Super Bowl, this has been a complete shock. The game of professional football has followed the same path as college basketball and major league baseball; it’s what you do late that counts. Arizona has essentially been an underdog just like the Giants were last season, though the Cardinals did have the benefit of two home games. The underdog role fits this team perfectly, just fueling the motivation it needs to just keep on playing outstanding football. The Cardinals are just the second Super Bowl team to have seven losses (1979 L.A. Rams, played Pittsburgh by the way in SB XIV) and like the Giants are free of any expectations coming into Tampa. The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.

Pittsburgh is a deserved favorite, having played seven regular season games against teams that made the NFL playoffs, plus New England and Dallas who were post-season caliber. The Steelers were favored 13 times and came away winners on 10 occasions (7-6 ATS), winning by an average margin of eight points. Pittsburgh does have the better team, which has played better all season long. In retrospect, the Giants were hot last year and New England had already peaked and still could have won except for miracle catch. This is not the case with the Steelers who have proven to be a top notch thoroughbred from start to finish. Since Roethlisberger’s arrival, Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in the playoffs.

Spread Differential –Arizona -1

Cumulative Spread Differential – Pittsburgh -6

Looking in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

For those that watched that the Dallas and Pittsburgh contest, with nearly the intensity as same Samuel Louis Charles of North Miami Beach, Fla., (he won a cool million on ESPN's Streak For The Cash game with Steelers triumph) you had to be struck by several key factors. This whole Dallas meltdown deal is taking on a life of its own. For those not familiar, the Cowboys are 18-37 in their last 55 December/January games, with an even worse 15-39-1 ATS record. For Dallas backers and I know there is a whole bunch of you, this makes them among the worst teams in all of football to end and begin different years.

Everybody thought the three wins after the bye had Dallas rolling. Against Pittsburgh, their defense was phenomenal, never letting Ben Roethlisberger breath and shutting down the Steelers passing game almost completely for 53 minutes. But for all the supposed All-Pro players on the Cowboys roster, in the clutch, they make the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz seem brave at the end of games. Though Wade Phillips team was the equal, if not the better team, once again, the Boys couldn’t put the cork in the bottle at crunch time and Tony Romo look like the undrafted free agent he is when the chips are all on the table.

Though I’m unbelievably impressed with the Steelers this season, since I didn’t see any way around their brutal schedule, I’m squeamish about Mike Tomlin in the big game. On the fourth and one play early in the fourth quarter when Pittsburgh was stopped on downs, why wouldn’t you kick the field goal to make it a one score game at 13-6. I’m sure his argument would be he has faith in his defense to get the ball right back, great point. But wouldn’t the same argument hold be true if you were down just one score instead of two? Sometimes his strength as a coach is also his weakness and he has done similar things with mixed results as head coach.

Dallas will host the New York Giants, who were finally bitten by the Plaxico Burress bug and played like a team that had been through emotional ringer, losing at home to Philadelphia 20-14 as a touchdown favorite. Like a Trojan computer virus, if contained immediately, the damage can be minimal, however once other players on the team started to come into question for the incident, this story grew and had a lingering affect. It was also noted Domenik Hixon didn’t look nearly as comfortable in role as key receiver as opposed to matching up against weaker DB’s as the third or fourth option. The Eagles Brian Dawkins offered this insight.

Listen," Dawkins said, "I understand that you want to say the correct thing like 'We'll plug in this guy and we'll move on.' And that's all well and good. But when you have the type of player that Plax is and the attention you have to pay to him ... and you have to pay attention to him. You can't allow a corner to play one-on-one with Plax the whole game.

The Giants can certainly overcome this with three weeks left in the season, but the invincible tag lost several layers over the weekend as a play on team.

The Green Bay Packers are done, finished and kaput. Oh sure, in the off-season Packer apologists will point to five losses by four points or less or whatever the final tally is. Yet the fact remains, similar to Dallas, when called upon at the end of the game, the Green and Gold are just green with envy suffering another defeat.

Consider the Green Bay defense allowed 549 yards of offense to Houston at Lambeau Field. The Texans are essentially a dome or warm weather team and they played on the road in temperatures that never saw double digits and moved the ball like a 7 on 7 practice in August. Their is no doubt the Packers defensive backfield has been hamstrung by injuries at the safety position, but do you really take a player like CB Charles Woodson, who was having a Pro Bowl season and move him to safety?

Aaron Rodgers has mostly stayed above the disappointing season, but he was an important reason why they lost to Houston. The Packers were miserable 1 for 10 on third down conversions in the game and on six occasions they ran their favorite slant route play and never converted one. Twice, the receivers ran sloppy routes and didn’t shield defensive players properly. However, on all six passes Rodgers threw, none of the passes were in the tight window necessary to force completions. Instead of the usual December rush were accustomed to seeing by the Pack, they look to be going thru the motions and have to be thought of as play against team on the road in Jacksonville and in Chicago the next two weeks.

In the National Football League, nothing is a given, with the possible exception of blocking in the back on kicks twice or more a game. With the disillusionment Dallas and Green Bay have created, the wonderment the Miami Dolphins has spawned is about as confounding as any story this season. Miami, of course won just one game last season, covering the spread only five times. With an overturned roster, new attitude, improved quarterback play and better game plans, the Dolphins are tied for first place in the AFC East with the Jets and New England. Miami has two winnable contests with San Francisco and Kansas City next, in which they will be favored in both before heading for New Jersey to face the Jets. Think Chad Pennington will have his team ready if they are still tied for first in this matchup?

Quick Hits –This past week, teams that had scored or allowed 40 or more points the previous week were 4-0 ATS. On the season, nothing remarkable, with teams having scored 40+ points 9-8 ATS and those allowing the same number 7-7 ATS. Early in the year, we heard quite a bit about clubs from Pacific Time zone teams traveling East and losing. This last Sunday, three teams traveling west, two or more time zones away failed to cover. Annually, their are not a large number of these games, but teams that force five or more turnovers are 6-3 ATS this season, after producing 11-28-1 spread record the two previous years. Pittsburgh is a live play this week. Several weeks ago it was noted how well teams in the bottom five of Yards Per Point were doing at 16-6 ATS, after being 60 percent spread losers the last several years. As the season as worn on, they are coming back to normal with 7-13-1 ATS record the last five weeks.

Monday Night Matchup - Steelers at Redskins

Washington has passed most of their previous tests, save for a final-second loss at home to the Rams in Week 6. But looking at St. Louis these days maybe that defeat isn't as bad as it originally looked. The Redskins steamrolled hapless-and still winless-Detroit, 25-17, and remains just behind the Giants in the NFC East.

Maybe owner Daniel Snyder was onto something when he hired head coach Jim Zorn despite no prior experience as a front man. It helps having the NFL's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, who added 126 yards to his total (944) against the Lions, in the same huddle. Rather than the wide-open spaces he's become accustomed to in Zorn's West Coast offense, Portis may have to take more of a bullish approach against Pittsburgh who is 33-18 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play.

The Steelers, ranked No. 2 in the NFL against the run (71.6 yards per game, three touchdowns), have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games and averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. Washington is 28-12 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 90 or less rushing yards a game, including 2-0 against the spread this season.

Jason Campbell did complete 23 of 28 attempts for 328 yards against the Lions but can expect plenty more pressure in Pittsburgh. Much like the Giants did in Week 1, the Steelers are expected to bring the heat from all angles, and may be better at it than even the defending champs. Campbell has just three turnovers (all fumbles), but all have come within the last three games. Washington is 6-15-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards.

Campbell's counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger, hasn't yet clicked in offensive coordinator Bruce Arian's system and may have turned in his worst performance yet in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. He threw just one touchdown and four interceptions and absorbed five sacks. At least two of the sacks were because Roethlisberger held the ball too long, something the coaches are trying to get him to change. The Steelers 7-3 ATS off a loss.

Running back Willie Parker missed a fourth consecutive game with a knee injury, but Mewelde Moore, at one point the third-stringer, continues to prove his value and the running hasn’t fallen off as much as expected. Parker might be ready for this encounter.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as a 2.5-point choice with a total of 36.5. Pittsburgh is 17-6 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a favorite and the Skins are 21-9 UNDER after out-gaining opposition by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.

Pittsburgh covers if they stop Portis, which they well could do since they held the Giants to just over half their average last week. The Steelers have to get after Campbell and force him to make bad choices and create turnovers. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been solid all, year, contain Washington and they improve to 28-10 ATS playing against teams with 75 win percentage or higher.

Washington covers if they can prevent the Pittsburgh linebackers from blitzing Campbell silly. The Redskins defense has only forced eight turnovers on the year, Big Ben will present opportunities, and they must cash in and create shorter fields for the offense. Attack the Steelers guards on defense, since this is the area where they have has the most problems in pass protection. Start trouble in the middle and safeties could have free shots at Roethlisberger. Pitt is 3-7 ATS on the road at teams with winning records.

No pertinent system for Monday night, however teams like Washington that have gone five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent like Pittsburgh after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 32-9 ATS, 78 percent.