MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs

This is very good article, I thought you would enjoy.

MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
By Steve Makinen of StatFox

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

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American League teams needing quick starts

The second half of the Major League Baseball season is about to begin and three games are on tap in the junior circuit for participants in sports betting. Two contests feature playoff contenders who are looking to begin the second half with a win, to set the right tone for the rest of the season, hopefully to keep building momentum from this point.

Rangers and Red Sox rumble

Boston (51-37, +3.9 units) actually has a better record than Texas (50-38, -1.8), but is in third place in the AL East behind New York and Tampa Bay, while the Rangers have the largest lead (4.5 games) among the six division leaders.

Both clubs have been slumping and are in need of a fast start to rebuild momentum. Boston has lost five of last seven games, falling behind the Rays in the standings as all their injuries apparently have caught up with them. Seven important players on are the disabled list and that includes All-Stars Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Clay Buchholz.

“I know it’s not perfect, I recognize that, but the level of intensity and trying to do the right thing has been off the charts,” manager Terry Francona told the Red Sox’s official website. “It’s been a challenge, but one that I think we’ve all kind of enjoyed. … Our job is to win with what we have.”

The Red Sox have not enjoyed much success versus quality clubs the last two seasons with a 5-19 record against teams with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season.

Texas starts this four game series with its confidence more shaken than Mel Gibson, having lost a four game series at home to Baltimore of all teams. The Rangers base paths looked like Dallas at rush hour in failing to beat the Orioles once, leaving a total of 37 runners on base in being swept. Those losses left the Rangers 6-15 against AL East opponents this season.

Texas opened as an underdog at online sports betting outlets, but were quickly turned around to a favorite with Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA) facing Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22). Hunter has had seven quality starts in eight outings, but was torched for nine runs in 1 2/3 innings in only Fenway Park start. The Rangers are 3-8 this month.

Boston won final game in Toronto 3-2 and is 18-2 in home games after scoring and allowing three runs or less over the last two seasons. Wakefield will especially careful with Vladimir Guerrero who is hitting .434 against him (10 for 23 with five homers). The BoSox have had little to fear from the Rangers, being winners in 11 of previous 14 in Bean Town.

Scalding Sox try to avoid Minnesota mishaps

During the All-Star telecast, FOX analyst Tim McCarver talked about asking Chicago’s Paul Konerko if he had ever played on a team that was as hot as the White Sox (25-5 since June 9) and the first basemen’s answer was direct and to the point, “Never”.

Chicago’s current eight-game winning streak and torrid play had them blasting by Minnesota (46-42, -3.4) and Detroit to the top rung in the AL Central.

The Pale Hose trailed Minnesota by 9.5 games when this scintillating streak first started and even the manager of Chicago is trying to come to grips with the situation. “I think it is a shock just because the way the team was playing, how many games we were out of first place. It’s a shock how quick we did it,” skipper Ozzie Guillen said. Chicago is 11-2 after four or more consecutive wins this season.

The White Sox (49-38, +9) make a second trip this season to Target Field with hopes of drowning past failures in the land of 10,000 lakes.

Playing in the Twin Cities is not listed as a favorite spot by the White Sox, having lost 16 of last 20; however except for 1-1 this year, the rest of the damage was done at the old Metrodome, where seemingly everything went wrong.

John Danks (8-7, 3.29) hasn’t received a great deal of run support despite being effective and he and Chicago are 19-10 on the road (1-6 lifetime at Minnesota) since 2008.

The Twins are 47-19 at home against left-handed starters the last three seasons and hand the ball to Kevin Slowey (8-5, 4.64), trying to turnaround season that has gone south with 6-13 record of late. Slowey and the Twinkies are smallish -115 money line home favorites for those betting on sports and are 14-2 in home games after he walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings over the last three seasons.

Saturday Specials

The Rockies scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth to blow our system play and give us a 1-2 Friday, as we look to rebound. A number of top line pitchers are scheduled to throw today and two of them have unreal records as favorites and are listed as Top Trends. Our Best System is a winner 84.1 percent of the time and Ron thinks he has another Free Winner on tap. Good Luck

3Daily Winners is No.7 in units won in MLB at Cappers Watchdog the last week.

What I saw yesterday – Kuroda of the Dodgers had nothing last night against the D-Backs, throwing 66 pitches in less than two innings. The rest of the bullpen was not much better. I just tire of watching Matt Kemp, he just doesn’t play hard. For a guy who should be approaching the prime of his career, getting benched by your manager doesn’t show a willingness to help your team.

It was just one game, but Arizona went the other way with pitches (instead of trying to pull everything like usual) and was aggressive on the base paths. I have no idea if Kirk Gibson is a good manager, but I expect he will push the Snakes to be more assertive and sit those who are not.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like Detroit, averaging 0.9 or less long balls per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more. Dating back to when the movie “Good Will Hunting” was hit, this system is 53-10.

Free Baseball Trends -2) Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies are 14-0 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last two seasons and Jon Lester and Boston are 17-0 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine with 28-8 MLB record and is taking the Red Sox to pulverize the O’s on the run line.

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Start of great holiday weekend

Having a vast number of duties to attend to, been a little so on the upkeep but we are still 90-52 in last 142 plays right here at 3Daily Winners. Ron of the Left Coast Connection is still clicking away winners and offers his best play for Free. We have a perfect trend on an AL visitor and the Best System is a totals play at 85 percent! Good Luck

Over the last 10 days, 3Daily Winners is #2 in MLB units at Cappers Monitor.

What I thought the last few days – It is a delight to have my daughter home. She’s a big Dodgers fan (don’t ask why) and we are going the next two nights.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Under on road teams like the Giants against the total when they average less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR’s a start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent. Got that, what you need to know is this totals system is 34-6, 85 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 10-0 after three straight games with two or more stolen bases over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to shine on 25-8 MLB run and has the Tigers to maul the Mariners.

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MLB Series Wagering- Marlins at Braves

The general consensus from Florida players was the three game series in Puerto Rico was “different”, however at least it was successful, as they captured two of three against the New York Mets. The Marlins are glad to be back in the lower 48, even if it means taking on the team with the best home record in baseball.

Florida (-6 units) is in fourth place in the National League East with 37-41 record and a trifle rudderless with interim manager Edwin Rodriguez calling the shots, but that is life under owner Jeffrey Loria, who expects prime kobe beef steak, as long as if doesn’t cost much.

Manager Bobby Cox farewell tour is going swimmingly, with Atlanta (46-33, +8.7) atop the division. The Braves offensively are playing a brand of baseball that is a sum of parts rather than individual components. Atlanta’s team batting average is eighth in the National League at .259 and this is a club sorely lacking in power, ranking 12th in home runs (61) and 13th in total bases. Yet, they are third in total runs scored in the senior circuit and are the best in on-base percentage at .347. The larger reason for this higher ranking is the patience at the dish with 342 walks, compared to league average of 264, which are 78 more chances to score without ever putting the ball in play.

While a great deal of focus has been rightly shone on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, with his brilliant season to date, tonight’s pitcher for the Fish, Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83 ERA), has allowed six earned runs in his last nine starts, the same as Jimenez. Johnson and Florida are 31-14 against division opponents, which includes 7-4 vs. Atlanta. The 6’7 right-hander is 4-2 with 2.91 ERA against the Braves has permitted a .545 on-base slugging percentage this season, the lowest of any pitcher in the majors.

Kris Medlen (5-1, 3.15) started the season in the bullpen, but the 24-year old has eight quality starts in nine appearances since joining the rotation on May 8. Medlen and the Bravos are +106 home underdogs, which is noteworthy with Atlanta 28-9 (+15.2 units) at home. The Braves this season are 23-9 playing against a team with a losing record, but are 7-15 facing a pitcher who allows a home run or less every other start. Florida’s Johnson is 17-4 vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game (Marlins Record) and is 23-8 since the beginning of last year, the third best record in the big leagues.

Game 1 Edge: Florida

Game 2 in the series is a regional FOX telecast and it’s the second of a 10-game road trip for Florida. While the Braves rookie right fielder Jason Heyward has garnered a great deal of attention, the Marlins might end having the NL rookie of the year. First baseman Gaby Sanchez leads all rookies in batting average, base hits, doubles and on-base percentage. When asked about his lack of notoriety Sanchez responded, "I don't mind at all, I'd rather be under the radar and coast through."

One player not coasting is Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) for Florida. Sanchez has 10 quality starts from the total of 15 he’s been given the ball and the team is 4-1 when he has five days rest.

Atlanta counters with Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50) who’s hit the wall. His last two starts read like this – 7 1/3 innings, 21 hits, 14 earned runs permitted, for 17.18 ERA. (Yikes) Even after being knocked around, Hanson and his teammates are 9-3 in his last dozen starts and are 17-3 at Turner Field coming into this series.

The Braves are 36-15 in the second game of a series and the Marlins are 4-9 most recently.

Game 2 Edge: Atlanta

The series finale pits Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) against veteran Tim Hudson (8-3, 2.37). The Atlanta right-hander has been exceptional all season long, conceding more than three runs once in his 16 trips to the slab. The Braves began this series 40-17 as favorites. The Marlins are drowning in the role of underdog, 11-22 as of Friday and they hope Nolasco’s bugaboo doesn’t arise again. The five year veteran has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in 2010, but he’s been leaving too many pitches in the zone and has been taken deep 19 times already this season. A 5:05 local start time should help pitchers with more shadows.

Game 3 Edge: Braves

This is the Marlins first trip into Atlanta this season and they are 9-9 the past two years and 19-20 overall against the Braves since 2008. Florida would seem to have a legitimate opportunity to win this series because they can match Atlanta’s starting pitching. Nonetheless, baseball is a nine inning contest and with how well the Bravos are playing at home and having decided edge in the bullpen (Marlins pen ERA is 4.65 vs. Braves 3.37), a series wager on manager Cox’s club appears prudent.

Sports books series odds: Florida +140, Atlanta -1703

3Daily Winners Pick: Atlanta

July’s Good and Bad Baseball Pitcher’s

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards? Stay tuned. What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A.J. [9-2]
If there is one pitcher in baseball glad to see the calendar change it is Burnett (6-7, 5.25 ERA). For the month of June he was 0-5, with gargantuan 11.34 ERA. If you caught any of his pitched games, this is a hurler really struggling mentally. Of the 35 hits he allowed last month, 11 of them went over the wall. Burnett and the Yankees hope he turns around this month around quickly.

Cook, Aaron [12-6]
The Colorado pitcher is finding his groove after a rocky start (intentional play on words), lowering his ERA to 4.69. Cook (2-5) pitches to contact and his fastball has had more sink in the last several starts and if the Rockies are going to make run at NL West crown, they will need Cook to be cookin’.

De La Rosa, Jorge [11-5]
De La Rosa has been out since April 25 with torn tendon band in the middle finger of his throwing hand. He’s at Triple-A Colorado Springs working to get to big club.

Hamels, Cole [12-4]
He’s still only 26-years old, but the lefthander just hasn’t risen to the same level of excellence he achieved during the 2008 postseason. His 54-40 career record shows too many cement-mixer curve balls and change-ups left up in the zone. The Phillies bats have been quieter this season and Hamels (4.08) has to be better than 6-6 this season.

Haren, Dan [12-4]
Throwing for Arizona is not a comfortable position for starting pitcher. As a starter you fill like you have to throw a complete game since they have combustible bullpen. This has caused Haren (7-6, 4.56) to attempt to be too fine and he touched for 19 home runs and .282 batting average compared to career number of .253. Interesting to follow if he can retain July’s previous good fortune.

Johnson, Josh [8-2]
Johnson (8-3, 1.83) hasn’t given up three earned runs in a game since May 8, which covers nine starts. At 6’7, 250-pounds, he’s imposing figure and his mid-to-high 90’s heat jumps late, causing bad swings and misses. With the way the Marlins ace is throwing, he could be in for special month.

Lackey, John [14-3]
Lackey is a Texas native and heats up like the weather when it comes to wins and losses. He’s no longer the hard thrower that can go thru a line-up more than twice without making adjustments on the run. His 9-3 record is mixed with good fortune as his 4.46 ERA is run of the mill. In Lackey’s last seven starts, Boston has averaged 8.1 runs per game.

Lester, Jon [10-1]
The left-hander continues to quietly keep rising in the elite ranks of pitchers in baseball. His 51-19 career mark is among the best since 2006 and this season he been even more impressive with 9-3 record and 2.86 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .205 against him.

Lowe, Derek [10-5]
At 37, Lowe (9-6. 4.53) is no longer the pitcher worms used to fear, with opponents incessantly beating the ball into the ground for outs. The vast majority of outs Lowe still induces are still ground balls, but his command has been a little iffier in 2010, presently heading towards a career high in free passes. If he finds the groove, he and Atlanta should have another strong month.

Oswalt, Roy [10-2]
Oswalt (3.55) is heading towards his first losing season with 5-10 record playing for an inferior Houston club. Trade rumors abound for the 32-year pitcher, who would appreciate a change of scenery to recharge the competitive juices. If a team is interested in Oswalt, it should make a move now based on July figures.

Saunders, Joe [9-3]
Manager Mike Scioscia is known for his great patience in understanding the season is 162 games long and players are going to have ups and downs. Joe Saunders (6-8, 4.88) has been testing Scioscia’s resolve with a rollercoaster campaign. Saunders has been far more effective on the road (3.35 ERA vs. 6.18 at the Big A) and if he straightens out that part of game and pitches inside to RH hitters, he should have typical July.

Vazquez, Javier [10-5]
After a VERY choppy beginning, Vazquez (6-6, 5.16) is becoming the type of hurler GM Brian Cashman was hoping for. Vazquez has 3.78 ERA in last 10 starts and has better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Duke, Zach [2-9]
It’s becoming more a mystery why Duke (3-8, 5.49) stays in the Pittsburgh rotation. Yes, the Pirates are brutal, but do you really need a starter that opposing batters are slugging .322 against? This Duke is a dog. (As in “Here Duke”)

Greinke, Zack [2-8]
Last year’s Cy Young winner has had a rough go of it this season, with a combination of Kansas City bullpen failings and Greinke (3-8, 3.72) trying to do too much. He’s been sharper of late and might improve on this month’s historical record with a little support.

Harden, Rich [4-9]
On the DL with gluteal strain and is scheduled for a few bullpen sessions to start the month.

Parra, Manny [3-7]
Strictly a back of the rotation guy, Parra (2-5, 4.12) was returned to the Milwaukee rotation after they had nowhere else to turn to. His 3.98 ERA as starter isn’t all that bad, however this southpaw is being crushed by lefty hitters, conceding .380 BA.

Wellemeyer, Todd [4-8]
The Giants fifth starter has been on the DL since June 11 and according to team reports is expected to return to club in mid-July.


Doug Upstone of 3Daily Winners contributed to this article.

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

What we learned from MLB Interleague Play

As per usual, the American League once again showed their superiority over their union partners from the National League in interleague play with a 134-118 edge. This marks the seventh straight time the junior circuit has been victorious, however for those thirsting for the 16-team league to finally win this event, this year was the closest the National League has been since this rein began in 2004. (AL won that year 126-125)

One of the humorous aspects each year is the managers that end up with a tougher draw, whine like Oksana Grigorieva (Mel Gibson’s soon to be ex) about what misfortune they have encountered.

Joe Torre was lightly complaining his team had to face the Angels six times, plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Detroit, which led to 4-11 record this year. Torre might have a slight argument, since his team faced better clubs than either San Francisco or San Diego, who are ahead of them in the standings. Nonetheless, the Dodgers always play terrible against AL, thus this isn’t news and besides, who had the Padres in first place on July 1 in the NL West this season unless they were taking on Triple-A teams.

Over the course of a 162-game slate, there is going to be ups and downs and if a team is in one situation or the other, that more than anything will affect how they play and more likely determine their outcome.

The biggest benefactor of the interleague play was the Chicago White Sox, who single-handily accounted for 75 percent of the difference in the two leagues with their 15-3 record. The White Sox did have any easier draw, having to play Florida, Pittsburgh, Washington and taking on their sinking cross-town rivals the Cubs, didn’t hurt either. However, manager Ozzie Guillen’s club also swept first place Atlanta on the south side during their 11-game win streak and is right back in contention in the AL Central race with Minnesota and Detroit.

Texas and Boston were two other teams that improved their status whipping their National League counterparts. The Rangers contingent of opponents might already be out of the pennant chase, yet you have to tip your cap for franchise best 8-1 road trip, that included stops in Milwaukee, Florida and Houston. Texas returned home and swept Pittsburgh, to make win streak 11 and they start series with Los Angeles on 16-2 roll, 4.5 games ahead of the Angels.

The Red Sox were 13-5 in their interleague adventure and faced three solid clubs from the NL West and went toe to toe six times with the two-time National League champion Phillies. Their success moved them up to second place in the AL East standings, surpassing Tampa Bay and closing in on the Yankees.

With the Dodgers swimming into the interleague black hole with teams like Washington (5-13 interleague play), Pittsburgh (2-13) and Houston (3-12), somebody from the NL had to emerge victorious.

The biggest winner was the New York Mets at 13-5. Their 6-0 record over Baltimore and Cleveland could hardly be described as taxing, yet for a team that is 9-20 on the road everywhere else, that six-pack of visiting triumphs sure came in handy. The Metropolitans again had to face the Yankees six times and manager Jerry Manuel didn’t whine once, keeping his lips closed tight also facing division contenders like the Tigers and Twins.

Of the National Leaguer’s that were 9-6, division leader San Diego was most impressive with 4-2 road mark.

One final note, it would be a complete oversight not to mention the Pirates. Pittsburgh now holds the record for baseball futility with 17 consecutive losing seasons since Barry Bonds left town in 1992 as a free agent for San Francisco. Barring an unprecedented comeback, No. 18 just needs 32 more losses in the final 86 games. Their aforementioned pitiful interleague record of 2-13, saw them outscored by 2.8 runs per game, quite an accomplishment.

Baseball Betting Choice – The Rook or the Vet

Stephen Strasburg’s rookie debut has caused quite a stir in baseball, showcasing his incredible ability. Tim Hudson (7-3, 2.54 ERA) is 13 years older than his mound opponent on Monday night and could put his right arm around the youngster and share his wisdom, having already traveled down this road. Instead, he will try and out-duel the younger phenom.

Strasburg’s (2-1, 1.78) highly anticipated professional campaign has been marked by a number of first’s, the last being his first loss in the Major Leagues, a 1-0 defeat to Kansas City. Though he permitted a season-high nine base hits in his six innings of work, he did strike out nine Royals batters, walking none for the third time in four starts. He also broke a record that has stood since 1955, fanning 41 hitters in his first four initial starts.

“I know there’s going to be times when it’s going to be like this in the future,” Strasburg said. “And there’s going to be times when I’m not pitching well, and they’ll just go out there and score a ton of runs and save me. It’s baseball.”

Lost in all the excitement of Strasburg becoming a member of Washington (33-43), is their recent futility. The Nationals are 3-13 since the right-hander arrived in D.C. and they swept Pittsburgh June 8-10. The most recent three losses were a real embarrassment even for the Nats, as they lost all three games to regional rival Baltimore. That was just the Orioles second sweep of the season and their first ever over Washington since they arrived in the area in 2005.
Hudson is all the way back for last year’s surgery pitching for Atlanta (44-32), which has the best home record in the big leagues at 26-8. Hudson has sparkled at Turner Field with 4-1 record and 1.87 ERA, allowing only 23 hits in 33 1/3 innings. The right-hander has enjoyed any matchup with Washington, sporting an 8-1 record and minuscule 1.62 ERA. In his career, Hudson is 58-22 in home games in the first half of the season. (Team's Record)

Oddsmakers have the Braves as -115 money line favorites, with total Ov.6.5. Atlanta enters this series opener 14-3 at home with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 9-2 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start.

Washington will try and avoid the usual doldrums that affect them, as they are 30-62 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 2008 and 23-10 UNDER in the same role since last season.

This NL East matchup is on ESPN2 at 7:10 Eastern and surprisingly these teams have split the last 18 contests in Atlanta.

Sunday's Material

Those pesky Padres keep coming up with ways to win, which caused me a losing day and fell to 87-49. This Sunday we’ll look to bring it back around starting with a Top Trend from the I-70 series. Ron goes after another winner in the Lone Star state and one home favorite is in an 84.8 percent system. Good Luck

What I saw and heard yesterday – I’m looking a video from yesterday in MLB, if I can’t find, I’ll just relate the story later today.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like Oakland with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the past five years this system is 56-10, 84.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kansas City is 3-15 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron was 2-1 yesterday giving him 11-4 record of late and is riding the Rangers to take the Texas tussle.

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Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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Step up to the dish and swing away on Thursday

With Tuesday’s plays, we stand at 85-46. Because of so many early games I couldn’t post this sooner, but we still have three solid systems to look at tonight on the diamond. The early and late Top Trends are both perfect, however we will count only the latter one for record keeping. You know who is to win the Dodgers vs. Angels battle, I think I do with Free Play. Good Luck

What I saw yesterday – I had the Yankees on the run line last night and though they won 6-5 in extra innings (I’m 4-13 past nine innings this season- OMG), I did not. Here is the stupid part. The D-Backs handed out THIRTEEN WALKS (previous MLB high this season was 11), New York had 10 hits and they still only scored six runs.

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Free Baseball System -1) See the MLB systems below

Free Baseball Trend -2) Didn’t get to post on time, but Tampa Bay is now 20-0 in home games after scoring four runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons. Instead for this evening, consider the Mets who are 8-0 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs a game in 2010.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Our Free picks haven’t been up to usual standards of late, thus I’ll take a trip to the dish with the Halos to sweep the Dodgers.

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Don’t bet on the Cubs coming back

The National League baseball franchise residing in the Windy City is looking all too familiar for its long suffering fans. Picked to finish second in the extremely weak NL Central, the Cubs have the look of a team North Siders are accustomed to, with its usual refrain “Wait till next year”.

Chicago stands at 31-38, in third place in their dreadful division, stocked with the likes of Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Houston. The Cubs are worst wager in the senior circuit at -17 units for a number of reasons.

Coming out of spring training, it was clear the Cubs bats were going to have to carry this club, as the starting pitching was somewhat suspect and the relief pitching uncertain.

The Chicago pitching is rated middle of the road with 3.92 ERA; however that has been helped a great deal by an unexpected source in Carlos Silva, who is 8-2 with 3.01 ERA. Silva’s reincarnation has been about pitching coach Larry Rothchild showing him tapes of his best Minnesota Twins days, when he was more aggressive in throwing strikes and to his credit, has embraced this approach.

Carlos Zambrano (3-5, 5.10 ERA), despite yesterday’s 12-1 rocking chair performance over the Los Angeles Angels, and Randy Wells (3-5, 4.92) have been significant disappointments. Zambrano has lost three and more miles per hour on his fastball and his breaking stuff lacks the bite of younger days. Wells fast start a season ago was considered a mirage by scouts, since his stuff is mostly generic.

Ted Lilly (2-6, 3.42) and Ryan Dempster (5-5, 3.67) have been inconsistent and invariably, their best games have been when the Cubbies other largest problem has arisen.

Chicago is 11th in the NL in runs scored, with a faulty, aging lineup.

For years the Cubs ownership was more interested in making money than putting out a quality product at 1060 W. Addison Street. They sold the sunshine, Harry Carry, Sammy Sosa and benefitted from the neighborhood setting that has just a “few” watering hole establishments.

However, today’s world demands a good product and to sell 40,000 seats daily, winning has to be part of the equation. The Cubs front office went to the other end of the spectrum and has been like Notre Dame with Charley Weis, where a little success meant they were willing to spend a lot of money.

Alfonso Soriano (34 years old) is at 19M this season, being a mediocre fielder, no longer a factor to steal bases and declining hitting skills. Derrick Lee (34) is hitting .234 with 10 home runs in the No. 3 slot in the lineup, while cashing checks for 13.25 M in 2010. Aramis Ramirez (31) should still be in the prime of his career, but again is injured, which probably is a blessing for a supposed slugger with .168 BA. Kosuke Fukudome (33) makes 14M, becoming increasingly a platoon player and according to FOX Sports, is on the trading block.

After a big splash, Geovanny Soto is settling in a decent catcher, but not the star the organization had hoped for after being 2008 Rookie of the Year.

Chicago is 11th in on-base percentage and takes the fifth fewest walks in the NL and has almost no capability to manufacture runs, ranked next to last in stolen bases and lacking speed.
The Cubs are a squad sorely lacking in leadership. Players like Lee and Ramirez are “lead by example guys” and it is clear this group has followed in there inept ways.

Other specimens of poor offense are 15th ranked BA (.233) with no runners on base and 14th ranking with runners in scoring position (.253) among the sixteen clubs in their league.

These supposed “lovable losers” are just as bad or worse in the field. Check these numbers out.

Errors – 14th in fielding percentage
Assists – 14th
Putouts – 14th
Total Chances – 14th

The Cubs have permitted the most unearned runs in the NL.

Even venerable manager Lou Piniella looks tired. He’s picking on White Sox announcer Steve Stone (former Cubs analyst) for the oldest and lamest reasons for voicing opinion about his club.

"And Steve Stone? He's got enough problems doing what he does with the White Sox. What job has he had in baseball besides talking on television or radio? What has he done?"

It sure looks like Sweet Lou is more ready to hang them up then Atlanta’s Bobby Cox.

Can the Cubs return from the dead? Sure they could, however there is little to support a reason as to why. They are .500 at Wrigley and 13-20 on the road.

Against right-handed opposing starters they are 18-28 and in their own division, a floundering 13-20. If the Cubs are favored, the best advice is to run and hide with 22-29 record (-19.4) and they are 1-6 in last seven series.

The future isn’t bright either, beyond unproven youngsters Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin. As we head towards the All-Star break, playing against these Chicago Cubs is your best bet.

June’s Best and Worst MLB Pitchers

If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the season when MLB pitchers look to ace exams in hopes of keeping their teams in the pennant chase. To get a better feel on what to expect, Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com examines their results from exams in the past.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. I’ll be back next month with July’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Floyd, Gavin • 10-2
The White Sox are hoping for quick reversal for what has been disappointing season for right-hander at 2-5 and unseemly 6.02 ERA. His manager has been riding him about his lack of mental toughness this season.

Haren, Dan • 13-4
After showing great consistency in Arizona uniform, Haren has been like his D-Backs teammates with 5-4 record and 5.35 ERA. Though his strikeout to walk ratio is still among the best in the big leagues, he grooved far too many pitches in permitting 16 home runs.

Hernandez, Felix • 12-2
It’s time for the “King” to start pitching like one. Hernandez hasn’t won a game since April (neither has Seattle in his starts), saddled with lack of run support and his occasional poor pitching. Time for Felix to elevate his game.

Kazmir, Scott • 8-4
The Angels lefty is becoming known for giving up big innings, explaining 3-5 record and 6.34 ERA. Amazingly, he’s been deplorable against left-hand hitters who are batting incomprehensible .500 against him starting June, compared to .238 vs. RH swingers.

Lackey, John • 11-4
The tall Texan has been a mild disappointment in Boston with 4.84 ERA to go with his 5-3 record. Lackey doesn’t have the over-powering hard stuff any longer and has to get by on guile, throwing in a smaller ballpark.

Nolasco, Ricky • 8-2
The sturdy Nolasco (4-4) still is throwing strikes, but having trouble hitting his spots deep in the count. He only totaled 15 K’s in May after having 29 punch-outs in same number of starts (5) in April. If he gets the feel of fastball or slider back, he should have another outstanding June.

Pettitte, Andy • 11-5
The 37-year port-sider might be having his best season yet in his career with 7-1 mark and 2.48 ERA. What’s fun to watch about Pettitte these days is where the catcher puts the glove that is where he throws the ball, which helps him get the benefit of the doubt from umpires.

Wakefield, Tim • 11-5
Being used as spot starter to fill in for injured Boston pitchers.

Zambrano, Carlos • 14-3
Believed to be rejoining the starting rotation this month, the Cubs could use a typical June from Big Z.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arroyo, Bronson • 4-13
The Reds starter should have the last name of yo-yo, since that is how he tends to pitch. Obviously this month falls in the “down” category.

Blanton, Joe • 5-12
Blanton has been unimpressive since coming off the disabled list with 1-4 record and 5.68 ERA. Pitches are up in the zone and being ripped.

Garland, Jon • 5-11
The much-traveled hurler has found a home at spacious Petco Park and is 6-2 with sharp 2.55 ERA this season. At home in San Diego, Garland is Ubaldo-like with miniscule 1.15 ERA. Can he keep it going?

Hernandez, Livan • 6-12
Washington has gotten far more than they could have ever expected from Hernandez, who is 4-2 with superb 2.15 ERA. In the last few years, he’s gotten off to starts somewhat similar, but by the third month of the season, the bite of his pitches starts to lose effectiveness and the spots he was wearing out are not as consistent, leading to more hits, runs and defeats piling up.

Hudson, Tim • 4-8
Hudson is healthier than he’s been in years (5-1, 2.24), which might be the greatest factor in how he performs this month.

Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Rays bust mini-slump according to MLB System

It was bound to happen; Tampa Bay (32-15, +9.2 units) is officially in their first slump of the year, having been swept at home by Boston in three games. The Rays “Sox” homestand continues and they will look for much better outcomes against the team from Chicago.

The Rays offense has been the culprit of their failures, touching home plate just four times against the Red Sox and have scored more than four runs only once in their last six tries.

Tampa Bay has fallen to third in the American League in runs scored in part because their team batting average is now seventh (.256), with players like B.J. Upton slumping (batting .146 in his last 23 games).

Starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) would certainly appreciate an offensive lift since he has yet to register a win at Tropicana Field this season despite 2.95 ERA in his four starts. Though Tampa Bay has scored 19 runs in Niemann’s starting assignments at the Trop, 14 of those runs have come after he’s been taken out of the game, giving him no decisions. At least the Rays bullpen continues to excel with 3.41 ERA and 82.4 percent save percentage.

Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox (20-26, -9.6 units) wish they had the kind of problems Tampa Bay has. Guillen’s club has not hit all season as evidenced by .240 batting average (13th) and ranking 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.2) and on-base percentage (.316).

Guillen might be a little testy coming into this four-game series having been tossed from yesterday’s win in Cleveland. The Sox skipper is also tired of witnessing tonight starting pitcher Gavin Floyd (2-4, 6.31) not pitching up to capabilities.

“He is not a kid any more (referring to Floyd), he’s not a guy we need to teach or be careful what he is going to do, how many pitches he’s going to throw,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. He has stuff to win 20 games; it’s about making him believe that.”

Floyd does have good numbers in a couple areas with a better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (43-19) and has only been taken deep four times in nine starts. His downfall has been a combination of leaving the ball up in the zone and catching too much of the plate, being tagged for 66 hits in 51 1/3 innings.

The Rays opened as -165 money line favorites and the morning line has them up to -177 at most online sports betting outlets. Has the word on this superb system gotten out?

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with a mediocre AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a club with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), whose starting pitcher gives up one home run or less every other start.

Betting against teams like the Pale Hose in this spot has been profitable with 43-9, 82.7 percent record the previous five seasons. Tampa Bay usually responds well to poor pitching performances like yesterday with 13-2 mark in home games after allowing nine runs or more over the last three seasons.

Rays’ pitcher Niemann has enjoyed excellent success against below average competition and is 18-4 pitching against a team with a losing record since last year. (Rays Record)

For the skeptical sports betting participant, this should be the knockout punch –Manager Joe Maddon’s squad is 18-0 at home after scoring four runs or less three straight games since 2008.

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Swing Week starts the MLB action

This is the only week of the Major League baseball season that players truly hate. It’s referred to as “swing week” because every team will play 2 two-game series this week before the weekend. The purpose is to balance out the schedule since the two leagues have differing amount of teams, which forces uncommon numbers to make 162-game slate work out. This used to be done later in the year, but the clubs worked with the schedule-maker to get it out of the way sooner in the year.

In the National League, a couple of teams from the Keystone State will meet for a pair. Philadelphia (23-13, +5.1 units) returns home off a 4-1 road trip which included sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Phillies are 11-3 this month and four games clear in the NL East of competitors. The always potent Philly batting order is now the best in the National League at 5.6 runs per game, but improved all around pitching has lit this candle for them.

Pittsburgh at 16-21 (+4.9) isn’t terrible (at least not yet), nor are they particularly good. The Pirates problem is offense, ranked next to last in scoring at 3.5 runs per contest and 14th in home runs with 29 in the senior circuit.

Philadelphia is a -220 money line favorite having to face Charlie Morton (1-6, 9.19 ERA). Even with a couple of surprising wins at Wrigley Field the past three days, Pittsburgh is still 29-70 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

As we head down the hill for May, having Atlanta and the New York Mets holding down the last two spots in the NL East is as surprising the Flyers and Canadiens in the East Finals in the NHL. The Mets (18-20, -3.6) fall is particularly appalling since they were in first place in the division not that long ago, however a 4-12 road record will do that to a team.

The Braves (18-19, -3.8) haven’t been very good on the road either, which is why they have to take advantage of this situation at Turner Field. Atlanta caught Milwaukee at the right time and swept them, took series over pitching-poor Arizona and host Mets who have lost five in a row. Thanks to Tim Hudson yesterday, the Braves are 17-4 with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in last game and they are -144 ML home favorites tonight.

In the American League, Toronto (23-16, +10.5) prepares to face first place Minnesota. A great deal of verbile could be used to describe the Blue Jays in 2010. Toronto has won 11 of 14 after sweeping another club atop their division in Texas. The Jays lead the AL in home runs with 60, slugging percentage (.459) and total bases (612). They will face Kevin Slowey (4-3, 4.62 ERA) of the Twins and Toronto is 20-11 against right-hand pitchers, averaging 5.8 runs per contest.

The Twins (23-14, +4.5) finally ended their 12-game road losing streak against the Yankees in dramatic fashion with Jason Kubel’s grand slam home run off Mariano Rivera on Sunday. However, the Blue Jays are also tough on Minnesota with 11-3 mark the last couple of years. The Twinkies are -115 ML choice and are 12-2 when favored by -150 or less this season.

If the Rangers (20-18, -0.6) are feeling a little uneasy being in first place in the AL West it’s understandable. After being swept north of the border, they return to Rangers Ballpark and hear the unmistakable rumble of the Angels chasing them. With Texas having lost last three, Los Angeles (18-21, -4.2) won a trio at home over Oakland, bringing them back to within 2.5 games in the division.

Texas is back home where they are 13-7 this season. The Rangers mission for this two-game set is to get into L.A.’s redoubtable bullpen that carries 6.38 ERA (2.118 WHIP) away from home. The Rangers are 24-8 vs. a poor pen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse. The Angels finally got great pitching over the weekend in permitting three total runs to the A’s and had two shutouts.

“We’re only going to go as far as our starters are going to perform,” manager Mike Scioscia said. “If this weekend is any indication, hopefully we’re starting to make some strides forward.”

Inconsistent Scott Kazmir (2-3, 6.82) is the Halos starter and his club is a +140 ML underdog, yet is 14-3 after consecutive wins by four runs or more.

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Baseball Series Wagering - Dodgers vs Padres

Of the various Major League baseball series that had the possibility of being intriguing in the middle of May, this would not have been one of them before the season started. But much like “The little engine that could”, the San Diego Padres (+12.3 units) have the best record in the National League at 22-12 and also have the fattest lead of any division leaders at 3.5 games after sweeping San Francisco at their yard.

Last season a messy divorce between owner John Moores and his wife Becky left the Padres in limbo and the organization was cut to barest of minimums, except for the face of the franchise Adrian Gonzalez. Last year’s rag-a-muffin bunch won 75 games somehow, however most baseball experts considered that a fluke and oddsmakers put a cap of 71 wins on San Diego for 2010 with its new ownership that lacks deep pockets.

What has caused the Pads to be so good this season, tremendous pitching. San Diego leads the NL in ERA at 2.61, as they concede the lowest batting average at .221 and lowest on-base percentage at .291. Those numbers improve at spacious PETCO Park, where the Padres allow a mere 2.4 runs per game, which leads to 11-5 record.

Offensively, San Diego was last in most major categories a season ago and while this group doesn’t remind many of Cincinnati’s “Big Red Machine” of 1970’s, they are at least adequate at 4.3 RPG.

In the series opener, former Dodger John Garland (4-2, 1.71 ERA) will start for the Padres. “Garland has done a heck of a job,” Los Angeles manager Joe Torre told the Dodgers’ official website. “He’s a good guy to settle down a young staff. He’s simple: ‘Just give me the ball.’”

With the L.A. offense scoring 5.3 RPG, San Diego is 9-1 vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs game on the year and is a -140 money line favorite with total Ov7.5. Garland last pitched on Saturday and is 11-1 UNDER when working on five or six days rest over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Dodgers will give the ball to Ramon Ortiz (1-1, 5.16) who is making his first start since May, 26, 2007 after 14 relief appearances this season having spent 2008 in Japan and 2009 in Triple-A.

“It’s been a long time, almost two years,” Ortiz said. “I’m a very positive guy. I knew I could do this, being back in the big leagues.”

Game 1 Edge: San Diego

While much of the state of California wants to boycott Arizona, don’t count the Dodgers (-5.7) among them, after sweeping the Diamondbacks into downtown Phoenix, giving them four straight wins and six of seven to square up their record at 17-17. Los Angeles ownership is going thru the same thing San Diego did as Frank and Jamie McCourt are involved in bitter divorce proceedings which includes who actually owns the team.

Though the Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, they have a team ERA of 4.68, which is 12th in the senior circuit, very un-Dodger like. Because of the divorce, GM Ned Colletti is unable to make any moves that might improve their pitching and is scrambling for five reliable starters and an inconsistent bullpen.

One of the more dependable starters has been Clayton Kershaw (2-2, 3.96) who once again followed up with brilliance off a stinker. He threw just 1 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in allowing seven runs and followed that up with eight shutout innings on two hits and nine strikeouts against Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers are 8-2 when the young lefty pitches the second game of a series and are 27-11 on Saturday’s.

Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97) takes the ball for the Friars, who have averaged 9.2 runs in his six starts. Correia in fact is 20-0 when his team totals four or more runs in his career. San Diego is 5-0 when he the middle game starting pitcher and they are perfect 7-0 against left-handed opposing hurlers since Apr. 20. Correia will pitch with heavy heart, since his brother was tragically killed in hiking accident last week.

Game 2 Edge: Los Angeles

At press time, Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.61) is not officially listed as the starting pitcher for the Padres, though it is his turn in the rotation. The easy tossing port-sider finished last season outstanding and has continued into this year. LeBlanc’s fastball seldom hits 90 MPH, but his late-breaking curveball and devastating change-up causes a large number of ugly swings. This will be the only day game in the series and if he starts as presumed, LeBlanc has 0.82 ERA in two daytime contests.

With L.A.’s lack of maneuverability, the one pitcher Torre needed was Chad Billingsley (3-2, 4.82) who has not had command most of the season. Off last year’s second half fade, Torre has a quick hook for Billingsley, who has yet to pitch past six innings this season for a club that needs extended outings to protect what has been mediocre bullpen work. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.71 ERA in his career against the Padres, 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA at PETCO Park.

Game 3 Edge: San Diego

This I-5 series will be surrounded by ample excitement with Saturday’s conflict a sell-out and the other two contests either will be or very close to. This will be a good test for both clubs still early in the 2010 campaign as a gauge to where they are in the division. As long as San Diego doesn’t get too excited, their superior pitching should be enough to capture the series.

Series odds: Los Angeles Even, San Diego -130

3Daily Winners Pick: San Diego

2010 Record – 2-3

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Will Zack Greinke finally win?

If it wasn’t so absurd it might be laughable for current Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.050 WHIP). Grienke is 11th in the American League in ERA and seventh in WHIP, yet he has not registered a victory this season pitching for the Kansas City Royals.

At this time a year ago he had six wins and all the talented right-hander can say is “I’m just trying to keep us in ball games. We’re just getting beat right now,” Greinke stated.

The Royals lack of success falls into one broad pool. The Royals ace has to be perfect every time because his offense is objectionable. In his seven starts Kansas City hitters have scored a grand total of 17 runs, 2.4 per outing. K.C. is 1-6 in Greinke’s outings and he’s placed them in position to win two other games, but the bullpen blew those opportunities.

The Royals will look to avoid being swept by Cleveland at home. The Indians are on a three-game winning streak and have three consecutive double digit hit games in a row for the first time this season. This is certainly a rarity for club with a .248 team batting average.

David Huff (1-4, 4.60, 1.500) will toe the rubber for the Tribe, looking to avoid a fourth straight loss. Huff has really struggled of late with 7.16 ERA in three previous trips to the mound, allowing 34 hits + walks combined in 16.1 innings. Of the 25 base hits conceded, six were home runs which takes his total to seven dingers in only five starts.

Sportsbooks have the Indians as +170 money line underdogs and they fall into a negative super system.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs a start.

Kansas City has lost seven in a row and won’t run into many better opportunities than this for a much needed victory. Since 1997, this system is 87-24, 78.4 percent with the favorite winning by two runs on average. Greinke is 5-7 lifetime against Cleveland but is 3-0, with 2.52 ERA in his last six starts against the Indians.

If Greinke pitches his usual game and Huff continues to be ineffective, every reason to believe the Tribe falls to 13-37 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters.

Wednesday's Top Action

Tuesday’s results were 1-1, not the stuff of legends but 36-20, 64.2 percent isn’t too bad. SR was correct with his Free Play and looks in the same exact direction for the next one. The Top Trend shows the Brew Crew in an uncomfortable situation. The Best System is an AL Central showdown at 83.7 percent. Good Luck

What I did today- In afternoon MLB action, I took the Reds and Twinkies. If you would like to receive my free plays on regular basis, sign up to the right.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like the White Sox with a money line of +125 to +175, a meager AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up a home run once every other start. This system clocks in at 83.7 percent, 41-8.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Milwaukee Brewers are 1-11 revenging a home loss vs opponent of six runs or more over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 9-1 the last three days and expects the Rays again to shine over Halos.

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Tuesday's Top MLB Systems

On this Tuesday in baseball, some series start and others continue, but opportunity is always present for the sports bettor. We unleash five MLB systems from five different contests, three on the sides and two totals for you to consider today. Take a few minutes to read over and see what catches your eye as potential wagering options.

Seattle at Baltimore 7:05E

The Mariners ended their disastrous 1-8 homestand with a win on Sunday and travel cross-country to the East Coast to begin an eight-game road excursion. After scoring 12 total runs and being shut-out three times, Seattle had rare outburst in 8-1 victory over division partner Los Angeles of Anaheim. The M’s are next to last in the American League in batting average and road teams with a batting average below .255, off a win by six or more runs are 41-15 UNDER in next outing.

Toronto at Boston 7:10E

The Blue Jays have been among baseball’s best surprises in 2010; however they haven’t been hard to figure for Boston. Toronto has lost all four games to the Red Sox in this new campaign, as Brandon Morrow was pathetic after his club had given him a 4-2 lead in the second inning last evening. Morrow allowed six runs in just 1 2/3 innings, walking six batters and permitting three hits. This placed quite a burden on the bullpen and Toronto lost 7-6.

Dana Eveland will try and break the spell Boston has had on Toronto, however despite 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA, Eveland has more walks than strikeouts in his 35+ innings (17 vs.16). The Blue Jays as +150 money line underdogs and teams with with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per outing, after a game where the bullpen threw six or more innings, are 10-56 the last five seasons.

Houston at St. Louis 8:15E

The Astros have set up camp at the bottom of the NL Central and are giving indications they might not be leaving any time soon. Houston is the only team in the National League that has yet to score 100 runs on the season (85 total runs = 2.7 RPG). And Houston certainly does have a problem with a power outage, sending only 13 baseballs over the fence with the league’s mean average at 30 dingers.

Newly acquired Bret Myers (1-2, 3.67 ERA) has been more than adequate and would have better record with improved run support. However the ‘Stros are +210 road underdogs and clubs averaging less a home run per contest with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better are merely 15-66 since 2006.

Chicago at Minnesota 8:10E

For years, the Metrodome was a “house of horrors” for the White Sox having lost 15 of last 18 at the indoor facility. Chicago is hoping a move outdoors will be a benefit for them and will have Freddy Garcia (5.38 ERA) on the mound after a game in which he did not give up a home run or walk a batter.

Minnesota is a -168 ML favorite and leads the AL Central and is second to Tampa Bay in ERA at 3.51. AL favorites of -150 or higher, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game against opponents starting pitcher, who did not walk a hitter in last outing are 87-26.

Los Angeles at Arizona 9:40E

The state of Arizona is under siege nationally for its new immigration law and the Diamondbacks bullpen is feeling similar pressure, not getting anyone out. Arizona’s pen has eye-popping ERA of 7.09, 4-8 record and five blown saves in 12 tries.

Tonight they turn to their ace Dan Haren (4-1, 1.224 WHIP) to end four-game losing streak and hope he give his usual seven or more strong innings to save the beleaguered bullpen. With the total a spot on nine, home teams with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the year, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games and with a posted total by oddsmakers of 9 or 9.5, are 33-8 UNDER. All systems from the Foxsheets.

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