Elite 8 Saturday

A good comeback effort on Friday with two winners and just one loss. For Saturday we have Top Trend in the West Regional that is near perfect. Our Best system just misses the 80 percent mark, but does yield two plays that could take it over the threshold. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- It never ceases to amaze me that in sports if you have a weakness, eventually it will be found by somebody. That was true last night of St. Mary’s, Ohio State and Northern Iowa.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinnersdailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Two teams actually fit this system that is 35-9 ATS, 79.5 percent. They are the Lakers and Jazz, with this system 7-1 this year.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Kansas State is 12-1 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick is 17-4 since Sunday and his play for today is Utah at -8.5 over Washington.

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Will the Butler do it?

This or similar headlines will appear across the country for the West Regional final and what it lacks in originally, it makes up for in convenience. A season ago, NCAA administrators realized they could have a home court advantage on their hands and while they welcomed the extra revenue of having Michigan State make it to the championship game, they had to be pleased that talent won out and North Carolina won the title, thus avoiding criticism for a team having football sized crowd edge in the sports most important contest.

Here we are one year later and the very same thing could occur again if Butler (31-4, 15-20 ATS) wins yet again, this time taking down the No. 2 seed out West in Kansas State (29-7, 21-9-1 ATS). Either way, the Bulldogs are heading back to Indianapolis after this Elite Eight encounter, but they might be doing so as the unofficial host of the Final Four with the triumph.

Butler was the aggressor all night against top-seeded Syracuse and out-worked the Orangemen over large expanses of the contest. The Bulldogs put Syracuse on the defensive from the start in building 10-point halftime lead. Butler’s greatness and toughness came to light after Syracuse had stormed back to take 54-50. Butler showed bulldog determination, scoring the next 11 points and the Orangemen’s tank went to empty. No wonder these Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS as underdogs.

Kansas State overcame more disappointments than a Cubs fan Thursday night in finally getting Xavier to succumb 101-96 in double overtime, with backers earning surprising Push. The Musketeers were like a cat, with Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway draining big shot after big shot to keep Xavier coming back time after time.

The Wildcats had guards that could also perform in the clutch as Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente totaled 53 points (compared to Xavier duo that had 58). When the K-State got to the century mark in points, Xavier’s nine lives had expired and the Wildcats are 12-1 ATS after one or more Over’s this season.

Bookmaker.com has Kansas State as four-point favorites to advance to Final Four for the first time since 1964. The Wildcats are 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season, but will have less 40 hours to rest and recover from a taxing contest with so much at stake. With the total at 134.5, K-State is 16-6 OVER away from Manhattan having won four of their last five games.
Butler would prefer to change the pace of this matchup, since they are 5-12 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5.The Bulldogs are 15-6 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight contests, winning by 8.1 points a game.

This West finale starts just after 4:30 Eastern and in the last 21 years, only twice has a 5-seed faced a 2-seed in this round and each time the lower seed pulled the outright upset. (In 2005 and 1996)

Top seeds picked to previal out West

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters. Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Bookmaker.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a 4.5-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Saturday night is about Wildcats

High seeds Kentucky and Kansas State will complete a full day of Round 2 action after dark in locations east of the Mississippi River. Each of these Wildcat squads are favored, but not by large amounts as they seek to avoid the upset and move on to Sweet 16.

Wake Forest will have to play big

Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) played their most complete game in a month in taking down Texas 81-80 in OT as five-point underdogs. Guard Ishmael Smith’s last shot was a swish, which helped him finish with 19 points, 12 boards and a victory. The next task will be far more daunting and you can forgive coach Dino Gaudio for inquiring about what eligibility the Ivan Brothers have left after watching tape on Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS).

The Wildcats are the biggest team in college basketball, having NBA-size in the frontcourt and they looked similarly imposing in handing East Tennessee State its exit papers 100-71 as 18.5-point favorites. Though Wake Forest’s strength is its baseline players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Kentucky is 6-0 ATS on the road versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game on the season. The Demon Deacons are nine-point underdogs, but that might work for them since Wake is 12-4 ATS catching points the last two seasons, losing by one point a game in that situation.

K-State out to tames Cougars offense

The other Wildcats had a similarly easy time with first round foe North Texas, as Kansas State (27-7, 20-9 ATS) turned the Mean Green into Gumby with 20-point thumping. The Wildcats guard tandem of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen will have to not only score, but play defense against BYU (30-5, 19-13 ATS) who can match points with any team in the country.

The Cougars need two overtimes to finally frustrate Florida 99-92 and grab a fairly remarkable cover. Remarkable only begins to tell the story of Jimmer Fredette, who finished with 37 points. Fredette is the heart and soul of BYU and his point total matched Danny Ainge from 29 years ago, for tournament school record. The junior guard was clutch, with 29 of his points scored after halftime. The Kansas State guards are not dutiful defenders and the Wildcats are only 5-14 ATS when out of Manhattan versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game.

K-State is 4.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 155 and they are exquisite 7-1 ATS facing teams who make eight or more three bombs a game on the year. The Cougars will try and force the pace of the game even higher, as they are 6-0 ATS in road games when they score 81 to 86 points.

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

Big Games in Big 12 and Big East

In many ways, postseason tournaments are a silly exercise, where three or four days of basketball can wipe away or enhance four months of toiling for players and coaches. However, in the Big 12 and Big East, at least this season, all four nationally ranked teams are already going to the Big Dance and this one is for honor and recognition, played out in prime time on ESPN. It promises to be quite a Saturday night.

Sunflower state battle

The sunflower might be a beautiful delicate flower, which will be in direct contrast to the bragging rights one final time (maybe), as Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Big 12 title in Kansas City.

The Jayhawks are the top team in the land and have owned their state partner, with 30-2 and 22-10 ATS record dating back to 1997. Kansas won both games this season, but Kansas State is not worrying about the past.

“That’s our goal (winning the Big 12 championship) right now,” said Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen, who’s averaging a team-leading 19.1 points. “We have the opportunity in front of us.” The Wildcats just missed knocking off Kansas at Manhattan, falling 81-79 in overtime as four point underdogs.

Kansas State has handled two good clubs in downing Oklahoma State and Baylor in this tournament and is 15-3 and 10-4 ATS after covering the spread this season. K-State coach Frank Martin is cautiously optimistic about this contest.

“I’ve got to think that it’s going to be the best environment of any conference championship game in the country,” Martin said. “I just hope we play well, because if not, it might be a long day against those guys.” His squad is 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas has to be one CBS analyst Clark Kellogg’s favorite teams since he can use one of his favorite pet words “spurtability”. The Jayhawks can look disinterested, matching baskets and quicker than Manny Pacquiao jab, the Jayhawks will run off eight straight points to take control, which is basically how they’ve handled both Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Kansas earned just their fourth cover in 13 tries in win over Aggies.

The Jayhawks are 5.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com with total of 147.5 and the favorite is 18-6 ATS, with the last six bitter battles producing 5-1 OVER mark. ESPN has the Big 12 title game between these Top 10 teams at 6:00 Eastern.

Cream to the top in Big Apple

The Big East Tournament has turned into lunacy the last several years with a myriad of upsets and unusual happenings, but in the end, it seems the best teams always emerge in the finals. Georgetown has gotten what it needs from its best three players to advance to this point at Madison Square Garden. Greg Monroe (serious player of the tourney candidate), Chris Wright and Austin Freeman have led the charge for the eighth-seeded Hoyas, who are 5-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season.

West Virginia is chasing a number of factors Saturday night. The Mountaineers were the only top four seed to advance in this tournament and rumors are circulating a Big East title might push them up to No.1 seed depending on how everything shakes out. West Virginia has never won this tournament and the players comprehend the significance.

“It would mean the world to me, just because it would be the first one, and I was part of the team,” star forward Da’Sean Butler said. “It would be something special.” The Mountaineers have yet to lose in tourney action this season with 5-0 record, but are 2-3 ATS.

West Virginia is hopeful peculiar spread run continues, at least for the short term. Coach Bob Huggins squad is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games and has covered two and failed to cover two in blocks since Jan. 26. The Teers have not covered their last two games and hopes things change to their benefit this time around.

West Virginia has won and covered previous two meetings, but lost to G-Town 72-55 in the semi-finals in this event in 2008. The Mountaineers played for the title in 2005, before falling to Syracuse. Georgetown is making third appearance in the final game in four years and 13th overall in its 30-year history.

“At the end of the day, now it’s the championship game,” Monroe said. “I know as a team we came here to win this tournament, and I mean, (Saturday) the lights are going to be on. We have to be prepared to play.”

The Hoyas are two-point underdogs with total of 132.5, with the tipoff set for just after 9:00 Eastern.

Thursday's Stuff

We were 2-1 on Tuesday and have an 81.1 percent system in the WAC. The Big 12 gives us perfect trend and Kendall looks to keep piling up winners with Top Play. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- How in some ways this basketball is better than the NCAA Tournament, because of what happens.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Utah State after nine or more consecutive wins, with a win percentage over 80 percent, playing a marginal losing team 40% to 49%. This totals up to 45-10 ATS, 81.8 percent, with an 8-1 mark this season.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas State is 10-0 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 37-15 in last 52 plays and is backing Texas A&M as top play.

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Super Wednesday of College Hoops

While all the talk in college basketball is about seeds, brackets, who’s in and who’s out, the college basketball bettor is focused on one thing, what winners can I find today? Sports bettors live in two worlds, the present, trying to win, or the past, reflecting on the prior wins and losses. The former is a healthy trait, particularly when a number of consequential contests are on tap, which keep the Joe Lunardi’s of the world employed. (Note –In the world of full disclosure, Lunardi does have a real job, Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications at Saint Joseph's University and does color commentary for men's basketball team)

Luke Who?

Time to fess up, even if you are a Notre Dame fanatic, drinking the blue and gold kool-aid, the only basketball team that was going to play in the NCAA Tournament was the women’s once Luke Harangody went down. Three punch-in-the-gut losses left Notre Dame at 17-10, with ranked teams Pittsburgh and Georgetown up next, the dreaded acronym – NIT – was being used again. Yet, after suffering those defeats, senior guard Tory Jackson and sharp shooter Tim Abromaitis have taken the team on their backs and gotten other players to follow suit and all of the sudden the Irish are fighting NCAA Tournament bid.

Notre Dame (19-10, 12-10-1 ATS) isn’t necessarily a better team without Harangody, who will be honored on senior night, though is not expected to play with bone bruise on his knee. What changed is Jackson and Abromaitis decided to become more assertive and others like Tyrone Nash, Carlton Scott and seldom used Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley have followed their lead. The Fighting Irish are a confident club, fighting to be invited to the field of 65. Notre Dame has covered four of last five and is 16-3 (7-6 ATS) at home.

Standing in their way is an even more desperate team in Connecticut (17-12, 11-15-1 ATS). The Huskies have to win their last two games in the Big East and probably a couple in the postseason tournament to have chance. From a purely talent perspective, the Huskies are probably the better team, but inconsistency has plagued UConn who is 17-33 ATS on the road after consecutive home games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame as two-point choice and they are 7-17 ATS after covering the spread over the last two seasons. Connecticut is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog and will look to derail the Irish’s hopes while enhancing their own dreams. The Huskies have won six of previous seven meetings with five covers for this 7:00 Eastern ESPN contest.

Dorothy, we are in Kansas

Coach Frank Martin might rub more than a few folks the wrong way with his barking dog delivery on the sidelines, Mike Singletary steely eyes and bluntness in describing what he sees. Let those people whine while Kansas State turns into Big 12 power and at least this year, Wildcats backers clean up. K-State is 22-4 and still harbors an outside chance to tie for conference crown and is 17-6 against the spread. The last time Kansas State was ranked fifth in the country was 42 years ago, when their coach was Tex Winter (accredited for the triangle offense) and Lakers coach Phil Jackson was 13 years old. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game this season.

Martin has shown to be an “everything” person, he wants to win the Big 12, win the national championship and whatever else he can accomplish. To have a chance, his club must beat Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS) in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks were removed from No. 1 perch losing at Oklahoma State four days ago and will seek to reestablish themselves quickly against in-state rival. This game will be rock, chalk, jayhawk full of emotion for guard Sherron Collins. The senior leader will be making his final appearance at Allen Fieldhouse and will want to maintain Kansas’ 58-game home winning streak, the longest in the country. Kansas is 12-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

The Jayhawks are a nine-point favorite, with total of 149.5 and are 11-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game and are 7-1 UNDER playing only their second tilt in eight days. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests and 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.

ACC title on the line

The Atlantic Coast Conference has not received its usual acclaim this season, with North Carolina plummeting to unforeseen depths and many others being merely pedestrian. Duke and Maryland have managed to stay above the mediocrity and will battle in an important ACC clash.

Maryland (21-7, 14-9 ATS) is a game behind Duke in the standings and jacked-up for senior night. The Terrapins fans will salute seniors Landon Milbourne, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

“In the beginning of year, when I looked at the schedule and saw Duke on Senior Night, I got pretty excited,” Milbourne said Tuesday. “Now, it’s even bigger because we’re fighting for the regular-season title. We’ve been trying to get this chance since I’ve been here, and it’s finally here.” The Terps have won five consecutive games, 11 of 13 and are 14-4 ATS at home off three straight wins against ACC rivals.

It’s difficult to fathom, but only in the last week or two has Duke (25-4, 17-10-1 ATS) been really considered in the hierarchy of college basketball this season. Perceptions are hard to break and the Blue Devils have been an overrated team the last few years. This team is different, with production in the paint, a +5 rebound margin and positive contributions coming off the bench. Duke isn’t going to win if two if their big three have off-nights (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), however they have found the answer when one of the trio hasn’t been in top form regularly. Duke is 9-0 ATS versus high-powered offensive teams dropping 77 or more points a game this season.

The Dukies are a short one-point favorite at the sold-out Comcast Center, with total of 146.5. Duke is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite, which they were at Virginia (67-49) and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less. Coach Gary Williams might need two suits the way he perspires, yet he has to like his club’s chances since they are 17-6 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread.

This is the late game on ESPN and the Blue Devils have taken last five (4-0-1 ATS) during the regular season and are 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at College Park the last dozen years.

Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

CBB HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES…

HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES… Know Where Your Team Performs Best

With the 2009-10 College Hoops regular season entering the month before the Big Dance, it’s important to get a pulse on how teams are performing both at home and on the road this campaign.

While there is no certainty that teams will continue to either over-or-under achieve in their best or worst roles, there is no sense in hoping teams will change their stripes at this stage of the season.

Let’s examine the Top Five best and the very worst results by teams in games played at home and on the road through Monday, January 31of this season. All results are ATS…

COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME TEAMS

Moneymakers:

1. Kansas State 7-1
2. San Jose State 7-1
3. Villanova 5-1
4. Wichita State 5-1-1
5. Oklahoma State 4-1-1

Moneyburners:

1. Duquesne 0-5
2. Massachusetts 0-5
3. TCU 1-9
4. Penn State 1-7
5. South Alabama 1-7-1

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROAD TEAMS

Moneymakers:
1. St. Mary’s 6-1
2. Maryland 5-1
3. Mississippi 5-1
4. Northern Iowa 5-1-1
5. Syracuse, Villanova 4-1

Moneyburners:

1. Denver 0-8
2. Washington 0-5
3. California 0-4-1
4. Stanford 1-7
5. Ohio State, Western Kentucky 1-6

There you have it. The best and worst performances by teams in a starring role to date this season. While not quite Oscar worthy, it’s best to remember that forewarned is forearmed…

Written by Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com.

College Hoops Dominates Landscape

For a lot of casual bettors and fans, this is really the kickoff of the college basketball season. Forget the fact that more than half the season has already been played, with no football this weekend (unless you consider the Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl football) a vast number of people start turning their attention towards college hoops and beginning mentally prepping for March Madness which is not that many weeks away. Here is a look at some of the top matches this weekend on the collegiate hardwood. Sides and total from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 3o

Louisville at West Virginia (-7, 137.5) 12:00E ESPN

Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS), playing in the Big East is going to face more than their fair share of challenging opponents and as per usual went out of conference to face a number of tough hombres. Come tournament time that helps your resume, however it really helps the confidence of the team to beat a Top 25 club, not just play with them. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS against ranked teams and will have another shot to improve against West Virginia. The Cards are 18-7 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.

Since its fast start, West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS) has been erratic in its play since 2010 began with 5-3 and 3-5 ATS record. Continual 40 minute effort has been lacking, with the Mountaineers playing like characters in a Rob Zombie movie, with no visible signs of emotion. What has curtailed West Virginia’s excellence is their star players have not been playing like stars. Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks have been off their game somewhat and it has had a trickle affect on the team. They will look to find earlier rhythm and are 38-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three point shots a game.

Louisville has failed to cover their last five contests; however is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against West Virginia the last dozen years.

Duke at Georgetown (+2, 141.5) 1:00E CBS

As opposed to previous few seasons, this Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) team could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament instead of being bounced early on. This matchup with Georgetown will be a good barometer where the Blue Devils are at present and what improvements they should work on. Credit Kyle Singler for finding ways to work thru shooting slump. Instead of just firing away, he brought his game closer to the basket, taking more 10-15 foot shots and worked the offensive glass, building confidence until he was back in groove for team that is 11-21 ATS against the Big East.

The same measuring stick can all be used by Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS), who was scorched by Syracuse 73-56 after starting the contest with 14-0 lead. The Hoyas Greg Monroe has become the focal point of the team, delivering all over the floor and his desire to run on the break not only shows hustle, but a willingness to be team player, hungry to win. In reviewing Georgetown’s season, one fact sticks out like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeries, if Chris Wright doesn’t play well, the Hoyas will labor to be victorious. G-Town is a raunchy 11-22 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.

Duke comes in 10-4 ATS off a win like they enjoyed over Florida State, while Georgetown is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference tilts. With both teams ranked, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in five previous meetings.

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-7.5, 145.5) 2:00E ESPN

The top three teams in the Big 12 have been established, but who is one rung down? We’ll start to find out with this encounter. Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) is a smallish team, too dependent on outside shooting, which explains them ranking ninth in the conference in buckets made. When the offense breaks down, all eyes turn to guard James Anderson to bail them out. Though Anderson his very good player, he can’t be counted on to make shots from bad spots on the floor with the shot clock winding down. The Cowboys are going to have to step up after losing two of last three as visitors and are 26-43 ATS as a road underdog or pick.

Missouri’s unique brand of basketball is a little like the triple option in football, you can simulate it in practice, but that doesn’t mean you are ready for it in games. The Tigers (15-5, 8-6 ATS) defensive pressure forces over 20 turnovers a game, however what coach Mike Anderson’s club doesn’t get credit for is defending the perimeter, allowing the lowest three-point percentage of buckets made in the Big 12. Missouri’s front line looks to matchup and secure a draw, being inexperienced and having the guards to score points. The Tigers are 21-12 ATS as a favorite since last year.

Okie State has a three game win streak in the works and is 17-5-1 ATS off a SU victory. Missouri is perfect 12-0 at home this season (5-2 ATS) and is 21-6 against the spread in last 27 contests in Columbia. The straight up winner is 8-1-1 ATS since 2002.

Washington State at Washington (-8.5, 156) 3:30E FSN

Alright, the Pac-10 has a foul odor about it and even the Patriot League looks more interesting this season. Nonetheless, somebody has to win this conference and these two teams believe they can answer the bell to be that team. Washington State (14-6, 6-11 ATS) is your classic ADHD team, seldom focusing for long periods of time without drifting into other thoughts. Coach Ken Bone is looking a more even keel approach and threatened to start sitting players if they are not ready to play, even star Klay Thompson. The Cougars are 10-19 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game.

Coach Lorenzo Romar had seen enough. After three indifferent Pac-10 performances that ended up being losses, coach Romar inserted forward Justin Holiday into the starting lineup and he set the table with his defensive energy for others to follow. Senior Quincy Pondexter was pleased with the shakeup, since as a senior; he wants to win the Pac-10 title. Unfortunately, Washington (13-7) went to Los Angeles last weekend and was swept by the L.A. universities leaving them three games behind California in the Pac-10 chase. The Huskies want to hurry the pace and are 35-18 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points.

Washington is one of the worst bets in college basketball at 5-14 ATS. The Huskies have taken nine of last 12 at Bank of America Arena in the Apple Cup rivalry, but have played like dogs with just four covers.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-8.5, 154) 4:00E ESPN

Two weeks ago this SEC showdown would have been footnote in most newspapers across the country. That has abruptly changed with what has happen the last 14 days. Vanderbilt (16-3, 10-6 ATS) is the last unbeaten team in the conference with their impressive 85-76 win at Tennessee as six-point underdogs. That gave the Commodores 10 straight wins (7-2 ATS) and they are bubbling to the top as one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49.8 percent. Vandy shooters have been dandy, making less than half their attempts just twice in this streak. This underappreciated squad is 13-2 and 10-4 ATS off a SU triumph.

Top-ranked Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS) was the last unbeaten to fall, being demonized by South Carolina guard Devan Downey, who literally threw in 30 points against the Wildcats. Coach John Calipari was mildly disappointed, more frustrated his team was outworked. However like any good coach, he’s not going to dwell on one defeat. “It’s a great lesson,” Calipari said. “A lot of times, until you take an ‘L’ they don’t want to believe you. Especially with how young we are.” Kentucky may be a young team, however the most shocking aspect from the loss was the no-show performance from junior Patrick Patterson, who totaled five points (0 in last 20 minutes) and lacked any sort of assertiveness they may have made the difference, especially from an upperclassman. The Cats are 8-0 and 5-1 ATS off a non-cover.

Kentucky will face a far more balanced team in Vanderbilt than they witnessed at South Carolina. Playing before Ashley Judd and the rest of the zealous Kentucky fans will be a big plus, along with being 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS against Vandy since 1998 in Lexington.

Kansas at Kansas State (+4, 155) 7:00E ESPN

Though Kansas (19-1,9-7-1 ATS) probably is the most talented team in the country, it hasn’t shown the killer instinct that of the club that won the national championship two years ago. The Jayhawks will go on auto-pilot emotionally and as coach Bill Self acknowledged, this group doesn’t like to embarrass opponents and flex their intimidation muscles like their predecessors. Kansas is 10-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season, but if they don’t bring a bucket of raw emotion like did in mauling Missouri this past Monday, they could stumble again.

Kansas State’s got game, a lot of game. The Wildcats (17-3, 11-4 ATS) not only have a sound backcourt, their frontline has proven to be vastly underrated. Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels have found ways to score in the paint and Luis Colon can be a defensive presence when not committing senseless fouls. Though Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente make a terrific backcourt combination, Rodney McGruder has a spark plug off the bench as third guard and will eat up more minutes if either of the other two is having off night. K-State is 9-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or points game this campaign.

This series is not a pantisocracy, with Kansas 11-1 SU and ATS at Bramlage Coliseum since 1997.

Sunday, Jan. 31

Florida at Tennessee (-7.5, 141 ) 1:00E CBS

Coach Billy Donovan has a conundrum. “I have a hard time figuring these guys out sometimes,” Donovan said. This is the main reason why Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) stumbled out of the SEC gate and is trying to play catch up in the formidable East Division. Among the problems is forward Dan Werner’s prolonged shooting slump. Though guard Erving Walker has been drilling shots beyond the arc, other than Alex Tyus, game to game the scoring has been spotty. The better teams continue to beat the Gators off dribble penetration and they do a poor job on rotation giving up too many easy buckets. They have strung together four SEC wins playing three of those games in Gainesville, but must be sound defensively since Florida is 0-7 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

This might be Bruce Pearl’s best coaching job. Losing four players to suspension (two returned) and having to end the career of his best player Tyler Smith for transgressions, Pearl helped unite his squad and they accepted responsibility. Often the merry prince, senior center Wayne Chism immediately thrust himself into leadership role and his on-court play jumped markedly. Presumed freshman sensation Kenny Hall was buried on the Tennessee bench, however after the upheaval; he’s become instant energy off the bench for the Vols. Veterans J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Bobby Maze have all become better players particularly on defense.

The Vols (15-4, 8-8 ATS) are 11-3 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots, but have failed to connect on more than 44 percent in last four games, losing the last two outright as favorites. Has the emotion worn off for Tennessee and now they are starting to feel the pain of not having Smith? Everyone finds out since the Volunteers are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS vs. Florida the last 12 seasons.

Maryland at Clemson (-4.5, 145 ) 5:30E FSN

The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained level of more consistent play. Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with and everyone will have to play well against Clemson’s full court press. They Terps are 16-6 ATS in road games since 2007.

Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them and fallen behind and made furious comebacks, coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the pendulum not swing as dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.

Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with 4-6-1 ATS mark.

Super Tuesday

Let’s jump into the NBA today and take a look at team that is 80.6 percent. Not hard to locate with just two games. The Top Trend finds a SEC team in a near perfect spot as an underdog. The Top Free Play follows what suddenly losing Purdue might do on Super Tuesday. Good Luck

What I thought last night - Sports bettors yesterday saw this coming, just not in the manner it occurred. Kansas State opened as Pick at home against top ranked Texas and were quickly bet up to 1.5-point favorites on the morning line, before settling to one point by game time.

It wasn’t so much a complete surprise Kansas State pulled the upset, since they had proven to be a very good basketball team. It was the manner in which the Wildcats won that will cause many to take a second look at both teams.

Kansas State was supposed to be a decided disadvantage in the front court, this ended up not being true. Chris Kelly and Jamar Samuels were both impressive in totaling 37 points and 20 rebounds combined. Dexter Pittman and Damion James were presumed to superior to what the Wildcats would have to offer up front, however they scored just 15 points and grabbed 14 boards as a combo and Pittman in particular seemed passive after getting roughed up early.

K-State was the aggressor from the start, playing better defense and being the smarter team. The upset, at least from rankings perspective, is all the more amazing when you consider Jacob Pullen was 2-15 shooting (0-6 on 3’s) and committed five turnovers.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On good shooting teams like Cleveland making 48 percent or better on the season, after a game they allowed of 55 percent or higher. This system is 29-7 ATS, 80.6 percent the last five seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Alabama is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick, winning by three points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection Consensus likes Purdue to wake up and cover the spread as favorites.

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Holy Crap, Big Monday is REALLY BIG

The Texas Longhorns were voted No.1 in the rankings for the first time last week and found out how thorny that crown can be, holding on to win at Iowa State and being pushed to overtime at home by Texas A&M before surviving this past week. The next test could be the toughest, at No.13 Kansas State. Syracuse pulled the upset at West Virginia and faces a hungry Notre Dame team that always plays better at home and off a heart-breaking loss.

Syracuse at Notre Dame 7:00E ESPN

Both the Orangemen and the Fighting Irish were engaged in close hard fought battles Saturday, the former emerged victorious, while the latter was beaten in the final seconds.

Syracuse held on at West Virginia 72-71, nearly blowing a 10-point lead in the final 80 seconds. That moved the Orangemen to 17-1 (11-3 ATS) on the year, as they continue to be one of the best shooting teams in the country at 53.4 percent, with the ability to score inside with Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku or the perimeter with a number of sharp-shooters from deep hitting 39.2 percent beyond the arc. This year’s Orangemen are much better defensively than the previous couple of years and they are 8-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less.

Notre Dame (14-4, 7-4-1 ATS) had a nip and tuck affair with Cincinnati, succumbing late 60-58. It was rare off-game for Luke Harangody, making just 5 or 20 shot attempts. Harangody admitted he missed shots he usually doesn’t, however did take more off-balance shots than he normally does. The Big East usually doesn’t leave much room for error, as coach Mike Brey explained.

“I told our guys, in this league when you have a game on Monday, you can’t dwell on it,” Brey said after the loss. “We have to get back to South Bend and get our legs under us.” The Irish are 20-35 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival.

Syracuse is going off as three-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS as visitors playing against a team with a winning record this season. The total is 158 and the Orangemen are 9-1 OVER after a win by six points or less over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 6-0 UNDER at home off a Big East loss since last season and 6-17 ATS in South Bend when the total is 150 to 159.5.
The Fighting Irish are 3-7 and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times the ‘Cuse has come calling.

Texas at Kansas State 9:00E ESPN

The Longhorns have played a number of very good clubs this season and has played at an extremely high level except for a couple blips here and there. This road encounter is against one of the best teams in the Big 12 who would savor the opportunity to take down one of the nation’s No. 1 team. One edge Texas (17-0, 8-5 ATS) has is in the frontcourt with Damion James, Dexter Pittman and Gary Johnson. Though Kansas State has solid players on the baseline, they don’t matchup well in this department. That said the atmosphere will be electric at Bramlage Coliseum, which could offset the Longhorns talent edge with the emotion of the building. Coach Rick Barnes team has been an awful team in Big 12 play with 5-16 ATS record the last two years.

The Wildcats (15-2, 9-3 ATS) will depend on their puissant backcourt of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. With all the talent Texas has at the guard position, they don’t have two individuals that complement one another as well as this duo. Pullen can drain the three-ball and Clemente has superior court presence. Kansas State has to play their game to upset Texas and that means being disruptive on defense, where they average nearly 20 points per game off turnovers.

“We understand we’re getting ready to walk into a buzz saw,” coach Frank Martin said about facing Texas. “That’s why those kids signed up and came to play for us. Those are the kinds of games they wanted to be in.” The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS at home having won four of their last four games over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has this important matchup has the Longhorns as 1.5-point underdogs, with total of 159. Texas is off to their best start since 1932 and is just 1-11 ATS off a win against a conference foe and is 14-5 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. K-State is 7-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season and is 13-4 OVER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

These Big 12 squads have split last six meetings in Manhattan SU and against the number.

Best Bets in College Basketball

College basketball has evolved into conference play and a number of teams have gaudy records, some are of value and others not. In the sports wagering game of cat and mouse, spread wins and losses supersede conventional win/loss numbers, as team’s heavy one way or the other draw the scrutiny of those setting the lines. Let’s face it, understanding information is the key to winning consistently, along with an instinct to spot a winner based on various factors. Here we will look at a number of the top winning college basketball teams covering the spread and if they are a good or bad bet going deeper into the season.

St. Mary’s (14-2, 13-2 ATS)

The Gaels lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad, including the brilliant Paddy Mills and figured to finish no better than third place in what could a down year for the West Coast Conference. It was fairly easy to make the argument that St. Mary’s was burned by the NCAA after being snubbed with 28-7 record, primarily because Mills suffered hand injury and the team faltered because of that down the stretch. Players like center Omar Samhan vowed to make sure that wouldn’t happen again and has kept his word thus far. It would be incorrect to call the Gaels schedule imposing; nevertheless, they’ve faced teams that at least deserved to have a spread in virtually every contest. St. Mary’s is a patient offensive team, shooting almost 50 percent and works the ball around for good shoots in coach Randy Bennett’s offense. Defensively, the Gaels are adequate in holding opponents to around 42 percent shooting and as usual are lights out at tiny McKeon Pavilion (3,500 capacity) with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS record. St. Mary’s notoriety mostly comes from playing Gonzaga; oddsmakers won’t pay a great deal of attention to them as long as they don’t enter the Top 25 or make a lot of headlines. Should be able to secure a fair price on the Gaels in the coming weeks.

Texas (15-0, 8-3 ATS)

Coach Rick Barnes Longhorns are very deserving of high ranking and for a club this high on the charts, have covered an abnormal amount of games. In trying to understand why, Texas has faced an exceptional non-conference slate, which has presented less inflated numbers that would correlate with top-notch status. The Longhorns have proven they have the skill and depth to override opposing teams. This has been particularly true against teams that compete with Texas for 25-30 minutes, then players that could start for most of the Horns opponents, overwhelm them down the stretch as these bench players and fresher starters are able to play their game against worn out foe. Texas is 8-3 ATS as favorite, but is not lock they appear. Coach Barnes has to get after his guys from time to time, since they are so skilled on offense; they kept caught up in making buckets instead of defending the basket. Most of the time they will be able to overcome this and cover inflated numbers, but as was the case in the Arkansas road conflict, they surrendered 48 first half points and never was close to covering the 14-point spread due to lack of defensive intensity.

Kansas State (13-2, 7-3 ATS)

The Manhattan ‘Cats were supposed to be good, but not this good! Though Bob Huggins stay was just one season, he made an indelible mark on the program and coach Frank Martin continued right where Huggins left off. Kansas State’s depth allows Martin to sit any player who is not going all out on the floor. Martin wants his players like a Motorhead CD, aggressive on offense, defense and crashing the boards. The Wildcats are blessed with an exceptional backcourt. Shooting guard Jacob Pullen can scorch the nylon and really heat up beyond the arc. Denis Clemente pushes the ball with his blazing speed for easy layups or passes for spot up three’s by teammates. K-State lacks that one consistent scorer in the paint, nonetheless junior Curtis Kelly and Luis Colon have played better this season. Kansas State will see inflated numbers at Bramlage Coliseum, however are still worth consideration if opponent is weak defensively (44 percent shooting percentage or higher). On the road, taking the purple clad ‘Cats as underdogs is good wager, as long as the opposing team has an average or less backcourt, which Clemente and Pullen could run roughshod on. This team feeds on emotion and is 11-2 and 6-2 ATS after a victory.

Oregon State (7-8, 8-2 ATS)

At the beginning of 2010, the general appearance is coach Craig Robinson, might be having a better first quarter than is brother in law (The President) in the court of public opinion. The Oregon State head man might be carrying a small container of Tums in sport jacket, as his Beavers have played nine of 15 games decided by eight or fewer points. Robinson, in his second year, is working on upgrading the talent in Corvallis, but until then has decided that playing defense is the best way for his team to have a chance to win. It’s nothing fancy for Orange and Black, focusing on playing positional defense, not getting beat off the bounce and helping out when necessary. Despite a 2-4 SU record as an underdog, Oregon State has hung tough, losing by just 1.2 points per game in that role and sporting a busy 6-0 ATS record. With the Pac-10 languishing this season, the Beavers catching points looks like an opportune wager.

Villanova (11-1, 11-4 ATS)

College basketball is a guard-oriented sport, since it is much easier to find players that can be dynamic at 6’3 or less than it is to find a 6’10 big man. Coach Jay Wright has always understood this and recruited accordingly. That doesn’t mean Wright wants a one-trick pony in backcourt, his players have to be versatile performers offensively and defensively and willing to track down rebounds. Villanova’s quick getaway has been fueled by persistent defensive pressure, keeping foes right around 40 percent shooting and Scottie Reynolds directs an offense NASCAR champion Jimmy Johnson would be proud, having many gears, including sticking it on the floor. Studying the patterns of the Wildcats against the spread the last several years, oddsmakers have had a real beat on Nova. They seldom cover by more than four or five points, which is coach Wright’s style of play. The Wildcats are 12-1 and 9-4 ATS as chalk and have been superb when playing with three or more days off with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS mark. Big East play tends to grind up most teams, keeping them around .500 against the number. For the short term, as long as Villanova continues to play great defense, they have to be considered a play on team as a favorite or dog.

Northern Iowa (14-1, 11-3 ATS)

Subtract the head-scratching loss to DePaul in the second game of the season; the Panthers are on track for a truly special campaign. Northern Iowa returned nine players that accounted for 91.7 percent of its scoring from team that tied for first in the Missouri Valley and won the conference tournament to earn NCAA berth. The Panthers aren’t going to mesmerize opponents with blazing speed; however they will carve them up a like turkey with the conference’s best inside duo, accurate outside shooters and a team that doesn’t make mistakes. 7’1, 290 pound Jordan Eglseder is turning into dominant beast, as he and Adam Koch control the paint. The perimeter players feature a cast of sharp shooters, with the Panthers hovering around 40 percent all season from three-point range. With all the veterans on this team, they are unaffected by outside surroundings and just goes about their business of winning basketball games. This team started the year with three goals, win the Valley regular reason and postseason tournament to earn higher seed and get to at least the Sweet 16. Would not recommend betting against them.

Super Saturday

After a slow start to the week, we’ve bounced back with 4-1 record and have four plays today. The first is a double play system that is 25-3, that’s right sports bettors. The Top Trend is near perfect and in the MWC. Marty is blistering the books and gives out his Top Play for Saturday. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

Free Betting Advise – As I mentioned earlier this week and several times previously, check for college totals that are on the move. Games that have changed three or more points are hitting over 65 percent in that direction.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who are average passing team (175-230 YPG), against an average passing defense (175-230 YPG), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. Since 2005, this system is 25-3 ATS, 89.3 percent (2-0 this year) and yields two plays. Georgia and Nebraska

Free Football Trend-2) Air Force is 15-1 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last three seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit 12 of last 13 CFB plays (had West Virginia last night) and his top play today is Kansas State.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed Pac-10 Game of the Year.

The Platinum Sheet has expert hitting 66 percent on Best Bets.

Three plays on a Tuesday coming your way

Our streak of good fortune was broken with 1-2 Monday, nonetheless, still 8-3 the last four days. We’ll try and release the evil demons and change things up a bit, with a college basketball system that focuses on the total in a televised tilt tonight in the SEC. Kendall will go after four in a row at 3Daily Winners with a Free Play and it's up now. Look towards the Big 12 for today’s Top Trend which is perfect. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) Play the UNDER when the total is between 150 and 159.5 points, and the road team, South Carolina in this instance, is off a close win by three points or less over a conference rival and has a winning percentage between 60-80 percent on the season. This Totals system is been quite effective the last five years at 25-5.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Kansas State Wildcats are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Kendall’s pick is BYU to cover on the road.

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