My Personal Title Game Play

The big moment has arrived and you have seen every conceivable angle about how the NCAA title game will play out. The Left Coast Connection members are 16 -9 on Butler with the points and the Under 10-3 from those that are betting it.

Personally I think the number is correct and this is one title game I don’t have definite feel for. What I’m about to tell is not super compelling, yet this is among the reasons I’m betting Duke at -7 at 1*. (I'm 15-5-1 ATS in the tournament)

When Butler shoots under 40 percent this season, they are pedestrian 4-3 ATS in next contest. When Duke shoots over 50 percent they are 4-1 ATS the following game, meaning at least to me they have a good carry over.

In common opponents this year, Butler is -4 in point differential, while the Blue Devils are +7.3.

Duke’s size is part of the difference they collar the Bulldogs and they drain free throws to win by 10 in the last few minutes.

For those that were not here a year ago, I finished No.1 at Free Sports Monitor and The Sports Eye in baseball last season with 178-124 record, good for +32.80 units.

Though I’m excited for MLB action, I take it slow the first couple of weeks, letting the season unfold, as there are lots of surprise teams and upsets early on. Everyone should play how they are most comfortable and this works for me. If you are not receiving my FREE plays, you are missing out, look to the right and sign up on email list.

As opposed to college hoops and NBA this past season, I’m ready with knowledge about baseball.

Enjoy the game tonight.

Blue Monday for Butler and Duke

It comes down to this. Yahoo Sports probably had it best with this headline –David vs. Duke. The lovable Butler Bulldogs have captured college basketball’s imagination with its improbable run to the national championship game with a coach and its best player looking younger than next year’s incoming recruiting class. Big bad Duke, sort of the New York Yankees of the hardwood, is loved by their fans hated by everyone else.

This is setting up as the sequel of “Hoosiers”, just in modern day. A band of talented young men led a by a coach who looks like an AAU coach just out of college goes to the sports title game in the school’s home city and nearby Hinkle Fieldhouse (the team’s real home) is replaced by Lucas Oil Stadium. This is so ridiculous a movie producer would can the screen play as a joke.

There is no joking about the talent of Gordon Hayward, who had 19 points and nine rebounds in the first Final Four contest and was the calmest player you will ever see when introduced for a big game. Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) has won 25 contents in a row and knocked off Syracuse, Kansas State and Michigan State, after many had believed they could have lost to UTEP or Murray State in their first two encounters of this tournament.

Even losing coach Tom Izzo was impressed.

“If I was not playing, I'd be a Butler fan," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "I like they way they play, I like their story. They play like a Big Ten team." The Bulldogs are now 26-14 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Duke’s return to prominence has some people feeling blue. The Blue Devils (34-5, 23-14-1 ATS) are back, playing with that confidence that comes from wearing a uniform that many consider a four-letter word. Coach Mike Krzyzewski had his team so well prepared it looked like a scrimmage against West Virginia at various points of the game.

Duke regularly solved the Mountaineers switching defense, getting a number of shot attempts within four feet of the rim. Once West Virginia players became overly conscious of Blue Devils players on the inside, it was target practice, as the Big 3 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer) shredded their defense on 12 for 23 shooting behind the three-point line.

The Blue Devils are 19-11 ATS after playing four consecutive games as favorite this season and know this isn’t about just three players shooting the ball well.

“We won this game as a team," Singler said. "It wasn't just put on my shoulders, or Jon's or Nolan's. We won this game from all sides contributing."

Part of the team is a man possessed, center Brian Zoubek who again pulled down 10 rebounds. His determination, which borders on serious anger, has him pulling down rebounds like mad man from a Rob Zombie movie. As Duke goes after its fourth national championship for Coach K, this is how Zoubek feels. “This is the culmination of four years for me. To have a shot at the championship my senior year, after everything we've been through, is a dream come true."

Duke was near perfect against West Virginia and they are 9-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers which plays a part why DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 7.5-point favorites, with total of 128.5. Coach Krzyzewski is making sure everyone knows that despite Butler not having the brand recognition of the team he coach’s, this opponent is no fairy tale.

“I think they're one of the best teams in the country," Krzyzewski said of Butler. "I think a Cinderella would be more if somebody had eight or nine losses and pulled some upsets." The Devils are 12-5 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points a game this season and are 8-1 UNDER after they’ve made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots the last three years.

Butler could start this game at a real disadvantage, considering Duke’s size and rebounding ability. Forward Matt Howard did not practice with his team Sunday and is a "game-time decision" according to his coach Brad Stevens. Howard is averaging 12.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and would be sorely missed. Butler guard Shelvin Mack said he suffered cramps and will be ready.

Butler’s help-defense has become the talk of the tournament, along with its incredible patience on offense, which is why they are 12-5 ATS after one or more Under’s this year. The Bulldogs are 11-2 OVER after scoring 60 points or less.

This matchup seems real simple, Butler cannot shoot 30.6 percent like they did against the Spartans and they cannot allow Duke to convert 52.7 percent as they did vs. West Virginia. If the Blue Devils are raining shots, Duke covers and wins convincingly. However, if the Bulldogs find three players to make shots consistently, box-out effectively to draw Duke fouls, where they can march to the charity stripe and convert 73.8 percent like they have all season, well, it is game on.

No matter what, one team will be blue and green with envy.

Can Baylor really make Final Four?

The NCAA Tournament has enjoyed a number storylines this March, with lower seeds pulling off unpredictable upsets and destroying brackets from coast to coast. One story that isn’t getting enough press, but will explode if they win in Houston is the Baylor Bears.

It was just seven years ago Baylor was rocked with a scandal in the death of basketball player Patrick Dennehy. His teammate Carlton Dotson pleaded guilty to the homicide and coach Dave Bliss was believed to be in a cover-up, which also happened to dig up recruiting violations by Bliss, forcing him to resign. The Baylor basketball program was dead.

Scott Drew was told by almost everyone that the Baylor basketball job was a suicide mission for someone young with upward mobility. Drew took the job anyway and what he has accomplished in this short period of time is as good or better than any Cinderella story in March.

Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) has as much physical ability as any team left in the tournament. LaceDarius Dunn is dominant scorer (witness the 23 points vs. St. Mary’s), Tweety Carter can scorch the nets and distribute dimes with regularity. Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers are big bodies around the rim, with Udoh a terrific specimen, just tapping into his potential. The Bears are versatile and have experience and are 12-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season. One more thing, until 10 days ago, the last time Baylor won a NCAA tournament game was 1950. Gulp.

Standing in their way is one of the dominant programs in recent college basketball history (10 Final Four’s under Coach K), the Duke Blue Devils (32-5, 21-14-1 ATS). In what has been an unusual basketball season, even the Duke-haters have been surprisingly quiet. It’s not like the Duke has snuck up on anyone this year, being co-champions of the ACC, winning the conference tournament and elected as a top seed, yet all this has happened with very little clamor.

Maybe it’s because of the Blue Devils failures in the previous couple of tournaments or lack of superstar talent on the roster. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are the three best perimeter players in the country on the balance of the season. None of them carries much of a “wow” factor, yet each is coldly efficient. Even oddsmakers haven’t been able to beat Duke, since they are regularly shaded with additional baggage and they are 10-1 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Where coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team has made the biggest strides is the frontline players add defense and rebounding, two qualities lacking of late. Opposing teams are scoring only 60.5 points per contest against Duke on 40 percent shooting. The combinations of Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers have stifled opposing offenses and the Blue Devils are 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last outing.

Duke is a five-point pick at DiamondSportsbook.com and will be in unfriendly environment, with Houston crowd pro-Baylor. The Dukies are 7-3 ATS as neutral site favorites and 16-6 UNDER after five or more consecutive victories. Baylor will be able to feed off the energy from the crowd and are 9-1 ATS after two games as chalk. Their mission in 2-3 zone is to keep what appears to be a tired Jon Scheyer in shooting slump and control the boards. The Bears are 10-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more this season.

The 1 vs. 3 Elite Eight conflicts show there is not much difference between the teams with 10-8 SU edge for the higher seed. Where separation occurs is when the top seed has won nine of 10 games before the tournament (Duke 12-1 SU), they are 7-2 SU and if the lower seed has inexperienced coach in the Big Dance, they are 2-7 SU.

Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 136.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

East has only formatted pairing

In what many are calling the greatest NCAA Tournament ever, at the very least to this point, the East Region has been a sea of tranquility, at least in part. Top seeds Kentucky and West Virginia are the only No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to make to the Elite Eight field from the same region and these two squads are combined 6-0 SU and ATS to this juncture. For those who would run over Cinderella’s glass slipper and discard her to the side of the road, this is the right matchup.

Kentucky (35-2, 20-15 ATS) became the best bet to win the NCAA Tournament after Kansas was derailed and they look the part, winning by 25.3 points per game in three tries. It’s amusing to read Kentucky detractors, this team is too young, they don’t shoot the ball well against zone defenses and Ashley Judd doesn’t look that hot in blue. While all or some of this conjecture might be true, coach John Calipari had arguably the most talented team coming into the tournament and as opposed to Kansas who could match them ability-wise, coach Cal’s players have an obvious desire to win and convincingly.

Kentucky has moved to 6-0 ATS in NCAA tourney clashes and their defense is unrelenting, with no team shooting over 36 percent in last three games and only Mississippi State converting over 40 percent among the previous six opponents.

West Virginia (30-6, 16-19 ATS) can also “D” it up with their physical nature. The Mountaineers have also not permitted a team to shoot over 40 percent in the tournament and six of last seven foes have not been able to make four of ten shot attempts. Coach Bob Huggins squad has won nine in a row (6-3 ATS) by locking down shooters and playing volleyball with their own missed shots.

Against Washington, they owned the glass with a 49-29 advantage and if they can convert over 76 percent from the charity stripe (13-17) against Kentucky, they could move to 22-4 ATS in all post-season tournament games since 1997.

Kentucky is a four-point pick at Bookmaker.com, with total of 133.5 and 13-6 ATS versus defensive teams holding opponents to 42 percent or less shooting and 7-1 ATS in previous eight Saturday assignments. The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER after three consecutive contests allowing 37 percent or less shooting. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS after a trio of teams have failed to score 60 or more points against them and 11-3 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season.

Watch for if Bob Huggins brings out their 1-3-1 zone sooner against Kentucky. Though West Virginia doesn’t use it a great deal in any given game, typically it has been at the end of a contest and it has worked like Mariano Rivera in closing out games. Because of Kentucky’s size, they might put John Wall and Patrick Patterson in the corners to get shots and set backside screens for lob attempts to either or both.

Maybe it just seems peculiar, but a 1 vs. 2 matchup only happens 35 percent of the time in the Elite Eight according to BracketScience.com since the field went to 64 teams. The higher seed is a mere 18-17 SU, with point differential of +1.4.

Will the Butler do it?

This or similar headlines will appear across the country for the West Regional final and what it lacks in originally, it makes up for in convenience. A season ago, NCAA administrators realized they could have a home court advantage on their hands and while they welcomed the extra revenue of having Michigan State make it to the championship game, they had to be pleased that talent won out and North Carolina won the title, thus avoiding criticism for a team having football sized crowd edge in the sports most important contest.

Here we are one year later and the very same thing could occur again if Butler (31-4, 15-20 ATS) wins yet again, this time taking down the No. 2 seed out West in Kansas State (29-7, 21-9-1 ATS). Either way, the Bulldogs are heading back to Indianapolis after this Elite Eight encounter, but they might be doing so as the unofficial host of the Final Four with the triumph.

Butler was the aggressor all night against top-seeded Syracuse and out-worked the Orangemen over large expanses of the contest. The Bulldogs put Syracuse on the defensive from the start in building 10-point halftime lead. Butler’s greatness and toughness came to light after Syracuse had stormed back to take 54-50. Butler showed bulldog determination, scoring the next 11 points and the Orangemen’s tank went to empty. No wonder these Bulldogs are 22-7 ATS as underdogs.

Kansas State overcame more disappointments than a Cubs fan Thursday night in finally getting Xavier to succumb 101-96 in double overtime, with backers earning surprising Push. The Musketeers were like a cat, with Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway draining big shot after big shot to keep Xavier coming back time after time.

The Wildcats had guards that could also perform in the clutch as Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente totaled 53 points (compared to Xavier duo that had 58). When the K-State got to the century mark in points, Xavier’s nine lives had expired and the Wildcats are 12-1 ATS after one or more Over’s this season.

Bookmaker.com has Kansas State as four-point favorites to advance to Final Four for the first time since 1964. The Wildcats are 18-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season, but will have less 40 hours to rest and recover from a taxing contest with so much at stake. With the total at 134.5, K-State is 16-6 OVER away from Manhattan having won four of their last five games.
Butler would prefer to change the pace of this matchup, since they are 5-12 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5.The Bulldogs are 15-6 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or less in two straight contests, winning by 8.1 points a game.

This West finale starts just after 4:30 Eastern and in the last 21 years, only twice has a 5-seed faced a 2-seed in this round and each time the lower seed pulled the outright upset. (In 2005 and 1996)

Big Men to play big roles in South Region

This time of year the mantra of winning college basketball is having great guard play. Every team reportedly needs a player that can control the tempo, knockdown shots and defend the perimeter. But what about a big fella in the middle? One who can score in the paint area and draw fouls to help his team get in the bonus shooting free throws sooner, resulting in fewer empty trips. Another example would crashing the offensive boards on errant shots for demoralizing baskets and what about having an intimidating defensive presence that makes shooters wary when they are within several feet of the rim! All four teams have individual or collective players that could be the reason they move on to Sunday’s Elite Eight.

Omar Samhan vs. the Waco Gang

Tenth-seeded St. Mary’s has much the same feel as the conference partner Gonzaga had back in 1999. That Gonzaga team went to the Elite 8, with three consecutive upsets, led by guards Matt Santangelo and Richie Frahm. Watching that team play, you were struck by the fact they looked like a collection of guys that would be playing at the health club in the not too distant future, not being Mickey D’s All-Americans with a professional career in their future.

Taking a gander at St. Mary’s (28-5, 22-9 ATS), their team has many of those same qualities except for one person, Omar Samhan. The Gaels big man is one of the finest centers in the country and a terrific example of someone who benefitted from four years of collegiate ball. He has an assortment of moves around the basket and always works to make himself available for passes to the post, which is how he’s scored 61 points in two games. Samhan this season has become a more skilled passer, able to find open shooters on the weak side as double-teams are about to arrive. He’s a very big reason why St. Mary’s is 16-6 ATS facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game this season.

He and 6’11 Ben Allen will be dueling with Baylor’s big men.

The Bears (27-7, 17-10 ATS) have the size and quickness edge in the paint with 7’0 Josh Lomers and 6’10 Ekpe Udoh. It appears Udoh will probably draw Samhan on defense and he has the quickness and arm length to play denial defense and shot-blocking skill to make him hesitant. Lomers also will undoubtedly take a few turns and he has the bulk to match strength with St. Mary’s big men.

Udoh is also a rim-runner, able to play at accelerated pace, which makes him devastating dunker and exceptional offensive rebounder. Baylor’s length at several positions on the floor allows them to be 7-0 ATS vs. excellent three point shooting teams converting 41 or better of their attempts.

Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite, with total having dipped to 142 at DiamondSportsbook.com. Though Waco is a long way from Houston (where this game is being played), Texans tend to stick together and the Bears will have partisan fan-base. The Bears are 11-2 ATS having won four of their last five games and are 14-3 OVER after playing a game as favorite this season. Don’t expect St. Mary’s to be intimidated, with the gregarious Samhan always having something to say.

The Gaels are 8-1 ATS in any tournament game this year and 10-seeds are 4-7 SU against three seeds in this round. One bad note for St. Mary’s, if this 10-seed didn’t make the tournament last year (which the Gaels did not), they are 0-7 SU.

JaJuan Johnson takes on Duke brigade

Purdue (29-5, 15-18-1 ATS) lacked size before Robbie Hummel went down, now they have to find other ways to win. Coach Matt Painter has dug into the old Southern Illinois playbook (his last stop), where he made size not matter. To upset Duke as 8.5-point underdogs, the Boilermakers are going to have to win the battle on the perimeter and have Johnson create a stalemate inside.

Johnson has good moves around the basket, however, as he exhibited against the stronger Texas A&M big men, he can go outside and bank 15-footers and comfortably make 18-footers, which opens the middle for cutters. Much like the win over the Aggies, Purdue has to manufacture points and have a high number of points per possession. The Boilers have cashed eight of previous 11 tickets as neutral site pooches.

Duke (31-5, 20-14-1 ATS) can bring tall, strong players in waves. Center Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas start things off with solid defense and score enough to have to be guarded by opponent. Next comes the Plumlee brothers, both are aggressive rebounders on each of the floor and what they lack in quicks, they make-up for by using bodies to stay fundamentally sound. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils permit 61 points per game and their opponents only convert 40.1 percent of the time. With Duke’s defense, they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this year.

The oddsmakers believe Purdue will control the tempo, with 126.5 listed total. The Boilermakers can’t allow many short Duke runs of 6-0 or 8-2, since they lack the firepower to run with the Blue Devils and are 6-13-1 ATS after a cover dating back to last season. Jon Scheyer and teammates only committed five turnovers against California last Sunday and are 8-1 ATS after a game committing eight or less miscues.

This was the only region to have expected 1 vs 4 matchup. The top seeds are 26-10 SU, winning by 8.6 points per game. A key number for the lower seed is score differential to pull the upset. Four seeds that win by 10 or more points are 7-6 when these seeds collide; all others are 3-18 SU. (Purdue is +9.9)

Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional

Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are manageable distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, OH. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two.

Unusual Pairing

To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.

Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.

Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.

Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.

The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122 at DiamondSportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.

Buckeyes look to avoid being Orange Crush

Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16-2 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17-1 ATS).

The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.

Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.

Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.

Thursday's Top Action

On the day, we were officially 1-0 with my Free Play an easy winner with Utah and I’m having a very good NCAA Tournament and hope to keep it up, giving out my top play in that area. The Top Trend is flat out perfect, but not a NCAA contest. We move to the NHL for system that is very good, just not quite good enough at 78.7 percent. Good Luck

What I noticed yesterday- All four NIT underdogs covered the spread in the quarterfinals and three of them won outright on the road.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play Against road underdogs against the money line like Phoenix, having won four of their last five games and won 60 to 70 percent on the year, playing a marginal team (51% to 60%) in the second half of the season. This NHL system is 48-13, 78.7 percent with 2-0 this season.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Appalachian State is 9-0 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game past the mid-point of the season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I’m 11-3-1 in the NCAA Tournament and have the least appreciated underdog today, Washington to cover.

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Top seeds picked to previal out West

The chalk followed suit in the West Regional with top seeds Syracuse and Kansas State both victorious. Each are a solid betting choice to meet in an Elite 8 matchup on Saturday, yet both will encounter clubs that are NCAA tournament tested and carrying a strong belief this is their chance to shine in what has been unpredictable tournament in 2010.

Syracuse vs Butler

The status of Arinze Onuaku is presently listed as doubtful, which doesn’t help the Orangemen (30-4, 21-9 ATS) as they look to move on in the tournament. Onuaku is a contributing scorer near the basket and though a mediocre free throw shooter, he still draws fouls against the opposing team and is exceptional rebounder in their 2-3 zone. His ability to control the glass has set up Syracuse to push the ball offensively, often finding the right player in motion towards the basket with a sharp, on-target pass they led to easier baskets for Orange shooters. Syracuse is 13-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

That leaves more of the burden to fall on Wesley Johnson and Rick Jackson specifically. Johnson has to rebound a little more and can’t cheat out quite as much on misfires from the opposition. Jackson in turn has to be the Windex-man (long-time Dick Vitale favorite saying) and has to work a little harder on the offensive glass for put-backs. Off their high-octane effort against Gonzaga (87-65), Syracuse is 8-1 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more.

Butler (30-4, 12-20 ATS) is a six-point underdog, with total of 138.5 at Bookmaker.com. The Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger; a 22-game win streak will do that for team. In spite of their phenomenal success, Butler was often mentioned as a play against team in both the first two games in the tournament and they played unafraid even the face of real adversity. F-C Matt Howard sat a good portion of the second half with four fouls against Murray State, yet the Bulldogs actually built a lead during that time, spreading the floor offensively and getting points from a variety of scorers including versatile Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

Butler is ordinary three-point team (34.1 percent), nonetheless has players capable of tickling the twine and is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.

Xavier vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats from Manhattan are looking better all the time. Kansas State (28-7, 21-9 ATS) was considered a darkhorse for a top seed until losing twice in final week of the regular season. However, obstacles might be falling to the wayside for the Wildcats to be considered a real championship club. Their nemesis Kansas is flushed; Syracuse and West Virginia have either ailing starters or have lost them all together. The Cinderella’s are presumed to strike midnight before long, leaving only a few worthy contenders.

Stellar guard play is a must to survive and advance in March and coach Frank Martin just might have the most dynamic duo since Batman and Robin. Jacob Pullen or Denis Clemente are both capable of boiling over and scoring points at per minute clip. In the painted area, Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels can both produce big nights, particularly if they're converting offensive rebounds into stick-backs. K-State is a 4.5-point favorite and is 18-6 ATS this season when bestowed with the honor.

Xavier’s is nobody’s fool, being only just one of two teams to make it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last three seasons along with Michigan State. Forget the talk of the Musketeers not being elite program. "I don't feel like we're a mid-major at all," said senior Jason Love, having been a part of this ride. "You look at our schedule and we play some of the best teams in the country."

Xavier (26-8, 22-11 ATS) is 8-1 ATS in a NCAA tournament games over the last three seasons and holds opposing teams to 40.7 percent shooting, yet are explosive enough to average almost 80 (79.3) points a contest. Sophomore guard Jordan Crawford led the A-10 in scoring with 19.6 points a game and has a complete package, being able find open teammates, defend effectively, and deliver big baskets when his team needs them throughout a game. Xavier is 14-3 ATS having won two of their last three games this campaign.

Two seeds are 18-5 SU taking on six seeds, with average winning margin 5.6 PPG.

Are Washington and Cornell desirable dogs?

The East Regional is a marriage of four unlikely teams. Here we find something new (Cornell), something old (Bob Huggins having team in the tournament), something borrowed (Washington playing like they are a top Sweet 16 program or better after underachieving a good portion of the season) and something blue (lots of Kentucky blue). These four converge in upstate New York not willing to be a bridesmaid and the underdogs earning a lot of love.

These Huskies are no dogs

For Washington (26-9, 16-18 ATS) fans, their lost weekend in Los Angeles (losing to both UCLA and USC) is a distant memory. Those Jan. 21 and 23 contests were the last time the Huskies played bad basketball. Whatever happened to this team after losing to the Trojans by 26 points, it has worked. Washington has won 14 of 16, including nine in a row and is 11-4 ATS. Maybe it was coach Lorenzo Romar steady influence, sending the same message and getting his players to believe.

One player that never lost faith was senior Quincy Pondexter. “When I kept saying in January, 'Don't panic,' it was for a reason," Pondexter said. "We still had a lot of time to come together and make a push like we are now."

Washington is now 6-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament appearances and believes they can achieve greatness. "If we do what we're supposed to do, we got a chance to do something even more special," coach Romar said. "You never want to look too far ahead, and we don't…….I don't think anyone is satisfied yet. They like playing basketball, and they want to keep playing."

The Huskies ability to control the pace has been the key with their athletes. Strip away the slowdown tactics of Oregon State and Washington has average 81.3 points per game in the last six other contests. Bookmaker.com has them as four-point underdog with total of 140.5.

West Virginia (29-6, 15-19 ATS) received some sobering news, losing point guard Truck Bryant to broken foot. This was already the Mountaineers weakest position on the floor, which leaves Joe Mazzulla to soldier the load independently. Mazzulla was already playing more minutes than Bryant in recent weeks, however now he has no credible backup to support him. It will be imperative Mazzulla plays well as facilitator to Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks and stays under control defensively, as Washington will try to force West Virginia into track meet. The ‘Teers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA games.

It would seem picking the total has a direct correlation to spread outcome. Washington is 12-3 OVER having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, winning by 6.4 points per game. West Virginia is 12-4 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons, being victorious by 7.8 PPG. No.2 seeds are 7-1 SU against 11’s, winning by 6.4 points a contest.

Big Red vs. Big Blue

Kentucky (34-2, 19-15 ATS) is now the odds on favorite to win the whole shebang and is an 8.5-point favorite over Cornell (29-4, 18-10). The Big Red cannot be underestimated, at least to cover the spread. Cornell’s strength is in their ability to play their game. In two tournament trips, they have shot 43.6 percent from three-point land, which is right on target with season average and NCAA best figure of 43.9.

Kentucky is powerful in the paint and will likely be able to slowdown Cornell’s 7’0 center Jeff Foote. Nonetheless, the team most similar to Cornell, at least in terms of style is Mississippi State and the Wildcats needed overtime and fair amount of luck to down the Bulldogs twice.
Ryan Wittman, Louis Dale and Jon Jaque all can drain the long ball and their team is 8-2 ATS away from home after three or more consecutive wins this season.

Kentucky is going to have to make three-point shots, as Cornell will stay in their zone defense. The Wildcats do have definite edge is size and quickness and when pushed on the road, they have held opposing teams to 27.9 percent behind the arc. Expect coach John Calipari to use his big guys to get Foote into foul trouble, making it easier to focus on guarding the perimeter. Kentucky has covered their last five tournament appearances and No.1 seeds vs. 12’s are perfect 16-0 SU, winning by 14.6 PPG.

The question remains will this youthful ‘Cats team stay focused taking on an Ivy League squad, despite their ability? Over the years, Kentucky is 2-17 ATS after consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Higher seeds intent on moving to Sweet 16

The final three contests of Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament have variety. A top seed takes on a hot team from a poor-mouthed conference, a three-seed is expected to be tested by a squad with ample tourney experience and fourth seed is listed underdog, not playing with all its weaponry. This trio of wagering options will fill the Sweet 16 dance card.

ACC power on parade

Duke tied for the ACC regular season title and walked away with conference tournament and faces California of the much maligned Pac-10. Funny thing about the left-coasters, both teams that made it to the NCAA’s moved on to second round, proving at least at the top, this league was not too bad. The Blue Devils cover the six-point spread at DiamondSportsbook.com if they establish inside presence against the Bears with Kyle Singler, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas doing the dirty work, freeing up the perimeter shooters to score. Expect the Blue Devils to work inside out and they are 6-0 ATS after two straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent.

California’s best shot to pull the upset is staying glued to outside shooters from Duke and beat them down the floor in transition. If Jerome Randle can keep the Bears at high octane level to wear down the bigger Duke players, they’ll be able to take best shot since they are 10-2 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. (Posted total is 143.5)

Pittsburgh against the X-Men

The Panthers and Xavier matchup opened with the Musketeers as a one-point favorite, moved to a Pick and now is a single digit underdog. Pittsburgh moves Salt Lake City if they can remain consistent. All season the Panthers have had players running hot and cold. That means Ashton Gibbs, Gilbert Brown, Gary McGhee, Travon Woodall and Dante Taylor all have to play within themselves and not try and be heroes. Pitt is 10-3 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points game this season.

The oddsmakers are telling us Xavier is very close to playing the way they want with total of 135.5. The Musketeers are 22-3 and 18-6 ATS, when they score 70 or more points and are very potent offensively averaging 79.6 points per contest.

Xavier will have to shoot better than 34.3 percent from the field like they did against Minnesota or they will be in real trouble, as three seeds are 8-1 SU against six seeds in this round.

Purdue could be predicament

The Boilermakers clearly haven't been the same without Robbie Hummel and will have to depend on defense to hold off Texas A&M. The Boilermakers will have to play sensational defense like they did against Siena (32.9 percent) and try and avoid long periods of not scoring. Junior guard E'Twaun Moore and center JaJuan Johnson will probably have to total 40 or more points and have at least two others score around 10 points each. Purdue is 15-26 ATS after playing three straight games as favorite over the last two seasons.

Texas A&M can defend as they proved against Utah State, holding the Aggies to 53 points, compared to average of 73 PPG. Donald Sloan is the inspirational leader and facilitator of the offense and center Bryan Davis is a rugged inside player. Coach Mark Turgeon has done a masterful job in blending the veterans with his youngsters, especially with the loss of Derrick Roland back in December to compound fracture. The Aggies are two-point favorites and 14-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Start your Sunday with these five matchups

By now your sleep pattern showed be seriously disrupted, waking yourself up screaming, “onions” from a Bill Raftery call or the occasional Dick Enberg “oh my” as the brain can’t properly rest with the constant rhythm of a basketball pounding the hardwood for hours on end. Additionally, in the other regions of the brain, you are going over why you bet a certain team or why you didn’t have the “onions” to take one you know you should have. Don’t despair, roughly one more eight hour segment to go before you can rest up, with five games coming in the early afternoon or late morning depending on your proximity.

Gonzaga vs. Syracuse 12:10E

The Orangemen answered one question; can they play without injured center Arinze Onuaku? The answer was yes, but Vermont doesn’t have anywhere near the talent level Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) has. Even if Onuaku could go, he’ll have limitations as to what he can do, which means Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins will have to carry the scoring load, with others like Scoop Jackson and Rick Jackson chipping in. Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS) is a 6.5-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is a 9-2 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.

The Bulldogs ended up drawing two phenomenal defensive teams in the early rounds of the West regional, but at least the ‘Cuse likes to get out and run, more to Gonzaga’s liking. The Zags were exquisite in the first half against Florida State, building a 16-point lead, however fell into the Seminoles trap of slow down and needed always reliable Matt Bouldin to bail them out. With the total listed at 150, Gonzaga can play their more free-flowing style, but to win have to solve Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone. Gonzaga is 26-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

1 vs. 8 seeds are 37-9 SU, winning by 9.3 points per game the last 25 years.

Georgia Tech vs. Ohio State 2:20E

As was documented yesterday, 10-seeds oft times present problems for No. 2 seeds, winning outright about 40 percent of the time. Georgia Tech (23-12, 16-12-1 ATS) was the sixth ACC team seeded 10th or worse since 1994 (out of seven), to pull off the upset in the first round. The Yellow Jackets have the athletes and inside power to make them a factor in any contest, however they must play at their own pace since they are 16-6 ATS when they attempt 54 to 62 shots. That means a large number of touches for Gani Lawal and freshman Derrick Favors.

Ohio State (28-7, 17-16-2 ATS) is more diverse offensively than Warren Buffet’s portfolio, making them a headache to defend. Everyone knows what Evan Turner can do, but when Jon Diebler hits seven of the purest three-pointers you have ever seen and defenses start leaning his way, that opens up William Buford and David Lighty to expand their games. The Buckeyes are a 6.5-point pick with total of 133.5 and they are 8-2 ATS playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.

The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 UNDER on a neutral court when the total is 130 to 139.5.

Michigan State vs. Maryland 2:30E

Round Two on Sunday resembles a Big Ten meet with four teams in action. The conference was believed to be improved this year and this is a swing game that will help determine if that belief was actually true. Michigan State (25-8, 12-20 ATS) got off a good start against New Mexico State, building a 13-point lead before seeing it all disappear to the more aggressive Aggies in the second half. The Spartans were overwhelmed by New Mexico State’s faster tempo and would have lost except for the Aggies impatience in late game shot selection and 13-22 mark from the free throw line. Coach Gary Williams more experienced team is unlikely to waste that opportunity if they reach that point and Michigan State is 5-15 ATS facing a club with a winning record this season.

Maryland’s (24-8, 17-10 ATS) win over Houston was workman-like, taking the Cougars best shots, while maintaining control. There's no question the Terrapins' success revolves around senior guard Greivis Vasquez, whose game has matured to the level of doing what it takes to win, instead of making sure his numbers are in order. Maryland will undoubtedly use full court or three quarter pressure on the Spartans earlier in the game to determine who they react. The Terps are 8-1 ATS in road conditions after playing consecutive games as a favorite and is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS in last dozen outings.

Maryland is a one-point favorite; however four seeds are 11-23 ATS since 1998.

Missouri vs. West Virginia 2:40E

Can Missouri (23-10, 15-12 ATS) ring the bell as an upset winner? If they bring the same intensity they played with Friday in beating Clemson they just might. The Tigers 75-60 loss to Nebraska in first Big 12 tourney contest had coach Mike Anderson thinking October, not March. The very next practice was a return to basics, including all the conditioning drills the players hate, but they got the message. Against Clemson they had 15 steals and 20 forced turnovers, which led directly to 20 points in 86-78 triumph. “Our teams typically start playing some of their better basketball right around late February, March,’’ said coach Anderson. “I guess we really turned up the intensity…” The Tigers are 15-4 ATS versus ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers a contest.

West Virginia (28-6, 14-19 ATS) hit the snooze button to start against Morgan State down 10-0, but were alarmed into reality by the soothing tones of coach Bob Huggins and buried the Bears the rest of the first half 38-17 on the way to 27-point win. The Mountaineers will have to show patience on offense in attacking Missouri and take advantage of opportunities once they break the press. West Virginia can’t become flustered either when Mizzou goes on 6-0 or 8-2 runs, that just their style. The ‘Teers are six-point favorites and are 13-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Cornell vs. Wisconsin 2:50E

The Big Red of Cornell (28-4, 17-10 ATS) ended the Ivy’s league’s 12-year drought of empty NCAA trips with a resounding performance against A-10 champion Temple. "Everyone was saying we were Cinderella or it's an upset. Not us," sophomore Chris Wroblewski said Friday after his toppled Temple 78-65 as three-point underdogs. Cornell spent the first half pushing the ball inside and once the Owls were forced to sag lower, the nation’s top three point shooting team unleashed the hounds and total nine 3-pointers. The team from Ithaca, NY is 10-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog.

Wisconsin (24-8, 17-13 ATS) played average at best in holding off Wofford 53-49, nevertheless the Badgers showed their most important trait when it mattered most, poise. Wisconsin lost every bit of their early 10-point second half lead, but played solid defense in the closing minutes and made big shots to emerge victorious. The Badgers are reliable three-point defensive team and they will need to deliver. Wisky is a 4.5-point favorite and 8-1 ATS if opposing squad has win percentage of 80 percent or better.

The tournament has shown that 4-seeds taking on 12-seeds in this round win by four points a game, about the same as oddsmakers number.

Saturday night is about Wildcats

High seeds Kentucky and Kansas State will complete a full day of Round 2 action after dark in locations east of the Mississippi River. Each of these Wildcat squads are favored, but not by large amounts as they seek to avoid the upset and move on to Sweet 16.

Wake Forest will have to play big

Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) played their most complete game in a month in taking down Texas 81-80 in OT as five-point underdogs. Guard Ishmael Smith’s last shot was a swish, which helped him finish with 19 points, 12 boards and a victory. The next task will be far more daunting and you can forgive coach Dino Gaudio for inquiring about what eligibility the Ivan Brothers have left after watching tape on Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS).

The Wildcats are the biggest team in college basketball, having NBA-size in the frontcourt and they looked similarly imposing in handing East Tennessee State its exit papers 100-71 as 18.5-point favorites. Though Wake Forest’s strength is its baseline players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Kentucky is 6-0 ATS on the road versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds a game on the season. The Demon Deacons are nine-point underdogs, but that might work for them since Wake is 12-4 ATS catching points the last two seasons, losing by one point a game in that situation.

K-State out to tames Cougars offense

The other Wildcats had a similarly easy time with first round foe North Texas, as Kansas State (27-7, 20-9 ATS) turned the Mean Green into Gumby with 20-point thumping. The Wildcats guard tandem of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen will have to not only score, but play defense against BYU (30-5, 19-13 ATS) who can match points with any team in the country.

The Cougars need two overtimes to finally frustrate Florida 99-92 and grab a fairly remarkable cover. Remarkable only begins to tell the story of Jimmer Fredette, who finished with 37 points. Fredette is the heart and soul of BYU and his point total matched Danny Ainge from 29 years ago, for tournament school record. The junior guard was clutch, with 29 of his points scored after halftime. The Kansas State guards are not dutiful defenders and the Wildcats are only 5-14 ATS when out of Manhattan versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game.

K-State is 4.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 155 and they are exquisite 7-1 ATS facing teams who make eight or more three bombs a game on the year. The Cougars will try and force the pace of the game even higher, as they are 6-0 ATS in road games when they score 81 to 86 points.

Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

Nova on the ropes?

You would have to believe so by the way they are playing and evidently other actions off the court. Villanova (25-7, 18-13 ATS) has won three of their previous eight games, covering the spread twice (one was by a single point). The big question about the Wildcats seems to be commitment.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher were the latest players late in the season to be a part of coach Jay Wright’s “teaching points”, starting the a NCAA game on the bench. Does this appear to be a team hungry to return to the Final Four?

Villanova was a 17-point favorite over No. 15 Robert Morris and needed five extra minutes to put away the Colonials 73-70. Nova’s biggest lead of the game was six points as they shot 35.3 percent as a team and were 6-22 from behind the arc and at the end of the contest, one team got a standing ovation and it wasn’t Villanova. The Wildcats will have to work hard to keep 8-1 ATS record in road games playing their second game in three days over the last two seasons.

St. Mary’s (27-5, 21-9-1 ATS) is the opponent out of the 10th seed slot and they are very capable at 13-3 and 12-4 ATS on the road. After losing consecutive road games at Gonzaga and Portland in the middle of February and allowing 80 points in each, coach Randy Bennett made it point to reconstruct St. Mary’s practices, starting each one with defensive focus. This new strategy has work emphatically, as the Gaels have rattled off six straight wins and five covers.

Another big factor in St. Mary’s success and it big, literally, is the domination of 6’11 center Omar Samhan. He tore up the Richmond defense with his 29 points and 12 rebounds, leading the way in comfortable 80-71 upset of the Spiders. Samhan has enjoyed more freedom in the low blocks as point guard Mickey McConnell and freshman guard Matthew Dellavedova have shot the rock with greater effectiveness deep. St. Mary’s is 10-3 ATS away from home after two or more wins this season.

Villanova is five-point favorite with total of 153.5 at Bookmaker.com, which should mean a high scoring affair. The Wildcats may be 15-6 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game, but 10-seeds have won outright 40 percent of the time against No. 2’s if they average better than 72 points a game and if they outscore opponents by at least five points per contest (St. Mary’s at 13.5). The Gaels are 12-3 ATS on the road after scoring 80 or more points.

This is the opening game on Saturday slated for 1:05 Eastern and Villanova is 17-4 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

Are the high seeds a good or bad wager Friday evening?

In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?

(1)Duke vs (16)Arkansas Pine Bluff

The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as championship game participant. That is not exactly man bites dog material given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest from public perception No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point at DiamondSportsbook.com.

Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.

By now, most are familiar with the fact Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.

(1)Syracuse vs (16)Vermont

The Orangemen are 16-point choice and they need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.

Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.

(2)Ohio State vs (15)UC-Santa Barbara

Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17-point favorite with total of 132, suggests a 75-57 final score.

UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.

(4)Maryland vs. (13)Houston

The Terps will have ginourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.

Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, which was the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.

Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offensives, holding teams to 38.8 percent and are 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15 or more games this season.

(5)Michigan State vs. (12)New Mexico State

The Spartans are favored by 13-points over New Mexico State and cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.

If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), they could have a game on their hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s and the Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.

Michigan State does the job by keeping N.M. State out of the lane area and allowing them to fall in love with three point heaves, which they are prone to do. If the Aggies are not dropping long shots and can’t earn what they need within 15-feet of the basket, the total of 148 fits the Spartans when the numbers fall between 140 to 149.5, showcasing 14-5 ATS mark.

Reviewing the Friday Early Line Moves

The wagering public has had more time to dissect the Friday numbers and they have come up with interesting choices on the Friday afternoon or morning matchups depending on one’s time zone. What did these people see that maybe you didn’t or what do you know something they don’t?

The one contest the public felt the strongest about is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. At DonBest.com, they show this game opening at 129.5 and have seen it be in free fall down to 125. The reasoning for is not readily apparent, at least by how each team plays. Texas A&M averages just over 133 total points per game and 129.6 points away from College Station. Utah State is over 136 total points in all games they have played and even higher on the road at 139 exactly.

The general tendency would be to believe the pace will be slowed down for a tournament tilt and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive losses. Both are good defensive squads, thus it will be curious to see what occurs.

The Purdue and Siena contest, which will be the first game in Spokane, figured to have movement at least in one direction. All week people have been talking about the Boilermakers lopsided loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney and they will face a veteran Siena team that knocked off higher-seeded teams in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Purdue opened as five-point favorites and have fallen to four at Sportsbook.com and most other wagering outlets.
Even before Robbie Hummel’s season ending injury, Purdue was not a good wager and is 2-11 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena figures to be more focused than they were in MAAC champion game where they had to overcome huge deficit to win over Fairfield 72-65 to survive as nine-point favorites. On the years, the Saints are holier than thou 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

The total on this 4 vs. 13 encounter has fallen 1.5-points to 130 and this seems a little less certain. If Siena is really ready to pull the upset, the number coming down is justified, as the Saints are 11-4 UNDER having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. However, the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER in road games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.

Many have no idea who Oakland U. is (Summit League champions) and even fewer would know where they are from (Rochester, MI). The Golden Grizzlies are veteran bunch, with two seniors and three juniors in the starting lineup, making their second NCAA appearance in three years. Oakland U. averages 76.8 points per game and the contests they have played that had oddsmakers numbers, they are 10-4 OVER. Why than is the total headed downward against third-seeded Pittsburgh?

Three factors are in play. The Golden Grizzlies played four teams in this tournament, averaging just 54.5 points a contest. The Panthers of Pitt hold opposing teams to 40 percent shooting and neutral court teams off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog like Oakland, in a game involving two teams with win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.

The Cornell story is ideal for the Cinderella in March, their misfortune, at least on the surface is drawing one of the hottest teams in the tournament in Temple. The Owls have flown to 10 consecutive wins (8-2 ATS) in being the A-10 champions for the third year in a row. This doesn’t stop the Big Red from having a chance to pull the upset and lines are trending towards university from Ithaca, NY. No one is going to confuse the Ivy League with the Atlantic 10, especially this season. Yet this isn’t your grandpa’s Cornell club. The Big Red shoot the ball expertly (48.1 percent) and drain the three-ball at 43.4 percent rate. They also have a rarity, a 7’0 center in Jeff Foote, who’s a solid player.

No question Temple deserves all the accolades coming their way, however one aspect deserves a further look. In common opponents this season, Cornell is 5-3 SU & ATS, with +2.9 scoring margin. The Owls against these same opponents are 7-2, with 4-5 ATS record and score differential of +5.9. The public might be on to something.

Missouri and Clemson are essentially mere images of one another, pressing teams that love to force turnovers and disrupt opponents into numerous miscues. Mizzou has veterans from last year’s Elite 8 club and they force 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per contest, leading the nation in both categories. The Tigers of Clemson are ninth in the country in steals at 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri also is not afraid to launch the three ball either, making eight of their own an outing.

The total opened at 138 and is up 2.5-points. With both teams ability to force turnovers, that usually leads to points. Each has faced a pressing defense in practice all season and should know how to attack once they break the press, taking the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in last 11 NCAA battles and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.

NCAA Tournament Preview