MLB division leaders a safe second half bet

A quick glance at the standings today has New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Texas in first place in the American League, with Tampa Bay as wild card team, using the dreaded term “if the season ended today”.

In the National League, it is Atlanta, Cincinnati and San Diego, with Colorado and the Los Angeles Dodgers tied for the final playoff spot.

Without too much thought, the White Sox, Reds and Padres appear to be the most vulnerable of giving up their division leads by October 3 (the last day of the regular season), as the Pale Hose have to uncover another starting pitcher to replace Jake Peavy, who was coming on and the two clubs from the senior circuit have a “pretender” feel about them. However, based on recent history, all six division leaders could be relatively good “play on” teams the rest of the year.

Don’t misunderstand, I’m not suggesting to play these teams every day, in fact in some cases you might not want to play them at all for week given a slump or rugged road trip. Let’s face it; can you really expect San Diego to improve on baseball best +17.2 units with their 51-37 first half record? Not by much if at all really. Nonetheless, as a sage bettor told me more than once, “A fool and his money are soon to part without a look in the rearview mirror.”

The last two years, nine of the 12 All-Star break leaders went on to capture their respective division crowns and 10 of 12 made their way into the postseason. That’s 83.3 percent, a rather healthy figure and look around at any website that has full season baseball units won/lost records, will mostly show these clubs in black numbers and in the Top 10 in baseball for that particular year.

2009 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Boston - 1st – Wild card
Detroit – 1st – Minnesota wins division in playoff
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st -1st
St. Louis – 1st – 1st
L.A. Dodgers 1st – 1st

2008 (All-Star break position – final standings position)
Tampa Bay – 1st – 1st
Chic. White Sox – 1st -1st
L.A. Angels – 1st – 1st
Philadelphia – 1st – 1st
Chic. Cubs – 1st – 1st
Arizona – 1st – L.A. Dodgers win division

Since 2002, 30 of the 48 All-Star break leaders have gone on to be division champions and five more were playing postseason baseball.

With rare exception do these teams completely fold, unless ravaged by injury. That’s not to say any squad is above a costly September swoon, like the New York Mets in 2007 (5-12 record - Sept. 14 until season end) and 2008 (6-10 close) or the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox (Sept. 8-27, 7-12).

While crazy things do happen for those betting sports, a good team is still a good team and often playoff contender’s feast on other clubs whose season has long since been over except for completing the schedule. (Insert Pittsburgh here, since they have endured the curse of Barry Bonds, without a winning season since he left after 1992 campaign)

Taking on sports betting lines from oddsmakers is a different proposition in the second half of the schedule, as they start to add volume to first place favorites, taking the stance if you want bet the chalk, you need the intestinal fortitude to back it up with cash. However, it is not uncommon for these types of teams to win five or more in a row and if you started the winning streak with them, much like betting additional numbers on a craps table with hot shooter, the winnings more than offset one loss or bad roll.

As always, be selective, pick your spots and don’t be anxious or greedy, two absolute sins of gambling.

One final point, understand the workings of the wild card. In the past eight years, the AL team the ultimately earned the wild card slot was already in this position at the break or in first place. That is good news for Tampa Bay.

Conversely in the NL, only the 2006 Dodgers, who were tied for first place with San Diego, have made the postseason as the fourth team supposedly poised to be playing in October. This is not good news for Rockies or Dodgers backers at present.

Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.

NBA boss rethinking sports betting stance

David Stern is the boss of the NBA and like many sports czars, has taken a hard line on sporting wagering on team sports. He was particularly affronted by former referee Tim Donaghy revelations of betting on games he worked, which was in strict violation of the rules of conduct in the league.

At that point, print and television commentators coast to coast suggested the NBA was about to go the way of the Arena Football League, because its public trust had been comprised. And while many wondered what would happen to the NBA, something unexpected occurred that Stern’s minions and most other supposed “know it all’s” didn’t see coming, nothing.

All the presumed outrage, people thinking the NBA was going to become the WWE with predetermined winners (enough people believed that already), however once they started playing basketball, it was business as usual and television ratings have gone up, with attendance hurt by the recession, not by wagering allegations.

Stern recently sat down with Sports Illustrated’s Ian Thomsen and betting on the NBA was brought up during the interview.

During this conversation, it was clear Stern has changed his views on people betting on the NBA for a variety of reasons.

With many country’s worldwide accepting wagers on team or individual sports, Stern was asked about potential for scandals.

"We used [the Donaghy revelations] as an opportunity to get better, to coordinate with law enforcement and go through a variety of processes that I don't necessarily want to detail publicly, but you are on ready alert," he said. "And we're mindful of what can happen, because we're more-than-interested bystanders in the European football scandal. Two-hundred [soccer] games are being looked at by law enforcement across the continent. It's fascinating to see what's happening. And we're mindful of the cricket [2007 World Cup match-fixing] issues, of the football referees in Germany -- there's a lot going on."

He then spoke as someone with a greater understanding of the marketplace and where our country is in general. "The betting issues are actually going to become more intense as states in the U.S. and governments in the world decide that the answers to all of their monetary shortfalls are the tax that is gambling."

While Stern stopped short of saying he would approve of such activity openly at this time, when asked if it were in the best interests of the league to seek legalization of sports wagering in the NBA, Thomsen observed a shift in body language of someone who was going to make a point that could later be used against him, but believed his own words.

"It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, 'No,' " he said."But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread -- even legally."

In looking at the landscape, where most states have lotteries, Indian casinos and Delaware presently above revenue expectations just allowing NFL parlays, Stern has absorbed all this information and reformulated his thought process. “Considering the fact that so many state governments -- probably between 40 and 50 -- don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone [else] should," Stern went on. "It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.

"So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there's a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in '92."

While Stern has often been considered stubborn and bullish, the whole Donaghy experience has brought out a different side of Stern, one more enlightened and not as close-minded in his beliefs. He sees the popularity of the NFL and has widely varied figures on something related to his sport, basketball, with March Madness, which fills Vegas hotels annually for the opening weekend, and also seemingly everyone filling out a pool sheets and making a bet amongst friends. He understands the revenue potential.

“Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side," he said. "Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well."Of course Stern will have opposition, but will also have those on side like the Maloof brothers who own the Sacramento Kings and the Palms Hotel and Casino just off the Vegas Strip.

Originally when the Palms was opened, they were allowed to have a sportsbook, but not able to take action on NBA games. The Maloof’s later stated their case after the city hosted the NBA All-Star game, wanting to take wagering action on all NBA games, except those involving the Kings and it was approved.

Stern’s latest comments were music the Sacramento owners’ ears.

“I’m thrilled to hear him say that,” Joe Maloof told Yahoo! Sports on Monday. “I think it does two things: First, it legitimizes gambling. It regulates it. That’s the most important thing. It’s clean. It’s honest. It’s fair.

“And then it creates a tremendous excitement for your product. People react differently when they have a bet on a game versus when they don’t. This is going to bring in great interest. If it’s regulated properly, this can be a tremendous revenue source for the league.”

Nationally, there is too much opposition from groups that want a sanitized world more reminiscent of the 1950’s and early 60’s. However, as individual states look to hang on to government programs and continue to see shortfalls, sports gambling will eventually be pursued more actively as another revenue source that will be taxed and monitored and be enjoyed more openly, as sports leagues like the NBA admit the world won’t end if people bet on sports.


Separate articles from Sports Illustrated.com and Yahoo.com provided the quotes for this piece.

Kevin O'Neill answers sports wagering issues

Lots of sports betting issues being kicked around by governments, courts, and the media right now. And those issues being raised generate a lot of questions. Let’s try to answer a few.

Q. Is Delaware set for full scale sports betting this fall?

A. It sure looks that way. The professional sports leagues had an emergency request to delay implementation of Delaware sports betting denied. They’ve appealed that ruling but it looks like Delaware sports betting is a go, at least until a December trial, where the leagues will sue to stop it.

It appears as though harness tracks Dover Downs and Harrington Raceway will be joined by thoroughbred plant Delaware Park in offering full scale sports wagering this fall. The tracks have invested millions to create sports book facilities. Vegas-style sports betting on college and pro sports kicks off on September 1st.

Q. Can anything else derail Delaware’s plan?

A. Senate Republicans Orrin Hatch of Utah and John Kyl of Arizona, longtime foes of gambling, wrote a letter to Attorney General Holder asking him to take action in Delaware. Tough to see the Obama Justice Department bending over backwards to accomodate that duo.

Q. New Jersey’s casinos can’t be happy about this, can they?

A. Not at all, this new challenge comes at a time when Atlantic City casino revenues are plummeting. There appears to be considerable momentum in the Garden State to legalize sports betting in an effort to counter Delaware’s foray into not only sports betting, but casino gambling as well. The problem is that Delaware, along with Oregon, Montana, and Nevada, is allowed to offer sports betting under federal law. When Congress banned sports betting in the US back in 1992, those four states were grandfathered, as they had all allowed sports betting in some form or fashion previously. Nevada’s offerings you’re aware of. Oregon, Montana, and Delaware’s previous offerings have all failed to stick. But those states can offer sports betting without a change in federal law. The same cannot be said for New Jersey.

Q. What about Barney Frank’s online gambling legislation?

A. Even if it passed, Frank’s legislation would not help sports bettors. It specifically exempts sports betting, and like-minded legislation by Senator Menendez introduced more recently covers only poker.

Q. What’s so special about poker, and why is poker being treated differently than sports betting?

A. Follow the money. The poker sites poured a bunch of money into lobbying and marketed it beautifully, making it look like a grassroots effort by enlisting the support of poker players all over the web. Hiring former Senator from New York Alfonse D’Amato as spokesman/lobbyist was a shrewd move. Meanwhile, the NFL has spent boatloads of money lobbying against sports betting. There’s no similar organized effort for sports betting.

This is from Sports and Gaming from Kevin O'Neill, who operates Real World Sports.

New York Yankees revenge-minded favorites

The New York Yankees hold down first place in the American League East, however that will be only one the things they will have on their minds as Boston comes to town for consequential four-game series. New York is 0 for 2009 against the Red Sox, having lost eight games to them and they fully realized many more losses could cost them coveted division crown.

With the Yankees having been outscored 55-31 by the BoSox this season, manager Joe Girardi framed succinctly what these games mean. “You want to get that zero, that goose egg out of there,” Girardi said. “We’re going to be asked about that goose egg as long as it’s there, so you want to get that out of the way as soon as possible.”

After playing sloppy baseball the first three games in Chicago, New York won the last contest against the White Sox and swept Toronto 2-0, including taking down Yankee-killer Roy Halladay. This has to give Girardi’s club a mental boost and they are 14-2 after six or more consecutive road games this season.

Boston (62-44, +3 units) limps into the Big Apple, after losing two to Tampa Bay, falling further behind the Bronx Bombers and letting the Rays narrow the gap for wild card to three games. The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent all season on the road, scoring 4.8 runs per game, but tending to do it bunches. This accounts for 27-27 record and they are only 18-29 playing against a team with win percentage of 54-to-62 percent in the second half of the season since last year.

Boston will be at another disadvantage, as pickup John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12 ERA) has been totally ineffective. In his last three starts, Smoltz has ERA of 9.18 and has been tagged for six home runs, not exactly recipe for success at long ball-friendly Yankee Stadium. Though the former Atlanta hurler didn’t walk a batter, he is 1-8 after allowing no free passes over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yanks Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) by contrast has been amazingly effective. He’s come up with several big performances when New York has needed them and in last three starts, he has 0.83 ERA over 21 innings, surrendering just eight hits, posting three wins. Chamberlain and his pin-striped teammates are 14-3 in his last 17 starts in the Bronx.

Sports bettors are pounding the money line at Bookmaker.com on New York, now up to -200 after opening at -170, with the total relatively stable at Un10. The Red Sox should have confidence based on this year’s results and are 22-7 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season. New York returns home feeling much the same way on three game winning streak. The Yankees are 20-6 off a victory and have won 27 of last 37 encounters. They have had their way with right-hand starters with sensational 17-4 record.

First pitch is set for 7:05 Eastern and though public perception is these rivals always play high-scoring games, they are 9-9 against the total playing in New York.

No Slack Sunday Info

Keep those 2-1 days comin’! Our goal today is that or more and Sal has been a huge part of recent success and has another Free Play. The Top Trend examines how the Royals play in a particular situation and the Best System is a virgin this season; however is the highest of quality at 91.8 percent. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Including tonight, the Detroit Tigers have seven more games left with the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers lead the season series 7-4 and if they can finish with a winning record over the Pale Hose, it will be just the second time in 18 years they will have won a season series against Chicago, remarkable.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Red Sox with a money line of -175 to 250, who are slightly below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a passable starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), in the second half of season. This is the first time this system has appeared this year and why it is so potent is because if the team is this large a favorite, given the situation as explained, they should win. Since 1997, 45-4, 91.8 percent. Gulp!

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-11 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.2 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 again on Saturday making him 28-7, 75 percent and he believes Houston is just too hot for the Mets.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor – If you wonder if this publication is worth the money, read this review. http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/fr/statfox09.htm

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