Cards look to send Milwaukee into vorago

The St. Louis Cardinals are cruising towards their fourth Central Division title and have two legitimate starting pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young this season. In addition, the Cardinals have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and the savvy front office move that delivered Matt Holliday to the city with the Arch was genius. With Holliday in the lineup, the Cardinals (83-57, +13.1 units) have soared, with a Major League best record of 31-11.

Today, one of St. Louis’ top hurlers, Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.68 ERA) will look to become the major’s first 18-game winner and contribute to the sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (66-72, -12.6 units). Before his last outing in which he allowed six runs in five innings, Wainwright had pitched 13 consecutive times conceding two runs or less. The right-hander’s value goes up even higher when you consider he is 10-1 on the road (Cardinals 12-1 in all starts) making a great choice for the postseason. Lifetime, Wainwright is 4-3 against Milwaukee, however this season is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA while allowing 14 hits in 23 1/3 innings against the Brew Crew.

Last year’s playoff euphoria has given way to frustration in Milwaukee, with a pitching staff unable to carry the load and too many feast or famine hitters in the lineup. The latter has been especially true with the Brewers having lost six of last eight, and totaling six hits or less in five of last six outings.

Jeff Suppan (6-8, 4.97) will be the Milwaukee starter and he’s 1-0 with 2.81 ERA since coming off the disabled list and he’s 7-3 in 14 starts against his old team.

Oddsmakers like those at DiamondSportsbook.com are unimpressed with Suppan’s recent pitching, looking at the bigger picture of how both teams are playing. They have installed St. Louis as -190 money line favorites, with the total at Ov8.5. Here is another very lucrative reason to think about the Cardinals today.

Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, a cold hitting team, batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a smoking starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.000 or less over his last five starts.

Since the 2005 season began, this has been one of the most reliable baseball systems you will find anywhere at 70-5 (that is correct) 93.3 percent. This has further been backed with the underdog a perfect 12-0 this year, when it comes to losing. If you still have even an inkling of doubt, take into consideration Wainwright and the Redbirds are 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and Suppan is 1-21 as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career. (Team's Record)

The Washington Nationals Stink

Here’s a news flash, the Washington Nationals are the worst team in baseball. OK, not exactly man bites dog material, but aren’t you curious what makes them so bad? Consider right today, they are on pace to have 47-115 record for the season. That would be the worst record since Detroit lost 119 games in 2003 and among the worst since 162-game schedule came into existence. To date, Washington has lost -25.1 units for the sports bettor, which places them at or very near to Arizona’s -60.1 units pace in 2004, which is the standard bearer since 1997.

Just how inept are the Nationals? Start with they are already -93 in runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 (Thru June 24). Why this is important is because they are being outscored by 1.35 runs per game, almost measuring up to the run line on a nightly basis, which includes their victories. The next worst team is San Diego at -72 RS/RA, which is a difference of a whopping 29 percent. For those that that have been betting against Washington on a regular basis, their average margin of loss is OVER three runs per game, that’s AVERAGE.

Since Third Eye Blind had the hit song “Semi-Charmed Life”, 11 teams have lost 28 or more units in a season. There are those that believe playing on the very worst teams in Major League Baseball after the All-Star break since they can’t play any worse and the better clubs won’t take them seriously and you could pick up a +220 underdog winner and cash now and again.

While that sounds really enticing, if you happen to see such an article or piece in a forum or website, email the writer and ask if you could their money to chase those bets. Bad teams as just that, bad.

So what is Washington’s problem? In all honesty it’s not really the offense’s fault, though they deserve some of the blame.

The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored at 4.26 per game, not great, but without a doubt better than Seattle at 3.9 per outing. Washington is 22nd in home runs and their hitters have a very good eye with three balls in the count, averaging 4.1 walks per game, second only to Boston, who is the best in baseball. They do have free swingers and any team with Adam Dunn is going to be ringing up strikeouts and the Nationals total 7.9 per game, which is 26th. Manager Manny Acta’s club lacks clutch hitters, ranking dead last in runners left on base at 8.1 per nine innings.
If it’s not the hitting, it must be pitching and is it ever.

The Nationals front office made the decision they were not going to win with retread pitchers who couldn’t hold jobs with other clubs, thus they decided to throw their youngsters into the fire and live with the consequences. That means John Lannan, Colin Balester, Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman, who are all 24 years old or younger, would be thrown to the wolves and see how they would survive. As expected, the results haven’t been good on almost any level.

Washington surrenders 5.6 runs per game, which is 30th overall. The Nats staff is pounded for 9.5 runs per contest (27th) and concedes the second most extra bases hits at 3.6 PG. The starters are 29th in Quality Starts, with only neighboring Baltimore worse.

With so many youngsters, finding the strike zone on consistent basis figured to be an issue and it is. They allow 4.2 free passes per game (30th) and total 5.6 strikeouts (28th), making it less than challenging to determine Washington is last in K/W ratio.

While the front office wants to develop scare tissue on its kiddie corps, they also keep them on a shorter leash, keeping track of pitch counts. With this many young arms, they build pitch counts quickly, exposing a bullpen ill-equipped to handle the workload. The pen has an ERA of 5.45, which suggests even if the Nationals have a lead late in games, they would be prone to losing leads and they have. Washington’s non-starters have blown 17 saves (which includes more than one in the same game) out of 28 chances, coming in an outlandish 39.2 save percentage. This worn-out group lacks ability and isn’t helped by being just one of four teams in baseball with a single shutout.

Other pitching factors including being 28th in first pitch strikes and they lead the majors in four ball walks.

It’s apparent Washington is in for very L O N G season and they could threaten the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses, though are not likely to finish 60.5 games out of first place like Casey Stengel’s squad did when their were no divisions. The Nationals figure to possibly come close to Arizona’s futility concerning wagering of five years ago at current pace as Play Against team supreme.

The jettison of manager Acta is a foregone conclusion, with the idea of starting a pool and let people pick dates for his departure sort of fun in a morbid way. In a city built on winning at (not the sports teams) any cost, the Nationals are a bad fit.