OMG It's Bowl Time! Hurray!!!!!!

Do we really need 34 bowl games, not really. But do we need a bunch of worthless apps on our cell phones or what about all the waste on Direct TV, how many of those channels go unused? The bowl season is blast because you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want. And for the sports bettor its Christmas every day, with games packed into watchable segments. These 20 days of college football reminds me of the Travel Channel’s Man vs. Food and if you stomach all 34 games, man wins!

New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
4:30E ESPN

The best aspect of playing the very first game of the college football bowl season is you don’t have a long layoff from the end of your last game and you can be home for the holidays. The first contest also ends up being the center of attention for the crazy people that watch every bowl game (guilty as charged) and those that feel compelled to not be very selective and wager on all 34 games because of how they are spread out.

By extremely subjective means, this bowl rates the 27th best to watch. It starts with Fresno State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) who has strong characteristics to take in this bowl game. They have a star player in junior running back Ryan Mathews, who led the nation in rushing at 151.3.
The Bulldogs ranked 19th in total offense at 435.9 yards per game and 15th in scoring at 34.3 points per game. Though some might question Fresno State’s resolve with repeat appearance in Albuquerque, coach Pat Hill will have none of that talk. “This game and this experience will be good for the development of our team and program as we build toward the future,” Hill told the Fresno Bee.

Since Hill has been at FSU, he’s always been an “us against them” coach and losing last year to another Mountain West team (40-35 to Colorado State) just adds incentive. The Bulldogs are notorious bad bets and after nipping Illinois at the wire 53-52 in Champaign, they are 2-11 ATS after allowing 50 points or more in last game. On the season they are 1-4 SU against fellow bowlers with three covers.

Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) isn’t a very good team, however they dressed up rather nicely for bettors with superior spread record. First year coach Dave Christensen made a lot of changes, but the most important was the turnover margin. Last season’s 4-8 team was -22, this year a complete alternation to +7. On the year Wyoming is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS when they scored 29 or more points and were 0-5 and 2-3 ATS when they totaled 10 or few points. (Shutout three times)

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and will have to match points to stay in the game with Fresno State who allows 27.2 PPG. Wyoming is 1-5 and 4-2 ATS against bowl teams this season.

These teams used to meet annually when they played in the WAC together until 1997. Fresno State is 10-8 SU and 6-6 ATS in bowls and is 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Wyoming is 5-6 and 3-3 ATS in bowl assignments and has not been favored in last six. The underdog has won and covered two of three New Mexico Bowls.

Bookmaker.com has Fresno State 10.5-point favorite with total of 55.

3DW Line – Fresno State by 12

St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL
8:00E ESPN

Later on the first night of bowling, this bowl matchup comes in at 28th which might sound a little low; given both teams have pretty solid records. What this matchup lacks is sex appeal, kind of like looking for Elin Nordegren and winding up with Mindy Lawton. (Cheap Tiger shot, but fitting) Both Central Florida and Rutgers were 8-4 on the season and each is known for above average defenses and inconsistent offenses.

UCF (9-2 ATS) has to make the relatively short journey down I-4 from Orlando and coach George O’Leary relishes the opportunity. “We are thrilled to have this opportunity to play so close to our fans in St. Petersburg,” O’Leary said. “It will be great to have a large fan base behind us as we go for our ninth victory against a quality team from the Big East Conference. It is a great opportunity and one that I know our players wanted.”

The Knights strength is defense. Central Florida is fifth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.1 per game and registered 7.6 tackles for loss (11th overall). Of the 120 teams in the FBS, they were fourth in stopping the run at 82.5 yards per game against teams that averaged 146 YPG. UCF is 6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive SU wins and since last year.

Rutgers (5-7 ATS) probably ended up where they belonged, yet the season had a tinge of disappointment. The offense and defense dismantled weaker competition save Syracuse, but the Scarlet Knights were 0-3 SU and ATS against the best three teams from the Big East, being outscored 95-53. The offensive line was supposed to be the strong suit of Rutgers, however they have been irresolute, which comprised quarterback Tom Savage’s freshman campaign. With Central Florida’s ability to make plays up the field, the O-Line will have to step. The Scarlet Knights lost their last game to West Virginia and is 26-12 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.

The Knights from Florida are 2-4 and 4-2 ATS against bowl squads in 2009. The Knights from New Jersey are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. teams playing in the postseason. This is Central Florida’s third bowl contest and they have yet to post a victory (1-1 ATS). This is Rutgers fifth consecutive bowl and they are 3-2 SU and ATS all-time.

Bookmaker.com has Rutgers favored by 2.5 with total of 44.

3DW Line – Rutgers by 6

Championship Saturday

Our last post was another 2-1 day and we believe we have the right stuff to make today even better. We’ll start with an 85.3 percent system on the gridiron that is perfect this season. That is followed by a perfect trend in the ACC title game and finally Steve of the Left Coast Connection has it going on and releases his Best Bet today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I’m caught in one of those rare situations where I want to bet one team but I really like the other team. When I say like, I mean I want them to win. This doesn’t happen often for me, but it does occur. I actually like the 11-0 Cincinnati team. I like the way they play, I like their coach and I would like to see them go unbeaten. That aside, I have the suspicion they may have peaked, especially on defense and I believe an angry Pittsburgh team beats them. I’ll be rooting for the Bearcats and don’t want money to take away from my enjoyment of watching the game and pulling me in opposite directions.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Louisiana Tech, who are average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 or higher YPP), in conference games. This system checks in at 29-5 ATS, 85.3 percent, with 3-0 mark this season.

Free Football Trend-2) Georgia Tech is 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve’s hot streak continues and he is making a big play on Rutgers today.

Thursday Night Action

Finally! Nailed down a pair of winners, so let’s go for the whole enchilada today and sweep the board. The Best System involves tonight’s NFL matchup at 80 percent. The Top Trend is perfect 13-0 on the ice this evening and Marty looks to continue Hot streak in college football. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I learned yesterday – Brandon Jennings of the Milwaukee Bucks looks like a very good rookie. He has weakness, but what first year player wouldn’t. Definitely impressed.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites like San Fran when playing on a Thursday. (24-6 ATS, L5Y)

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Boston Bruins are 13-0 when playing against a team with win percentage of 25 to 40 percent in the first half of the season over the last two years.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit 10 of last 11 CFB plays and is on Rutgers.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed CFB Winner

The Platinum Sheet has expert hitting 66 percent on Best Bets.

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South Florida Flipped as Favorite

This Thursday evening Big East battle is about bowl placement as much as anything. Earlier conference defeats have relegated these clubs to more minor bowls; however either is capable of finishing 10-2, if they win this contest. Both programs have to feel good about the future, at least from the quarterback position, with freshmen B.J. Daniels for South Florida and Tom Savage at Rutgers at the helm.

South Florida (6-2, 4-3 ATS) showed fire in the belly, upsetting West Virginia at home 30-19 as 2.5-point underdogs, after losing to front-running Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. Daniels played his most complete game in that win and has the ability to make plays with his feet and shown a good touch on deep passes that has led to several big plays by the Bulls offense. Rutgers is 0-11 ATS when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards per attempt.

On defense, linemen George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul mess with their opponents passing game, able to apply steady pressure and safety Nate Allen makes big plays all over the field. The weakness of this group is when an opposing team lines up and runs right at them, like the Bearcats and Panthers did for combined 403 yards on the ground. South Florida is 1-8 ATS as favorites against team with over .600 record.

The Scarlet Knights (6-2, 3-5 ATS) defense matches up numbers wise against South Florida (322.9 vs. 315.6 yards allowed), however much of that came against inferior competition. What Greg Schiano’s defense has to do is take away the Bulls rushing attack (3.3 YPG allowed) and play Cover 2 defensive principles, forcing Daniels to be accurate thrower underneath, which has not been his strength to date. They lead the Big East in takeaways with 25.

On offense, have RB Joe Martinek use his big body to run downhill at the USF defense, which sets up Savage in the play-action passing game. Rutgers is 9-1 ATS since last season after a SU victory.

South Florida has gone as one-point road favorite to two-point underdog with total at 45 at Bookmaker.com. Both universities come in with negative trends, with the Bulls 5-8 ATS in last 13 Big East road games and the Scarlet Knights 10-21-1 ATS with extra time off. Rutgers is also a train wreck with 3-16 ATS mark in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better, however, almost two weeks have passed since that occurred.

The underdog has had plenty of bite; with perfect 4-0 spread record the last four years. The average score in that time span is surprising 60 points per game.

The Big East and ESPN get a head start on the NFL, with his matchup commencing at 7:45 Eastern, with USF on 0-4 ATS Thursday slide.

Rutgers makes quick trip to banks of the Hudson River

Expect a packed house this Friday as Rutgers makes the 95-mile journey to West Point to take on the Army. This is the Scarlet Knights second straight Friday night contest and they trail in the all-time series 18-17. This is a dangerous contest for Rutgers, off a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs and before trip to Connecticut.

If Rutgers takes Army (3-5, 2-6 ATS) too lightly, the defense could be on the field all night. The Black Knights of the Hudson run the option 53 times a game for 4.2 yards per carry. Teams lacking discipline to play assignment football and if they tackle poorly, will be on the field for a long time. Though Army possesses the ball for over 33 minutes a game, they lack big play explosion, which is why they average 17.9 points per game. Army is just 1-10 ATS against the Big East.

Rutgers (4-2, 1-5 ATS) has placed the offense in the hands of freshman quarterback Tom Savage. He was a top recruit with a big time arm. When given time, he’s been able to showcase his talent and presumably will against Army, who lacks the players to build consistent pass rush like Pitt did a week ago. Coach Greg Schiano is not completely comfortable in turning the entire offense over to Savage and would prefer to run the ball. Rutgers has been outright dominant in this series, winning last four by 30 points per contest and is on 6-0 ATS run.

Army has already matched their win total of three from last season under new coach Rich Ellerson and envisions five W’s as real possibility. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Black Knights as 10.5-point underdogs with a total of 38.5 points. Being a home dog hasn’t been much help for Army, sporting a 13-28-1 ATS record.

This will be just the second road game for Rutgers and they have covered five in a row. They are 19-7 UNDER in non-conference games, while Army is 11-3 UNDER after one or more losses against the spread over the last three seasons.

Army’s best hope is Rutgers is thinking ahead to Connecticut next. That is not a given with Rutgers 15-8 ATS as double digit favorites. ESPN2 has the coverage at 8 Eastern.

Pittsburgh's cry for help against Rutgers

The look on Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt is often pained. Some say it a reminder of his own coaching limitations while others suggest Wanny is not often pleased with the results his teams provide. Whatever the reason, mention the team “Rutgers” and you are sure to see a head snap, a shoulder shrug and eyes downcast.

“They’ve had our number the last four years,” Wannstedt said.

Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has dropped four in a row to the Scarlet Knights, failing to cover the spread three times. It’s no magic formula either, Rutgers has whipped the Panthers running the ball down their throats and passing them silly.

Coach Wannstedt believes his squad is better equipped to handle the assignment this year with a very sturdy defensive front seven that is that permitting just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Pitt offense has been sharp all season, averaging better than 34 points per game. The running game has really come together behind a road-grating offense line and freshman running sensation Dion Lewis. Pittsburgh averages 5.0 yards per carry against defenses that have allowed 3.8 YPC. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in October of late.

One of the most improved quarterbacks in the country is Bill Stull of Pitt. Anyone who saw him play in last year’s Sun Bowl would have thought he would have a hard time making the team again. But Stull worked hard in the off-season and presently has 13 TD passes while throwing only three interceptions.

“Bill Stull is playing at an efficiency level that is as good as anyone in the country,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Pittsburgh is 19th in the country in yards per pass attempt as 8.5.

Rutgers (4-1, 1-2 ATS) is a hard team to have a very good feel about. They were overwhelmed by Cincinnati in the season opener 47-7, before anyone knew how good the Bearcats were. Home wins over FCS teams Howard and Texas Southern offer no insight and Florida International and Maryland are frequently good homecoming opponents.

Here are a few things we do know about Rutgers. Their defense, sixth ranked versus the rush in the country, might be somewhat fraudulent, nonetheless nothing fake about forcing 15 turnovers in last four games, no matter the competition level. They shutout Texas Southern 42-0 in last contest and are 8-1-1 ATS off a SU victory.

True freshman quarterback Tom Savage is a real talent and has started three games. He played some against Cincinnati, but this will be his first real test under center involving Big East football.

The offensive line returned all five starters and was presumed to be the strength of the team. They haven’t played up to press clippings and though the running game has improved against inferior teams, they have allowed 14 sacks through five games, the most in the conference. With Pittsburgh having a very good defensive line, the Rutgers O-Line has stay out of third and longs to help their youthful field general. The Knights are 4-1-1 ATS after a win by 20 or more points.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as six-point road favorites with total having fallen dramatically from 51 to 45.5. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS on the road, but are just 6-13 ATS as favorites. They are 6-2 UNDER after totaling 450 or more yards of offense. Rutgers is in a role they are very comfortable in; showcasing 10-4 ATS mark as home underdog. The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 UNDER after a game where they forced three or more turnovers since 2007.

This the second Big East nationally televised cable matchup on ESPN in two nights and it starts at 8 Eastern, with the underdog 6-1 against the spread. Rutgers cannot afford a second conference loss with five more games to play.

Bet the Freakin' Farm on Rutgers

Earlier this year, it was suggested by several writers across the lower 48 and myself that possibly Greg Schiano, the Rutgers coach, had made a bad career move and not moved on from Rutgers after celebrated 11-2 season in 2006. As we are all aware, timing is extremely important in life. Last season was not expected to be as positive as the previous year with too many defensive players graduated, and the Scarlet Knights went to a second consecutive bowl game for the first time ever and got a pat on the head for finishing 8-5.

The warm and fuzzy feelings were dissipating for Rutgers, being predicted no better than fourth in most preseason magazines despite 15 returning starters and an experienced signal caller like Mike Teel. The season started a complete disaster, with home televised losses to Fresno State and North Carolina, followed by a loss at Navy. At 0-3 and turnover margin of -8, things were looking bleaker than the New Jersey economy.

A 38-0 win against Morgan State did not turn anyone’s head, especially after losing at West Virginia and Cincinnati, though covering the spread the last two. A gut wrenching, hard fought 12-10 win over Connecticut stemmed the negativity and changed the entire attitude of the team and the program.

After the offense went three weeks without committing a turnover, Teel and his receivers finally clicked, totaling 371 yards passing at Pittsburgh, who had been hot, and cruised to a 54-34 road upset as 9.5-point underdogs. The Knights have won their last three games by 114-36, becoming bowl eligible and can cement the invite with win tonight over Louisville (5-6, 4-6 ATS).

Once college football teams hit November, their lot is cast, oh sure the occasional upset occurs, but for the most part if you are playing well, you continue to and the same goes the other way. With Rutgers on five game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 20 points, no team is playing better in the Big East and that might include BCS bound league champ Cincinnati. With Teel and the offense on fire, Rutgers is 10-1 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons.

Now take a team picture of Louisville. Since upsetting what was believed to be a still good South Florida team 24-20 at home in late October (Rutgers beat USF 49-13 at there place), the Cardinals have crashed to earth with four losses in a row, committing 14 turnovers along the way. None of these defeats have been competitive either, failing to cover the spread in any of the four, making Louisville colder than a Papa John’s pizza delivered an hour late.

A few hardy contrarians will point to this is the perfect setup for Louisville to upset Rutgers, thinking another Brohm brother is still playing quarterback and this is the Cardinals from a few seasons ago. Enough bettors are going that way with the line at Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets having dropped to 10.5 points after opening at 13, with a total of 51. The Knights are 8-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.
Remember all the love defensive coordinator Ron English was receiving for keeping the Cardinals in games with the defense, 132 points and 435 yards per game later after four straight losses, the praise has turned to mumbling.

What I’m proposing in the title of the article, is to bet the farm, seeing most people don’t have farms to wager, from a legal standpoint, I’m on solid ground. With the Rutgers defense having allowed more than 17 points just once in last six games and Teel throwing laser shots to receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown, expect coach Schiano and his team to triumph by 20 points and easily cover the spread like a fresh cover of snow on the grass.