Jets at Chargers Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don’t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn’t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn’t look to stop a portion of a team’s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who’s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don’t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it’s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there’s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn’t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York’s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

Week 15 in the NFL

It’s the last Sunday before Christmas and NFL teams are scurrying like busy shoppers to find that one last game that could put them in the postseason. Philadelphia has climbed atop of the NFC East standings and needs to win out to earn the third seed, while San Francisco didn’t let their playoff dreams die with Monday night upset. Miami is in better position than Tennessee as they prepare to meet, will they still be at the end of the day? Baltimore is expected to put Chicago on the sale rack, yet are the Ravens fully focused with Pittsburgh on deck. Speaking of the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s Jim Mora time (Playoffs?), they just need a victory and they’ll face one of the hottest and most complete teams at the moment in Green Bay who is looking to secure top NFC wild card. What do you make of Cincinnati at San Diego, as the Bengals continue to deal with mounting injuries and yet another death within the organization. Wicked weather up and down the East Coast will also impact games, as totals have in several cases.

San Francisco at Philadelphia 4:15E FOX

In need of a key win to stay atop the NFC East, Philadelphia (9-4, 8-5 ATS) squares off against a team it has had its way with in recent years, the 49ers. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has throttled San Francisco by at least two touchdowns in each of the last three meetings and the offense has scored 40 points per game in those contests. Those routs contribute to a trend of 26-12 ATS mark vs. NFC West foes under Reid. After beating New York Sunday night, Philly has its sights set on the NFC East title, and has two home games slotted before the season finale in Dallas. San Francisco (6-7, 8-3 ATS) has won just once in six road games in ’09, but has been competitive to the tune of 3-1-2 ATS. Dating back a little further in this head-to-head series, road teams own a 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS edge since 1992.

Keys to the Game-

Philadelphia has won four in a row, covering three times thanks in part to +5 turnover margin in those games. The offense has hardly missed a beat ranking third in points scored (28.6) despite numerous key injuries. For this matchup it’s how the defense performs. The 49ers like to play rough, which the recent shoddy tackling won’t work against Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. The Eagles can’t allow either player to be a big factor. Alex Smith reads the defense better out of the shotgun when passing, this leaves it up to the Philly defense to disguise blitz packages and force Smith to go to second and third options, definitely not his strength. Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS at after allowing 35 points or more last game.

The playoff pulse may be faint for the Niners, but at least they have one. San Francisco stymied Arizona twice this year and must utilize similar gameplan against Eagles. This includes tight bump and run coverage on the outside and pressure on off the edges forcing Donovan McNabb to throw in traffic. Patrick Willis blitzes have to get to McNabb. There will be bad plays, but rollout Smith to avoid pressure and take deep shots, as Davis and Michael Crabtree are proving they can catch the ball in traffic. Keep Gore moving with quick-hitting runs. Little known fact, Monday night winners as road underdogs in next game are 9-2-1 ATS the last four years.

3DW Line – Philadelphia by 7
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Philadelphia -7.5, 41

Miami at Tennessee 1:00E CBS

Miami and Tennessee are in a grouping of teams in the AFC still holding on to wildcard playoff hopes. Unquestionably, the loser of this week’s game is in trouble in that regard. If series history is any indication, that team would be Miami (7-6 SU & ATS), as favorites have swept the previous four contests between these teams while going 3-1 ATS. From a matchup perspective, the Dolphins are up against a treacherous spot with 4-14 ATS record versus excellent rushing teams averaging 150 or more on the ground since 1992. Nevertheless, the Fins are on impressive six-game ATS winning streak in road finales. The Titans (6-6-1 ATS) are 6-7 after beating St. Louis and have won six of their last seven. This is the middle encounter of a three-game homestand for them and they are 12-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards twice in a row.

Keys to the Game-

Miami stuffed Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground last week (59 yards) and the defense will called upon again to contain the NFL’s leading rusher Chris Johnson. It takes all 11 guys to prevent Johnson from hitting big plays. If the Dolphins want to have something to play for in final two home games, they have to clean up road miscues. Miami is fortunate to be 3-4 SU as visitors, as they own -9 turnover margin on the road. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in road engagements against AFC opponents the last two seasons and will turn to fullback Lousaka Polite, who has made tremendous impact on third down and on short yardage plays. He’s 13 for 13 on third or fourth and one this year.

Johnson needs 160 yards a game to break Eric Dickerson all-time rushing record. He’s allowed Vince Young to grown as a quarterback, being the necessary threat to balance the offense and be game-changer and back who runs out the clock for Titans. Second year quarterback Chad Henne, like many young QB’s, is not as efficient on the road. A healthy Tennessee secondary had been picking off more passes since ending losing streak, make Henne throw into small windows. Jeff Fisher’s squad is 8-4 ATS after winning by 14 or more points and has to tackle Ricky Williams before he turns the corner or gets into the secondary.

3DW Line – Tennessee by 5
Bookmaker.com Line – Tennessee -5, 43

Chicago at Baltimore 4:15E FOX

Baltimore plays its third straight game vs. a NFC North foe, and so far the results have been mixed, bad on the road, good at home. Fortunately, this week’s contest is in the latter grouping, versus the bumbling Bears, who have lost eight of their last nine games against the spread. The last time Chicago (5-8, 4-9 ATS) visited an AFC team, it was clobbered by Cincinnati 45-10, and in this game they will be looking to negate a trend that finds them 7-25 ATS in December road contests. Baltimore (7-6 SU & ATS) has thrived under John Harbaugh versus bad teams, going 8-0 ATS against those with a losing record, including last week’s walloping of Detroit. That win kept the Ravens’ playoff hopes afloat, but following this home finale, they’ll spend their final two weeks on the road, at Pittsburgh and Oakland.

Keys to the Game-

San Diego and Indianapolis run the ball nearly as bad Chicago, who is dead last in the NFL at 85.7 yards per game. One HUGE difference, they both have prolific passing attacks, the Bears, not so much. For Chicago to pull the upset, they have to create any kind of seam for Matt Forte to run thru since the door has been closed most of the season. Da Bears are 9-21 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season and have to rattle QB Joe Flacco, since the Ravens receivers are average at best. Baltimore averages 4.6 yards per carry (5th), Chicago surrenders 4.4 YPC (20th), which suggests the Bears front seven has to lower this figure to under four to stay competitive.

Because of the end of the season playoff chatter, Baltimore hung a Navy triple option-like 308 yards rushing on Detroit last week. The offensive line made every running play look like a trip to the bowling alley, knocking Lions down with ease in averaging 7.7 yards per carry. The Bears defensive front has been nothing special and they will at least try to simulate similar results. They should give Flacco time to find open receivers in Chicago secondary, with the Ravens 20-8 ATS after rushing for 175 or more yards. Baltimore secondary is not adequate versus most good passing teams, the Bears’ pass catchers sloppy routes and Jay Cutler’s lack of accuracy creates turnover potential for them. Chicago's attitude about arriving late in Baltimore will play a factor in the outcome.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 11
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -11, 39

Cincinnati at San Diego 4:05E CBS

Perhaps the biggest game on the Week 15 NFL slate, Cincinnati and San Diego go head-to-head with a possible bye in the first round of the playoffs hanging in the balance. For the Bengals (6-7 ATS), the mere thought of that was highly improbable at the outset of 2009, yet here they are, 9-4 and headed towards the AFC North title. They have been particularly effective as underdogs, sporting 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. They will need to come up with a truly special effort to upset San Diego though, as the Chargers (7-6 ATS) have won their last eight games to move to 10-3. They have also done very well historically against Cincinnati, compiling a 7-2 SU and ATS record in last nine meetings. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are now 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in December after their win in Dallas.

Keys to the Game –

It has been an unbelievable 2009 for the Bengals. It is hard to fathom their mental state after the death Chris Henry. Helping assistant coach Mike Zimmer overcome the loss of wife is one thing, but this is a teammate. It’s not like Cincinnati has been sailing along either, particularly on offense. Since ringing up 45 on the Bears, Cincy has totaled a mere 16.8 points per game, with almost no pass offense. From scheme perspective, all their AFC North rivals run the same 3-4 defense as San Diego, making preparation simpler. Cincinnati has seen too many third and longs of late and has to do a better job of managing down and distance. The Bengals are 6-3-1 ATS in the second of two road tilts and will have to have monster games from corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who are talented enough to limit San Diego receivers.

Though it may sound callous, San Diego has to start fast to make Cincinnati players feel worse than they already do. The Bengals has presented little in the way of passing, thus blitz Carson Palmer repeatedly. Offensively, make them play the whole field, throw short and long, run screens to both sides and mix in running game. The Chargers are a momentum team and are 12-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins since 2007. Cincinnati ranks second in the NFL in both average number of plays on scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19), making it imperative San Diego doesn’t allow them to dominate the time they possess the pigskin. Watch this closely, as the Bolts have conceded 5.1 yards per carry in last four games.

3DWLine – San Diego by 10.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -7, 43.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh 4:15E FOX

Pittsburgh has lost its last five games and, by all rights, seems to have been removed from any playoff consideration. In fact, Green Bay (9-4) can thank schedule makers for giving them the Steelers at the right time. Even still, this is a dangerous spot for the Packers (8-4-1 ATS), who look to hang on to their wildcard position in the NFC playoff standings. This is the second of back-to-back road games for them after the win in Chicago last week and upped their road mark to 20-9 ATS under coach Mike McCarthy. Pittsburgh (6-7, 4-9 ATS) is in the unsightly situation of a defending champion relegated to spoiler for the last three weeks of the season. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in their previous games hosting the NFC. Home teams have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in last four get-togethers between these storied franchises.

Keys to the Game-

Green Bay has never played in Heinz Field, last visiting Pittsburgh 11 years ago. This is not ideal location to get kicker Mason Crosby back on track, nonetheless, unless he stops missing makeable field goals, eventually the Pack will be picked off. Excellent game for Packers to use tight ends, as Steelers will blitz from every direction and try to double wide receivers depending on formation. Utilize Jermichael Finley extensively. With Green Bay looking like NFC wild card club, McCarthy should change up red zone offense to add more traditional sets to increase productively since empty backfield has seen mixed at best results. The Pack’s second rated defense can lead the way since they are 6-0 AT in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two consecutive contests.

Pittsburgh can only blame themselves for this five-game losing streak. The Steelers have lost to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, who are a combined 6-30 if you take away their wins over Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh players are to learn one lesson, they found out they couldn’t just “turn it on” when they felt like it and if that same attitude persists, Green Bay will cuff them. This whole Ben Roethlisberger taking sacks is getting old, since the physical beating has to be taking a toll and he needs to get rid the ball and make better reads or the Packers defenders will be all over him as well. It’s been 35 games since Steelers allowed 100-yard rusher, however they have surrendered over 137 yards per game in their last three and take on a hot one-cut back in Ryan Grant. Pitt is 13-1 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, does Steelers pride show up?

3DW Line – Green Bay by 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Pittsburgh -2, 41

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you played Jacksonville or Kansas City this past Sunday, your nerve-endings were tingling, only to be slapped upside the head late in the game. The Jaguars came into their game against Miami well-positioned at 7-5 to take an AFC playoff berth despite being outscored on the season. Midway thru the second quarter it was apparent, the Dolphins had everything Jacksonville did not. A better running game, solid quarterback play, a stronger defense and more crowd support despite being on the road.

The one thing Miami didn’t have after building 14-0 lead, was ability to put the Jaguars away. Jacksonville, despite being thoroughly outplayed (Fins 22-10 edge in first downs and 137 more yards of offense), were in position to cover the 2 or 2.5-points after a first down on their own 49-yard line with under three minutes to play. The Jaguars had no success running the ball all day (3.8 yards per carry), especially up the middle. On a fourth down and three, to keep the drive alive on the Miami 44, the Jacksonville offensive coordinator calls a David Garrard quarterback draw. Those that had the Dolphins with the points had to be laughing hysterically about one of the most foolish offensive calls all season given the circumstances. Did we at 3Daily Winners miss something in not rolling out Garrard to the right, with a three passing options at 5, 10, and 15 yards? No, let’s run the quarterback draw for a four yard loss.

Thanks to Matt Cassel’s four interceptions (not all his fault) Kansas City could not overcome a bumbling Buffalo team that led 16-10, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gargantuan 86 yards of passing. The Chiefs had one final outstanding opportunity to win the game outright as underdogs in the latter stages of fourth quarter and it underscored the value of talent. On third and ten at the Bills 21, Cassel threw a perfect pass to Chris Chambers at the five yard line, right in his belly, with nobody within three yards of him and he dropped it.

While there is no way to know if Kansas City would have scored a touchdown from there, it brought up another point. San Diego released Chambers earlier this season, as they felt he was no longer able to play for a team that still entertained a deep playoff run. The Chiefs picked Chambers up and he immediately became a big part of the coach Todd Haley’s pass offense.

While Chambers has proved he still has NFL ability, he no longer is coveted by championship-type teams. He’s an adequate fill-in for a team lacking in receivers. Though the top receivers in the game fail now and again, Chambers drop likely was the game and illustrated why the Chefs (intentional) are 3-10 and 5-8 ATS.

This whole Dallas dumping in December is a fact, no matter what coaches, players and a certain owner believes. Since 1996, they are 18-33 SU and they have lost 10 of last 15 in the final month of the year. After all these years, it’s not just bad luck or misfortune; it’s a pattern of behavior.

Do you want to know the problem with the Cowboys, they are front-runners. Much like a horse that races out to early lead, Dallas does the same thing year after year and sports bettors turn into lemmings following “America’s Team”. As opposed to a horse that just tires out, Dallas lacks the mental and intestinal fortitude to tough things out. The last two weeks were examples of the Cowboys not losing to better teams, rather to squads better prepared and with greater desire.

How do measure desire, this way. With San Diego leading 13-10 and 9:13 to go in the game, the Chargers had rushed for 41 net yards to that point. From that point forward, the Bolts ran off over seven minutes off the clock and added 32 rushing yards to their total. The San Diego offensive line, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles wanted the game just a little more than the Cowboys did at that critical juncture and they took it. It’s not a coincidence the Chargers have won 16 consecutive games in December. Dallas doesn’t have the players that can raise their level of play at crunch time, period, making sportsbooks loads of cash with the public backing the ‘Boys.

Betting points – The Bengals streak of games with the underdog covering (12-0 ATS) this season, ended with curious non-effort in Minnesota. You have to wonder if something is wrong with Carson Palmer, as he threw just 25 times for 94 yards, despite his team trailing by 16 or more points most of the second half. Very much a play against team with four consecutive spread losses.

A quick way to rebuild a wagering account is follow the Oakland Raiders off a victory. With the Washington 34-13 wipeout, since their 2002 Super Bowl season, Da Raiders are 6-20 and 9-17 ATS after posting a W, including 0-4 SU and ATS in 2009.

There is still time to fix it, but New Orleans is losing focus late in the year on a balanced offense. All season coach Sean Payton has mixed the run and pass to near perfection, yet in the last two weeks, both spread defeats, the Saints have thrown 90 times compared to 50 runs. Coach Payton needs to lean more on the running game or a surprise early postseason ouster could be in New Orleans future even if they manage 16-0 regular season.

The AFC has clinched at least a tie in not losing to the NFC in inter-conference play for the 14th straight year. The AFC leads 32-23 and needs just one win in last nine games to take season record to 11-0-3 since 1996. For NFL bettors, it has made little difference with the record 27-27-1 ATS this year.

NFL Week 14 Key Games

With a quarter of a season to go, the NFL schedule-makers offer us thought provoking matchups that could send teams down different paths than it looked a few weeks ago. The Cincinnati offense has been languishing, despite adding up victories and figures to have to score at Minnesota. Denver has rebounded with a couple of wins, can they put the brakes on Colts perfect season? The Cowboys final month travails are potentially enhanced with a wicked December slate, now having to face one of the hottest teams in the league from San Diego. Miami and Jacksonville doesn’t generate much buzz outside of the sunshine state, yet both are still in AFC playoff hunt. New England, what is going on? Carolina is about to find out.

Cincinnati at Minnesota 1:00E CBS

Intra-conference division leaders collide in Minnesota, with each hoping to get closer to locking down their titles. The Vikings (7-4-1 ATS) are 10-2 after losing at Arizona. The other loss was of course, at the hands of Cincinnati’s rival, the Steelers. The Bengals (6-6 ATS) are 9-3, embarking on a road trip that features stops at the Metrodome and at San Diego. They will be the underdog in both, which may be a welcomed sign for Marvin Lewis, whose team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the dog role this season. They are also 3-0 vs. the NFC and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall vs. the opposite conference. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS at home under Brad Childress in the final four weeks of the regular season. The host has been less than cordial in last three meetings between these teams, winning by 17.7 points per game.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati has established they can run the ball, ranking sixth at 133.9 yards per game. It is now time to fix the passing game, which has averaged 156.5 yards per game the last month. That might work against the three crummy teams they just played (though they failed to cover each contest), but it won’t cut it come playoff time. No Chris Henry in the slot weakens Bengals passing, however somebody has to take the challenge and Carson Palmer has to be more precise. The Bengals defense has incurred far more injuries than the offense and they keep playing at high level. They will have to on Vikings carpet, first containing Adrian Peterson and then pressuring Brett Favre similar to what Arizona did last week. If not, Cincy falls to 2-10 ATS on the road off a SU non-division victory.

After a slower than expected start, the Minnesota run defense has moved up to second in the NFL. (Behind the Bengals) The front four is going to have to make a few more plays with middle linebacker E.J. Henderson gone for the year. Rookie Jasper Brinkley has to make enough plays to cover up for the loss. The Vikings have to force Cincinnati to throw the ball. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS home off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and they will add another if they give Peterson only 13 carries like they did last week. The Cardinals did a great job pestering Favre; still Peterson has to have more touches.

3DW Line – Minnesota by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Minnesota -6.5, 43.5

Miami at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

Though both Miami and Jacksonville play in the AFC, they aren’t exactly rivals, as they meet more in the preseason than they do when it matters. In fact, this will be just the fifth all-time meeting, as each team looks to hang on in the AFC wildcard hunt. The Dolphins (6-6 ATS) are still breathing after upsetting New England, but at 6-6 would need to win out vs. four other fellow contenders to even have a shot. The Jaguars (5-7 ATS) are 7-5, and although their chances are better, their stats (-4.0 PPG margin) and upcoming schedule (Indy, at N.E.) suggest a postseason berth isn’t in their future either. Jacksonville moved to 2-4 ATS in 2009 at home (5-1 SU) after defeating Houston and is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games in a half full stadium. In this series, the Jaguars own a 3-1 SU and ATS edge, having met most recently in 2006 in Miami. Fins now 5-0 SU in December last two years.

Keys to the Game-

Miami offered Jacksonville a new look from last week’s game film, they did not run the Wildcat one time. Ricky Williams is more conventional back, and to coach Tony Sparano’s credit, he’s willing to adjust to need or opponent as Chad Henne checked the pigskin 52 times last week. Being versatile and less predictable is important, but greater point production is needed on the road, where the Dolphins are scoring 17.5 points a game. (28.8 PPG at home) On defense, attack QB David Garrard, who has put the ball on the ground 12 times (eight lost) and seems less confident with collapsing pocket. Miami 8-1 ATS in road games after one or more wins over the last three seasons and has to win fourth quarter like they did against New England, having given up a franchise record 134 points in the last final 15 minutes already.

Like every other opposing team, Miami will try to take away Jaguars run game. Jacksonville must be persistent, since they are 7-1 (5-3 ATS) when they rush 26 or more times and 0-4 SU and ATS when they don’t. Jacksonville has to roll Garrard out, since he is sitting duck in the pocket and create three layers in passing game to give him choices. The Jags are deplorable 1-11 ATS as a favorite since last season and they better be prepared for multiple Miami attack or they will be caught off guard like they were against San Francisco two weeks ago.

3DW Line – Miami by 4
Bookmaker.com Line – Jacksonville -2.5, 43.5

Denver at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Indianapolis (12-0, 8-4 ATS) remains unbeaten and is already in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether or not to rest starters in its remaining games. The rest of the AFC is hoping that the Colts don’t, as Denver (8-4 ATS) is in the thick of a wildcard logjam at 8-4. For head coach Jim Caldwell’s team, the Broncos represent the foe on their remaining schedule with the best record, thus potentially the greatest chance for getting knocked off. For the Broncos, this is the first of two tough remaining road games and they are 4-2 SU & ATS away in ’09. These teams have become somewhat regular combatants in recent years, and Indy owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in the series the previous seven seasons. In the last encounters in Indianapolis, the Colts are 3-0 SU & ATS with an average victory margin a colossal 24.7 PPG.

Keys to the Game-

The Colts are going to bring pressure off the edges and Kyle Orton has to be wise to protect the pigskin and not put the ball up for grabs like last week when he was picked three times. Denver’s offensive tackles have to use outside leverage to push Indianapolis defensive ends outward and be ready for spin moves to the inside. The Broncos are 29-13 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game and have to take chances on offense and defense to stay close to San Diego in the AFC West. Denver has done fine work in not allowing the deep ball; however Peyton Manning can pick any defense apart strolling down the field. Defensive backs are going to have to take a few risks.

Indianapolis keeps winning and they are attracting sharp action again thanks to running the ball to balance the offense. Joseph Addai has been running with great authority and not coincidently, the Colts have covered last three contests. Look for Manning to be aggressive early and Indy to try and build quick, forcing Denver out of their game plan, making their ability to get after Orton more effective. The Colts are 20-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 14
DiamondSportsbook.com Line –Indianapolis -6.5, 44

Carolina at New England 1:00E FOX

The Patriots (6-6 ATS) have lost three of their last four games to slip to 7-5 on the season, just a game up on both Miami and New York for the AFC East title. New England’s remaining schedule is very manageable, starting with this contest vs. Carolina, so you have to still like their chances. Over the last 4+ seasons, the Pats are just 4-5 ATS hosting NFC foes. They are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this year, having covered four of those games while winning by 18.2 points per game. The Panthers are 5-7 and ATS after beating Tampa Bay, but relegated to the spoiler role the rest of the way, facing teams with a combined winning percentage of 77 percent over the final four weeks. Carolina is 0-3 SU & ATS vs. AFC East foes in this season after a 4-0 ATS non-conference mark a year ago.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina won last week but was outgained by 160 yards by the Bucs. It’s hard to fathom last Sunday’s ultra-conservative approach will work on the road, let alone in New England. The Patriots are ordinary against the pass and if backup Matt Moore is good enough to be on your roster as a professional quarterback, let him act like one and throw the ball down the field. The Panthers have to play the perfect game or be completely out of character. The former hasn’t happened much, so big daring, run Steve Smith out of the wildcat, throw on first down, send seven pass rushers at Tom Brady, anything to give yourself a more unique chance to win. The Cats are 10-1 ATS vs. opponent off consecutive losses, with the last being as a favorite.

Its evident things are out of whack in Billy’s world. Last quarter losses with leads, offense inefficient in the red zone and sending players home being late for meetings, at least where the media picks up on it. It’s been coming and New Orleans perfected it, rush three and double Randy Moss and Wes Welker, forcing Brady to find alternative. This is test for Moss to show how badly he wants to win, fighting to get open and not giving off visibly bad body language. Patriots have to stout in the middle to corral Panthers running game. Force Moore to beat you thru the air. With Carolina’s presumably limited offense, New England is 22-7 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards.

3DW Line – New England by 12.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -13, 43.5

San Diego at Dallas 4:15E CBS

Dallas continues its most difficult stretch of the season when it hosts the Super Chargers (Chris Berman reference). San Diego (6-6 ATS) has won seven straight games to reach 9-3 and has its sights set on a first round bye. Under Norv Turner, this has been the time of the year where the Chargers have played their best football, boasting an 8-2 ATS December mark. They are also 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season vs. good offensive teams gaining 5.65 or more yards per play in his tenure. Dallas (6-6 ATS) averages a lofty 6.7 YPP but finds itself in a tight NFC East race after losing to New York. Since dropping the new stadium opener, the Cowboys have won five straight at home, holding three teams to a TD or less while going 4-1 ATS. They are on a 3-7 ATS slide vs. the AFC, including 2-3 ATS at home.

Keys to the Game-

Dallas averages five yards per carry and San Diego is 21st versus the run. The Chargers are going to have to find a way to stop the terrific trio of Cowboys running backs. Lost in the winning streak is faulty tackling that has permitted foes to gain more yards than they should. Be dogmatic in wrapping up and keep a steady beat on Tony Romo to force miscues. Phillip Rivers offense has nabbed a 7-0 lead in six of the wins during this streak, which has allowed San Diego to set tempo. Do it to Dallas and 25-10 ATS road record vs. the NFC is within reach.

The Cowboys started December in New Jersey playing like they were waiting for something bad to happen and when it did; players in the foreground and background were seen shaking their heads. Championship teams don’t dwell, they move on to next play which is what the Cowboys have to do. San Diego is going to make great plays and force bad plays; it’s how Romo and the defense react to situations that will shape this NFC-AFC matchup. The Chargers have a full arsenal, controlling check-downs or predesigned passes to LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles forces Rivers to look elsewhere.

3DW Line – San Diego by 1
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3.5, 48.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we’ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don’t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can’t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at DiamondSportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota’s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year’s slate isn’t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year’s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It’s this week’s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it’s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don’t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It’s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

Seeking the Big Bounce Back

Hoy Cow, got kicked around but good yesterday with 0-4 record. We’ll look to bounce back immediately, starting with NFL system that is 86.6 percent. The Top Trend is once again perfect, just in the opposite direction. Sal is back and gives out his top play. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – I’ve been getting my can kicked in college football (below.500) and was talking to friend from Las Vegas whom I haven’t spoken to since early September. He’s up on all happenings on the betting scene in the town and he had a very interesting observation about college football. He said guys that are math-based handicappers are having a below average to bad years (that would be me), but streak players or guys that fly from the seat of their pants are doing quite well, because how they look at numbers and situations is different and things have gone their way.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON favorites off a bye week that lost by four or less points in their last outing as a favorite. Since 1990, this system is 13-2 ATS and is focused on the Giants this week.

Free Football Trend-2) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, losing by more than two points per game.

Free Football Pick -3) One of my favorite guys in Sal, who is on 14-5 roll in the NFL, including his sweet call on Miami on Thursday. Today he doesn’t care what the price is on the Chargers, take them.

3Daily Winners Guaranteed NFL Game of the Week.

The Platinum Sheet has an expert hitting 57 percent ATS picking ALL NFL games.

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Knowing Football Numbers Builds Bankrolls

Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when the sportsbooks where whining like adult babies about all the favorites winning and they were suffering heavy losses, well they were strangely quiet after this weekend and for good reason. The books cleaned up as NFL favorites were 3-10 against the spread. They reaped the benefits of Green Bay losing outright to Tampa Bay, helping them take in a great deal of teaser money. The San Diego Chargers come from behind victory was also a boom, as heavy betting by Giants fans figuring their team couldn’t lose four in a row, was flushed away. NFL favorites are 28-38-1 ATS the last five weeks.

This helps set up a very interesting Week 10 in the NFL, as teams off road underdog outright wins are 13-6-1 ATS. This week Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas and Arizona all qualify.

It used to be only sharps would bet football early and it would be relatively easy to track what top bettors were playing. It seems as least this year that has not been the case. In the NFL, games that move two or more points on sides by Tuesday night are 5-9 ATS in that direction and totals are even worse 6-12. That’s not to say sharp bettors don’t have off years. But last week was perfect example of patterns not following traditional methods of smart bettors. New Orleans shot from 8.5 to 11-point favorite in a division game against Atlanta and defensive-minded clubs Denver and Baltimore opened at 40 and rose to 42 quickly. Over the years, that is contrarian to their normal wagering patterns.

The Midwest might be facing declining population and the Big Ten clearly is not what it used to be, however these fans still support football and backing them with cash is still frequented. It was a dreadful day for alumni betting on their favorites and the books pocketed handsomely. In games between Big Ten Conference foes, the underdog was perfect 5-0 ATS, with four outright road upsets.

After coming up short most of the season, college home underdogs are showing some bite with 22-14 ATS record the last couple of weeks. Teams off three exact covers (no bye weeks) are 6-14-1 ATS the last month. Teams that force or commit five or more turnovers are 22-8-1 ATS the last month if they play the following week.

Though the numbers has dropped off from ridiculous proportions, totals moves of three or more points from opening until closing are still scintillating 106-56-2, 65.4 percent in the direction they’ve moved and have yet to have a losing week all season.

NFL Week 9 Sunday Key Info

New York may have the champions of baseball, but they also have football that was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender that’s surrendered 110 points in three consecutive losses. The Giants will attempt to end losing streak against San Diego before their bye week. It’s a conundrum for NFL sports bettors, with several large spreads in division games; do you take or give the points? Baltimore upset Denver last week and is now a road favorite at first place Cincinnati who’s rested off a bye. Hmmm.

Houston at Indianapolis 1:00E CBS

Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) has only beaten Indianapolis one time in franchise history, against 13 defeats (8-6 ATS). A second win would help close the gap between the teams in the AFC South race. That is an unlikely occurrence though, as oddsmakers have Indy as a heavy nine-point favorite, and the Colts average home win over the Texans has been 35-17. Houston does have the ability to keep it close though, since last year’s two meetings were decided by four and six points, and head coach Gary Kubiak’s team is 5-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, all as an underdog. Also, Indy (7-0, 5-2 ATS) is on a 1-4 spread slide at home vs. AFC South foes, while Houston has covered seven of its last nine against divisional games. The last eight meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total, averaging 56.1 points per game, with 48 being the fewest points scored.

Keys to the Game-

Houston finally had a big rushing day, running over Buffalo for 186 yards. The Texans are still only 28th in rushing, but it’s a start and Indianapolis is 23rd in the league in allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Establishing a running game keeps Peyton Manning on the bench. Who leads the NFL in passing yards, not Manning, its Matt Schaub. The former Virginia signal caller has lots of weapons, even without TE Owen Daniels (out for season). Schaub has to be judicious in making the right choices and not turning the ball over. Houston is 10-2 ATS in the second two road encounters and has improved immensely on defense going from 32nd after three games, to current 16th ranking. Stop the Colts running game and play coverage, since blitzing Manning only works if you get there.

Indianapolis will have to bring a pass rush, since they are up against a decided mismatch with backups at the corners vs. talented Texans’ pass catchers. While Manning threw for 349 yards last week, it was an “off” game for him as the Colts kicked four field goals in scoring only 18 points. Manning seldom has two such games and Houston only has 11 sacks (T-29th). Indy is 9-1 ATS off a non-cover when the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.

3DWLine – Indianapolis by 9
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -8.5, 50

Baltimore at Cincinnati 1:00E CBS

Baltimore and Cincinnati have an important rematch, of what was one of the most exciting games of 2009 to date. The Bengals (5-2, 4-3 ATS) won in Baltimore 17-14, as nine-point underdogs, on a last minute field goal and have since stayed atop the AFC North Division. This week’s venue switches to the Queen City, where favorites have won the last five head-to-head series meetings. Cincinnati owns a 3-2 SU & ATS edge in that span. The Bengals were on bye last week and are just 4-9 ATS in post-bye week games since 1996. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in division games this season. The Ravens (4-3, 5-2 ATS) won a big game against Denver to snap a three-game losing skid and climb back over .500. They are backed by a StatFox Super Situation showing road teams as 60-27 ATS since 2005 revenging an upset loss at home.

Keys to the Game-

Denver made a big miscue in not attacking Baltimore’s corners down the field, Cincinnati won’t let that pass. The Ravens secondary problems can be masked with pass rush, however Carson Palmer has too much talent on the perimeter, this means Baltimore has to keep damage to a minimum. If anything, stop the run and force Palmer into bad down and distance situations. Note to Baltimore- Stop playing such vanilla defense, keep blitzing like last week. Baltimore has to run effectively with its three-headed monster and control the game in that fashion and let Joe Flacco run play-action. Flacco is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt and the Birds are 19-3 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing YPA.

Palmer was burned by Ed Reed for Pick Six in last encounter; he must stay away from the All-Pro safety. One difference Cincinnati has this season that is a benefit against Baltimore is more physical style in the trenches. They can compete and welcome back RT Andre Smith, which should only helps RB Cedric Benson. Tight end Todd Heap again is not healthy, which places a premium on bottling WR Derrick Mason. Put Mason in a defensive jar (pitiful) and the Bengals are 7-0 ATS as underdogs.

3DW Line – Baltimore by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Baltimore -3, 44.5

Miami at New England 1:00E CBS

The Patriots (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are starting to strike fear into opponents and oddsmakers once again, and wins of 35-7 and 59-0 in a two-week span tend to do that. Reestablishing a dominant home field advantage also helps, as they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous home contests with an average win of 24.4 points per game. They have had two weeks to bask in the limelight of a satisfying win in London over the Bucs, but need to get back to business here against division rival Miami (3-4 ATS). New England has won and covered five straight games as a post-bye week favorite, but has lost both of its divisional battles against the spread this season. They are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Miami since 2000. The Dolphins are 3-4 after winning miraculously in New York last week. They are 4-0 SU & ATS on the divisional road under coach Tony Sparano.

Keys to the Game-

Did Miami really beat the Jets after having 52 yards passing and 52 yards rushing last week? That’s not going to work against New England unless they have three non-offensive touchdowns again. The Dolphins need running game to work right for the first quarter, as Chad Henne did not look nearly as comfortable in enemy territory. Attack the Patriots deep, be it with Ted Ginn Jr. or rookie Brian Hartline, to keep New England from crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Fins have young secondary and unless Joey Porter and Jason Taylor can create havoc, Miami falls to 4-16 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Tom Brady looks better with each passing game, as the affects of knee surgery dissipate. Having great sight lines and clean pocket opens up the entire Pats playbook for Brady, which suggests the offensive line has to do its job. New England was the first victim of Miami “wildcat” last season and contained it the second time around. With two weeks for Bill Belichick to breakdown any more nuances, New England might really put the clamps on. Belichick has a history of limiting quarterbacks with not much experience. The Patriots are 24-9 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more and cannot let the Miami special teams be a factor or the game tightens considerably.

3DW Line – New England by 10.5
Sportsbook.com Line – New England -10.5, 46.5

Carolina at New Orleans 4:05E FOX

New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS) wraps up a two-game divisional homestand when it hosts Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS). The Saints will look to turn the tide on what has been a run of dominance by the Panthers in this series in New Orleans. In fact, Carolina owns a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS record in its last eight trips to Bourbon Street. Expanding on that, road teams have gone 11-4 SU and are scintillating 13-1-1 ATS overall in the last 15 series engagements. That might be all that head coach John Fox’s team has going as a double-digit dog, since these teams have gone in different directions since their regular season ending meeting in January. Since then the Panthers have gone just 3-5 SU & ATS, while the Saints had yet to lose in 2009. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under Sean Payton.

Keys to the Game –

Carolina got back to playing Panthers football in Arizona, rushing for 270 yards. That formula is what works best for coach Fox’s club and they have to be encouraged Atlanta gouged New Orleans for 6.7 yards per carry (161yards) last Monday night. The Saints feast on mistakes, QB Jake Delhomme has to made decisions like a Rhodes Scholar and not give New Orleans opportunities. The Panthers are 15-6 ATS on the NFC South road since 2002 and have to create a profusion of defensive looks to at least make Drew Brees hesitate an instant and hope the pass rush arrives.

Jumping on Carolina is the best way to beat them. This has been Saints M.O. this year and it takes away the Panthers running game and makes Delhomme a thrower. Advantage Saints. Teams are blitzing Brees more and he has to be more cognizant in the pocket, especially to his back side. New Orleans offense is truly prolific averaging 39 points per game; however they are living in danger committing four turnovers each of the last two games. The Saints are 12-2 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, but just 3-10 against the number if it is 10 or more.

3DWLine – New Orleans by 17.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New Orleans -13, 51.5

San Diego at N. Y. Giants 4:15E CBS

Two of the preseason favorites in their respective conferences get together when the Giants host the Chargers (2-5 ATS). Neither team has lived up to advanced billing, as both are looking up in the standings in their own divisions, much less conferences. San Diego is 4-3 after beating Oakland, but faces a pair of NFC East powers then a trip to Denver. They are 1-3 SU and ATS on the road vs. NFC foes under coach Norv Turner. The Giants (5-3 SU&ATS) have lost three straight games for the first time since 2006, and are 0-5 ATS in their last five pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes. This starts a stretch of four home games in five contests and the G-Men are 22-9 ATS under Tom Coughlin vs. good offenses gaining 5.65 or more yards per play. New York is 4-1 SU and ATS hosting AFC opposition.

Keys to the Game-

Wasn’t it nice to see LaDainian Tomlinson score a couple of touchdowns last week? Even with that “outburst”, San Diego is still 31st in running the ball, averaging 74.7 YPG against teams that have allowed 114. San Diego has to have even a tolerable running game to help Phillip Rivers, who is third in the league at 8.1 yards per attempt, even without any help. The frequently jaw-jacking Rivers has to like his chances against secondary that has been torched for 262.3 yards the last three weeks. On defense, keep the pressure on Eli Manning to perpetuate his funk. The Chargers are emotional team and feed off it. The Bolts are 11-3 ATS after two or more SU wins and 23-10 ATS on the NFC road.

The Giants are ninth in sacks at 18, but nowhere the previous levels of the last couple of years. New DC Bill Sheridan doesn’t trust he faulty secondary and has been reluctant to blitz, however the results without sending extra attackers hasn’t been encouraging either. The San Diego offensive line has been spotty in protection, your call Bill, as big plays are killing the Giants. Manning has to return to earlier form to make offense click. Unless New York is going to run for 250 yards, they have to have Eli be on target. The Giants are 14-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game.

StatFox Power Line – Giants by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Giants -4.5, 48

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.