Tuesday's Top Tips

A very rare losing day leaves us at still highly profitable 128-70, 64.6 percent heading into Tuesday. Once again we have a perfect Top Trend, just in reverse. The Best System is in the AL and is sensational 42-7. Good Luck

What I letting you know today – With the aging bodies (and mouths) of Chad (85) Johnson and Terrell (call me T.O. please somebody) Owens slowing sinking into the sunset, it would have been nice to have more Larry Fitzgerald’s, but alas, our next NFL wide receiver whack-job is showing up.

Dez (the porter) Bryant refused to carry the pads of Cowboys veteran receiver Roy Williams. Obviously believing he is above such hazing that has gone on since there was a NFL or long before Bryant’s self importance emerged. Of course this has to do with respect and Bryant feels he is above such demeaning tasks, which comes after being suspended at Oklahoma State.

In life, we all hate to have to do certain things, but to be paid millions of dollars to play football and have to occasionally swallow pride for six weeks, yea I can get over.

I really wish the Cowboys players could go old-school and strip Bryant down to jock and tie him to goalpost all tarred and feathered. Now that would be SWEET!

The GUARANTEED Play has underdog that losses almost 70 percent of the time against a certain type of pitcher and place them in the role of spoiler, recently they’ve come up short 80 percent of the time. Need ONE GUARANTEED WINNER tonight, you can stop right here and pick it up.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Kansas City, being outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season, after allowing 15 runs or more. This system earns those that are into sports betting, cash 85.7 percent of the time with 42-7 record.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Oakland A’s are 0-14 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike of the LCC is up +19.7 real units the last week and has Minnesota on the money line tonight.

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What would make Kansas City a good bet?

It’s been awhile since the Royals were a good team, not great, just average. The highlight of the last several seasons was a strong 18-8 finish in September of 2008, which led to 75-87 record and hope for the following season. That lasted just over a month (18-11 on May 7, 2009), before Kansas City took their rightful place in the cellar of the AL Central for the sixth time in seven years.

Will the Royals EVER be good again like the George Brett days or is this franchise doomed to be Pittsburgh of the American League?

It’s hard to find much good to say about K.C. given their more recent history. The last manager to have a winning record was Hal McRae at 286-277 from 1991 to 1994 before he was jettisoned. In his place has been a parade of eight skippers, including the last flavor Ned Yost, who was run out of Milwaukee in the heat of a pennant race in 2008.

From a wagering point of view, Kansas City isn’t all that bad at 42-57, -1.9 units. Nonetheless, they are only one of four American League teams with a losing home record in 2010 at 20-26 (-5.9 units).

Decked out in my general manager’s attire, the Royals do offer positives. Kauffman Stadium is an older park that stood the test of time beautifully and the renovations have been trumpeted throughout baseball.

The casual and even fairly serious baseball fan might not know Kansas City has and continues to lead the American League in batting with .280 average. Why than do the Royals rank 10th in runs scored (4.3) per game, no boppers. K.C. is 12th in home runs in the AL with 66, which means despite having 117 more base hits than Toronto on the season, they have touched home 37 fewer times than the Blue Jays, who lead the Major’s in long balls with 152.

A big blow to the franchise has been the lack of development of Alex Gordon. Once thought to be a cornerstone, Gordon has never really hit, been injury-prone and his third base defense has led to him being made into an outfielder. At 26, Gordon is no longer a prospect and needs to blossom immediately to hold any value.

Jose Guillen, Billy Butler and David DeJesus are all above average players; however they are complementary types, not building blocks towards division contention.

The overly sensitive Kansas City front office (how dare anyone criticize us, it takes time to rebuild) likes its minor league studs like third base prospect Mike Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Wil Myers, yet none are really thought to be ready at least until 2012 for full-time duty.

Personally, I believe it would be a huge mistake to trade Zack Grienke (6-10, 4.01 ERA) since every team, no matter how bad they might be, has to have a pitcher the rest of the players trust in which they truly believe they have a significant chance to win every five days. The rest of the of the starting staff looks very much like a collection of No. 4 or No. 5, which makes winning at best a 50-50 bet , particularly with second-rate relievers beyond closer Joakim Soria (0-2, 2.25, 27 saves).

Last night Kansas City was beaten into submission, losing 19-1 to Minnesota and the task for this evening doesn’t get a whole lot easier facing Carl Pavano (12-6, 3.26 ERA). The right-hander is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts and the former fragile Yankee hurler has four complete games in last seven outings (including previous two). Pavano has been in the AL Central the last two years and he is 22-10 against division opponents over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Royals are +140 underdogs at online sportsbooks and ridiculously bad 48-108 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. K.C. has lost eight of last 10 as dogs and is 1-7 versus right-hand pitchers. Bruce Chen (5-4, 4.38) tries to avoid a third straight loss taking the ball for his club, but is 1-6 as a Game 2 starter.

Kansas City might have great eating barbeque joints and the future of the Royals might be bright, yet the present is dimmer than a two year old energy saving light bulb.

Kansas City favored to win? You Bet

In studying the Wednesday baseball board, one pitching matchup stands out more than the rest this evening, at least by reputation if not 2010 results. Jake Peavy (7-5, 4.71 ERA) of the White Sox heads to the Kauffman Stadium mound to take on last year’s Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke (3-8, 3.72). Neither pitcher has enjoyed the kind of success they would have expected to this point of the season, however several signs point to each having a big second half.

Peavy is also a Cy Young winner, having earned that honor in 2007 at San Diego. In his first full season with Chicago in the American League, Peavy’s had a difficult adjustment after pitching in Death Valley (Petco Park) and moving to U.S. Cellular Field. The right-hander really struggled to start the year with 5.90 ERA in his first dozen starts (4-5), but has caught fire recently. In his last three outings (coincidently against National League teams), Peavy has been domineering with 0.78 ERA, permitting 12 hits in 23 innings.

Greinke also has found trouble this season. The 26-year old righty started the year throwing well enough to win, but the bullpen was blowing leads or tied games and Grenike didn’t earn his first win until May 13, and started to press from that point forward. As he admittedly tried to throw a perfect pitch on each toss, he made more mistakes, not less and strikeouts went down and base hits allowed went up.

After being rocked for nine hits and six runs in only five innings in a 7-3 loss at Minnesota, a 1-8 Greinke reevaluated his situation. With Kansas City again going nowhere in the standings with 33-45 record, Greinke decided to relax and just pitch to his ability and not create unreal expectations for him or the team. In his last three trips to the rubber, he has 2.63 ERA, striking out 23 while walking just two during that stretch.

“He’s put together three pretty good starts here in a row,” manager Ned Yost said after Greinke gave up two runs and seven hits over eight innings in recent 4-2 win over St. Louis. “He’s gaining velocity on his fastball. His command’s been a lot better. He’s really pitching terrific.”

Oddsmakers have the Royals favored for the just the 14th time this season (5-8, -5.5 units) at -115 over Chicago and not because K.C. is 4-12 with Grienke as starter.

In theory, Kansas City should be a better club. They are second in the American League in hitting with a .282 team batting average. Where the Royals falter is from a power outage, Kansas City needs too many base knocks to score, being 12th in home runs in the AL (53), which leads to pedestrian mark of ninth in runs scored in.

Nonetheless, we find a MLB system that overlooks the Royals’ shortcomings and makes them a likeable favorite.

Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, a hot hitting team, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent with a tough starting pitcher, whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts.

This baseball situation has come in 77.5 percent of the time the past five years at 62-18. This MLB system has been dynamic 6-0 this year and average run differential is 2.5 per contest. Yes it is true the Pale Hose have been playing outstanding baseball (12-2), but they are 6-20 in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five outings. Plus, the Royals offense doesn’t stay sour for long with 9-3 mark after scoring three runs or less in consecutive contests this season.

Take a good hard look at K.C; it might be a masterpiece, just like the barbeque sauce.

Late Tuesday Plays

With Sunday’s winning record, we moved to 89-50 in plays here at 3Daily Winners. Tonight we have a Best System at 82.4 percent. Our Top Trend is nearly perfect and Ron of the LCC is hotter than a mouthful of jalapeño peppers and has his Free Play. We are in 7th place the last 10 days in units won in MLB at the Cappers Monitor. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – Just how bad the Cubs stink that they lose at home to Pittsburgh who almost never wins on the road.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Braves, averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. This winning system is 98-21 the previous 13 seasons.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cincinnati is 13-1 with a hot bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games this season, winning by 2.4 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron of the LLC continues to sizzle with on 18-5 run and both White Sox to cover against Kansas City.

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Sunday's Material

Those pesky Padres keep coming up with ways to win, which caused me a losing day and fell to 87-49. This Sunday we’ll look to bring it back around starting with a Top Trend from the I-70 series. Ron goes after another winner in the Lone Star state and one home favorite is in an 84.8 percent system. Good Luck

What I saw and heard yesterday – I’m looking a video from yesterday in MLB, if I can’t find, I’ll just relate the story later today.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites like Oakland with a money line of -175 to -250, averaging 0.9 or less home runs game on the season, after a win by four runs or more. In the past five years this system is 56-10, 84.8 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Kansas City is 3-15 with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Ron was 2-1 yesterday giving him 11-4 record of late and is riding the Rangers to take the Texas tussle.

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Baseball Pitching Disasters – circa 2010

You know when the news comes on TV or you are on checking your favorite news websites and it has videos of train wrecks, tornadoes, a tiger gnawing on a human being or some other calamity and you just have to watch no matter how graphic or shocking it is? For those that are sports betting baseball participants, the same is also true.

Every year we get dialed in to the best pitchers in baseball thru the media and are own wagering habits. It’s great to have MLB.tv and turn on Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and even Stephen Strasburg, as they mow down one batter after another.

While this is good entertainment, it doesn’t necessarily help our wagering accounts unless you prefer relatively high risk, low reward options. Yes it is fantastic being all over Jimenez at 13-1 (up +12 units at most locations), however he’s been a freak this far into the season.
But what about the car wrecks, the pitchers that give away money like Pac Man Jones, whether it is thru their own incompetence or their jock gives them more support than their teammates. Here are noteworthy pitchers this season that are losing at alarming rates and have growing deficits just like the United States.

Zack Greinke – Kansas City

Many considered Greinke’s Cy Young season nothing short of remarkable a year ago. It’s very mentally difficult to pitch extremely well on a bad team and block out all the distractions that go along with this. Greinke’s had his own demons in the past, but he had appeared to put that all behind him and his tremendous ability would be good enough to overcome everything.

That has not been the case in 2010. Greinke is 2-8 with 3.94 ERA and could certainly have a better record on a better club. In four of his five no-decisions, he permitted five total earned runs, more than good enough to pick up a couple wins at least. He’s also been on the wrong side of a pair of 1-0 contests Kansas City has been involved in.

Maybe it’s not fair to compare a pitcher to the best year of his career, but facts are facts. Location has been an issue for the Royals right-hander. Last year he had 242 strikeouts, this year as he nears the midpoint of the season, Greinke’s at 83 punchouts. For the entire 2009 campaign, Greinke was taken over the fence 13 times, this season he’s had the head-jerker 11 times in 15 starts. Last year he allowed 0.85 hits per inning, this season 1.01 for every three outs.

“It's not perfect. It's not awful," Greinke said about this year. "Just not finishing off innings. ... Just not making perfect pitches when you need to and getting beat." With Kansas City 3-12 and sports bettors out a baseball worst -11.2 units, the guess is they would chime in and say it is really awful.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

It’s a good thing baseball is a team game or Dempster and his agent might think of suing the Cubs for lack of support. Dempster’s 5-6 record isn’t terrible and his and his 3.56 ERA is quite good, however baseball bettors have dropped -9.2 units when he’s pitched. In 10 of Dempster’s 15 starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning and allowed three runs or less, yet the Cubs are a mere 4-6. Opponents are only hitting .221 against him, but his chief flaw is missing his location at the wrong time, being tagged for 14 home runs, which is the same figure he permitted for the 2008 season when he won 17 games.

Brian Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles

This is like a combined entry in horse racing by a single owner. These are two mediocre pitchers on an odious baseball team. This less than dynamic duo is 5-17 and the O’s are 6 -24 when they take the mound. Guthrie isn’t really pitching any worse than he has in his career with 4.28 ERA compared to 4.27 since making his first major league roster in 2004. Nonetheless, he’s not been able to step up and really help his team and left-handed hitters are batting .50 points higher (.275) than right-hand hitters.

Right now the best aspect of Brian Matusz is the fact he’s 23 years old and throws from the left side. Matusz is mostly inconsistent, one good outing is followed by getting ripped the next and opposing clubs are batting a healthy .281 against him (conversely Baltimore has two hitters batting higher than .281) and surprising he’s been hit hardest by those he should have the most success against. Lefty hitters are a robust .311 against the Colorado native and in day games, his ERA jumps to 6.32.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds

There are 14 pitchers this season that are -5.2 units or worse than Harang of the Reds, but the 6’7 right-hander is carving out a niche of his own. In 2007, Harang was 16-6 and Cincinnati was 24-10, making him the best bet in baseball at +13.1 units. Since then, Harang has been like a port-a-john, he gives off an odor. In the past three seasons, Harang is 17-38 and cost Reds backers 16.9 units. Manager Dusty Baker prefers veteran players to youngsters and he sends Harang out there in his regular turn as the No. 3 starter despite information to the contrary.

In the past three years, batters are striping Harang for .289 BA and in this timeframe he’s been taken yard 71 times or once every six innings pitched. Baker, being old school, looks at the strikeouts to walk ratio and sees better than 3-1, yet this stuff has become slightly better than batting practice, permitting 493 hits in 433 2/3 innings. The Reds are 5-10 in his 15 outings this year and he taxes the bullpen more often than not. Let’s be honest, even though Harang is relatively young at 32, unless he finds a way to start missing more bats, he will be out of the league sooner than later.

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3DW Baseball Betting Beat

The Houston Astros are not the worst team in baseball or the poorest wager, however do not worry, they have time to still get there. Houston is 14-26, -7.6 units, both good (and bad enough) to rank in the bottom six of Major League baseball.

The Astros could likely be the best play against team at the moment, but somehow they swept the Cardinals near The Arch in St. Louis starting back on May 11 and picked up +6.35 units.

Why is Houston so bad? This is a franchise full of neglect with owner Drayton McLane calling the shots. McLane would not have his millions if he ran his other businesses in the same manner as his baseball franchise.

McLane has always liked to overpay for his own stars, with B to C level talent he thought would help fill seats and maybe help his team win. Free agents like Carlos Lee, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (he of the part-time duty in his days in southeast Texas) all received big contracts, but never produced the type of numbers over the expanse of their deals.

Lance Berkman might be 34, but his deterioration has been in full view for a couple of years for those betting baseball.

The numbers tell the story about the ‘Stros. In the National League they are last in runs scored (3.0), batting average (.231), doubles (53), home runs (21), total bases (436) and on-base percentage (.277).

To understand their ineptitude, compare those numbers to league averages, please understand not the best, just what the average NL team profile looks like. (Thru May 19)

Runs scored (4.5)
Batting average (.257)
Doubles (77)
Home runs (37)
Total bases (552)
On-base percentage (.330)

These are mind-boggling numbers for sports betting aficionados. At the aforementioned date with these number compiled, Houston did not have above average player at ONE field position (excluding pitcher) when it came to adding up these shown figures in the senior circuit, not one.

The Astros play the old-school way like a Kirby Puckett, who went to the dish hacking. One problem they don’t have a player of his talent on the roster and rank 15th in pitches taken and dead last in walks with 77. (The Giants are 15th at 121 base on balls by comparison, a 36.4 percent differential)

About the only thing Houston batters don’t do a lot of is strikeout (lowest in the NL), but they have so little patience at the plate, they don’t give opposing pitchers a chance to send them back to the bench and instead flail away at whatever is pitched.

With the poorest farm system in the big leagues according to Baseball America, one top notch pitcher in Roy Oswalt and two average to slightly above hurlers in Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, prospects are not good this season will improve. Take away a 9-6 record at present against NL Central partners and the 2010 Astros are 5-20 (-15.5) against the record of the league.

The best way to sum up Houston is compare them to baseball’s best team, Tampa Bay, in one category. The Rays are 16-3 in games determined by four or more runs and the Astros are 3-13. You would think Rachel Phelps was running the team. (The Cleveland Indians owner in the movie - Major League)

I wouldn’t read too much into the Pittsburgh Pirates hovering just below .500 thus far in 2010. The Bucs have been good underdog wager at 17-21, +7.8 units; however their run differential is -100. That number is higher than last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore combined (-96) and even if Pittsburgh was like a bank and could write off it’s bad debt, they would still be the worst in baseball tossing away 20-0 meltdown to Milwaukee.

I just love the so-called experts who have fallen in love with saying starting pitching doesn’t mean what it used to. They site pitch counts, the lack of complete games and greater dependence on bullpens.

While those points are mildly valid, their reference point is like that of politician selectively choosing quasi-numbers and facts to make a point.

The Los Angeles Dodgers started the year with one of the best offenses in the National League, yet on the morning of May 9 were 13-17 and being written off for their lack of pitching.

Joe Torre’s starting pitchers finally found a groove and in harmony with those in the bullpen, put together a streak in which they conceded 2.0 runs per game and the Dodgers won nine in a row, while a bit over average in runs scored at 5.5 compared to 5.2 for the season.

What changed was the starters began throwing strikes, which led to more innings of success with lower pitch counts. This helped setup the pen with pitchers in their normal roles of coming in the game in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings, which is their comfort zone and once success was achieved, the confidence swelled among the entire staff.

The days of complete games and high pitch counts are gone; nevertheless if the starting pitcher can take a tie game or lead into the final three innings, most baseball bettors are positioned to earn a victory.

Will Zack Greinke finally win?

If it wasn’t so absurd it might be laughable for current Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (0-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.050 WHIP). Grienke is 11th in the American League in ERA and seventh in WHIP, yet he has not registered a victory this season pitching for the Kansas City Royals.

At this time a year ago he had six wins and all the talented right-hander can say is “I’m just trying to keep us in ball games. We’re just getting beat right now,” Greinke stated.

The Royals lack of success falls into one broad pool. The Royals ace has to be perfect every time because his offense is objectionable. In his seven starts Kansas City hitters have scored a grand total of 17 runs, 2.4 per outing. K.C. is 1-6 in Greinke’s outings and he’s placed them in position to win two other games, but the bullpen blew those opportunities.

The Royals will look to avoid being swept by Cleveland at home. The Indians are on a three-game winning streak and have three consecutive double digit hit games in a row for the first time this season. This is certainly a rarity for club with a .248 team batting average.

David Huff (1-4, 4.60, 1.500) will toe the rubber for the Tribe, looking to avoid a fourth straight loss. Huff has really struggled of late with 7.16 ERA in three previous trips to the mound, allowing 34 hits + walks combined in 16.1 innings. Of the 25 base hits conceded, six were home runs which takes his total to seven dingers in only five starts.

Sportsbooks have the Indians as +170 money line underdogs and they fall into a negative super system.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20), with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs a start.

Kansas City has lost seven in a row and won’t run into many better opportunities than this for a much needed victory. Since 1997, this system is 87-24, 78.4 percent with the favorite winning by two runs on average. Greinke is 5-7 lifetime against Cleveland but is 3-0, with 2.52 ERA in his last six starts against the Indians.

If Greinke pitches his usual game and Huff continues to be ineffective, every reason to believe the Tribe falls to 13-37 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters.

Happy Mother's Day to All

Picked up three more winners on Saturday taking us to 33-15, yippy-skippy. Let’s begin with Top Trend in totals area that is unbeaten. Kendall is blazing coming into Mother’s Day and has NL West Free selection. The Best System is 83.3 percent in the land of 10,000 or more lakes. Good Luck

What I thought today- It’s hard to go wrong listening to your mom.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the O’s, an AL team batting .260 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up less than home run every two starts. Since 2006 this baseball system is 40-8, 83.3 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Royals Luke Hochevar is 11-0 OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons with average score 13.1 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Kendall’s on a 16-4 roll and has the Rockies to continue winning despite being injury plagued.

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Monday Plays are up

Took it on the chin again yesterday (still 23-11) as Boston had several failed attempts to score but was swept by Baltimore of all teams. The Top Trend is a totals play in the AL Central. The Free play is in the AL West and the Best System is a division matchup and is unqualified (less than 80 percent) play with a very good record. Good Luck

What I thinking today- I’m starting to remember why betting the Stanley Cup playoffs are so hard.

I’d rather lose a MLB game in the bottom of the 9th than lose in extra innings. (1-5 so far this year) Having chances to win and not coming thru.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Under on road teams like the Tigers when the total is 8.5 to 10, who average 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game against a below average AL starter (ERA= 5.70 to 6.20), with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities. In the last 13 years this system is 38-11.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 10-2 OVER the against division opponents this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Consensus is on Oakland to top Texas 6-0.

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Baseball Series Wagering - Twins at Royals

The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.

Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.

These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.

Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)

Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.

“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.

Game 1 Edge: Minnesota

The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.

"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”

The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.

The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.

Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.

In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.

Game 3 Edge: Minnesota

For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com.

“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”

3Daily Winners Pick: Minnesota

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125

Betting Baseball in April – Punch Pedal or Tread Lightly?

This is a great question that applies to any sport that has wagering options on a daily basis. What separates baseball from the rest is teams play essentially every single day, not three or four times a week like in the NBA or NHL and most college basketball teams are hitting the court twice a week at best unless they are in a preseason tournament in a far away destination.

The month of April in the Major Leagues is very much like a golf tournament. In golf, not very often does the first round leader end up winning the tour event after four days. This same logic is also true in baseball with many pretenders that are not contenders later in the season.

Need proof read on:

April 30, 2009 standings –Division leaders
Boston –Kansas City – Seattle- Florida- St. Louis – L.A. Dodgers

Two teams won their divisions, three made the playoffs.

April 30, 2008 standings –Division leaders
Boston –White Sox- L.A. Angels-Florida-Cubs- Arizona

Three teams won their divisions, four made the playoffs.

April 30, 2007 standings –Division leaders
Boston-Cleveland- L.A. Angels-Atlanta- Milwaukee-Arizona

All the American League teams won their divisions as did the Diamondbacks.

April 30, 2006 standings –Division leaders
Yankees-White Sox-Texas-Mets- Cincinnati- Colorado

Two teams won their division and no other clubs made the postseason.

So what is the best way to bet baseball to start the season, here are the pros and cons for each method.

Running hard – Preparation is really the key. If a sports bettor has done his homework, no reason not to jump into the deep end. Knowing what off-season moves teams have made to improve weaknesses in the lineup or the starting pitching should allow any sage baseball bettor to get off to fast start.

Often team that closed the previous season well is an early precursor as to what they might do early in a new season. The Kansas City Royals were 20 games below .500 on Sept. 1 2008 and finished the year 18-8. They carried this momentum into the next season by being in first place in the Central Division and though they would finish 65-97, they picked up +2.10 units the first month of the year.

Slow and easy-Does preparation help you when the Los Angeles Dodgers start the season with suspect pitching staff and they run out to 15-8 record? What about the defending American League champion Tampa Bay, the best young team in baseball right, occupying the AL East basement at the end of April last season at 9-14!

Much like the standings, many things will change from May 1 to August 31 giving every baseball bettor time to get a feel and ease into the season. A formidable pitching staff or lineup gets off to slow start and let’s be honest, preconceived notions are often hard to let go of. Believing in a team that SHOULD be good and is underachieving will drain a wagering account faster than printer ink cartridge.

Running hard – Great logic if you are afraid of your own shadow. The argument of letting things settle in holds no water. If a real sports bettor is interested in winning, you begin at the start. Sure a slow start is possible, but like the previous point, you have four months before football season to make it up. Ever heard of hot streak? And what happens if you catch fire from the start and go up 15 to 20 units, you could be strictly average the rest of the season and still take home the money you made in April.

Slow and easy- Not exactly sound reasoning for those that understand baseball is truly a betting marathon. The psychology of most sports bettors is to press once behind. This can lead to irresponsible wagers, taking chances when not necessary, which could lead to further depletion of bankroll or having to cough up more money in say May or June with more than half the season to go, which erodes confidence.

That other aspect of burning money early is limited bankroll. Say you start with $1,000.00 and you hit bad stretch early, using up half of your dough. You still want to bet all season, so instead you start making smaller bets. All of the sudden you begin winning, yet are gun-shy and keep wagering lesser amounts, grinding away. You finally get your record back to .500, yet are down say $150 because of cautious approach. Do you return to original betting amounts from the first month of season or keep going with what has been working?

A more conservative method takes the guess work out when you are more in tune with all 30 teams.

Running hard –Negative thinking produces negative results. Did Bill Gates, Steven Jobs or Warren Buffet make their billions by not taking a chance or risk on opportunity?
If you don’t know what you are doing you deserve to lose. The old school way of betting baseball was to find underdogs that can win and playing favorites no larger than -150 on the money line. That’s fine if you want to use coupons to go out to eat, but the preference here is steak and lobster whenever the mood strikes.

The idea is to uncover winners wherever they are. Above -170 favorites that lose means you have to hit two winners basically to squeak out a profit; however you can still fire on those in the first month if you follow simple rules. Have the starting pitcher edge, the bullpen is in order, with pre-assigned roles from the beginning of the year (not assembling pen on the run) and lineup of hitters that hit home runs with quality on-base percentage.

Nobody likes to lose, thus playing underdogs continually might show profits from time to time, but who likes to win less than 50 percent of the time? If you are wagering nickels and dimes, that makes sense because the dollars add up quicker.

And don’t forget those cold-weather totals, lots of cash to be made on Under’s if you know upcoming weather reports in advance of released numbers.

Slow and easy- Betting favorites over -150 is foolish in April. In today’s game, 80 percent of teams only believe they have their bullpens set from the middle innings to closer. If you watch most teams, they are searching to find right combinations and might need a month or more to figure out a plan of attack. Already this season a number of teams (like Kansas City) have carried leads into the eighth inning and lost.

Knowing a team has a bad bullpen can allow you to take more chances later in the year on underdogs and favorites.

This same variable applies to totals. A 3-2 game with a listed total of 8.5 can blow up in the later innings when one pen has too many weak pitchers to contain opposition, sending the number well above the total.

The best method to bet baseball is the one the works best for you. Make certain you have all the tools necessary (like the FoxSheets) at your disposal that provides you the best chance to profit.

Tuesday's Tops

Thought I’d change it up a touch today, seeing we’re coming so late. There was no Best System, so instead we will go with the best one I could find at almost 80 percent. Doing a repeat of Monday’s Top Trend winner, while also giving you something else to consider. After a dismal NBA campaign, I’m a hotter topic than Ann Coulter at Ottawa University and giving out my favorite NBA selection. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- The Kansas City Royals look they will struggle again, based on what I’ve seen talent-wise in the exhibition season.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On road underdogs of 10 or more points like floundering Philly, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system dials up nicely at 29-8 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Princeton is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 129.5 or less this season. However, St. Louis is 9-0 ATS after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) I’m 14-1-1 ATS in last 16 NBA (it’s monitored) plays and I’m taking Utah to win and cover in the fourth quarter.

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Labor Day Offerings

The Washington Nationals of all teams came from behind in the bottom of the ninth, giving us official 1-1 record for the day. On Labor Day we have Best College Football System of the weekend at 86.2 percent. The Top Trend is a doozy and the Free Pick has arrived with with material. Good Luck

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Free Football System-1) PLAY ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses vs team that had a winning record last season. This college football system is 25-4, 86.2 percent and has 1-0 record this weekend.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.3 runs per game.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC has 7-0 in favor of the Texas Rangers tonight. Bonus- Rutgers has 75 percent of the LCC's action and Miami just over 63 percent.

Paul Buck is having 6-2 weekend in college football and has Big East Winner today. 3Daily Winners was 2-1 on Saturday and prefers one team in ACC matchup tonight on ESPN in our Guaranteed Picks.

Suitable for Framing Friday (I hope)

Not exactly inspiring 1-1 Thursday, but at least didn’t have losing day. The Top Trend will yield two plays from the same game, but will only count as one. The Best System is about as straightforward as they come and 62-12. Jason looks for another winner as a high volume player with Free Pick. Good Luck

What I’m learning – I’ve received a couple of emails from people regarding buying picks from the Google ads. As many of you might know, I have no control of what Goggle places on this blog other than to create matches. I’ve received one email today and saw one on a forum Killer Sports (From Google ads) is doing something fishy. When I learn more details will pass along, but like everything in life, Buyer Beware.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Pittsburgh with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing 10 runs or more. This system is an 83.7 percent winner at 62-12 since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) I’m a little embarrassed to use this as trend because of the money line, thus I’ll give you both sides of it. Homer Bailey and Cincinnati are 0-10 when playing against a team with a winning record and Tim “Cy” Lincecum and the Giants are 15-1 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. (There I fell better)

Free Baseball Selection -3) Jason had the correct side yesterday raising his record to 23-9 in August and his best bet is Kansas City to oust Oakland.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

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No Slack Sunday Info

Keep those 2-1 days comin’! Our goal today is that or more and Sal has been a huge part of recent success and has another Free Play. The Top Trend examines how the Royals play in a particular situation and the Best System is a virgin this season; however is the highest of quality at 91.8 percent. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday –Including tonight, the Detroit Tigers have seven more games left with the Chicago White Sox. The Tigers lead the season series 7-4 and if they can finish with a winning record over the Pale Hose, it will be just the second time in 18 years they will have won a season series against Chicago, remarkable.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites like the Red Sox with a money line of -175 to 250, who are slightly below average AL hitting team at .265 or less, against a passable starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), in the second half of season. This is the first time this system has appeared this year and why it is so potent is because if the team is this large a favorite, given the situation as explained, they should win. Since 1997, 45-4, 91.8 percent. Gulp!

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 1-11 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season, losing by 3.2 runs per contest.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s was 3-1 again on Saturday making him 28-7, 75 percent and he believes Houston is just too hot for the Mets.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor – If you wonder if this publication is worth the money, read this review. http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/ncaafootballbetting/fr/statfox09.htm

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Kick Start your Monday

Hit two of three on Sunday, taking our record to 152-98-3, 60.8 percent, since the first part of April. The Top Trend is again a reverse perfect play, taking place in the Midwest. Sal is hotter than Phoenix, AZ steering wheel that sits outside during the day uncovered and has Free Play. The Best System is found in run line action, with two plays that are 86 percent winners. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Joel Pineiro helped his own cause with a two-run double in the Cardinals 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Pineiro was the second pitcher in the last three seasons to win a game in which he drove in all of his team's runs, joining Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo, who homered in a 1-0 victory over the Pirates earlier this season (April 29). Pineiro was the first St. Louis pitcher to turn the trick since Ray Sadecki in a 3-1 win over the Phillies in the first game of a twinbill on August 6, 1961. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135), after shutting out a division rival, starting an over-rested pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. I’ll be honest, I’m not a huge run line fan, however this system is 37-6, 86 percent, including 3-0 this season. This would mean to play against Philadelphia and the L.A. Angels on the run line.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Kansas City Royals are 0-12 after two straight games with one or less extra base hits over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal was 4-1 yesterday taking him to 11-2 run-out and he is backing Colorado to crush Arizona near the Rocky Mountains.

New StatFox Football Annual on Sale – A must for Every Sports Bettor

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MLB Series Wagering- Tampa Bay at Kansas City

The Tampa Bay Rays start the second half of the season believing they can play much better baseball then they did most of the first half of the year. The Rays (48-41, -0.7 units) trail the New York Yankees by four losses in the wild card chase and Boston by seven for the AL East division lead. In some ways, Tampa Bay feels fortunate they are still within reach of the postseason after floundering at or below .500 for the first two months of the season. "We didn't play nearly our best baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We did at times, but a little bit too streaky."

One area that needs immediate shoring up is Tampa’s play on the road. They Rays are 18-26 (-7.8) and the skipper thinks his team is capable of turning this around. “We just have to get out there in the second half. We have to take advantage and not make the same kinds of mistakes that put us in a bind in the first half. We're capable of that. We're capable of playing a higher level of baseball on a more consistent basis." Maddon said.

Kansas City (37-51, -13.9 units) starts the second half having lost five of six and in search of winning formula from last September that fueled this season’s optimism. The Royals first order of business is finding ways to score more runs. Kansas City ranks 28th in runs scored at 3.9 per game and hopes Alex Gordon can provide offensive punch coming off of hip surgery.

After bouncing back and forth, Royals manager Trey Hillman has decided on Brian Bannister (6-7, 3.66) as his opening game starter. Bannister is off arguably the best game of his career, throwing seven shutout innings at Boston before tiring slightly in allowing one run on three hits in over 7 2/3 in 3-1 triumph. Coming into the series, Kansas City had won only three of last dozen contests at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 4-1 in Bannister’s home starts against winning teams, but 7-20 in night games over the last two seasons when he’s been called upon (Royals Record). The Royals are +130 money line home underdog at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total Un8.5. The Royals are 18-6 UNDER in the second half of the season.

Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields (6-6, 3.42), who is 2-4 on the road, with the Rays winners only twice in his eight starts as visitor. The Rays are off a pair of losses, but have enjoyed great success on Friday’s with 29-11 mark. Shields’ has liked the look of Royals uniform and is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City. He’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against K.C. (32) in the 36 innings he’s worked, while allowing just three free passes. The Rays are 14-3 UNDER July in road games since last year.

Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay

Because of the shifting of Royals rotation, ace Zack Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA) only pitched one inning in the All-Star game, will start Game 2. Greinke hasn’t been quite as effective as he was early in the season, when he was un-hittable and has lost his last two starts, though the 3-1 loss the last time out was in part due to shabby K.C. defense. Historically, the Royals and Greinke don’t do as well if he pitches the middle game of series, showing a dismal 12-30 record.

Only staunch baseball bettors might know this, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in baseball at 5.3 runs per game. Besides pounding out 9.3 hits per game on average, the former Devil Rays have newfound patience as the dish, walking 4.1 times per game, which is third best in baseball, just behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The former masthead of the Rays staff, Scott Kazmir (4-5, 7.11) will take the ball for middle encounter. Since being injured, the lefthander has not been effective, but at least pain-free. Having last won on May 9, Kazmir hopes pitching in a Game 2 situation will turn luck around since he and his teammates are 22-5 in that spot.

Game 2 Edge: Kansas City

The series finale will be afternoon affair. The Rays are 16-13 playing in the light of day, with Kansas City unsightly 12-19. Matt Garza (6-7, 3.73) is one of the American League’s biggest enigmas. Only a handful of hurlers have his stuff, yet he finds a way to have one bad inning and has losing record. He’s 0-4 with 4.02 ERA against K.C. The Royals will send Luke Hochevar (5-3, 5.34) to toe the slap. Since returning in early June for stint in minors, Hochevar has pitched up to his capabilities, with 5-1 record and 3.97 ERA. Besides the quality record, he’s been innings-eater with six of last seven starts lasting as least six innings.

Game 3 Edge: Kansas City

Thought this was a good week to change it up and go with a few teams that don’t receive much of the acclaim. The matchup is very close, but Tampa Bay has poor road record and two of its starters in this series are fumbling along, not pitching well. Similar to a thin slice of pastrami, I’ll support the Royals by the slimmest of margins.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -125, Kansas City -105

3DW Pick: Kansas City

Playing the Numbers Game

Numbers are vital to every sports bettor and handicapper; they are the lifeblood of formulating strong fundamentals. There are various ways to use numbers and interpret information, those with the keen eye of dissecting figures and understanding true meanings, are usually those who take the larger portions of wagering pie. Here are numbers to consider current running sports.

NBA

With the Conference Finals in action, since 2002 between #1 & #3 seeds, the road teams have fared well against the spread, going 14-13 SU & 20-6-1 ATS.

Road teams have gone just 18-23 SU; however are 27-12-2 ATS in Games 1 & 2 of the Conference Finals over the last 10 years and since 1999, the road teams hold the ATS edge in EVERY Game Series number of the Conference Finals.

Since 1997, home favorites of six-points or more are a scintillating 41-7 SU, but just 21-26-1 ATS.

At this time, Orlando looks they will be the only home dog and if so, home underdogs are 9-8 SU & 9-7-1 ATS since '97 in the Conference Finals. The UNDER is 12-5 in those games. This postseason, road favorites are 11-2 UNDER and 7-0 UNDER in the East.

Overall, in the last three years of Conference Finals action, the UNDER has been the total of choice, going 24-11.

MLB

Philadelphia has yet to hit its stride as World Series champs; however they look very potent on the road with 13-4 record picking up +9.7 units. Contrast with San Diego who is 5-16 (-9) as visitors, being outscored by 2.2 runs per game. If you remember, the Padres started 4-1 on the road and they are 1-15 since.

Coming into the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitching was supposed to be a real question. Well thanks to favorable schedule, tremendous hitting and better than expected results from starters L.A. has the best record in the National League. One negative that stands out like Manny Ramirez drug test is bullpen. In 24 save situations, the Dodgers relievers have already blown 11 save opportunities and been saved by bats scoring runs.

The Seattle Mariners are slowly fading back to obscurity after fast start in April, nonetheless are enjoying facing that left-handed pitching with 8-3 record.

Keep a close eye on Colorado Rockies when they are in hitting slump, since they are 0-13 in road games after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span over the last two seasons.

Trusting Washington to do about anything is bad these days, be it the Senate, House or the Nationals. The Nats are third, that’s right third in runs scored in the National League at 5.1 per game. However, the pitching staff and bullpen in particular smells worse than another scandal on Capital Hill. Washington’s bullpen ERA is 6.64 and they have blown 10 of 16 save opportunities and are 1-14 for the season. The Nationals problems are further exacerbated by kicking the ball around, being the worst fielding team in baseball.

Nice to see Dontrelle Willis have a sharp outing allowing only one hit in 6 1/3 innings to earn the victory in the Tigers 4-0 win over the Rangers. Willis had allowed one it or less through six innings five times in five seasons with Florida and might be returning to form. Of course it helps Texas is spooked at Comerica Park, having lost nine in a row there. The Rangers are batting .289 as team against everybody but Detroit, coming in at paltry .111 against Tigers hurlers in MoTown.

If you had Kansas City on the money line Tuesday, you received an extremely rare treat. Cleveland’s Kerry Wood continues to be unreliable closer, blowing three run lead in the ninth after Cliff Lee pitched a superb ball game. The Royals four run outburst in the bottom of the ninth was the first time in 322 games they had come from behind by three or more runs in the last of the ninth, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

Looking to Keep Winners coming at 3Daily Winners

It’s been a little while, but nailed down a 3-0 day taking us to 45-29-2 in almost a month of action. The Blue Jays were in our system play yesterday, check out the Top Trend to see how they play off a loss. Mark of the LCC is boiling hot and has another Free Play. The Super System is 88.8 percent over the last three years, Holy _ _ _ _. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday – Once again professional athletes can be the most selfish of people on earth. If I needed a win in my home ball park, turning to Mark Buehrle of the Pale Hose is a pretty wise investment.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, with a low on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher, whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. Since 2007, system has delivered 24 winners in 27 attempts. Go against the Giants.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Toronto Blue Jays are 9-1 following a loss this season.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Mark of the LCC picked up two more winners, taking him to 16-2 in last 18 plays and has the Royals coming in tonight at a game he will be attending.

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