Rose Bowl Preview

With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State (9-3 ATS) is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon (7-5 ATS) prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. The Ducks are the favorite and they are 1-6 ATS as bowlers in that role. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS as bowl dogs since 2002. The Pac-10 is 20-11 ATS in last 31 “Grand Daddy” games. The Big Ten has lost last six trips to Pasadena.

The Big Ten prides itself in the football sense on sending a team to the Rose Bowl on par with BCS championship game; it’s what Midwesterner’s know after all these years. This is a VERY important encounter for the conference and the Buckeyes. They’ve lost three straight BCS games to superior teams and though Oregon is the favorite, the Ducks are not in the class of the last trio of squads Ohio State has played in January.

Ohio State’s calling card is defense and they will have to find ways to shutdown the multi-faceted attack of the Ducks. Terrelle Pryor learned at the altar of Brett Favre to announce injury and say it is no big deal, entering in the Rose Bowl. Pryor has a torn PCL, which should limit him to pocket passer.

The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season the last two years and will lean on their offensive line to maintain the 199 yard average on the ground to combat the Ducks defense. That means the offensive line has to shove around Oregon and RB’s Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit creases with authority. The Ohio State defense has forced two or more turnovers in 10 of 12 games this season and will need to keep that pace and score touchdowns if they create Oregon miscues. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS off a SU win, like they enjoyed over Michigan.

Oregon on paper is the better team and wins this game surprisingly easy if they mount an early 10 or 14-point lead. Ohio State is 106th passing in the country and unless they are fortunate enough to hit a few deep balls, the Ducks should be able to play well with the lead. Coach Chip Kelly’s diversified attack has the opportunity to keep Ohio State players and coaches guessing all day pass or run and LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli could have a wonderful opening of 2010 for team that is 6-0 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest over the last three seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 4.5-point favorites with total of 50.5. Common opponents give the edge to the Ducks having beaten USC and Purdue, while Ohio State lost to both. System players should be aware New Year’s Day underdogs of three or more that played on the first day of new year or in BCS game as an underdog of 4.5 or more a season ago are 9-2 ATS.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 2

Pac-10 title on the line in Oregon

ESPN undoubtedly would love to take credit for having the foresight to knowing this year’s “Civil War” between Oregon State and Oregon would have this much at stake. Alas, even the worldwide leader in sports knows that you luck into situations like this, having a Rose Bowl bid at stake. This is the first time ever the conflict has meant a trip to the “Grand Daddy of them all” for both schools.

Even the most optimistic of Oregon State backers saw a middle of the road Beavers team for 2009 and even a month ago would not have had a clue their team would be playing for the right to go to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions.

But on Nov. 7, after upsetting California on the road 31-14 and Oregon losing at Stanford, things started to fall into place for these suddenly eager Beavers. After that win, coach Mike Riley tried to add perspective to his team about lie ahead, “if you win a big game, then the next one gets bigger.” His players accepted the challenge and are riding three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS) and is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight Pac-10 games over the last two seasons.

Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) fans have not made the trek to Pasadena since the first day of 1964. Coach Riley might have a national power if his team could ever get off to fast start. After beginning 2-2 the Beavers have gnawed their way to six wins and covers in last seven games. Oregon State is 16-7 SU and ATS the last four games of the regular season since 2004.

Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS) was brilliant in coming from behind at Arizona, trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 31 in the waning seconds before a frenzied crowded that was ready to storm the field. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was unbelievable down the stretch and in overtime and placed his team in position to be outright Pac-10 champions with a victory against their most hated rival. The Ducks were last conference champions in 2001, but were moved to Fiesta Bowl because of BCS arrangement at the time. A win by Oregon has them playing New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. Oregon is 7-1 ATS with additional rest.

Oregon has scored 42 or more points in each Pac-10 game Masoli has started. He’s a master at running the read-option and powerful runner. His passing and judgment has improved all season. He’ll lead the Pac-10’s second ranked rushing offense against the top-rated run defense. The Beavers only allow 98.4 yards per game on the ground, but were lit up for 385 rushing yards last year at home by the Ducks. Oregon’s incredible efficiency has them 14-3 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Oregon as 9.5-points favorites with total of 61.5. Oregon State knows to win quarterback Sean Canfield has to be on target for league’s best passing attack. The Beavers also have to be able to run close to their average of 147 yards, after gaining just 89 yards in last year’s battle. OSU is 14-3 ATS after the first month of the season and is 9-1 UNDER in road games off three straight wins against conference competition. The outcome could well be determined by the total score with the Ducks 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last two years, winning by over 17 points per game.

This Pac-10 title tilt starts at 9:00 Eastern and Oregon is 7-14 ATS since 1988 vs. Oregon State, however the home teams is 8-4 ATS in last 12.

College Football Game Writeups

The ACC and Conference USA will crown their official champions on Saturday afternoon, in what should be two games unlikely to have starker contrast. About the only thing to need to know is the ACC has an expected total of 38.5 and the C-USA encounter is 65.5. Two outstanding traditional rivalries will be renewed with the Army and Navy matchup (always a well disciplined game) and USC and UCLA meeting again, with the Trojans seeking to make a return date to the Rose Bowl on the first day of the New Year. Click here to read more.