NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Big Games in Big 12 and Big East

In many ways, postseason tournaments are a silly exercise, where three or four days of basketball can wipe away or enhance four months of toiling for players and coaches. However, in the Big 12 and Big East, at least this season, all four nationally ranked teams are already going to the Big Dance and this one is for honor and recognition, played out in prime time on ESPN. It promises to be quite a Saturday night.

Sunflower state battle

The sunflower might be a beautiful delicate flower, which will be in direct contrast to the bragging rights one final time (maybe), as Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Big 12 title in Kansas City.

The Jayhawks are the top team in the land and have owned their state partner, with 30-2 and 22-10 ATS record dating back to 1997. Kansas won both games this season, but Kansas State is not worrying about the past.

“That’s our goal (winning the Big 12 championship) right now,” said Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen, who’s averaging a team-leading 19.1 points. “We have the opportunity in front of us.” The Wildcats just missed knocking off Kansas at Manhattan, falling 81-79 in overtime as four point underdogs.

Kansas State has handled two good clubs in downing Oklahoma State and Baylor in this tournament and is 15-3 and 10-4 ATS after covering the spread this season. K-State coach Frank Martin is cautiously optimistic about this contest.

“I’ve got to think that it’s going to be the best environment of any conference championship game in the country,” Martin said. “I just hope we play well, because if not, it might be a long day against those guys.” His squad is 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas has to be one CBS analyst Clark Kellogg’s favorite teams since he can use one of his favorite pet words “spurtability”. The Jayhawks can look disinterested, matching baskets and quicker than Manny Pacquiao jab, the Jayhawks will run off eight straight points to take control, which is basically how they’ve handled both Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Kansas earned just their fourth cover in 13 tries in win over Aggies.

The Jayhawks are 5.5-point favorites according to Bookmaker.com with total of 147.5 and the favorite is 18-6 ATS, with the last six bitter battles producing 5-1 OVER mark. ESPN has the Big 12 title game between these Top 10 teams at 6:00 Eastern.

Cream to the top in Big Apple

The Big East Tournament has turned into lunacy the last several years with a myriad of upsets and unusual happenings, but in the end, it seems the best teams always emerge in the finals. Georgetown has gotten what it needs from its best three players to advance to this point at Madison Square Garden. Greg Monroe (serious player of the tourney candidate), Chris Wright and Austin Freeman have led the charge for the eighth-seeded Hoyas, who are 5-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season.

West Virginia is chasing a number of factors Saturday night. The Mountaineers were the only top four seed to advance in this tournament and rumors are circulating a Big East title might push them up to No.1 seed depending on how everything shakes out. West Virginia has never won this tournament and the players comprehend the significance.

“It would mean the world to me, just because it would be the first one, and I was part of the team,” star forward Da’Sean Butler said. “It would be something special.” The Mountaineers have yet to lose in tourney action this season with 5-0 record, but are 2-3 ATS.

West Virginia is hopeful peculiar spread run continues, at least for the short term. Coach Bob Huggins squad is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games and has covered two and failed to cover two in blocks since Jan. 26. The Teers have not covered their last two games and hopes things change to their benefit this time around.

West Virginia has won and covered previous two meetings, but lost to G-Town 72-55 in the semi-finals in this event in 2008. The Mountaineers played for the title in 2005, before falling to Syracuse. Georgetown is making third appearance in the final game in four years and 13th overall in its 30-year history.

“At the end of the day, now it’s the championship game,” Monroe said. “I know as a team we came here to win this tournament, and I mean, (Saturday) the lights are going to be on. We have to be prepared to play.”

The Hoyas are two-point underdogs with total of 132.5, with the tipoff set for just after 9:00 Eastern.

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 6:40 AM

The madness of March continued last night and it might end up really costing different teams a NCAA berth. Kent State was the best team in the MAC this season and having seen them play, certainly was a team capable of beating a higher seeded team with their talent level. The Golden Flashes evidently thought they were ticketed for the MAC finals and were torpedoed by arguably the best backcourt in the MAC presently from Ohio U. The Bobcats duo of Armon Bassett (38 points) and D.J. Cooper built a 40-24 halftime time, survived Kent State comeback that got them to four points and cruised to 81-64 win as five-point underdogs.

If Kent State would have gotten to the conference finals and lost, it would hard to ignore them, however it has been since 1999 that the tournament committee has taken two teams from this league.

The Pac-10 is having its worst season in some time and all the publicity has been negative. Arizona State finished second in the conference, but most still felt they needed to win one more game to assure themselves of a bid. If you haven’t seen the Sun Devils play, their personnel can generously be described as limited, but coach Herb Sendek got more than what could have been expected, which also points towards the weakness of the league.

Right from the opening tip it was obvious Stanford had come to play and Arizona State had not. The Cardinal flew to 15-point lead with just under 12 minutes left in the game and won 70-61 as 7.5-point underdogs. That might have killed the Sun Devils tournament chances and the Pac-10 better hope Washington wins this tourney otherwise California might get the only bid.

One last thing on the Pacific 10. What this conference is going through might not be all that unusual in the future. Chances are UCLA, Arizona and USC will all improve in the next couple of years, yet this league is falling behind in recruiting, doesn’t have the “cool factor” and their tournament is joke attendance wise. Last night’s quarterfinals could not have had more than 3,000 people at the Staples Center, more resembling a SWAC contest than that of a major conference. In L.A. you could draw more than 3,000 people if word on the street was Kim Kardashian was going to jello-wrestle at Venice Beach.

It was not a good day to be on the favorites in the Big East and ACC on Thursday. In the Big Apple, Da'Sean Butler’s straight away, banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer helped one favorite make it to semis in the Big East, as third seeded West Virginia was among the four faves that failed to cover.

Only North Carolina’s ineptness in the final 10 minutes prevented all four underdogs from winning outright in the ACC’s opening day. Georgia Tech won 62-58 over the Tar Heels and either covered by a half point or was push depending on when they were purchased.

In Reno, NV, where sports betting is 100 percent legal, the favored teams from the WAC were 100 percent good, as the higher seeds all covered, and collectively beat the number by over 11 points on average, very chalky.

Overall, underdogs were 24-17 ATS on the day following teams that normally have lines on their contests, with 14 outright upsets.

You might rethink that future’s bet on Syracuse in case you missed it, no team has ever won the NCAA Tournament after losing first game in conference tourney.

Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends

Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.

Big East Conference

In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.

On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).

Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%).

Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).

A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.

FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.

Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Big 12 Conference
There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.

The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.

On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.

Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

Conference-USA

The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.

Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.

The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.

C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.

With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).

Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.

There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).

UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.

FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.

The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.

FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.

UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.

The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

Big West Conference
The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.

More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.

The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.

There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.

The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.

FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Big Ten Conference
For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.

There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).

FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.

Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.

LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Atlantic Coast Conference
ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.

UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.

How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.

Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.

Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.

The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

Mid-American Conference

FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.

The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.

The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.

OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

Southeastern Conference
The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.

Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.

In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.

Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.

UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).

In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference
UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).

Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.

Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.

The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total.

Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.

Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Conference Tourney Betting Info -You Gotta Know

Don't have a lot of time to read thru all the information relating to conference tournament games and matchups. Well here is a brief look ahead at 12 tourneys, with concise, pointed info and few angles to consider, along with who should be playing in the title games from each conference. It's worth the time to take a few minutes to get your game face on.

Conference USA Preview – March 10-13

It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.

UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.

Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.

Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final

Championship -11:30ET, CBS

Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13

This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.

Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).

Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.

Prediction: California and Washington final

Championship -6:00ET, CBS

Big 12 Preview - March 10-13

The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.

Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.

Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.

Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN

MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13

Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.

The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.

The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.

Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2

Mountain West Preview - March 10-13

The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.

UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.

Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.

Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final

Championship -7:00ET, Versus

Big East Preview - March 9-13

For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.

In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.

This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.

Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final

Championship -9:00ET, ESPN

Big West Preview – March 10-13

Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.

UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.

This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.

Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final

Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2

WAC Preview – March 11-13

Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.

Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.

Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final

Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2

SEC Preview – March 11-14

This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.

The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.

This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.

Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final

Championship -1:00ET, ABC

Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14

The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.

The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.

Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final

Championship -1:00ET, CBS

ACC Preview – March 11-14

The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.

The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.

Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.

Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final

Championship -1:00ET, ESPN

Big Ten Preview – March 11-14

It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.

Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.

These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final

Championship -3:30ET, CBS

Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.

Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.

Nova takes over Big East with win

Prior to the season, Villanova was expected to be strong contender for the Big East regular season title after their Final Four appearance from a year ago and many of their backcourt players returning. The Wildcats have been exceptional all season at 22-2 (16-7 ATS) and with Syracuse being upset yesterday, can take over sole possession of first place with a victory.

The key player for Villanova is Scottie Reynolds, who directs an offense that scores 85.4 points per game. Reynolds finds ways to involve all his teammates and rarely dominates the ball despite scoring 19 points a game, which is fourth in the Big East.

I don’t want it to always be, Scottie will get us going,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “But I’m glad we have that. That’s something I always have in the back of my mind.” The Wildcats handled Providence Saturday 92-81 in non-cover and is 16-6 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Connecticut (14-11, 8-14-1 ATS) was also thought to be among those teams capable of contending for Big East title, but that plan never got off the table. The Huskies are 4-8 in league play and have lost five of last six, covering the spread just one time. Even the return of coach Jim Calhoun (out seven games with undisclosed illness) did nothing to lift the spirits of UConn players who shot a season low 34.6 percent in home loss to Cincinnati 60-48.

“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.” The Huskies are 5-5 and 2-7 ATS off a loss this season.

That doesn’t mean to sell Connecticut short however. Calhoun is a Hall of Fame coach. In much the same manner, Louisville was sickly at St. John’s, losing by 19 points this past Thursday and came immediately back to knock off No. 2 Syracuse on Sunday. It would not be a shock if the Huskies are ferocious with plenty of spunk tonight in Philadelphia.

DiamondSportsbook.com has UConn catching 9.5-points with total of 155.5. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS as road underdogs and 6-2 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points. Villanova on the other hand is 19-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons and has covered last seven of 10 as a favorite.

This is the opening game on Big Monday starting at 7:00 Eastern and the home teams has covered eight of last 10 meetings.

Big East and The Valley have showcase contests

Whenever Pittsburgh and West Virginia matchup up in any competition it is charmingly known as the “Backyard Brawl”. This evening, these bitter rivals will go head to head again, each trying to not fall further behind front-running Villanova in the Big East. In the heartland, the often underrated Missouri Valley will have its top two teams clashing, with Northern Iowa all but creating insurmountable lead with a win or Wichita State climbing with a game with a victory.

Pittsburgh at West Virginia 7:00E

Both of these universities are more well known for football, which would explain why this is just the fourth meeting out of 179-game history that both teams come in ranked. Pittsburgh (16-5, 10-7-2 ATS) has fallen to 22nd in the country, having lost three of four, as their point production has fallen. The Panthers are not an offensive juggernaut to begin with, averaging 67.5 points per game, but in last four outings they are woebegone 62.7 PPG. In their upset loss at South Florida this past Sunday, they missed Jermaine Dixon, a known defender, as Bulls guard Dominique Jones hung 37 on Pitt. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS after playing a road game over the last two seasons.

West Virginia (17-3, 7-12 ATS) was like a movie in their 77-74 win over Louisville. The Mountaineers had a great beginning and ending (outscored the Cardinals 31-4 in those segments) and rather dull in the middle. West Virginia has been very good team all year with the likes of Da’Sean Butler among others; however they have lacked a big man, until now. 6’9 freshman Deniz Kilicli makes his debut after sitting out 20 games for NCAA rules violation and he is the skilled wide body coach Bob Huggins needs, it’s just a matter of changing team chemistry this far down the road. Playing at home will help the Mountaineers who are 32-13 ATS on the own floor off a home win.

West Virginia has reeled off four straight wins and is 6-5 and 4-7 hosting Pittsburgh the last 12 years and is a nine-point favorite at Sportsbook.com. The ‘Teers are 10-1 SU at The Coliseum this season with meager 3-7 ATS mark.

Wichita State at Northern Iowa 8:00E

The Panthers of Northern Iowa (19-2, 15-5 ATS) have been one of the best bets in college basketball all season and have just one loss in the Missouri Valley Conference. That was administered 15 days ago by tonight’s foe Wichita State (19-4, 9-7 ATS), who travels to Cedar Falls. UNI plays at a controlled pace in scoring 64.8 points per game, with very balanced scoring. What makes them challenging club to play is their defense, holding opposing teams to 55.1 points per game on 40 percent shooting. They actually held Wichita State to season long defensive field goal percentage average in 60-51 defeat, but where done in by their own inability to shoot effectively, especially in the first half. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less two consecutive games this season.

The Shockers are a 6.5-point underdog and trail Northern Iowa by two games in the Valley standings. They too spread around the ball for scoring purposes, with top three scorers separated by just one point. Third leading scorer J.T. Durley did most of the damage in last meeting, tallying 19 points. Wichita State is off a 55-54 win at Southern Illinois and is 22-9 ATS in road games after one or more Under’s.

The duo of Adam Koch and Jordan Eglseder is handful for any opponent and the Northern Iowa guards value each possession which is why they are 9-2 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. In the last 12 years the Panthers are 8-3 and 7-4 ATS at the McLeod Center vs. Wichita State.

Thursday College Hoops Action

With the college basketball firmly entrenched in conference play, this night of the week tends to be the most unusual. Thursday has made for TV games on the worldwide leader and Pac-10 play. The rest tends to be a collection of teams you might see once every five years if you are serious student of the game and a large number of universities with hyphens. That’s OK, since Thursday is the second busiest weeknight for the sports bettor in college hoops and who doesn’t like the challenge of being the guru of the West Coast or Big West conferences. Here is a peak at a couple contests this evening.

Big East teams in need of rally

Louisville’s recent loss to Villanova pointed towards a problem the Cardinals have and isn’t going to go away without commitment. Louisville players like the feeding frenzy of pressing all over the court and forcing turnovers; however they haven’t taken a liking bending over, getting in defensive stance and guarding their man for 25 seconds or more. This is why the Cardinals (12-6, 5-8 ATS) allow an ordinary 42.2 percent shooting percent and it skyrockets to 45.5 percent on the road. In order for Louisville to become a better squad, coach Rick Pitino is going to have to convince them that defense isn’t just about making steals, it’s about preventing scoring. The Cards are 18-6 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

Not unexpectedly, Seton Hall (10-6, 3-7 ATS) has struggled in Big East action with 1-4 record. The Pirates have three different players capable of playing point guard, what has hurt them is their weaknesses have been exposed in conference play and when one fails, the other hasn’t raised his level of play to compensate. Seton Hall insiders believe playing two of these guards at the same time might be a solution, however that makes a Pirates team lacking height ever shorter. The Hall’s defensive numbers don’t look too bad in allowing 41.7 percent shooting, but they have permitted 50 or more in last three outings and are 0-7 ATS in next game after surrendering 47 percent or more in a trio of games.

Coach Pitino by his own admission is off the second most difficult loss of his career at Pittsburgh (the Duke Christian Laettner game was the worst) and his team is a one point underdog at Bookmaker.com. Louisville is well suited for this spot with 15-3 ATS record as a road underdog of three points or less or pick. This has the appearance of a high scoring affair with either defense not playing especially well and both teams scoring over 80 points a game. The Cardinals are 10-2 OVER in all games this season and Seton Hall is 13-4 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

This is just the third Big East contest in New Jersey between teams (1-1 SU & ATS) with both games going Over. Tipoff is at 7:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Pac-10 Mess

Let’s face it, the Pacific 10 conference this season looks like a California interstate, jam-packed and just waiting for a wreck to occur. The league actually looks like a wreck with three teams sporting two losses in league play and the other seven all with three defeats. The way it’s setting up, whoever finishes over .500 in the conference has a chance to be champion. The bracketologists of the world (do we need these guys or should President Obama just appoint a czar) have suggested if the Pac-10 plays out as many expect, the conference is looking at one NCAA bid, with two tops as the ceiling.

Tonight, Washington State (13-5, 5-10 ATS) visits USC (11-6, 9-7 ATS). These teams are polar opposites in the wagering world. The Cougars are 3-3 in league play with just one cover. What’s odd about this is Wazzou has shot 50 percent or higher in four of six Pac-10 games and still is 1-5 ATS. The Trojans return home off a three game road trip and look as good as any team in the conference.

With its well-documented off the court problems, USC made a strange hire in Kevin O’Neill though they didn’t have a lot of choices because of timing. The seemingly always sour-faced O’Neill found players willing to listen to his negative tone and defensive orientation and have responded. The turning point was upsetting Tennessee in early December and the Men of Troy have won nine of 11 and have covered six of seven including four in a row.

USC has been sent out as eight-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS after four straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last three seasons. With the Trojans holding teams to 54.7 points per game on 36.7 percent shooting, it doesn’t place Washington State in favorable position with 0-8 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams allowing 57 or less points a game.

Big Monday is Back

With football relegated to weekends the rest of the season, college basketball is back on the front burner. That means a dose of Big East and Big 12 hoops for the next couple of months and wagering opportunities from two of the best conferences in the collegiate game. We start this Monday with a “Whiteout” in Louisville and “Bedlam” bash in Norman. Get Ready!

Cardinal red is white

Louisville (12-4, 5-6 ATS) spent the early part of the season learning to play without its two best players from a year ago and coach Rick Pitino has added responsibility with their hard work and maturity. He’s brought back different full-court defenses, that have man-to-man principles in the half court and the players love it. Guards Preston Knowles and Edgar Sosa are embracing the challenge and Samardo Samuels has become more dominant. The Cardinals are on 18-6 ATS run in Big East action the last two years.

The last couple of years, Louisville has added a special night when everyone in the arena wears white t-shirts, for the whiteout-effect and coach Rick Pitino has joined in the festivities wearing a pure white suit with a red tie, which led to coining the phrase “respect the suit”. The Cardinals have won seven of eight, including a non-cover over St. John’s 75-68 Saturday. Louisville is 23-12 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.

After squeaking by Marquette twice in eight days by a total of four points, once beaten Villanova (14-1, 10-4 ATS) lands in Kentucky. The Wildcats have a number of ways to attack teams with its marvelous guard contingent and should not be vastly affected by the different types of presses Louisville likes to use. Few guards in the country have been through the wars like Scottie Reynolds and his team is 13-3 ATS vs. good offensive clubs averaging 77 or more points per game. Coach Jay Wright’s concern is defensive intensity, where he has seen unnecessary lapses.

When asked about having his team readiness to play after nipping Marquette 78-76 Saturday, Wright said. “We’ll be fired up to play”.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cardinals as three-point favorites, with total of 155. Villanova is averaging 84.3 points per game and Louisville is 5-15 ATS versus offensive teams -scoring 84 or more points game. The Wildcats have to contend with the Cards various defenses and are 6-16 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

These teams have split six engagements the last 12 years with the ‘Ville 5-1 ATS.

Bedlam to reign

Oklahoma (9-6, 4-8 ATS) figured to have problems with the departure of All-American Blake Griffin, but not to this extreme. The Sooners have lost five games by double digits and the last three have been a nightmare, being destroyed by 15, 24 and 31 respectively. Oklahoma brought in a number of new recruits that were supposed to blend with talented returnees like guard Willie Warren, but as coach Jeff Capel said about his underperforming squad, “Talent is overrated,”.

The Sooners are 0-6 ATS off a spread loss and defensive effort has been the biggest culprit. In their last three blowouts, they have allowed opposing teams to shoot 55.8 percent. Maybe a battle with in-state rival will stir their hearts.

Oklahoma State (13-2, 6-2-1 ATS) started Big 12 play with bang, burying then No.22 Texas Tech 81-52 two nights ago. James Anderson led the way with 28 points and they have done a superb job protecting the ball with just over 11 turnovers a game, which is on pace to break a school record. The Cowboys are averaging 75.1 points per game this season and are 10-1 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State opened as a one-point favorite, with total of 146. The Cowboys have covered 10 of last 11 league games and are 13-5 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins. Oklahoma has taken nine of last 12 meetings at home, with 5-7 ATS mark and is 12-3 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

The Sooners are dismal 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 Big Monday’s.

Pittsburgh visits the Queen City

The Pittsburgh Panthers drew the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East slate to begin league play, both on the road. The first part of the process was no problem after upsetting previously undefeated Syracuse 82-72. Now it’s off to the Queen City for the Panthers (12-2, 5-4-2 ATS) who have won five in a row.

Pittsburgh has survived despite having its fewest number of returning starters in years. Brad Wanamaker has emerged as more of a scoring guard than expected and Nasir Robinson has added to the offense. Jermaine Dixon is finally healthy and making solid contributions and Ashton Gibbs has been dropping some three-point bombs.

Even with how good Pitt basketball has been for a number of years, highly-touted freshman Dante Taylor is their first McDonald’s All-American in 21 years. Pittsburgh comes into this game 10-1 ATS after four straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.

Cincinnati (10-3, 4-4-1 ATS) is a tweener team, they could be better or worse than preseason prognostications or just middle of the pack in the Big East. The potential is there for the Bearcats to be quite good as the backcourt Deonta Vaughn, redshirt freshman Cashmere Wright and true frosh Lance Stephenson could be second only to Villanova. For Cincy to be noticed, they must be unbeaten at home and close to .500 on the road.

The Bearcats have started strong in Big East play with wins over Connecticut and Rutgers and to move up on the next rung of the conference ladder, they must overcome 5-18 ATS record after playing a game as favorite.

DiamondSportsbook.com Cincinnati has 4.5-point favorites, with total of 126. The Bearcats are unsightly 0-10 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite and 11-2 OVER in home games after three contests allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less. Pittsburgh is well aware of Cincy’s failures vs. better clubs (2-9 ATS against teams with win percentage of 80 percent or higher the last two years) and will have to match their intensity on the road. The Panthers are 10-2 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less over the last three seasons.

ESPN has this telecast for the unofficial start of Big Monday and Pittsburgh has won five of last six encounters against Cincinnati with .500 spread mark.

West Virginia in upset mode

West Virginia (7-2, 2-6 ATS) is in a unique situation in the Big East. They can make themselves conference champions by knocking off Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers in their remaining games. A loss to either the Bearcats or Panthers would help determine who eventually is named champion or beating those two schools, but losing at Rutgers would be the cruelest fate of all. West Virginia’s offense has slowed, after scoring 30 or more points in their first five games; as they have not managed to climb to that barrier since.

The Mountaineers defense, once a fixture in the Top 30, now allows far too many big plays of 20 or more yards, which is a real issue having to deal with Cincinnati offense. West Virginia will need A-game and is 11-4 ATS in road encounters in Nov/Dec. regular season contests.

The Bearcats are 9-0 for the first time in 58 years and brimming with confidence. Coach Brian Kelly is a noted taskmaster, yet his in-game demeanor has been much calmer this season. Cincinnati (6-3 ATS) players always look to be prepared and seem to enjoy playing, something not always seen from others on a week to week basis. A win here and just two games remain, a final home contest in non-conference action against Illinois and a likely huge showdown at Pittsburgh.

Cincy can’t ignore a mildly underachieving West Virginia squad who is capable of big upset. That’s where the defense had to play smart and whoever is the quarterback has to remain composed. The latest information has sophomore Zach Collaros makes his fourth straight start as the Bearcats chase the first 10-0 start in school history. Coach Kelly has waffled a little this week about who his starter once Tony Pike is healthy. Pike is expected to see playing time in this Big East battle. The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as nine-point underdogs, with total of 55. The Mountaineers are 14-2-1 SU against Cincy and will be an underdog for the first time since the ‘Cats joined the Big East.

West Virginia’s offense has taken notice that the two best rushing attacks Cincinnati has faced, Fresno State and UConn, both went over 200 yards on the ground. Can the ‘Teers take advantage on a short week, since they are 1-5 ATS on Friday nights? The Bearcats have shown ability to rebound off a weak defensive effort and are 8-1-1 ATS after conceding 200 or more yards on the ground. Coach Kelly teams are 7-0 ATS at home after ringing up 37 or more points.
ESPN2 will bring this Big East confrontation into viewers living rooms, with the visitor is 5-1-1 ATS and the Under is on 4-1 run.

South Florida Flipped as Favorite

This Thursday evening Big East battle is about bowl placement as much as anything. Earlier conference defeats have relegated these clubs to more minor bowls; however either is capable of finishing 10-2, if they win this contest. Both programs have to feel good about the future, at least from the quarterback position, with freshmen B.J. Daniels for South Florida and Tom Savage at Rutgers at the helm.

South Florida (6-2, 4-3 ATS) showed fire in the belly, upsetting West Virginia at home 30-19 as 2.5-point underdogs, after losing to front-running Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. Daniels played his most complete game in that win and has the ability to make plays with his feet and shown a good touch on deep passes that has led to several big plays by the Bulls offense. Rutgers is 0-11 ATS when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards per attempt.

On defense, linemen George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul mess with their opponents passing game, able to apply steady pressure and safety Nate Allen makes big plays all over the field. The weakness of this group is when an opposing team lines up and runs right at them, like the Bearcats and Panthers did for combined 403 yards on the ground. South Florida is 1-8 ATS as favorites against team with over .600 record.

The Scarlet Knights (6-2, 3-5 ATS) defense matches up numbers wise against South Florida (322.9 vs. 315.6 yards allowed), however much of that came against inferior competition. What Greg Schiano’s defense has to do is take away the Bulls rushing attack (3.3 YPG allowed) and play Cover 2 defensive principles, forcing Daniels to be accurate thrower underneath, which has not been his strength to date. They lead the Big East in takeaways with 25.

On offense, have RB Joe Martinek use his big body to run downhill at the USF defense, which sets up Savage in the play-action passing game. Rutgers is 9-1 ATS since last season after a SU victory.

South Florida has gone as one-point road favorite to two-point underdog with total at 45 at Bookmaker.com. Both universities come in with negative trends, with the Bulls 5-8 ATS in last 13 Big East road games and the Scarlet Knights 10-21-1 ATS with extra time off. Rutgers is also a train wreck with 3-16 ATS mark in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better, however, almost two weeks have passed since that occurred.

The underdog has had plenty of bite; with perfect 4-0 spread record the last four years. The average score in that time span is surprising 60 points per game.

The Big East and ESPN get a head start on the NFL, with his matchup commencing at 7:45 Eastern, with USF on 0-4 ATS Thursday slide.

Backing West Virginia Takes Courage

Before the season, the Big East Conference figured to be one of the most competitive in the country and that is holding true heading into the last weekend of October. West Virginia, as expected has held up well with 6-1 record (2-4 ATS). Like all teams, the Mountaineers have had to deal with adversity. Six turnovers cost them a win at Auburn and quarterback Jarrett Brown suffered a mild concussion on West Virginia’s fourth offensive play and left the game against in-state rival Marshall, which meant true freshman backup Geno Smith had to step in and guide team to 24-7 win.

As the Mountaineers have distanced themselves from the option offense, receivers like Jock Sanders have seen more throws. Running back Noel Devine might not be seeing as many chances to get wide; however the running lanes are still there for the speedy back, as the Mountaineers are second in the conference in total offense at 420.9 yards per game. West Virginia’s run defense is one of the best (10th overall) in allowing 2.8 yards per carry. The ‘Teers are 12-3 and 11-4 ATS on the Big East road the last five years.

Under coach Bill Stewart wins are likely, however spread covers not so much. The always smiling Stewart is 16-5 SU with 7-12 ATS record.

This is the last of brutish three-game stretch for South Florida (5-2, 2-3 ATS), after taking on conference partner’s Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and losing to each of them. The Bulls have been running the ball effectively (177.7 yards per game) on a couple of fronts, with quarterback B.J. Daniels scampering on predetermined and not so predetermined runs. The normal aspect of the running game has worked with a trio of running backs all displaying different skills.

One conundrum South Florida has to change if they want to really be a true Big East contender, quit taking all the penalties (over nine per game). Against lesser competition they have the talent to overcome them. But when looking in the mirror talent-wise, this is real shortcoming for team that is 3-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

South Florida is known for having talented defensive linemen like George Selvie, yet has allowed over 175 yards rushing in four of seven games, suggesting a lack of discipline up front and linebackers not able to stay free and make tackles. After Pittsburgh pasted them for 214 yards on the ground in 41-14 thumping, the Bulls are 1-4 ATS after permitting 200 or more yards rushing.

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as three-point road favorite, with total of 48. South Florida is 3-1 ATS vs. West Virginia with outright upsets in 2006-07. To forecast the Mountaineers performance, a Magic 8 ball comes in handy. Does the West Virginia team with 19-7 ATS record in October road games show up or the one that is 1-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better make appearance.

ESPN2 will have this Big East battle and watch the total, with average score 35 combined points in the four meetings.

Pittsburgh's cry for help against Rutgers

The look on Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt is often pained. Some say it a reminder of his own coaching limitations while others suggest Wanny is not often pleased with the results his teams provide. Whatever the reason, mention the team “Rutgers” and you are sure to see a head snap, a shoulder shrug and eyes downcast.

“They’ve had our number the last four years,” Wannstedt said.

Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-2 ATS) has dropped four in a row to the Scarlet Knights, failing to cover the spread three times. It’s no magic formula either, Rutgers has whipped the Panthers running the ball down their throats and passing them silly.

Coach Wannstedt believes his squad is better equipped to handle the assignment this year with a very sturdy defensive front seven that is that permitting just 2.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Pitt offense has been sharp all season, averaging better than 34 points per game. The running game has really come together behind a road-grating offense line and freshman running sensation Dion Lewis. Pittsburgh averages 5.0 yards per carry against defenses that have allowed 3.8 YPC. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in October of late.

One of the most improved quarterbacks in the country is Bill Stull of Pitt. Anyone who saw him play in last year’s Sun Bowl would have thought he would have a hard time making the team again. But Stull worked hard in the off-season and presently has 13 TD passes while throwing only three interceptions.

“Bill Stull is playing at an efficiency level that is as good as anyone in the country,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Pittsburgh is 19th in the country in yards per pass attempt as 8.5.

Rutgers (4-1, 1-2 ATS) is a hard team to have a very good feel about. They were overwhelmed by Cincinnati in the season opener 47-7, before anyone knew how good the Bearcats were. Home wins over FCS teams Howard and Texas Southern offer no insight and Florida International and Maryland are frequently good homecoming opponents.

Here are a few things we do know about Rutgers. Their defense, sixth ranked versus the rush in the country, might be somewhat fraudulent, nonetheless nothing fake about forcing 15 turnovers in last four games, no matter the competition level. They shutout Texas Southern 42-0 in last contest and are 8-1-1 ATS off a SU victory.

True freshman quarterback Tom Savage is a real talent and has started three games. He played some against Cincinnati, but this will be his first real test under center involving Big East football.

The offensive line returned all five starters and was presumed to be the strength of the team. They haven’t played up to press clippings and though the running game has improved against inferior teams, they have allowed 14 sacks through five games, the most in the conference. With Pittsburgh having a very good defensive line, the Rutgers O-Line has stay out of third and longs to help their youthful field general. The Knights are 4-1-1 ATS after a win by 20 or more points.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as six-point road favorites with total having fallen dramatically from 51 to 45.5. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS on the road, but are just 6-13 ATS as favorites. They are 6-2 UNDER after totaling 450 or more yards of offense. Rutgers is in a role they are very comfortable in; showcasing 10-4 ATS mark as home underdog. The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 UNDER after a game where they forced three or more turnovers since 2007.

This the second Big East nationally televised cable matchup on ESPN in two nights and it starts at 8 Eastern, with the underdog 6-1 against the spread. Rutgers cannot afford a second conference loss with five more games to play.

Cincy Favored in Big East Bash

It won’t be long before some big-time college football program is going to be ready to cough up the cash to have the services coach Brian Kelly. Since taking over at Cincinnati, Kelly is 27-6 (5-0 in 2009) and 17-12-1 against the spread. Last year’s Big East title and appearance in the Orange Bowl has the Queen City fired up about something besides college hoops.

A few nay-sayers will complain that the Bearcats (3-2 ATS) have not played a Miami Hurricanes schedule to this point, however how many teams would be undefeated today if they had ONE returning defensive starter? Quarterback Tony Pike is leading a sensational offense averaging 329.8 yards passing, often looking towards playmaker Mardy Gilyard. If teams try to double Gilyard, that has opened up chances for running back Jacob Ramsey to slice and dice the opposition. Cincy is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

South Florida (5-0, 2-1 ATS) was on the edges of Big East title conversations coming into the season, after not meeting expectations a year ago. When senior quarterback Matt Grothe went down to injury, what supporters they had bailed faster than General Motors did on Saturn.

However, redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels has stepped in under center and delivered big plays and wins against Florida State and Syracuse and all the sudden, more seats are being added to the Bulls bandwagon. They are 5-1 ATS in last six lined games.

On defense, watch for defensive tackle George Selvie and safety Nate Allen, two outstanding talents. This gruesome twosome will have to get after Pike and their defense ranks fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and 10th in total yards allowed (263.0) nationally. They have forced 16 turnovers on the season.

“We'd be concerned if our defense was out there struggling, but as you can see the last two weeks, they've bowed up when they needed to and they're continuing to make plays," said Pike. "On offense, we're going to come out when we get the possessions and make the most out of it."

Cincy opened as 1.5-point favorites and were swiftly moved to -2.5 by the wagering public , bot retreated since back to two points at Bookmaker.com, with total of 48.5. Cincinnati ranks third in the country in scoring with 43.2 points per game, with Pike throwing a TD pass in 15 consecutive games. The Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS against teams with winnings records. South Florida has to contain the Cincinnati offense and hope to hit a few big plays to grab the momentum. The Bulls are only 3-9 ATS against winning teams in last dozen tries.

This could be head-buster and a lower scoring than it appears. USF is 6-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record and the Bearcats are 12-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

These are two programs that will showcase their considerable talents to a national cable audience and South Florida is 8-3 ATS at home against Big East competition the last three years. One of those losses has been against Cincinnati, whom they are 1-4 and 0-5 against the spread.

ESPN has this Big East showcase at 7:45 Eastern.

A Distinct Big East Flavor in East Final

The Big East Conference tested the strong and the weak all season. Every team was required to play 18 games skin-on-skin confrontations, along with the conference tournament. The NCAA tournament committee has gone out of its way to have teams from the same conference not compete unless they should meet in the Final Four, but with the superior quality of the Big East this year, it became impossible to avoid such a situation should the teams arrive.

If No.1 Pittsburgh (31-4, 17-12 ATS) would emerge as national champions, nobody could say it was easy for the Panthers. They have been pushed to the final minutes in all three games and come in a less than intimidating top seed. Pitt doesn’t seem to have the emotional-fire ready, having not covered last four contests and just three of last nine. Any Pittsburgh backer will tell the tournament credo of “survive and advance” is being taken to ridiculous measures, for a team that is 30-15 ATS against teams that have 80 percent or higher win percentage.

At least the Panthers have the revenge card to play, having suffered one of their four losses at the hands of Villanova. In losing 67-57 in Philadelphia, coach Jamie Dixon’s squad was 3-16 from deep, on the way to shooting 40.7 percent and committing 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS revenging a loss.

This is Villanova’s second trip to Elite Eight in four years and they appear more equipped to make first Final Four appearance since 1985, when they played the “perfect” game in upsetting Georgetown for the national title. These Wildcats (29-7, 18-14 ATS) and have tremendous balance. What makes Villanova so difficult to defend is they have seven players each capable of scoring 10 or more points. Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds have to have their points, especially in big games, for the ‘Cats to be 10-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Coach Jay Wright has his players focused on defense and rebounding and opposing teams are paying the price. Duke and UCLA did not have room to execute their halfcourt offenses and were crushed on the boards. In Villanova’s last four contests, they have outrebounded teams 170-119 and are 15-4 ATS after two straight games with an advantage of 10 or more on the glass.
Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite at Betjamaica.com, with total of 142. The first Elite Eight contest is also a 1vs3 matchup and it is worth following, as top seeds have won three in a row, by at least eight points. The total comes into affect on two levels, first, when these seeds have met in this round, the OVER is 7-2 and when the total is less than 145 points; the OVER is spectacular 20-6 ATS.

For Pittsburgh to make first Final Four since 1941, DeJuan Blair and company must stay out of foul trouble and the guards will have to handle the on the ball pressure better.

Villanova has to cause Panthers miscues and take the game right to Pittsburgh from the start. Though the Pitt players have not panicked when falling behind early in all their NCAA games, these ‘Cats are playing very well and far more talented than what they have seen.

No matter what, the Big East will have a representative out of the East region.