Jets vs. Bengals Betting Matchup

All the NFL analysts on television and radio keep saying the same thing don’t read too much into the New York Jets clocking Cincinnati 37-0 last week. The Jets had to win and the Bengals had nothing to play for blah, blah, blah. In theory that makes sense, but is losing by such a horrific score ever a good thing, especially when you have to play the same team again the next week?

The motivation angle works that Cincinnati will be more fired up after being throttled and will be back on home field before adoring fans and bring full playbook as opposed to Cliff Notes version they used last week.

There are a number of troubling signs for Bengals fans despite the dismissal. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games and has covered the spread just one time. They have scored more than 20 points just twice since November and one of those was 23 against Detroit, not exactly newsworthy. Say what you will about playing possum, but after allowing 257 yards on the ground to the Jets, Cincy is 4-15 ATS after surrendering 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Cincinnati has lost four defensive starters since the Week 3 of the season and they plainly are not as good as they were earlier in the year. Carson Palmer has really only played one outstanding game the second half of the season, when he threw for 293 net yards at San Diego. Granted the focus has been running the ball more, nonetheless the loss of Chris Henry as a player has impacted the passing game tremendously.

The Jets defense ranked No.1 in total defense and Darrelle Revis had a special year at corner. He certainly has the ability to take away the Bengals top receiver, Chad Ochocinco. As Coach Rex Ryan pointed out, New York at least in theory is built for the playoffs. They feature a strong defense with top-rated running game at 172.2 yards per game, led by Thomas Jones and are 12-2 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards.

Coach Ryan made no specific reference to quarterback Mark Sanchez and for good reason, since he is realistically their top liability coming into the game. Undoubtedly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will do everything he can to protect his rookie signal, but will have to deal with Cincinnati’s run blitzes on early downs after going totally vanilla a week ago.

Sanchez will be forced to complete slant passes or quick outs against solid Bengals corners Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The Jets traded for Braylon Edwards during the season and it is his time to be a difference-maker. The Flyboys are 6-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning home records.

The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long, unless the running game clicks and Palmer starts completing some passes. Expect Cincinnati to run crossing routes to either free up Ochocinco or create space for other pass-catchers to be a factor. The Bengals offensive line has to bring it and create lanes for Cedric Benson.

Bookmaker.com has Cincinnati favored by 2.5-points with total of 33.5. The Cats are 0-7 ATS as favorites this season and 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game the last three years. New York is hardly a picture of prosperity with 2-10 ATS record after two straight wins by 10 or more points; however are 8-3 ATS as road dogs catching three or fewer points.

The home team has covered the last four meetings and Cincy is 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite.

Week 3 is sneak peek into the start of NFL regular season

This is the week most NFL coaches enjoy in August, having preparation that is most similar to what the regular season will be like in a couple of weeks. For the most part, the starters will play in the third quarter and the intensity level is relatively high for football played this month, with jobs on the line at various positions and teams wanting to make a good showing. Week 3 starts with three contests, all with their own unique flavor.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

If this was a TMZ.com piece, Michael Vick would be splashed all over and quotes and pictures would be seen. However this isn’t TMZ, this is about sports betting and what could lie ahead for a pair of teams without a preseason victory. Teams that don’t win a game in the preseason have averaged 7.3 wins a year once the real season begins since 1997, which is well below the expectations for both these clubs. Even worse, only one of the last 11 teams that were 0 for the preseason has made the playoffs. (Thanks Mr. East of Playbook.com for that info)


Jacksonville has lost there two games by a total four points and could just as easily be 2-0, be it for a bit more offensive execution. Quarterback David Garrard has looked sharp and receiver Troy Williamson has been exceptional opposite of Torry Holt as the Jaguars new receivers’ core. The Jacksonville running game needs to find another gear after producing 127 yards the first two games. The Jags head to Philly as 7.5-point underdogs according to Bookmaker.com and they are 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Coach Andy Reid stated Donovan McNabb will play the first three quarters and Kevin Kolb the final 15 minutes, but Mr. Vick will see time with the starters. The impression one has is Reid wants to start having upcoming regular season opponents start game-planning for the Eagles newest weapon. Of greatest concern to Philadelphia is the projected offense line starters have not played one down together and they are unlikely too this week either. Philly is only 2-7 ATS in third game of preseason.

Miami at Tampa Bay

This Fox nationally televised contest will have a Florida flavor with the Dolphins at Tampa Bay. Miami has looked impressive in first starts and though Chad Pennington is the clear starter at quarterback, back-up Chad Henne is looking like the future of Fins football. He’s been confident and a real leader and his passes have more zip on them, something not seen since the guy doing the Nutri-System commercials was wearing a Miami helmet. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively (129.5 yards per game) and the defensive line has contained opponents rushing attack. Curious to see if Tampa Bay goes after Dolphins safeties who are vulnerable to the pass. The Fish are 2.5-point underdogs and are 23-15-2 ATS in this spot.

Tampa Bay has split a pair of contests, winning as underdog last week against Jacksonville and is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. New head coach Raheem Morris has not named a starting quarterback yet, with the front office putting out feelers to find out what Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich could bring back in trade. Both have obvious limitations and top pick Josh Freeman isn’t ready. Indecision is not good and the Bucs are 1-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Whatever appeal this game has is lessened by the fact both starting quarterbacks might not see any action. Carson Palmer has an ankle issue and Marc Bulger a finger problem. That means a heavy dose J.T. O'Sullivan for Cincinnati and St. Louis counters with Kyle Boller.

The Bengals first unit has moved the ball no matter who has played quarterback and is averaging 6.4 yards per play. It has been breakdowns at the wrong times that have stalled drives and left them without any points. Expect this to be an area coach Marvin Lewis wants more production from, for a squad that is 1-7 ATS in Week 3.

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs and have a lot to shore up before regular season begins. The entire defense has made multiple miscues in understanding new coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’s been preaching "Get low and stick 'em" tackling, however too many defenders have fallen back to old ways and it will just take time. St. Louis is a sickly 1-9 ATS off a home loss.