Defense could reign at Holiday Bowl

The chant “D-Fence” might be ringing around Qualcomm Park for this addition of the 2009 Holiday Bowl. If this is low-scoring defense struggle, don’t be surprised, since Nebraska ranks ninth in total defense and Arizona comes in 20th among FBS schools. Those who watched the Big 12 championship game, viewed just how good defensive tackle Nudamukong Suh and the rest of the Nebraska defense is in almost taking down Texas.

Nebraska (9-4, 8-4 ATS) was a foot away from an upset of the Longhorns and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must regroup and prepare for Arizona who can also play a little D. The children of the corn are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Wildcats finished 11th in the country against the run and they will look to corral Roy Helu, one of the more underrated backs in the country. Quarterback Zac Lee does not appear to pose a threat, since he has neither the arm, accuracy nor poise under pressure to run long drives against a defense like Arizona. The Cats are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference clashes and can turn some heads with a win in San Diego.

For long time Holiday Bowl aficionados, this is the second ever rematch, with these teams having competed in 1998. The Wildcats (8-4, 6-6 ATS) won 23-20 on that day and they will be after a second trophy.

Arizona’s season took off when Nick Foles took over as quarterback, giving them diversity on offense. The Wildcats will face a very good Nebraska pass defense and he will have to make quick reads and release the ball for a team that is 9-3 ATS as underdogs.

For all of Nebraska’s previous excellence, they are pedestrian 23-22 and 16-15 ATS after the regular season. The line movement has been wild on this matchup. The Cornhuskers started as favorites, were sent to underdogs by early bettors, with the late money reestablishing them as three-point favorites at DiamondSportsbook.com. No matter who is the favorite, it’s been a good thing in this spot with 10-3 SU and ATS in this encounter since 1996.

Arizona has a three bowl winning streak, however it dates back to 1997 and they are 6-7-1 and 6-4-1 ATS all-time. Since 1998, this has been a Big 12-Pac 10 tilt, with the teams from out west 8-3 ATS. In the last dozen years, the Big 12 is 3-9 ATS.

Both defenses would seem to have decided edges over respective offenses, but both could force turnovers or create field position advantages that could lead to points, thus the Under isn’t a guarantee.

ESPN has this surely physical battle at 8:00 Eastern and Nebraska’s outstanding kicker Alex Henery could be the difference in a tight tilt.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 4

Not your ordinary college football Saturday

The third Saturday in November is always special on the gridiron. No matter the circumstances, Ohio State and Michigan automatically makes this day standout. However, this is not all that matters in college football, not a long shot. The ACC Atlantic could well be determined if Clemson wins, nevertheless, Boston College is right there to take their place should they falter. Oregon heads the desert at night, still searching for Rose Bowl bid and takes on assiduous Arizona squad. Nebraska wraps up Big 12 North with victory at home; while Texas looks to make it official they would play the Cornhuskers for the conference crown with a win over Kansas. While LSU and Mississippi have are playing only for pride, these are still two of the better teams in the country, which makes this intriguing SEC matchup. All numbers from Bookmaker.com.

Ohio State (-12, 47) at Michigan 12:00E ABC

From the standpoint of being truly meaningful, this won’t be the most dynamic of Ohio State and Michigan matchups, nevertheless it still counts just because it is these two teams. The Buckeyes squeaked by Iowa at home last week 27-24 in overtime and will be playing in first Rose Bowl in 13 years. The last thing Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS ) looked like a month ago was team going to Pasadena as Big Ten representative after losing at Purdue 26-18, as two touchdown road favorites. But as coach Jim Tressel said, “We have to go back to work and fix things” which is exactly what the Buckeyes did. What Ohio State has really done in putting this four-game winning streak together is keep it simple and basic. Play great defense, win the field position battle and make enough plays on offense to turn the tide of the game. The Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS a Big ten road favorites since 2005.

After a promising 4-0 start, Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS) is staggering to the finish line. Their only win after quick beginning is against FCS Delaware State. The defense is squarely to blame, having conceded 35 points per game in Big Ten action. As coached Rich Rodriguez correctly pointed out after recent 38-36 loss to Purdue, “You score 36 points you ought to be able to win it.”

This is the one contest on the schedule that can heal some Michigan wounds and though Ohio State is still going to the Rose Bowl on January 1, the Wolverines would take away satisfaction in knowing they made Ohio State co-champions of the conference, instead of outright winners. The issue for Michigan is how to change, since they are 1-9 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years losing by 14.1 points per contest.

Ohio State is on 7-1 and 6-2 ATS run against Michigan in the “Big Game” and has held the Wolverines to seven or less points in consecutive games for the first time in 54 years.

3DW Line – Ohio State by 15

North Carolina (+3.5, 38.5) at Boston College 12:00E ESPN2

Boston College will be going to a bowl game somewhere this season, but before they do, their preference would be to play in third consecutive ACC championship contest. The Eagles could have incurred a tumultuous campaign, but head coach Frank Spaziani brought stability to the program this season and for the most part it has been business as usual for Boston College (7-3, 6-2-1 ATS). Quarterback Dave Shinskie is a freshman in name only, after spending six seasons in the Minnesota Twins farm system. He added life to a stale offense and wide receiver Rich Gunnell will leave the school at or near the top of numerous B.C. pass catching records. Boston College has regained their home field edge this season, with 6-0 and 5-0 ATS mark. In conference action the last 11 years, the Eagles are 27-12 ATS.

This year has not produced the numbers many thought possible in Butch Davis’ third season, but don’t blame the defense. The entire year, this group has been in the Top 15 in several defensive categories and realistically has only had one bad half which came against Florida State in 30-27 loss. What has been North Carolina’s (7-3, 5-4 ATS) strength is ability to get off the field, with opposing teams converting on just over 30 percent on third down, among the best in the nation. The offense has been plagued by injuries and new receivers learning to blend with quarterback T.J. Yates. The Tar Heels are 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record the last three years.

This is North Carolina’s first ever trip to Chestnut Hill and they are 13-8 ATS on the November road. Boston College is 9-2 ATS in home games over the last two seasons and 7-3 ATS in last home contest over the past 10 years.

3DW Line – Boston College by 1.5

LSU (+4.5, 42.5) at Mississippi 3:30E CBS

This was supposed to be a portentous conflict back in August, but Alabama killed that notion and other SEC losses took care of it living up to preseason hype. That doesn’t mean it won’t hold value, since these two squads came in with high hopes and want to finish the regular season proudly. The goal for LSU (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) is simple, win 10 games, which would be the fourth such occurrence under coach Les Miles in the last five years. The Tigers have several players sucking it up and playing hurt. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is playing with ankle issues and a number of linemen on either side of the ball are limping or playing thru the pain. Look for coach Miles to dial up the pressure on Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who has not reacted well in the face of adversity. The Tigers will most likely walk up a safety to take away Rebels run game, to force obvious passing situations. Check this number out, LSU is 1-12-3 ATS in the SEC off a non-conference tilt.

This is Mississippi’s last home game of the season and they would like to put away previous disappointments. This would ideal situation for Snead to regain confidence and get ready for rivalry game with Mississippi State next week. Snead’s lack of confidence has made him reluctant decision-maker, which has led to interceptions or trying to steer the ball to receivers, instead of playing instinctively. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Brandon Bolden have been good behind a spotty offensive line, especially at tackle. The Rebels (7-3, 6-3 ATS) are 10-5 ATS vs. ranked teams at home.

Ole Miss has been the spread winner 10 of last 12 games played against LSU.

3DW Line – Mississippi by 4.5

Virginia (+21, 44.5) at Clemson 3:30E ABC/GP

Since being upset by Maryland 24-21 as 12.5-point road favorites, the Clemson Tigers (7-3, 7-2 ATS) have rattled off five consecutive wins and are still in the hunt for a first ACC Atlantic Division crown. The Tigers revival has been about playing more complete football games. In the losses against the Terps and Georgia Tech, they appeared like many Clemson teams before them, unfocused and not ready to play. Though they played less than perfect games against conference partners Miami and Florida State, they kept the down time to a minimum and made the right plays when it counted most. Clemson also has skill position players that are a threat to score from anywhere. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Jacoby Ford are a threat to score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has alternated spread wins and losses the last 10 games before rivalry game with South Carolina and they beat Virginia last year 13-3 as two-point favorites. Oh boy!

Virginia (3-7, 4-4-1 ATS) is relegated to third losing season in four years, which could spell the end of nine years of Al Groh as coach in Charlottesville. After averaging in the upper 20’s in points scored for a number of years, the Cavaliers have been at 20 or below in their losing seasons. (19.8 in 2009) This year Groh tried to install spread offense run by offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon, but wasn’t happy with results and went back to pro-style, which left the team without an offensive identity and explains ranking 118th in total offense. Virginia is 18-33 ATS in road games in the second half of the season.

Virginia is 8-36-1 all-time against Clemson; however the underdog is on 12-4 ATS run.

3DW Line – Clemson by 20.5

Kansas State (+16.5, 44.5) at Nebraska 7:45E ESPN

The rehiring of Bill Snyder at Kansas State coach was met with tremendous skepticism, as many figured his run had ended after finishing below .500 in 2004 and 2005. The program did not improve under Ron Prince and Snyder was thought to be a good go-between until a younger and more energetic coach could be hired in Manhattan. An unexpected development occurred along the way. The Wildcats started playing more disciplined football than what was seen in recent years, which helped reduce mistakes. With the Big 12 North full of average teams, Kansas State (6-5, 6-4 ATS) can potentially win the division with the upset of Nebraska. The offensive line came together and running back Daniel Thomas has been putting the hurt on opposing tacklers, while the ‘Cats play keep away with the pigskin. K-State comes into this meaningful confrontation 9-1 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points under coach Snyder since 1992.

The best description of Nebraska (7-3 SU&ATS) football in 2009 style is “they find a way”. It ends up that phrase has a dual meaning. Against Iowa State and Virginia Tech, a -10 turnover margin sealed a pair of losses. However, despite seven first downs and 180 yards of offense against Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers picked off five Sooners passes in 10-3 upset in Lincoln. Take away the Texas Tech misstep; Nebraska defenders have earned back the name “Blackshirts”, holding nine other opponents to 17 points or less. Inconsistent quarterback play has stalled the offense, placing dependence on junior RB Roy Helu to carry the load. The Huskers are 8-3 in home finales, but only 3-8 ATS.

If you haven’t seen Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, make a point, he’s a shredder. These teams have played every year since 1922 and K-State in 6-3 ATS the last nine. The favorite is 5-2 ATS since 2002.

3DW Line – Nebraska by 14

Oregon (-6, 60) at Arizona 8:00E ABC/GP

Over most of this decade, the amount of intrigue in the Pacific 10 this time of year has been who is going to win the conference in basketball, as USC has held a stranglehold on this league. But with the Trojans being knocked out and Oregon slipping at Stanford two weeks ago, an un-thought of matchup like this breathes life into the league.

Let’s start with trivia question, what Pac-10 team has never won the conference and played in Rose Bowl? If you answered Arizona, you are a sage college football fan. Coach Mike Stoops has had the wolves at his doorstep the last couple of years, yet somehow his team pulls an upset late and plays well enough down the stretch. This season the Wildcats didn’t wait as long to get started and are 6-3 and 4-5 ATS. The Arizona defense has been troubled by teams that can move the ball, but the insertion of Nick Foles at quarterback has kept the ‘Cats in every game. The Tucson troops are just 3-12 ATS in last home game.

Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) rebounded from Stanford debacle in dumping the other state of Arizona university last week 44-21. The Ducks still control their own destiny with two more wins to become Pac-10 champs for the first time since 2001 and they haven’t been part of the Rose Bowl pageantry since the 1994 season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the offense should have too much speed for Arizona defense, but Wildcats stadium is every bit as intimidating as Autzen Stadium when the joint is packed, which should help their defense.

Despite the Ducks defense having a number of very good games, they are better at running and chasing and not facing power football. Oregon is 13-5 and 12-6 ATS against Zona, yet is 1-3 ATS in last four.

3DW Line – Oregon by 5

Kansas (+27.5, 57.5) at Texas 8:00E ABC/GP

A combination of factors has led to a disappointing campaign for Kansas QB Todd Reesing. A less talented squad, especially on defense, coupled with having to play the stronger contingent from the Big 12 South, has led to 1-5 and 0-6 ATS mark in the conference. Like a lot of Big 12 signal callers coming off banner seasons, Reesing hasn’t been able to put it together. A bothersome groin injury and the lack of running game has allowed defenses to play deep zones and take away quick strike offense that was prevalent two years ago in Orange Bowl season. On defense; not enough size, speed or quickness. Jayhawks defensive coaches have played conservative to force opponents to work the length of the field and blitzed like madmen to force negative plays. Nothing much has worked over a complete contest. Unlike the hoops squad, Kansas (5-5, 2-7 ATS) is 1-5 ATS vs. Top 10 teams.

Texas (10-0, 4-5-1 ATS) has three more games to win before presumed date with SEC champion for the national championship. The way the season has worked out, next week’s rivalry battle at Texas A&M might be the most difficult. One aspect coach Mack Brown would like to repair in the last few games is his players’ mental outlook. When the opposing team is a perceived threat, Texas players have been ready since the first kickoff; however in many other contests in which the Horns were Texas-sized favorites, the wakeup call often came in the second quarter or later, before dominating. Texas is 13-3 ATS in home finales and Colt McCoy could win the Heisman with three outstanding performances.

Kansas hasn’t beaten Texas since 1938, though only seven games have been played with the Jayhawks 0-7 and 1-6 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 31

Favorites on Collision Course in Midwest?

In downtown Indianapolis, most people there and around the country are expecting a battle of the top two seeds Sunday afternoon. Both Louisville and Michigan State were challenged in the second round and each passed at crunch time to advance. In order for them to hook-up, the Cardinals and Spartans must navigate a treacherous foe that could destroy what many people was an inevitable matchup.

(1) Louisville vs (12) Arizona

Despite being the overall number one seed and holder of a dozen straight wins, coach Rick Pitino saw disturbing trends very similar to what plagued his squad in December. Louisville mastered Morehead State 74-54 as 21.5-point favorites, however led by just two at the half. The Cardinals built significant leads over Siena a couple of times, yet flittered away both and they didn’t put away the Saints until the last few possessions.

Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels have been like the stock market in recent weeks, up one day and down the next. Only Terrence Williams has been consistent and he has been brilliant in leading his team. Preston Knowles and Andre McGee must do a better job shooting the ball, not settling for three-point shots like they did in the first two games. This pair has to be more aggressive in getting to the basket, which could open up teammates for better shots. Louisville (30-5, 21-14 ATS) has to be prepared to start fast and is 21-10 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

If the Cards take their time, they could be chasing Arizona (21-13, 19-14-1 ATS) all day. The Wildcats have three exceptionally talented players and this trio has started fast in both victories. Guard Nic Wise and pushed the ball at every opportunity, Chase Budinger has made long shots as expected, but has attacked the rim like LeBron James with big-time flushes that have kept his teammates fired up. Center Jordan Hill has picked his spots, scoring when called upon and having a number of nice assists.

Arizona is playing with a real hunger and being the 12th seed is just having fun. Betjamica.com has the ‘Cats on the receiving end of nine-points, with the total having risen to 139. They are 22-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game.

Should Louisville be trusted, history suggests maybe, as favorites of seven or more points are 29-1 SU with .500 spread record in the round of Sweet 16. A 12th seed has never beaten a No.1 in 15 prior meetings and is 6-9 ATS.

(2) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State

This Midwestern matchup is a revenge game for Kansas, who lost to Michigan State 75-62 as 6.5-point road underdogs on January 10. The Jayhawks (27-7, 20-8-1 ATS) have grown as the young players matured and become more reliable. The two rocks have to be guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich. The Kansas point guard can get hotter than soup left in the microwave too long and blister opposing teams. His stocky build allows him to get to the rim the same as a much taller player. Aldrich continually works on all aspects of his game and is going to make a very nice living at the next level.

Bill Self’s club has been able to stay under the radar all season, with oddsmakers never quite figuring them out. They have won and covered both games in the tournament; including demolishing Dayton 60-43 and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
With Kansas a much better team than what Michigan State (28-6, 17-13-1 ATS) saw previously, the Spartans are different also. Kalin Lucas was just hitting his stride and improved dramatically to be named Big Ten player of the year. Goran Suton was still rounding into form from injury and though he had a poor shooting game against USC, he was a huge part in the Trojans Taj Gibson being a non-factor in last contest. Raymar Morgan isn’t all the way back from mono, however more glimpses are shown each game of him coming back for a Spartans team that is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last two seasons.

This 2 vs 3 contest opened as a Pick, with bettors making Michigan State a 1.5-point favorite. Two seeds are 19-9 in these matchups, covering 16 times. Michigan State is 28-3 and 15-12-1 ATS when winning the battle on the glass, and if they neutralize Aldrich, the Spartans should be great position to triumph.

Don’t look for this to be a white elephant, with two very well coached teams.

Tight Contests to Test Bettors Survival Instincts

Most upsets occur in the games that are in the lower price ranges. Often times these are not dramatic upsets, unless the higher seed is blown out. These types of matchups usually offer contrasting styles and make for entertaining games. Six games make the list for Friday and here is the rundown.

Can somebody please tell me why Wisconsin has chance against Florida State? Its common knowledge the Badgers turns the ball over about as often as its 80 degrees in March in Madison and coach Bo Ryan is a demanding perfectionist, but seriously, beat an athletically gifted team like Florida State? Wisconsin looks like plow-horses compared to the Seminoles who are 7-1 ATS after one or more losses this season. Toney Douglas can, as Marv Albert would say, “Score from way downtown”. I’ll bend a little that Wisconsin can make opposing teams look like they are stuck in mud and forward Marcus Landry is pretty good. FSU is favored by 2.5-points at Betjamica.com and they are 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. All over garnet and gold.

Staying in the same red/burgundy color tones, Boston College and USC is a descent ballgame. That DeMar DeRozan is a sick talent for a freshman for the Trojans and he better come back to L.A. since he’s about as ready for the pros as I am to by Phil Jackson’s newest assistant coach. Taj Gibson is real consistent, yet I wonder if coach Tim Floyd is playing to the skills of the talent on hand? USC looks a whole lot better running, than in half court sets. They are 2.5-point favorite and are 9-1 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons. Boston College starts four sophomores and would not be in the tournament except for senior Tyrese Rice. This matchup would look to favor USC, but the Eagles run plays just outside the lane, with multiple screens, which is really frustrating to guard. Coach Al Skinner has had pretty good luck in games after the regular season is up, I’ll back the birds who have covered all six tournament games this year.

Normally I prefer defensive teams in close games, not this time however, in backing Siena. The only thing these players know about defense is using Right Guard, giving up 70 points a game. Offensively, its go time when the Saints have the ball and Kenny Hasbrouck is explosive scorer for a team that 16-7 ATS as an underdog. Ohio State has special player in Evan Turner on what is a young team. Backing the more veteran club catching the three points, who has been here before in Siena.

All week it’s been, “Arizona has NBA talent and got a new lease on life, look for them to beat Utah”. My question is why? All this NBA talent lost 13 games, including 10 of 15 in road uniforms (7-8 ATS). I’ve seen Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill play enough times to understand their abilities and Nic Wise is solid, even at 5’11 (maybe), but the other two starters have names Kyle and Zane, and neither can score. Utah won the Mountain West and is 12-5 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season, with Lawrence Borha leading an unwavering trio of guards. Luka Drca may not be easy to say, but he’s a good passer and Carlon Brown is a versatile performer. The big fella in the middle is Luke Nevill and though he’s closer to Shawn Bradley than Dwight Howard athletically, he’s effective in his own way. The Utes are now favored by 1.5-points and have covered last four when the chosen team by bettors in that role. Book it.

I wish I had a clue on Tennessee. They are the hardest team to figure in my opinion of the 65 that started out. Center Wayne Chism thinks he Stephen Curry, chucking up three’s like he’s a guard at 6’9, 245. The Vols backcourt causes as many problems as it does positive things. Thank goodness for Tyler Smith or Bruce Pearl’s orange sportcoat might be considered gaudy. They are matched against Oklahoma State and many top D-1 women’s team has as much height as the Cowboys. They play four guards and have to run and shoot to average 81.1 points a game and try like heck on defense. Though Tennessee is 19-37 ATS when playing on a neutral court, experience makes the difference against Okie State who hasn’t been here since 2005.

What did Marquette and Utah State do wrong to have to start at 10:30 AM Boise time? At least the winner still has the rest of the day to enjoy the Boise landscape. Marquette isn’t the same team without Dominic James. I really like Jerel McNeal, and Lazar Hayward gets the most out of being a 6’6 power forward. The Golden Eagles are 4.5-point favorite and 16-5 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or less points. Utah State is coached by Stew Morrill, who has more set plays than Mike Martz has passing formations. The Aggies ALWAYS work for good shots and are incredibly patient on offense. Forward Jimmy Wilkinson is their best player and they shoot 49.8 percent from the field. Utah State is 22-10 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game, because they make teams play at there more comfortable pace. Hard game to call, lean with Utah State.

This article was written by Red Wydley.

Onward-Ho to Thursday Wagering

What a weird night in college basketball as almost none of the so-called bubble teams secured a victory including Miami-Fl, which gave us a 2-2 day. One team in really jeopardy of having the longest streak of tournament appearances snapped is the Arizona Wildcats and they are in a must win weekend along with playing well next week in Pac-10 tourney and are featured as the Top Trend. No outstanding systems in basketball today, but a 25-5 winner in the NHL goes for Thursday. Sal returns and believes he has the key winner in tonight’s important SEC East showdown. Good Luck.

Free Hockey System-1) PLAY ON road favorites against the money line like the N.Y. Rangers, after failing to cover four of their last five, against opponent having won two of their last three contests. This money line system is 83.3 percent with 25-5 record.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Arizona Wildcats are 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60 to 80 percent) this season.

Free Basketball Selection -3) Sal of the Left Coast Connection has nailed 60.7 percent of his last 79 college basketball plays and is playing South Carolina at home.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Mid-Season College Hoops Report Card

Students are coming back after holiday break. Holiday Tournaments are over with. And the non-conference schedules are wrapping up. Let’s take a gander at the landscape of college basketball this first week of January, 2009.

There are only four (make it three) undefeated teams left with the recent defeat of the Connecticut Huskies at the hands of Pittsburgh and Boston College slaying North Carolina on the Tar Heels’ home court. Sitting with 14 wins against zero losses are the Redbirds of Illinois State (until last night) and the Clemson Tigers. Undefeated Pitt and Wake Forest both have notched 13 wins.

At the complete other end of the spectrum we have a handful of regularly-lined teams with only one win: The West Coast Conference’s Loyola Marymount, Sacramento State from the Big Sky, the Southern Conference’s UNC-Greensboro, and two teams from the Mid-American Conference, Toledo and Eastern Michigan.

The undefeated teams are covering the point spread at a 64.9% clip while the only one-game winners are cashing tickets 28.6% of the time.

Teams who are making supporters money at the betting window are 7-1 ATS Auburn, 12-2 Niagara, 9-2-1 California, Arkansas State at 9-2, and Illinois State with an 8-2 record against the number. Squads that are money burners for their backers are three from the Southern Conference, 1-8 ATS UNC-Greensboro, the 1-6 Paladins of Furman, and the Elon Phoenix checking in at 1-5 beating the point spread. Kent and Toledo, both at 2-8 ATS, aren’t making the MAC very proud.

Let’s look more in detail at a few teams and what we can expect from them.

Underachievers

Louisville started out ranked #3 in the nation. The Cardinals lost on neutral courts to Sun Belt Conference Western Kentucky and to Minnesota. UNLV went on the road last week with their top player injured and beat Louisville. The Cards are playing very good defense but their offensive efficiency is sub-par. This is more glaring when you realize they have played a schedule full of weak defensive teams, with the exclusion of UNLV and Kentucky. Shooting 66.1% from the free-throw stripe leaves a lot of points on the court. Big man Fr. Samardo Samuels has to play more above the rim and draw more fouls. Terrence Williams has slightly improved his shooting from a miserable previous season, but he is only shooting 41.1% on 2-pointers and 29.8% on 3’s. Williams takes the most shots on the team but has a very poor offensive efficiency rating of 99.8. The starter with the best OE rating, Jerry Smith, 121.7, takes the fewest shots of any of the top seven in rotation. Last year Louisville started slowly at 5-3 but came on strong to finish at 27-9. The lack of offense has helped Louisville to a 3-7 O/U mark.

Arizona can play like a top ten team or one that is a conference bottom feeder. They are 7-1 at home with the lone loss being by one-point to a quality UAB team. But, the Wildcats are 0-4 on the road with pathetic offensive showings in their last three away tilts. Turnovers have been a tremendous problem on the road, also. A lack of depth does not help but three high-quality starters in Nic Wise, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill all have high-NBA potential with Hill being a lottery pick. Zona is in the bottom ten in the nation in the ratio of three-point field goals attempted to two-pointers. When there isn’t much of a threat from outside, the defense can sag inside. What is odd is the Wildcats rank 14th in 3-point shooting at 40.0%. You would think more 3’s would be going up with such a success rate. This week’s home games against the Oregon schools will help unravel the Arizona mystery. Arizona is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite.

Are They for Real?LSU has a gaudy 13-1 record (until last night) which is deceptive as they have only played five lined games and have played the softest schedule in the nation out of 344 D-1 schools. Besides a couple of Sun Belt teams and a Big West squad, the Tigers have played two BCS schools. They lost in their only venture away from home, a semi-away game in Houston to Texas A&M. They beat a Washington State team by 12 points with 13 steals as they came from seven points down going on a 24-5 run to finish the game. A good test comes January 6th at Utah just five days before LSU opens conference play against division-rival Alabama. Solid play from Sr. G Garrett Temple and Fr. G Bo Spencer have led the Tigers.

Alabama is not much higher on strength of schedule holding down a #339 rank. PG Ronald Steele is back after missing last year due to knee injuries and is regaining his confidence and getting closer to his previous form that made him one of the top pg’s in America. McDonald’s All-American 6-9 JaMychal Green is learning and improving weekly. While the Tide went to the Maui Invitational and their game against D-2 host Chaminade technically counts as an away game, Bama hasn’t played a true road game yet. Warning signs include one of the ten worst assist to field goals made ratio (means a lot of dribbling and little passing), the 209th ranked effective fg%, a 67.6% FT%, and a poor rate in allowing opponents offensive rebounds. And remember, these numbers are put up at home, or a neutral court, against a very weak schedule. Bama appears to be a team to bet against.

The Real Deal

How many years has Clemson started out looking like a contender until January hits and then they crumble. In 2005 they start out 9-3 then go on a 7-13 run to end the season. A 12-2 start the next year saw a 7-11 finish. The most promising was the 2007 season when Clemson went 17-0 followed by a 4-10 streak. Something woke the Tigers up as they did make it to the NIT Finals finishing second. Another 12-2 beginning last season was followed by more promise then in the preceding years, a 12-8 finish which included a one-game NIT appearance. This year’s 14-0 run doesn’t appear to be a fluke as Clemson ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency with three players in the top 200 in the nation. Big man Trevor Booker is greatly improved and is blocking shots and getting offensive rebounds while not getting into the same foul trouble he did last year. They open their ACC schedule at home against NC State Jan. 10 and then have an early showdown against currently undefeated Wake Forest. I’m looking for opportunities to play on Clemson.

The Mid-Major to Watch Out For

Illinois State is on a tear. They have just demolished two MVC title-contenders, Creighton and Evansville, and next travel to Bradley Jan. 6, a school with a very good home-court advantage. The Redbirds haven't won in Peoria since 2002. If they win there, they have one main spot they could trip up on, playing at Drake Feb. 15, before a rematch at Creighton in their last regular season contest, Feb. 28. ISU is winning through rebounding, they’ve only been outrebounded in one game, and defense, leading the MVC in defensive FG shooting at 40.4%. They are only giving up 62.8 ppg, slightly higher than last year’s 59.3 when they ranked 11th in the country. Last year ISU was 20-1 SU when holding opponents to less that 65 points. A candidate for MVC Player of the Year, 6-3 G Osiris Eldridge is leading the team with 15.9 ppg while hitting 40.4% behind the arc. Oregon transfer 6-5 G Champ Oguchi has been superb averaging 15.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and 1.7 apg. He is hitting 38.8% of his 3’s and 83.6% from the charity stripe and he and Eldridge are the leading scoring duo in the MVC.

Getting Better and Dangerous

Kansas has five new starters. Sherron Collins is having a monster season and Cole Aldrich is turning into one of the premier big men around. Stud JUCO transfer Mario Little just saw first action off of injury.

UCLA doesn’t have the inside scoring presence as in the past but they still are playing exceptional defense ranking 11th in the nation in steal percentage. Alfred Aboya and James Keefe are doing well on the offensive boards while Michael Roll and Darren Collison can light it up with both hitting over 50% from 3-point range.

These are just a few teams that stand out. A team’s performance in their non-conference schedule has such variables as the level of competition faced, did they improve as the season progressed, have they played many, or even any, true road games. With so many teams to wager on, it pays to differentiate between contenders and pretenders.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority makes another appearance.