Red Sox in "must" win over New York

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are two polarizing teams to the general public. A lot of baseball fans complain these teams are on TV all the time and the networks refute the argument by showing the number of eyeballs watching baseball are up significantly when these two rivals are on the flat screen, especially when they face one another.

I have no allegiance to either team, since both are overpriced from betting perspective. Yet today is perfect example why people outside the East Coast quickly tire hearing about these two teams.

Early this morning I opened my computer and on MSN, I read this screaming headline - Yankees bullpen still an enigma.

I thought about that for nanosecond and realized what struck me, the word “still”. Would that be the “still” from last year when Joe Girardi expertly put together a combination of pitchers in the second half of the season that went on to win the World Series for the 27th time for the Yankees or the “still” where this 2010 contingent stood after TWO games with 160 more yet to be played.

I’m quite sure Jon Paul Morosi, the national MLB writer for FOXSports.com is a very good baseball writer with deep insights into the game and a big part of his job is to write articles that will bring thousands of readers so Fox can charge higher rates for advertising, but my god to have diatribe about why New York is having eighth inning issues, when the paint is still wet on a new season border is ridiculous.

When hordes of reporters follow these teams around on a daily basis and the national press is in town, everybody has to have an angle.

Trying to jump into the spirit of the moment, I made up my own headline to be attention grabber for tonight’s televised conflict on ESPN2.

Let’s skip the drama and get to the action OK?

John Lackey makes first start as a Boston pitcher with altered bank account. I’ve thought Lackey has been overrated for the last few years, with the Angels always selling this bulldog image of him, but all I see is 5-8 record with 4.43 ERA against the pinstripes (flat gray for tonight), not exactly legendary. Ruff, ruff or whatever bulldogs do.

Lackey will face Andy Pettitte, who is second among active Major League pitchers with 229 wins and is 19-9 with 4.05 ERA against the BoSox since 1997.

I checked with DiamondSportsbook.com and found Boston as -140 favorites and the total is Under 10, after opening at Over 10. Going thru the StatFox Foxsheets found where Pettitte and the Yankees are 10-0 Under in April the last couple of years. The Yanks have won last seven games after scoring five or more runs and the left-hander is on the mound.

I also found where Boston is 44-13 at Fenway when the total is 10 or higher and 20-8-1 Over when a -150 favorite or less.

Paul Schrieber is the home plate umpire and is it coincidence New York is 8-2 when he’s behind the dish?

Here’s my advice, enjoy the game, I hope you have the right side or total and don’t make a bigger deal about than what it is. For real importance get back to me when they meet the first weekend in August.

Written by freelance writer Red Wydley.

NIT Quarterfinals Matchups

Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple?

Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17-3 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites. In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.

Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12-1 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.

Dayton (21-12, 15-15-1 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17-2 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.

Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.

Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.

Tuesday's bids earned for Big Dance

A trio of invites will be doled out on Tuesday evening for three more conference championships. All three winners are guaranteed spots, however those on the bubble have a rooting interesting in Butler winning, since a Wright State upset in the Horizon League means one fewer spot for them, with the Bulldogs already assured of being invited to the party. Here are the three wagering previews.

Horizon League Championship 9:00E ESPN

Regular season champion Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS) was dumped in last year Horizon championship game by Cleveland State and went on to lose to LSU in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are focused on not seeing history repeat itself.

Butler has yet to lose in league play with 19-0 record (7-12 ATS) and wants to close the deal. “It’s a little bit of unfinished business - you feel like that when you get all that way and then you don’t finish the deal,” Bulldogs forward Matt Howard said. “It’s the same thing this year. We’re focused, we want to win. We don’t feel comfortable with where we are.” The Bulldogs have won 19 in a row, but are 7-14 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season.

Wright State (20-11, 11-15-3 ATS) ended up being the second place team in the Horizon with 12-6 regular season mark. The Blue Raiders demolished Detroit 69-50 in their only game in this tournament. Wright State has a strong backcourt with Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown averaging over 27 points per game, however they have lost six straight to Butler (2-4 ATS).
Butler is a seven-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse according to Bookmaker.com and they are 14-0 SU (5-9 ATS) in their own building this season. Wright State is 3-11 ATS in road lined games this season; however they are 9-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.

Sun Belt Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A number of conference tournaments have gone according to form and the Sun Belt is another with the top two seeds matching up. Troy (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) is the No.1 seed and played like it last night winning 54-48, being a surprising underdog five-point underdog to No. 4 Western Kentucky. The Trojans have four players averaging double digits led by Brandon Hazzard’s 16.6 points per game. Troy averages 75.5 points a contest and is 5-0-1 ATS in last six outings.

North Texas (23-8, 16-7-1 ATS) can also change the numbers on the scoreboard quickly, totaling 74.5 PPG and they have four players of their own that average 10 or more points a contest. The Mean Green are 14-6 ATS against conference foes and are 11-6 and 9-5-1 ATS away from Denton.

North Texas won and covered at Troy 75-72 as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, however the teams have split four games the last couple of years. Both squads have winning spread records at neutral site locations, with the Mean Green exceptional at 17-5 ATS and oddsmakers have this going to the wire at a Pick.

Summit League Championship 9:00E ESPN2

The third championship conflict of the night also features a 1 vs. 2 matchup. Regular season champ Oakland (25-8, 5-8 ATS) rolls into the title game on a 10-game winning streak, having won and covered both Summit tourney games. The Golden Grizzlies have four different players that are capable scorers, each scoring 10 or more points, however their best player is center Keith Benson, averaging 17.3 PPG and 10.3 rebounds. Guard Johnathon Jones hands out 6.4 assists per game, while averaging over 12 PPG. Oakland is 12-7 SU away from home.

No.2 IUPUI (24-9, 8-6 ATS) has three individuals that score as well as any trio in the country. Robert Glenn, Alex Young and Leroy Nobles average 51.3 points a contest, with each providing a different skill that limits what opposing teams can do to shutdown at least one of them off. The Jaguars have a six game winning streak themselves and are 13-7 SU on the road.

These teams split a pair of games in 2010 and Oakland holds the all-time edge 19-14. Oakland made the tournament in 2005 and has lost twice in the Summit championship game, including last year. IUPUI won the tournament in 2003 and has also lost two times in the league title tilt. The opening number on this matchup is a Pick.

Four Conference titles on the line Monday night

Tonight, the soon to be assembled field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament will add four more teams with automatic bids, as four conferences will play their championship games in televised tilts. While some of these teams don’t register immediately for the common fan, the sharp sports bettor has a vast knowledge of all eight competing teams and will want to take notes of the winner of each championship and determine if they any chance of pulling a first round upset, if so designated.

West Coast Championship 9:00E ESPN

The most recognizable squad playing tonight is Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS). The Bulldogs are going to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome this evening and are making their 12 consecutive appearance in the WCC championship, attempting to knock down their 10th title in that span. Gonzaga has three very good players, all with NBA-type ability. Matt Bouldin and Duke’s Jon Scheyer are the most complete guards in the country, able to score or set up teammate for basket seemingly at will.

“We come into this every year and want to win it,” said Bouldin, the conference player of the year. “We want to be playing our best game going into the NCAA tournament. Winning this thing is everything.”

Running mate Steve Gray also has all-around skills in the backcourt and the player that helped put Gonzaga back in the Top 25 despite heavy personnel losses is freshman Elias Harris, who has 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds in two wins over St. Mary’s. Gonzaga has covered eight straight against teams with winning record.

The Gaels (25-5) work is not done; with most knowledgeable experts with how the field is chosen believing St. Mary’s has to win to be in. If left up to sports bettors, the Gaels would already be in with their ultra-profitable 19-9-1 ATS record. However their wins are largely unimpressive and two of their losses have to Gonzaga by scores of 7 and 19, failing to cover either time. St. Mary’s knows center Omar Samhan will deliver, averaging 26.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, however points from the backcourt is paramount and getting Ben Allen in scoring mode. The Gaels are 18-0 SU when the Aussie reaches double figures and he’s averaged just 7.5 points in two outings.

Gonzaga is the betting choice at DiamondSportsbook.com, favored by 3.5-points with total of 146. Like usual, it will be difficult to bet against the Zags, as favorites are 59-30 ATS in this tourney since 1998, including 4-2 ATS this year. St. Mary’s needs prayers, since they are 0-8 ATS as neutral site underdogs.

Colonial Athletic Championship 7:00E ESPN

The CAA went more according to form than expected with regular season champion Old Dominion (25-8, 12-16-1 ATS) facing William and Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS). The top-seeded Monarchs almost didn’t make this destination, forced to double overtime by Virginia Commonwealth yesterday, escaping 73-69 as two point favorites. Gerald Lee’s 26 points and Ben Finney’s huge three-point with 67 seconds left in the second overtime was the deciding edge. ODU has covered six of last eight as chalk.

William and Mary is the fifth seed and has had two close calls, narrowly knocking off James Madison in first game and squeaking by Northeastern 47-45 on Sunday as five point underdogs. The Tribe is 12-6 and 11-6 ATS away from home, but has lost both meetings to ODU. William and Mary is seeking first ever NCAA bid and will have to shoot well and block-out on the boards, since they lack the athleticism to go up and down with Old Dominion. They are 16-5 ATS as underdogs.

The Monarchs are favored by nine-points and the favorite has won this event nine straight times with 6-2-1 ATS record. Before believing Old Dominion is automatic, consider their 3-13 ATS record at neutral sites.

MAAC Championship 7:00E ESPN2

A few of the lower seeds pulled off upsets in the early rounds, but once the semi-finals began, the cream rose to the top. Siena (26-6, 16-12-2 ATS) was once again the league champion and takes on the club that finished right behind them in the standings, Fairfield (22-9, 14-11 ATS). The Saints will enjoy a decided advantage playing on their home floor at Times Union Center, where they are 14-0 (5-6-1 ATS) this season. Siena is making their fourth straight trip to the title games and has won each of the last two years. Seniors Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin are the bell-cows for the Saints who are 7-3 ATS facing a club with a winning record.

Fairfield showed the oddsmakers they deserved more respect, taking down Niagara 69-63 as 1.5-point underdogs yesterday, in spite of being higher seed. The Stags offense is spearheaded by Derek Needham and Anthony Johnson and they will have to come up big since Fairfield has lost twice to Siena this campaign. The Stags did cover the number once in their matchups and is 9-4 ATS on the road this season.

Fairfield is catching eight points, with total of 138 and underdogs of 4.5 or more points are 5-43 and 19-28-1 ATS in this tourney. The road team is 8-1 ATS in previous nine tries.

Southern Championship 9:00E ESPN2

There will be a new champion in the Southern Conference with the departure of Stephen Curry from Davidson. It seem fitting it should end this way as division kings Wofford (25-8, 15-11-2 ATS) and Appalachian State (22-11, 17-8 ATS) do battle. This is Wofford’s first ever appearance in the championship game and they come in riding a 12-game winning streak (5-5-2 ATS). Noah Dahlman leads the Terriers at 17 points per game and if reserve Terry Martin can drain 17 points off the bench like he did in the semis, Wofford has a real opportunity to cover the four-point favorite role they have been given.

Appalachian State is out to win their first SoCon crown since 2000. The Mountaineers are paced by leading scorer Donald Sims and they might need a similar eruption from Kelly Brand, who scored a career-high 37 points last evening against the College of Charleston, converting five of six three-point shots.

Appalachian State is on a real spread roll with 10-1 ATS mark in last 11 and is 104 ATS away from home.

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

CBB Giants in Action Thursday

Duke and Kentucky are both involved in attempting to be on the top line where the four seeds of the NCAA Tournament will reside in just over two weeks and each will look to continue to make sure they are in the conversation, being in action on Thursday night on ESPN2. Take a gander at each team and see if you believe they belong as a top seed and review the situation to see if you think they are play on team.

Tulsa at Duke 7:00E

The last several years, coach Mike Krzyzewski has scheduled one of these non-conference games in February with two things in mind. One, to break up the strain of playing in the ACC and also give his players a chance to face an average to better than average team, typically fighting to earn a NCAA berth. This current collection of Blue Devils’ players has never won a ACC title and that is foremost on their minds, leading Maryland by a game, nonetheless this great preparation taking on unknown opponent as this club is starting to gel, having won six straight and eight of nine (5-3-1 ATS).

Coach K knows what he’s going to get from his Big Three (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler) and recently he’s been working on putting certain players like Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers in more comfortable positions on the floor for them to score. Duke (23-4, 16-9-1 ATS) is 15-0 and 10-4 ATS at home this season.

With Memphis presumably down at the start of the year, Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) believed this might be their opportunity to take charge of Conference USA, with its two senior leaders. Unfortunately the rest of the league has not cooperated and the Golden Hurricane is distant fifth in the league, having lost four of last five to teams that are ahead of them in the standings. Coach Doug Wojcik has never been able to develop a bench and possibly the heavy minutes the starters are playing is taking a toll. Tulsa’s two best players are guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan, who’s really blossomed into a very good offensive player. Tulsa has not covered a spread since Jan. 16, a span of 10 games.

Bookmaker.com has Duke as 18-point favorites and they are 12-2 and 8-5 ATS in non-conference action. The Blue Devils are 13-1 and 9-3-1 ATS with three or more days off. Tulsa is 0-7-1 ATS taking on a team with winning record and is 4-10 ATS off a spread loss, including eight failures in a row.

South Carolina at Kentucky 9:00E

The Wildcats will seek revenge for their lone defeat this season at the hands of the Gamecocks. In the 68-62 loss, Kentucky was “Downey-ized” by Devan Downey, who torched them for 30 points. One important element from the earlier matchup that played a key role was the undersized South Carolina squad held a +4 rebounding edge. Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) no doubt will seek redemption and is 13-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite.

Since their moment of the year, South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) has returned to being what they are, a slightly above average squad with limited ability in the paint and dependent on Downey to score and distribute the ball to others. The Gamecocks have shriveled up as visitors with 1-8 and 2-7 ATS record away from Columbia. South Carolina will need an even better performance to sweep Kentucky, but they are 3-12 ATS vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots this season.

Big Blue is 11-1 and 8-4 ATS against South Carolina in Lexington, with last seven contests going OVER the number and they are a solid 16.5-point favorite to avenge loss.

Learn from the power of the Bracket Buster

This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.

Friday, Feb.19

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (-3, 113) 7:00E ESPN2

Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.

Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however he’s been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6’9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.

Saturday, Feb. 20

Siena at Butler (-7.5, 141) 11:00E ESPN2

Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.

It’s a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butler’s seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.

Louisiana Tech at Northeastern (-8.5, 135) 1:00E ESPN2

If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6’7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and they’ve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.

The old story of “you don’t learn anything by losing” doesn’t apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.

New Mexico State at Pacific (-5, 140.5)10:00E ESPNU

It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.

This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.

The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

WCC Clash - Round 2

One of the most overused words in sports today is- adversity. The moment that struck everyone that this particular word was being taken too conveniently to describe too broad a subject matter was when Tom Brady said his New England Patriots has overcome a lot of “adversity” in putting together 18-0 record after his team had just won the 2008 AFC championship on the way to playing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. As it turned out Brady did face real adversity the following season, blowing out his knee and coming back to play this past season.

Instead of adversity, let’s start a new word for sports speak, resiliency. Gonzaga (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS) started the season with two very good guards, a potentially outstanding freshman forward and their usual rugged schedule. The Bulldogs exceeded early season expectations and quickly grew as a team under the leadership of coach Mark Few and established they would still be the favorite in the West Coast Conference.

After plowing thru the first part of the WCC slate, at the end of January, Gonzaga trailed by 14 points in the second half to last place Santa Clara, before winning 71-64 as 12-point favorites. Two nights later, at San Francisco, no such luck as they lost to the Dons 81-77 to fall into first place tie with St. Mary’s.

The Zags didn’t take the defeat lightly and pounded Portland 76-49 at home next, but less than 48 hours later they had a date with Memphis at their place. It turns out this contest was the top play in most forums that day; play against Gonzaga with the five points by professionals and amateurs alike.

What focus the Bulldogs had lost, it was back like a HD picture and they upset Memphis 66-58. Seniors Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray exhibited leadership and dragged the younger players back to playing 40 minutes of basketball, which they did against the Tigers. Gonzaga is 10-0 and 7-2 ATS this season off a spread cover and showed ample resiliency.

Saint Mary’s (21-3, 16-6-1 ATS) has just one loss in the West Coast Conference and it was to Gonzaga 89-82, in which the team collectively felt they placed too much pressure on themselves to play perfectly. The Gaels have been buoyed by that fact and have also shown resiliency, as they have come right back and played the same kind of basketball they had all year, winning six straight (3-2-1 ATS). The St. Mary’s players, led by center Omar Samhan, know this is their chance to take control of WCC and they are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in road games this season.

Bookmaker.com has the Gaels as six-point underdogs since they have lost 13 in a row at Gonzaga, though been competitive in covering six times. St. Mary’s is 10-2 and 9-3 ATS playing with three or more days rest and has to hope their three freshmen are more settled this time around. A loss sets up a very negative state of affair for the Gaels, who have to play Saturday against an improved Portland squad and one loss could easily turn into two.

Gonzaga has covered their last six contests vs. teams with .600 or better records and would love to see the athletic Elias Harris match his last effort against St. Mary’s where he scored 31 points. The Zags are often a top heavy home favorite and are 2-4 ATS at the McCarthey Athletic Center, in spite of 8-1 record. Since last season, they are 1-7 ATS at home playing teams with a winning record.

This WCC tilt is on ESPN2 starting at 8:00 Pacific and one factor every bettor has to think about is Gonzaga’s 66.1 free throw percentage, dead last in the conference for accuracy.

Meaningful West Coast Conference Clash

Gonzaga has been the 800-pound gorilla in the WCC, winning nine consecutive league crowns. Though a few different teams have challenged them in recent years, the one having the most success and creeping ever closer is St. Mary’s, who continues to bring in a solid array of players from here and abroad. Tonight is the first of at least two and possibly three matchups between these respectful rivals.

The coaching aplomb of Mark Few is on display again this season. Despite a treacherous non-conference slate, Gonzaga (12-3, 7-4-1 ATS) came thru with shining colors, in spite of the fewest number of returning scorers in years. What makes the Bulldogs the favorite in the West Coast Conference is the addition of freshman forward Elias Harris, whose averaged 18.5 points per game in last four outings. His easy transition to the collegiate game enables Gonzaga to appear to be the best team in the league. One area of concern is free throw shooting (66.9 as a team), beyond Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray. The Zags are 26-14 ATS in January road games the last several years.

While Gonzaga looks like a conference champ again, St. Mary’s (15-2, 13-3 ATS) won’t be easily dismissed. They have road wins at Utah State and Oregon, showing the Gaels are battle-tested and they have been one of the favorite plays of sports bettors all season with their stellar spread record. St. Mary’s has the best big man in the WCC in center Omar Samhan, who is also getting mentions on the national level. The biggest concern on game day for coach Randy Bennett is Samhan being aggressive without committing fouls. Mickey McConnell and freshman Matthew Dellavedova have added a constant scoring threat from the backcourt for a team 8-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season, like they did at Santa Clara in last outing (80-72).

St. Mary’s play the last few years has earned the respect of oddsmakers like those at Bookmaker.com and they are listed as four-point favorites with total of 152. The Gaels are 9-2 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game (Gonzaga is +9.9) over the last two seasons. St. Mary’s is an outstanding shooting team, 49.5 percent from the field and 41 percent from beyond the arc, which helps explain why they are 14-5 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.

Gonzaga is going to have to turn up the defensive pressure, as they are 2-9 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers. The Bulldogs are 10-2 OVER on the season, including 7-2 OVER as visitors.

This WCC encounter starts at 8:00 Pacific on ESPN2 with Gonzaga 8-4 at McKeon Pavilion since 1997, with 5-7 ATS mark.

Big East and ACC in spotlight

Four ranked teams from two of the premier conferences will showcase their talents this Wednesday. In the Big East, No. 16 Pittsburgh hits the road to No. 15 Connecticut, with the Panthers looking to stay unbeaten in conference play. Later, 12th ranked North Carolina visits 24th ranked Clemson, which will be a test of wills for each team trying to steady recent developments they have felt. For sports bettors, a very busy Hump Day.

Panthers on the prowl

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) lost too much talent from a season ago and had too many gaping holes to be considered nothing more than a team that would finish fifth to eighth in the Big East. Instead, Jamie Dixon of Pitt is the mid-season favorite for national coach of the year with what he’s done in the Steel City. The emergence of Ashton Gibbs and the return of Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon have seen the Panthers take off and with another conference upset, would stay tied with Villanova for the top spot. Pitt has always been able to play with physical teams and is 22-7 ATS versus clubs who average 40 or more rebounds a game.

Connecticut (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS) needs a positive right away after giving away a 19-point lead at Georgetown and falling 72-69.” It’s the most heartbreaking loss this year. It’s not even close,” coach Jim Calhoun said. “We took our 20 minutes of work, threw it away and said, ‘OK, now let’s play an even game.’”

Turnovers were the bugaboo for the Huskies, committing 15 in all. Coach Calhoun will try to get his guards to value the possession of the ball more, since UConn is 9-0 (4-4 ATS) when they commit 13 or less turnovers.

Connecticut is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 17-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. The Huskies are among the best defensive teams in the country holding teams to 37.2 percent shooting and will have to contain Pittsburgh. The Panthers magic formula for winning is shooting over 40 percent, as they are 12-0 and 5-4-2 ATS.

This Big East battle starts at 7 Eastern on ESPN2 with Connecticut 6-2 and 4-4 ATS in last eight meetings at home.

ACC foes on the mend

North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) was stunned at College of Charleston 82-79 and came back and beat Virginia Tech by 14 in next outing. Clemson was duped at Duke, losing by 21 points and rebounded with 72-56 win over Boston College as nine-point favorites. Each ACC will look to continue winning ways this evening.

One of Roy Williams coaching axioms is he doesn’t play favorites. If one of his players is playing great and the other average, the one giving the better effort will start and use up the majority of minutes, that’s his belief. Normally by now, Williams is into comfortable starting five and other roles have been defined, but not this year, as many players have taken two steps forward and one back. The Tar Heels are 40-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

You can’t help but be impressed with the job Oliver Purnell has done at Clemson (13-5, 8-5 ATS). In the past, losing as many quality players as last year would have spelled rebuilding on the South Carolina campus, but not these days. Purnell has imported a continual flow of players like freshman Noel Johnson and Devin Booker, meshing with established players like Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. Purnell realizing he has 10 players not that different ability-wise, opened up competition for starting spots, to keep guys hungry. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS at home against teams making 45 percent of their shots.

Clemson will seek to improve upon 4-6 and 5-5 ATS mark at Littlejohn Coliseum vs. the Heels and is a four-point favorite to do so. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.
This is the 9:00 Eastern clash on ESPN and North Carolina is 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference win since last season.

College basketball doubleheader on the duece

The All-City Classic used to be one of premier holiday tournaments in the country, but as the college basketball landscape changed, so did this event. Now it is primarily a local draw instead of diverse field, yet quality basketball is still available in Oklahoma City. Both games can be seen on ESPN2 starting at 6:30 Eastern, with a distinct Oklahoma flair, providing a pair of wagering opportunities.

UTEP vs Oklahoma 6:30E ESPN2

Texas El-Paso (6-2, 2-2 ATS) is one of the out-of-state participants for this event and is off to their finest start in nine seasons. With Memphis no longer a shoo-in to win Conference USA, the Miners are among four teams that could mine a league crown. UTEP’s leading scorer is Randy Culpepper, who is a proven point producer and is complimented by forward Arnett Moultrie and guard Julyan Stone. The roster is further enhanced by D-1 transfers Christian Polk and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter. The Miners are 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The post-Blake Griffin era got off a taxing start with three straight late November losses, however since that time, Oklahoma has gotten both feet leveled. The Sooners (8-3, 4-5 ATS) lack dominant defensive player in the lane and were taken apart for over 89 points a game in those defeats. Since then, the players have rededicated themselves to shuffling the feet and keeping opponent in front of them and they have surrendered 73 or fewer points in all but one game in amassing six straight wins. The Sooners last two contests have gone over the total and they are 12-26 ATS when that occurs the last dozen years.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Oklahoma as a three-point pick with total of 147.5.

LaSalle vs Oklahoma State 8:45E ESPN2

LaSalle has 7-3 record and has played to about everyone’s expectations, which is part of their problem in the bigger picture. Losses to South Carolina, Villanova and Kansas were expected, however aspirations of getting into the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament means you have to pull a few surprises. The Explorers (2-4 ATS) failed to come closer than 10 points in any of those defeats and did not cover the spread in any of those contests. This would be the perfect opportunity to step up and upset a known Cowboys club before a national cable audience. Led by NBA prospect Rodney Green and freshman big man Aarric Murray, La Salle is inauspicious 0-6 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or points a game over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma State (9-1, 3-1-1 ATS) won a clutch game at Stanford 71-70 as two-point road underdogs last Wednesday and they will look to build on that momentum. Senior guard Obi Muonelo snapped out of an ugly funk, scoring 18 of his 20 points in the second half and the Cowboys needed every one of them after building a 15-point lead against the Cardinal. Oklahoma State is undersized and needs have James Anderson deliver each time out and freshman point guard Ray Penn is gaining notoriety. The Cowboys are nine-point favorite and are 13-3 ATS in that role over the last two seasons.

Great start to college football Saturday

By game time on Saturday, two more conference tiles will have been decided over the last couple of games and now it’s time to fill the last five spots, which includes four specific BCS bowl slots. Starting in Pittsburgh, the home of the defending professional football and hockey champions and the Pirates (keeps things in balance), the Big East championship game will be played. Over in Greenville, NC, where they average 50 inches of rain a year, the Conference USA crown will be determined, with the winner advancing to the Liberty Bowl. Let the fun begin.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 12:00E ABC

The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.

Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.

Bookmaker.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.

This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 4.5

Houston at East Carolina – 12:00E ESPN2

It took all season, but two of the teams that were thought to be in the Conference USA championship game in early October have emerged as division champions. East Carolina held off Southern Mississippi 25-20 and now has a chance to be back-to-back champs. The Pirates (8-4, 5-6 ATS) advanced to the championship contest based on many of the same things that helped them all season. Sixth-year senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney led the way throwing for 269 yards and the defensive line made play after play, allowing East Carolina survive. East Carolina will be the host for this title tilt, however they are only .500 against the spread in last 52 home games.

Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) was supposed to play in this game a season ago, but was derailed by Rice. The Cougars made sure that didn’t happen two years in a row by obliterating the Owls 73-14 and moving on to first championship conflict. Quarterback Case Keenum will bring the nation’s top passing game into Greenville, averaging over 440 yards thru the air, with its dizzying array of pass patterns and movement. Keenum is a finalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award and has terrific receivers to throw to. The Cougars are consistent offensively, scoring in 45 of 48 quarters this season, which is the highest average in college football at 93.7 percent. Houston is only 10-22 ATS in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

East Carolina pulls the upset as 2.5-point dogs if Pinkney throws accurately and RB Dominique Lindsay runs wild. Both are possibilities as Houston allowed 445 yards per game (those same teams averaged 370 YPG) and was 113th in run defense. The best way to beat Houston is a cliché, but it’s true, keep the offense on the sidelines. The Pirates can steal a win since they are 13-2 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

ECU is lucky to be here. Southern Miss fumbled and lost the ball at the one going in for touchdown and had blocked extra point returned for two points. Houston has to block a very good defensive line to give Keenum time to throw. This offense is unstoppable if pass patterns are given time to develop (ask losers). On defense, the Cougars will allow a ton of yards, but need to make a few stops or force turnovers. Houston historically has a vast collection of bad angles; nonetheless they are 8-3 ATS THIS season.

Here are numbers to chew on about this C-USA battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points. The road team has won four of last five meetings and covered the spread each time. Additionally, in head to head matchups, Houston won by 21 points and East Carolina by 14.2.

3DW Line – Houston by 1

Chippewas Big Favorite in MAC Title Tilt

All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about their business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. The Chippewas were 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MAC’s all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwich’s record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigan’s return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.

Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.

Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said “It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, “That’s why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. That’s what motivated us in the offseason. We didn’t want to be on our couches watching the game again.”

The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Sportsbook.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.

“You want to be the best, then you have to beat the best,” senior WR Taylor Price said. “We get that chance.”

Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.

ESPN2 has the MAC title game at 8:00 Eastern.

College Buckets on ESPN2

With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started.

Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2

Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.

Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.

USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2

Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.

Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is 20.5-point favorite and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.

Penn State and Virginia get things started

This is the opening matchup of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge and both teams look to build on good shooting victories. Off last season’s NIT championship, Penn State coach Ed DeChellis is searching for buckets this season. He knows what to expect out of guard Talor Battle, but not quite sure what to expect from everyone else. Chris Babb and Jeff Brooks have responded well early, and Andrew Jones continues to make good choices in terms of shot selection.

The Nittany Lions (4-2, 2-3 ATS) ticked the twine with great frequency, shooting 63.8 percent in 87-75 win over Sacred Heart in last contest, though failed to cover as 16.5-point home favorites. Penn State is 6-0 ATS in true road non-conference games.

First year coach Tony Bennett has half his team in order at Virginia (4-2, 2-2 ATS), the other aspect will take time and effort. The Cavaliers have all five starters from last season and eight of nine top scorers that accounted for 91 percent of offense. Great, super, wonderful, except coach Bennett is defensive-minded coach and really wants the effort on that end of the floor.

Virginia defeated Cleveland State 76-65 the last time out as 3.5-point favorites, shooting 52.8 percent. Bennett had to be pleased with the effort, but not the defense, which allowed a season-high 55.3 percent. Thus far the Cavaliers have seen three opponents shoot 47.5 or better and three other teams convert less than 39 percent from the field. Virginia is 11-24 ATS after allowing opposing team 55 percent or higher shooting percentage.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cavaliers as 5.5-point favorites and they are only 13-16 ATS on their home floor the last 2+ years and 4-10 ATS in non-conference action of late. Penn State is not a comforting choice either with 7-17-1 spread record as an underdog of 6.5-points or less.
The total appears to be a tough call with the Nittany Lions 8-1 OVER against the ACC and Virginia 7-0 UNDER after covering the spread.

The ACC has never lost this event in its 10 years and ESPN2 will have the coverage starting at 7:00 Eastern. Virginia is 5-4 SU with Penn State 3-5 SU in the years they played.

Boise State Seeks Televised Blowout

Boise State continues its quest for perfection, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was largely seen as highlights. Boise State needs gigantic blowout and to keep winning to set up possible Fiesta Bowl date.

That is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.

This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.

Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.

Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.

Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage anyway we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.

Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State as 23.5-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.

But that doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”

A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.

The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2.

West Virginia in upset mode

West Virginia (7-2, 2-6 ATS) is in a unique situation in the Big East. They can make themselves conference champions by knocking off Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Rutgers in their remaining games. A loss to either the Bearcats or Panthers would help determine who eventually is named champion or beating those two schools, but losing at Rutgers would be the cruelest fate of all. West Virginia’s offense has slowed, after scoring 30 or more points in their first five games; as they have not managed to climb to that barrier since.

The Mountaineers defense, once a fixture in the Top 30, now allows far too many big plays of 20 or more yards, which is a real issue having to deal with Cincinnati offense. West Virginia will need A-game and is 11-4 ATS in road encounters in Nov/Dec. regular season contests.

The Bearcats are 9-0 for the first time in 58 years and brimming with confidence. Coach Brian Kelly is a noted taskmaster, yet his in-game demeanor has been much calmer this season. Cincinnati (6-3 ATS) players always look to be prepared and seem to enjoy playing, something not always seen from others on a week to week basis. A win here and just two games remain, a final home contest in non-conference action against Illinois and a likely huge showdown at Pittsburgh.

Cincy can’t ignore a mildly underachieving West Virginia squad who is capable of big upset. That’s where the defense had to play smart and whoever is the quarterback has to remain composed. The latest information has sophomore Zach Collaros makes his fourth straight start as the Bearcats chase the first 10-0 start in school history. Coach Kelly has waffled a little this week about who his starter once Tony Pike is healthy. Pike is expected to see playing time in this Big East battle. The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as nine-point underdogs, with total of 55. The Mountaineers are 14-2-1 SU against Cincy and will be an underdog for the first time since the ‘Cats joined the Big East.

West Virginia’s offense has taken notice that the two best rushing attacks Cincinnati has faced, Fresno State and UConn, both went over 200 yards on the ground. Can the ‘Teers take advantage on a short week, since they are 1-5 ATS on Friday nights? The Bearcats have shown ability to rebound off a weak defensive effort and are 8-1-1 ATS after conceding 200 or more yards on the ground. Coach Kelly teams are 7-0 ATS at home after ringing up 37 or more points.
ESPN2 will bring this Big East confrontation into viewers living rooms, with the visitor is 5-1-1 ATS and the Under is on 4-1 run.

Central Michigan hosts Toledo

The Chippewas will attempt to keep perfect MAC record (5-0) intact hosting Toledo. The 31-10 loss to Boston College is excusable; being a difficult place to play and it was Central Michigan’s third straight road game. This game matters as the last thing Central Michigan (7-2, SU&ATS) needs is a loss with Northern Illinois nipping at their heels and these two teams facing off in 16 days.

Most coaches have a good sense of what their team needs and CMU head coach Butch Jones felt the extra few days off was a benefit to his squad.

“It was a good break … we were one of the teams in the country who have gone nine straight weeks without a break,” Jones said. “There were bumps and bruises and just the wear and tear of the week-in and week-out stress of playing football, plus six of our nine games were on the road. Four of our five games in October were on the road.”

Quarterback Dan LeFevour will look to get offense back on track for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are believed to have a rather potent offense, yet a closer look reveals a slightly different story. Nothing wrong with averaging 30.6 points per game, however their opponents allow 29.1 PPG. The offense averages 390.8 yards per game, fourth in the MAC, facing opposing teams that concede 380 YPG, hardly overwhelming. The key number for Central Mich. is 28, since they are 8-1 ATS when they cross that point total.

The Chippewas and LeFevour are averaging 50.7 PPG at Kelly-Shorts Stadium and take on leaky Toledo defense being burned for 37.4 points an outing. The Rockets (4-5 SU&ATS) demise from the elite in the MAC has been on this side of the ball and no answers have been forthcoming. If Toledo faces a running team, they easily accomplish 4.9 yards per carry for over 175 YPG and if the opponent passes, plenty of holes in the secondary to throw for almost 250 YPG. The noise you hear is the Chippewas offensive players rubbing their hands together waiting to attack Rockets defense and take on Toledo who is 5-12 ATS as road underdog.

Toledo is built to pass and they really need senior Aaron Opelt throwing the pigskin after missing 2 ½ games with injured wing. He was ineffective in the 31-24 loss as five-point favorites to Miami-O and the hope is the extra time off has healed his shoulder. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Central Michigan as 17.5-point favorites with the total of 61. The best way to attack the Chippewas is running the ball between the tackles like Buffalo did for 223 yards, which opens up the passing game and slows down their pass rush. Toledo is capable of putting up decent running numbers and is 10-1 ATS off a SU and ATS loss vs. opponent off a 10-point or more defeat.

The Chippewas have a good history of coming back after solid loss and are 22-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game and 6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

ESPN2 has the MAC West encounter at 8 Eastern, with Toledo is 1-4 SU and ATS vs. Central Michigan, yet offers hope with 15-8-1 ATS record in November.

A little Tuesday Night Football

It’s a weeknight in November, which must mean it’s time for Mid-American Conference Football. The league has enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2009 with better quality football. Central Michigan knocked off Michigan State and Northern Illinois punted Purdue among fine showings. This week several more MAC games will be televised as teams compete to determine who plays in the league’s championship game.

This is Ohio U’s last road game of the season and it has intentions of staying right where they are in the MAC East standings, hoping to setup all important matchup with Temple in last contest of the year. The Bobcats (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are 4-1 in conference action and trail the Owls who have yet to lose. Before then, the Bobcats have to avoid what almost befell them at Ball State, escaping with 20-17 win as 5.5-point favorites.

Ohio U. has been road warriors with 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. They hope that continue, since the last several years have been contrary to that information, being 8-13 and 6-15 ATS on the November road. The Bobcats offense is now more of a spread with “pistol” elements and as expected growing pain has been part of the process. They’ve averaged 315 yards against teams that allow 376 per game. Their biggest problems have been in the red zone, with a youthful offensive line and no true power backs.

Defensively, Ohio U has been strong, forcing 27 turnovers and giving the offense continual chances. Off their win at Ball State, they are 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last three seasons.

Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) is off painful last minute loss to Bowling Green 30-29 last Tuesday and is running out of reasons to stay motivated.

“It’s a tough loss, tough for our football team,” Buffalo coach Turner Gill said. “That’s why you have to play four quarters. We didn’t know how to finish the football game. Bowling Green did a good job and finished the football game.” After being MAC champions a season ago, the best Buffalo can hope for is .500 record if they win out.

The Bulls have gone thru a number of running backs this season due to injury and Jeffvon Gill, no relation to Buffalo’s coach, rushed for 172 last week against the Falcons in a relief role. The Bulls played mistake free football as week ago, yet is only 8-19 ATS in home games after a contest where they committed one or less turnovers.

Bookmaker.com has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites with total of 45.The Bulls are 5-4 and 6-3 ATS in last nine meetings and have never been favored in 10 previous games vs. Ohio U until today. Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite and 5-1 OVER against teams with winning records. Ohio U. is 3-11-1 ATS as underdog of three or less points since 1997 and is 7-1 OVER in that role.

ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern live from University of Buffalo Stadium.

Boise State tries to impress voters

This is the first of three games Boise State has on prime time Friday’s to convince BCS voters they deserve to move back up in the standings and keep fingers crossed those ahead of them falter in the coming weeks. This might be the last chance for the Broncos to be beaten during the regular season, down in Ruston, LA at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) still has Idaho and Nevada, both of whom are having good seasons, however those games are at Bronco Stadium. Though Boise State was never specifically challenged in road games at Fresno State and Tulsa, they had to play the full 60 minutes in each case to secure victory. If quarterback Kellen Moore continues to play at such a high rate of efficiency (24 TD’s-to-2 picks ratio), the Broncos will be nearly impossible to stop, especially with its Top 10 defense. The Broncos’ backers could almost be accused of peculation with Boise’s 35-18 ATS record as WAC favorites of 10 or more.

This is Louisiana Tech’s only home game in five week period and what an opponent to match up with. At least incentive should not be an issue, especially before the home fans. The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season and 9-1 (6-2 ATS) since last facing Boise State on their own turf.

To have chance for the upset, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 3-4 ATS) has to have quarterback Ross Jenkins play at an extremely high level. His backup, redshirt freshman Colby Cameron, is also expected to see playing time, as he has impressed the coaches in recent weeks. Running back Daniel Porter and receiver Phillip Livas were both injured last week against Idaho and are game time decisions. The defense needs to force stops and create chaos against normally composed Broncos. Having Boise State being unmotivated wouldn’t hurt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Louisiana Tech as 21-point underdogs with total of 50. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under coach Derek Dooley and 4-1 ATS hosting Boise State. However, since 2002, Louisiana Tech 4-15 ATS vs ranked squads.

Boise State has more good numbers than George Clooney’s cell phone for dating purposes. The Broncos are 14-3-1 ATS the last two seasons and are 8-1 ATS on the road. When everything is clicking, Boise State is 14-3 ATS after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games, with winning margin of 28.5 points per game.

Look for this WAC dispute on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern, with Boise State 11-2 UNDER in November road games.