2010 NFL Schedule Observations

The National Football League generated their annual buzz with the release of the schedule. Each home teams fan base immediately started speculating what their team’s record might look like except for Minnesota (they have grandfatherly quarterback from the South who likes to take his time) and Oakland (who doesn’t know the Raiders will have losing record). Sports bettors also like to think about the future, especially the prime time matchups. We’ll start with key games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, all prime wagering territories.

Thursday feels different

The NFL took John Madden’s advice from several years ago and has made opening weekend a big deal, just like baseball does. That includes a top shelf game to whet the football appetite and Minnesota at New Orleans certainly fits the bill. The home teams are 7-1 and 5-1-2 ATS since this was introduced.

The NFL started sneaking in Thursday games a few years ago and had a more complete slate in the second half starting last year. In order to keep their partners from FOX and CBS happy, for the most part the games lacked pizzazz with mostly mediocre teams playing.

Not this year, bettors will see Baltimore at Atlanta (Week 10), Cincinnati at the N.Y. Jets (Thanksgiving night) and Indianapolis at Tennessee (Week 14) to name a few quality matchups.

Sunday Night Adventures

Since NBC took over the Sunday night package, sports bettors have made this an instant turnaround scenario. This is mostly square action, with NFL bettors trying to cover losses or pressing wins seeking the bigger score. While neither strategy is recommended, no debating the quality of games this far out before the season begins.

Week 1 we have the traditional Dallas and Washington rivalry, almost always good theatre. A number of other excellent divisional matchups will take place like the Jets at Miami (Week 3), the Giants at Philadelphia (Week 11), Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Week 13) and the Eagles at Cowboys (Week 14). One other confrontation could be a ratings bonanza with Minnesota and certain quarterback, visiting his former place of employment Green Bay on October 25.

The Packers are also involved in other entertaining contests, hosting Jerry Jones club in Week 9 and making trip to New England for the first time in eight years on Dec. 19.

Week 2 will conjure up a great deal of intrigue in the “Manning Brothers Bowl” at Indianapolis.

Monday’s with Tirico, Chucky and Jaws

A good portion of last year’s Monday action was terrific, especially early in the year. John Gruden’s enthusiasm carried thru and he and Ron Jaworski talked football for three hours making the booth more true football fan friendly.

Their first assignment is Baltimore at the New York Jets, with Rex Ryan going up against his former team. Later that same night, San Diego makes another opening game appearance on MNF versus another division rival, Kansas City, where they are 3-8 ATS.

This season will feature 13 division rivalry contests, always a treat for the sports bettors with the most anticipated one being Philadelphia in rematch at Donovan McNabb’s new crib in Washington on Nov. 15.

There is only one non-conference hookup and hostility could be in the air if Brett Favre actually does return. Minnesota will visit the new Meadowlands and the New York Jets, which will down as an asterisk in his storied career and one Jets’ fans will not forget for many reasons.

Changes in the schedule

Roger Goodell tried to address the last part of the schedule to become more meaningful and all 16 games the final Sunday of the season will be divisional contests. While some question what Oakland at Kansas City and St. Louis at Seattle might mean, this writer applauds the effort in trying to make the end of the season not just several exhibitions that count in the standings.

In all, 28 division games will be played the last three weeks of the year (29.1 percent of the total).

The NFL has graciously stepped aside from the World Series for years on Sunday night’s in late October, but with falling ratings for the former national pastime, Goodell and the guys decided to make baseball’s life that much more difficult with Nov. 1 conflict of Pittsburgh at New Orleans.

A few scheduling observations………….

No team has a duller schedule than Buffalo. Besides no national TV games, all 16 Sunday contests have a 1:00 Eastern start time.

San Diego is notoriously slow starter, however anything less than 4-2 with at Kansas City, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland and at St. Louis would qualify as not mentally prepared.

Cincinnati is seeking first back to back winning seasons in 28 years with fourth toughest schedule.

Kansas City will have Play Against sequences, with three pairs of two road games.

Cleveland won their last four contests a season ago and could start 2-0 going to Tampa Bay and hosting the Chiefs. The Browns close to the year is taxing. Three straight road games Weeks 13-15 and finishing at home with division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Denver has three consecutive road games in Week 13-15.

Houston has Indianapolis at home and three of next four games against the NFC East to begin 2010.

Washington was 4-12 in 2009; however the power of Mike Shanahan leads to five national tilts.

The Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints move to the role of hunted and first road test in at San Francisco on Monday night.

Dallas finally broke late season blues; however they could return having to face (@) the Colts, Philly, Redskins, (@) Cardinals and (@) Eagles in final five weeks.

Matt Leinart will receive a quick baptism as the Arizona starting quarterback again with three of first four games on the road.

The Cardinals and Detroit have three consecutive home games in Weeks 12-14.

The Falcons have a road game on Oct. 17 and don’t wear visiting uniforms again until Nov. 21 with three home contests and a bye.

Pittsburgh will play three home games and three road games without suspended Ben Roethlisberger and when he returns three consecutive national telecasts at the Saints, Cincy and home with New England.

The normally profitable West to East three time zone games have nine occurrences, with seven having a 1:00 Eastern start (10:00 Pacific for West Coast teams). This is usually the best value early in the season, before teams have traveled much and the Falcons have Arizona and San Fran in town the first four weeks of regular season.

Jets at Chargers Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don’t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn’t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn’t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn’t look to stop a portion of a team’s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who’s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don’t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it’s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there’s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn’t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

DiamondSportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York’s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.

Jets vs. Bengals Betting Matchup

All the NFL analysts on television and radio keep saying the same thing don’t read too much into the New York Jets clocking Cincinnati 37-0 last week. The Jets had to win and the Bengals had nothing to play for blah, blah, blah. In theory that makes sense, but is losing by such a horrific score ever a good thing, especially when you have to play the same team again the next week?

The motivation angle works that Cincinnati will be more fired up after being throttled and will be back on home field before adoring fans and bring full playbook as opposed to Cliff Notes version they used last week.

There are a number of troubling signs for Bengals fans despite the dismissal. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games and has covered the spread just one time. They have scored more than 20 points just twice since November and one of those was 23 against Detroit, not exactly newsworthy. Say what you will about playing possum, but after allowing 257 yards on the ground to the Jets, Cincy is 4-15 ATS after surrendering 200 or more rushing yards last game.

Cincinnati has lost four defensive starters since the Week 3 of the season and they plainly are not as good as they were earlier in the year. Carson Palmer has really only played one outstanding game the second half of the season, when he threw for 293 net yards at San Diego. Granted the focus has been running the ball more, nonetheless the loss of Chris Henry as a player has impacted the passing game tremendously.

The Jets defense ranked No.1 in total defense and Darrelle Revis had a special year at corner. He certainly has the ability to take away the Bengals top receiver, Chad Ochocinco. As Coach Rex Ryan pointed out, New York at least in theory is built for the playoffs. They feature a strong defense with top-rated running game at 172.2 yards per game, led by Thomas Jones and are 12-2 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards.

Coach Ryan made no specific reference to quarterback Mark Sanchez and for good reason, since he is realistically their top liability coming into the game. Undoubtedly, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will do everything he can to protect his rookie signal, but will have to deal with Cincinnati’s run blitzes on early downs after going totally vanilla a week ago.

Sanchez will be forced to complete slant passes or quick outs against solid Bengals corners Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall. The Jets traded for Braylon Edwards during the season and it is his time to be a difference-maker. The Flyboys are 6-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning home records.

The Bengals, making just their second postseason appearance in 19 years, may not stick around long, unless the running game clicks and Palmer starts completing some passes. Expect Cincinnati to run crossing routes to either free up Ochocinco or create space for other pass-catchers to be a factor. The Bengals offensive line has to bring it and create lanes for Cedric Benson.

Bookmaker.com has Cincinnati favored by 2.5-points with total of 33.5. The Cats are 0-7 ATS as favorites this season and 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points a game the last three years. New York is hardly a picture of prosperity with 2-10 ATS record after two straight wins by 10 or more points; however are 8-3 ATS as road dogs catching three or fewer points.

The home team has covered the last four meetings and Cincy is 9-0 UNDER as a home favorite.

NFL Week 17 Betting Stuff

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching “Cougar-Town”. Let’s take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik’s Cube is easier to figure out. As a public service here is how it works out in the AFC if either the Ravens or Jets falter.

Real Life or Football

Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager’s reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here’s the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they’ve been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)
* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)
* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland – Dallas- Arizona)
* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland – Seattle –Note: These same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)
* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants – Denver)
* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans – Dallas)
* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta –New England)
* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.
* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.
* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

*Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.
*Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

*Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.
*Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.
*Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.
*Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)
The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

*The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

*Cincinnati at New York Jets (See Sunday Night article)

*The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

*Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

It's rare that most people in the world are having a better week than Tiger Woods

Sorry I had to miss you yesterday, too much to do. When we last posted these we went 2-1 and today have CBB system that is 84.6 percent. The Top Trend is in the NBA at sparkling 11-1 and Steve of the LLC looks to nail yet another winner, this time in the NFL. Good Luck

What I thought today – The whole Tiger Woods thing is amazing. People wonder how he could do such a thing and it’s just another in the never ending line of athletes who believe after time they are infallible. His modest contrition was followed like usual blaming of the media for making his life awful and the rumors being unjust and unfair. Though I have always been a Tiger supporter, I’m disappointed not only with his infidelity, but his apology has to come with blaming someone else. Of course if he hadn’t been hawking around, this wouldn’t have happened, every think of that Eldrick? I guess he’s given the name “Tiger” a whole new meaning.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System-1) I know this system isn’t going to make everyone run right out and play it based on the team; however it is the best of the bunch today. PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Marist, after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. It’s comforting to have 22-4 ATS record to back you up.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Denver is 11-1 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Steve is playing the Under is NFL contest tonight.

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Jets and Bills Thursday Preview

Like the New England-Tampa Bay matchup in London, passports will be needed for a New York-Buffalo matchup north of the border at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Despite the hype and revenue this matchup produces, the buzz around Western New York has been the meeting between former Denver head coach Mike Shanahan and the Bills upper brass about the open coaching vacancy left by Dick Jauron.

These division teams are playing for little more than pride at this point although there is a chance the Jets (5-6 SU & ATS) could work their way into the wildcard race yet.

While Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS) sorts out its head coaching situation, interim coach Perry Fewell will run the ship for the rest of the campaign and try to figure out how to generate some points on offense in the final five games. Whether it’s Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, sustained drives have been hard to come by and a rag-tag offensive line, which has been brutal. The Bills had averaged 12.2 points per game in last eight outings before ending their most recent losing streak at three games with 31-14 decision over Miami as four-point home underdogs. The Bills are 8-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over an AFC East rival.

This will be the second meeting between the teams in 2009, and New York will be looking to avenge a 16-13 home defeat. Buffalo has won four of the last six, including both SU and ATS between the clubs in Orchard Park, with the underdog on a 3-0 spread roll. For the Bills, this is a second divisional home game in five days so to speak, and they are 3-1 ATS in this season vs. AFC East rivals after the upset of Miami.

Nevertheless, only six teams average fewer points than Fewell’s crew, and the offense has only four rushing touchdowns heading into Week 13. The Jets, meanwhile, are second (161.3 yards per game) in the league in rushing and boast 14 rushing scores.

New York will be looking for a much better performance from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez than the last time he faced the Bills. The Week 6 loss to Buffalo was the first signs of cracking in the Sanchez foundation. He threw five interceptions, three to rookie Jairus Byrd, and wasted a 210-yard, one-touchdown effort from RB Thomas Jones and a potential 50-yard field-goal try by Jay Feely in overtime saw holder Steve Weatherford unable to handle the snap. The Flyboys are 3-6 ATS since 2005 in the first of two straight road assignments.

Bookmaker.com has New York as three-point favorites in Toronto and the Jets have won just once in five divisional games, both SU & ATS and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC East contests overall. Coach Rex Ryan’s defense held Carolina to six points and 179 yards in the Meadowlands last week and they are 13-3 UNDER in road games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game. The listed total for this clash is 37 points.

Buffalo is 8-3 ATS against Gang Green since 2004 and after forcing four turnovers last Sunday, the Bills are 6-0 UNDER after a game with turnover margin of +3 or better.

This is NFL Network telecast which starts at 8:20E and the UNDER is perfect 6-0 on Thursday night’s this season.


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article

NFL Week 12 Previews

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. We’ll make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, “Just the facts please”. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of DiamondSportsbook.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON 1:00E CBS

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sunday’s game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, it’s been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-13, 39.5) 1:00 CBS

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47) 4:15E FOX

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last November’s 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicago’s collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, 40.5) 1:00E FOX

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washington’s third straight divisional loss of 2009; however they’ve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 39) at BUFFALO 1:00E CBS

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as it’s been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last season’s defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-2, 45) 4:15 FOX

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fisher’s team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasn’t so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, don’t ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-4, 42.5) at ST LOUIS 1:00E FOX

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46) 1:00E FOX

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlanta’s playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers’ team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3.5, 41.5)1:00E FOX

Both the Panthers’ and Jets’ playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. It’s hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in ’07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5) 4:05E CBS

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesn’t look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rio’s team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45) 4:05E CBS

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of ’09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turner’s team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.


Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.
Doug Upstone contributed to this article.

NFL teams in need of bounce back in Week 11

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coach’s miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlanta’s season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis’ perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this season’s four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens’ defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game-

This isn’t the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimore’s defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Manning’s mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Manning’s favorite targets.

3DW Line – Indianapolis by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Indianapolis -2, 44

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants 1:00E FOX

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlin’s first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverage’s to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlanta’s poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

3DW Line – Giants by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – Giants -7, 46

Washington at Dallas 1:00E FOX

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game-

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary can’t suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didn’t pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

3DW Line – Dallas by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -11, 41.5

N.Y. Jets at New England 4:15E CBS

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, it’s New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, they’ve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichick’s team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-’07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game –

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and won’t see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchez’s lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasn’t the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New England’s passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. It’s up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

3DW Line – New England by 13.5
Bookmaker.com Line – New England -10.5, 45

San Diego at Denver 4:15E CBS

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last year’s meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denver’s 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game-

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan won’t change with Simms, he’s going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense can’t get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

3DWLine – San Diego by 3.5
Diamond Sportsbook.com Line – San Diego -4, 44.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Wagering on Desperate NFL Teams

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bay’s season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets 1:00E CBS

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as “sick” about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rio’s team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchez’s boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defense’s top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

3DWLine – Jets by 10
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Jets -7, 41

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00E CBS

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game-

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesn’t leave the pocket. It’s a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure they’ll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and don’t let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Pittsburgh -7, 41.5

Atlanta at Carolina 1:00E FOX

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolina’s first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game-

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. He’s had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

3DW Line – Atlanta by 3
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Atlanta -1.5, 43.5

Philadelphia at San Diego 4:15E FOX

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasn’t able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reid’s team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reid’s first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last week’s one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game –

For coach Reid’s presumed genius on offense, he’s had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned F’s in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, he’s a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QB’s. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 1.5
Bookmaker.com Line – San Diego -1, 47

Dallas at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line can’t protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like it’s a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bay’s defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesn’t like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

3DW Line – Dallas by 5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 47.5

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Week 8 NFL Options

The schedule might be on the light side again this week, nevertheless meaningful NFL action will be conducted. Who doesn’t want to see Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay and it is made all the more interesting with the Packers favored and they could nearly tie Minnesota for first place in the NFC North. It’s Game 1 of day/night doubleheader for New York at Philadelphia, with the first contest on the gridiron. Denver places its perfect record on the line in Baltimore and the Jets look to build on last week 38-0 shutdown hosting Miami. Seeing it’s a Halloween weekend, thought going a little macabre and discuss the merits of the Rams and Lions contest.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia 1:00E FOX

If Philadelphia (4-2 SU&ATS) is to make a statement in the NFC East in 2009, the next two games will be the turning point. With home games vs. the Giants and Dallas on tap, the Eagles have a real chance to make themselves a factor. History might be on their side for this week’s game if the line remains the same, as underdogs have dominated the Philadelphia-New York series of late, going 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. With injuries to key Philadelphia offensive personnel, Donovan McNabb and Eagles fans will try and lift the team to 9-3 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants are 5-2 SU and ATS after losing to Arizona and continue a brutal schedule that will take them all the way through January. They are 21-12 ATS in divisional games under coach Tom Coughlin and have coved 10 of last 12 on the road.

Keys to the Game-

The Giants have lost two in a row, not getting enough of a pass rush and secondary being exposed due to injuries. Making McNabb as uncomfortable as possible has to be defensive goal. Another is limiting the chances for explosive DeSean Jackson to beat them. Punter Jeff Feagles has to directional kick accurately and for reasonable distance, something he failed to do last week. The G-Men are 14-4 ATS after playing a game at home and Eli Manning has to rediscover accuracy. When he’s as off-target as he’s been the last two weeks, it’s usually because he strays from fundamentals.

At last check, coach Andy Reid doesn’t need an invitation to throw the pass, look for him to test the Giants secondary, expect numerous three and four-receivers sets. Brian Westbrook won’t play, which means rookie LeSean McCoy has to be prepared, but not be anxious. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS in home games after playing on Monday night and will be taking calculated risk the Giants pass rush won’t get McNabb. If it does, Philly coaches will have to make quick in-game adjustments.

3DWLine – Philadelphia by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – N.Y. Giants -1, 44.5

St. Louis at Detroit 1:00E FOX

The nice thing about games like St. Louis-Detroit is that the oddsmakers still post betting lines on them. Oh, and also, one of the clubs will get a confidence boosting win. These have been the two worst NFC teams for the past several years, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 2006 when the Rams (0-7, 2-5 ATS) won a 41-34 affair as 5.5-point favorites. The Lions (1-5, 2-4 ATS) will be a rare home favorite, the first such instance since December 2007 in fact. Including that SU win/ATS loss vs. the Chiefs, Detroit is on a 4-0 SU & 2-1-1 ATS run as home chalk (now that’s scary). Coming off their bye week, the Lions also own a winning record in post-bye games of late, with 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark. St. Louis is still looking for a first win but stop the presses; the Rams own a 3-2 ATS record in their last road games (oh the humanity!)

Keys to the Game-

Anyone reading this deserves a key to the city from either Detroit or St. Louis. Quarterback Marc Bulger has looked ill-suited for the last couple of offenses he’s been in charge of since Mike Martz left town. His career path is taking on Joey Harrington proportions. In this celebration of losers, Bulger has to throw crisper passes that finish off drives, especially against NFL's 30th-ranked pass defense. Steven Jackson is the Rams best player by a generous margin, give him the ball until he collapses from exhaustion, that’s OK, St. Louis has bye next week. Otherwise, Rams fall to 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Receiver Calvin Johnson has been upgraded to probable, which is big help for team is desperate need of being able to stretch the field. The Rams allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt (31st in NFL), which should provide Detroit ample opportunity to attack down the field. The Lions rushed for over 129 yards against Minnesota and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 and 92.6 per game since. The offensive line has to return to physical football. The Lions are 3-13 ATS tackling wretched defensive teams who give up 27 or more points and they better tackle Jackson or add one digit to right side of ledger.

3DWLine – Detroit by 8.5
Bookmaker.com Line – Detroit -4, 43.5

Denver at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Teams coming off their bye week will meet when Baltimore hosts Denver. They come in riding completely different waves of momentum however. The Broncos last beat San Diego to take full control of the AFC West Division at 6-0. They are unblemished ATS as well (6-0), and are allowing a league best 11.0 points per game. In fact, strange as it is, the Denver defense is the better unit in this matchup. Baltimore (4-2 ATS) has lost three straight games to fall back to .500, and is yielding 21.7 points per game (19th) and 5.8 yards per play (23rd) after six contests. Those numbers fall well short of the accomplishments of the 2008 Ravens which were the No.2 overall defense. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team faces back-to-back divisional road tests after this one; making it all the more important they win this ballgame. In this head-to-head series, the Ravens and UNDER are both 5-1 ATS in last six conflicts.

Keys to the Game-

How teams have been dissecting the Ravens is by spreading them out. Coach Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to break down tape and can view the Baltimore secondary is beatable in several ways. Kyle Orton has thrived in this offense and has one worthless Hail Mary interception on the season. As every quarterback facing the Ravens at least knows, find safety Ed Reed first before throwing. Denver is 16-5 ATS after a bye week and will want to introduce linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Joe Flacco and build on his 10.5 sack total already this season.

Coach Harbaugh trusts Flacco this season more as passer, maybe too much. To start the season the Ravens ran the ball over 33 times a game, during the current three game losing streak, almost half, at 17.6 carries per contest. This would be a good time to establish tight end Todd Heap and fullback Le'Ron McClain and keep the Denver defense on the field for extended periods of time. Baltimore has covered nine of last 11 as a favorite and has to tackle better with all the short stuff Denver throws and completely take away the run. Baltimore needs points of some kind every time they are Denver territory.

3DWLine – Baltimore by 2
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Baltimore -3.5, 41.5

Miami at N.Y. Jets 1:00E CBS

It will be a quick turnaround for the AFC East rematch between the Dolphins and Jets, who met just three weeks ago in an entertaining Monday night contest in Miami. The Dolphins (2-4 SU&ATS) won that game 31-27 as three-point home underdogs to boost their record in divisional play to 6-2 ATS under Tony Sparano. (Interesting to note the Fins are less than point difference playing on the road compared to home vs. New York) However, this will be the first time since September 27th that they will have played on the road after struggling to just 20 points in two away losses. New York (4-3 SU&ATS) wraps up its home divisional slate with this contest and is looking to improve a 1-7-1 ATS mark in that scenario since 2006. New coach Rex Ryan’s team was able to snap its three-game losing streak last week in Oak-Town to climb back over .500 on the season. The Jets own the edge in the recent series clashes in New York, going 12-5 SU & 10-4-3 ATS since David Dinkins was elected mayor of new York City. (1992)

Keys to the Game –

This week Miami has to get more out of their base offense and likely be less dependent on the Wildcat. The Jets have seen live once already and should have a good read on how to contain or stop it. Having Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the game at the same time, adds a new element of deception, running draws and screens from different sets. Ted Ginn Jr. needs sideline time, he’s more a deterrent than help to Dolphins offense. Have Chad Henne chuck the pigskin to Brian Hartline and others. Miami is 3-13 ATS off a non-division contest, playing a division rival next and have to hope rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith can hold up against the pass and run.

This will be Henne’s first road start and Ryan’s bunch has to apply the pressure to him and make him feel as unsafe as midnight walk thru Central Park. Miami averaged better than six yards per Wildcat carry three weeks ago, that needs to be sliced in half. The Flyboys are only 1-5 ATS after opponent hangs a zero on the scoreboard, however can improve that record by giving Mark Sanchez a similar gameplan to last week. Keep it simple and add elements as the game progresses based on need. You traded for Braylon Edwards, keep him involved.

3DWLine – Jets by 3
Bookmaker.com Line – N.Y. Jets -3.5, 40.5

Minnesota at Green Bay 4:15E FOX

It seems like they played just yesterday, but Sunday is already time for the much anticipated rematch between Brett Favre’s Vikings, and his old team, Packers. This game might even be bigger than the last meeting, as this will be the first time Favre will return to Lambeau Field. It’s also important because the lead in the NFC North Division will be on the line, with Green Bay (4-2 SU&ATS) having a chance to pull even in the loss column with a win. The Vikings (6-1, 4-3 ATS) won round 1 but are off their first loss and looking to improve a 1-5 ATS record in their last six pre-bye week divisional games. They are also just 1-5 SU & ATS in NFC Central road contests of late. Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge as divisional hosts and has won six of the last nine at Curly Lambeau’s place. Minnesota owns a 7-2 ATS edge on the almost frozen tundra.

Keys to the Game-

If Brett Favre said he’s never been more nervous before a game than the one in Minnesota, wait until this one. Coach Brad Childress has to script the plays that allow Favre to come out aggressively, yet stay away from danger. Adrian Peterson has been fairly well bottled up four of the last five games and should be utilized more in the screen game to exploit his open field talents. The Vikings only have six turnovers on the year, the two last week cost them the game. Protect the ball against the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL. Minny’s offense is fire and they are 14-3 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive contests.

Focus the running game to the left, run the ball at Jared Allen almost exclusively the first part of the game. Work is body and legs to slow down his pass rush for later. Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, thus he should have enough education to dump the ball off to backs or tight end instead of taking negative plays. With CB Antoine Winfield out, work underneath passes to start and run double moves against fair to below average safeties. The Packers defense has allowed three points to two crummy teams (Lions and Browns), yet it is not a coincidence that since Aaron Kampman has played in three-point stance in passing situations, the defense has improved. The Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a double digit win and has to muddy the back of No.4’s jersey starting in the first quarter.

3DW Line – Green Bay by 6

DiammondSportsbook.com Line – Green Bay -3, 47

Steve Makinen of StatFox contributed to this article.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror in the NFL

If you were one of the sports bettors who had Carolina at -7 at home against Buffalo last Sunday, you were robbed. No it wasn’t by the oddsmaker and it wasn’t by Jake Delhomme (though he played a strong supporting role), it was the Carolina kicker John Kasay.

As advanced steps have been taken to analyze sports, one not given nearly enough credit is lost opportunities and how they relate to future results. My guess as to why this has never taken a strong foothold is because a lot can sound like whining depending on the story-teller and today’s world tends to be more results oriented, leaving less room for conjecture.

The Carolina Panthers were moving the ball up and down the field but stalling when they needed to punch the ball in the end zone. Kasay had two field goal opportunities in the first half against the Bills from very makeable distances of 43 and 39 yards respectively and he missed both. Where his misses altered the course game was in the last five minutes of the third quarter. Another Carolina drive was stalling at the 16-yard line of Buffalo, with the Bills ahead 7-2. Despite Kasay’s long history of success, coach John Fox was displeased with his accuracy on this day and decided to pass on 33-yard attempt and went on fourth down and about four feet. Carolina was stuffed at the point of attack and lost the ball on downs, trailing by the same score, in spite of 16-4 first down dominance.

That was essentially the game as the Bills took advantage of Delhomme interceptions and scored the next 10 points to build commanding 17-2 lead.

Kasay’s two misses changed everything. If he makes both field goals, the Panthers lead 8-7 and assuredly a normally conservative coach Fox kicks the field goal, giving Carolina an 11-7 lead and Buffalo now needs a touchdown from backup Ryan Fitzgerald, which based on final tally of total yards (425-167 Panthers) seems unlikely. Of course there is no way to know, but based on the pace of the game, Carolina at worst would have kicked another field goal (for a push) or possibly would have tallied a touchdown for the winner. A kicker’s inability to put the ball between the uprights cost his team and Carolina backers a victory.

Cross off New Orleans as a team that can’t overcome serious adversity. Whatever was possible for undefeated team playing a flat game against rested opponent on the road to go wrong did for the Saints. Drew Brees was sacked, hurried and intercepted, as New Orleans fell behind 24-3, but they never gave up and for the third time already this season, the Miami defense faltered in the second half and lost for a second time in three attempts. The Saints aren’t going 16-0, but with each passing week it looks like the road thru the NFC to the Super Bowl goes thru New Orleans.

If you have Direct TV, you saw a month’s worth of bad football this past week on the NFL package. The average winning margin for week seven was just over 20 points per game which has to approach some record. What is going to be really hard on NFL bettors is when these awful teams start meeting each other with nothing to play for, whom to you choose.

Know your Numbers- The current disparity in the NFL is shown by the fact teams with winning records playing teams with losing records are 14-7 ATS since week 4. –A couple of years ago the StatFox Edge Football Annual ran an article about Yards Per Points Scored. The basic premise was to Play On the Top 5 teams and Play Against the bottom five teams on a weekly basis. Thus far the Top 5 is 8-5-1 ATS and the bottom five is 6-12 ATS. (Teams in same group playing each other are not counted) If a matchup has a crossover from each group, the better team is 3-0 ATS thus far.—Favorites ended up 9-3-1 ATS last week, giving them 56-46-1 ATS record on the season. A sportsbook operator on the Vegas Strip I spoke to said the bean-counters were not going to be happy, as teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England and the New York Jets not only were heavily bet straight up, but were in various parlay and teasers that won, making it a one of the worst Sunday’s in the NFL in recent memory for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Upon further review in the NFL

The New Orleans Saints have cemented who is the best team in the NFC and possibly in the NFL is the middle of October. The Saints look a lot different than when started 5-1 in 2006, coach Sean Payton’s first year. That team was coming off 3-13 season and caught the league by surprise with their new quarterback Drew Brees. The former San Diego signal caller had a HUGE chip his shoulder after being no longer wanted in San Diego.

Payton was like a new teacher out of college, full of ideas and idealism and wanted to let the world know he was an offensive guru. New Orleans went to the NFC championship before losing to Chicago. The following two seasons are what most people would have expected from the Saints at 7-9 and 8-8.

Starting back in August, this New Orleans team had a different look. They destroyed teams in the preseason and it continued right in the regular season. After blowing away the Giants 49-27, this club has a killer look. Yes, the Giants were playing subs in the secondary, but they turned off New York’s pass rush and went after their greatest weakness.

The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS not just because of Brees, but because they have the No.9 defense and are fourth in rushing yardage. Brees and Payton have both grown up and so has New Orleans.

Baltimore made a spectacular comeback against Minnesota and should have won the game, but at least they covered the three for those on that side. While that was great news for Baltimore backers, a number of disturbing elements came out of that contest for the Ravens. After losing two consecutive games, Baltimore was flatter than a smashed crab cake and Minnesota jumped all over them 14-0. The Ravens secondary is well below average even with Ed Reed. While a NFL kicker should be expected to make a 44-yard field goal, once again, another team decides to go into a shell once there in range, instead of trying to get closer for an even shorter field goal attempt.

Could Philadelphia have looked any worse in losing to Oakland? For all the supposed genius of Andy Reid, how do you run 14 times against a Raiders defense that had allowed 182 yards rushing per game in previous four contests, especially in a close contest? DT Richard Seymour absolutely destroyed the Eagles offensive line by himself.

Remember all those big smiles and grins coach Rex Ryan had after 3-0 start. Those have been replaced by frowns with the Jets 3-3. His rookie Mark Sanchez took a step backwards in overtime loss to Buffalo, throwing five picks. Ryan’s mistake was placing too much faith in Sanchez. Every young quarterback is going to have ups and downs, which is why Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were successful as first year quarterbacks; they were kept on short leach.

Green Bay won 26-0 over Detroit and made a few defensive adjustments like having Aaron Kampman rush the passer more and blitzing LB Clay Mathews, as both have a knack for creating pressure. What is still disturbing is Rodgers being sacked four times.

There is no other way to describe it, Tennessee quit on coach Jeff Fisher in 59-0 shellacking in snow-laden New England. Though Fisher prior to this season has gotten more out of available talent than any NFL coach, it seems his message after 14 years is ringing hallow. This might be a great opportunity for him to step away, do some broadcasting work and get batteries recharged for another opportunity.

Heard on the radio something that made sense about Josh McDaniels unlikely 6-0 SU and ATS start in Denver. He was quoted as saying what he learned most under Bill Belichick was there was a way to beat every single team. It was the head coach’s responsibility to figure it out, sell it to the assistant coaches and in turn have them put it together for the players in understandable manner. If you believe what McDaniels says, Denver took away Dallas running game, exploited New England secondary and found special teams’ weaknesses in San Diego, which all led to victories.

Study the numbers

The NFL that everyone loves returned this week, with decided underdogs Buffalo and Oakland winning outright, with favorites a mere 5-9 ATS. This change has helped the sportsbooks who have been being beaten on parlays and teasers with so many big favorites winning. Talked to a sportsbook manager on the Vegas Strip who conveyed they took a lot of action on Steelers-Packers parlay and came away a good-sized winner on that product. Underdogs are 17-11 the last two weeks, after sporting 9-21 ATS record the two weeks prior. NFL time travelers are still having issues, with Philadelphia the latest three time zone team to fall, making them 2-8 ATS this season.

NFL teams that have a turnover margin of three or more are 4-8 against the spread if they play the following week. Professional football squads that played after winning outright as a road underdog are 9-4 ATS. Teams that have scored or allowed 40 or more points are a combined 7-1 ATS if they play the next week.

Totals players who march like lemmings when bad weather is reported, received a severe shock on Tennessee and New England outcome, which was over before halftime for Under bettors.

Columbus Day Stuff

Not too thrilled with the 1-2 day, as San Francisco didn’t bother to even show up, a first in Mike Singletary era. We have system play in the NFL tonight at 29-6. Our Free Picks offer both hockey and baseball and found a solid trend on the ice tonight. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday- While it’s easy to pick on the Denver Broncos uniforms, I wonder who pays for those uniforms and how much they cost? Yet these NFL teams would never think about lowering ticket prices. If I owned a NFL team and I had a game that was going to be blacked out in my town, I would have an online lottery signup for remaining tickets, charging $10.00 per entry. The winners get to go to the game for just ten bucks, but the place is full, plus the team and stadium receives all the parking and concession revenue. Those that did not win print their online receipt and can use it at the team’s gift shop (online or in person) or take it to local bars you’ve made deals with and get $10.00 off the price of food or drink and can watch the game there.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON team like the Jets who are an average offensive team scoring 18-23 points per game, against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This system clocks in at 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Colorado Avalanche are 6-22 off a road loss over the last two seasons.

Free Hockey and Baseball Pick -3) Our top hockey producer is betting Nashville on the money line tonight. I’ve put money on Philadelphia to wrap up series tonight on Coldarado.

Monday Night Magic is Guaranteed NFL Play.

Young Studs key in AFC East Battle

For the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, four games into the season look a little different than most anticipated. As they prepare for a division game on Monday, how these are where they are and the outcome of the game is not lost on the teams and fans alike.

New York (3-1 SU&ATS) drafted Mark Sanchez and believed he could help them right away, however very few outside the Jets locked room thought their first round pick would play this well this soon.

Yes, Sanchez did have a few rookie moments in loss to New Orleans last week, but that is to be expected and he has embraced his position in the Big Apple and has been an important cog in the wheel to New York’s fast start. The next step in Sanchez’s career development is how he bounces back from adversity, especially on the road, where the Jets are 6-0 ATS at Miami.

Coach Rex Ryan’s pressure tactics are paying dividends, with is club fourth in total defense at 277.7 yards per game and third in points allowed at 14.2. It’s of significance, Miami is 4-13 ATS at home vs. teams yielding 285 or less yards per game.

The Dolphins (1-3 SU &ATS) off last year’s complete turnaround that produced an AFC East title, expected to keep moving in the same direction. However, three straight losses to start the season were more shocking than recent pictures of Kevin Federline. Though the Dolphins run for 183.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL) they still lack explosion on offense. Part of it is how they’ve been built with Chad Pennington as the quarterback, using the running game and controlled passing. That is out the window with the former Jets QB on the shelf again, and a stronger armed Chad Henne takes over, with less actual playing experience than his counterpart Sanchez.

All division games take on added importance and this one just became more so for both teams with New England being upset at Denver Sunday. A win gives the Jets back the lead in the AFC East and a Miami victory makes it two in a row and places them just one game behind the Pats and Flyboys.

DiamondSportsbook.com has New York favored by 2.5 with total of 36. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in October off a SU and ATS loss and in revenge spot against opponent (Lost to Miami 24-17 in last meeting). The Jets are 17-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards. The Dolphins are 19-6 UNDER after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and could be in favorable situation with underdogs 8-1 ATS in Miami’s last nine pre-bye week games.

New York covers if they contain Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense. Coach Ryan has faced the Wildcat in the playoffs with Baltimore last year and attacked Brown up the middle and outside defenders stayed home to contain Brown. With cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Lito Sheppard, the Jets secondary should be able to handle ordinary Fins pass-catchers and stuff the box with run stoppers and blitz Henne like he’s seeing a green and white squadron. On offense, building an early lead is important, since that means Sanchez doesn’t have to do as much and run play action to attack Miami safeties that are much better against the run than the pass.

Miami covers if they control the line of scrimmage and maintain possession of the pigskin. Sanchez is a good rookie quarterback, but he’s not Peyton Manning. They Jets have given up 280 yards total on the ground the last two weeks, primarily outside the A and B gaps. Brown and Ricky Williams should test them. Henne has the arm to at least stretch the field beyond 10 yards, which could mean crossing patterns for solid route runners like Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess to move the chains and get the secondary away from the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins are second against the rush (61 YPG), which could force the New York to throw more than they prefer. Chances are Braylon Edwards will not be as much a factor this early.

Monday Night System – Play Against any team that lost against the spread on the road last week against a team that covered at home at the same time. (18-6 ATS)

NFL Week 4 Previews

This Sunday starts the bye weeks in the NFL, which means fewer offerings to choose from; however there are a few real beauties to tug at the heart of any sports bettor. Baltimore has looked as strong as any team in the league and will have chance to prove their worth in New England. Surprising unbeatens New Orleans and the Jets will try and stay that way in Bayou country. Denver was one of the top play against teams for season wins, but they are making a mockery of those tickets with 3-0 start and invite Dallas to town. Last year’s AFC division champions Tennessee and Miami will against try to scratch in the win column for first time in 2009.

Baltimore at New England 1:00E CBS

Baltimore (3-0 SU&ATS) has been one the AFC’s best teams in the first three weeks, picking up right where they left off a year ago. The Ravens continue to be an extremely reliable bet under coach John Harbaugh, going 17-5 against the spread. So far Baltimore is dominating, outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. Here they will take on a 2-1 New England (1-2 ATS) club that comes off its best performance of the year, a 26-10 win over previously unbeaten Atlanta. The Patriots have been solid in the month of October under head coach Bill Belichick with a 24-12 ATS record. They have also won each of the last four meetings with the Ravens, going 3-1 ATS in that span, but will be looking to snap a stretch of five straight losses at home when coming off another home game.

Keys to the Game-

Most experts are wondering how New England is sixth in total defense. Baltimore will want to find out themselves, lining up in I-formation and ramming it down the Patriots throat and see how they react. QB Joe Flacco is taking more shots down the field and New England’s secondary isn’t alarming anyone. The Ravens are ravenous 9-2 ATS after a win by 10 or more points and if Tom Brady thought he’s seen pressure thus far, wait until he sees all the black helmets coming his way this week.

The Patriots ran the ball 39 times last week and need to have that same type of commit against Baltimore. The yards won’t come freely against Ray Lewis and company, but it will slow down pass rush and establish New England can play just as physical. This helps the passing game if safety Ed Reed is forced to be involved against the run. New England is 41-17-2 ATS as non-division home favorite and Tom Brady needs pass protection and receivers to get open against sticky Ravens secondary. The Pats will not only need big game from Randy Moss, but other pass catchers must come thru also.

3DW Line – New England 2.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New England -1.5, 45

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans 4:05E CBS

Two unbeaten teams square off in a non-conference showdown in New Orleans, as the Saints host the Jets. The Saints (3-0 SU&ATS) came into 2009 with high expectations; the Jets did not, making this meeting all the more intriguing. In fact, two of New York’s first three wins came as an underdog. The Jets (3-0 SU&ATS) will be looking to extend a five-game SU & ATS winning streak by road teams in this head-to-head series. They have a 4-1 SU & ATS edge over the Saints in those five games; however have lost four in a row SU & ATS on the road vs. NFC foes. New Orleans has scored 40.0 points per game in its sensational start and has now gone 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Head coach Sean Payton’s team is on a 6-1-1 ATS stretch at home and has scored 23 points or more in 13 straight contests as hosts.

Keys to the Game-

The wheels will be spinning as Rex Ryan matches defensive prowess with Sean Payton’s offense. This is a different sort of game for the New York defense, as they have brought pressure incessantly. Drew Brees has the smarts and personnel to beat New York defenders, thus, look for Ryan to have game plan to make the Saints work for every first down. The Jets are 7-2 ATS off a win and understand the best way to prevent New Orleans from scoring is running the ball effectively and keeping Brees as spectator. New York is ninth in rushing yards but must do better than on 3.7 yards per carry.

New Orleans film study has shown nobody has gotten the Jets out of comfort zone early. Look for coach Payton and Brees to attack New York like a native with a fresh plate of jambalaya. Move the ball around, score early and see if Mark Sanchez can play from behind. The Flyboys are allowing 3.9 yards per carry, keep feeding the running game that averages five YPC. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS as a favorite and has forced three turnovers per game. Force the Jets to play perfect football on the road.

3DW Line – New Orleans by 6.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – New Orleans -7.5, 45.5

Tennessee at Jacksonville 1:00E CBS

The AFC South was believed to be premier division again in 2009, but only Indianapolis boasts a winning record after three weeks. The most disappointing team is Tennessee (1-2 ATS), who comes into this divisional affair at Jacksonville with a 0-3 mark. The Titans have now lost their last five games overall and are 1-4 ATS in that span. That represents their longest losing skid since the opening of the 2006 campaign. They have also lost their last three vs. AFC South rivals, both SU & ATS. Tennessee has played well in Jacksonville though, going 8-4 SU & ATS the last dozen trips. The Jaguars (1-2, 2-1 ATS) broke in the win column last week at Houston and are 2-0 ATS in divisional games thus far. However, they are on a brutal 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS run as hosts in what could be again a far less than capacity crowd. Nine of the last 13 games between these teams in Jacksonville have gone UNDER.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Jeff Fisher has dismissed all playoff talk; he just wants his team to win a game. Kerry Collins is catching heat in Nashville, but he wishes his receivers would catch more of his passes, with double digits drops on the season. The running game is sixth in the league and could be even more effective with improved passing. The Titans special teams have been tumultuous; costing them much needed win in New Jersey last Sunday. Just being averaging this week would be severe upgrade. Tennessee is 7-2 ATS as road favorite and must contain Maurice Jones-Drew; otherwise 29th rated pass defense could really be exploited.

Jacksonville feels much better after road win in Houston and thinks they are figuring things out. Defensively, they continue to tweak the pass-rushing elements of its 3-4 defense. The idea is to cause uncertainty and Kerry Collins isn’t a bowl of confidence at the moment. In order to raise havoc, the Jaguars have to limit RB Chris Johnson, who presents problems in the open field. The Jags may be lousy at home, but they are 17-6 ATS off a road win against a division rival. Give David Garrard time in the pocket and he takes advantage of Titans secondary and suddenly Jacksonville is .500.

3DW Line – Jacksonville by 2

DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Tennessee -3, 41.5

Buffalo at Miami 4:05E CBS

Buffalo and Miami are already in trouble in the AFC East race, and each has a difficult opening three games to thank for it. Miami (0-3 SU&ATS) has yet to win after finishing 11-5 a year ago. All three of their opponents have a winning record this season, thanks in part to playing the Dolphins. Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) has a win over Tampa Bay to its credit but sandwiched that with unimaginable loss at New England and being beaten by better New Orleans club. For the Dolphins, this will be the first divisional test of 2009, and they swept the Bills a year ago as part of a 4-2 SU & ATS mark vs. AFC East rivals. They are just 3-14 ATS as divisional hosts the last six seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS on the road in divisional games under coach Dick Jauron, and 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS against Miami since 2004. Favorites have accumulated an 18-7 SU & 16-9 ATS record in the last 25 series meetings.

Keys to the Game –

Buffalo didn’t blitz as much against Drew Brees, respecting his knowledge and big play talent. That won’t be the case this week, as it will be the kitchen sink and whatever else they can round up as Chad Henne makes first NFL start. If Henne is rattled, the Bills should unleash passing game. It’s a travesty Terrell Owens 185-game streak of pass catches came to an end. Buffalo didn’t bring T.O. in to be decoy, yet he and Lee Evans have 13 total receptions, that is ridiculous offensive concept. Buffalo is 3-10-1 ATS as AFC East road favorites, they will have to avoid being run on like last week (222 yards) if they want to side-step another defeat.

Chad Henne is going to have WTF moments after misreading Buffalo blitzes, which means he better know where tight end Anthony Fasono is at all times, similar to Linus. (Security blanket, work with me) Miami will have to establish running game to take pressure off Henne and the Dolphins O-line should draw confidence from Bills performance last week. The Fins D is third against the run at 66 yards per game and would like to make Buffalo as one-dimensional as possible. Miami desperately needs a W and to reestablish home field edge where they are only 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons.

3DWLine –Miami by 3.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Buffalo -1, 37

Dallas at Denver 4:15E FOX

The Broncos (3-0 ATS) have been the biggest surprise in the NFL in the early going, winning their first three games in the face of an expected rebuilding campaign. Since the miracle at Cincinnati, the Broncos have outscored their next two opponents by a 50-9 margin. If you consider what the Bengals have done since, Denver’s resume looks even stronger. Head coach Josh McDaniels’ team will return home for a showdown with Dallas in Week 4, trying to improve a record of 1-5 ATS when hosting the NFC since 2006. The Cowboys (2-1 SU&ATS) are back on the road after a two-game homestand, making their first trip to the Mile High City since Jay-Z rapped “Hard Knock Life”. Dallas is 7-1 ATS as road favorites of seven-points or less. The last five meetings between these teams have gone OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

How did Denver find the NFL’s top defense after finishing 29th last season? It’s helped playing the Browns and Raiders the last two weeks, nevertheless only one opponent has scored a touchdown on the Broncos this season. This will be truer litmus test, as the last two foes had not capacity to throw the ball down the field, which Tony Romo does. The Dallas QB isn’t always the sharpest knife in Ginzu collection and will take the bait throwing into bad coverage situations. The Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS off a 14-point or more victory and will have to be stout in defensive line and open up offense for Kyle Orton.

As it turns out, Romo has a little Jessica Simpson in him, he likes being the star. Coach Wade Phillips and OC Jason Garrett would just as soon continue to run for 200 yards a game and have Romo make enough plays for Dallas to score 28 points per game. Romo has flair (good and bad), but the coaches would rather see 2nd and 4, compared to 2nd and 10. On defense, Dallas wants to win first down in the trenches, forcing Orton to be playmaker from the pocket. The Boys like their chances in that matchup. The Cowboys are 7-1-1 ATS as small change faves (three or less) and can be expected to use similar coverage tactics on enigmatic Brandon Marshall which worked so well on Steve Smith last Monday.

3DWLine – Denver 1.5
DiamondSportsbook.com Line – Dallas -3, 42.5