NBA Bettors looking for Heroes and Goats

Maybe Boston’s Paul Pierce will be right after all, the Celtics might not be going back to Los Angeles, just for all the wrong reasons. Boston was outhustled, outplayed and coughed up home court advantage quicker than a newborn baby. If you bet the Lakers to win the NBA championship, the odds are mostly certainly stacked in your favor.

After L.A. won the opening game, Phil Jackson’s imposing size and demeanor was appearing even larger with his team’s 47-0 record leading 1-0 in a series. After losing the second game at the star-studded Staples Center, the Lakers added one more to 18-6 ATS record when they are tied in a series and the team that wins the crucial third game of a NBA Finals best of seven is 28-4 to be crowned champs.

Lakers' Heroes

Think back, way back to opening L.A. and Oklahoma City series when Russell Westbrook of the Thunder was making Derek Fisher look older than Emmett Smith in the “Just for Men” commercials. Fisher overcame disastrous playoff start and has increasing become more a factor in each series. With Kobe Bryant not his usual self, Fisher took it upon himself to close-out the Celtics, scoring 11 of his 16 points in the final 12 minutes.

“He won the game for them,’’ said Boston coach Doc Rivers. “Derek Fisher was the difference in the game.’’

Another reason for why Los Angeles was able to emerge victorious at TD Garden and move to 37-20 ATS as underdogs was the continued appearance of Lamar Odom. After being saddled with five quick fouls the first two tilts, Odom scored 12 points on perfect 5-for-5 shooting and snaring five rebounds.

“I was able to get into a nice rhythm,’’ Odom said. “I stayed composed. I took what they gave me.’’

Celtics’ Goats

NBA coaches continually preach in the playoffs – The last game is the last game, put it behind you.

Ray Allen suffered that lesson the hard way and has to follow that advice moving forward. After unprecedented three-point shooting display in Los Angeles, Allen returned to Boston and put up an unlucky 13 shots, none that went thru the net. Fortunately, he missed being in the record books two games in a row, as Dennis Johnson, then with Seattle, was 0-14 in a NBA Finals game.

All of his shots looked flat,’’ Rivers said. “I don’t think he had any legs. Of his 13 shots, he had eight great looks. But all of his shots were short. And all of them were flat.’’ Allen’s inability to score left his team flat, as the Celtics fell to 18-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Pierce proved like the CEO of British Petroleum, talk is cheap and that actions speak louder than words. His 13 for 36 shooting in the Finals speaks volumes for Boston’s chances of winning this series.

Who’s thrown into the spotlight next?

Oddsmakers have the Celtics as 3.5-point favorites to comeback and even the series with total of 190. In order for this to occur Boston’s Big Three has to stay out of foul trouble (which could be difficult with the horrible officiating towards both teams) and be collectively productive. The C’s are 6-1 ATS after SU loss and Kendrick Perkins has to start putting in the same kind of effort Glen Davis is.

Pierce and teammates have to better execute and screen and rolls, because Ron Artest is in Pierce’s grill otherwise. Rajon Rondo was a non-factor starting halfway thru the second period, that can’t happen again. Though it seems opposite, Boston has played better at faster tempo in this series and is 17-7 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite.

Andrew Bynum reinjured his ailing knee Tuesday and it would seem doubtful he will be much of a factor, thrusting Odom more prominently into the next contest. The Lakers are 8-4 ATS off a triumph and were somewhat fortunate Fisher was there to bail them out.

The good news is Bryant seldom has two games in a row this time of year where he isn’t clutch, but Tony Allen does give him fits. Gasol could use more than 11 shots like the last contest, but needs to work harder to demand the ball. His team is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season.

ABC has Game 4 at 9:00 Eastern and the club that shoots the higher percentage is 7-1 and 6-1-1 ATS in previous eight meetings.

Can Orlando make series compelling?

While waiting for the lines to come out on Game 5 between Boston and Orlando, did some perusing to see what the common man was thinking about this series after the Magic upset the Celtics 96-92 in overtime. Some were hilarious, other thoughts were insights into what Joe Average has running around in his dome, even if he still is allowed to drive and place online sports betting wagers.

The most common theme was this is all fixed by David Stern and Orlando was going to come back and tie the series at 3-3, with opinions varying who wins the deciding seventh game. This subject of fixed games will show up later this week in another article.

Many praised Orlando for not emailing it in and wondered aloud if this is the sign of the Magic finally playing up to capabilities or if it was a one night stand and reality comes a callin’ back at home. Most thought it was a gift to take Orlando at +7 seeing that was a two touchdown turnaround (14-point swing) in less than week, regardless of the location.

Equal numbers lambasted Boston for not bringing the necessary determination to close out opponent who had been all but willing to be beaten for large expanses of the series and questioned the Celtics commitment to excellence. What was read into this was they had the C’s minus the seven.

For those that see Stern as the reason the series was extended at least one more contest, it turns out the real culprit was Stan Van Gundy, the Magic coach.

Van Gundy may look like Ron Jeremy’s brother more than his own sibling Jeff; however he made two wise moves before Game 4 even started.

He had witnessed three games and broken down tape and determined Rajon Rondo was too disruptive as defender, especially against Jameer Nelson. Instead of setting single screens which Rondo routinely beat, he set up staggered screens.

This created more room for Nelson to operate, who is a shooter first and passer second as a point guard. Rondo couldn’t use his quickness to jump thru or around two Orlando players and Boston seemed puzzled as to what to do with Nelson in more open areas.

This placed different Celtics big men in no-man’s land and Dwight Howard for the first time had room to work with and the Magic’s offense had continuity, sending them home 16-5 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.

While it’s impossible to gauge the impact, Orlando played more ready from the start. Van Gundy had told his squad no team had EVER come back from 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs (93-0), because they had not placed enough value on winning the fourth game in the series. Most of the Orlando players showed more passion and they own a diabolical angle moving ahead - 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season, with average margin of victory 16 points.

Boston deserves plenty of blame for this series extension. The first aspect is the Celtics play after the third quarter in this East Finals. Most of the time Doc Rivers squad has enjoyed big leads going into the final 12 minutes and NBA contests have a natural ebb and flow, nonetheless after awhile you wonder about a team being outscored 105-78 in the last quarter and beyond. (Outscored all four games)

What has gotten the Celtics to this juncture is team basketball, yet in the last segments of game, a much larger volume of isolation plays are called or run, which is why Boston had such an awful spread record during the regular season by blowing leads for losses or non-covers. Despite the defense, it makes more sense why they are 5-17 ATS after two or more consecutive Under’s this year.

Oddsmakers have Orlando as four-point favorites, but they are only 2-6 ATS when doling out 4.5 or less points at home. Boston right now is not in scurrying mode from one loss –“There's definitely no need to panic. We like the position we're in," Ray Allen said. The Celtics are 15-5-1 ATS as postseason underdogs.

The Magic face a second match point trying to force a sixth conflict and build further momentum. ESPN will be on hand at 8:30 Eastern, with KG and company 11-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite.

Boston on the brink

Talk about anti-climatic; this is exactly the situation the online sports betting world is facing in tonight’s Orlando and Boston Game 4 matchup. Only four times in the history of major sports has a team comeback from a 3-0 deficit (the city of Boston teams has been involved in half of them, one good one bad) and it has never happened on the hardwood.

The Celtics are headed to the NBA Finals whether it be tonight or later this week, but how did the veteran team come so far so fast after playing .500 basketball for 3 ½ months and being a near calamity for backers against the spread?

In hindsight, Boston had variables that were not present to the naked eye, but were just below the surface.

The Celtics have several players that had been thru every imaginable NBA condition. Two years ago they were able to finally taste a championship and thou they failed a year ago, Boston had far less expectations placed on them this season.

While many ranted (including the person that wrote this article) this was just an old team that needed to start refocusing with a different cast, their coach Doc Rivers saw something else.

“This being an older group, it’s probably easier for me to get their focus in the playoffs,” Rivers said. “The goal is right in front of them.”

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might not be able to bring an outstanding performance night after night like in the past, but as their confidence grew in the postseason, each has had spurts of greatness and played true team basketball, with Boston 11-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

Boston has been constructed in way that promotes team play and that has the ability to stifle opponents that are not mentally strong.

Beyond Dwayne Wade, Miami lacked the physical and mental toughness to compete with Boston and fell 4-1. Cleveland was believed to be on their way to being crowned the kings of the NBA, instead they still lacked the scoring power beyond LeBron James, with outside shooters that could drain shots all day against inferior competition, but not under pressure by a defensive team that gave no quarter.

Orlando, the defending Eastern champions, had marched thru the first two rounds of the playoffs like Heidi Montag adding car miles to plastic surgeon.

The Magic thwarted the Celtics a year ago in the East semis, but Garnett wasn’t there. The 2010 version of Rajon Rondo is superior to the one Orlando faced a year ago and Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen and Glen Davis are all better players one season later, as witnessed by their complete thrashing of the blue-clad squad 94-71. Boston is 20-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since the “Big 3” and others were assembled.

This reporter admits to picking Orlando to win the series, but one nagging question was still out there. With Hedo Turkoglu and to a lesser degree Courtney Lee no longer part of Magic contingent, who was going to make big shots at crunch time?

Vince Carter has long been known for being less than clutch in the final five minutes of a contest. Dwight Howard needs to be setup to score and let’s be totally frank, Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and others would never be accused of blood doping, since it would have to go thru their hearts, which they have not shown in this series to date. Orlando might be 17-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more, however they look much closer to the team that is 0-4 as visiting underdogs.

Sportsbooks have Boston as seven-point favorite with total of 187.

When Celtics players were asked about their hockey counterparts blowing 3-0 playoff lead this spring and if outside influences could make them less mentally strong, Paul Pierce said this.
“This team is not complacent,” Pierce said. “We’re too close to our goals. You’ve got a team that’s won the championship so we understand what it takes. We understand the mental toughness that you’ve got to have at this point in the season. So I don’t see any slippage from us and, hopefully, we can close this thing out on Monday.”

The total is at a series low and Boston is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game (second time in the series), while Orlando is 11-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.

Game 4 is set for 8:30 Eastern on ESPN.

Respect your elders

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Online sports betting outlets have Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

NBA Eastern Finals Outlook

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.

After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.
This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

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The King could be overthrown in Boston tonight

LeBron James is supposed to be the best player in the NBA and probably is, but he hasn’t been close to being the best player in this series. King James showed a side of personality not seen often after he gave a lame effort like his teammates in Game 5 debacle.

After losing 120-88 as seven-point home favorites, James had this to say about his 15-point showing.

"I spoil a lot of people with my play," James said. "When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out. So you got to be better.

I put a lot of pressure on myself to be out there and be the best player on the court, and when I'm not I feel bad for myself because I'm not going out there and doing the things I can do. But I don't hang my head low or make any excuses about anything that may be going on, because that's not the type of player or person I am."

It’s a bit presumptuous for James to say he’s had three lousy games in his career, but what basketball fans and those rooting for the Cavaliers want to know, where is the burning desire?
Is the elbow a much bigger issue? Does he find the lack proficiency from his teammates appalling? Does he not trust his coach in being knowledgeable to lead this club? Has he mentally checked out thinking about playing somewhere else?

Cleveland is 24-7-1 ATS off a defeat by 10 or more points, but this was one for the record books. No NBA with a regular season win percentage of .700 or higher had ever lost a home playoff game by 30 or more points. (Thanks Elias Sports)

What can the Cavaliers do to send this to Game 7? Having Mike Brown coach his players might help.

For starters if Antwan Jamison is going to not provide points on offense, get him off the floor, he’s a defensive liability. J.J. Hickson was valuable in the latter part of the season; use his intensity and defense to at least do something on one end of the floor.

Brown has to find an answer for Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to rotate better on weakside passes by Boston, who is feasting in the paint with layups or short jump shots.
Mo Williams either decides to play or should sit. He has yet to guard Rajon Rondo and his offensive production is nil.

Lastly, LeBron has to determine what he wants. His elbow is unquestionably bothering him and he doesn’t trust his own jump shot, passing up at least seven wide open looks he had Tuesday night. But where is the explosiveness to the rim?

Yes, Boston has had a few nice wrinkles to limit James, but does the game’s best player settle for idle dribbles and pass to teammate or use his brute force like in the past and blow to the cup and score or find Cavs teammate standing by himself with wide open look at the bucket with collapsing defense? Interesting to note Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in last 11 outings against teams with winning record.

Boston has outplayed and outhustled its younger opponent and is 7-3 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics don’t want to take any chances.

"We cannot come back here," Kevin Garnett said. "We have to think this is our Game 7 coming up and we cannot afford to have the best team in the league have a Game 7 on their floor. Just not possible."

Oddsmakers have Boston as 1.5-point favorites with total of 196.5, as they go for their second three game winning streak in the playoffs. The C’s are 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season and 17-4 UNDER after a huge blowout victory by 30 or more. Cleveland has its back against the proverbial wall and is 2-5 ATS in last seven as road underdogs and is 16-5 OVER revenging a home massacre loss of 20 points or more.

The biggest deciding factor is LeBron’s mental state. This contest is being played with one day between games and James is shooting 36.1 percent on his meager total of 47 shot attempts, including 0-13 beyond the arc in this East semi-final with less than 48 hours between contests. In the two games Cleveland has won and covered, James is shooting 56.5 percent on 46 shots with two or more days in between outings. The Cavs are 0-6 ATS with one day of rest since April 11.

Game 6 is on ESPN at 8:00 Eastern and if Cleveland can force one more game, they will have two days off between conflicts.

NBA Big 3’s not what used to be

The world moves along at warp speed and today’s My Space is quickly replaced by Facebook in what seems like no time at all. The same is true in the NBA; bring up the term –Big Three- and who doesn’t think of NBA championships with San Antonio and Boston. But like boxer Shane Mosley found out recently, father times waits for no one and you can be discarded rather quickly when the latest thing comes around the corner. Watch for this in the NBA playoff tilts tonight.

Cleveland at Boston 7:00E ESPN

It was just two years ago; General Manager Danny Ainge formed his version of VH1’s “super group”, bringing together Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to play with Paul Pierce. This was immediate success as the trio matched skills perfectly and did ESPN commercials on the way to NBA championship.

But that was then. Now KG cannot play a full season as his once youthful legs are betraying him. Allen can still run an opponent crazy going thru a maze of screens, but the quick-triggered jumper is not as reliable as the old days. Pierce was main force in the championship season and he was “the man” whenever Boston needed a clutch basket. Today he is more of a role player, an additional scorer, not someone who can be counted on regularly.

Its new era in Bean-Town and Rajon Rondo is the new leader. The Celtics now go where Rondo takes them.

After a disappointing regular season that left Boston as the fourth seed, The Three Amigos are trying to keep up with the speedy Rondo and are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason. The Celtics have been playing tremendous basketball, really only having the equivalent of four less than desirable quarters of hoops among its seven games that accounted for both losses.

Rondo is not about numbers, he’s about results. His outside shooting is below average, he still goes “Road Runner” fast and commits more turnovers than necessary, but he’s smarter player today.

Rondo finds the open man sooner, he will make a steal and be gone two steps before his opponent even reacts and runs down a rebound like he knew the angle of the miss just as the shooter released the ball.

After earning split in Cleveland, Rondo and his teammates truly believe they are better than the Cavaliers and he will to abuse more Cavs defenders.

Sportsbooks have Boston as single point home underdogs and the Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS when catching 4.5-point or fewer points at TD Garden and will try to keep lethargic Cleveland squad playing the same way.

When Cleveland fans here about elbow problems, baseball is what usually comes to mind. It’s quite evident LeBron James is laboring with this issue, but this doesn’t mean the rest of the team can’t make shoot and play defense. The Cavs have been outplayed for 6 ½ quarters in this series and everyone will find out a lot in Game 3 about a team that is 7-3 ATS off a double digit home loss.

Phoenix at San Antonio 9:30E ESPN

The Spurs have to win four of their next five games to advance to West Finals and even having its three stars might not be enough to make that occur.

Basketball is five on five with every player having a job to do. Though Tony Parker is coming off the bench, he’s playing starter minutes. (36:05 in Game 2) And even if you take bench scoring in the literal sense, San Antonio was outscored 31-24 by players that came off the Phoenix chairs, which was essentially the difference in 110-102 final.

Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have been carrying this franchise for years, unfortunately they can’t do it alone and need more help. This helps explain 11-25 ATS record revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Richard Jefferson was moreeffective in last contest, but Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner were non-factors.

Phoenix on the other hand showed the depth of the Chinese Red Army. The Suns starters were a step slow, out of rhythm and playing mediocre basketball as they trailed 30-21 after the first quarter.

Coach Alvin Gentry had just pleaded with his team to give more effort and in came Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Louis Amundson and instead of folding like a burrito on Cinco de Mayo, Phoenix exploded with increased energy, scoring, rebounding and playing tighter defense. The starters watched as their teammates led the surge on San Antonio and by halftime the game was knotted up at 51.

Dudley in particular was the star of stars. "He was my player of the game -- he made some huge plays for us," Steve Nash said. "He did a bunch of things that more than anything gave us energy and confidence and changed the game and enabled us to come back and tie at halftime just because of his energy and spirit."

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich seconded that notion: "Jared Dudley changed the whole game. He came in and was a monster. He was committed to the boards, and it was infectious."

The Spurs need this type of player to help the power trio against Suns team that is shining bright with 20-4 and 17-6-1 ATS record since Mar.14. San Antonio is six-point favorite with total of 205.5 and is 8-3 ATS off a straight up and spread loss. This is a conflict they need to take control of throughout and are 10-3-1 UNDER at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Phoenix has covered eight of last 11 contests as road underdogs and is 17-6 OVER away from Arizona after consecutive games as a home favorite.

Boston vs. Cleveland Series Preview

The first conflict of the conference semi-finals will take place in Cleveland, when Boston’s veteran team pays a visit. The Cavaliers are deep and varied team and are still a -125 futures wager to be the NBA champions later in June, while Boston fooled many by not being the old fogies many had believed against Miami and hurried the Heat out of the playoffs. This has been a series where the home teams have ruled the last several years.

(1) Cleveland vs (4) Boston

The waves were crashing on the north side of Lake Erie in Canada, some as high as six feet, as Cleveland fans got the news that nothing was structurally wrong with LeBron James right elbow and they let out a collective “Whew”.

The Cavaliers have a number of edges coming into this series in the personnel department and will look to exploit them. James is the best player in the NBA and plays the type of unselfish basketball that benefits all his teammates. From the Sports Network we find LeBron is only player in NBA history to accumulate at least 1,900 points, 525 rebounds and 475 assists in his first 65 career postseason games.

The Cleveland guards are not spectacular, but don’t need to be. Mo Williams and Anthony Parker mostly position themselves away from the ball on offense for weakside jump shots and three pointers. Antawn Jamison and his array of shots is the extra scorer coach Mike Brown needed when teams double and triple James. Shaquille O'Neal is shadow of his former self, but with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and energetic Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers really have options in the paint.

Since James arrived, this is the deepest team he’s been a part with Delonte West and Jamario Moon also adding their skills. Cleveland’s greatest strength as a team is their defense and opponents have converted just 44.2 percent against them. The Cavs start this series 14-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making 48 percent of their shots.

Boston proved that five players is better than one taking down Miami and faces a more daunting challenge in the Cavs, whom they eliminated in the postseason two years ago. The Grim Reaper had been reported on the team bus for most of the second half of the season, but the Celtics had several different players step up, like Ray Allen in last series.

Rajon Rondo is lightning quick and for the most part more than compensates for a below average jump shot. He rebounds, penetrates into the lane to score or finds open teammate and though not a great one-on-one defender, he use his quickness to makes steals and get into passing lanes. He and Allen have to dominate the Cleveland guards in scoring and rebounding.

Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have visibly slowed and this is area Boston can’t be destroyed or this series moves along swiftly. Along with Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace (a washout), Pierce and KG are going to have to total 50-60 points each game unless the guards play exemplarily. The C’s come in 9-3-1 ATS as playoff underdogs.

If Boston doesn’t play with the needed energy and gumption, this is five game series if James is 90 to 100 percent. The teams divided four contests and the Over was 4-0. Cleveland is 8-1 and 7-2 ATS at Quicken Loans Arena vs. the Celtics, however they are 1-9 (7-3 ATS) in Boston and will have to deal with boisterous crowd and excited old geezers not ready to call it quits.

3Daily Winners Pick- Cleveland (-425) in six over Boston (+355)

Heat and Suns have to bring A-Game

While the biggest story surrounding game two between Miami and Boston centers around the Kevin Garnett suspension, Heat players know the real issue involves shooting 39.8 percent, scoring 76 points and committing 22 turnovers. They do that again they jump into 0-2 hole they helped dig. At least Miami hasn’t lost at home, something Phoenix can’t say. The Suns players should have listened to local talk radio, as their fans assumed they would be mature and take the game to the short-handed Portland. Instead, they waltzed around and let the Trailblazers steal opening game. Two NBA teams, two NBA situations, the Heat and Suns must address.

Miami at Boston 8:00E TNT

The Heat knew what to expect against Boston, they had already lost to them three times this season, yet once again they failed to find the answer. Dwayne Wade can win a game or possibly even two with the right set of circumstances; however he can’t go at it alone to win a series.

Boston strategy is to do the best they can with Wade defensively, but more importantly, don’t let anyone else become a factor. Other than the former Marquette product, no other Miami player has scored 20 points this season against the Celtics and in series opener, Quentin Richardson was the only other player to reach double digits (15 points).

Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said, "We just did not show a lot of composure. ... To play to that kind of pressure, a little bit of duress, a little bit of adversity, we did not respond well to it." His club is 6-19 ATS is road encounters revenging four or more losses to same opponent.
Boston will miss KG, but coach Doc Rivers will do what he does best, rally the troops for key moments.

“Kevin also facilitates a lot of offense. In the first game, a lot of our open shots came off Kevin being involved in the play. That’s my biggest concern. You’re losing 15 points and, more importantly, you’re losing all the picks, all the postups where they had to trap. That’s big. We’re going to have to try to find some points somewhere.” Rivers also talked about Garnett’s defensive energy and will present this as challenge to Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace and others to pitch in.

Bookmaker.com saw Boston go off as 4.5-point in the first matchup and took revenge and no Garnett into consideration and dropped the Celtics to two-point choice, with the wagering public taking it a step further. The Celtics are now listed as single point home favorites, with steady total of 179.

Boston has won six straight over Miami at home (3-3 ATS) yet is merely 13-26-2 ATS as a home favorite and 21-12 UNDER after they’ve covered the spread this season. The Heat is going to have to force the tempo and make shots. They are 8-0 OVER off a road loss scoring less than 80 points, winning by 7.8 points per game.

Portland at Phoenix 10:00E NBA-TV

The clues were there and the intelligent sports bettor spotted them and played Portland in Game 1. Phoenix was an eight-point favorite with total of 204, suggesting the Suns should have won first round opening tilt 106-98. The score relating to the Trailblazers exactly matched their season total home and away. Phoenix however averages 110.1 points a game and over 112 at home. The numbers didn’t add up and Portland got the upset.

Every typical flaw the Suns have was exposed by outstanding game plan by coach Nate McMillian.

Defensively they pressured Steve Nash early in the shot clock, making him yo-yo the dribble and eat up time. Phoenix prefers to get right into offense and most times they didn’t get anything started until 15 or less seconds. They doubled Amare Stoudemire wherever possible and he needed 19 shots to accumulate 18 points.

On offense, Portland ran when given the opportunity and Andre Miller kept driving to the rim and Phoenix had no answer. This allowed Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge to score in deep. A 14-2 and 11-4-1 ATS close to the season meant nothing after four quarters of playoff basketball for coach Alvin Gentry’s squad.

Nash was candid about how his team played, even if it seemed unusual. “We didn’t quite have the spirit or the energy collectively that we had in the last few games of the regular season,” Nash said. “Sometimes that happens.”

When asked about the importance of this being playoff time he responded, “You can never predict. I mean, I thought we played hard. I just thought we didn’t quite have that spark that we needed,” he said. “I don’t know— biorhythms.”

Phoenix’ compelling season could be all but over with another loss and they are 8-1 ATS at home after a defeat by six points or less this season. The Suns are 8.5-point faves with total of 204.5 and they are 41-24 OVER revenging a same season failure the last three seasons.

Portland has the second best road record in the NBA at 25-17 (26-14-2 ATS) and is 18-6 ATS off a road win this season. It will be imperative for the Blazers to again contain the tempo as assuredly the Suns will want to play at more aggressive pace and they are 21-8 UNDER as visitors when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

NBA Telivised Tilts

It’s a sure sign the football season is nearly complete, when guys in the semi-short pants from professional basketball are on TV to close out the weekend. For many NBA bettors, they have toiled for some time with the daily grind of crunching numbers and attempting to determine if their methodology will work. The NBA offers two quality contests for your viewing pleasure, with the first contest possibly missing key players and the later contest an old school showdown with glorious past.

Denver at San Antonio 1:00E ABC

The Nuggets are uncertain if Carmelo Anthony’s gimpy ankle will allow him to go, after missing Friday’s contest in Oklahoma City. Additionally, Denver is still sorting out the behavior antics of J.R. Smith from eight days ago on the bench. Smith was nearly suspended but V.P. of player personnel Rex Chapman; finally deciding against it, in hopes coach George Karl won’t have any more problems with him forward.

It’s been no problem on the actual court for Denver (31-15, 21-24-1 ATS), having won eight of nine with 4-4-1 ATS mark. The Nuggets surge has been led by guard Chauncey Billups who is averaging a career-high 19.2 points in addition to 5.9 assists. Denver is 25-11 ATS playing against a team with a winning record in the half of the season over the last two years.

While Anthony’s status is up in the air for Denver, no such luck for San Antonio, with Tony Parker sidelined with an ankle sprain. The Spurs (27-18, 23-21-1 ATS) aren’t exactly hitting on all cylinders, having lost five of last eight and covering just three spreads. The most damning aspect of the slump is they have not been able to take advantage of six game home stand (2-3 SU & ATS), since after today they take to the road for eight games on “Rodeo Trip.” The Spurs will have to shoot a high percentage with less firepower in the backcourt and are 20-9 ATS when they make 48 to 51 percent of their shots in a game since last season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has San Antonio as six-point favorite with total of 198. The Spurs are just 2-7 ATS on Sunday assignments and 8-1-1 UNDER on this day of the week. Denver comes in 4-11 ATS in last 15 contests with a day’s rest and is 23-7 UNDER as the visiting team if the home team has a .600 or better record on their court. The road team has covered the last five meetings between this Western Conference clubs.

L.A. Lakers at Boston 3:30E ABC

Possibly Boston’s midseason lull isn’t a cause for concern, with 6-10 (5-11 ATS) record since Dec. 27 and this veteran squad will turn it on once the scent of playoff basketball is in the air, yet watching them play you still wonder where the Celtics (29-15, 18-26 ATS) are headed. Ray Allen seems to be aging game to game, lacking the ability to create his own shot off the dribble. In NBA language that is called “catch and shot” player and not many elite teams have this type of guy in the starting lineup.

All was thought to be well with Kevin Garnett back, one problem he looks slow, like his long aging and increasing injured legs are starting to fail him, particularly on defense. Guard Rajon Rondo needs Google search to find the basket with as wayward as jump shot has been. Boston is also suffering from a lack of cohesiveness with Garnett and others taking turns missing game. Boston is 13-7 at home with sickly 6-14 ATS record.

The Lakers (36-11, 22-24-1 ATS) probably feel like their home was foreclosed on, playing their seventh road game in a row, all in the Eastern Time zone. The purple-clad team from L.A. is 4-2 SU and ATS thus far, with three wins in a row and starts heading back west tomorrow, with a stop in Memphis to conclude the road trip, against one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Los Angeles however is just 1-6 ATS if the opponent has a winning home record.

The Lakers will attempt to thwart Boston’s interior defense, by shooting well from the perimeter and they are 31-14 ATS when they make 39 to 45 percent of their three point attempts. Los Angeles has covered six of last seven Sunday contests and is 4-1 OVER since falling at Cleveland. Boston 0-8 against the number taking on Pacific Division squads and is 20-7 OVER off a SU loss. The one-point favored Lakers have covered once in previous five visits in Bean-Town.

NBA Betting Opportunites

In the two televised games on TNT tonight, a special situation occurs you don’t see every night. Boston and Dallas are the two road teams that are on television and they rank first and third respectively in the NBA for the best straight up road records at 16 -6 and 16-8. Their opponents are both in the Top 10 for the best home records, winning over 73 percent. This leaves NBA sports bettors to not only to try and figure out spreads, but also contemplate money line possibilities.

Boston at Orlando 8:00 Eastern

The Celtics (29-13, 17-25 ATS) have the second best record in the Eastern Conference behind Cleveland. This veteran club is 16-6 on the road, but is far from a good bet despite their success. Boston is merely 11-11 ATS in the visiting green uniforms; however it’s hard to blame them for merely being average. The Celtics have been labeled a road favorite 16 of their 22 road excursions and they are 12-4 SU, a very solid record. In those games they have won by an incredible 8.2 points per game, yet are 7-9 ATS, which ends up being more an indictment of the opposition, than of Boston.

The Orlando Magic (29-16, 21-21-3 ATS) have played 10 of last 14 away from their central Florida home and will be in more familiar surroundings with four of their next five outings. The Magic are 16-4 SU at Amway Arena (5th best home record) and punish visiting clubs by 10.4 points per game. In the gambling world, this type of success will bring high numbers from oddsmakers, which is why Orlando is not so magical 10-9-1 ATS at home.

The Celtics only recently got Kevin Garnett back after he missed 10 games and while the defense has picked up immediately, the offense is lagging behind. Boston averages 99.7 points per game, but has only reached that figure twice in last nine tries. This explains recent 3-6 ATS record, including losing five in a row. The Bookmaker.com oddsmakers have handed out the typical number for these evenly matched teams, making the C’s a four-point underdog with total of 187.5.

Boston is deceiving 10-20 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season (they win by 5.4 PPG). Orlando lost at Memphis in previous game and is splendid 34-12 ATS off a road defeat over the last three seasons. The road team has won three in a row in this matchup, including the Magic totaling a mere 77 points at home on Christmas Day, losing by nine as 5.5-point favorites. They are 23-11 ATS revenging a home loss. The total is the lowest in 11 regular season games at the city Walt Disney made famous and six of last eight have played UNDER the number.

Dallas at Phoenix 10:30 Eastern

If the earlier game looks defensive-minded, this Western Conference conflict will alter that situation from the opening tip. Dallas (30-15, 20-25 ATS) is a rock solid 16-8 on the road (15-9 ATS), winning by over four points per game. The Mavericks seem to be more comfortable away from home, despite having same winning percentage. This is determined by Dallas winning by just 1.5 points per game at American Airlines Center. Their one point 108-107 win over Milwaukee Tuesday got them into the NBA record books and it’s hard to determine if the Mavs are good or just lucky, as that win was their 10th straight victory by a single digit, tying the St. Louis Hawks from 50 years ago. Dallas is 47-26 ATS on the road after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.

Phoenix (26-21, 22-24 ATS) is no longer on the rise. After starting 14-3, the Suns have been setting, losing 18 of next 30. In that first part of the season, Phoenix at least gave a passing interest in attempting to play defense, allowing 104.5 points per game, since then the Suns have greater disinterest is halting opponents from scoring, now ranked next to last in points allowed at 107.9.

Phoenix is above average 17-6 at Planet Orange with 11-11-1 ATS mark. They have been without two important bench players Leandro Barbosa and Grant Hill, with Barbosa out six weeks after wrist surgery and Hill day to day with bum heel. Also swirling around the desert is the specter of Amare Stoudemire trade, which has him going pretty much everywhere but to a good team. While the Suns big man talks about wanting to win, respect to him means a max contract and his defense and rebounding would generously be described as ordinary. The floundering Suns are 7-21 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.

Phoenix is a 1.5-point home favorite with total of 216 and they are off a 114-109 overtime home loss to Charlotte. The Suns are 20-9 ATS in home games after contest in which both teams scored 105 points or more and are 18-8 OVER after draining a dozen or more three-point shots. Dallas on the other hand is 11-2 ATS as visitors after not covering the spread and 11-1 UNDER after two straight games where they made 50 percent of their shots or better.

The Suns are playing into triple revenge and has lost five of last six to the Mavs and needs to show some defensive acumen to improve home record.

Beers with Red Wydley

We’re sitting here at Alice Cooper’s restaurant in downtown Phoenix with professional gambler and sometimes writer Red Wydley. Red (not his real name) lives in Nevada and has been a long time gambler who has managed to survive as bettor and golf hustler for years and he was in Phoenix area playing golf with “friends” and agreed to sit down with me and share his thoughts about the NBA and upcoming playoffs.

3Daily Winners: What were your general impressions of the NBA season and did you have successful season wagering?

Red Wydley: I thought the season was better than in the last few years, there were more watch-able games and matchups that were at least viewable. I don’t watch a ton of NBA games; I more follow boxscores and patterns of teams play. That’s not to say I don’t watch any games, mostly the last 15 or so to see who looks right for the playoffs. I won betting the NBA, but what the hell, I should, that’s how I make money to live.

3DW: The NBA is the last bastion in professional sports where the best teams win the championship, not the hottest at the time. Recent examples in other sports are St. Louis and Philadelphia in baseball and the New York Giants and almost Arizona in football. With how this works in the NBA, that takes away a lot of the drama and who doesn’t think the NBA Finals will have the Lakers, Cleveland or Boston, what do you think?

Red: I think that was a really long question. You’re probably right, but what’s wrong with that? If those are the three best teams, fine. In the other sports, star players aren’t as important as the NBA. The best teams have the best players, if the best player doesn’t play his best, than his team will lose, like what happened with Kobe (Bryant) in the finals last year. The other sports have more players that are dependent on one another for success. You mention the Cardinals winning the World Series, who remembers who won the MVP? The Giants got confidence from losing to New England and later beat them in the Super Bowl, that doesn’t happen in the NBA.

3DW: The big story as the playoffs start is the report that Kevin Garnett might not play at all, what does that do to Boston’s chances of repeating?

Red: Kills them. Garnett is the heart and soul of the Celtics, but not there most clutch player. Almost every NBA champion has had two superstars and third player who made generous contributions. Paul Pierce is ruthless at crunch time and Ray Allen hits big shots all the time. Garnett is a contributor and defensive leader, not the guy. Think of him a Ray Lewis of the Ravens. You can play great defense, but somebody has to score. Who takes Garnett’s place, Marbury? (Laughing out loud) By the way nice shirt, how did your wife let you out of the house?

3DW: I actually like it, moving ahead, Chicago won 12 of last 16, can they upset Boston?

Red: Oh my god no. The Bulls made a run to make the playoffs with (Derrick) Rose and good players at guard and wing spots. Garnett’s absence gives the Bulls a chance to win one game, two if they are really lucky. Rajon Rondo is quicker than any Bulls guard and I expect Doc Rivers to punch the ball inside to (Kendrick) Perkins and (Leon) Powe, whose going to stop them, Joakim Noah? Maybe with his dad’s tennis racket. Most people forget how well the Celtics shoot the three-ball. Five games tops.

3DW: Detroit was one of the biggest disappoints in the NBA this season, can this aging team even win a game, or is Cleveland a best bet in sweep.

Red: The Pistons should win a game, as long as it’s a best of nine. I’ve watched the Pistons play four times the last month and this is a team that needs to be blown up like Phoenix. Detroit plays like they could care less and they lack cohesiveness, with a crummy mix of players. If Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton have a terrific game together, maybe the Pistons take one; I don’t even see that happening.

3DW: Orlando may have been the best bet in the NBA (50-32 ATS), but they closed with 4-5 record, how do you see series with Philadelphia and can they beat Celtics?

Red: The Magic played real bored, even when they were fighting for second seed in April. The playoffs should energize them, but Orlando will have tougher time with Sixers than most think. Philadelphia is quicker than Orlando, even with lead-footed Andre Miller playing. I’ll take the Magic in six with closer games than people will expect. I give Orlando a chance to knock off Boston without Garnett, though I’d rather make that bet with your money than mine.

3DW: I’ve read and seen coach Jerry Sloan talk about his Utah club that has played with less enthusiasm than Lindsey Lohan after breaking up with gal-pal Samantha Ronson, losing seven of nine. Any reason to think Utah wins a game.

Red: Do you want me to see if I can book you as warm-up for Carrot Top? It might be time for Sloan to turn coaching reins over to somebody else. I think they have given up like 112 points (113.1) a game in their last 10 except for playing the Clips and that doesn’t count anyways. Lakers fans will only see the Jazz twice in the playoffs.

3DW: San Antonio and Dallas both showed heart to finish the season, setting up Texas 3vs6 showdown. This series is always about the visitor, what happens?

Red: I’m looking forward to this series. Reminds me of Ali-Frazier’s third fight. Two teams past their prime, but showing courage to the end. San Antonio will benefit from having three, two days of rest if the series goes at least six games. I like the way Dallas is playing right now and the home court means nothing in this series, betting Cuban’s in seven.

3DW: You mention the breaks between games; does it bother you as much as it bothers me?

Red: Hate it, hate it, hate it. I understand the whole TV revenue aspect, but the first round goes on for what seems a month! When I was kid, I remember going out to eat on Mother’s Day and she was pissed because my dad wanted to get home to watch Game 7 of the Finals between Milwaukee in Boston. It was the last game of the whole deal, which today is about the first or second game of the second round, ridiculous.

3DW: I concur. Do you think New Orleans can upset Denver?

Red: I know where you are going with this. If New Orleans was 100 percent healthy, I’d seriously have to consider it, since George Karl has proven to be a sap of the playoff coach. I’ve made enough money to stay at the Four Seasons for a month, betting against him in the playoffs. He does a lousy job making adjustments, but this team is different as Chauncey Billups brought winning attitude and they have the right mix of players with Carmelo, J.R. Smith and (Chris) Anderson adding more flexibility. I can see where people would like the Hornets as they are really made for playoff basketball, just not this year.

3DW: In the 4vs5 series, there are intriguing potential individual matchups. Dwayne Wade vs Joe Johnson and Yao Ming vs Greg Oden, what do you see occurring?

Red: You’re joking right? Am I on new episode of Punk’d? Johnson is a good NBA player, but not even in the same class as Wade. If Johnson has to guard Wade without help, he’d wish he never left Phoenix. I only saw Portland play three times and Oden missed each game. I spoke to one of my contacts earlier and asked him about this specific matchup and he confided that Oden will probably only guard Ming about a third of the time with (Joe) Przybilla and (LaMarcus) Aldridge all splitting time. As far as series, have to do more home work, preferring Blazers and Heat looking at your ugly shirt.

3DW: OK, quick questions needing quick answers. Biggest chance for first round upset?

Red: Dallas

3DW: The East Finals has …?

Red: Cleveland and, and Orlando?

3DW: Notice the hesitation. The West Finals has?

Red: You get paid to observe people? Lakers and Denver.

3DW: The best bet to make on NBA champion?

Red: The Lakers.

3DW: Why?

Red: Do you want quick answers or not? Since being embarrassed at Boston in Game Six of the Finals, the Lakers have only had one mission, get tougher and finish. Andrew Bynum will help, Kobe wants ring without Shaq and Phil (Jackson) wants to go down as the greatest NBA coach ever. Your turn to buy the beer.

3DW: Thanks for the time and the beer and good luck with golf tomorrow.

Red: Your welcome, god that is an ugly shirt, what’s that tag say –Rejected by Goodwill.

Extra Large Eastern Confrontation in Orlando

The time has arrived and its crunch time for Boston. Not in the manner the defending kings of the NBA has envisioned, competing for the best record in the NBA, which helped them win the title last season. This is different, playing for the second seed in the Eastern Conference, since they have about as much a chance of catching front-running Cleveland as Rush Limbaugh doing a live interview on MSNBC.

The Celtics and Orlando have 18 defeats, thou the Magic have played two fewer games, which could work to Boston advantage should they lose. The Celtics are attempting to reinsert Kevin Garnett back into the starting line-up at his regular minutes. Though Garnett has yet to play 20 minutes in a game since returning, the Celtics have won all three games (2-1 ATS) upon his return after producing 7-6 and miserable 3-10 ATS record while he was away.

"We have such a great chemistry when our starting five is out there," Celtics forward Paul Pierce said after defeating the Clippers 90-77 Monday. "We don't like him on the bench. We like him on the floor."

Though coach Doc Rivers squad is 38-23 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 2007, injuries have robbed them of depth and useful minutes off the bench. Workhorse Leon Powe is out with a knee strain. Tony Allen hasn't played since Feb. 11 after injuring his left thumb and his exact return is in doubt for the remainder of the regular season. Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine have all spent time in the trainer’s room of late.
Being able to muster the courage and resolve against an equally beat-up San Antonio team last week for a win, showed what this team’s soul is made of, however taking on a young and up and coming team seeking to dethrone the king is another adventure. Orlando is 27-7 and 20-14 ATS at the Amway Arena and knows this is big.

"There is a lot on the line," said Magic point guard Rafer Alston. "We'd better be prepared for battle."

The Magic understand the road to NBA Finals still goes thru Boston. Being this late in the season, the results are magnified and Orlando is in a mild scheduling disadvantage. After tonight, the Magic have to play five of last 11 contests on the road, which hasn’t been a conundrum having the second best road record at 25-11 (25-11 ATS). Why Stan Van Gundy’s team can’t let opportunity slip away is only three of the Celtics remaining nine contests are away from TD BankNorth Garden.

Two games against New York hardly prepares a team for a defensive struggle, yet that is what is in store for the Magic. Orlando has to be ready for possession by possession basketball and is 16-3 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 or more percent of their shots this season.

The oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have the Magic as 3.5-point favorites, with the drifting to 191. Orlando is 15-5 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more for two straight games and 9-1 UNDER breaking the century mark in points scored three consecutive contests. Boston does get to play the underdog role often and is 12-3 ATS as a pooch of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Celtics are 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

ESPN will broadcast this influential affair starting at 8 Eastern, with Orlando having won four of last five at home, with three covers.

Home court is everything to Cavs and Celtics

Last season when the Cleveland Cavaliers altered their roster to help change the look of the team, this became the first step to changing the mind-set of the franchise. Cleveland for some time had seen the writing on the wall, when LeBron James contract was up, he would be not only interested in getting a maximum deal, he wanted to win championships, not being satisfied to lead the NBA in scoring or other rudimentary details of being a top player.

With additional shuffling of the roster, the Cavaliers have eliminated the 21 game difference between them and Boston from last season and has a two game lead over the Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference and they will look to build on that differential with a trip to Bean-town.

Cleveland (48-12, 39-21 ATS) has always been a defense-first team under coach Mike Brown, but this year things changed. The Cavs learned a valuable lesson last season from the defending champions; you have to bring it every night. Cleveland leads the NBA in fewest points allowed at 90.3 per game and field goal percentage at 42.7 percent. Because of their ability to defend, they are 26-9 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent of their shots. With Cleveland having chosen to play hard every game, that explains why they are tied with the best record against the spread and have the best point differential in the league at +9.3.

Like Boston (48-14, 33-29 ATS), the Cavs have made defense their calling card, nevertheless you still have put the ball in the basket. James is having MVP-caliber season and point guard Mo Williams has been a big part in being another offensive weapon, both scoring and distributing the ball. He’s helped cultivate the objective.

“We got one goal,” James said win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. “That’s to win an NBA championship.”

Cleveland is 10-1 SU and ATS against the Atlantic Division, with the lone straight up loss coming on the first night of the regular season at Boston 90-85, as six point underdogs. That night quickly drove home a point for James and his teammates in case they may have forgotten from last spring. Win the home court advantage for the playoffs.

The home team won all seven games between these teams in the postseason last year, which was the main reason Boston was able to advance. This series has been dominated by the home team, with a double bakers dozen total of 14 consecutive home triumphs (7-7 ATS).

The Celtics also know the importance and are struggling some, without their leader Kevin Garnett. Boston is only 4-3 in last seven outings, with two covers. The usual defensive intensity is not their, having surrendered 97.4 points per game, compared to 92.6 on the season.

Boston did light up New Jersey for 115 points in last contest and is 13-4 ATS after a game where they made 55 percent or more of their shots and 12-4 against the spread after scoring 110 or more points. Coach Doc Rivers is trying to find minutes that make sense for and Stephon Marbury and Mikki Moore, their late season acquisitions.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as two-point favorites, with a total of 184. The C’s are 25-5 and 16-14 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden and are 9-0 OVER off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Cleveland is 21-11 and 18-14 ATS as visitors and 26-13 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.

ESPN will have the telecast of this anticipated matchup stating at 8 Eastern, with the Cavs 1-8 and 6-2-1 ATS in last nine visits to Boston.

Lakers Playing Respect Card in Beantown

Revenge can be such an ugly word and today’s athlete doesn’t always find it to be a compelling argument to go out and give it everything you have. Choose a different say, “embarrassment” or even worse “disrespect” those are fightin’ words in this era. Players of today make a lot of money, which leads to bigger egos and when their friends and hangers on tell them they were essentially Punk’d, that’s not going to sit well. For the Los Angeles Lakers, they return to Boston for the first time since Game Six of the NBA finals, where they embarrassed 131-92.

“We had our most disappointing moments on that Boston Celtic court in Game 6,” Lakers coach Phil Jackson stated. “To be not only beaten, but humiliated, in a game like that to end the series, and have them celebrating and throwing (stuff) all over the court, disrupting the game with 2 1/2 minutes left to go. It was in your face and everybody remembers that. There’s a certain element of, you know, we have some serious work to do.”

The Lakers (39-9, 24-23-1 ATS) relieved some of that embarrassment on Christmas Day, with their 92-83 win as two-point home favorites. Back then Boston was in the midst of playing their worst basketball of the season, winning twice in nine games. The competitive nature of elite athletes, they want to beat others who are also at their best, which is exactly where the Celtics are at present, having won 12 in a row (9-3 ATS).

For L.A., this almost becomes a crusade of sorts with so many factors working against them.

Just like in last year’s finals, the purple-clad Lakers will be without center Andrew Bynum, who will miss eight to 12 weeks after tearing the medial collateral ligament in his right knee. This will be game five of a six-game road trip (4-0 SU and ATS) and doesn’t go unnoticed in the Lakers locker room; this will be their fifth game in seven days, having to play last night in Toronto, while Boston had the night off. Bryant and the Lakers will try and build on recent success which has them 12-3 ATS playing back to back road games.

Pau Gasol tried to sum up the team’s feelings. “Last time we played there it was a pretty bad game for us,” he said. “I’m looking forward to bounce back there and prove a point.”

Boston (28-22 ATS) will be hell-bent on defending their own turf, where they are 24-2 and 16-10 ATS. The Celtics have followed up winning the championship, with quite an encore thus far with 41-9 record, best in the NBA. They will welcome back Kevin Garnett who has missed the last two games due to illness and look to sustain winning ways. Boston is 11-3 ATS in home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season.

Bookmaker.com has Boston as six-point pick with total of 204.5. The Celtics could have the edge being 12-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200. The Lakers will attempt to counter posting 17-6 ATS record in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive outings.

With contrasting styles of play, tempo will be important. L.A. is 17-4 OVER after three or more consecutive wins this season, winning by almost seven points a game. On the other hand, Paul Pierce and his gang (possibly poor choice of words) is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more two straight contests, with average margin of victory 13 points.

The excitement starts at 8:05 Eastern on TNT with the C’s 4-1SU and ATS in last five meetings in Beantown.

Eastern Conference Conflict

Its one game out of 82 during the regular season and its true ramifications won’t be felt until later, if at all. Nevertheless, for the Orlando Magic, their goal is to make this a magical night and defeat the reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics. Orlando already has the best record in the Eastern Conference (a half a game over Cleveland) and believes they have closed the gap from a year ago and are true competitors to be conference champions.

Jameer Nelson believes the Magic are the equal or extremely close of being on par with the Celtics. “They’re a great team. We’re a good team,” said Nelson. “We’re trying to get to where they are.” It’s hard to argue with Nelson on his point studying the numbers.

If you discount New York, who is learning to play Mike D’Antoni basketball, Orlando is second in the East in points scored at 102.3 and Boston is third at 100.9. The Celtics do shoot at a higher percentage (48.1 vs 46.1), but a large part of that is a matter of preference, as the Magic make over 10 three-points a game, with approximately one-third of their shots beyond the arc. Boston runs a more conventional offense in attempting nine fewer long shots a contest.

Orlando also hopes to learn what a few others believe. Boston players are well-known in the league for talking more garbage then just about anybody. If opponents let this “smack” talk get to them, game over for Kevin Garnett and the rest of the yappers. However, if a team can maintain its poise and just play with the Celtics, the belief now is they tend to become quieter and in turn less intimidating.

For NBA bettors, there is a plethora of great angles from which to choose, it looks like a $5.99 all-you-can-eat buffet at the Trends table. Boston jumped on Miami early last night and coasted to 98-83 win as 5.5-point favorites. The C’s are 24-11 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days and amazing 71-42 ATS in road contests period, over the last three seasons. Doc Rivers has sold his club on playing one game at a time (besides how else would you do it) and they are 18-8 ATS when playing against top-level teams with a win percentage of 70 percent or higher since last season. When facing mad bombers like the Orlando, few problems, with 37-22 ATS record versus 3-point shooting teams making 36 percent of their attempts.

Orlando this season can play the “what ever you can do, we can do better” game. The Magic are back home after sweeping a four game road trip with four covers and are the best road squad in the NBA. They are 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 14-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. The largest defeat Dwight Howard’s team has suffered was at the hands of Boston 107-88 as 8.5-point road underdogs and they are 22-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Though Orlando is one spot behind Boston in field goal percentage defense at third, the Magic are perfect 12-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Orlando as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 192.5. The Magic may have two psychological edges in this meeting in Central Florida. The first is Jameer Nelson missed the Dec.1 meeting and is back playing the best basketball of his NBA career and the Magic have won six in a row at home over the Celtics (5-1 ATS) giving them a further boost of confidence. The teams are a combined 21-13-1 UNDER in home/road dichotomy, with Boston 11-2 UNDER after four straight wins by 10 points or more and the Orlando 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more four straight outings.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy is trying to keep this one game in perspective. “I’ve said all along, and I honestly think it’s true: If they’ll give us two wins for the Boston game, then I’ll make it bigger than the other games,” Van Gundy said. “Otherwise, it’s not.”

While the coach may feel this way, not all of his players are buying what the coach is selling. “It means a lot,” Magic forward Rashard Lewis said. “Obviously, Eastern Conference game, one of the best teams in the conference, last year’s champion. We’re at a point where we want to get home-court advantage throughout the whole playoffs, so this game means a lot. At the end of the season, it’s going to come down to games like this.”

No matter what, this is the opener on TNT NBA Thursday starting at 8 Eastern and it should be compelling.