NFL Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it’s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let’s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ’07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ’95 to ’01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it’s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let’s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends

I’ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ’93, you’d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:

*Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ’09 Divisional Round.

*The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ’05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

*In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

*In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER’s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

*There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number

There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:

*The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ’04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ’04.

*The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ’03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

*Dating back to ’96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

*Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

*There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends

Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ’93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:

*Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ’04, including three straight outright losses.

*There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

*In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ‘98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

*Bettors haven’t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ’93 in the Divisional Round, this “smart money” just 24-29 ATS (45%). What’s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

*The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move.

*Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ’05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends

As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let’s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:

*Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ’99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

*The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ’93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

*The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ’93, this “smart money” has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends

Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.

*Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ’93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

*Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ’04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

*The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ’93.

*Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend’s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records

Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ’04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:

*All four of this year’s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

*This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

*Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

Trends based upon Statistical Traits

Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week’s Wildcard games.

*Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ’93. However, since ’02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

*Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

*The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

*Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

*Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ‘07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

*Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ’93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ’03.

*Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ’93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

*To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let’s move over to the defensive side of the ball.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’93, so we aren’t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

*Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ’96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

*A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ’93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

*Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ’93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

*When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ’93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

*Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ’93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

*It’s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

*Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ’93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

Man, I love doing this! I am always astounded about the things we can find. Just think, in the Wildcard Round, it was most important to have shown the ability to score points and throw the football. Here, in the Divisional Round, the run game takes precedence. Any guesses on what it will be next week? We WILL find out when we’re back to look at Conference Championship Sunday! Good luck this weekend.

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Can Denver really pull the upset?

Hard to fathom coach George Karl put in more then 10 minutes since last Thursday in preparation for Houston for Game 1 on the Western Conference Finals. Karl’s club will be well rested with six days between games and anxious to show the basketball world they belong. He’s also wise enough to know, no matter how bad the Los Angeles Lakers appeared at times in last series, the Rockets were not able to defeat the Lake Show four times, which is Denver’s mission.

One of the most difficult aspects of handicapping a series is forgetting about the entire regular season. The Lakers won 65 games during the regular season; Denver tied a franchise best with 54 W’s. Los Angeles had the look of a champion, more than doubling the Nuggets average scoring margin per game (7.7 vs 3.4), showing their superiority.

It’s very easy to look at the Lakers against these upstarts and asked the question of Denver – What have you done?

This is where the lines start to blur, causing consternation. The Nuggets have won 22 of last 27 games and to prove how impressive this number is, they have covered the spread 20 times, including all 10 playoff games. Consider oddsmakers really can’t put up numbers to draw bettors to bet bad numbers with so few of games, thus have to list a fair number to attract action on both sides. To think Denver has bested the line maker 10 straight times, that is awfully impressive.

Denver’s strength’s revolve around Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Each can be dynamic scorer and Billups makes ‘Melo better, especially at this time of year with ability to distribute. Billups brought defensive toughness over from the Motor City, giving the Nuggets defenders help in the front and back courts.

Denver has a swat team in the frontcourt, with Nene and Kenyon Martin and “The Birdman” Chris Anderson. The Nuggets are far from a top notch defensive team like Cleveland, but with these players contesting every shot within 12 feet of the basket, nothing comes easy. To show the change in mindset, Denver is 8-0 ATS after three straight games when both teams scored 100 points or fewer this season.

The Lakers are not to be dismissed; it’s just not as clear where they stand. The only constant is inconsistent effort. Phil Jackson used a wise move before Game 7 to take the pressure off his team for contradictory performances, by saying he wasn’t sure what Houston team would show up for the series finale, since it was the Rockets who were up and down to the Zen Master’s way of thinking.

It’s easy to forget Boston played two Game 7’s the first two rounds last season, before finding the right rhythm and becoming NBA champions. Los Angeles plays very disjointed right now. Losing Games 4 and 6 so badly to Houston, only underscored their vulnerability against a team who wanted it more than they did. Ask any NBA expert or sharp sports better right today who is the better team and you’ll get either a blank stare or the eyes will move to upper right, as they contemplate answer before speaking.

One perception of Los Angeles appears as true today as last year. How Andrew Bynum goes, so likely to will the Lakers. In games where he is involved mentally and physically from the start, the Lakers play better and have more physical presence. In other contests where he is lazy defensively and draws quick fouls, he retreats like a turtle into his shell and is non-factor. Bynum’s importance is proven in numbers other than wins and losses.

The Lakers margin of victory during the regular season was 1.8 points per game more with Bynum in the line-up. While that figure doesn’t sound like much, it’s a 26.4 percent difference. An easier to comprehend method is to look at Bynum’s play in the last four games against Houston. In the wins (both at Staples Center), he had 28 points, 14 rebounds and just four total fouls. In the losses, ZERO points, 9 boards and six early fouls that ended up in serious bench time.

The Lakers won and covered three of four meetings this season and are opening at home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS against Denver in L.A. The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com have Los Angeles as -300 favorites to win the series and have them as 6.5-point favorites to win the opener, with total of 215. Kobe Bryant won’t have to face such individual defensive pressure like the last series and his team is 11-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive Unders. Expect the Lakers to want to open it up and they are 16-4 OVER in home games after a combined score of 165 points or less.

Denver has 100 percent extreme confidence coming into the series, plus will want to open up a can of “Want To” to express to people just how good they are. The Nuggets are at the top of their game at the moment and are 13-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent or more of their shots since Game 42 this season.

Can Denver upset the Lakers the way they are playing, undoubtedly if L.A. continues to put forth the same effort. It isn’t a reach however to believe the Kobe and friends realize they are four wins away from repeat trip to The Finals and elevate their game to new heights. About all we can tell at the moment is Denver is ready and the Lakers are capable, the drama begins in ESPN at 9:05 Eastern.

Second Half NBA Comebacks and Failures

How many times have you heard somebody say “just watch the final five minutes of the game” when describing the NBA? The reasoning behind this statement is basically anything can happen for the first 43 minutes and it really doesn’t matter. Leads come and go, sometimes even quite large leads.

Since the 2003 season, do you know what the largest lead a team had in a game that they ended up losing straight up? (hint: it happened this season) I’ll give the answer at the end of the article. Maybe watching the final five minutes of a game is fine for a fan, but sports bettors need to know more about the dynamics of a game to assist them in handicapping.

I like to look at basic occurrences in a previous game or games and see how a team reacts in their next game. A dynamic that happens frequently in the NBA is when a team comes from being behind by a big margin to win the game outright. I wanted to see if there were any angles worth noting in a team’s next game after such a comeback victory. It would seem like a good spot for a letdown since the team has to be feeling pretty good about themselves to snatch victory from the hands of defeat. Plus, a letdown could occur as a team might have expended quite a lot of energy in their comeback. Starters might have played longer than normal so physical fatigue could be an issue. So could mental fatigue as comebacks require tremendous focus and intensity.

The time frame I used for my research was the beginning of the 2003 season onward and did not include any playoff games. I started with a basic situation of a team in their previous game being down by ten or more points at halftime but who came back in the second half to win the game. Teams that had this type of win in their previous game only covered the spread 41.8% of the time, 110-153, in their next game. This is an exceptionally easy angle to look for that has produced 58.1% winners betting against comeback winners since 2003. The Under had a slight edge at 52.1%.

I could end this article here and be pretty happy with providing that 58.1% stat all by itself. (it would also save me hours of work!) But, as always, it is good to try to find additional examples of winning angles to make money with.

I wanted to use halftime scores as they are more etched into players' minds than just taking the biggest point deficit during a game. There is discussion at halftime between coaches and players about first half-performance and how to play the second half with new strategies and ways to attack and defend the other team.

I did research on what happens in a team’s next game after they overcame a ten-point deficit at anytime during the game, not just halftime, and went on to win straight up. Whereas our halftime deficit of 10+ results in a 41.8% ATS rate in the following game, if the deficit occurred at anytime during the game there is a 48.0% ATS rate in the team’s next game. So a halftime margin is more important than a random one. Let’s add some qualifiers to our base trend, down by 10+ at half and winning the game. First, if our team is playing their next game without any rest, there was not much of an improvement betting against them but it did give us a totals situation worth considering with the Under happening in 56.2% of those games.

If our comeback team is favored in their next game they only cover the number at a 39.7% rate as compared to the dogs at 44.8%. Away favorites are 36.8% ATS and home favorites clock in at 40.8%. You don’t want to bet against home dogs, 51.4% winning ATS, but away dogs are only 42.1%. Another nice trend to note is the Under cashes tickets at a 65.8% clip for away favorites.

Would the competition in the next game make a difference in our results? Not in the case of whether the next opponent is a conference or non-conference foe as the ATS records are almost exactly the same in coverage rate. If the previous game where our team rallied to win was against a non-conference foe and now we are playing a divisional rival, the game goes Over the lined total 63.0% of the time. If the opponent in the previous game was a divisional one and this one is a non-conference game, playing against our team improves to a 65.2% mark. Beating a divisional rival after being down to them at halftime obviously carries more of a hangover for our team if they are playing a non-conference squad in their next contest.

I next looked at the location of the games. We did have an improvement of betting against our team from the base rate of 58.1% when no exact site was specified to 63.5% if both the previous game and the current game are on the road. The Under has a 58.8% success rate, also. An interesting twist on looking at the sites of the games is when both games are being played at home with the added condition of our team’s next game being on the road. When that happens, playing against our team in the second game is a 65.9% winner with now the Over being the total to bet on, a 56.8% occurrence.

We have talked about teams that rally from a halftime shortage of ten or more points to win a game. How about the team that blew that lead and lost, how do they do in their next game?

Since the start of the 2003 season, teams off of a blown lead and loss are covering the point spread in 54.7% of their next games. Teams that are playing on the road after their previous game was also on the road win 58.1% of those second games against the point spread. The best advantage came in betting the Under in these games, a 62.7% winning situation.

In this post-blown lead and loss circumstance, dogs and pick’ems were the side to bet on winning 57.0% of the time versus just 51.4% for favorites. In looking at conference and division combinations, there were a couple of situations that improved our base trend significantly. If the second game was against a divisional rival, our team covers the spread 61.5% of the time along with a 60% Under bias. If the previous game where our squad let the lead and game slip away was against a divisional foe and we are now an underdog in our next game, our ATS success rate improves to 64% and our Under bias raises to 72%. Our Under rate improves further to 77.3% if we are now playing a conference foe in the second game.

I increased the halftime deficit to 15 or more points for our team that rallied to win to see if there would be a betting advantage we could use. The only thing that really stuck out was the Over in our base trend occurred 56.9% compared to a 47.9% frequency when the deficit at half was only 10 points or more. Teams must be less focused and play with a little less intensity on the defensive side when they have even a bigger come from behind win.

I asked the question earlier in the article what was the biggest lead a team blew in a game that they lost straight up over the past five years. The answer is 29 points, which Minnesota blew on 12/30/08 on the road at Dallas. The Timberwolves were up by 22 at half and increased their lead to 70-41 early in the third before the Mavs reeled off a 22-2 run to get back in the match.
It’s time to start paying attention to halftime scores so you can take advantage of the profitable situations that happen when a team rallies to win in their previous game and also those games after a team blows their halftime lead and loses.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority penned this piece.