Dallas and Portland looking to survive

The Mavericks and Trailblazers enter their respective contests Thursday with a singular thought, force a Game 7. Dallas passed their first test, routing San Antonio at home, now they will have to elevate their game to stave off elimination as the No. 2 seed in the West. Portland suffered their third “Whose your daddy” pasting by Phoenix Monday night and will try and extend series by eclipsing the Suns by playing at slower pace.

Coaching could be the key

Forget the players from Dallas and San Antonio for a second and think about the two coaches. No coach is going to win unless he has the players, however when the talent is fairly equally distributed, the ability to make adjustments is tantamount.

Rick Carlisle is a good NBA coached, seemingly well-liked and has never won a thing. Greg Popovich is abrasive, a smart-aleck at times and has won four NBA championships.

While this might not be Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley in the 2006 NBA Finals in terms of mismatches it certainly in the neighborhood. More like Ted Danson as Sam Malone (great in Cheers) against his John “Becker” character (good, not great).

Carlisle and his staff deserve props for making adjustments and better utilizing the talent owner Mark Cuban traded for. Brendan Haywood was inserted into the starting lineup Tuesday evening and the offense frequently went thru him and having played with Caron Butler in Washington, the two clicked as Butler scored a career playoff-high of 35 points in 103-81 blowout.

“That was fun,” Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki said and his team is 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season.

Coach Popovich was displeased with what he saw from his squad and said so, “Mostly it was the case of they came with the mental and physical toughness, and our starting group wasn’t very good in either category”

San Antonio is 16-5 ATS at home after a loss by 20 points and Popovich must first get his team back in the proper frame of mind and do a better job in going from the defensive to offensive end, moving the ball up the floor quicker before the bigger Dallas team can be more physical and stunt their flow.

The Spurs are 3.5-point favorites with total of 191 at Bookmaker.com and they are on 9-2-1 ATS rollout and are 22-9 UNDER after four or more consecutive Under’s, which has been the case lately in this series. Dallas will attempt to counter being 4-0-1 ATS after double digit victory and the Mavs are 17-5 UNDER in road games having lost two of their last three.

Maybe the Spurs just had better players, but since Tim Duncan arrived in San Antonio, he and Popovich are 5-0 in seven-game series after building 3-1 lead. This isn’t Carlisle fault, but Dallas has never rallied down 3-1 in a series.

It’s about wins not point differential

Fifty years ago this fall, the New York Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates by 28 runs in the World Series and lost in seven games. Portland coach Nate McMillian might be wise to remind his team that history can be repeated, just on the hardwood instead of grass.

The Trailblazers has been blitzed three times by 29, 19 and 19 points, the latter two could have been much worse. Their triumphs have been by five and nine points respectively. “This series is crazy," Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge said. "We win; they win by 30."

Portland will try to force a seventh game playing at the Rose Garden and they are 13-3 ATS having lost three of their last four contests. "We'll be fine," point guard Andre Miller said after Monday's spanking. "We just have to think about one game. It's time to go home and take care of business."

The Phoenix demolition was capped by its reserves, which outscored the Blazers bench 55-23, led by Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. The duo had been mostly ineffective in this series, but they tallied 39 points between them (Frye-20, Dudley-19) in leading the onslaught.

“When they get going like that, we’re a really good team,” the Suns’ Steve Nash said. “I think it’s great for their confidence because we have a lot of confidence in them.” Phoenix raised their record to 28-13 ATS against defensive teams that allow 46 percent or higher shooting percentage.

The Suns are catching one point and are 7-3-1 ATS as Pick or road underdog since Jan. 31. This 3 vs. 6 matchup has seen the number fall below the total three times in a row and Portland is 8-0 ATS after three or more consecutive Under’s this year.

With the total at 201.5, Phoenix is 8-2-1 UNDER after a 10 or more point conquest and the Trailblazers are 7-0-1 UNDER after losing by double digits.

TNT has both battles with the first game at 8:00 Eastern.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.

Anything possible in Denver for Game 5

For a series that has been either as bland as guacamole or as fiery as 100 jalapeño peppers, this next game has caught the attention of sports fans, bloggers, those on Twitter and sports bettors. Nobody expects Dallas to emerge victorious after losing first three games to Denver, however this is kind of like discovering a television show that you’ve grown to like recently and just found out it is about to be cancelled.

The first two games in Denver were like old episodes of the Andy Griffith show on TV Land. Mildly entertaining, with an outcome you saw coming. When the venue changed to Dallas, all of the sudden it looked like an episode of American Chopper.

Without going over ALL the delicious details, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban loses cool and calls out Kenyon Martin’s mother. After seeing the commotion he caused, he later apologizes. Kind of like throwing confetti and realizing later somebody has to clean it up.

Kenyon Martin evidently bought the Rosetta Stone version of Al Pacino in “Scarface” after Game 3 and let those in attendance and to a lesser degree those on television, share his new language and was particularly fond of one word he used over and over again.

If you are a Dallas fan, you can take solace in the fact; your team avoided being swept. The Mavericks to a man showed guts and pride, seldom associated with teams down 3-0. Dirk Nowitzki looked exactly like the same player that led Dallas to NBA Finals a few years ago. Josh Howard is running like Yao Ming, without the broken bones and showed extreme courage. The Mavs laid it all on the line and is 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.

The Denver bettor and fan is far from disappointed, as the Nuggets covered the spread for a ninth consecutive time. Denver didn’t play A-Game or put forth much defensive effort, yet could look at the box score and see 12 missed free throws cost them a chance at victory.
Coach George Karl had his first off game of the postseason also, failing to have his team switch properly on high screen and rolls and not doubling Nowitzki more, as Martin was schooled like a high-schooler.

There is blood in the water for Game 5 and Denver knows it. They are 38-8 (28-17-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center and 15-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more three straight games this season. Chris Anderson should be back to add energy, after missing last contest and Nuggets fans in attendance will be able to share the same kind of joy Mavs fans did two nights ago.
No need to worry about Carmelo Anthony or Chauncey Billups, they will be fine, it’s K-Mart who needs to take his game from the discount aisle back to blue light special.

DiamondSportsbook.com is offering the Nuggets as 9.5-point favorites and they are 10-1 ATS as a home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points this season. The total will be the highest of the series at 213.5 and Denver has to crash the boards with more authority and is 14-3 OVER in home games after consecutive affairs being outrebounded by opponent by 10 or more.

Is Dallas really capable of another max effort game on the road? The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS on the road after failing to cover four of their last five contests and are 24-10 OVER in the second round of the playoffs.

It’s too bad this won’t be a seven game series, since it has certainly turned dramatic and nobody does drama like TNT, who has Game 5 at 9 Eastern. Still, difficult to not see Denver is 8-2 and 9-1 ATS at home versus Dallas, even if they serve Pepsi Throwback at the Pepsi Center.