L.A. Angels Season on the Brink

Coming into the year, one of the changes that were expected to take place was manager Mike Scioscia’s Los Angeles club no longer to be the dominant force in the AL West. Heavy personnel defections weakened the Angels roster at several positions and other teams in the division were showing improvement. Prognosticators looked to be accurate when the squad from Anaheim started 3-7, thanks to a lack of hitting and unstable bullpen.

The Angels (51-46, +2.2 units) at least started to hit as the season wore, but on May 30, their best hitter Kendry Morales broke a bone in his leg on a walk-off grand slam against Seattle and immediately television pundits declared the Scioscia’s squad DOA.

However, you don’t manage in big leagues as long as Scioscia has without being smart and the troops rallied and fought their way into second place in the division behind Texas (55-40, +1.1), who has played outstanding all year.

Since the baseball season is only in the latter stages of July, it sounds preposterous to call a series “extremely important”, yet that is exactly the case as the Angels travel to Arlington. Tonight opens a huge four-game series and both clubs have one aspect in mind - find a way to win three games.

For Los Angeles, they trail the Rangers by six games in the loss column (this is more important than games back, since everyone is scheduled to play 162-game season) and a series victory brings them within manageable four games, with over two months to play. Losing three of four creates an enormous burden for the Halos, being eight games back in the standings. To put this into perspective, if Texas would have 58-41 record come next Monday and they continued to play at the same pace the rest of the season, that would mean L.A. would have to close the regular season 44-17 to overtake Texas, a very unlikely scenario.

Game 1 of this battle has a distinguished pitching matchup with Jered Weaver (9-5, 3.16 ERA) facing Cliff Lee (8-4, 2.59, 0.937 WHIP). “It’s huge,” Weaver told the Angels’ official website. “We’ve been sitting four, five games back for a while now. … When you’re playing those guys, you pick up a game or lose one. Simple as that.”

Los Angeles is 10-4 in series openers most recently and will need Weaver to pitch superior baseball, which has been problematic against Texas. The 6’7 right-hander is 5-3 with 3.62 ERA vs. the Rangers, however pitching at Rangers Park has been a different story. In Weaver’s last six outings in Arlington he is 0-3, with a 6.17 ERA and his team has failed to win each contest. The Halos have lost five of six against winning teams when Weaver toes the rubber.

Cliff Lee will see the Angels for a second time this campaign, but for the first time wearing a Rangers uniform. The lefty is 6-3 (3.18) lifetime against Los Angeles and 21-7 when pitching on Thursday’s, (Team’s Record) which means he is supplying his team with a series clincher or opening game victory 75 percent of the time.

Betting on sports participants will find Texas as -169 money line favorites. Lee is remarkable 15-2 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last three seasons. (Team's Record) Nearly all online sports betting outlets have the total Un8 and the much-traveled Lee is 43-17 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the same time span.

The veteran port-sider will be taking on Angels lineup that is hitting .329 while averaging 5.8 runs over its last six tries and is 7-1 vs. starting pitchers with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Weaver and other Los Angeles hurlers will have to confront Josh Hamilton, who has hit .394 in 18 July ballgames to raise his average to a Major League-leading .353. Hamilton is a serious Triple Crown threat being third in home runs (24) and fourth in runs batted in with 70. Since the All-Star break, the left-fielder is molten 13 for 30, a .433 average.

The Angels trail in the season series to the Rangers 3-2 and have dropped eight of past 11 at Texas.

"Anybody seen Charley?"

Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been accused of micromanaging at different points throughout the postseason. Whether that point is true or not is debatable, but it is certainly more than what Charley Manuel has done for Philadelphia. Manuel is an old school-type, letting player’s work through difficult situations, so that next time they will be better prepared having experienced the rough parts.

The problem with that mentality is it’s the World Series, Charley. The time when you play for all the marbles, you remember, you brought home the trophy last season. Since Game 2, the Phillies haven’t looked like themselves. Errors in the field, mental blunders, lack of clutch hitting and bullpen issues that just won’t go away.

In Game 4, Manuel should have come out of the dugout, after Johnny Damon ran all the way to third base on a steal and Phillies fielding miscue in the top of the ninth of a 4-4 contest. Even if he was not inclined to do so initially, it would have absolutely necessary after Brad Lidge nailed Mark Teixeira. With Lidge having not pitched in 12 days, the game on the line, a calming influence of a manager to settle everything down, discuss how to pitch to Alex Rodriquez and play ball again.

Instead nothing. Catcher Carlos Ruiz became too conservative calling for fastballs, fearing Lidge’s slider might bounce in the dirt and get away and went after A-Rod with his second best pitch. As ESPN’s Bobby Valentine correctly pointed out after the game, if a catcher, pitcher and ultimately the manager are too afraid to let a pitcher throw his best pitch in fear of the catcher might have a passed ball, maybe the wrong catcher is in the game, since those are fundamental plays worked on March.

A-Rod ripped a single to left for the lead run and Jorge Posada crushed a double to left-center to build 7-4 lead and Manuel never left his dugout post.

Now Manuel has to turn to Cliff Lee and hope he can continue torrid postseason pitching streak. Philadelphia has won all four of Lee’s playoff starts as he’s allowed two earned runs in 33.3 innings. Since the left-hander put on a Phillies uniform, his team is 12-4.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Lee and Phillies as -149 money line favorites, with total of Un8.5. Philadelphia knows their margin for error is eliminated and they’ve won 34 of last 46 home games as favorites. Like all teams that have played the Yankees in the postseason, Philly players are commenting, they aren’t playing their best. Do you think the opponent has something to do with that?

New York is going to ride this three day pitching thing until they can no longer. A.J. Burnett has talked all season long about feeding off CC Sabathia and now is his chance. Burnett can be the pitcher that closes out opponent for the Yankees 27th World Series title. The Yankees are 51-22 after two or more consecutive wins this season and Burnett is 34-15 when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons. (Team's record)

FOX will have Game 5 at 7:57 Eastern, with Burnett 4-20 (Team’s record) as a road underdog of +125 to +150 in his career, however he’s never had a group like this to support him.

Thursday's Top Tips

We had two more winners yesterday and hopefully can pick up a couple more. Kendall has today’s Free Pick and the Top Trend is on the ice with 11-2 record. No systems of note, thus we look to CFB on Saturday in the Big 12 with 88.5 percent Best System. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I don’t recall seeing a pitcher so in the zone like Cliff Lee, who was oblivious to what was going on around him. Lee in baseball vernacular had plus-plus stuff all night long, he was virtually untouchable. Yankees better win tonight or the party is over.

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Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Kansas, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams averaging 34 or more points per game, in a conference encounter. This system checks in at 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent since 1992.

Free Hockey Trend-2) The Vancouver Canucks are 11-2 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the first half of the year over the last two seasons.

Free Football Pick -3) Kendall looks for another winner and takes Virginia Tech as -15.5.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Thursday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

The Platinum Sheet is selling out weekly the at Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.

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Phils fast start has Yankees in trouble

The New York Yankees were left UT-terly dumfounded in Game 1 of the World Series. Chase Utley battled C.C. Sabathia in two at bats, following off strikes until the lefthander got just a bit too much of the plate and rifled two shots over the right field wall. Cliff Lee did the rest, in stifling New York on one run and six hits for complete game gem, which included 10 strikeouts and zero walks. Lee was seemingly in his own world on the mound with a pair of unusual fielding plays that he was almost flippant about.

New York hitters had nary a clue what to do with Lee and they hope to have much better success against Pedro Martinez or their suddenly dwindling chances of winning the Fall Classic will take another severe hit. What’s the big deal about losing the first game? The winner of Game 1 of the World Series has won seven straight World Series, 11 of the last 12 and 12 of 14 with the introduction of the wild card teams.

A.J. Burnett will be asked to do his best Lee-imitation. In his first season in the Pinstripes, Burnett is 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA and has not picked up a decision in the postseason with two decent starts and one pretty good beating. The concern for manager Joe Girardi is Burnett’s command. After posting an almost 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio during the regular season, the former Florida Marlin has 13 K’s and 10 W’s in three playoff appearances. Bookmaker.com has New York has -200 favorite with total of Un9 and the Yankees have won 11 of 13 in this spot with Burnett on the hill at home.

Doubts were expressed about Philadelphia feeling any pressure, being the defending champions. The numbers said the Phillies were underdogs coming into the series, which just added another log on the fire. No home field advantage for the second straight year, having the best road record in baseball at 52-34 takes care of that.

Pedro Martinez will attempt to squeeze what is left out of his right arm. Martinez is 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA since joining the Phillies and pitched seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in 2-1 loss that the bullpen gave away.

Philadelphia has owned October and will attempt to do same in November as they are 19-5 in the postseason the last two years and 27-11 after allowing four runs or less four straight games.

Coming into the series, two elements were deemed very important in determining the outcome. Who could jack the most balls over the wall from these power-laden clubs would affect the outcome and Chase Utley answered that one. Also, getting the starting pitchers out of the game and see how the relief pitchers would perform. What chance New York had late in the game was swept out to the Hudson River, with the Yanks pen rocked for four runs in the last two innings.
FOX has Game 2 beginning at 7:55 Eastern and the last five meetings between these teams in New York have produced five Unders.

World Series Preview

Most any year, the New York Yankees being in the Fall Classic automatically makes it special. Whether you love them or hate, the team in the pinstripes is an attention-getter as 26-time World Series champions. Because of their success, New York fans believe they should be in the World Series every year, however as long-time Yankees Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada would explain, wearing the uniform doesn’t guarantee you make it this far, let alone win as they have failed to do in last two trips.

New York is favored to win another title, which doesn’t mean anything to the defending World Series champion Phillies, who are attempting to be first repeat champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. Some teams are intimidated by the Yankees uniforms; don’t expect it to be Philadelphia, who has proven to be a deserving champion.

Pitching counts in the postseason and so does power. New York was the top home run hitting team in the big leagues with 244 and Philadelphia was the best in the National League at 224. Both teams play in homer-friendly parks, which were the top two in home runs allowed. The last time the two top hitting home run teams collided was 1926.

For those that prefer top quality pitching, it hardly gets better than Game 1 of the series. C.C. Sabathia is 12-1 since August (Yankees 14-1 in his starts) and has sick 1.19 ERA in three postseason starts. Sabathia will face someone who dressed in the same locker room as him just 16 months ago in Cliff Lee. The other former Cleveland Indian is 12-4 since July 16, and has an even lower ERA in his three postseason starts at 0.74. Both teams better start swinging from the start, as each pitcher has 20 strikeouts and three walks in the playoffs. This will be just the sixth time in World Series history, two former Cy Young winners faceoff.

For history buffs this from Jayson Stark of ESPN. Philadelphia is attempting to be just the third National League team in the last century to win back-to-back World Series, both previous teams to do so defeated the Yankees. It should also be reported five others tried and failed. These teams last met in the World Series 59 years ago. This is the third time since MLB went to division play that the defending champs faced the team with the best record in baseball, both times the champions went on to win again.

Nuts and Bolts- Philadelphia has been the best team in baseball on the road virtually all season with its 51-34 record. The Phils are 3-1 in the postseason in traveling uniforms. On June 22, the Phillies had a 10-22 record at Citizens Bank Park. Since that time, they are a torrid 39-15. Philadelphia is 31-16 against left-hand starters and 73-48 in games decided by two or more runs. New York quickly adapted to new surroundings in the Bronx and has 62-24 home record, winning by impressive 1.3 runs per game, the second best in MLB. The pitching hasn’t mattered; the Yankees are 70-43 against RH pitchers and 40-18 versus lefties. The Yanks are 99-48 as favorites and even better than Philly in games decided by two or more runs with 86-43 record.

3DW Take: For the second year in a row, Philadelphia is an underdog in the World Series. The Phillies beat New York two of three this season and are not going to fear the Yankees. New York has the better starting pitching which has carried them for the most part in the playoffs. Beyond Mariano Rivera, the bullpen has been unnerving and Joe Girardi has been widely criticized for over-managing.

Philadelphia will piece together starting pitchers and really needs Cole Hamels to return to last year’s postseason form immediately. The Phillies bullpen has caused a few anxious moments in the playoffs, yet has escaped unscathed. For the Phillies to win they need to win both of Lee’s starts and Hamels has to pitch effectively.

The Yankees scouts have done uncanny work in having New York players in just the right spots on the field. In the series win over the Angels, lost track after 10 line drives outs, with Yankees players always perfectly positioned. If the opposing team has made a base-running blunder, New York has been able to steal an out each time. There is no lineup that has 27 harder outs in baseball.

All the talk in baseball is always about pitching this time of year, but the opposite is also true, as batters go into slumps. In this series, look for the team that continues to hit, especially for extra-base power. The Yankees should win in six, but the value of a team being defending champions, an underdog role to create even greater focus and being able to win on the road is too much value to pass up. Philadelphia in a classic series.

Series odds from DiamondSportsbook.com: Philadelphia +165, New York -195

Wednesday October 28
Philadelphia (Lee) at New York (Sabathia) 7:57 EDT

Thursday October 29
Philadelphia (Martinez) at New York (Burnett) 7:57 EDT

Saturday October 31
New York (Pettitte) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 7:57 EDT

Sunday November 1
New York (TBD) at Philadelphia (TBD) 8:20 EDT

Monday November 2
New York at Philadelphia if necessary

Wednesday November 4
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Thursday November 5
Philadelphia at New York if necessary

Dodgers and Phillies NLCS Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers were dismissed in five games by the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies last October and believe they have advantages 12 months later in their favor. Though the Dodgers lack a true No.1 ace, manager Joe Torre is confident he can matchup with the Phillies better by mixing and matching to situations and still have added depth to turn to a pitcher that was a starter during the regular season if his chosen starter struggles early.

In last year’s NLCS, Los Angeles started five right-hand pitchers. Expect to see lefties Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf in the first four games as starting pitchers to hopefully combat Philly sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Torre is still contemplating who the other starters will be, but rest assured he will put Los Angeles in the best position to win the series based on his history.

On offense, a year’s experience should be invaluable to L.A. Last year they were loose in sweeping the Cubs, but everyone but Manny Ramirez puckered up once the next round came about. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are the two most likely keys for the Dodgers offense; however the bottom of the order can also play an important role and Torre likes the experience from players like Casey Blake to deliver.

This is the Dodgers eight NLCS and first back to back in 31 years. Ironically, exactly half of their appearances in this round of the postseason have been against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are looking to make a historical statement with visions of becoming the first NL team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia in fact is the first National League team to make consecutive appearances in the NLCS since Atlanta in 1995-96. It’s hard to fathom the Phillies will shutdown like St. Louis did against the Dodgers in the first round, since they led the league in home runs, scoring and most extra bases hits. The quartet of Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Howard and Utley were the first group of Phillies to hit 30 or more home runs in a season.

Look for Cole Hamels to be Game 1 starter. Though the lefty has not been nearly as effective as last season, he’s rested and loves pitching at Dodger Stadium. In three starts in L.A., Hamels has pitched 23 innings, allowing three runs on 15 hits, striking out 17 and walking just five batters. In his career he is 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA facing Los Angeles hitters.

Expect manager Charley Manuel to save Cliff Lee for Game 3 at home, which gives him ample rest and also makes him available for Game 7 on normal rest if needed. Manual will piece together the rest of rotation and expect Chan Ho Park to be added to the bullpen.

Based on the body of work, the Dodgers have distinct edge in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill have been lights out for opposing teams for six weeks. Though Brad Lidge picked up two saves in the NLDS, it was out of necessity, not desire. The skipper Manuel had used up all other options in both situations and played the percentages in utilizing Lidge and escaped both times. Has last season’s most dominant closer regained enough confidence to be called upon again, only Manuel knows with fingers crossed inside his pockets.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Dodgers 11th Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Ptc. Dodgers 7th Philadelphia 1st
Walks Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 7th
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 8th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd Philadelphia 9th
Walks Dodgers 8th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Ptc. Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Dodgers 1st Philadelphia 4th
Errors Dodgers 4th Philadelphia 2nd


Key Numbers- The Dodgers won the season series 4-3 and are 9-5 at home against the Phillies and 4-8 in the City of Brotherly Love the last three years. Los Angeles is among the best teams in baseball at home with 52-31 record and is 71-47 against RH starters. Torre’s club was only average in games decided by three or less runs with 59-51 record. Though playing in a weak division, the Dodgers are 20-6 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road record during the regular season at 48-33 and picked up two more wins in Colorado. Conventional wisdom has the Phillies being stymied against left-hand pitching; however a deep and versatile lineup is 29-16 against port-siders. The Phils have been much better in closer contests with 56-41 record with games decided by three or less runs.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Dodgers -120, Phillies Even

Sunday Action at 3DW

I hope everyone had a great day yesterday, as 3Daily Winners was 1-2 thanks to another extra inning loss (more on that later). The lone winner was a Best System play and we have one that is 85.2 percent today in the American League. The Top Trend is perfect 10-0 in afternoon action. Good Luck.

I won't bring this up again, but I can't believe my random bad luck in extra innings. After yesterday, now 6-9 on the season in extra frames, which is just about my winning percentage over the last several years. What will probably happen is I'll go 18-0 some year I'm having terrible season and make my record look better than it is.

What I learned yesterday – The Giants 9-0 win over Houston on Saturday followed their 13-0 win over the same club on Friday night. It's the first time since 1949 that San Fran have had back-to-back shutout wins, scoring at least nine runs in each game. On July 31, 1949, Leo Durocher's New York Giants won a doubleheader at Cincinnati by 10-0 and 9-0 scores, with Larry Jansen and Adrian Zabala throwing the shutouts.

Now on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are mediocre AL offensive team, scoring 4.2 or less runs a game, against a team with a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or less), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. This system has brought home the cash 52 of 61 times since 1997 and suggests going against Seattle.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians are 10-0 vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last two seasons, with average winning margin 3.6 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Matt from the LCC is backing the Chicago Cubs to win series over Milwaukee.

Royals up against Baseball System

The Kansas City Royals have taken last year’s end of the season and carried it over to a pretty good start in 2009 with 7-6 (+1.8 units) record. The offense hasn’t been overwhelming, ranked 21st, scoring 4.4 runs per game. However, the pitching has been quite good, allowing 3.5 RPG, which is second in the American League.

The Royals have a solid trio of starters in ace Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies, but beyond those three, the starting pitching drops off like a baseball thrown off a cliff. Last evening was a perfect example, as the much-traveled Sidney Ponson was battered for six runs and eight hits, surrendering four walks in three and third innings to Cleveland. To the Royals credit, they never gave up and scored six runs in the final two innings to fall just short in 8-7 defeat.

Yesterday, Kansas City recalled Brian Bannister from Triple-A Omaha. The 28-year old right-hander started 59 games for the Royals over the past two seasons but didn’t make the team in spring training. A spot was found for him when Doug Waechter was placed on the DL. Bannister will get the nod in Game 2 and has pitched well against the Indians with 3-1 record and 1.91 ERA in five career appearances.

Cleveland will start their ace Cliff Lee (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 2.000 WHIP), who looked more like himself in last outing, giving up one run over six innings against New York. Lee is the current Cy Young holder in the American League, after 22-3 season and has held a mastery over Kansas City. The left-hander is 12-4, with a 4.47 ERA versus the Royals in 19 starts. Though Lee’s earned run average is pedestrian against K.C., his presence and poor Royals pitching has him on the receiving end of 5.9 runs per start in his career.

Cleveland (5-9, -3.7) is attempting to overcome doleful 1-7 start and has won four of six thanks to potent offense. The Tribe is scoring 6.5 runs per game and has averaged eight per game in last seven outings. Bookmaker.com has Cleveland as -190 money line favorites and they are backed with a long running system that has delivered a boatload of winners.

Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing eight runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more.

Over the last dozen years, this system is 210-52, 79.4 percent against the ML. The results have tended to be remarkably consistent with 32-8 (80 percent) mark over the last three years. The oddsmakers money line suggests the underdog should win about a third of the time and for the most part, these games haven’t even been close, with average score differential 2.4 runs per game.

Tonight, consider Cleveland with their ace on the hill, with the deck stacked in your favor.