Final Four Saturday

It ended up being a very good Friday with 3-0 record, let’s see what we can pull off today. Slick Rick continues to pound the books and offers a Final Four selection. The Top Trend is perfect and the score differential is imposing. The Best System involves a couple of West Coast NBA teams, with the visitor in 80.4 percent winning situation. Good Luck

What I thought today- I’ve never been to a Final Four but probably like many of you know people that have. The one thing everyone says which I find so cool is all the fans (players and coaches also) gathered at the event believe their team is going to be crowned national champs before the games begin. I like that.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland, outscoring their opponents by three or more points a game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This easy to figure system is 38-9 ATS, 80.4 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The Chicago Bulls are 8-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 PPG.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Slick Rick has not had a losing day in 13 consecutive days and has Duke as his top play this Saturday.

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Mountaineers vs Blue Devils Final Four Matchup

You want intensity? I said do you want intensity! Well get up off the couch, sit straight up with both feet planted firmly on the floor, because Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski have narrowed eyes, with taunt faces, having prepared their teams as only they can for the second Final Four game of the day involving a 1 and 2 seed.

Missed shots, no problem

Of the four finalists in downtown Indianapolis, West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) is the poorest shooting team at 43.1 percent. For the Mountaineers, this just means opportunity for their athletic leapers to spring into action, collect the orange and put it back in the basket. West Virginia averages 15.5 offensive rebounds a game and is 8-1 ATS in road affairs when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds a contest since Huggins returned to alma mater.

Butler University isn’t the only butler in town, as the Mountaineers have Da'Sean Butler, who at least in West Virginia circles has opponents saying “the butler did it”. This is what a Big East coach said about Butler the player.

“[Da’Sean Butler] is so versatile. Our guy did a good job on him. We tried to limit his touches. In their five-man motion [offense], they’ll run 25 seconds off the clock if they don’t get a quick one. They keep moving. Butler has won so many games and hit so many big shots. We kind of overplayed him and let someone else do it. When he has the ball, he can score from ‘3.’ He can penetrate, and he hits the boards hard.”

Long athletes like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith pound the glass and have understood their roles in the offense better as the season has unfolded. It’s little wonder why the ‘Teers have tore off 10-game (7-3 ATS) winning streak.

Dukies have depth

Quietly, a few whispers had been heard that possibly Coach K no longer had the Midas touch in bringing in top-rate recruits to Durham, particularly tall ones. This has led to a few early exits in the Big Dance the past few seasons. This season has been a renaissance for Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS), with frontline players complimenting its best players and adding a physical aggressiveness not seen around the program lately.

Maybe it was the practices, or Mason and Miles Plumlee acting like the Hanson brothers from “Slap Shot”, but all of the sudden the Blue Devils were devilish on defense and demons on the offensive boards. Brian Zoubek finally became the player the Duke coaches had envisioned, being an ill-tempered rebounder and defender, with a real thirst for winning. Lance Thomas had played an undersized center in his career, but was allowed to move to four spot on the floor and his confidence and energy increased.

The Plumlee brothers gained confidence themselves and started moving out opposing players like bouncers at a Durham night spot. Kyle Singler got into the act and Duke was like the Pistons of 1989-90, the “Bad Boys” with polite smiles as opposed to snarls. This Duke team fooled everyone, even the oddsmakers, which is why they are 21-13 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season.

Combat gear required

Duke is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with total falling to 131. The Blue Devils do not shoot the rock a great deal better than West Virginia at 44 percent, but tracks down 14.6 offensive rebounds a contest and they are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive boards. Duke is 12-2 OVER in a neutral court setting where the total is 130 to 139.5.
The Mountaineers are the bettor’s best pal with 16-2 ATS record in a NCAA tournament conflicts and 11-4 UNDER after they have covered the spread this season.

Games involving 1 vs. 2 seeds have the higher seed 5-4 SU in the Final Four since field was taken to 64 teams. Two betting twists of note: two seeds off a double digit spread win are 1-7 ATS in this round, but a top seed that is unbeaten ATS to this point is 1-5 ATS in next outing.

Spartans vs Bulldogs Final Four Matchup

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren’t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and “beat down” of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo’s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he’s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the “Butler Way”

Cinderella doesn’t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

“They’re the best late-game defensive team I’ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They’re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.”

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA’s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo’s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He’s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don’t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, “If you beat us, it won’t be because you rattled us.”

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run “pick and rolls” or “pick and pops” in isolation sequences.

This is close

DiamondSportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their “onions” giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Final Four Wagering Outlook

The last time this many low seeds made it to their final destination was 2000, when Michigan State (1 seed) was paired with Florida (5), Wisconsin (8) and North Carolina (8). For students of the game, it was obvious there were no great teams this season. Many of the higher seeds had flaws and most were exposed by opponents who brought a little something extra on the day these teams fell. While people talk about parity, a more concise assessment about the 2009-10 campaign was competitive balance, meaning on any given day, any team could beat another in a one game setting.

This brings together an eclectic combination and no matter what, a five seed will play for the championship for the first time since the Gators did a decade ago.

Who can be crowned champion in this most uncommon of years, here is a look at each team’s brings to the table.

Butler (+350 to win national championship at DiamondSportsbook.com)

Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) advances to their first ever Final Four and as luck would have it, they don’t even have to travel to a far away destination. The Bulldogs have the highest winning percentage among the four teams at 88.8 percent, thanks to reeling off 24 (13-11 ATS) straight wins. This season the prize for doing so is playing in downtown Indianapolis, less than eight miles away from the Butler campus. The Bulldogs will be the first team to play in home city since UCLA in Los Angeles in 1971.

In the beginning of the season, Butler was top 10 material, but losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB (the first three in NCAA tournament) had people saying they weren’t quick or strong enough to compete at the higher levels. Looking at the kenpom.com for -Opponents average adjusted defensive efficiency- finds the Bulldogs have been in the Top 10 most of 2010 and explains why they have allowed more than 60 points once in last 12 games.

Butler has a star in Gordon Hayward and very good collegiate players like Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack along with Horizon League co-defensive player of the year Ronald Nored. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 NCAA tourney tilts.

Bulter can win the title at “home” if they continue to play the “Butler” way, which is hard-nosed defense, intelligent on offense and strict use of fundamentals which makes up for athletic shortcomings. Though not a good spread team, they are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times they’ve scored 70 or more points.

Michigan State (+450)

In the words of CBS announcer Verne Lundquist, “Well how do you do?” Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) keeps being counted out and for the sixth time since 1999 and in back to back years, the Spartans will their way to the Final Four. Tom Izzo’s squad will welcome the week off before playing on Saturday, as their road to Indianapolis has been the most nerve-wracking, winning four games by a total of 13 points, including the “blowout” of Northern Iowa by seven.

Many times we hear about coaches winning games in March and now April in college basketball, however a coach has never made or missed a shot from the sidelines. What makes Tom Izzo so special this time of year is attention to detail. He prepares his players to succeed all the time. A striking contrast between Michigan State and Kentucky in their Elite Eight games was the Spartans were more thoughtful and executed their passes better than the Wildcats, who were too casual. Izzo’s teams are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick.

Michigan State is 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and its players have taken it upon themselves to make-up for the loss of top scorer Kalin Lucas. Looking at tape of the determination level of Durrell Summers and Raymar Morgan is striking from a month ago; were it was not unusual for them to disappear on the floor for periods of time; no more for these Spartans in their hunt for a second straight championship game appearance.

The Spartans finish the job they started last season, by out-executing opponents and making shots.

West Virginia (+225)

It’s been 51 years since West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) has been to a Final Four, led by Jerry West, who would become NBA Hall of Famer and have his likeness be part of NBA logo. The Mountaineers were a team many believed capable of playing in Indianapolis in early April, way back in November.

This is a team that just keeps on working, being average in shooting at 43.1 percent, tenacious on the offensive glass and literally finding ways to win. This tournament more than in the past several years, shows the ability to win four games to reach this juncture is razor thin. A missed shot and a made basket at the other end within 10-20 seconds has ended up the difference or critical point for all these winners.

West Virginia is very much like their coach Bob Huggins, scrappy, tenacious and unrelenting. The Mountaineers look to impose their will on you with smothering defense, getting in your face with switching man-to-man. Huggins also has shown his flexibility in using 1-3-1 zone, something the older players were used to when John Beilein was still in Morgantown. Because of the height and wingspan of many of Huggins’ players, this zone has shutdown opposing teams, nearly every time is use. WVU is 16-2 ATS in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.

Da'Sean Butler is the go to guy on offense and Devin Ebanks has learned his role on this club as the season wore on, being more effective offensively as well as defensively. Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith are excellent role players, each with job to do and Joe Mazzulla has stepped up game having to fill in for Darryl "Truck" Bryant.

The ‘Teers have won 10 in a row (7-3 ATS) and keep finding ways to win, which might be enough to be champs of college basketball if they can shorten scoring droughts.

Duke (+120)

On Selection Sunday, a few wondered if Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS) would be a No. 1 seed, as it turns out the selection committee was accurate in their assessment of the Blue Devils. This is as different a team as coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken to what will be his 11th Final Four. Most of the Durham teams of the past were loaded with high school All-Americans, many with pro potential. This team is more like a team of one of his former players and now assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski, just with more overall ability. “Wojo” was a tough-minded player who made the most of his talent and never quit. This Duke squad is much the same way, in attack mode continually.

This Blue Devils team can still fill the basket from all areas of the offensive zone, but now has the height with Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers, to aggressively rebound at both ends of the floor. The Dukies are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds. Duke also plays very good positional defense, holding teams to 40.2 percent shooting and now the guards and wing players can funnel opposing teams towards the lane where tall timber awaits.

Duke wins it all if they continue to play great defense, especially on the perimeter, rebound and have at least two of their three outside shooters, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler or Nolan Smith hitting at normal or above figures from the outside. A rested Duke squad is a very good squad this season at 17-1 and 11-5-1 ATS with three or more days off.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Tally

Just when it seemed impossible for this year’s tournament to get any better we were given the instant classic between Kansas State and Xavier in double overtime, along with Tennessee in two titanic struggles, both coming down to the last shot in the last two rounds. As we move ahead, here is a wagering overview of the tournament to date.

Once the Sweet 16 arrives, Cinderella’s usually finds the clock striking midnight and indeed it did for St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, Cornell and Washington, losing by an average of 15 points per game. High seeds were not completely immune from being struck down as Syracuse and Ohio State were both laid to rest. Still, favorites and higher seeds were 6-2 and 5-2-1 ATS.

In this round, if a team was favored by 7.5 or more points or four or less, they were 3-0 against the number. Totals were also decidedly one way in the Thursday-Friday matchups with the UNDER an overwhelming 7-1.

The Elite Eight brought far different results. Here the favorites were 1-3 SU and ATS. In Kentucky’s case, No.1 seeds are now .500 SU against No. 2 seeds in the last 36 meetings in this round, thus underdog players made out well. Nonetheless, coach John Calipari has to be shaking his head thinking his team did not allow a two-point basket in the first 20 minutes against West Virginia and still trailed.

The higher seeds were 2-2 SU and ATS over the weekend, with the total doing a reversal at 3-1 OVER.

With just three games left to be played in this year’s heart-throbbing NCAA tourney, here are the all the betting numbers.

Favorites - 38-23 SU, 29-31-1 ATS
Higher seeds - 41-19, 30-29-1 ATS
Favorites of 7.5 or more -16-1, 9-8 ATS
Favorites of 4 or less -10-17, 9-18 ATS
Totals – 35-26 UNDER
Totals over 140 – 16-12 UNDER
Totals under 130 – 9-6 UNDER

Looking ahead, all four coaches are perfectly suited for this tournament, with 20 of the games decided by five points or less. That means it comes done to execution and the will to win and performing under pressure. Coaches Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski are known for their hard-driving styles that demands excellence and don’t sell Brad Stevens short, as he is known for designing the “Butler way” of playing basketball.

Here is wagering tip. If either Final Four encounters goes into overtime, bet against the winner in the title game. In the last three tournaments, the overtime winner is head-shaking 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in next outing (Western Kentucky and San Diego are discounted from 2008, since they played each other after overtime games), including 0-5 SU and ATS this season.

Final Four Saturday

I personally was 1-1 as those who receive my free picks who testify to it, but I missed on the Bobcats to cause a 1-2 day. Today we have the consensus results from the LCC on today’s Final Four and a perfect hockey trend that goes this afternoon. While many see Orlando in a letdown, today’s Best System views it the other way and is 83.3 percent accurate. Good Luck.

Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON road teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are a quality offensive team averaging 102 or more points against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. The Orlando Magic is such a team that supports a system that is 25-5 ATS, 83.3 percent.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The New York Rangers are 0-8 against the money line in road games against explosive offensive teams scoring three or more goals a game in the second half of the season.

Free Basketball Selections -3) For today’s Final Four, the Left Coast Connection has 64 percent on North Carolina and 70 percent on Connecticut.

A Distinct Big East Flavor in East Final

The Big East Conference tested the strong and the weak all season. Every team was required to play 18 games skin-on-skin confrontations, along with the conference tournament. The NCAA tournament committee has gone out of its way to have teams from the same conference not compete unless they should meet in the Final Four, but with the superior quality of the Big East this year, it became impossible to avoid such a situation should the teams arrive.

If No.1 Pittsburgh (31-4, 17-12 ATS) would emerge as national champions, nobody could say it was easy for the Panthers. They have been pushed to the final minutes in all three games and come in a less than intimidating top seed. Pitt doesn’t seem to have the emotional-fire ready, having not covered last four contests and just three of last nine. Any Pittsburgh backer will tell the tournament credo of “survive and advance” is being taken to ridiculous measures, for a team that is 30-15 ATS against teams that have 80 percent or higher win percentage.

At least the Panthers have the revenge card to play, having suffered one of their four losses at the hands of Villanova. In losing 67-57 in Philadelphia, coach Jamie Dixon’s squad was 3-16 from deep, on the way to shooting 40.7 percent and committing 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS revenging a loss.

This is Villanova’s second trip to Elite Eight in four years and they appear more equipped to make first Final Four appearance since 1985, when they played the “perfect” game in upsetting Georgetown for the national title. These Wildcats (29-7, 18-14 ATS) and have tremendous balance. What makes Villanova so difficult to defend is they have seven players each capable of scoring 10 or more points. Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds have to have their points, especially in big games, for the ‘Cats to be 10-2 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

Coach Jay Wright has his players focused on defense and rebounding and opposing teams are paying the price. Duke and UCLA did not have room to execute their halfcourt offenses and were crushed on the boards. In Villanova’s last four contests, they have outrebounded teams 170-119 and are 15-4 ATS after two straight games with an advantage of 10 or more on the glass.
Pittsburgh is a two-point favorite at Betjamaica.com, with total of 142. The first Elite Eight contest is also a 1vs3 matchup and it is worth following, as top seeds have won three in a row, by at least eight points. The total comes into affect on two levels, first, when these seeds have met in this round, the OVER is 7-2 and when the total is less than 145 points; the OVER is spectacular 20-6 ATS.

For Pittsburgh to make first Final Four since 1941, DeJuan Blair and company must stay out of foul trouble and the guards will have to handle the on the ball pressure better.

Villanova has to cause Panthers miscues and take the game right to Pittsburgh from the start. Though the Pitt players have not panicked when falling behind early in all their NCAA games, these ‘Cats are playing very well and far more talented than what they have seen.

No matter what, the Big East will have a representative out of the East region.

College Hoops Futures Bets

In last week’s college basketball article, I looked at the past five years of Final Four teams and their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as well as the differential between the two. Using the minimum numbers for each category that occurred over the past five seasons, I made a list of teams who achieved as high or higher number in all three areas. My list of teams numbered sixteen last week.

After using current data, five teams fell out of my qualifying Final Four list and one new one emerged to reduce this week’s slate to 12 teams. Three teams fell out because their defensive efficiency number worsened above the minimum, Missouri, Utah, and Georgetown. Illinois and Kentucky’s offensive efficiency numbers were reduced below our required minimum. Any of these teams can show up on the list again. This week’s list is as follows ranked by the best margin between offensive and defensive efficiency:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Pittsburgh
4. Connecticut
5. Gonzaga
6. West Virginia
7. Arizona State
8. Wake Forest
9. Washington
10. Butler
11. Xavier
12. Villanova

I like to look for inside-outside scoring capabilities on a team. A team cannot rely too much on any one player for their points. Balance is key. Having at least two good shooters from three-point range is a strong benefit when playing against a zone. Sure, players like Davidson’s Stephen Curry are special and many times can carry a team on their shoulders. However, it is very difficult for one player to be able to do that for the five NCAA Tournament wins it takes to become national champion.

The past five years has seen two number-one seeds playing in the championship game three times with the other two years having #2 versus #3 seeds to win it all. Out of the 20 Final Four teams, every squad has been no lower than a #3 seed except for two #4’s, one #5, and a rogue #11, George Mason in 2005-06.

In looking at wagering on a futures bet to win it all, I didn’t want to get worse than 10 to 1 odds so that eliminated a number of my teams. Let’s examine some of the ones I considered.Villanova’s 6-8 forward Sr. Dante Cunningham is having a breakout season leading the Wildcats in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. However, after improving last season, Jr. Scottie Reynolds has digressed in shooting this year behind the arc while falling to a field goal percentage of 39.0%. Nova is only 2-4 this season against teams in the top 50 RPI. The Wildcats should fall from my list of top Final Four candidates soon.

West Virginia plays tremendous defense but has had difficulties closing games out. While 6-7 Jr. Da’Sean Butler is an all-Big East caliber player, the Mountaineers have two freshmen in their top 5 minute earners with one of those being their point guard, Truck Bryant. They also have the lowest offensive effective field goal percentage of our 12 teams and along with Washington, are the only team to be below 50% in that category.

Xavier played an exceptional non-conference schedule this year helping prepare them for the Atlantic 10 conference race. They have beaten the likes of Missouri, Memphis, and LSU. Their two losses this season were against fellow elite teams on our list, Duke and Butler. Playing their worst game of the year, the Musketeers were down by 31 points at halftime to Duke before losing by 18. The next game was against Butler where Xavier turned the ball over 17 times and put the Bulldogs at the free-throw line for 33 attempts where Butler shot 78.8%. The bright side was they held Butler to just 35.1% shooting.The Musketeers are a well balanced team with three players scoring in double-digits. Any one of five players can go off for 20. A good inside-outside combo in F Derrick Brown and G C.J. Anderson, a gritty competitor. The team shoots the ball well aided by a lot of back screens, play very good defense, and have the best rate in the country at getting to the charity stripe. Their downside is they have the worst turnover rate of our 12 squads, losing the rock on 22.1% of their possessions, 247th in the country. Xavier doesn’t get the national publicity they deserve. They normally play a top 50 non-conference schedule and have had very good post-season success. The Musketeers have gone to three straight NCAA tournaments and seven in the last eight years. They made the Elite Eight last season before losing to UCLA in the West regional final and are one of only nine programs to make multiple appearances in the final eight in the last five years. Xavier is a projected #4 seed by collegerpi.com. At 75 to 1 current odds, that is a long-shot wager I am going to take. I am not saying the Musketeers are going to win it all, but this is a wager that has value to me.

While Butler has beaten Xavier and UAB with their only loss coming at Ohio State by 3 points, I cannot take a flyer on the Bulldogs to capture the college crown as they are ranked 340th out of 344 Division 1 schools in experience. Butler has two freshmen and two sophomores starting.

The University of Washington is playing the best defense they have for the past six seasons, including when they made the Sweet 16 in 2006 led by Brandon Roy where they lost in overtime to UConn. The Huskies don’t make many three’s ranking in the bottom ten nationally in percentage of points from behind the arc. Washington didn’t play a very tough non-con slate losing to Kansas and Florida in a November tournament in Kansas City. The only other Top 50 school they played was a win at home over Oklahoma State. U-Dub is the second worst shooting team and they have the worst defensive effective field goal percentage out of our elite dozen. This past weekend on the road they beat another of our group, Arizona State, after they had dropped a game to Arizona two nights earlier. The Huskies are led by Frosh sparkplug PG Isaiah Thomas and the physical 6-7 Sr Jon Brockman. Even though the Pac-10 is down this year and I don’t like the UW coach very much plus I have my doubts on the Huskies’ true defensive capabilities, at odds of 100 to 1 to becoming the champions, I am going to skip taking the wife out to dinner one night this week and go drop a Benjamin on a Washington futures bet.

After all, who thought the Arizona Cardinals would be within three minutes of winning the Super Bowl?I listed the odds for the teams on my list of winning the championship courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Wake Forest was 14 to 1. At that price I put money on Wake to end up #1. Wake plays at a frenetic pace, seventh fastest in D-1. The Deamon Deacons play superb defense, #5 in defensive efficiency. Even though they have exceptional size, they cover the perimeter like a blanket ranking third in D-1 in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They have beaten two teams on my current list, North Carolina and Duke, and two others that are close to being on the list, BYU and Clemson. They are also exceptional in a stat I like to look at, defensive assist-to-field goal ratio. Wake gets to march to the line frequently ranking 20th in their percentage free throw attempts to field goal attempts, 45.4. Collegerpi.com has Wake as one of their current #1 seeds.

I mentioned that Villanova is a team that will probably slide off my list of potential FF teams, and obviously there are some who could possibly move on to the list. Purdue is projected as a #4 seed and just needs to get and stay as healthy as possible while adding one more point to their OE. Rick Pitino’s Louisville is doing their normal second half of the season surge and only need to improve their OE two points to qualify for our list. While Oklahoma is listed as one of the four #1 seeds by collegerpi.com, they have to improve their defensive efficiency by more than 2 points to make my potential Final Four list.

Sure, this is just the first week of February. It is never too early to look at futures bets. It is similar to playing the lottery, but the people who had Celtics futures tickets last year aren’t complaining.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority drops by to share his wisdom.