Saturday's Line up

I wish I could keep up with this daily with how we are going but doing a lot of football writing recently which cuts into time. Anyway we are on 59-26 run and have an outstanding 85.4 percent system ready to ignite. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and not surprising involves the Pirates. The guys from the Left Coast Connection have been awesome when they think like-minded and have another Free consensus play. Good Luck

What I’ll thought today – I love conspiracy theorists, if Orlando would have won last night they would say the NBA is fixed and they wanted a seventh game, but since that didn’t happen they move on to “well David Stern wanted Boston in the finals”. Amazing!!!!

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Astros, being outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season, after allowing 15 runs or more. Since 2006 this system is 41-7, 85.4 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Brian Burres of Pittsburgh is 0-11 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 in his career. (Team record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus plays have been amazing and they are 10-0 on the Red Sox tonight.

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Boston needs a little magic(?)

No way, come on, it’s impossible, not a chance in you know where, but yet…

The Boston Celtics have gone into some weird time warp machine, going from looking old and downtrodden, to younger and hotter than Justin Bieber and back again.

The Celtics by the end of Game 5’s 113-92 beat down looked like they had just rode on nearby Space Mountain at Disney World backwards, without seat belts.

For those that love the city of Boston and their sports teams, this series is taking on a theme a little too familiar, with the Bruins coughing up a 3-0 series lead to Philadelphia earlier this month.

The Celtics are 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge and might need Lance Burton to put an end to Orlando’s magic. The single greatest denominator in this series is confidence. Boston stole it in Game 1 and Orlando has taken it back with two victories.

How else can you explain Boston being flawless on both ends of the floor, finding the open shooter to make baskets and closing out on Orlando shooters at just the right instant to make them miss.

Yet, in the space of less than two playoff games, Doc River’s team can’t find an open makeable shot and looks hesitant and half step slow on offense and is running towards Magic shooters, instead of having them guarded.

And what about Stan Van Gundy’s squad? For three games Orlando couldn’t hit the water with a shot at Disney's Blizzard Beach Water Park and Jameer Nelson vs. Rajon Rondo looked like the biggest mismatch since Floyd Mayweather Jr. hammered Arturo Gatti.

However, a great coaching adjustment by Van Gundy has Nelson finding freedom off screens and the Boston big men are uncertain of Jameer’s next move and he’s put them in a full Nelson, whether he’s decided to drive, shoot or dish. The Magic might have unleashed another weapon as Rashard Lewis stopped thinking and has started just playing basketball.

Orlando is 11-3 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season and their increased intensity and execution has Rivers team reeling.

Glen Davis is a maybe after suffering concussion, leaving a frustrated Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace to do battle with Dwight Howard in the paint, who is invoking performances from yesteryear. (From Elias Sports - Dwight Howard registered 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots to help Orlando avoid playoff elimination in Game Five on Wednesday night. Howard had 32 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots to help Orlando avoid a series sweep in Game Four. Only one other player has recorded 20-or-more points, 10-or-more rebounds and at least four blocked shots in consecutive games with his team facing elimination in both games: Elvin Hayes in 1979.)

Boston is a 3.5-point favorite according to most sportsbooks, with total of 187.5. Can a battered and bruised white-clad club muster Celtic pride and close out this series? Yes they can, but they have to make adjustments.

Orlando has raised the ante on physical play and the Celtics have been retaliating with foolish fouls instead of matching grit for grit. Bang with the Magic just enough to not be whistled for fouls and don’t get out-muscled and out-worked on the glass, otherwise they fall to 13-30 ATS at home after being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more. Passive won’t work and neither will overly aggressive, take the fight to them.

On the high screens Nelson is running off of, attack him with big man, with arms spread to reduce Jameer’s line of sight. Nelson has never been accused of being a Steve Nash-type passer. Force him make immediate decisions with ball, not his strength under duress.

Boston players also have to stay with their own man. In the first three contests the Magic converted 20 three-pointers, in the last two wins; Orlando long distance shooters have ripped the nets for 23 from “downtown”.

Superman and friends are 24-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two years and they know as well as Boston, for all intents and purposes this is an elimination game for both teams. Though 93 teams have tried and failed in the NBA playoffs being down 3-0, if Boston were to lose, most would bet against history.

ESPN has Game 6 at 8:30 Eastern and one can only imagine what people from Bean-Town are thinking.

Thursday's Top Material

We’re back after a 1-1 Tuesday and have three plays on tap to supports 56-26 record. The Best System and Best Bet are from the same game and have extremely impressive figures. Talk about impressive one AL team has an 18-0 angle going tonight. Good Luck

What I’ll learned today – Dwight Howard registered 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots to help Orlando avoid playoff elimination in Game Five on Wednesday night. Howard had 32 points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots to help Orlando avoid a series sweep in Game Four. Only one other player has recorded 20-or-more points, 10-or-more rebounds and at least four blocked shots in consecutive games with his team facing elimination in both games: Elvin Hayes in 1979. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Cincy, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, in May. Over the past three seasons this system is electrifying 27-6.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Tampa Bay is 18-0 in home tilts after scoring four runs or less three straight games over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The LCC consensus plays continue to deliver wins and profits and are backing the Reds 14-0 this evening. WOW!

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Can Orlando make series compelling?

While waiting for the lines to come out on Game 5 between Boston and Orlando, did some perusing to see what the common man was thinking about this series after the Magic upset the Celtics 96-92 in overtime. Some were hilarious, other thoughts were insights into what Joe Average has running around in his dome, even if he still is allowed to drive and place online sports betting wagers.

The most common theme was this is all fixed by David Stern and Orlando was going to come back and tie the series at 3-3, with opinions varying who wins the deciding seventh game. This subject of fixed games will show up later this week in another article.

Many praised Orlando for not emailing it in and wondered aloud if this is the sign of the Magic finally playing up to capabilities or if it was a one night stand and reality comes a callin’ back at home. Most thought it was a gift to take Orlando at +7 seeing that was a two touchdown turnaround (14-point swing) in less than week, regardless of the location.

Equal numbers lambasted Boston for not bringing the necessary determination to close out opponent who had been all but willing to be beaten for large expanses of the series and questioned the Celtics commitment to excellence. What was read into this was they had the C’s minus the seven.

For those that see Stern as the reason the series was extended at least one more contest, it turns out the real culprit was Stan Van Gundy, the Magic coach.

Van Gundy may look like Ron Jeremy’s brother more than his own sibling Jeff; however he made two wise moves before Game 4 even started.

He had witnessed three games and broken down tape and determined Rajon Rondo was too disruptive as defender, especially against Jameer Nelson. Instead of setting single screens which Rondo routinely beat, he set up staggered screens.

This created more room for Nelson to operate, who is a shooter first and passer second as a point guard. Rondo couldn’t use his quickness to jump thru or around two Orlando players and Boston seemed puzzled as to what to do with Nelson in more open areas.

This placed different Celtics big men in no-man’s land and Dwight Howard for the first time had room to work with and the Magic’s offense had continuity, sending them home 16-5 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.

While it’s impossible to gauge the impact, Orlando played more ready from the start. Van Gundy had told his squad no team had EVER come back from 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs (93-0), because they had not placed enough value on winning the fourth game in the series. Most of the Orlando players showed more passion and they own a diabolical angle moving ahead - 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season, with average margin of victory 16 points.

Boston deserves plenty of blame for this series extension. The first aspect is the Celtics play after the third quarter in this East Finals. Most of the time Doc Rivers squad has enjoyed big leads going into the final 12 minutes and NBA contests have a natural ebb and flow, nonetheless after awhile you wonder about a team being outscored 105-78 in the last quarter and beyond. (Outscored all four games)

What has gotten the Celtics to this juncture is team basketball, yet in the last segments of game, a much larger volume of isolation plays are called or run, which is why Boston had such an awful spread record during the regular season by blowing leads for losses or non-covers. Despite the defense, it makes more sense why they are 5-17 ATS after two or more consecutive Under’s this year.

Oddsmakers have Orlando as four-point favorites, but they are only 2-6 ATS when doling out 4.5 or less points at home. Boston right now is not in scurrying mode from one loss –“There's definitely no need to panic. We like the position we're in," Ray Allen said. The Celtics are 15-5-1 ATS as postseason underdogs.

The Magic face a second match point trying to force a sixth conflict and build further momentum. ESPN will be on hand at 8:30 Eastern, with KG and company 11-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite.

Boston on the brink

Talk about anti-climatic; this is exactly the situation the online sports betting world is facing in tonight’s Orlando and Boston Game 4 matchup. Only four times in the history of major sports has a team comeback from a 3-0 deficit (the city of Boston teams has been involved in half of them, one good one bad) and it has never happened on the hardwood.

The Celtics are headed to the NBA Finals whether it be tonight or later this week, but how did the veteran team come so far so fast after playing .500 basketball for 3 ½ months and being a near calamity for backers against the spread?

In hindsight, Boston had variables that were not present to the naked eye, but were just below the surface.

The Celtics have several players that had been thru every imaginable NBA condition. Two years ago they were able to finally taste a championship and thou they failed a year ago, Boston had far less expectations placed on them this season.

While many ranted (including the person that wrote this article) this was just an old team that needed to start refocusing with a different cast, their coach Doc Rivers saw something else.

“This being an older group, it’s probably easier for me to get their focus in the playoffs,” Rivers said. “The goal is right in front of them.”

Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen might not be able to bring an outstanding performance night after night like in the past, but as their confidence grew in the postseason, each has had spurts of greatness and played true team basketball, with Boston 11-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

Boston has been constructed in way that promotes team play and that has the ability to stifle opponents that are not mentally strong.

Beyond Dwayne Wade, Miami lacked the physical and mental toughness to compete with Boston and fell 4-1. Cleveland was believed to be on their way to being crowned the kings of the NBA, instead they still lacked the scoring power beyond LeBron James, with outside shooters that could drain shots all day against inferior competition, but not under pressure by a defensive team that gave no quarter.

Orlando, the defending Eastern champions, had marched thru the first two rounds of the playoffs like Heidi Montag adding car miles to plastic surgeon.

The Magic thwarted the Celtics a year ago in the East semis, but Garnett wasn’t there. The 2010 version of Rajon Rondo is superior to the one Orlando faced a year ago and Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen and Glen Davis are all better players one season later, as witnessed by their complete thrashing of the blue-clad squad 94-71. Boston is 20-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since the “Big 3” and others were assembled.

This reporter admits to picking Orlando to win the series, but one nagging question was still out there. With Hedo Turkoglu and to a lesser degree Courtney Lee no longer part of Magic contingent, who was going to make big shots at crunch time?

Vince Carter has long been known for being less than clutch in the final five minutes of a contest. Dwight Howard needs to be setup to score and let’s be totally frank, Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and others would never be accused of blood doping, since it would have to go thru their hearts, which they have not shown in this series to date. Orlando might be 17-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more, however they look much closer to the team that is 0-4 as visiting underdogs.

Sportsbooks have Boston as seven-point favorite with total of 187.

When Celtics players were asked about their hockey counterparts blowing 3-0 playoff lead this spring and if outside influences could make them less mentally strong, Paul Pierce said this.
“This team is not complacent,” Pierce said. “We’re too close to our goals. You’ve got a team that’s won the championship so we understand what it takes. We understand the mental toughness that you’ve got to have at this point in the season. So I don’t see any slippage from us and, hopefully, we can close this thing out on Monday.”

The total is at a series low and Boston is 12-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game (second time in the series), while Orlando is 11-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.

Game 4 is set for 8:30 Eastern on ESPN.

Respect your elders

Common on, be honest, you had the Boston Celtics playing in the NBA Finals right along with the thought of changing the oil in your car. The truth is you didn’t really believe either was going to happen, but it sounds good right now, having learned what veteran pride and know how can do.

While much of corporate America looks to slice payroll, force more early retirements and generally speaking hire a cheaper labor force without necessarily having a better replacements, the Boston basketball franchise embraces the elderly.

No question it is a fine line to walk, as for months Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were having a difficult time keeping up with their hefty reputations, let alone playing a higher caliber of basketball. Boston limped into the playoffs with 3-7 SU and ATS record to close the season and most basketball fans and sports bettors thought the only way the light goes on for the Celtics was the “Clapper”.

For all that had gone wrong with Boston (27-26, 20-31-2 ATS since Dec. 27 until the end of the regular season), once the playoffs began, youth was served.

Rajon Rondo strapped the (aging) veteran stars on his back went took off. Rondo destroyed Miami and as that series wore on, one by one the “Big Three” from the Celtics joined him as a cohesive unit. Much like a younger person showing an older adult how to use their cell phone and various apps, Rondo got Boston rolling and they are 10-3 SU and ATS in the postseason, including punching winners on the last five contests.

After the C’s unceremoniously chopped up Cleveland, Orlando was supposed to finish of this Celtics revival. The Magic were younger, quicker and reportedly hungrier, playing the best basketball of any team for 2 ½ months.

Then something weird happened, something that would make legendary Red Auerbach smile. Boston went to Central Florida and ripped Orlando apart. Word was the Rondo and Jameer Nelson matchup was supposed to be special; instead it’s been the like Buffalo Bills in a Super Bowl.

The way the other Magic guards and forwards (except for J.J. Redick and Vince Carter in non-pressure situations) have wilted against Boston, you would have thought the games were being played outdoors on Church Street.

For roughly 35 minutes of each of the first two games, the way Orlando was scrambling on defense, you would swear it was 6 on 5, with Boston always finding the open man. The Magic might be 26-14 ATS having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season, but they look like a befuddled bunch.

Online sports betting outlets have Boston as 3.5-point favorite, with total of 190 and they are 25-14 ATS after a win by six points or less. The Celtics have controlled the tempo series after series and is 13-3 UNDER against teams with winning records. Orlando still has a heartbeat, but is 15-31 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses and 9-1 UNDER after a close loss by three points or less.

ESPN will have Game 3 at 8:30 Eastern, with the favorite 1-6 and 0-7 ATS since May 17 of last year.

Orlando better come ready

The Boston Celtics exposed the Orlando Magic like Toto pulling back the curtain on the Wizard of Oz. Whether Orlando was not emotionally ready to play from the long layoff or listless after cruising past two dramatically weaker opponents, the facts are for three quarters the Magic looked liked they belonged in the Eastern Finals as much as the New Jersey Nets.

The crisp passing normally associated with Stan Van Gundy’s team amounted to a grand total of 10 assists in the series opener. The Magic players dumped the ball down to Dwight Howard and basically stood like statues in creating no movement on the perimeter, which forced Howard to rely on his limited offense game with nowhere to pass the ball.

While the Celtics deserve credit for keeping the Magic under 40 percent shooting for the first 36 minutes, their task was made much simpler with Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes and Jameer Nelson for the most part taking off-balance shots and being sloppy ball-handlers.

“I don't think we were prepared for the level they were ready to play," said Vince Carter, one of the few players in white with pulse throughout the contest. "They were ready to go from the jump, and we weren't on their level from the beginning." Orlando is 41-22 ATS revenging a same season loss.

It’s not a good thing when the best and smartest player on the floor for your team is J.J. Redick. While the former Duke guard has made himself a useful NBA player off the bench, he can’t be one of two players (Carter the other) that understands what his team needs.

The Magic too readily let Boston set up its half court defense. When Nelson had the ball a good portion the game, he did too much yo-yo dribbling and the offense was stagnant.

With Redick, he would get the ball into Howard’s hands early in the shot clock and give the big man options, he would than move to give Dwight as reasonable outlet and would either dribble drive to the basket for a good shot or find another open shooter. The Magic are 23-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this year.

"That was a wake-up call we really needed, in my opinion," said Carter. "They're relentless, they're aggressive, they do a great job of contesting, especially in the paint, and it took us a while to figure it out, but when we did we played a lot better."

The question about Boston has been are they too old and are they wise because of their experience? The answer presently is the latter. Ray Allen shot only 34 percent against the Magic in last year’s playoffs and they tried to employ the same defensive strategy on him again, pressuring him on the perimeter to take contested shots. Allen foiled those tactics, by beating Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and later Redick off the dribble for layups or short jumps shots in totaling his game high 25 points.

The green-clad C’s are up to 38-23 ATS as road underdogs the past three years and Paul Pierce is starting to show he might still have something left in his legs with superior all-around game line that looked this way - 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

“It was a defensive game, and we like those. That was fine with us," said Boston coach Doc Rivers.

Orlando opens Game 2 as seven-point favorites to even the series, with total of 189. The Magic are 31-12 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite and 17-6 UNDER after one or more losses. Boston has won and covered four in a row and is 29-16 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive contests. The Celtics are 11-2 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last outing.

The second game in the series has an 8:30 Eastern start on ESPN.

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We stay smokin' heading into Monday

Quality winners spilling out of 3Daily Winners with three more W’s on Sunday taking record to 45-23 or pretty damn good. The Dodgers have a new address at wwwwwww.Winners and are in perfect Top Trend tonight. Boston and Yankees is always fun, one team is in a 55-7 winning system tonight. The LCC has another Free Play up for tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today – With no disrespect to the former Dukie, but when J.J. Redick is your best player on the floor in the NBA conference finals, your chances of losing go up significantly. Redick was far and away the best and most intelligent Orlando player in the fourth quarter in Game 1, which is really an indictment against the other Magic players.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Red Sox who are average hitting team (BA in .265 to .279 range), against solid AL starting pitcher with ERA under 4.20, with an on-base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. If a team was really potent offensively, they would never be such a pooch and playing against them wins 88.7 percent of the time. (55-7)

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Dodgers are 11-0 in home games off four straight wins against division rivals over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection back Oakland A's 8-0 over Seattle.

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NBA Eastern Finals Outlook

(2) Orlando vs (4) Boston

After the Orlando Magic dismissed atrocious Atlanta in four games, an article appeared on the internet, questioning if this team was as good as the one that went to The Finals a year ago. We’ll let the author of that piece further collect his thoughts while we examine the facts, at least as we know them.

Orlando has won all eight assignments in the NBA Playoffs without a loss. An argument could easily be made of those teams in the final four, the Magic have had the path of least resistance, encountering two obviously flawed clubs that any of the other three teams to join them in the middle of May would have also beaten.

In Orlando’s defense, they can only do what is asked of them and have they ever.

Dwight Howard and the Magic are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs. They have won these games by an average of 17.1 points a contest and covered the spread by incredible 8.8 PPG. (There only non-cover was by half a point)

Since Feb. 28, Stan Van Gundy’s team is 28-3; let that sink in a few seconds, 28-3 and equally remarkable 23-7-1 ATS. While LeBron James and Cleveland were resting up at the end of the regular season to be eliminated from the playoffs roughly a month earlier than they expected, Orlando was just getting started. They are 14-0 and 13-1 ATS since Apr. 4.

Just how good has the Magic been in last 31 games, consider they have outscored opposing teams by 436 points or 14.0 PPG. The other three teams left in the postseason did not have that large of a total points differential over 82 games! In other words Orlando is lampooning everyone these days. One other note everyone might have missed, the team with the largest point differential in the NBA was the Magic at +7.5 and since 2004, all but one of the teams that won the NBA title led their conference in this category.

Now that we’ve established just how good Jameer Nelson and his teammates are what about Boston. The Celtics just took down the “chosen” Cavaliers who were supposed to be NBA champions. After an incredibly substandard second half of the season in which Betty White and Abe Vigoda (both were in the now famous Snickers commercial) appeared downright spry compared to the Celtics, they’ve had a playoff renaissance much like Ms. White’s career.

Kevin Garnett has been bedrock solid, playing to his strengths of the mid-range jump shot and being a presence on defense. Ray Allen quietly had a strong second half of the season after hearing trade rumors, driving foes crazy running off screens and draining jump shots. Though his foot speed might not be as good as it was, Allen’s knack of squaring up players on defense and picking their pocket, places the Celtics in advantageous positions.

Paul Pierce is showing signs of life, shooting the ball better and back to taking two dumb fouls a game. Glen Davis and Tony Allen are making contributions off the bench and there was even a Rasheed Wallace sighting, adding a positive contribution here and there.

As good as all these players have played in the first two rounds of the playoffs, none of this occurs without Rajon Rondo. Much like college basketball has become reliant on point guard play, the same is also true among the elite teams in the NBA.

Rondo was the singularly dominant performer in Cleveland series, with his ability on offense and defense and he set the tone for Boston throughout.

After being a deplorable spread team all season, The C’s are 8-3 SU and ATS in the postseason and building confidence.

Part of that feeling is being supplied by coach Doc Rivers. The former Orlando coach is not going to dazzle anyone with his X and O work, which is why he brought in assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the strategic moves. Like a smart boss, Rivers understands his strengths and weaknesses and surrounds himself with people that compliment his skill set.
This sets up as fascinating series, especially at point guard with Rondo vs. Nelson. If either gains an edge, their team automatically has a greater chance of winning.

Watching Orlando pass the ball on offense is like a video game or pinball machine. The ball is continually in motion at various angles and if a Magic player is open, he’ll be found. This places a premium on Boston defenders to stay with their man and have arms extended to tip passes or have body parts in passing lanes. If not, the 3-point party starts for Orlando.

Pierce and Allen can certainly matchup with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes and if they can gain the upper hand they could frustrate them since they’ve played more scrimmage games than actual hard-nose basketball recently.

Orlando won three of four meetings this season (2-2 ATS). You can presume the home court not to mean much just like last year playoff series, when the road team won three times. The Magic might be the best team in basketball, nonetheless that doesn’t mean they won’t be tested by this proud bunch from Boston who believes they can win it all again.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-260) in seven over Boston (+210)

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Monday's Wave

Another quality day of 2-1 takes us 35-16, 68.6 percent in past 51 picks. Sal has a NL East play for Free today. A Cincy pitcher isn’t at his best into today’s trend situation and we have a 80 percent totals system ready to fire. Good Luck

What I thought today- (11:07 am PDT) Orlando and the L.A. Lakers go for the sweep today of their respective opponents, with NBA bettors liking the Magic’s chances the most. Orlando opened as -5.5 point road favorites, but the majority of books have moved them up to -6.5.

The interest in the Lakers and Utah is more along the lines of scoring, which has escalated each contest and produced three Over’s. The opening number of 205.5 was not good enough for totals players, who have bet it up to 207.

In baseball, numbers moving up and down on favorites.

The Washington Nationals might be tied in the standing with the New York Mets at 17-14, but MLB bettors are not sold at least tonight on the Nats. New York opened as -140 home favorites and has gone up at least 15 cents at most wagering outlets. With the Mets John Maine sporting 2.30 ERA in last three starts and 10-0 record at home vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season over the last three seasons (Mets Record), this could be a factor.

Boston is receiving the same treatment, getting ready to face division rival Toronto. This line movement is bit more perplexing as the Red Sox have gone from -171 to at least -185 and higher at sportsbooks. The Blue Jays are 12-4 on the road this season and have won nine of last 11. Boston does own 3-0 record over Toronto in 2010 and is 16-3 after seven or more consecutive Fenway Park contests however.

The Chicago Cubs just finished 1-5 road trip and subtract their lone victory and this dead ball club scored 10 total runs in the other five contests. The Cubs have gone from -165 favorites at Wrigley Field to -151 or less. Possibly 6-13 record against losing teams doesn’t instill much confidence.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 and a team like Tampa Bay is batting a frigid .225 or worse over their last 10 games, against opponent with a ice cold starting pitcher with ERA over 7.00 in his last three starts. This system is 40-10, including 4-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Reds Bronson Arroyo is is 4-17 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 in his pitching career. (Team’s record)

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal is 10-3 in MLB since Thursday and has the Mets, though he bought it much lower price.

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Bring the brooms for Monday

One professional basketball team swept away the competition in the second round; now two more will try and match them to start a new work week. Orlando and Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and do the same thing Phoenix performed yesterday and whisk away their opponent’s in four games to advance to conference finals.

The Magic are presumed to have the easier time since they have toyed with Atlanta like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals. Orlando has won the three games in the series by an average of 29 points, which by NBA standards is about the same difference as a balanced budget in Washington D.C. vs. the national debt.

Orlando’s worst shooting game in the series was their last at 50.7 percent (the other two were 52.4 and 55.9 percent), while Atlanta shot attempts looked like a few of Tiger Woods drives over the weekend, making a paltry 36.8 percent vs. the Magic, however at least Woods had a back neck as excuse.

The Magic have won lucky 13 in a row (12-1 ATS) and are 13-3 ATS in road games having covered 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last three seasons. Oddsmakers are taking a hit on the Hawks as the old “pendulum” theory is taking a beating with Atlanta, which is why Orlando is 6.5-point favorites after being just two in Game 3.

The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs and 4-18 ATS off a home massacre of 20 points or more and the most telling and damning remarks come from one of their own.

When asked how well his team plays together center Al Horhord offered this.

“The chemistry, it’s OK,” Horford said, hardly a glowing assessment. “At times, it can be really good. Other times, not so good. There are ups and down. We have a lot of good guys on the team. We mesh to a certain extent. I just think sometimes, when things don’t go our way, everybody seems to crawl into their own little hole.” How could a sports bettor take the points with that cryptic statement for this TNT tilt at 8:00 Eastern?

While many basketball experts don’t recognize much of a difference between the Lakers and Utah besides the height factor, Los Angeles has on other clear edge, which is why they are the defending NBA champions.

The Lakers are maddening bunch this year as reported underachievers, merely going thru the motions too often for people’s taste. They had the third best regular season record at 57-25 and were far from domineering at +4.7 points point differential (tied for sixth overall). Their 39-50-2 spread record is a scattergood for a team of their ability, yet the one thing they do right the vast portion of the time is they make one more shot, grab one more rebound or make one more defensive stop to win games than the opposition. This carried them to Game 3 victory and 3-0 series lead even if good fortune as much as anything kept Wesley Matthews tip-in try at the buzzer out of the basket.

For all the criticism Phil Jackson’s team receives they have won five in a row and covered the number four times and have growing confidence, which is not good news for future opponents.
“Down the stretch, we made big shots. We’ve got guys that aren’t scared to take them,” Kobe Bryant said. “All across the board, guys will step up and they make them. That’s why we never really fret when it’s a five-point game or a two-point game with a couple minutes to go. “
The Lakers have no problem playing the up-tempo game with Utah and are 9-1 ATS after three or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Utah is 2.5-point favorites, with total at a series high of 207 and the Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year. “If we get the ball in the basket last night in the end of the ballgame it’s a different day,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said Sunday. “But that’s part of it. You learn how to deal with the good and bad in life. There’s always going to be both at different times.”

The Jazz are 8-0 ATS at Energy Solutions Arena after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points and are 8-1 OVER in all playoff conflicts this campaign. The Lakers would prefer not to extend series and have nearly as much rest as the Suns before they meet and are 34-19 ATS as underdogs.

This contest will begin after Orlando and Atlanta complete their game and L.A. is 13-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

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Looking to stay hot this Saturday

Our record has been special of late with 30-15 mark after 3-0 Thursday. For openers we have a 37-8 run line system in the AL. The Top Trend is reverse perfect and Kendall goes right back for the kill in the NBA with FREE NBA winner. Good Luck

What I thought today- Went and saw the Brewers and D-Backs last night. Both teams have obvious shortcomings. The Brew Crew won 3-2 and a big reason in my opinion was to why the game was low scoring was all pitchers threw first pitch strikes 46 of 66 batters.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play On home underdogs (Oakland) with the +1.5 run line after four straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base, with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or higher over his last three starts. This RL system is 37-8, 82.2 percent, which includes 2-0 this season.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Felipe Paulino of Houston is 0-12 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall knows a good thing when he sees it and is betting Orlando at -2 at Atlanta today.

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Is it wise to wager on Saturday’s NBA home teams?

The Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks are down 0-2 and neither is given much of a chance to come back in their respective series. That doesn’t mean they won’t give complete effort having slept in the own beds and will feel the energy of the home crowd once they hit the floor. But does either team really have enough, can they play a complete game with the minimum amount of failures and get back into the series to make it interesting at the very least. For the sports bettor, this is what to look for if you want to play these teams.

In primetime on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, Utah is looking forward to adding one more weapon to their depleted arsenal, with Andrei Kirilenko “AK47”, expected to play after missing most of two months with a strained left calf.

Kirilenko is unlikely to be a major factor, but if he can limit Kobe Bryant defensively, while invigorating the offense, that becomes a positive for the Jazz.

Utah is 35-9 and 29-13-2 ATS in home games this season and needs to make an adjustment that is contrary to how they play. Coach Jerry Sloan’s motion offense has again led to Utah being one of the top shooting teams in the NBA at 49 percent, but after awhile, you can’t keep going into the paint against the taller Lakers and have shots stamped “return to sender” continually.

Utah has had 20 blocked field goal attempts already in this series and might be better served to drive and kick out to shooters or use drive-and-stab dribble to create 10-foot shots instead of facing rejections or altered shots.

The Jazz are not going to beat Los Angeles by playing swarming defense, they have to out-shoot them. In Utah’s last 10 wins over the Lakers at home, they have had the higher shooting percentage nine times. In fact, the team that shoots the ball better is 14-1-1 ATS in Salt Lake City since Nov. 3, 2004.

The Jazz are 4.5-point favorites with total of 202.5. Utah is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-6 OVER in double revenge situations. The Lakers are seemingly much better than Utah and appear to get bored when building any substantial lead but are 18-7 ATS after consecutive contests forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.

It’s hard to believe NBA analyst and former coach Hubie Brown is 76 years old, as he still can make watching an NBA game a pleasure, breaking down the teams and players for the more sophisticated fan, yet make salient understandable points for the casual observer. Brown also has the gift of criticizing a player in a manner that isn’t demeaning but fair, but later finding a positive about that same player later in a telecast, just like a coach.

Brown has had plenty of ammo to work with watching the Atlanta. The Hawks were a no-show in Game 1, losing to Orlando by eye-popping 43 points. As presumed, Atlanta showed much more resolve in the next contest and was tied at 83 with the Magic after three quarters.
However, NBA basketball is about performing when it matters most, the fourth quarter.

Atlanta is like a lot of NBA teams, they lacked that killer instinct to take care of opponent in the last 12 minutes and they were outscored 28-15 by Orlando in the final stanza.

For this 5:00 Eastern matchup on ESPN, Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS off a double digit defeat and has to make up their minds they want to play all 48 minutes. This team had impressive wins in the regular season over good clubs and has to bring that same fire for all four quarters. The other component necessary to victory is Mike Bibby playing like a point guard of distinction.

Atlanta has just 28 assists in two games vs. Orlando and Bibby has a grand total of four. Coach Mike Woodson’s team to often lapses into dribbling without purpose, running down the shot clock and taking forced shot attempts. As John Hollinger of ESPN points out, Bibby’s postseason play has been the weakest of the remaining point guards still in the tournament and the Hawks are not talented enough to hide his poor play like the Lakers can do with Derek Fisher or someone else that comes off the bench in Los Angeles. Bibby’s team needs him, it’s time for his to deliver.

The Hawks are catching 2.5-points as home dogs and they will have to do better than 1-8 ATS off a SU loss if they want to continue this series beyond four games. Going up against the hottest team in the playoffs will test their fortitude, since Orlando is on 12-game winning streak and is awe-inspiring 11-1 ATS.

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Are the Atlanta Hawks already finished?

The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. “Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?”

Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying “…we’re looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando”. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is “really?”

Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan “Amazing is ……?

Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldn’t cover up this stink bomb.

After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isn’t in Atlanta’s world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they don’t belong with NBA elite.

After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe “iso” Johnson and Jamal “shot craver” Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly “amazing”.

The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word – team.

Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play “street ball” on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?

Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasn’t because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando. Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop “Superman” was “helpless”. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldn’t find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.

Oddsmakers can’t overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.

Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldn’t mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.

Stayed tuned to ESPN at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.

It's Cinco de Mayo - Stay thirsty my friends

Oh yea, that more like it, two for Tuesday. For Cinco de Mayo (wearing my new Los Suns jersey) have an MLB Super System that is 84.1 percent. The Top Trend is beauty and Paul Buck will have Free Pick before you know it, like right now. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- Hey Atlanta, just a heads up. The second round of the playoffs has started. Yea, I know you are a bit tuckered out from seven games against inferior Milwaukee team and it would have been nice to take nap every day with your favorite blanket like Orlando did after sweeping the Jordan’s.

Well I checked with the NBA and everyone on your team gets a merit badge for attending Game 1. Oh sure you lost by 43, it happens. Don’t worry about shooting 34.6 percent, at least Josh Smith was 7-14 and he got a lollipop from the trainer for doing his best like a good boy.

For your next game against the Magic, I like to make one small suggestion, when the coach yells “Box out” that means you get in front of you man, not stand behind him and get out-rebounded by 18.

So you Hawks, you get ready to do your best and don’t worry about the outcome, because the most important things in life is trying hard and updating your Twitter and Facebook accounts.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road underdogs like the Halos with a money line of +100 to +150, being an AL team with a low on-base percentage of .320 or worse, against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP of 1.350 or less), with a scary bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Over the last five seasons this systems calculates at 37-7.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Houston Astros are 1-12 off consecutive losses.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is on the Chicago Cubs in the Steel City.

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Tuesday's Lineup of Winners (I hope)

Three undistinguished days in a row leaves at 23-13, time to come back with some winners like a Top Trend in hockey or what about Paul hitting Free NBA selection. We have a number of good choices from our article on MLB systems today. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- What is wrong with the Cleveland Cavaliers? No sense of urgency, very tentative and their supposed rock solid defense has more holes than in the Arizona/Mexico border.

Isn’t it great their will one NBA game each of the next two days with two series having three or more days off? After the NBA got its ass whipped by 3 to 1 in viewers by the NFL Draft, might be time to rethink this stupid strategy and just keep playing and have The Finals start on June 1 after the sweeps are done on TV.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) See system listed below.

Free Hockey Trend -2) Pittsburgh is 9-0 off a home loss by two goals or more this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck is 8-2 in last 10 NBA wagers and has Orlando in Game 1.

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Orlando vs Atlanta Series Outlook

The Magic and Hawks took opposite paths to this series matchup, Orlando using only four games, while Atlanta was pushed to full seven. However, this is what the Hawks wanted, they are out to prove they are an elite club deserving of being in the final four of NBA tournament, while this is another stop on the way for the team from central Florida, wanting to repeat as conference champions. What is set to occur, read on.

(2) Orlando vs (3) Atlanta

If the Orlando Magic is a little tight to start Eastern Conference semi-final series with Atlanta don’t be shocked. Not tight like in nervous, more in the muscles being strained, as they haven’t played a NBA game since Mar. 26 in being the only NBA team to sweep opponent.

Though Orlando needed only four contests to send the Bobcats packing, a similar performance could send them home before Memorial Day. Dwight "Foul-On-U" Howard played roughly 54 percent of the time against Charlotte and it had nothing to do with being tired or the Magic being far ahead. Howard was continually in foul trouble and was WAY to easily frustrated by the antics of Bobcats big men and let his ego matter more than the team.

Though Atlanta coach Mike Woodson will not be mentioned in the same sentence with Larry Brown as astute NBA coaching legends, he will learn from what the Charlotte was able to do and work to have Howard take himself out of the game instead of being dominate force.

Vince Carter shot 35.7 percent in first playoff series with Orlando, that won’t cut it against Atlanta. Carter was too tentative and fell back into comfort zone of hoisting jumps shots. (Though he’s not that accomplished at making them) He has to be willing to put the ball on the deck, drive to the rim, get fouled and make free throws to create more wide open chances for jumpers.

If those two players perform up to capabilities, Orlando could have another short series, since Jameer Nelson, Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were burying three’s like “Fito” with his bone in the backyard. In many ways Nelson is the key performer among this trio, as he can force Atlanta to sit Mike Bibby, since he is not a good defender any longer and make the Hawks use Jamal Crawford as more two-way player.

Orlando won three of four meetings with Southeast Division partner, with average margin of victory 22.1 points per game. The Magic come into this series 40-19 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

Coach Woodson wants to believe his club learned something about itself and it will carry over into this next series. Realistically, except for fourth quarter collapse in Game 5, the Hawks have played very good defense for three games and started sharing the ball in the last six quarters.

Atlanta players don’t have to run isolations time after time to score, they get much better offensive flow by passing, cutting and finding open shooters. Though Milwaukee lacked the height to compete with the Hawks inside, the increased offensive movement made them a much better offensive rebounding team which will be a requirement in this series, especially if it leads to fouls on Howard.

On defense, Atlanta was able to pressure the Bucks guards with greater persistence and they will have to have that same gumption with all the Orlando shooters.

To start the series, the better strategy for the Hawks is to man-up the Magic and keep in contact with their sharp-shooters and hope Al Horford can force Howard out to around 10 feet and keep him away from the rim. What hurts Atlanta is when they allow dribble penetration, setting up Howard for easy dunks because of help defense and three-point marksmen are left alone to hit the bulls-eye.

Joe Johnson and Crawford have to be the offensive catalysts as scorers and facilitators. Horford, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams are much better players when they receive passes in their comfort zone.

"We're confident," Hawks center Horford said. "I think we've figured out if we play hard defensively we always give ourselves a chance to win games. And we just have to come out and match their intensity. They have a lot of good shooters, they have Dwight inside. It's going to be a challenge... but we're excited." Atlanta is 5-18 ATS on the road in all playoff games.

Atlanta will have no better chance to grab the upper hand feeding off the momentum of series win and Orlando being rusty for first contest. The Hawks players, at least outwardly believe they can win two series for the first time in franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968. That means playing at a level they are not accustomed to and doing whatever it takes. From talent perspective, they could pull the upset, but Orlando is a bad matchup for them with their style (4-8 SU & ATS) and ultimately prevails.

3Daily Winners Pick- Orlando (-800) in six over Atlanta (+600)

NBA Playoffs offer Monday choices

The first day of last work week of April offers a little something for every sports bettor. Will Orlando be the only team to perform a first round sweep or does Charlotte show pride and head off the inevitable. Milwaukee showed up for Game 3 and ended scrubbing the floor with Atlanta’s jayvee road team. The Bucks will try and even the series. So much for Phoenix having an easy time with Portland, now the thought process has to be who wants it more.

Orlando at Charlotte 8:00E TNT

Without reading the entire boxscore, finding out Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis would score 37 points on 12 for 29 shooting in Charlotte; it would be assumed Orlando would have fallen.

But as J.R.R. Tolkien once said “Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” This is precisely what 6’0 Jameer Nelson has done; scoring 32 points in 90-86 win in Game 3 to lead the Magic to victory.

Nelson is averaging 25.7 points per game and has a turnover about every 36 minutes of play in this series. “I’m not out there trying to shoot every shot,” Nelson said. “It just happens that sometimes you have to, especially if you have it going.”

Orlando now has a commanding 3-0 lead and is 12-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season. Because the Bobcats don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Magic, it’s more a matter of who wants to win this game than overall ability.

Charlotte is 18-5 ATS having lost four of their last five games and veteran coach and vagabond Larry Brown knows what he has seen in the series. “It hasn’t been the defense that has let us down,” Brown said. “Defensive rebounds have been a problem. Turnovers have been a problem. And I think more than anything is poor execution on offense.”

Orlando is a four-point pick and is 25-14 ATS as a road favorite of four points or less and is 21-11 UNDER in this role. The Bobcats will attempt to stave off elimination and are 20-9 ATS after a game as a home underdog, losing by 2.7 points per contest.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road, you think!

Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. (This is family website, thus language tempered) Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just are not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG.

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

DiamondSportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason to some pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

Portland at Phoenix 10:30E TNT

Right before the series, the big news in the basketball desert was Portland was not going to have their best play Brandon Roy, who was having minor surgery on a torn meniscus. Phoenix went out and celebrated their good fortune by going thru the motions in the series opener, falling by five as eight-point favorites.

The Suns took this series seriously the next two contests, pummeling Portland by 29 and 19 points respectively and got their swagger back, making this look like a five-game series was about to unfold.

However, word was Roy’s procedure was so minor he was able to shoot free throws and do straight line running within days and low and behold he was in uniform for Game 4.
With the theme of “Rocky” playing at the Rose Garden, a delirious crowd welcomes backed their superstar and Phoenix fell for it.

It was clear Roy lacked any lateral quickness, but the Suns coaches and players had a welcoming committee whenever he touched the ball, bring an extra man to guard him, for reasons unknown, freeing up other Blazers players.

“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge said with his team 15-4 ATS after two or more Under’s.

Amare Stoudemire brought up what is becoming an annoying theme to Suns fans and backers. “We didn’t bring it, we just didn’t bring it,” Stoudemire said. “We realized how important the game was. We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”

Phoenix is 25-14 ATS after playing a road game and is a six-point favorite with total of 202. If the Suns expect to win this first round Western series they have to force the tempo and are 22-6 OVER at home after two away encounters.

Portland at least knows they are going back home, as they are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog.

NBA homers have to come thru

Charlotte and Milwaukee are in 0-2 holes and will be looking for energy from the home patrons attempting to hold serve in what is a must win scenario. Oklahoma City got the first of two they needed in Game 3 and also have to come up with a another victory, fully understanding what a daunting task it would be to go to L.A. having to win down 3-1 in the series. The roundball adventure continues for home clubs needing to come up big.

Orlando at Charlotte 2:00E TNT

Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson have accounted for 51.2 percent of the Bobcats offense, which suggests that others have to tickle the twine since Charlotte’s has two “L’s” to begin the series.

Charlotte is not a good outside shooting team, depending more on slashing and driving to the rim and collecting fouls for free throw attempts. Their loss Wednesday night was perfect illustration off what has gone wrong.

The Bobcats could not solve Orlando’s defensive schemes and committed 19 turnovers and had 17 fewer attempts from the charity stripe than the Magic (35-18).

"Our defense is keeping us in it, and our offense is keeping us out of the game," said center Tyson Chandler. "We can't come off what we do and just look for our jump shots. We're not a jump-shot team and not a 1-on-1 team.” Charlotte is 9-18 ATS after not covering two of their last three against the spread this season.

The Bobcats have to rev up the offense and are 15-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or less and 16-5 ATS after totaling 35 points or less in the first half.

They are two-point underdogs to Orlando, with total of 184.5 and the Magic are 16-4 ATS off two exact home contests. Coach Stan Van Gundy will seek similar balance as the last contest with five double digit scorers and the top four averaging 10-12 shots each.
Orlando has won five of last six in downtown Charlotte, covering four times and the UNDER is 5-1.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:30E ESPN

The Bucks have had ample time to correct their inadequacies, last playing Tuesday night. Milwaukee has been within contact in both games with Atlanta, but the general sense was the Hawks have not been really threatened in the series.

Milwaukee has to improve dramatically in transition defense if they expect to come out a winner in Game 3.

“As athletic as they are, it’s not like anybody’s dunking in a crowd on us. They’re wide open. The balls are going up, and they’re finishing them,” coach Scott Skiles explaining the 11 dunks and 19 layups his team allowed in the first two games. “All we’re comparing ourselves to is ourselves. We normally don’t give that stuff up. We need to not give that easy stuff up.”

The Bucks were the best cover team in the NBA this season at 51-28-3 ATS, but have dropped the first two in postseason. They are 14-4 ATS at the Bradley Center after two games as a road underdog.

The Bucks fans will be cascading boo’s down to Atlanta’s Josh Smith, who evidently has had too much time off and wants a part-time Travel Channel gig.

Smith was asked about what he would with his free time in Milwaukee and if he would ever vacation there. “Would you go? Would you go? Would you go up there?” Smith responded. “Everybody knows there ain’t nothing to do in Milwaukee, man. Everybody knows that.” Hello boo-birds.

Atlanta is a one-point underdog at Bookmaker.com and will be presented with a challenge, since Milwaukee is 19-6 and 14-10-1 ATS at home in 2010, however two of the spread losses have come from the Hawks. The Bucks are 13-4 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers and the Birds are 4-16 ATS as visitors in all playoff matchups.

L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City 9:30E ESPN

The Lakers had been dismissing talk of uninspired play for over a month, saying when the playoffs arrived they would be like a warship ready for battle, with all hands on deck. In their first true challenge of the playoffs (a No. 1 seed winning at home over a No. 8 doesn’t count), Los Angeles lacked the mental and physical capacity to succeed on the road, losing in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma City.

The Thunder outworked and showed greater desire in winning the crucial final 12 minutes 27-21, after holding one-point lead in the final stanza.

Oklahoma City is now 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record of late and can even this series if the Phil Jackson’s lethargic club settles for long jumps shots (31 three-point attempts) and doesn’t work the ball better into the paint. When Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison were paired together, they bottled up the Lakers big men in the lane and they offered little resistance in demanding the ball.

Though smaller in stature, OKC’s big guys were superior in boxing out the taller L.A. bunch and destroyed them on the glass with effort and hustle 53-39.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates continue to be play without discipline and have the patience of a three year old. Kevin Durant had more free throws than the Lake Show (13-12) and Bryant returned to selfish ways of seeking his shot, which could be a function of the rest of the Lakers players not actively working to take quality shots. It’s no wonder they are 13-24 ATS in second half of the season this season.

The Thunder are two-point favorites and are 13-3 ATS when the favored by 4.5 or less, with L.A. 2-8 ATS in reverse role of 4.5 or fewer points underdog. With the total at 193.5, the purple clad Lakers are 12-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by 1.9 points a game.

Are NBA home teams wise bets tonight?

Orlando and Dallas each won their opening first round game and look to build a solid 2-0 lead in their series before taking to the road for a pair. Both teams have been a solid investment of late; however both are matched against division foes that know them well. Can they continue to win or do two coaching legends come up with ways to not only cover the spread, but derail plans of sweeping the initial home encounters.

Coach we’re paying attention, really

The Magic rather easily built a 22-point in the third quarter against Charlotte, before the Bobcats got with the program and started to play closer to their abilities.

Charlotte was too excited to start Game 1 – “We were a little nervous starting off the game, and they knew it,” forward Gerald Wallace said.

But with some well-timed coaxing from coach Larry Brown, Charlotte battled back to 85-80 by being the aggressor and getting Dwight Howard off his game with extremely physical play.
Howard admitted to receiving little sleep the night before, anxious to start the playoffs and he played liked someone tired and irritable with not enough time on the pillow. Howard had as many fouls as points (5), playing less than 28 minutes. “Superman” was less than super with only seven boards and took silly fouls.

“Their big guys are going to hit him every chance they get. And if he gets one foul retaliating, they’ve done their job,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He can’t get any of those. He’s just going to have to understand no matter how many times they hit him, he can’t hit back. We need him on the floor.”

Orlando came up just short of covering the 9.5-point spread with 98-89 victory and is 21-11 ATS off a home win this season.

The Bobcats are expected to be much more relaxed this time with Wallace and Stephen Jackson as the scoring leaders. Charlotte is 18-9 ATS versus good three point shooting teams (36 percent or higher) and must do a better job containing Jameer Nelson, who was 4-8 from beyond the arc and scored 24 of his 32 points in the second half. Nelson missed the first three rounds of the playoffs a year ago and wants to show his skills this spring.

The Magic are 18-5 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins and are 20-3 and 15-7-1 ATS since the beginning of March. DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 8.5-point pick with total of 186 and they are 17-7 UNDER off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

If Orlando loses focus again, Charlotte will try to sneak right in and Jordanaires are 22-9 ATS after covering two of last three against the spread and are 16-5 OVER playing only their second game in a week.

In Dirk we trust

It’s often been said in NBA circles that if Dirk Nowitzki is your best player, the chances of NBA title are remote. In his career, Nowitzki has had his postseason up and downs, however has been a much steadier performer in recent years. His Game 1 effort against oft-seen rival San Antonio, deep in the heart of Texas, was close to perfection.

Nowitzki scored 36 points on 12-14 shooting, wore out the nets sinking all 12 free throw attempts and grabbed seven boards while committing a single turnover. “Sometimes,” Nowitzki said, “you have one of those nights where the basket is big.”

The Mavericks have now defeated the Spurs six straight times on their home floor (5-1 ATS) and were the bigger and more aggressive team on Sunday. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood out-muscled and out-hustled San Antonio, contributing to 45-37 edge on the glass.

Richard Jefferson was brought to San Antonio to make them younger on the wings and add speed and quickness. For most of the season he’s looked lost in black uniform and he was non-factor again with four points on four shots. The Spurs are piteous 9-23 ATS revenging a road loss the last two seasons.

Coach Gregg Popovich’s defensive strategy might have to be altered if Nowitzki starts Game 2 where he left off. San Antonio played the German forward straight up with approximately five different defenders, eschewing the double team, trying to cover the other Mavs.

Tony Parker lacked his usual zip to the rim and the Spurs ball-handling was atrocious with 17 turnovers, 11 in the opening 12 minutes.

Dallas is a 3.5-point home favorite and coach Rick Carlisle leaned heavy on his starters, with only three subs seeing significant time. The Mavericks have built six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS) and despite a yearlong of bad angles, they are 18-7 ATS playing with two days rest since last season.

San Antonio lacked their usual crispness and is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists a game. The Spurs are 23-9 OVER in revenge-mode off a road loss.
Both NBA playoff battles are on TNT, with the first game at 7:05 Eastern.