College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Big 10 (11) Title Game Preview

The Minnesota Golden Gophers know how to add simple numbers. If they can count 3, 2 and 1, Minnesota will be the Big Ten postseason champions for 2010. The Golden Gophers dropped third-seeded Michigan State 72-67 in overtime on Friday night and humiliated second seeded Purdue 69-42 yesterday and have their sights set on No. 1 Ohio State in the final game before the NCAA Tournament begins.

This is the first time the Golden Gophers have playing for the Big Ten championship and they believe in themselves. “I feel we can compete with any team in the country and I feel we can compete with any team in the Big Ten,” said forward Ralph Sampson III, who had a team-high 13 points Saturday. “We’ve proven it in this tournament right now.”

Minnesota is coached expertly by Tubby Smith and has won seven of nine and is adding up spread wins faster than the 10,000 lakes are melting with 8-1 ATS run. The Gophers were actually presumed to be better most of the season but again struggled away from home (4-9 and 3-10 ATS before hitting Indianapolis this weekend) until now.

Minnesota has place a guillotine on opposing offenses in this tournament, holding them to 35.6 percent shooting and is 9-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

Ohio State is definitely living by the March basketball motto of “survive and advance”. The Buckeyes have won on a combination of luck, skill and opponents breakdowns to reach the championship, seeking a third title.

Evan Turner sank a 37-footer at the buzzer to shock Michigan in the quarter-finals and needed 50 minutes to eliminate Illinois yesterday afternoon. The Wolverines used poor judgment in allowing Turner to have such a good look at the basket for winning shot (though he deserves credit for making it) and the Fighting Illini had two chances at the end of regulation and the first overtime to oust Ohio State and never managed a shot.

The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more (though it took awhile) over the last three seasons and are surviving on guile as much as skill. “Sometimes you just have to will your way and make things happen and that’s it,” said Turner.

Ohio State is favored by four-points, with total of 129.5 at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 7-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record, but only 1-4 ATS against foes on neutral floors. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS the last five times they’ve been made an underdog (4-1 SU) and is 6-0 OVER after allowing 55 points or less this season.

This is the last conference championship, which will begin at 3:30 Eastern on CBS and the favorite in the matchup is perfect 8-0 SU and ATS.

Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends

Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.

Big East Conference

In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.

On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).

Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%).

Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).

A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.

FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.

Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Big 12 Conference
There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.

The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.

On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.

Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

Conference-USA

The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.

Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.

The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.

C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.

With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).

Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.

There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).

UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.

FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.

The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.

FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.

UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.

The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

Big West Conference
The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.

More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.

The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.

There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.

The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.

FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Big Ten Conference
For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.

There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).

FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.

Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.

LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Atlantic Coast Conference
ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.

UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.

How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.

Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.

Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.

The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

Mid-American Conference

FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.

The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.

The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.

OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

Southeastern Conference
The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.

Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.

In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.

Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.

UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).

In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference
UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).

Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.

Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.

The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total.

Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.

Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Conference Tourney Betting Info -You Gotta Know

Don't have a lot of time to read thru all the information relating to conference tournament games and matchups. Well here is a brief look ahead at 12 tourneys, with concise, pointed info and few angles to consider, along with who should be playing in the title games from each conference. It's worth the time to take a few minutes to get your game face on.

Conference USA Preview – March 10-13

It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.

UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.

Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.

Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final

Championship -11:30ET, CBS

Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13

This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.

Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).

Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.

Prediction: California and Washington final

Championship -6:00ET, CBS

Big 12 Preview - March 10-13

The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.

Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.

Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.

Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN

MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13

Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.

The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.

The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.

Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final

Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2

Mountain West Preview - March 10-13

The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.

UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.

Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.

Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final

Championship -7:00ET, Versus

Big East Preview - March 9-13

For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.

In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.

This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.

Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final

Championship -9:00ET, ESPN

Big West Preview – March 10-13

Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.

UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.

This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.

Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final

Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2

WAC Preview – March 11-13

Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.

Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.

Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final

Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2

SEC Preview – March 11-14

This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.

The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.

This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.

Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final

Championship -1:00ET, ABC

Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14

The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.

The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.

Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final

Championship -1:00ET, CBS

ACC Preview – March 11-14

The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.

The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.

Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.

Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final

Championship -1:00ET, ESPN

Big Ten Preview – March 11-14

It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.

Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.

These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final

Championship -3:30ET, CBS

Something new for Sunday

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple's 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown. But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if Temple can beat LaSalle they'll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad. Since their blowout loss at Richmond , the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair. Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals "surge" as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino's charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse. The Cardinal are on a 3-10 pointspread run overall. Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they've won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova. Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse . A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. If you don't have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal. All you're missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight. Iowa has lost 8 of 9. Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries. Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either. Northwestern is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven't had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game. The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite. Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few "power conferences" there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon. Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament. It is clearly Sunday's most attractive matchup, and you'll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

Written by Kevin O'Neill of Real World Sports.com

Hurry up Tuesday

This whole 2-1 thing is working out rather well for bankroll builders. Have to make this quick, running late I know. Kick ass Kyle has another hopefully Free Winner. The Top Trend is perfection and a 83.3 percent Big Ten system is runnin’. Good Luck

What I thought today- (From 11:30 MST) The NBA returns to complete the remainder of the regular season and rumors and trades are flying fast and furious as teams look to position themselves for playoff seedings and runs. NBA bettors will have to adjust quickly.

As for today, the time off can not only break the rhythm of a given team, but also the handicapper. Excessive time off can create doubt, which is shown by not one game having moved more than a point on side action. Totals have shown more movement with New Jersey at Charlotte up two from opening 185.5 and Clippers and Trailblazers up 2.5-points to 193.5.

Possibly another explanation is bettors are getting a late start or the numbers are sharp, since the only side move of note in college basketball betting is Murray State, moving from -25 to -27, not exactly desirable either way for a team that wins by 23.8 points per game at home and holds opponents to 38.4 shooting.

The college totals are showing action heading in both directions. Favorites Hofstra, Georgia State, Virginia Tech and Michigan have all had totals move upward, anywhere from 2.5 to four points.

Underdogs North Carolina and Cincinnati have seen their matchups drop at least two points from original number.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play on road favorites of 10 or more points like Michigan State in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32-36.5 percent), with the Spartans a good ball handling team at 14.4 or less turnovers vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15 or more games on the year. Since 1997 this system is 25-5 ATS.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Indiana State is 8-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning by 8.2 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Even though I’ve been doing almost as well as Kyle, he’s on cruise control lapping the field. He likes Georgia Tech big tonight.

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Does hot shooting matter (for wagering) in college hoops?

In the late 1990’s, a person I had known for a number years had told me about a method of betting college and professional basketball that he used as part of his way of picking games. His reasoning was sound; though I’d never taken the time to go on a fact finding mission to see if what he was saying was true.

Over the years I never forgot he told me and would use his methodology as one last piece of the wagering puzzle in looking at a given contest. Three years ago I delved into the NBA numbers and found his idea to be somewhat accurate, with one area more profitable than the other. With a bit more time to look into different elements with football fading away in the rearview mirror, decided to check his beliefs in college hoops.

My gambling friend said this – Bet on college basketball teams that shoot 55 to 59.9 percent in last game and wager against those that connect on 60 percent or better of shot attempts in the same circumstance.

His logic was this, if a team shot the ball extremely well, in the 55 to almost 60 percent range, this would have a positive carryover affect into the next encounter, regardless of the opponent. The team would be playing with extreme confidence and though they might not win, they ended up playing well enough to cover the spread.

Concerning teams shooting 60 percent or higher, that is almost a freakish occurrence, as teams made a large number of shots close the bucket or they just shot “lights out”. Since this was such an unusual event, invariably the basketball gods would punish this team and they would shoot below their average in the next contest and lose against the spread. Again, sound logic.
For every college basketball team that shoots 55 to 59.5 percent, just over a third of the time (37.3 percent) will any team shoot 60 percent or higher. I went thru 18 different conferences to see what kind of results I could find for this season. If a team made enough shots in either category but did not face an opponent that would yield a pointspread, I discounted that game. Otherwise, everything else mattered.

Starting with the 55-59.9 percent range, the results were hugely disappointing. Through yesterday, teams that converted this many shots were 138-83 SU, with 107-110-5 ATS record. Not only were these teams not a good bet, they weren’t even .500.

Have to admit to being shocked, since over the years as I stated earlier, I had used this as part of handicapping arsenal and believed it was somewhat beneficial. Not having the time to check back over several years does leave open questions, however thinking about it, because the diversity of college opponents is far more varied for any team compared to the NBA, I could at least reason why this was the end result.

A number of the results did reveal or at least cause a moment of betting reflection. The Big East is the biggest conference, thus they have the most number of games that fit the criteria and the winners were 18-6 and 12-10-2 ATS. The A-10 has 14 teams despite its name and they were third with 16 qualifiers at 9-7 and 7-9 ATS, which is a rather low win percentage considering the number of baskets per attempts. The Big 12 was second in volume of games at 14-4, with unimpressive 7-11 ATS mark.

Teams from the Big Ten were 12-4 and 10-6 ATS; with Horizon League squads having same exact spread record with 7-9 SU mark.

A few other aspects stood out and are noteworthy. The Colonial Athletic Conference and MAC are well-respected mid-majors so to speak, with 12 teams in each league, yet they have had only six and eight games that made this study. It is to be presumed these conferences don’t have the same talent level as so-called BCS conferences, yet once you get beyond non-conference play, they are matched up against similar competition. Just an observation.

St. Mary’s and Syracuse are 5-0 ATS and 7-0 ATS respectively after shooting 55 to 59.9 percent this season.

The next area was also a surprise on a couple of levels and though better for gamblers, not overwhelming.

It starts with teams shooting 60 percent or higher are 54-34 SU in next game, which is 61.3 percent. The lower winning percentage made sense given how they played the previous outing, yet the spread results were nothing better than fair (in my opinion) at 40-48 ATS, 45.4 percent.

Once again perception vs. reality is frequently different and while this is just one not completed college basketball season, these are the facts as I could find. Its fun to note the Pac-10 is having a down year and teams off a hot shooting night of 60 percent or better are 3-3 with 1-5 ATS record, more in line with my thinking.

We’ve all witnessed Georgetown’s ups and downs and they are 0-3 SU and ATS after bursting to 60 percent bubble this year.

The final conclusion is it’s not a bad idea to bet against teams after they shoot the ball extremely well and this could be particularly true if they are facing a solid defensive club. Otherwise, burning the nets doesn’t carry much weight in betting on next contest.

One final sad, yet mildly humorous note. I had not spoken to this individual in a few years since we both moved away from where we used to live and I called him to tell him about this article and research and before I could even give him all the results he blurted out “I haven’t used that in years for college buckets, doesn’t work to well these days”. Now I find out.

Another example of always trying to understand the ever changing world of sports betting.

It's the last of January, let's win!

The 1-3 record didn’t make me happy, but what shocked me was Louisiana Tech losing outright at home. Today we’ll take a peek how a Big Ten coach does in a specific situation for Top Trend. The Best System is the NBA and north of the border. My pal Paul Buck continues to shine and has a Big East play as his best. Good Luck

What I thought today- A fair amount of games today, but not a lot to get the juices flowing. I’ll catch a couple while watching a few replays from yesterday that I could view. I will have full commentary about weekend hoops on Monday.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home teams like Toronto who shoot 45.5-47.5 percent range against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), being an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game). Have to like the fact this system is 29-6 ATS, 82.9 percent the last five seasons.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Coach Matt Painter of Purdue is 14-3 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers game past the midway points of the year.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Paul Buck was 1-1 here yesterday, but was 7-3 in CBB and 2-0 in the NBA and is backing Pittsburgh in Tampa today.

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Badgers try to sweep Boilers

Annually one of the most confounding teams in the country is Wisconsin. Even though Bo Ryan can X and O with the best in college basketball, a look at the roster before the season screams of this school not being in the Top 125 talent-wise. Yet here they are, in second place the Big Ten Conference with 6-2 record, which appears to be improved over recent years. The Badgers (16-4, 10-8 ATS) will lean a little heavier on guard Trevon Hughes, with versatile forward Jon Leuer out three to four more weeks with broken wrist. Wisconsin is 7-3 ATS vs. teams like Purdue allowing 64 or less points a game this season.

Last week, the Boilermakers (16-3, 9-10 ATS) broke their three-game losing skid at Illinois 84-78, getting a lift from unlikely source which seemed to elevate the entire squad. John Hart, who had played all of 33 minutes and wasn’t even in official score book for that game, came off the bench to score 14 points (12 in second half) to lead Purdue charge. Coach Matt Painter hopes this leads to others being productive off the bench which invigorates the team to play more for each other, instead of feeling pressured to produce on individual basis. Purdue is 15-7 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last three seasons.

Wisconsin has seen guard Jordan Taylor rise to the occasion with the absence of Leuer, scoring and displaying all around floor game. This could be challenging spot the Badgers; since they are 4-9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning home record.

Purdue is still jittery home favorite, sporting 9-1 and .500 spread record. The win at Champaign was followed up with mauling Michigan in first half 43-27, but let backers down in being outscored by six points in final stanza and failing to cover the 13-point spread.

The Boilers have normally blasted the Badgers at home and are on 8-1 SU and ATS run against them, which is why Bookmaker.com has them as 9.5-point favorites. Purdue is 9-2 when playing with three or more days rest, nonetheless is vile 3-8 ATS with this much time to practice.

Wisconsin took the earlier meeting 73-66 at the Kohl Center as one-point home underdogs and has covered six of last seven Thursday throw-downs.

This Big Ten battle is in the 7:00 Eastern Time slot on ESPN with a total of 126 and the Badgers are 1-10 UNDER on the road and Purdue is 6-2 OVER on Thursday nights.

Knowing Football Numbers Builds Bankrolls

Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when the sportsbooks where whining like adult babies about all the favorites winning and they were suffering heavy losses, well they were strangely quiet after this weekend and for good reason. The books cleaned up as NFL favorites were 3-10 against the spread. They reaped the benefits of Green Bay losing outright to Tampa Bay, helping them take in a great deal of teaser money. The San Diego Chargers come from behind victory was also a boom, as heavy betting by Giants fans figuring their team couldn’t lose four in a row, was flushed away. NFL favorites are 28-38-1 ATS the last five weeks.

This helps set up a very interesting Week 10 in the NFL, as teams off road underdog outright wins are 13-6-1 ATS. This week Tennessee, San Diego, Dallas and Arizona all qualify.

It used to be only sharps would bet football early and it would be relatively easy to track what top bettors were playing. It seems as least this year that has not been the case. In the NFL, games that move two or more points on sides by Tuesday night are 5-9 ATS in that direction and totals are even worse 6-12. That’s not to say sharp bettors don’t have off years. But last week was perfect example of patterns not following traditional methods of smart bettors. New Orleans shot from 8.5 to 11-point favorite in a division game against Atlanta and defensive-minded clubs Denver and Baltimore opened at 40 and rose to 42 quickly. Over the years, that is contrarian to their normal wagering patterns.

The Midwest might be facing declining population and the Big Ten clearly is not what it used to be, however these fans still support football and backing them with cash is still frequented. It was a dreadful day for alumni betting on their favorites and the books pocketed handsomely. In games between Big Ten Conference foes, the underdog was perfect 5-0 ATS, with four outright road upsets.

After coming up short most of the season, college home underdogs are showing some bite with 22-14 ATS record the last couple of weeks. Teams off three exact covers (no bye weeks) are 6-14-1 ATS the last month. Teams that force or commit five or more turnovers are 22-8-1 ATS the last month if they play the following week.

Though the numbers has dropped off from ridiculous proportions, totals moves of three or more points from opening until closing are still scintillating 106-56-2, 65.4 percent in the direction they’ve moved and have yet to have a losing week all season.

Buckeyes manhood to be called out as home underdog

These are unusual times in Columbus, Ohio, especially considering its football time. The Ohio State University football program has turned into Pepsi. Though the product sells, is well liked among most consumers, it still pales in comparison to Coca-Cola. (Florida and USC in this case) The Big Ten Conference was once the most feared in the land, but like the shifting population base of the country, the upper Midwest just isn’t like it used to be and has become the butt of jokes in every visible sports formats.

Ohio State has taken on a lot of grief in the latter part of this decade, after being the model everyone was trying to copy not that many seasons ago. Three trips to Arizona produced one national championship and a pair of Fiesta Bowl wins from 2003 to 2006. Since then, two disconcerting losses to the SEC in the BCS title games and a “pat on the head” effort that ended in defeat to Texas in Glendale, AZ earlier in 2009.

The Buckeyes were exposed last year also in Los Angeles, as the Men of Troy laid a 35-3 shellacking on Ohio State, who was out-gained 348 to 207, with USC pretty much running a victory lap the last 20 minutes. Midwesterners are a prideful bunch who enjoy a good time, however there is nothing fun about being embarrassed, as Ohio State players could only watch and seethe as joyful USC players took satisfaction in slaying another wanna-be.

If last year’s game was a September Rose Bowl, then this year’s is about pride, Ohio State pride. Though USC has more NFL-ready players on their roster than the Detroit Lions, the Buckeyes couldn’t be in a better spot unless the Trojans top 50 players came down with the swine flu this week.

Though the Trojans are highly ranked in part based on pedigree, they have potential signs of weakness. Start with the personnel, where USC only returned three defensive starters. Yes, the replacements might be as good or better in time, but last year’s Trojan defense was one of the best in the last 30 years as a group. This preseason, three starters have been lost and Aaron Corp, the quarterback who had won the job in the spring, missed enough time which allowed true freshman Matt Barkley to step forward.

Barkley is receiving more praise then former Golden Domer Ron Powles (where is Beano Cook?), with precious little game experience. Barkley might well be the next great NFL quarterback, but first he has to prove he’s the best USC field general this season and will have to so in hostile Ohio environment. Barkley will be behind one of the top three offensive lines in the college game and playing on a squad that thrives in the limelight with 13-3 and 12-4 ATS record against Top 10 teams since 2001.

USC also has two new coordinators, one on each side of the ball. While coach Pete Carroll has said all the right things about his two hand-picked replacements, are the players sold on the new guys?

Ohio State can upset USC and here is how. The Buckeyes have a very good defensive line and have to have a draw against the Trojans O-Line. They must make it uncomfortable for Barkley in the pocket and force him to make quick decisions. The Ohio State defensive backs have to challenge USC’s receivers and take away medium to long gains. Force USC to move the chains using up three downs at a time.

Sophomore sensation Terrelle Pryor has stated he wants the pressure of being “the man” and he’ll have to be. Tressel has been working with “Pistol” formations, giving Pryor more latitude to make decisions. He’ll have to throw accurately to make Carroll’s defense respect the pass. Ohio State has a retooled offensive line that was overwhelmed last year, that can’t happen again. Running backs Dan Herron and Brandon Saine have to hit the hole hard and fight for tough yards to keep Ohio State in reasonable down and distance numbers.

Bookmaker.com opened Ohio State at 4.5-point underdogs and the wagering public couldn’t get enough and quicker than you could dot the “I” in Ohio, they became seven point dogs based in large part on how they had to hold on against the Navy.

The Buckeyes will be a home underdog for just the fourth time in the last decade and face USC club that is 13-4 ATS against Big Ten conference opponents and 11-1 SU and ATS in initial road game of the season. Ohio State is 0-4 ATS against the Pac-10’s finest, having last hosted them in 1990, losing 35-26 as one-point dogs. As of this moment, this looks like one for ESPN Classic or a repeat of last year, we shall see Saturday night.

Looking ahead in the rear view mirror

Coaching is often an overlooked aspect of sports betting. Sometimes how a coach prepares a team will have a direct impact on the outcome of a game. Oregon and Illinois were two examples of teams that looked extremely unprepared despite plenty of talk from the respective squads how they were going to dish out revenge.

New coach Chip Kelly’s team was impatient on offense and was completely befuddled by Boise State’s defense. No ability to run or pass in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as the final score.

Ron Zook is starting to look very much like he did in Florida, making Illinois an impossible wager. The Illini defense had a few big hits but was outclassed by a prepared Missouri offense. Juice Williams looked like he was past the expiration date and was totally ineffective. After Illinois State this week, the stumbling Illini are at Ohio State, host Penn State and at Michigan State. This team will win when it’s has no chance and lose in spectacular fashion, just like the “Zooker” teams did in Gainesville.

The Big Ten was 10-1, but 1-6 ATS. Ohio State was shaky, Wisconsin had to battle, Minnesota went to overtime with Syracuse and Iowa needed consecutive blocked field goal attempts to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.

At least the Big Ten won a number of games, the ACC was 4-6 and 1-4 ATS. Two of the spread losses were outright upsets as home favorites and Virginia fell at home 26-14 to William and Mary, (maybe they should have just played Mary) and Duke was rounded up by Richmond 24-16. About the only positive for either conference is league play should be competitive.

Syracuse played with more energy than anyone has seen in years and could have beaten Minnesota. Former Duke point guard Greg Paulus gave good accounting as starting Orangemen quarterback after not playing football for four years.

The Washington Huskies are not going to have a winning record; however they will be much improved, with a good offense led by quarterback Jake Locker. Definite underdog and back door potential with the Huskies.

Alabama could be VERY good come October. What’s so impressive about the Crimson Tide is they have players with large bodies and posteriors who can run and really smack people. The offensive line will only get better and they appear to have ability to wear down opponents in the fourth quarter. This team will be quickly overvalued.

Does Notre Dame FINALLY have something in the works? We’ll know more against improved Michigan, but the real tests will come later.

Tennessee and Auburn showed they might be better than expected, however sports bettors shouldn’t get too excited just yet. Both schools were playing at home in very positive environments that lent themselves to big opening games against inferior competition. Were the wins and covers impressive, yes, but much like the U.S. Open tennis tournament being played in New York, the Vols and Tigers just held serve, Let’s see when adversity strikes and see how they react.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins challenged his team to think big in the off-season and said the goal was to win 10 games in 2009. That task just became a little tougher after being upset 23-17 as 13-point favorites in Boulder. The worst part was the Buffalos looked similar to other teams viewed this weekend; they just weren’t mentally prepared for first game of the season in trailing 17-0, which is inexcusable.

Games to watch this week include Notre Dame at Michigan to see which team is further ahead or possibly can North Carolina defeat Connecticut, as the Huskies were popular play against team last week at Ohio and are 33-17 (20-12-1 ATS) at home since 2003. South Carolina becomes a big opponent for Georgia who hasn’t lost first two games since 1996. East Carolina and West Virginia won’t receive a lot of national exposure, but is important contest for both teams. The Pirates want to show they are Top 25 team and the Mountaineers want to prove they are still the team to beat in the Big East.

Study the numbers

Those who wagered early were not particularly effective with 5-8 ATS record on the sides and 2-3 mark on totals that moved 2.5 or more points as of last Tuesday.

Favorites were 20-19 against the spread and double digit home favorites were 11-9 ATS. Home underdogs didn’t have much luck with 3-5 ATS record.

In studying the final numbers, games in which the final number moved three points or greater, the wagering public was 9-5 ATS on the sides and 6-4-1 on the totals. Overall, the Under was the play at press time with 22-17-1 record for week one.

NCAA Tourney Changing, Somewhat for the Better (Bettor)

It was an eventful first four days of the men’s basketball tourney and it is readily apparent things are in the process of change. When a team like Arizona, who has been to the tournament as often as a sunny day in Tucson, is the Cinderella story, well you can see the landscape is changing. The charm of big time upsets and unnatural storylines is giving way to the “chalk” ruling tournaments.

The NCAA Tournament is the only of its kind where the beginning of the post-season is more anticipated than the end. Do millions of people fill out Wild Card weekend brackets in the NFL or wait for the Super Bowl. The start of the NBA playoffs is met with the excitement of “Samantha Who” returning to airwaves. (If you don’t what that show is, the line is on the left) The Baseball and Hockey playoffs, be serious, unless you are big fan of either sport.

What we are left with isn’t so bad, as the matchups could hardly be more intriguing and whoever ends up being national champion, will not have any easy games left on the docket. It just points to the selection committee doing there jobs with excellence.

The Big East had five of their seven picked teams make the Sweet 16, setting up the possibility of East Regional final between top seeded Pittsburgh and Villanova. The Panthers were the shakiest team to advance, playing two rather emotionless affairs, while coming away victorious. Regular and post-season champion Louisville was pushed by Siena, which might be a good thing for the Cardinals. Overall the Big East stands at 11-2 and 6-7 ATS.

The Big 12 validated themselves as a strong conference that was probably a little underrated with 8-3 showing and having three teams advance. The Big 12 was tremendous 11-1 against the spread.

The ACC was trying to convince others in January that its conference was every bit as good as the Big East. Not many were buying, feeling the elite teams where as good as any other league, just not the whole contingent. This was proven with North Carolina and Duke making this round. The ACC didn’t show well with .500 record and paltry 3-6-1 ATS record.

There are those that felt the Big Ten was surprise this season, being better than anticipated, however the tournament has shown the league to be slighting above average with Michigan State and Purdue advancing. Collectively, the Big Ten is 6-5 and 4-7 ATS.

This was supposed to be mildly down year for the Pac-10, but after the first round, opinions were about to change with first round record of 5-1 and 4-2 ATS mark. Then the reality of stiffer competition set in and only the presumed last team invited, Arizona, had what it took to move on and the Pac-10 is 6-5 and 5-6 ATS at present.

The SEC was ridiculed all season and was quietly dispatched with 1-3 SU and ATS record and doesn’t have a team in the Sweet 16 for the first time in two decades.

Other Betting Notes:

In the first round, the higher seed was 21-11 with an undesirable 10-21-1 ATS record. When you include the play-in game, favorites were 22-11 and 11-21-1 ATS.

The second round brought quick and abrupt change for higher seeds and favorites, with 15-1 and 12-4 against the spread record.

In the opening round, the Over did slightly better with 18-15 mark, which was followed up by dominating 12-4 Over record on the weekend.

All top three seeds advanced to next round with 18-0 record and were 10-7-1 ATS.

The at-large teams, who in many cases were going to be in the tournament, just didn’t have the automatic bid, were 18-6 and 14-10 ATS when not matched against a team with the same credentials.

All teams that won the regular season title and not playing a team that did the same were 7-8 and 8-7 ATS.

After being a strong play in the second round, No.10 seeds were 0-3 SU and ATS.

Observations:

The Michigan State and USC contest was like watching an Elite Eight contest, based on the skill of the players and intensity.

Duke might be done, since their days of being a dominant team in this event are over, unless they find a big man, like the Christian Laettner and Cherokee Parks days. I’ve heard the reason Coach K can’t land a top big man is all of the coaches were guards and today’s players want to make move to get to NBA and want coaches who can develop their skills.

I wonder what St. Mary’s was thinking watching Arizona advance.

Watching Pac-10 player of the year James Hardin, brought to mind, Where’s Waldo?

Not sure what CBS needs to do, but their analyst line-up is no longer compelling. Everyone likes different aspects and Bill Raftery and Bob Wenzel make strong observations and will speculate along with having charm. Mike Giminski, Jim Spanarkle, Len Elmore and Dan Bonner are all competent, you just never learn anything.

Jay Bilas is the best of all the newer analysts over the last couple of years; however his unbelievably frequent use of the term “ball screen” is past the point of being over done.

While many people didn’t like Billy Packer for any number of his faults, he had a keen eye of observation and was able to pick out nuisances of what was happening on the floor. Clark Kellogg has been garden variety for a lead announcer and resembles one of his often quirky phrases. “Like a screen-saver, lots of activity, just not much gets done.”

Big 10(11) Fraught with Danger for Bettors

The Big Ten Tournament is often a lot like watching your clothes in the wash cycle, not to exciting and everything keeps bumping into each other. If you live in the Midwest or are from there, don’t get all defensive, it’s just the way basketball is played in that area of the country, it’s hard and mean, very similar to the weather most of the year.

However, if you were a fan of either of the George Bush’s as Presidents or Ronald Reagan for that matter, Big Ten basketball is everything that is right about the world (no pun intended), because it is about playing defense and protecting your territory.

The four quarterfinal matchups bring an element of fear to the sports bettor, because this conference is bunched very closely. Michigan State proved to be head and shoulders above everyone else, winning by four games over nearest competitors. The bottom feeders, Indiana and Iowa have been rightly dispatched and based on history, Northwestern being ousted is not going to be on the home page of TMZ.com.

This leaves us with eight teams and this is where the intrigue begins. Michigan State is lock for next week and is playing for higher seed. Illinois and Purdue are safe, yet both need to win or could fall into dreaded 7vs 10 or 8 vs 9 matchups, which are the proverbial roll of the dice. The rest, well they have work to do.

Most bracketologists have Wisconsin and Ohio State safe; however it can never hurt to have one more win. This matchup takes on relevance since the winner can have a better story to tell being on CBS Saturday afternoon and have a legit shot at playing in the tournament finals. Sportbook.com has Wisconsin as two-point favorite, having won seven of last nine.

Though the Badgers have thrived in this event, this is not the same caliber of team. Wisky’s defense isn’t nearly as stout, with opponents making 44 percent of shot attempts. The offense has become known for being consistently inconsistent. In their last seven games, Wisconsin has shot in the 40 to 49.9 percent range just once, finishing three times in the 30’s and three times in the 50+ percent area.

The Buckeyes have won three of four, yet are 2-4 ATS in last six. Put Ohio State down for 16-6 ATS in all tournament games recently.

Just before Wisky and the Buckeyes play Friday afternoon, top-seeded Michigan State and Minnesota meet. The Golden Gophers ended a five game drought away from the Land of 10,000 lakes in numbing Northwestern 66-53. Minnesota is catching seven-points and was beaten solidly by the Spartans by 29 and 12 points this year. Will this provide enough incentive for Michigan State to make the Gophers look less than golden or do the Spartans let Minny hang around and possibly get clipped like Kansas? Michigan State is only 1-7 against the number if opponent is seeded seventh or lower.

Illinois finished the year losing three of last five, including last two contests in Big Ten action. The Fighting Illini is 8-5 SU and ATS away from home and will tackle Michigan, whom they have not seen in a day short of two months. The Wolverines used the whipping stick on Iowa on Thursday and are 8-2 ATS since February, including having strung four in a row together. Like Minnesota, the team from Ann Arbor is on the fence and has to keep piling up wins and hope similar teams like Providence and Kansas State continue to fall. Michigan split with Illinois and are playing better than the Illini right now. The Wolverines are 2.5-point dogs.

Penn State is the last bubble-type out of the Big Ten who manhandled Indiana as expected. The Nittany Lions already have one win over third-seeded Purdue and has covered seven straight Big Ten tourney tilts. The Boilermakers were coming strong, however, lost three of last four, making them as big a mystery in this tournament as any remaining squad. Purdue is a seven-point favorite and if you believe in history, the No.3 seed has failed to cover the spread each time since 2004.

Six of the eight teams still left have .500 or better against the spread records, setting up real thought provoking picks for sports bettors.

College Conference Tournament Previews

ACC
March 12-15 –Atlanta

The last few Atlantic Coast Conference Tournaments have lacked the panache of previous events, but by every college basketball individual that follows the game, this year’s tournament should bring it back to the head of the class. While North Carolina is the chalk in the tourney, they are not a sure thing having only covered the spread twice in nine games since February. Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the Tar Heels have the offensive capabilities to take down any team, nevertheless have defensive shortcomings. If North Carolina should stumble, the list of quality choices is better than a Subway sub shop.

Duke can score and defend enough to win, but will its starters be able to go the distance. Wake Forest is as talented as any team in the field, yet their inexperience does show up, particularly if guard Jeff Teague is stifled. Clemson is again creeping to the close, with 5-5 record, though still dangerous with style of play. You can’t teach height and Florida State has the most, as long a Toney Douglas can carry the offense, the Seminoles have shot. Boston College, Maryland and Virginia Tech are all capable of making the semi-finals. As certain announcer loves to say, “This year’s tournament should be awesome baby.”

Fast Fact – ACC underdogs are 36-20-1 ATS run.

Prediction: Play on North Carolina and Wake Forest for finals.
Sleeper: Florida State

Atlantic -10
March 11-15 -Atlantic City

Chalk is normally something you write with, not used for anything else. For sports bettors who follow the Atlantic-10, chalk is not only a writing utensil, but something to be watched very carefully for the profits it yields. In the last six years, the favorite in the A-10 tournament has covered the spread 63 percent of the time. This year Xavier, Dayton and rambunctious Rhode Island have been the class of the league. The Musketeers are turning into a reload program under coach Sean Miller, instead of having to rebuild. The Flyers have not found life as easy without point guard Rob Lowery, gone due to season ending injury. Dayton is 7-6 and 6-7 ATS away from home. The Rams are 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) since Jan. 24 and can play different styles to beat opponents.

Either Temple or St. Joseph’s usually manage to make at least the semi-finals, with the former having the better chance this season. One team to watch is St. Louis, who closed the regular season on 9-2 ATS push. Follow the betting favorites, just be selective.

Fast Fact – A-10 favorites are 41-24 ATS last six tournaments

Prediction: Play on Play on Temple and Rhode Island for finals.
Sleeper: Temple

Big East
March 10-14 – New York City

Without a doubt, the most anticipated tournament this year. The field has been expanded to include every one of the 16 teams, meaning single and double byes for the teams that have been in the Top 25 all season. The last several years a darkhorse has emerged, playing in the finals on fumes with four games in four days, winning the tournament as often as not. Pittsburgh was the club to do so last year in the Big Apple and they won’t have to worry about that this season with their positioning. Connecticut has the largest contingent of players to win in New York, but this has been the case previously, with the Huskies having not been in the finals since 2003.

Top-seeded Louisville is another squad that has enjoyed limited success in these type of tournaments and Marquette isn’t the same without guard Dominic James. Though their record is sensational at 25-6, Villanova receives little acclaim. This is one team very capable of winning it all, especially if Scottie Reynolds scores, since the Wildcats are 10-0 when Reynolds throws in 18 or more points a contest. West Virginia is the other team capable off making some noise.

Fast Fact – No. 5 seeds are 9-2 ATS as underdogs of three points or less

Prediction: Play on Pittsburgh and Villanova for finals
Sleeper: West Virginia (real stretch)

Big Ten
March 12-15 – Indianapolis

If you think Big Ten regular season champion Michigan State is a mortal lock to at least make the finals, slow down Spartan-boy breath. The last time coach Tom Izzo’s squad made a trip to the Big Ten finale, turn of the century fatalists were realizing they didn’t need to hoard products, because the world wasn’t going to end when the odometer turned to 2000. In truth, Michigan State should still have enough to make finals this year and the way the league played out, Indiana and Iowa are about the only teams they won’t face.

Because of the style of play most teams incorporate in this conference, these matchups tend to be very defensive and fairly dull. Wisconsin and Illinois typically have done well, having met twice in the last four years for the title. Best bets for this Midwestern competition would look to be to play on underdogs of more than four points, with how competitive the spots 2-9 are.

Fast Fact – First round underdogs are 14-4 ATS

Prediction: Play on Michigan State and Illinois for finals.
Sleeper: Wisconsin

Big 12
March 11-14 – Oklahoma City

The Big 12 has been about the big three all year, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. The Sooners would seem to have a small edge, having a more bipartisan crowd in their favor, playing in their home state. Having soon to be player of the year Blake Griffin would also be in their favor. The Jayhawks have a more complete team suited to win three games in a row and can play a number of ways besides preferred uptempo. Missouri off their impressive win over the Sooners can not be ignored, with a bothersome defense, what they have to protect against is shooting meltdowns, since they are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS converting less than 40 percent from the field.

One team lurking as upset-maker is Oklahoma State. Oh sure, they are 0-4 against the Big 3, nonetheless, they finished the regular campaign on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS push and should have a great deal of confidence having similar crowd support to OU. You would like to believe Texas could be a factor, yet the Longhorns don’t play 40 minutes of quality basketball often enough.

Fast Fact – Big 12 favorites of six or more points are 6-29 ATS

Prediction: Play on Oklahoma and Kansas for finals
Sleeper: Oklahoma State

Conference -USA
March 11-14 – Memphis

If Memphis doesn’t win the Conference USA tournament again this year on there home court, you might want to start listening to those doomsayers about what is happening to the world. At least from conference perspective, the Tigers are as menacing as ever, making it a tussle for the right to play them. Tulsa and UAB are in the best positions to have the honor of being mauled by the Tigers, since they are the two and three seeds, meaning they can’t meet until the finals.

It is challenging to find a lower tier team to support. Marshall closed 6-3 (6-2 ATS), yet to embrace a club that is 2-13 and 5-9 ATS away from home is heart-stopping. Because the rest of the league is dismal, the best plays are to back underdogs in fairly even matched contests; at least you are receiving points.

C-USA championship game favorites are only 2-4 ATS in last six.

Fast Fact – C-USA underdogs are 37-26 ATS

Prediction: Play on Memphis and Tulsa for the finals
Sleeper: Houston

Mountain West
March 11-14 – Las Vegas

Its Vegas baby, unfortunately that doesn’t guaranteed the Runnin’ Rebels are a lock to be in the finals. UNLV finished fifth the Mountain West, suggesting they won’t have quite the fan support of prior years unless they make it to the title game. Lon Kruger’s club wasn’t bullet-proof at home either. The 15-2 record looks sharp, but the 6-8 ATS record is as vacant as all the hotel rooms.

The sad part is if UNLV is eliminated, they could take this tournament over The Orleans hotel gym and they might not fill up that much smaller seating facility either. That is too bad, as BYU, Utah and New Mexico are all teams worthy of NCAA consideration. The Cougars are the best of the trio, with 9-1 and 9-1 ATS record since Jan .30. BYU has several scoring options and can bang on defense. The Lobos only slipup since the calendar turned to February was at BYU and have shown they can play better on the road this year. The Utes fell to both of the close competitors on the road the last two weeks, yet still have wins over Gonzaga and LSU proving their pedigree.

Fast Fact – Quarterfinal round favorites are 8-16 ATS

Prediction: Play on BYU and Utah for the finals
Sleeper: UNLV

Pac-10
March 11-14 – Los Angeles

Of the tournaments from the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 annually is the least attended. This sort of makes sense, as it is a long trek for fans from the universities of Washington state and Oregon state, especially if it looks like a one and done trip into Los Angeles.

It has been a confusing year trying to figure this league with Washington being the regular season champions. The beauty of what the Huskies did once again proves what can happen with the various dynamics of a squad. Often, there is no way to tell how hard a player will work in the off-season to improve or how a team might come together. It will be intriguing to see how Washington handles the role of the hunted as top-seed.

The results of this tournament have seen the higher seeds cover a 57.4 percent of the time, however that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been plenty of upsets. Since 2002, seven different teams have made the title tilt and Arizona State will have a legitimate opportunity, realistically for the first time. Of course UCLA has to be strongly considered and California, if they can find a way to trick themselves into thinking they are at Berkeley could surprise.

Fast Fact – Top seeds are 6-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or more

Prediction: Play on UCLA and Washington for finals
Sleeper: California

SEC
March 12-15 – Tampa

The SEC has absorbed more shots than a college student on weekend bender. Most analysts agree LSU and Tennessee; the division winners are in the NCAA tournament, however beyond that, the SEC has more bubble teams than a bottle of champagne. South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky have all bludgeoned themselves and to surmise if these teams might do well in the SEC Tournament, this would be like guessing what stocks to buy, if you had any money.

In trying to find teams on the uptick in this conference, the two division winners certainly have to be considered, especially the Vols, who weren’t even in the conversation for the SEC East crown three weeks ago. Another very quiet team hanging around is Auburn. The Tigers have won eight of nine and are 9-0 ATS, suggesting they are treacherous foe and could fly under the radar.

Not sure what the venue change to Tampa is going to do except provide more empty seats televisions producers will try and hide. With the conference really down, LSU and Tennessee losing would be the only real upsets. Of course a fitting final would be last place teams Arkansas and Georgia, based on how the season gone.

Fast Fact – SEC favorites of 6.5 or more points are 20-7 ATS

Prediction: Play on Tennessee and Auburn for the finals.

Sleeper: The whole conference

WAC
March 10-14 – Reno

The Western Athletic Conference was looking a lot like Conference USA until Utah State started to stumble. The Aggies were coasting along at 24-1, nationally ranked and it was all good. The loss at Boise State was not unnerving, but subsequent defeats to St. Mary’s and Nevada have signaled everything is not right for Utah State. For a team to upset the Aggies in the WAC tourney, they must follow the same path others have taken. Defensive intensity to limit Utah State shooting, since when they convert less than 50 percent of attempts, they are far less effective. Additionally, take a page out of their book, take good shots.

Realistically, only Boise State and Nevada seem to have realistic shot to knock Utah State off, with the Wolfpack playing on home floor. Keep a watchful eye on Louisiana Tech since they were 11-5 ATS in league play and 12-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Fast Fact – Favorites with revenge are 2-6 ATS

Prediction: Play on Nevada and Utah State for the finals

Sleeper: Boise State

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.