Will the Evil Genius Fluster Florida?

The SEC championship games returns to its roots so to speak, with this matchup. Florida and Alabama played in the first three Southeastern Conference title tilts starting back in 1992. The uncertainty of those games and what they meant on a larger scale came more into focus later with the birth of the BCS. The 2008 title game has kind of a Final Four feel about it, with the winner of these two tremendous teams moving on to the BCS championship. As opposed to the hoops counterpart, the loser is “relegated” to the Sugar Bowl, instead of the championship game.

Alabama whipped rival Auburn 36-0, doing what they do best, running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide ran the ball 50 times for 4.6 yards per carry and effectively averaged 17 yards per completion. Against the Gators, they must be able to keep the contest at their pace, not the frenetic Florida style. The Crimson Tide controls the ball for over 32 minutes a game and is 6-0 ATS away from home after two or more victories. On defense, Bama is third in the country, allowing 248.5 yards per game because of what they do up front. Also, they disguise coverage’s well, utilizing the zone blitz package that cuts down on the kind of big plays that occur when a blitzing team gets burned. Alabama is 6-0 ATS after allowing nine points or less in last game since Nick Saban became coach.

Florida has the look of national championship material, gator-izing opponents by 39.6 points per game since suffering only defeat to Mississippi. Let’s not joke around; today this is the best team in the country. Every other team in contention for the national championship has identifiable warts, except Florida. There is no faze of the game they are not excelling and would be favored against every team they would face in the national championship.

The Gators have shown a propensity to take down teams that hog the pigskin with a 13-3 ATS mark in road games vs. ball control teams, who have the ball 32 or more possession minutes a game.

2007 Heisman winner Tim Tebow might be picking up the same hardware as last year with a shining performance against the Tide. Tebow is a unique athlete in today’s world, everything he says he backs up. He took responsibility for the Ole Miss loss, off he and the Gators went. He’s led this team to 11-1 and 9-2 ATS record this year and Florida is 12-4 against the number after a win by 17 or more points over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Florida favored by 10-points with a total of 52. Using deduction reasoning, oddmakers are telling us the Gators won 31-21. Thus if Florida is to cover, they would also probably make a good Over bet, especially with home run potential. Conversely, if the Crimson Tide are to cover and pull the upset, they need to make this a 60 minute game, meaning punch Florida in the mouth a few times, get the running game going and see if the Gators can play defense for 30 or more minutes. This would in turn lead to an Under play.

Since 1992, these to schools have met five times in the postseason, compared to four in the regular season. Florida is 5-4 and 3-5-1 ATS and the number two team will be a rare favorite against the top team in the country. Going as far back as 1992, no unbeaten team has been a double digit underdog to a once beaten team after 10 or more games during the regular season.

CBS will have the telecast of what is the biggest game of the year in college to date at 4 Eastern and what might be later looked upon as the real championship game.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.