Oregon and Oklahoma State Mean Points in Holiday Bowl

If you are looking to be entertained, it might make sense to plan Tuesday night watching a college bowl game where points will not be in short supply. Oregon comes in averaging 41.9 points per game and Oklahoma State is right behind them 41.6 points. Both schools offer splendid running games that total up yardage faster than a grocery store bill to feed a family of six and have capable running backs that can go the distance at a moments notice.

Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) may be favored by 2.5-points, but one of the most dangerous offenses in the country this side of Norman will invade San Diego. The Oregon Ducks (9-3, 6-6 ATS) are averaging 45 points per game in last five contests, with a running game totaling 281.6 yards per game during the same period. The Ducks have double-barreled duo in senior Jeremiah Johnson and junior LeGarrette Blount, who combined for 2,100 yards and 28 trips to the end zone. Oregon has covered five of last six as bowl underdogs.

Oklahoma State running proficiency isn’t far behind at 256 yards per game and 5.6 per carry. They utilize the talents of Kendall Hunter, who ran for over 1,500 yards along with a few other backs. Quarterback Zac Robinson is the one who runs the show, being a skilled runner and excellent thrower, good for 2,735 yards with 24 TDs and eight interceptions this season. Oklahoma State’s only fault this season was being in wrong division, matched up against Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, all resulting in losses. The Cowboys off the Sooners loss are 7-2 ATS off a defeat and 4-1 against the number if they permitted 40 or more points.

This marks a unique return for Okie State coach Mike Gundy, who becomes the first person to play and coach in the Holiday Bowl. He’s looking forward to the experience. We’re very excited about heading to San Diego for the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl,” Gundy said. “It was a tremendous experience for me as a player and I’m happy our team will get to enjoy San Diego and the festivities that surround a great bowl game. … We look forward to playing an excellent Oregon team.” Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS when favored by three or less points, but Robinson will be matched against the 108th ranked pass defense in the country.

Oregon’s coach Mike Bellotti knows what to expect, “Both of these teams run the ball really well,” Bellotti said. “But in the final analysis the team that plays the best defense in the game is going to win.” His team will look to exploit Cowboys defense which allowed 38.1 points per game against the six bowl teams they faced this season. Bellotti’s teams are on 10-2 ATS in non-conference action.

Oklahoma State is among your better bowl teams with 12-6 record and sporting outstanding 7-1-1 ATS mark as favorite. The Ducks are 5-3 ATS as dogs and 6-5 ATS under coach Bellotti. Big 12 favorites have failed to cover over 77 percent of the time in bowls against the Pac-10.
In the long history of this bowl, the favorite is 11-17 ATS, winning the last two. More often then not, the OVER has been the correct total, presently on a 5-3 run the last eight matchups. Keep an eye on this tidbit; Pac-10 underdogs have paid up 80 percent of the time in last 20 bowl games.

ESPN has coverage starting at 8 Eastern for this year’s Holiday Bowl.

College Football Game Day Writeups

Is it really possible that Oregon State will be playing in the Rose Bowl and not during the regular season for the first time in 44 years? For the Beavers, the most treacherous of opponents, an in-state rival with hated in their hearts is looking to spoil an improbable journey. Florida and Alabama each have rivalry game tune-ups before the big SEC title game showdown. So much for USC and Notre Dame being a big deal this season, the only stories here are Charley Weis’ continued employment in South Bend or to give or take the 30+ points. Something seems a little fishy about Oklahoma and Oklahoma State line, watch how this plays out Saturday night in Stillwater. All the lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Florida (-16.5, 57.5) at Florida State 3:30E ABC

After igniting The Citadel 70-19, the Florida Gators travel north to Tallahassee for bragging rights between these universities. Florida is on everyone’s “don’t’ play” list, outscoring opponents by 41 points a game since losing to Mississippi in late September. Even coach Urban Meyer is impressed with what he is witnessing. "The chemistry (on this team) borders on phenomenal," Meyer said. "I love these guys. I trust them. I believe in them, and I like watching them work." The versatility of this Florida team is being shown more frequently, as they rushed for 346 yards against what was the SEC’s best defense in South Carolina. On defense, they don’t have the dominating front four like the national champs of two years ago; however they might be more complete. The Gators have forced SEC-best 27 turnovers this season. "We're playing as hard as we can, out of our minds right now," Florida sophomore cornerback Joe Haden said. Florida is 10-3-1 ATS in non-conference action under Meyer.

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College Football Game Writeups

The college football landscape is dotted with landmines this week. Alabama takes its number one ranking to Baton Rouge, with LSU lying in wait to ruin their unblemished record. Texas Tech is second in the BCS standings, but might have an even tougher opponent in Oklahoma State this week. Penn State got passed by in the rankings last week and has what could be their last chance to lose in the regular season traveling to Iowa City. All USC can do is wallop Pac-10 teams and hope those higher than them happen to lose, as they host California this week. In the ACC, anything is possible and Virginia and Wake Forest play in an elimination game. The All lines shown are from Bookmaker.com.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

After last week’s spine-tingling upset of number one Texas, its right back into the Big 12 grinder for Texas Tech. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell had trouble being noticed nationally until last week, playing in a conference stocked with quality throwers. What makes this Texas Tech team better is the little things that go unnoticed. Running back Shannon Woods is an effective runner, but where he helps his team as much if not more is picking up blitzes to keep Harrell upright and give him that split second longer to deliver the pigskin. Click here to continue.

College Football Wagering Answers

Nice job by the Left Coast Connection with two Free Winners on Friday with Nevada and Atlanta Hawks. Greg of the LLC has hit seven straight winners in college football, he has four plays riding today and gives us his best Bet. A pair of plays out of one College Football System that is 26-2, 92.9 percent. We revisit a Top Trend we used earlier this season, which is still 100 percent accurate. Good Luck.

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a road win, when playing on a Saturday. This incredible system is 26-2 ATS (not a typo) 92.9 percent, including 2-0 this season. The qualifying teams are Kentucky and Northwestern.

Free Football Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 13-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

Free Football Selection -3) Greg has hit seven college football games in a row and is using South Carolina as his best play for Saturday.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.

Late Season Betting on Ranked Teams

The other day had a conversation with a close friend and we were talking about the good old days. Among the topics of discussion were our gambling exploits from years ago. We laughed talking about all the cash we made just following certain teams late in the year. It seemed (the years make the memories fuzzy) no matter if we having a bad year, a great year or just ordinary in progress, we always cashed big late in the season.

Tennessee was a team we made a mint on, since they were always peaking at the end of the season and played several weak teams in those days to close the year, often covering the bookie’s number by two touchdowns or more. Florida State in their prime under Bobby Bowden was another, more in their Independent days and the early years of being a member of the ACC.

Their were other gift spots we knew about, like playing against Notre Dame no matter how good they were (that’s been awhile) in the last home game or a number of Georgia/Georgia Tech and South Carolina/ Clemson games when the home team it seemed never covered.

After laughing ourselves silly thinking about how he once gave a guy 54-points and Kansas (if memory serves correct) against Oklahoma, with the Sooners covering 62-7 for a few Ben Franklin’s, our discussion turned to betting on ranked teams late in the season. He believed ranked teams were good at home and bad on the road.

His rationale was as long as a team was of quality to be highly ranked late in the season; they should be a good bet at 21 or fewer points. Any pointspread above 21 the team has to be playing extremely well or the opponent so bad, the favorite can’t help but win and be very close to covering the number.

Ranked teams on the road were dicier, starting with the fact they’re favored about 80 percent of the time. A home underdog can make their season late in the year with an upset. These can be very dangerous opponents, especially ones that have the ability to score points, since they can feed off the momentum of the crowd and often play over their heads. Additionally he noted, the coaches and players of ranked teams on the road are probably still playing for some conference positioning and will get tight if pushed by lesser foe.

All this talked about ranked teams late in the year, led to research to determine answers. Here are the three questions that were formulated to be answered.

1) How do ranked teams perform in the last three games of the regular season?

2) How do ranked teams perform at home?

3) How do ranked teams perform on the road?

The answers were to be determined both straight up and seeing this is tip sheet is information driven for sports bettors, how the teams do against the spread.

The answer to the first question was slightly surprising on a couple of points. Of the 293 games played by ranked teams over the last five years (2003-07) in the last three weeks of the season, the Top 25 teams are 224-69, 76.4 percent. What was mildly surprising was my preconceived notion these schools actually won more frequently, closer to 80 percent. When thinking about it more, the number made more sense, as like anyone; you tend to think about the top end, not the bottom. Any team ranked #18-25, likely has a couple of losses or plays in a weaker conference and is more vulnerable to being defeated.

One aspect that did not catch me off-guard was the spread record of these teams. Of the 293 games, the actual record was 148-135-10 against the spread, a 52.2 percent mark, which would cause bettors to have betting accounting accounts similar to many people’s 401K plans, less than what you started with.

Let’s move along to question two, how do ranked teams play at home. This is where the numbers kind of get weird, not in a bad way, just peculiar. Home teams were 135-39 straight up 77.5 percent, almost the same percentage as the overall number, meaning ranked teams played almost the same home or away late in the year.

My friend was accurate in his belief that the elite teams in the country are a good bet at home with a 95-73-6 ATS record, good for 56.5 percent. Among the leaders carrying the torch for this group is USC at 9-0 and 7-2 ATS, Louisville at 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and Boise State at 4-0 SU and against the spread as home favorites the last five years.

I was somewhat stunned ranked teams were so good on the road at 89-30, 74.7 percent. However, when digging into the spread number, the real truth came out. With rare exception, Top 25 teams when listed as road favorites ended up being 52-62-5 ATS, a rather lousy percentage of 45.6 percent, particularly when you consider these teams won nearly three out of four games. As my pal so accurately described, ranked teams have something to play for and might be more conservative, compared to home team underdogs that can play all out with nary a reason to hold anything back.

In doing the research, two other questions came to mind. What is the outcome when both teams are ranked and does it matter if one team has a higher ranking?

The first question offered a staggering result in my opinion. When two highly ranked squads are facing off late in the year, the presumption is the home team has the edge. From a wagering perspective, the road team might offer more value since the two teams are probably fairly close in talent as most positions, at least that would be the traditional method of thinking. Here, either the more focused or relaxed visitor won 21 of 38 games played and covered the spread an astonishing 60 percent of the time at 21-14-3 ATS.

Taking it one step further, how does a higher ranked team do, no matter where the contest is held? Though most Top 25 ratings of any kind are believed superficial, they do mean a great deal to those seeking to add money to wagering accounts. The higher ranked school is 25-13 overall with an almost matching 24-13-1 against the spread record. That is good for a delectable 64.8 winning percentage. This seems contrary to the previous question, but does point out the differences in the two teams. Place two similar teams by ability on the field, each with the same motivation and willingness to perform at peak performance, the better team is without question the better wager.

In conclusion, a wise old goat like my friend has been through enough battles to understand what happens late in the year. Playing visitors when two teams are in the Top 25 is smarter than a 6th grader and forget Warren Buffet and others trying to figure out unstable stock market, buy higher ranked teams when matched versus other ranked clubs to really make money.

Looking Ahead in Rearview Mirror Betting CFB

Seeing the latest craze in college football by some teams is to change the tempo of the offense and run more plays to keep the defense from changing players to fit situations, I’ll do the same thing this week.

Oklahoma State was expected to be better in 2008, but Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech were all presumed to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 South back in August. Thus far the Cowboys are the only team in college football not to suffer a spread loss at 7-0. You have to wonder if T. Boone Pickens is a betting man (sports’ betting that is), since if he bet his alma mater each game and had “let it ride”, he would be overcoming some of the big financial hits he has taken. It’s becoming more evident coach Mike Gundy can coach and recruit a little. Just asking- If you watched Oklahoma State and USC play on the road last week, whom do you think looked like the better team?

Tulsa is unbeaten and 6-1 ATS and had great second half in covering the spread against Central Florida. They have very good receivers and fascinating way of attacking both on offense and defense. Yet could not help but wonder if they wouldn’t be 6-10 point underdogs to Boise State and TCU on neutral fields, let alone against a top level BCS squad. Big test at Arkansas this week and at Houston on Nov.15.

Minnesota is 7-1 and 6-1 ATS and plays three of final four games at home. The Golden Gophers after a 1-11 campaign caught a scheduling break this season in avoiding Michigan State and Penn State. No doubt Minnesota is much improved, but here is a scary thought. If the Nittany Lions remain unbeaten and Texas or Alabama loses, and Ohio State slips up again, that could mean Minny goes to the Rose Bowl to face possibly face USC. A talented Illinois team was catching 13.5 last year, would the Gophers be on the receiving end of 20?

Though not official yet, Michigan will have 33-year bowl streak broken, still having to play three of last four on the road, including at Ohio State. At 2-6 and 1-7 ATS, the most disconcerting aspect of this Rich Rodriquez coached team is they have not gotten better. Though media-types have continued to say Rodriquez will win in Ann Arbor, watching him and his team on the sidelines is very uncomforting. This isn’t supposed to happen at Michigan. The last Michigan team not to go bowling was the 1974 squad who lost at Ohio State 12-10, ending their perfect 10-0 season, with far fewer bowls back in those days. This won’t have quite the same feel.

Fresno State was supposed to finally win the WAC, but once again the always bold talking Bulldogs are nothing special and causing backer’s lots of cash with 1-6 ATS record. Fresno State’s wins at Rutgers and UCLA are far less impressive today as is the narrow loss at home to Wisconsin. Losing at home to Hawaii is ridiculous and they could hardly have been any luckier in winning at Utah State 30-28 last Saturday as 15-point favorites. Coach Pat Hill has this tough guy persona, but how tough is it to bet against the 105th ranked run defense? Hill reminds me of a golfer who shoots one over par at the hardest course in town and is a 12-handicap at easiest course in the area. Of course all he talks about is his one great round.

Quick notes- What did I say about Pittsburgh last week, NEVER trust a Dave Wannstedt coached-team that is supposed to win.

Just a few of weeks ago it was fun to see the “smart” schools like Vanderbilt and Northwestern doing so well. The Commodores looked like MSNBC poll showing Barack Obama leading the presidential race, with 5-0 record. Three losses later and confronted with Florida and Tennessee at home and at Kentucky and at Wake Forest, the first bowl possibility in 26 years is slipping again. Northwestern not only lost at insipid Indiana, they lost all everything running back Tyrell Sutton.

Florida State is not only 6-1 and 3-2 ATS, they are returning to physical, smarter football.

At the end of September, talked about what a mess the Big East was based on how down the league is this year, it made sense to look at road teams in conference game. Thus far road teams are 6-4 ATS with four outright wins. One aspect not considered was road favorites and they are 1-2 SU and ATS.

After a 5-8-1 start, college football teams off a three exact spread covers are 10-3 ATS the last three weeks. That would mean Arkansas, Florida, Iowa and Louisville are possible play on teams. The opposite would be true for those failing to cover in a trio of tilts. On the season this group is 9-18-1 ATS and Clemson, Iowa State and Kentucky all make this week’s play against watch list.