With the NHL All-Star Weekend in Montreal in the coming days, thought now would be a good time to take stock of what might lie ahead in the coming months. The subjects will be varied and not necessarily in any order, but for those counting, don’t worry we’re just trying to figure out how to win a few hockey wagers.
Who are the Best Teams to Wager On?
The Boston Bruins have been arguably the biggest surprise in the NHL leading the Eastern Conference in points with 71. Boston has had the best offense in the East in scoring 164 goals and has given up the fewest goals as well. Goaltending has been a big reason with Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez splitting time. Both have loads of experience being in their mid-30’s and have been helped immensely having defensemen with speed and skill. What should concern bettors is the premium price now on the head of Boston by linemakers, despite being a league best +15.6 units. Last year the Bruins snuck into the playoffs and this is widely thought of as the maturation process, yet one has to wonder if this team doesn’t have a little Tennessee Titans in them and are not quite ready to be a major player.
San Jose, after its phenomenal 22-4 start, has come back to this solar system, though still leads the Western Conference. The Sharks are still the second best wager in the league at +12.9 units, but have been caught a few more times lately. Their seems to be little reason to believe San Jose won’t keep winning, however as former Jim Mora Sr is being introduced to a whole new generation of fans because of Coors Light commercial asking the question, “Playoffs?”, the Sharks will have to proven themselves when that time arrives. San Jose is pure money at home with 21-3 record.
What are other good home teams to play on?
Besides San Jose, Boston is solid at 17-5, but a sleeper for many is Washington who quietly has put together a very good year and leads the Southeast Division with 63 points. At home, the Capitols are 19-4 and have two wins on home ice over Boston, handing them two of their eight road defeats. Detroit at 16-5 is not a shock; problem with the Red Wings in Hockey Town is absorbing the losses. In spite of winning over 76 percent of games on home ice, they have only manufactured +5.02 units of profit being such heavy favorites. Calgary is back to playing well at home at 16-8 and leading the Northwest Division. One stunner is the Phoenix Coyotes at 15-8, being below .500 otherwise on the straight money line.
What is more important, scoring Power Play goals or stopping them?
As of this writing here are Top 5 teams in each category and their records.
Five Best Power Plays
1) Detroit 31-14
2) Philadelphia 24-21
3) San Jose 33-11
4) Boston 33-13
5) Washington 30-17
Collectively they are 151-76, +43.8 units of profit.
Five Best Penalty Killing Teams
1) Minnesota 23-22
2) N.Y. Rangers 27-20
3) Buffalo 24-22
4) Calgary 27-18
5) San Jose 33-11
This group is 134-91, +12.2 units of profit.
This is not an exact science; however the numbers bear out being able to take advantage of opponent’s mistakes is more critical to success than curing miscues at the top of each category.
Is there an edge to look for after the All-Star break?
Yes, there certainly is. Because the NHL has a heavily weighted schedule towards conference play, opportunities exist. From now until the middle of March, teams will still have games involving the other conference. After that point in time, it is almost exclusively conference action until the end of the regular season. Because of unfamiliarity, certain clubs might just have too much talent for others or just be able to create matchup problems.
The West has dominated inter-conference play with 89-71 record. Teams that have contributed the most are the Sharks are 9-1, Minnesota at 10-3 and Calgary with 6-2 mark. Columbus is very strong at 7-3 against the East and the Red Wings are 8-4.
This doesn’t mean the West has all the fun, though it is real close. Montreal has performed extremely well at 6-2 and the battling Bruins are 7-4. Staying away from the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lighting is a good idea anyway, but it is even truer when they take on the Western Conference, with the Isles 3-8 versus the money line and Tampa Bay 4-8.
Are there any hot teams that might have uprising?
Each season is different, with no way to know specifically, however keep in mind what happened last year. Of the eight teams in position to make the postseason at the All-Star break, seven in each conference did so, showing little movement. That is not to say a team in the eighth position could not move up to fifth or higher with big second half. Pittsburgh would fit as such a team, seeded eight presently, yet only nine points out of first place in the Atlantic Division, if they can get healthy.
What we have seen in the past is “you are what you are” and if you haven’t played very well by the break, chance are you probably won’t in the latter part of the season either and are not a good wager.
The West has more teams that have the potential to break through with the worst team in the conference St. Louis, only nine points behind No.8 Minnesota.
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