Of course the Super Bowl is coming, but let’s take a one day sabbatical before Sunday and sit down and get into college basketball. Of course televised action goes from morning to night and so does your wagering opportunities. Check information on the Big East, A-10, Big Ten, ACC, Mountain West and even a battle for first place in Conference USA, with Memphis not included. Tomorrow is an American institution, however Saturday is all about the orange (Clark Kellogg reference) and sharing the sugar (Steve Lavin reference), make it work for you.
Villanova at Georgetown (-2, 151)12:00E ESPNWhile the jury is still out on what kind of pro prospect
Scottie Reynolds might be, the senior guard has proven to be an exceptional collegiate basketball player. You can count on one hand the number of times Reynolds has tried to force the action this season and his shooting percentage is at a career high, based on basketball IQ and what the opponent is offering. He’s also tougher than a $3 steak which is why Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) is 10-2 ATS in Saturday road games the last three seasons.
It’s actually fairly remarkable Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS) is as good as it is this season. The Hoyas has struck out more the Phillies Ryan Howard when turning to the bench for point production. The cupboard has been bare for Coach John Thompson III, placing a greater burden on his starters to lead the way. If Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe or Chris Wright has an off night (like Wright did in scoring eight points in South Florida loss), especially against the better teams, it is very much like a disconnected cell phone call, everything goes quiet.
Someone for the G-Town has to answer or they fall to 1-9 ATS February home games since 2008.
Georgetown is 1-6 and lamentable 0-7 ATS against Nova at home since 1997.
Xavier at Dayton (-3, 135.5) 12:00E ESPN2The Musketeers (16-6, 14-7 ATS)were not supposed to be as formidable after three A-10 titles, 25 or more wins and two visits to Sweet Sixteen. New coach Chris Mack had to gain the trust of old and new players, however he couldn’t have counted on what guard Jamal Crawford would mean to Xavier, who sits atop the conference leaderboard at 8-1. The transfer not only became a YouTube sensation dunking on LeBron James this past summer, but he is the team’s leading scorer, on a club that brought back just enough veteran talent to keep them in A-10 contention this season. Xavier is 12-2 ATS playing teams with 60-80 percent win percentage since last year.
The team believed capable of unseating Xavier in 2010 was Dayton; however the Flyers have not been clutch at winning time, losing three conference contests by six total points. Dayton (15-6, 10-8 ATS) has been outscored by over 40 points this season in the final five minutes of regulation play, shooting around 35 percent (43% normally). Dayton’s strength also turns out to be one its weaknesses. The Flyers have six players averaging six or more points, but lack a go to scorer at crunch time. They are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.
Dayton is playing into revenge and is 5-1 SU and ATS as home favorite against Xavier.
Wake Forest at Virginia (-3.5, 134.5)12:00E ESPN Full CourtComing into this year’s ACC campaign, one of the teams not presumed to compete for the conference crown was Virginia (14-6, 9-6 ATS). Yet past the quarter point of the league schedule, the Cavaliers are right in the mix. How could this be? It starts with new coach Tony Bennett stressing the little things- free throw shooting, assists to turnovers ratio and playing defense out to 25 feet. The older Virginia players have seen the value of this style and like W’s. The Cavs are 39-22 ATS at home vs. teams making 45 or percent of shots past the halfway point of season.
Wake Forest (15-5, 9-8 ATS) lost by 20 points at Duke and showed their resolve in knocking out North Carolina 82-69 at Chapel Hill in next outing. If senior Ishmael Smith can continue to put up impressive numbers, the Demon Deacons are going to be a fecund club the rest of the way. Al-Farouq Aminu’s game is ever-expanding and he’s unstoppable near the bucket. If freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart can be a touch more consistent shooting, they already know center Chas McFarland will do his job in the paint. Wake has to protect the ball, as they are 25-43 ATS in road games when they commit three to seven more turnovers than opponents.
Virginia is 7-3 and 6-4 ATS at Charlottesville against Demon Deacons.
Wisconsin at Michigan (+1, 116.5) 4:00E CBSNot exactly Game of the Weekend material for the Super Bowl network, but what the heck, Big Ten basketball means eyeballs. Wisconsin’s margin of error without injured Jon Leuer is smaller than Verne Troyer (Mini-Me). After stern matchups with Purdue and Michigan State, the Badgers head the Ann Arbor to build on fine performance over the Spartans. Trevon Hughes has continued to produce, however sophomore Jordan Taylor and Keaton Nankivil has raised his level of play in Leuer’s absence and Wisky is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite or pick.
Too their credit, Michigan (11-11, 10-8 ATS) has been beating oddsmakers expectations since January with 8-2 spread mark, nonetheless they have failed to meet their own beliefs. The Wolverines thought they were NCAA tournament ready after last season, but have danced around .500 most of the season instead. More than anything Michigan players lacked the internal commitment to start the season and have given away apparent wins late in games. Ranking last in the Big Ten in rebounding, the Wolverines are 20-43 ATS historically when they grab four to nine fewer boards per game.
The Badgers (17-5, 12-8 ATS) have taken nine of last 10 meetings with 6-4 ATS mark.
BYU at UNLV (-1, 146.5) 4:00E VERSUS
Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands their roles and plays accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and 8-0 ATS is February.
UNLV coaches and players understand any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signal’s Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level and UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.
BYU is 3-10 and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years.
Michigan State at Illinois (+1.5, 126) 9:00E ESPNMichigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) is in the featured spotlight for this ESPN prime time affair. Coach Tom Izzo must have a lucky rabbit’s foot or something, having won a couple of recent Big Ten road games by a single digit until being bounced by the Badgers 67-49 for their first conference loss. Actually Izzo’s lucky charm is junior Kalin Lucas. The point guard has put the dagger in twice with final seconds’ baskets and been the ring leader in finding teammates in quality comebacks. Lucas quote – “I just think at clutch time, I want to have the ball in my hands.” Unfortunately Lucas is game time decision with a sprained ankle. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick over the last three seasons.
The problem won’t go away by itself and coach Bruce Weber knows it. For Illinois (15-8, 7-13-1 ATS), there is a direct link to leadership and winning. When a Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale or Demetri McCamey assumes the role of leader in any game, the Illini have plenty of fight and either wins or are highly competitive. If this trio becomes a group of shrinking violets, Illinois is doomed for failure. Coach Webber is hoarse from preaching, togetherness, toughness and playing hard, the team just hasn’t taken it to heart and is 7-13-1 ATS this season.
The Spartans are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS at Champaign in last 10, but have won and covered previous two.
Tulsa at UTEP (-5, 133.5)10:00E ESPN2Sole possession of first place in Conference USA is on the line in this late night affair. With Memphis not the dominant team, opportunities exist for others like Tulsa (18-4, 7-11-1 ATS) and UTEP (16-5, 7-10 ATS), who are both 7-1 in league action. The winner of the conference is not guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance; however they improve their case dramatically. The two studs for the Golden Hurricane are seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh and they bailed them out in 73-69 win at Marshall Wednesday night, after trailing the majority of the contest. They will be needed again, however Tulsa is just 2-7-1 ATS on the road.
The Miners have won six straight after knocking off Houston 65-58. UTEP has five players averaging 10 or more points and former Louisville bad boy Derrick Caracter should have a terrific battle with Jordan in the paint. The Miners also have 6’11 Arnett Moultrie to work against the 7’0 Jordan. Both teams score in the 70’s and are above average defensively, thus no visible differences in what should a magical night in El Paso for coach Tony Barbee and his club, who has failed to cover their last six home games.
Tulsa has covered last eight meetings (6-2 SU), including previous five at the Don Haskins Center, walking away victorious three times.
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