Hump Day plays and rapid fire thoughts

Got back on winning track with 2-1 Tuesday, taking recent record to 16-6. This evening let’s look at 80.3 percent system in the Lone Star State on the base paths. The Top Trend in on the ice for the last first round contest of the playoffs and Steve of the Left Coast Connection tries to serve up yet another winner. Good Luck

What I thought today- My God does the Kansas City bullpen stink. The Washington Nationals are 12-10 and are off to their best start in D.C. since they arrived in town and finished up April 13-11 in 2005.

Olympic Committee takes back medal of 2000 Chinese female gymnast for being 14, not 16 as China reported. Underhanded dealings in the Olympics, purely shocking.

DeMarcus Russell could get cut any time by the Oakland Raiders and walk away with three million this year. My sources tell me however he already has a spokesperson job lined up with Rio Suites Hotel in Las Vegas for their Carnival World Buffet.

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 like the White Sox, with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or higher his last three starts and the team has on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. In the previous five years this system is 49-12.

Free Hockey Trend -2) The Washington Capitals are 11-1 revenging a blowout loss of three goals or more this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve of the LCC continues to roll with five straight winners and plugs Cincinnati for a winner tonight.

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Montreal and Washington Game 7 Final

Doesn’t it just figure, even the team with the best record in the NHL this past regular season is having a hard time in the playoffs. The irony is this team is based in Washington, D.C. area, the very place where a great many people have questionable faith about is going on in that location.

The same has to hold true for Capitals fans, wondering how this opening round series has gotten so screwed up to force a seventh and decided game.

The Montreal Canadiens are sort of like the “Tea Party”, upstarts not willing to settle for the status quo and are fighting for change. Their leader is goalie Jaroslav Halak. He’s led a conservative movement that brings back a past of time gone by.

Montreal has picked their spots to score in winning three times in this series and their defense has been more relentless in attacking the Capitals than Glenn Beck and Keith Olbermann combined.

When these types of upsets occur or potentially happen in the playoffs, the netminder is always in the middle. Halak has stopped 90 of Washington’s last 92 shot attempts and the Canadiens penalty kill defense has thwarted the Caps like a state trooper, leaving them with one goal in the net in 30 tries.

Montreal will certainly have confidence if not the oddsmakers support with consecutive upset victories and two wins at the Verizon Center in this series. The Canadiens are +240 money line underdogs with total again at six. Montreal is 6-3 on the road game when the total is six or more this season and believes in their goaltender after he had unfathomable 53 saves in Game 6.

“It’ll be on ESPN Classic tomorrow as one of the greatest goalie performances,” said the Habs Michael Cammalleri who scored twice Monday night. “He was making saves that were just exceptional. I couldn’t have been more impressed.”



Cammalleri and his linemates could care less if Washington is ginormous -290 ML chalk or is 11-1 revenging a three or more goal loss.

“Everybody picked them to win and they’re supposed to win,” Cammalleri said. “The pressure’s on them but at the same time we don’t feel any moral victories. We’re going to go to Washington excited about playing a hockey game and we’re going to play our best game and let the results take care of themselves.”

Washington remains convinced they will solve Halak and the Montreal defense with their barrage of shots. “The dam’s going to break,” Capitals defenseman Joe Corvo said. “He can’t save 60 shots again so we’ll just put as many shots as we can on him and see what happens next game.”

The Caps will make a few minor adjustments, seeking their 12th win in 13 outings after a two or more Under’s. They will believe in their captain Alex Ovechkin, “...It’s always this team being good and we’ll find a way to break it and win it. No panic, nothing.”

The total is the key to Game 7. Washington is 3-0 when the total score has reached six or higher and is 17-5 OVER at home revenging a loss having scored one or fewer goals. (Average total score of seven) Montreal has won all three contests when the number fell beneath six and is 14-6 UNDER away after a home game. (Avg. total of 4.9)

Washington will try to avoid the embarrassment of being the first top seed to lose in the opening round since this playoff format was put in place in 1994.

NHL trio pushes for a Game 7

On Monday night, a trio of NHL teams will try and follow the lead of the Phoenix Coyotes and force a deciding game in their first round series. Buffalo would appear to have the most difficult task, winning on the road, but that is what Phoenix did. Montreal and Nashville will at least be on home ice, needing a victory to push a Game 7, both as non-favorites.

Buffalo at Boston 7:00E NESN

The Sabres are scratching their helmets wondering how they are in this predicament. Buffalo has scored the first goal in all five games against Boston and has been ahead or tied over 70 percent of game minutes yet could be eliminated tonight. Buffalo is still hopeful leading scorer Thimas Vanek can go, giving the team a lift.

“I never said I can’t play,” Vanek said. “I wanted to play the last two, but, obviously, we talked. We have to be realistic about it. And I said before, if (Ruff) doesn’t feel like, if we both feel like I can’t really help the team, then there’s no point of going and taking a spot away from somebody else.”

Off their 4-1 win in Game 5, the Sabres are 14-5 after allowing one goal or less in their previous contest this season. Buffalo is a +125 money line underdog to the Bruins and is 3-11 in road games against meager offensive teams scoring 2.55 or fewer goals a game. They will hope Boston’s 2-7 record at home revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals this season continues.

Washington at Montreal 7:00E VERSUS

Montreal knows they will have a chance in a Game 7 against top-seeded Washington since they have already won twice on the Capitals home ice this series. Getting there could be the issue as the Canadiens have failed to defeat Washington is both home tilts in the opening round.

Montreal is 6-13 at home in the playoffs since its current streak of sellouts began in 2003. “We appreciate and respect our crowd very much,” Habs forward Michael Cammalleri said Sunday after practice. “It’s the reason why it’s so much fun to play for the Montreal Canadiens. You get chills every game when you get on that ice.”

The Canadiens are +175 home underdogs and have 15 wins in 41 tries as +150 to +200 ML dogs.

Washington found a way to keep this series extended, after falling in previous contest 2-1 and is 23-6 revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

“It’s important because it’s an important game,” Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau said. “You just have to be ready as we’re sure the crowd will be ready and they will be ready. It will be an electric atmosphere again. The Caps are 41-13 after permitting two or less goals in next outing.

Chicago at Nashville 9:00E VERSUS

The Predators have been one of the most resilient NHL teams all season and their mettle faces a max test in Game 6.

For all intents, Nashville won in Chicago Saturday. Leading 4-3 with 63 seconds, the Preds were going on the power play and didn’t need to score, just ice the puck for the remainder of the contest and head home for potential series upset.

Instead the Blackhawks scored a shorthanded goal with 13.6 seconds remaining and won in overtime 5-4.

“This game is certainly difficult, the hardest way to lose as possible,” Nashville defenseman Dan Hamhuis said Sunday. “It’s going to take a little bit more to rebound from it. Sometimes when things go really bad, you bounce back even harder and come out with a better effort again.” Nashville is 27-13 revenging a loss.

The Predators are +145 ML home underdogs; however is 8-3 if opposing club scored five or more goals in last encounter. Chicago knows how lucky they were; nevertheless they made their own breaks and have won last nine of 12 as postseason chalk.

NHL Playoff teams try avoid 3-1 deficit

Two road teams and one playing at home look to stay away from having to win final three games of their opening round series. Buffalo and Vancouver both came in as No. 3 seeds from the respective conferences and each are trying to avoid a third defeat to upstart. Montreal was feeling so good after taking Game 1, but its defense has been shredded for 11 goals the last two contests and the Canadiens goal light looks like a flashing blue light from K-Mart. All three clubs have their sights set on evening their series tonight.

Buffalo at Boston 7:00E VERSUS

Sabres coach Lindy Ruff has a simple message for his team. - “We win that game (Game 4), we’re back in our own building with momentum,”

Buffalo needs to turn up the offensive pressure on Boston to get this series back 2-2. Top scorer Thomas Vanek missed the last contest with undisclosed injury and no word has come down if he’s available tonight. Either way the Sabres are not beating the Bruins defensive men in their own end and have to start feeding the middle more. Buffalo is 10-30 this year when they score two or less goals.

Even when Buffalo has put on a few surges on goalie Tuukka Rask, he has stoned them. “We are making mistakes and we have Tuukka making huge saves for us.” said Mark Recchi “We have been in these close games for a long stretch now, and have been playing playoff hockey for over a month.” Since March 27, Rask has permitted 14 goals in 10 games during regulation. Boston has won 11 in a row on home ice against teams from their own division.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the Sabres as +120 money line underdog and they are 12-3 after scoring one goal or less and 12-4 UNDER revenging a road loss versus opponent this season.

Washington at Montreal 7:00E TSN

The old adage of “win, survive, advance” sure sounds good to Montreal right now as it feels like Washington is assaulting them with a barrage of weapons. In best Dennis Leary voice, “Here’s the crazy part”.

The Canadiens have given up 11 goals in last 6+ periods, but haven’t allowed one goal in 14 opportunities against the Capitals down a man in penalty kills. If they had, how much worse would the blood-letting be!

Though the task is monumental, Montreal has to attempt to control neutral ice better and maintain possession of the puck like they did in the opener. Washington has far too many guys that can bury the rubber into the netting. The Canadiens had chances in the first period to claim a lead; they just failed to do so. Montreal is 11-26 at home after a blowout loss by four goals or more; however they are 4-0 revenging a home defeat vs. opponent of three goals or more.

Montreal is +170 ML underdog and faces Caps club that is 8-0 after three straight games with eight or more shots edge on goal.

Vancouver at Los Angeles 10:00E VERSUS

The Canucks would do well to tighten their overall play and stay out of the penalty box, since they are getting killed when down a man. Los Angeles has score 10 times in this series, seven via the power play.

Vancouver has to find a way to contain Jack Johnson and Dew Doughty of the Kings as these young guys have been running the power play from the top expertly. “They’re great on our blue line,” said L.A.’s Michal Handzus who scored two power-play goals set up by the defensemen. “They’re very strong and really creative, (but) they know how to keep it simple, too.”Los Angeles will look to create a 3-1 lead in the series at the Staples Center and they are 22-6 after game where eight or more total goals were scored.

Vancouver is professing not to panic. “We’re confident in ourselves, even after a couple of losses,” said Henrik Sedin, who has three assists. “We realize we just have to execute, because we’ve done it before. The penalty killing has to improve, and the power play has to be more active and more effective. Once we get that done, we’ll be all right.” The Canucks are 16-4 after a loss by two or more goals.

Vancouver is a -120 ML choice with total Ov5 and is 8-3 after their opponent scored five or more goals and 15-5 OVER after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season.

NHL Playoff Preview – Eastern Conference

Normally, there would be a great deal of clamor about a young, though veteran squad that was seeking a second straight Stanley Cup and third consecutive appearance in the finals. However, all is quiet about Pittsburgh on the Eastern Conference front with the season Washington had. The Capitals are the most dominating offensive team in hockey, as they scored 96 more goals than No. 2 seed New Jersey (allowed 42 more) and the second best scoring team was Vancouver, who was a distant 46 goals behind. If defense wins championships, then Washington is the wrong choice in a conference with only three teams with legit chance to play for Stanley Cup. All lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

(1) Washington vs (8) Montreal

How good has Washington been? The Caps are first team in four years to ring up 300 or more goals and have seven snipers that but the puck over the line 20 or more times. Alex Ovechkin is arguably the most dominating offensive player in the game and Mike Green led all NHL defenseman in points. Washington was 30-11 at home, but six of those losses came in overtime. Rejuvenated Jose Theodore has been nearly unbeatable for three months, as his only three losses in 23 starts have come after three periods of play (20-0-3).

Sure Montreal comes in as the eighth seed, performing worse than Kate Gosselin on DWTS with three wins in last 11 outings, but those sweaters are still Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge. The Canadiens might have an edge in speed in their offensive end, but they look like pip-squeaks compared the Washington blue-liners. That would leave Jaroslav Halak to have to stand on his head in net against Capitals onslaught.

These teams split four games, each winning on the other’s frozen pond, but Washington is the top overall choice to win the Cup at +275 and should sweep if focused and win in five if not, being better in all areas against Les Habitants.

3DW Pick- Washington (-565) in four over Montreal (+465)

(2) New Jersey vs (7) Philadelphia

Typically, the second seed would be thrilled their first round opponent had to fight until the 82nd game to make the postseason tournament, however that is not the case with New Jersey. The Devils had a devil of a time, losing five of six times to Philadelphia. New Jersey plays defensive-style, conceding the fewest goals at 2.3 per contest with the remarkable Martin Broduer in front of the cage. Offensively, the Devils are not imposing beyond Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk and they enter the playoffs 22-8 having won three of previous four.

The Flyers are better than what they showed losing eight of 12 (they did win three of final four to sneak in) to gain entry into the playoffs. Philadelphia has components that could lead to upset. Philly is ranked third in the league in power play conversion at 21.5 percent and a respectable 11th on penalty kills. It’s not a coincidence the ’06 Edmonton squad and ’07 Anaheim club were in the finals with Chris Pronger manning the blue line, as he always elevates his play in the postseason. The wild card is third string goalie Brian Boucher, whose been forced to play with others injured. He helped the Flyers make the playoffs, can he lead the upset?

If Philadelphia can light the lamp on man-advantages and curtail New Jersey’s chances, an upset is in the making.

3DW Pick- Philadelphia (+195) in seven over New Jersey (-235)

(3) Buffalo vs (6) Boston

Two teams from the old Adams Division (circa 1974-93) will chase the puck in the third of three first round division matchups. Both Buffalo and Boston had surprising seasons, the Sabres for winning the division with relative ease and the Bruins for scuffling just to make the playoffs after having the most points in the East last season. Watch the total in Buffalo, as these clubs are 8-1 UNDER.

The series is about finding bodies that can produce on the ice. Buffalo has players at less than 100 percent like Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht and Drew Stafford, which means goalie extraordinaire Ryan Miller will play a key role in Buffalo advancement. If Miller can almost singlehandedly take the USA to Olympic gold, he can certainly contain Boston’s feeble attack. The Sabres split four contests with division partner.

Boston has a number of players out and it’s hard to comprehend a team could be in playoffs after finishing 30th in goals scored, nonetheless, here the Bruins are. Boston suffered a 10-game losing streak from the middle of January into February. They had a stretch of scoring more than three goals once in 19 contests, yet managed to win six of last nine games (all losses by one goal). Coach Claude Julien had to do the unthinkable, turn his team’s fortunes over to 22-year-old Tuukka Rask between the pipes. Though Rask was named starter just 39 times, he led the NHL in both goals-against average and save percentage.

3DW Pick- Boston (+145) in six over Buffalo (-165)

(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Ottawa

Whether it’s an 8 vs. 9 in the NCAA basketball tournament or 4 vs. 5 in the NBA or hockey playoffs, the presumption is a tight game or series is the forecast. This however is not the case in this Eastern confrontation. The talented Penguins waddled thru the regular season and flip the switch in mid-April. After losing to Detroit in 2008 Finals, Pittsburgh was less than inspired the next season finishing fourth, the very same position they are in presently, on the way to being champions.

Pittsburgh has Sid Crosby and the defending NHL scoring champ Evgeni Malkin, who was hampered by injuries most of the season. He played in 66 games, but was a factor in maybe half and had an off year. Though Pitt’s often dynamic duo will receive light criticism for indifference during the regular season, no player is more emblematic of his team than enigmatic Marc-Andre Fleury. He’s a latter day Grant Fuhr of the Edmonton glory days with Wayne Gretzky and the gang.

Ottawa is more unstable than some of the people that sit with Dr. Phil. The Senators had 11-game winning streak right before Valentine’s Day and a six-game stretch without a defeat afterwards. Throw those in the blender with a four and two 5-game losing streaks and it’s easy to decipher Ottawa as having multiple personalities for extended periods. A bit of research dug up these facts about the Senators that are very telling about their mental makeup. Ottawa is 21-4 SU when leading after first 20 minutes and is 4-24 SU when trailing.

3DW Pick- Pittsburgh (-275) in five over Ottawa (+235)

Half Season NHL Report

The National Hockey League will soon be taking a break due to the Olympics and with most at or past the halfway point of the season, determined this would be a good time to check in wagering aspects of all the teams. We’ll blend the team thoughts along with betting units for each team to create a perspective.

Eastern Conference

New Jersey (41-12, +17 units) The Devils have rekindled the magic, thanks to a group of hard-working players who rededicated themselves to playing New Jersey hockey and the front office replenished the depth. The Devils come at teams in waves and goalie Martin Brodeur is as sharp as ever. New Jersey’s 15-5 road record speaks to mindset.

Buffalo (28-16, +6.7 units) Buffalo was one of the first teams to adjust to the rule changes a few seasons ago, having faster players that could really work. They never got beyond being a good regular season team, however this season a case could be made presently that net-minder Ryan Miller is the league MVP for team on the rise again. This club is solid wager.

Washington (27-17, +3.2 units) Top scoring team in the league, led by Alex Ovechkin who is playing like a man on a mission. Goaltending is very suspect, which makes them a so-so bet for a top flight squad.

Pittsburgh (28-19, -0.7 units) The defending Stanley Cup champions have not been known for big first half efforts since they became elite team. They are burdened with inflated money lines, making each lost costly and they will go thru the motions for a stretch of games. They were four seed last year and won it all, will likely settle in same area and look to save energy for playoff run.

Montreal (22-25, -1.9 units) Fans of the Canadiens yearn for the days of the up and down the ice high-flyers. This team is in the bottom 15 percent of goals scored per game and goalies Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price essentially have to stand on their heads most night to give Montreal a chance.

Florida (18-27, -2.9 units) No name team that hasn’t make the postseason since 2000. The only reason they are a halfway decent wager is because they are almost .500 on the road, receiving heavy numbers from oddsmakers.

N.Y. Islanders (19-27, -3.5 units) The Eastern Conference is not stuffed with many good hockey teams, which is why the Isles still have a opportunity at the playoffs. To have any chance, the Islanders have to improve -26 goal differential.

Ottawa (22-24, -4.9 units) The Senators have hung in their despite losing their best scorer from last season and crummy goaltending. Credit coach Cory Clouston for keeping this afloat. Watch carefully however, this team could go south with more holes than Dunkin Donuts.
Atlanta (19-25,-5.9 units) Nothing like a nine-game losing streak to ruin what was shaping up to be a good first half of the season the Thrashers. It’s hard to tell what is worse right now, the defense or the goaltending.

N.Y. Rangers (22-23, -6.1 units) Think the Rangers have trouble scoring? Since Nov. 24, the Blueshirts have scored more than three goals three times (22 games). If Marian Gaborik were to get injured, the Rangers would likely be on a two goals max limit. Doesn’t goalie Henrik Lundqvist really deserve this?

Philadelphia (22-22, -6.3 units) Easily the most disappointing team in the East. Continual non-efforts cost John Stevens his coaching job and things haven’t improved much. Talented squad mired in mediocrity makes this a “stay away” from wager unless they collectively decide to play.

Boston (22-22, -7.3 units) If the Bruins had a consistent attack to light the lamp, they would be a super wager, since defensively they are among the best. For the most part they just pepper the net with mediocre shot attempts that high school goalie could stop and waste defensive efforts most nights, making them unsafe bet.

Tampa Bay (17-27, -7.9 units) Lousy record doesn’t tell the whole story. The Lightning is 2-10 in OT, including unlucky 0-6 in shootouts. If Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis start playing up to capabilities, this becomes dangerous play on team in hunt for playoff berth.

Toronto (15-31, -16.1 units) The Maple Leafs needed eight games to register initial victory and five more contests to reach two wins. Who has the league’s worst penalty killing outfit and allows the most goals, you don’t have to read the Hockey News to figure that out.

Carolina (13-31, -16.5 units) Did this team really win the Stanley Cup three and half years ago and make the East Finals last season! There had been talk this team was running on fumes last year, turns out to be true.

Western Conference

Nashville (27-19, +10 units) The biggest surprise for hockey bettors is the play of the Predators. Nashville doesn’t score a lot of goals, however receives contributions from a smorgasbord of players. Back-stops Pekka Rinne and Dan Ellis are like a dependable restaurant, good every time and there is no apparent reason why Nashville can’t keep winning and building bankrolls.

Colorado (26-21, +8.7 units) First year coach Joe Sacco deserves all the credit for molding this young squad into cohesive unit, with most experts seeing them in the Northwest Division basement by now. Not certain the youngsters can hold it together for the second half, more likely a play on-play against team depending on the streak.

Chicago (31-15, +7.5 units) Blackhawks fans can hardly believe their eyes; they have one of the best teams in the NHL after years of spendthrift ways. Chicago has exciting young talented snipers, a stingy defense and the best penalty kill unit in the game. Stanley Cup contender without injuries.

Phoenix (26-20, +7.0 units) Let’s get this straight, this team was in bankruptcy court, hired their present coach one week before the season started, while presumably headed for relocation and only four teams have more points than the Coyotes! Now it makes sense. If Shane Doan can start playing as well as netminder Ilya Bryzgalov, this might be another Miracle on Ice.

Los Angeles (25-21, +3.7 units) The Kings have suffered key injuries to some of its veteran players and still produced a winning record. With these players close to 100 percent, Los Angeles could match their early season success the rest of the way.

Vancouver (27-19, +3.3 units) The Olympics are in Vancouver, which could ruin a good season for the Canucks. Starting at the end of this month, Vancouver has to play eight road games before the break, after the Olympics, six more road games for a total of FOURTEEN straight games away from home. They are 9-11 on the road thus far.

San Jose (29-17, +1.8 units) From talent perspective, the best team in the West and probably the NHL. The problem is the Sharks are boring to bet. Heavy money lines mean soft wins and losses are like beaten eaten by sharks. Similar to New York Yankees, play on when in hot streak to show a profit before the losses hit.

Minnesota (23-23, +1.2 units) Minnesota’s 3-9 start really put them behind the curve and they have rebounded nicely to be .500. Distinct wagering qualities about the Wild - 15-7 at home and 8-16 on the road.

Calgary (26-20, -0.5 units) Jarome Iginla leads two good scoring lines for Calgary who has been somewhat forgotten in the Northwest Division with the play of Colorado. Miikka Kiprusoff is having his best year in net since the lockout and the Flames should be a consistent team in the second half.

Anaheim (20-26, -5.9 units) Too many personnel losses on the blue line have robbed this team of what used to be a reliable defense. The goaltending has been below average, complicating the situation. Even the ability to score is no help from a team that was this close to being in the Stanley Cup Finals last June.

Detroit (23-21, -6.9 units) Perhaps no team has been bitten by the injury bug to its most important players than the Red Wings. If most everyone can come back healthy by March, Detroit suddenly becomes a club nobody wants to face and could string a number of wins together at a fairer value for bettors.

Dallas (19-26, -7.9 units) Dallas is ordinary at best, picking up points in overtime losses, which only helps on the puck line at +1.5. Nothing points to rally or slipping further into the abyss, just continued triviality.

St. Louis (18-26, -8.9 units) It looks like the Blues second half surge from a season ago was a mirage and coach Andy Murray was recently jettisoned. With one of the poorer offenses around, this club is like a bad stock, dump it.

Edmonton (16-28, -11.2 units) What’s the best same to sum up Oilers? Inferior at home with 9-14 mark and rotten on the road with 7-14 record. Oh yea, one more thing, one of the worst defenses in the NHL. That about sums up Edmonton.

Columbus (18-29, -13.5 units) Columbus made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season and has followed up that joyous occasion by stinking up the joint at almost every turn. Even the home ice has yellow tint.

Penguins and Blackhawks favored as closers

Two series underdogs did what most thought would formidable challenge to accomplish, win Game 5 on the road of conference semi-finals to take series lead. Now Pittsburgh and Chicago are poised with one more win, to advance to respective conference finals and still be very much alive for the Stanley Cup. Both teams will have home ice advantage with throaty fans looking to cement one more win.

For Pittsburgh fans, this is getting to be old hat. Though the players and uniform styles change, the Penguins know how to beat Washington. Pittsburgh will be looking for fourth series come from behind win in 17 years against the Capitals in Game 6. Pittsburgh punched across overtime goal in last contest and are 16-6 following a victory.

For the most part, the best Pens players have been at their best, with Evgeni Malkin having two goals and three assists and Sidney Crosby, five goals and three assists. Pittsburgh players and coaches realized that fear can be a great motivator.

“When you get down 2-0, that fear of not winning and not moving on is there,” coach Penguins coach Dan Bylsma said Sunday. “We got the desperation in our game we needed and we’ve put ourselves in a situation to move on. The guys in that (dressing) room know exactly what’s at stake and what’s in front of us for Game 6. We expect a team that’s going to be real desperate … a team that’s good, that’s dangerous, that’s going to be giving everything they’ve got.”

Washington was down 3-1 to New York Rangers in last series and found a way to win and they need to pull out another miracle to survive and their leader believes it’s possible.

Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has seven of Washington’s 15 goals in the series and says this about Game 6.

“Next game is going to be different,” Ovechkin said. “It’s not over yet. If somebody thinks it’s over, it’s not over. … We’re going to come back here (to Washington) again, Game 7.”

Washington is 16-4 revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals this season and is 7-1 in road games after three or more consecutive losses.

DiamondSportsbook.com has made Pittsburgh -180 money line favorites to close out the series with total Ov5.5. The Penguins are 16-4 as playoff favorites and 11-2 OVER after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Washington has lost four of last five as postseason underdogs and is 7-3-1 OVER as dogs.

In Chicago, the Blackhawks have moved within one win game of their first conference finals appearance since 1995 after handling Vancouver 4-2 in Game 5. Chicago took advantage of foolish Canucks penalty in the third period with the score tied at 2-2 and Dave Bolland scored the go-ahead goal.

Hawks captain Jonathan Toews said this about Game 6. “We don’t want to get satisfied at all. We’ve got a huge opportunity and we’ve got to take advantage of it.”

The Hawks have won 13 of last 18 and are 5-1 in most recent encounters at the United Center.
Vancouver has to avoid taking unnecessary penalties and turn up the pressure on offense. In the last game, they total only 21 shots, including 10 the first 40 minutes. “There’s no doubt in my mind that we can play better,” Canucks coach Alain Vigneault said. “There’s a lot of room for improvement in our case.”

The Canucks are 12-3 in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of two goals or more since the 2006-07 season and 5-0 the last two years. They are +155 money line underdogs with total listed at Ov5. Vancouver is 8-1 OVER when facing elimination in a playoff series and 9-2 in a road game when the total is five or less.

Chicago is 10-1 as -145 to -200 money line home favorites and is 12-4 UNDER in home games after a win by two goals or more this season.

The intense Game 6 action in Pittsburgh starts at 7 Eastern and 9 Eastern in Chicago. It promises to be quite a night of hockey.

NHL Playoff Preview – Conference Semi-finals

With one series already started, the other three conference semi-finals will begin this weekend. The amazing Anaheim Ducks will look to play spoiler for a second consecutive series, after knocking off top-seeded San Jose. In the East, No.1 Boston goes up against a cagey Carolina club who won a game seven in New Jersey. Washington came back from 3-1 deficit to ruin the Rangers postseason plans and faces Pittsburgh who is trying to get back to Stanley Cup Finals.

(8)Anaheim vs (2) Detroit

The Anaheim Ducks present a ticklish road block for Detroit, whose path to the Finals has been cleared in part with San Jose dismissed. Though Anaheim doesn’t have as many talented performers from the team that won the Cup two years ago, they still have a solid core of performers, well acquainted with the type of mental toughness needed to play hockey in May and June. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer are on the top of their game at present and the rest of the Ducks defensemen are likely the strongest group of those remaining. Goalie Jonas Hiller had Sharks players talking to themselves, with .957 save percentage and two shutouts.

Detroit has more depth and talent and can take stranglehold on this series by jumping on the Ducks. Teams off big upsets will often not be able to sustain momentum against new opponent. What makes the Red Wings so difficult is points come from everywhere. They had 11 different players register three or more points against Columbus. Detroit has no problem mixing it up with Anaheim, but takes far fewer penalties, which should give them edge throughout with potent power play.

Though Anaheim will be awfully physical with Detroit, they tend to take too many dumb penalties and the Red Wings do exceptional job screening goaltenders, ask Columbus net-minder Steve Mason. With too much talent and smarts, Detroit is 21-6 as playoff favorites and advance to West Finals.

Pick- Detroit (-320) in five

(1)Boston vs (6) Carolina

This time of year, rest is believed to be a good thing, taking a mental break and let tired bodies recover. However, how much rest is too much when you have nine days between games like Boston? What the Bruins have to watch for is Carolina carrying momentum into series after winning last two games to upset New Jersey and advance. Boston has a plethora of scorers, going four lines deep, with goal scorers. Goalie Tim Thomas is Vezina finalist and Zdeno Chara leads a sturdy group of defensemen. The Bruins are 31-12 on home ice and have been particularly effective late in the season, winning 10 of last 11.

Carolina is a treacherous opponent for Boston and likely anybody in the East. The Hurricanes have won 13 of last 18 to blow into the second round and have piping-hot goaltender in Cam Ward. He should have a great deal of confidence after staring down future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur and downing the Devils. Carolina has Eric Staal who is still a force and Erik Cole might be due to break out after going scoreless against New Jersey. The Hurricanes come into series 9-3 against offensive teams scoring three goals a game in the half of the season.

Two dynamics really standout in this series. How quickly does Boston find its legs against a real opponent, as an injured Montreal team proved to be nothing more than hard practices? If the Bruins lack focus from the get-go, Carolina could catch them off guard. The Hurricanes lost all four games to Boston this season and have dropped five in a row dating back to last year. Will they be able to shake the confidence of Bruins who are not battle-tested in playoff action like they are? Carolina will have no real fear heading to Bean-town having won 20 of last 28 games there.

Pick- Boston (-240) in seven

(2)Washington vs (4) Pittsburgh

The NHL bosses couldn’t have asked for a better set-up to build the drama of the Stanley Cup playoffs than this matchup. This will be the first of what could be several postseason meetings between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. What about the undercard, with Ovechkin facing off against regular season scoring champ Evgeni Malkin?

If that isn’t enough to bring the circus to town, what about the goaltender matchup? Rookie Simeon Varlamov is 21-years old and entered the playoffs in net in Game 2, which turned out to be a gutsy call by Washington coach Bruce Boudreau. Varlamov did his job, however the Penguins snipers are much better sharp-shooters than what the Rangers had. The Capitals were able to comeback against New York when Alexander Semin became a factor. For the series, he scored five times and totaled eight points. Washington starts this best of seven 37-16 as home favorites.

Pittsburgh has responded to coach Dan Bylsma, who lost the interim tag this week. Besides his collection of young, but veteran players, he has goalie Marc-Andre Fleury who is back to playing like he did at the end of last season. The Pens won’t be intimidated by setting, having won six of last seven as +150 or less money line road underdogs.

This series has everything imaginable and how the stars focus on their own team as opposed to the opponent will be critical. Washington won three of four this year; nonetheless the Penguins could start swiftly having emerged victorious five of six in Washington.

Pick- Pittsburgh (-105) in seven

Interview with a Hot Handicapper

Rocky Atkinson, the Rocketman, is a professional handicapper who has been around the block. He knows the ins and outs of the game and is having a year most handicappers and sports bettors would only dream of. It would take up pages of space to list all the accomplishments of the Rocketman and would suggest viewing his website for detail at RocketmanSports.com. As Rocky put it, he may be “old school”, but sports bettors know, winning never gets old.

Doug Upstone: Rocky, you are having a monster year, after many years of success. What are you doing differently then in the past?

Rocketman: I haven’t changed a whole lot, if things don’t do well for a certain season or sport I tinker, overall still doing about the same thing.

DU: When you say you tinker, what do you tinker with?

RA: Let’s take the NHL for example; this has been my best year in the NHL EVER, in any sport, by units won. I took an idea from Major League baseball and added it to my NHL handicapping. It’s really worked out; I’m up +137.7 units right now.

DU: I checked around and see you leading in the NHL at every sports monitor by a large margin, awesome job. While on the topic of hockey, the NHL has gone to the conference semi-finals, what thoughts do you have on the four series about to commence?

RA: In the Western Conference, Vancouver is extremely hot right now. Vancouver swept St Louis four games to none in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Vancouver has now won seven games in a row heading into Round 2 against Chicago. Vancouver has had a ton of rest as they haven't played in nine days. Is that good or bad for them? I'm thinking good in this case. Vancouver has won eight of the last 12 meetings with Chicago the past three years and 15 of the last 22 in Vancouver since 1996. I feel like Vancouver gets the job done in this series but it won't be easy.

Anaheim is coming off an incredible series against San Jose as they ousted the #1 seed in the West in six games. Detroit swept a pesky Columbus team, winning the first three games by three or more goals. I'm expecting a letdown from Anaheim here in this series and Detroit definitely has the better team and I feel is now the team to beat this year. Detroit is 24-7-2 at home vs Anaheim since 1996 giving them a huge edge there. Detroit is playing with seven days rest while Anaheim is playing with three. Detroit should get the job done easy here in this series, but the price is too high.

DU: What about the Eastern Conference?

RA: It took Carolina all seven games to beat New Jersey, but they got the job done. Carolina is a team that seems to step it up in the big games. They are 8-3 in the second round games since 1996, while Boston is only 2-4 in the same time frame in conference semis. Boston swept their series against Montreal beating them four games to none. Boston has won the past five meetings against Carolina; however Carolina is 19-8-2 at Boston since 1996. Over the past three years, this series is tied at six wins each. I'm going to lean to Carolina in this series to pull the upset. You will be getting good price in this one.

In the other series, I'm looking for Pittsburgh to upset Washington. The Rangers took Washington all the way to a Game 7 in their series while Pittsburgh got by the Flyers in six games. Washington had to win three in a row to escape elimination. Pittsburgh has won eight of the last 12 meetings in this series including a very nice 5-1 record in Washington the past three years.

DU: Great info, mentioned correlation you’ve made between baseball and hockey, could you explain further?

RA: What I do in those two sports is I’ve developed power ratings; I call them The Rocketman Line. I do this for each sport. I take my lines and compare them to Las Vegas line and when I have a differential that meets my criteria, I look deeper into that game.

DU: In talking about baseball, I know you are off to sensational start in that sport also, what are some of your keys to beating baseball and getting through the daily grind, since baseball has 15 games, five of the seven days of the week for the most part.

RA: The one thing I do in baseball and in every other sport actually, that differs me from other handicappers, is they think they have to have something to put out and sell. Most will put out a ton of plays; the fact is if you don’t have anything on the shelf, people surely can’t buy it. I try not to worry about that. I feel that proper money management is a huge ingredient to the overall winning recipe. I don’t play a game because it’s on TV, just because its Monday Night football or the playoffs. I don’t force a play that isn’t there; I simply pass and wait for something better that comes along the following day. In baseball, I’ve only has 18 plays for entire season. I’m 14-4, 78 percent and my top Major League baseball plays are 8-0, those are my four and five unit plays. In fact, I just checked Sports Monitor standings and I’m No. 1 there.

DU: Beautiful. I saw on your website, you have a line that says –Stop Gambling, Start Investing- explain what you mean by that.

RA: I give out plays, but I also try and teach people about proper investing. A gambler and I used to do this, will play every NFL game on Sunday. You are definitely going to play the Monday Night football game, trying to double down to win or try and get your losses back. That’s not smart; you have to be like more of an investor. If I release a play, bet that play for the exact amount of units I give out, don’t bet with your heart, don’t bet on all the TV games. Stay with the investment. Try one of my packages and in the long term, you will beat the man.

DU: I see you cover seven different sports, where do you find the time?

RA: (Chuckle) That’s where the Rocketman Line comes in. I look at every single game on the board each day. I start handicapping over night and often don’t finish till about lunch time the following day, except for on the weekends of course. I put in many, many hours, I’m an old-school guy, I do most of my work on paper. I update my power ratings each day, that’s where I start and I go from there.

DU: Many handicappers have bad reputations with the public and deservedly so, but you have always stayed above the fray. I understand you are involved with Relay for Life, tell me about your involvement?

RA: I started with Relay for Life about five years ago; it is with the American Cancer Society. We start at 7:00 PM on Friday night and we go till 7:00 AM on Saturday morning. We have different teams to raise money for the Cancer Society at a park here in South Carolina. The money is used for research and to help those who are in need.

My team is from my church and the idea is to have one person from your team on the track the entire 12 hours doing a lap. Last year our county raised $157,000.00. I’m a sponsor and try to help out as much as I can. The first lap of event is done by cancer survivors, it’s called the Survivor lap and they let go of doves. It’s really a nice cause to be a part of.

DU: I can tell by your voice, you are passionate about it as well.

RA: A couple of years ago, my wife’s first cousin’s child, contracted a very rare disease, she was two or three when she was diagnosed. She had to go to St. Jude’s in Memphis, TN and have operation to have part of both of her kidney’s taken out. She is in remission and doing well. It is a joy to see her leading the pace lap.

DU: Wow that is great and very inspiring. It’s nice to tell people about the human side of handicappers. Too often the story is all the bad news.

RA: Very true.

DU: In summation, what piece of advice would you have the sports bettor looking to improve?

RA: Definitely work on money management. I’ve been on fire, yet I have some members who say, “Hey man, I need some help! I’ve lost” even though I killed it with the plays they bought. They start adding plays of their own or other people. Stay with a money management system; don’t play games just to play them. A lot of people start doing what is called recreational betting, that’s where they get into trouble. Like I said, stop gambling and start investing. You don’t have to play every day.

DU: Great advice Rocky and continued success to you for the rest of the year.

RA: Thanks Doug, it’s been a pleasure.

Know all your Betting Terms

Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary is one of the handiest tools to have if you write stories for a living. Within its confines are words none of us have heard of along with many that are very familiar, which we use every day. Over the last week, the dictionary has come in quite handy to describe several situations that have made life better or worse for the sports bettor.

Choke (noun) –If you happened to make series bets or individual game wagers on San Jose or Washington in hockey, you are gagging as much as the teams you placed them on. The Sharks in particular are appalling, being well known for postseason failures, which are further enhanced by having the best record during the regular season in 2008-09. Washington was supposed to be offensive juggernaut finishing third in the NHL in scoring. Thus far the mighty Caps have four goals in two games.

Elimination (n) –Calgary, Montreal, St. Louis, Columbus and the aforementioned other two NHL teams are on the brink, without a win the Stanley Cup playoffs. Less than 13 percent of the time, teams down 0-2 have come back to win series this time of year. Only twice in NHL history has a team comeback to win a series down 3-0, the last time was 33 years ago.

Opportunistic (adjective) – The Florida Marlins have set blistering pace coming out of the gate the Kentucky Derby champion would be proud of. The Marlins have four come from behind wins in first dozen played, including three in the ninth inning to tie the game or go ahead, which they eventually won. For backers of Florida, another word comes to mind in what appeared to be glum betting situations, euphoria.

Illusion (n) – As of today, Toronto, Seattle, Kansas City and Florida (to a lesser degree) are all in first place. If one could make such a wager, it would not be a great idea to bet them to be there on May 20.

Pinnacle (n) – The San Diego Padres are either right with or ahead of the Marlins for the biggest surprises in baseball to start the season. The Padres have been the second best in baseball at +7.7 units of profit; however NOBODY expects them to remain anywhere close to where they are as the season continues. They are 10th in runs allowed thanks to the entire pitching staff throwing unbelievably. Nevertheless, beyond Jake Peavy and Chris Young, the starting staff in more unknown than the cast of “Big Bang Theory”. Heath Bell has been terrific as closer, but will he be able to stay at same apex later in the season? Even the Padres radio announcers have said David Eckstein is the team MVP to start the year. That’s not good!

Luscious (adj)- Watching the Cleveland Indians this spring, it was obvious they were going to hit and score a voluminous number of runs. They hung crooked numbers on the Yankees (22) and are among the highest scoring teams early, with 9-3-1 Over record. The Tribe could be top totals play because the pitching staff looks like they can match the offense run for run.

Miscalculation- (n) The New York Yankees ownership spent 1.5 billion dollar to replicate the old Yankees Stadium visually when you walked towards your seat. They tried to gouge the public with prices and have received a fair amount of backlash. By all accounts the park is a sight to behold, but one thing the management didn’t count on was the configuration being inadequate. Granted, the Bronx Bombers and Cleveland have bountiful long ball hitters, but 20 home runs in four-game series, all of the sudden this might have been The House Ruth REALLY wanted to build. Exactly 70 percent left the yard to right field, which is the prevailing wind off the nearby Harlem River and the new joint is not equipped to curtail it.

The other problem is high priced free agents CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, along with late signee Andy Pettitte could have gone to Colorado, Philadelphia or Texas if they wanted to carry around ERA of 5. It’s early, but it is worth watching.

Need a Profile for Winning NHL Wagers?

All of us have heard endlessly that defense wins championships, which is fine if you are betting in the postseason of a particular sport or the final game or series of games. However, the vast majority of action occurs during the regular season in any every sport, giving us countless more chances to win. With the NHL on the backside of their regular season, decided to see what characteristics one could find in determining winning hockey wagers.

Other than in Canada, the vast majority of people are now betting the money line in the NHL, based on its simplicity of having winners and losers, without a puck line (spread) to deal with. Here is the list of the Top 5 money-making teams in the NHL at this given moment with their true won/loss records.

1) Boston 38-14 +19 units
2) San Jose 36-12 +13.9 units
3) Washington 33-19 +10 units
4) New Jersey 32-19 +9.7 units
5) Calgary 30-20 +5.7 units

It is not a coincidence that each of these five teams leads their respective divisions. The only team missing is Detroit, who should creep back up in this list; however, they are like the New York Yankees, with bloated numbers placed on them. When the Red Wings lose as -200 to -300 favorites, it takes a toll trying to recoup those losses.

What do these teams do that separates them from the pack to win games and beat betting lines, they score goals. Fine, it’s not solving the current financial crisis; nonetheless it opens the door to potential wagering wealth. Here are the top scoring teams in the NHL.

1) Detroit
2) Boston
3) Washington
4) San Jose
5) Chicago

If you score on a consistent basis, your chances of winning are significantly increased. I know this sounds like Fox’s Tim McCarver in stating the obvious, but too often we can become overindulged in trying to find every edge imaginable, we lose sight of the obvious. Noted baseball expert and historian Bill James, probably said it best, “The idea of team sports is to score more than the other team.” Detroit making this group is not a surprise and Chicago actually has a winning record for the first time in years (28-21), because, they can score.

Next I took a gander at the importance of fast starts in a game and looked at from two angles. The first part of this study was to understand importance of scoring first and secondly, what scoring goals in the first period meant.

Scoring First
1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Vancouver
4) Boston
5) Philadelphia

In the 2008-09 campaign, seeing three of the top four teams here is not earth-shattering, as they pounce on opponents and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes. Philadelphia is close to showing a profit, with Vancouver the only anomaly. New Jersey and Washington are one goal behind Philadelphia, thus right in the mix.

Goals Scored 1st Period

1) San Jose
2) Chicago
3) Washington
4) Detroit
5) Boston

Very similar to above, as the more talented squads are able to secure an early lead and force the competition to play catch-up, which has been shown this season, the opposing teams don’t do very well.

The next category was team’s abilities to either close out games or come from behind which either did or could lead to victory. Deeper, more talented clubs have the resources to wear down inferior opposition and win presumably close games. Here are the best teams for goals scored in the 3rd period.

1) Boston
2) Washington
3) Detroit
4) Atlanta
5) Calgary

By now, the picture should start to look like a Vizio flat panel HDTV.

To wrap up our study of profiling winning bets in the NHL, we addressed the segment of power play goals. Since the strike season, a greater emphasis has been placed on special teams, meaning those that can either score with man advantage situations or are skilled as penalty killers, have a distinct edge in most games. Staying with our theme of scoring goals, hockey teams that can put the pressure on in the offensive zone have a real advantage. This can lead to opposing teams being out of position, playing scared, trying to not make a miscue. This can lead to goals or taking penalties, which leads to more scoring chances for these offensive-minded clubs. Here are the top 5 teams in power play goals scored this year.

1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Washington
4) St. Louis
5) Boston

Living in a very complicated world, sometimes taking the easiest route can be the most profitable.