I'm back and so is Game 4 for NBA Finals

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

Orlando Magic have to cope with Kobe

The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations.

If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.

The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.

That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at DiamondSportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.

You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.

Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.

The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.

Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.

Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.

The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.

Magic tied, but will they recover mentally?

People who don’t watch sports will never get it. There are those moments in sports that transcend meaning; it goes to a different level, otherworldly. LeBron James gave the city of Cleveland something it hasn’t had much of, hope. By now you have seen James’ shot a couple of hundred times and it is as marvelous and unbelievable as was live the first time. No nickname has really stuck with LeBron, be in King James and a few others, but on the number he’s picked for himself (23), the “Chosen One” might well be the best of all.

His Game 2 winning shot will take on greater meaning if Cleveland can find a way to at least win the Eastern Conference, which is far less a sure thing than it was Wednesday night before the series opener.

I’ve been scratching my head wondering why everyone in Orlando is blaming themselves for James making shot. Coach Stan Van Gundy took the blame, but never said exactly why. Mickael Pietrus joined in the blame-game and was equally unclear what he did wrong, since he wasn’t assigned to guard James in the first place. If anybody is to be blamed it’s Hedu Turkoglu, not for not guarding LeBron tighter, since he and teammates has already taken away dunk opportunity, but for not taking more time off the clock with what SEEMED like game winning shot with a second to go.

Sometimes you can do everything right and the ball just goes in the cylinder.

The Orlando bench and players were visibly shaken, but this isn’t their first jolt in the playoffs. Coach Van Gundy only needs to remind his squad; they absorbed haymakers from Andre Iguodala and Ray Allen and still came out on top in two prior series. The Magic have proven the Cavaliers are not superior to them by any stretch and Turkoglu was defiant after heart-breaking loss.

"They make a last-second shot and seeing them celebrating, it means we are in their heads," he said. "I guarantee it's going to be a ballgame difference when we go back to Orlando in front of our home-court fans." The Magic return home 12-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games.

The last seven minutes of Game 2, likely set the table for this contest and rest assured neither Mickey nor Minny Mouse will want any part of this action in downtown Orlando. In the closing minutes, it looked like RAW from the WWE, with bodies flying everywhere, accept this wasn’t scripted. With the intensity rising minute by minute, the Magic are 16-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and they will be laying in wait.

Cleveland is on 11-2-1 ATS run, however are just 2-10 ATS vs. teams having won 70 percent or more of their games. The Cavaliers are finding out what TNT analyst Doug Collins said to be true about Orlando, “Leads of 15 points for or against Orlando don’t mean much, with how they shoot the three.” Cleveland’s defense has been exposed when they can’t pack it in, with the Magic having quickness edges at different spots in open space.

When the series began, it did not appear Orlando would be a favorite, but after two impressive contests, DiamondSportsbook.com has them as 1.5-point choice with total of 189.5. Based on the past, this could work in Cleveland’s favor, since they are 22-9 ATS as road underdogs of less than five points. Conversely, the Magic have been not be magical in this spot, sporting 5-15 ATS record when favored by less than five points at Amway Arena.

This swing game will start at 8:35 Eastern on TNT, with Orlando 12-1 ATS in last 13 meeting with Cavs, including 5-1 against the spread on home floor.

Cavs favored, but no lock for Game 2

The mind is a tricky thing and though you want to believe you can control how it works at all times, sometimes it will betray you against your better judgment. Take the Cleveland Cavaliers, in the first 24 minutes against Orlando of Game 1 of the Eastern Finals; they could have hardly played any better, finishing with a splendid crescendo, a 70-foot heave by Mo Williams giving the Cavs a 63-48 halftime lead.

Though every Cleveland player knew they still had two quarters of basketball to play, the two previous teams had played over the last month just caved in. Besides, the Cavaliers had lost just twice at Quicken Loans Arena all season and one hardly mattered being the last game of regular season in contest mostly played by reserves.

But this Orlando bunch has a little magic in them. They have been one of the best road teams in the NBA all season, as 32-17 and 31-18 ATS record proves. They have closed out two series in enemy territory, playing arguably their best game of the series in each case, showing their mettle.

Coach Stan Van Gundy must be a better salesman than believed. His game plan to stop LeBron James in the first half was to let him have medium range jump shots and all LeBron did was drain virtually every one in totaling 26 points. At halftime, he ripped into his Orlando team, for failure to execute and though many coaches would have had players rolling eyes, the Magic players listened and outscored Cleveland 30-19 in the third quarter and went on to steal Game 1.

Heading into Game 2, potential clues are in view to how the series could play out. Cavs coach Mike Brown acted as if he had Superman and let James hang on to the ball too long, with Cleveland players standing around watching LeBron and offense went stagnant. This carried over to defensive end, where Orlando shot 59 percent in the second half and had superior ball movement against the NBA’s best defense. Need proof, Orlando had 32 assists in 43 made baskets, Cleveland had nine fewer assists on same number of makes.

Another HUGE factor was the bench, the Magic held 25-5 edge, unless coach Brown can find answers, Cleveland might be in more trouble than many believed.

The Cavs are 14-2 ATS after one or more consecutive losses this season, winning by average of 13.2 points per game and understand this is must win. Cleveland found out you can’t win one on five, especially this time of year and a large slice of humble pie might bring back focus needed to play four quarters.

Cleveland can’t let Hedu Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis do whatever they please, like they did in opener. The tandem took turns ripping the heart out of Cleveland defense. Unless they are contained, no reason the Magic don’t go to 17-6 ATS as underdogs.

The oddsmakers at DiamondSportsbook.com have taken neutral stance, with Cleveland as nine-point home favorite and letting the public choose. They did make a severe adjustment on the total, moving four and half points to 188.5, which might suggest they believe the Magic could cover again. Orlando is 21-8 OVER after two straight games with 26 or more assists, which explains they tend to play free and easy when in offensive rhythm. Cleveland on the other hand is 11-2 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game and must not get caught up in trading baskets with Magic.

You have to wonder if Orlando’s non-traditional scheme messes with Cavs D, having won four of six outright in northern Ohio with six straight covers. In fact, the Magic are 10-1 ATS against Cleveland no matter where they play. Game 2 commences at 8:35 Eastern on TNT.