With
Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can’t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven’t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.
North Carolina (+3, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E
The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech’s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis’ defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What’s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.
Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.
Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.
Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.
3DWLine – Pick
Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E
Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino’s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he’s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB’s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.
Coach Nick Saban’s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he’s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he’ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.
This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet’s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher’s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.
Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.
3DW Line – Alabama by 15
California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E
California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn’t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd’Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.
Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn’t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn’t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.
Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.
3DW Line – California by 5.5
Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E
It’s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren’t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.
Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami’s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami’s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.
This is Virginia Tech’s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.
Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.
The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB’s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.
3DW Line – Virginia Tech by 10
Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E
Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz’s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
At this juncture, it’s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn’t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players’ hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.
Joe Paterno’s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa’s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa’s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.
StatFox Power Line – Penn State 7.5
Texas Tech (+1, 74.5) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E
It’s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin’s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.
Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre’ Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.
As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.
3DW Line – Texas Tech by 1
Today on the ESPN family of networks, two of the remaining four unbeaten teams in college basketball will lace’em up in trying to keep their noticeable fast starts intact. Fourth ranked Purdue continues their Big Ten schedule hosting Minnesota, while No. 2 Texas rekindles an old Southwest Conference rivalry with Arkansas.
Posts
