Know your College Football Coaches before wagering

For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.

Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.

Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.

Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.

Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)

Coaches with best home ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh - Virginia- 31-18

Notes- Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 26-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes at Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.

Coaches with best road ATS records-

Turner Gill –Buffalo- 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie –UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest– 28-19

Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-22 and 6-17 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.

Coaches with best favorite ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -9-2
Mark Mangino –Kansas -25-9
Mike Gundy –Okla. State – 15-7
Chris Ault- Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina -14-7

Notes-Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 27-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 19-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.

Coaches with best underdog ATS records-

Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-7
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 20-10
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5

Notes- Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 9-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Mike Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.

Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records-

Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-5
Turner Gill –Buffalo- 11-4
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 27-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6

Notes- Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-27 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-12 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-13 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.

Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records-

Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden –Florida State- 43-23
Randy Edsall– UConn – 28-15

Notes- Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-14 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.