Jets and Bills Thursday Preview

Like the New England-Tampa Bay matchup in London, passports will be needed for a New York-Buffalo matchup north of the border at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Despite the hype and revenue this matchup produces, the buzz around Western New York has been the meeting between former Denver head coach Mike Shanahan and the Bills upper brass about the open coaching vacancy left by Dick Jauron.

These division teams are playing for little more than pride at this point although there is a chance the Jets (5-6 SU & ATS) could work their way into the wildcard race yet.

While Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS) sorts out its head coaching situation, interim coach Perry Fewell will run the ship for the rest of the campaign and try to figure out how to generate some points on offense in the final five games. Whether it’s Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, sustained drives have been hard to come by and a rag-tag offensive line, which has been brutal. The Bills had averaged 12.2 points per game in last eight outings before ending their most recent losing streak at three games with 31-14 decision over Miami as four-point home underdogs. The Bills are 8-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over an AFC East rival.

This will be the second meeting between the teams in 2009, and New York will be looking to avenge a 16-13 home defeat. Buffalo has won four of the last six, including both SU and ATS between the clubs in Orchard Park, with the underdog on a 3-0 spread roll. For the Bills, this is a second divisional home game in five days so to speak, and they are 3-1 ATS in this season vs. AFC East rivals after the upset of Miami.

Nevertheless, only six teams average fewer points than Fewell’s crew, and the offense has only four rushing touchdowns heading into Week 13. The Jets, meanwhile, are second (161.3 yards per game) in the league in rushing and boast 14 rushing scores.

New York will be looking for a much better performance from rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez than the last time he faced the Bills. The Week 6 loss to Buffalo was the first signs of cracking in the Sanchez foundation. He threw five interceptions, three to rookie Jairus Byrd, and wasted a 210-yard, one-touchdown effort from RB Thomas Jones and a potential 50-yard field-goal try by Jay Feely in overtime saw holder Steve Weatherford unable to handle the snap. The Flyboys are 3-6 ATS since 2005 in the first of two straight road assignments.

Bookmaker.com has New York as three-point favorites in Toronto and the Jets have won just once in five divisional games, both SU & ATS and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC East contests overall. Coach Rex Ryan’s defense held Carolina to six points and 179 yards in the Meadowlands last week and they are 13-3 UNDER in road games after allowing four or less yards per play in their previous game. The listed total for this clash is 37 points.

Buffalo is 8-3 ATS against Gang Green since 2004 and after forcing four turnovers last Sunday, the Bills are 6-0 UNDER after a game with turnover margin of +3 or better.

This is NFL Network telecast which starts at 8:20E and the UNDER is perfect 6-0 on Thursday night’s this season.


Steve Makinen of The Platinum Sheet and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article

Carolina at Miami Matchup

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown now officially listed as done for the season. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Bookmaker.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Steve Makinen of StatFox and College and Pro Football Weekly contributed to this article.