It pays to have a great defense in college football

Dating back to Perry Mason and fast-forwarding to Denny Crane of Boston Legal, it’s always been an asset to have a good defense. That has also been the case in winning college football games, since we have always heard the mantra, “defense wins championships”. The question is does a top notch defense help the sports bettor win money?

Without a doubt, it is part of the winning portfolio and in many ways overlooked more than it should be by the average bettor. It’s been proven that a football game is broken down into three parts, with seven pieces within it. The breakdown is three on offense, three on defense and one for special teams. Great defensive teams provide a quandary of sorts for oddsmakers, compared to terrific offensive teams.

When the game starts, both teams fundamental goal is to score points and prevent the opposition from doing so, not exactly SportsCenter highlight material. The advantage an offense has there is no limit to the number of points they can score based on possessions or other areas like defensive touchdowns for scores and special teams finding ways to light the scoreboard. Teams with superior defenses cannot impact the score per se in the same manner since in football and all other major team sports; you can’t do better than zero.

Oddsmakers have the ability from public perception to add points to certain teams, especially when the team has offense that turn numbers like Vanna White changes letters. Teams that play tremendous defense don’t have the same appeal to sports bettors, unless they have potent offense. The other problem with great defense is they could pitch a shutout, but if their quarterback decides he likes throwing the pigskin to the other team as much as his own players, a 13-0 victory as a two-touchdown favorite will subtract from wagering account.

What should the sports bettor look for in a great defense? Like every lawyer, first you have to understand the laws. It rather simple to understand that if prevent the other team from scoring, your chances of winning are dramatically increased. You might be saying to yourself, Doug, I don’t need to read this article to know that. And for the most part I’d agree with except for the fact that college football generates billions of dollars, as does the wagering industry on football, yet the game in its most basic form is simply blocking and tackling. Do we know from week to week who is going to do that the best? I digress.

Currently, familiar names like Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, USC, Penn State and Ohio State are among the leaders in fewest points allowed. Two teams that are also among the top group are South Florida and Nebraska. At this juncture, it might be wise to be mildly skeptical about these two squads, as the only legitimate team USF faced was Florida State, though they did hold them to seven points. Let’s see how they do against Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh before we go all in on the Bulls. Nebraska has the right coach in Bo Pelini for defense, nevertheless, three home games against Sun Belt teams is not a good barometer.

Total defense is another good method to follow, but don’t buy in just yet. Teams like N.C. State, Connecticut and Arizona State dot this category. Each has had their turn against meager competition and done a fairly good job against comparable teams. Waiting it out another week won’t hurt to start building portfolio on these squads. Otherwise, stick with proven teams that restrict offenses.

Moving ahead, two other specific categories reflect a truer strength in this reporter’s often less than humble opinion, while still taking scheduling into consideration.

The YPPT or yards per point index is a wonderful gauge of defensive strength. This is based on the number of points the opposing team scores per 100 yards. Why this is superior to “points allowed” for example, take a look at this in-game situation. Say the Alabama offense is turnover-prone one day as six-point road favorites. They have three fumbles and interceptions in their territory and their opponent cashes them in for 17 points, gaining 80 total yards. The entire rest of the contest, Bama’s opposition moves the ball for just another 120 total yards and no points. The Crimson Tide’s offense goes on to score 24 points and wins 24-17, covering the spread. In just looking at points surrendered, it looks like the Crimson Tide’s opponent that day did fairly well against them, yet in fact they held them in-check except for their own miscues and ended up with good day based statistics. In reviewing these numbers, the Sooners, Gators and Trojans are all camped out here, but others maybe not on everyone’s radar appear. Iowa proved just how strong they are defensively in shutting down Penn State. Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the category and was supposed to have strong offensive team; however it has been the defense that has carried them. If quarterback Jevan Snead comes around, the Rebels could roll when it comes to covering spreads.

The best situation to wager on a quality defensive club is when they are underdog. The Hawkeyes win at Penn State was ideal way to consider for wager. Their defense was able to absorb quick blow by the Nittany Lions and gradually took over the game, rendering the Jo Pa’s with no working options once they trailed in the game. Stellar defensive squads catching points are always worth a look.

The final area to examine is yards per play (YPP) allowed. This speaks to the constant domination of a defense. Any team allowing 4.1 yards per play or less is going to be difficult to sustain a drive against. Most teams will average about 12 possessions per contest and roughly have to travel 60-70 yards to score touchdowns. To beat a controlling defensive team like this (turnovers the unknown variable), an offense would have to put together three separate drives of 13 or more plays to score three touchdowns to give themselves an opportunity to win. Can it be done, of course it can, but betting on it consistently is like playing a six-team parlay weekly, expecting to win.

Not to be redundant, but teams coached by Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Nick Saban are listed again, with a few you might not have thought of. North Carolina, Oregon, TCU and Mississippi have all played representative slates and have held opposing offensives to low numbers on yardage manufactured per play.

In the end, if you are going to have to take on Law and Order, you would want to have Alan Shore of Crane, Pool and Schmidt, backing you up with his slick defensive moves to make you a winner.

The Odds of Winning the BCS Championship

With just four weeks left in the college football regular season, it’s time to sit down and conclude who has the best chance to win the BCS trophy and more importantly for college football bettors, who is the best team to wager on. The question has come my way, why make a wager now on who could be national champions. Let me think, how many of you threw away futures tickets on say Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Missouri and (clearing throat for comedic affect) Clemson.

Oh I’m sure some of you took long shots on Alabama or Texas before the season started, but what the heck, it’s much easier to win when the field is narrowed down. For all you that took Clemson and play 10-team parlays on a regular basis, the true idea behind sports betting is to win, not hope you win.

Penn State went from the odds-on favorite last week to essentially out of the picture with upset loss to Iowa. Check these teams out.

Florida Gators (9-5 odds)

Urban Meyer’s team is situated as the odds on favorite to be BCS champions again. They will be favored against South Carolina at home and have no reason to look ahead playing The Citadel next week (can anyone explain why). The usual end of the season battle with Florida State won’t be quite as easy as the last few years; however Tim Tebow should find a way to beat the Seminoles. The matchup with Alabama will be very interesting. The Crimson Tide has the athletic skills to play with Florida and is more physical. Meyer won’t have a coaching edge in this meeting, in fact might have somebody his superior. Alabama is more disciplined, especially in the big games. If the Gators survive, they would be a favorite against any other championship contender except USC. Consider the lower odds a fair bet.


Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2 odds)

The Crimson Tide has one the most important intangibles many recent champions have had. Since 2000, three different coaches have won a national championship in their second season coaching at that university. This means they walked into a good situation with talented players who needed direction and added more by their recruiting efforts. In fact, every coach except Mack Brown has won the title within the first four years with the school in the last eight years, which includes Nick Saban at LSU. Today, coaches have to get talented players on the field right away, to maximize their time, as the cream of the crop heads to the NFL draft board once eligible. Though Mississippi State and Auburn have been tussles in the past, playing at home should make winning a foregone conclusion for Bama. To beat Florida in SEC title game, Alabama will have to have same steely resolve they have had in every big game. They have the ability to make Florida one-dimensional and can control the clock. If they move past them, the Tide is three-point favorite or more against anybody not named USC.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1 odds)

Texas Tech is in control of their own destiny ranked number two in the BCS standings after beating Texas and Oklahoma State in back to back games. The Red Raiders offense has proven to be all but unstoppable as quarterback Graham Harrell has the inside trck on standing at the podium at the New York Downtown Athletic Club in mid-December. The Texas Tech offense places so much pressure on opposing defenses figuring out best way to stop them. This ways heavy on the minds of the other team’s offense once the Red Raiders score, as they feel compelled to match scores and press, not playing with fluidity they normally would. Skeptics have to be impressed with what Mike Leach’s club has accomplished; however want to see them play the same way on the road, which they do on Nov. 22 at Oklahoma. If they survive the trip to Norman, they have Baylor at home, followed by Big 12 championship, in which they would be a double digit favorite. With the remaining contenders, Texas Tech would be an underdog against any SEC team or USC, though the number keeps shrinking with each victory.

Oklahoma Sooners (9-2 odds)

This has the appearance of a poor wager at this time, with Oklahoma needing a lot of help. Oklahoma can steer its path to a degree, still being able to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they win out and all the other Big 12 South contenders remain victorious, watch out. According to Big 12 rules, the first four tiebreakers will not be enough to declare a winner. The fifth rule becomes the most important; the team with the highest BCS ranking is declared the winner. Think about that for a second. (That’s a completely different article) Like all the teams in contention in the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be a double digit favorite against whoever comes out of the North Division.

If they managed to get all the way to the title game, Bob Stoops team would be an underdog to whoever came out of the SEC, in large part to a faulty defense that has given up a bundle of points against the better offenses in the Big 12.

USC Trojans (5-1 odds)

Head coach Pete Carroll is frustrated with the BCS and on point he is correct. He knows he very likely has one the best teams in college football that was asleep for a half at Oregon State and groggy for another 15 minutes in various parts. A playoff would settle any doubts, however that won’t happen this year or in the foreseeable future with too much money coming to easily. USC needs Florida State to beat Florida, the Gators to defeat Alabama, the Big 12 North champion to beat what would be a one or two loss team out of the Big South. If all that happened and the Trojans win out, they would meet somebody for the national championship game and would be at least a field goal if not more favorite.

Oddsmakers love USC and would make them a favorite against any team in the country, except maybe the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.

Texas Longhorns (4-1 odds)

Like the rest of the teams, Texas needs help. Winning out the regular season won’t be problem with Kansas and Texas A&M, needing Texas Tech to slip up twice is. The loss at Lubbock has been discussed way out of context in the state of Texas considering whom the Horns had to play. Complaints of the Longhorns not being ready to play were foolish, having to play that many strong teams consecutively. Only Notre Dame in 1943 has been able to defeat a top-12 squad four weeks in a row. The Longhorns remain in the hunt, but have lost control of their destiny.

Utah (100-1 field bet) and Boise State (200-1)

The odds of either of these teams making it to the BCS championship are somewhat better than the Conference USA champion earning a BCS at-large berth, but not a lot better.

As the Cold Winds of November blow, Know your Football Numbers

The month of November for much of the country sees thick dark low clouds become a more regular occurrence; a foreshadowing what lies ahead in the coming months. In the South and West, the days are often still sunny, but the thermometer takes a much slower climb to reach the daytime highs as the cooler nights linger much longer. Betting college football is also in transition in November. All the conference races head down the final stretch to figure out the winners. Bowl slots are determined by how teams finish in the standings, some pleased, and others not so much. The rhetoric about what teams deserve to play in the national championship game and fill the BCS bowls hits a fever pitch and upsets happen in the most unlikely places, like Pittsburgh upsetting West Virginia, spoiling their chance at the title last year.

November is not for the faint of heart, since just because a team needs to win, doesn’t mean they do. Inevitably the cream rises to the top. The very best teams hit their stride, reaching the next plateau in accomplishments. These teams are identifiable by the physical nature of which they play. The stronger teams become stronger and beat teams that are wearing down having been wearing the pads since August. Typically these squads have a solid running game and pass the ball with greater efficiency. The defense has the ability to make the opponent one-dimensional and expose their weaknesses.

The pretenders are exposed, having gotten by with an easier schedule to this point or maybe a pass defense has not been fully exploited and now faces teams that have studied the tape on them and have the ability to take advantage of their shortcomings. Another scenario that happens every November is injuries mount and no matter how well you have played and survived to this point, the reserves are just not as good and these teams lose.

For the 11th month on the calendar, trends can be very useful source since they paint a picture about the recent history of a team. That’s not to say you should trust these trends unequivocally, rather a good starting point to help formulate good a quality wager.

Certain teams have a home/ road dichotomy, playing well at home and not on the road. Two teams that fit this profile perfectly are highly ranked Oklahoma State and fellow Big 12 partner Texas A&M. The Cowboys are having a remarkable campaign under coach Mike Gundy with one of the most powerful offenses in the country. The defense continues to improve and they are set to have a great finish, especially when playing at home where Oklahoma State is 11-3-2 against the spread at Boone Pickens Stadium. What bettors have to watch out for is Okie State on the road, being 5-11-1 ATS as November visitors.

Mike Sherman was brought in to Texas A&M to turnaround the football program and the changes he has made have been sweeping, probably to the detriment of this year’s club. The offense has at least started scoring points, but the defense is slower than my uncle reaching to grab the check for dinner. With this conundrum, the Aggies are sure to add to 4-13 ATS record on the road. However, with the offense improving and with the help of the famous 12th man at College Station, backing A&M at home with 10-3-2 spread record isn’t all bad.

It always helps to accentuate the positive and large group of universities have stellar November records. You will find teams that do well at home, others on the road or they just know how to finish the regular season. A couple of MAC teams are not up to previous standards, nevertheless are worth a look this month based on the past. Miami-Ohio is 28-12 and 24-14-2 ATS since Tom Hanks won second straight Oscar for Forrest Gump. (1995). Toledo has also been a strong closer with 14-6 mark and 13-6-1 ATS record.

One team on nobody’s radar is UL-Monroe, maybe it’s time to play attention with 6-1 and 7-0 ATS record the last two years. Michigan State is another good club this month, playing the power game and they are 18-10-2 ATS in November. Let’s not forget the best team in the country, as Texas is 19-9-2 ATS to finish the regular season.

Missouri has delivered for college football bettors with 18-9 ATS road record since 1999 and Miami-Fl. have the same winning percentage with 14-7 spread mark. Mississippi State seldom attains notoriety, but delivers well on the road with 17-10-1 ATS record this month.

Though this season has been bumpy, East Carolina flourishes at home with recent 6-1 number against the linemakers. Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in raisin country and Virginia Tech before its always wildly enthusiastic fans is 17-7-1 in November contests in Blacksburg.

It can be difficult to comprehend why seemingly top notch programs don’t deliver better wagering results late in the year, especially at home. The most reliable theory is teams are comfortable playing before the home fans, lacking that edginess necessary to put away conference rivals. With the stakes usually high, the opposing teams are also fighting for conference honors or seeking to pull that last upset which could make their season. If these battles are close in the fourth quarter, the coach of the more skilled home team becomes more conservative and looks more to survive to play another day, than risk peddle to the mettle.

Unbeaten Alabama has been such a team with unsightly 4-16-2 ATS figure at home in November and fellow SEC member LSU, is right with the Crimson Tide as a home play against team with 5-16 ATS record. Despite Boston College’s continued growth and playing in the colder Northeast, they have failed to cover seven of the last nine tilts on Chestnut Hill late in the year.

Earlier, teams being exposed for playing poor defense were mentioned and UTEP fits the bill, with 5-13 record, covering the number a measly three times.

There is no shortage of road teams who fail miserably in November, take a gander.

Army 6-15 ATS
Baylor 4-13-1 ATS
Bowling Green 10-17 ATS
Kansas 4-20 ATS
Marshall 4-12 ATS
Nebraska 5-9-1 ATS
TCU 3-8-1 ATS
Wake Forest 5-15 ATS

There are other schools that flounder in November, with losing wagers go hand in hand. Tulane is 3-9 straight up and against the spread in the month where Thanksgiving resides. Florida Atlantic from the Sun Belt Conference is 4-10 ATS and New Mexico State from the WAC is whacked posting 10-19 ATS numbers. Kent State is 4-22 this month and 8-18 ATS, hardly a cause for thanksgiving, unless you are on the other side.

When it comes to the understanding college football in the last major month of the regular season, be knee-deep in knowledge supporting the right teams that will make you a winner.