Ravens at Colts Preview

The AFC’s #1 seed is in action on Saturday evening, and hoping to snap out of a losing funk. The Colts won their first 14 games before losing the final two amidst a controversy of deciding to rest starters. While most players and coaches agree Indianapolis head man Jim Caldwell did the right thing in looking at the broader view of trying to get to another Super Bowl, he has left himself wide open for criticism if they would falter against Baltimore.

Defensively, Peyton Manning and Colts know the Ravens first order of business is to take away the run, which is not a big deal for them since they only average 81 yards per game on the ground anyway. This Indianapolis team can’t abandon the run entirely, seeking to keep average of around 23 carries per game. Where the offensive line really has to perform is in the passing game, protecting Manning against the blitzes he will face. They will have no excuse after the way Baltimore started at New England, slugging them in the mouth and the Patriots not responding. The Colts won 14 games, had 10-6 ATS mark and should know exactly what to do.

The Ravens (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) didn’t lose seven games by accident, they have very definable weaknesses. The Colts figure to attack Baltimore on the perimeter, since their corners are not strong at keeping coverage, particularly on deeper patterns where they have to turn and run with receivers. Indy will experiment in the first quarter with Dallas Clark. If Baltimore decides to utilize Ed Reed in more single coverage on Clark, that opens the rest of the field for Manning to attack their greatest deficiency. If instead they let linebackers and a strong safety try and guard Clark, he’s too much of mismatch, which the Colts can exploit.

The Indianapolis defense cannot let Baltimore dictate tempo. Coach John Harbaugh has determined the best way for his team to win and it is as basic as it gets, blocking and tackling. If the Ravens three-headed running monster is in second or third and short continually, Baltimore sends Indy packing in first playoff game for the four time in five years and raises postseason mark to 9-3 SU and ATS. The blue-clad Colts are 13-5 and ugly 6-12 ATS in last 18 home assignments.

Baltimore can pull the upset, but they must stay in character and hit a few big plays. The Ravens have lost seven straight to Indianapolis, covering the spread only once, which included Nov. 22, 17-15 defeat as one-point home underdog. The Birds have manufactured just 11.6 points per game against Indy’s defense in this stretch. That means Joe Flacco has to hit deep passes or Ray Rice has to bust a long run or two. If Baltimore offensive can set the tempo, they move to 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in two straight times.

Bookmaker.com has the Ravens catching 6.5-points with total of 44. For many bettors Baltimore looks to be the play, given their strong defense and tough-minded attitude. While those are admirable qualities, remember teams that won as road underdogs in the Wild Card round are 3-8 ATS in next outing. Similar to Arizona, Ray Lewis’ squad had just six days off and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. When does the well run dry?

Lewis and the defense will have to be lucky and good. They will have to disguise coverage’s and hopefully make Manning a bit anxious, blitzing on early downs and keeping eight men in coverage on passing downs. Baltimore is 13-2 ATS when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards and 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.

In the teams last eight meetings when the total is in the 40’s, the UNDER is 6-2.

Monday Night Football Preview

As far as NFL preseason games go, this Monday night contest has a number of story lines to follow. The New York Jets have a new head coach in Rex Ryan and it is taking all of one game to return to Baltimore, where he spent the last 10 years, the last four as defensive coordinator. While Ryan will acquaint himself with friends on the Ravens sidelines and others in the stands, he will have to soon make his first really challenging decision of who will the Flyboys starting quarterback.

In many ways it’s a no-lose decision, since top draft choice Mark Sanchez will be under center as the starting quarterback in New York eventually. Sanchez is battling with holdover Kellen Clemens and the former USC Trojan will take the field first when the Jets have the ball on Monday.

New York lost at home to St. Louis 23-20 as four-point favorites and arrives in Baltimore in a favorable spot. The Jets are three-point underdogs at DiamondSportsbook.com and underdogs (or Pick) off an upset loss as a favorite are 29-9 ATS this week of the preseason.

Sanchez, Clemens and Erik Anige will go against what has been one the best defenses of this decade in the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis may no longer have the speed and quickness of a few seasons ago, yet he spearheads a fearsome bunch that enjoys hitting whatever moves in opposing uniforms. The defense befuddled Washington last week, holding them to 196 total points and kept them from registering any points.

Offensively, second year signal caller Joe Flacco was efficient 9-of-15 for 103 yards in two series and will see greater action this week. Troy Smith will follow Flacco after throwing for 200 yards last week, part of the 500 yards the Ravens totaled. With John Beck out with shoulder injury, Baltimore signed Cleo Lemon this week, since he is familiar with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's system, having played in Miami when Cameron was there. With last week’s shutout win, Baltimore is 4-5 ATS at home the last five years in the preseason.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 32.5 and which would appear to favor New York who is 11-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 35 or less. The low figure could also attract the attention of totals players, with the Ravens 22-10 UNDER as a favorite and 11-2 UNDER as a home favorite of three points or less.

Kickoff is set for 8 Eastern on ESPN with New York 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games as the visitor.

AFC Title Game Info

In today’s unstable world and even shakier economy, we are being bombarded with messages about “thinking outside the box” or embracing change to whether thru the worst of times anyone has seen in decades. Yet when it comes to our sports clichés, we accept them like old tales - “feed a cold, starve a fever.” The AFC Championship game brings one of oldies but goodies that everyone from any age has heard, “It’s hard to beat the same team three times.”

Even before the end of Pittsburgh’s win over San Diego and the clock striking midnight Sunday, if you had a dollar for every time that expression was used on the various sports stations, come last Monday morning, you had enough money to eat lunch out all week and not on the dollar menu either. Even the participants were beating the drum. "It's hard to beat a team three times in a row in a season,'' Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor stated.

The next installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC North rivalry will to be the most important meeting in the history of the series. The winner heads to warm and sunny Tampa Bay in two weeks for Super Bowl XLIII.

Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in two hard-fought; tightly contest games, by scores of 23-20 and 13-9 respectively. In both instances, the Ravens out-rushed the Steelers by a fairly generous margin (107.5 vs 80 yards), but came up short in the passing game, which could make the difference again. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 180 passing yards against Baltimore’s defense in two meetings compared to rookie Joe Flacco coming in at exactly 50 yards less at 130. Ultimately, this may once again be the deciding factor in who will represent the AFC west Florida.

The last time division rivals met in a conference championship was 1999 season, when fourth seed Tennessee traveled to Jacksonville, who was the top seed in the AFC and whipped them 33-14, completing a three-game sweep that season, which led to Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore has had unfathomable year, winning and covering 11 of its last 13 games, thanks to a good running game, a passing game that makes just enough completions to matter and a defense that leaves black and blue marks so deep, it looks like a tattoo even weeks later. The hard hitting and ball hawking nature shows itself in the turnover margin. Since losing three in a row to start the year 2-3, Baltimore is an unimaginable +24, including a +7 differential in the playoffs.

Even having the double revenge angle, this will a difficult assignment for the Ravens. Begin with this being their 17 consecutive game, as they were forced to take unwanted bye in Week 2, no thanks to Hurricane Ike. No less than eight defensive players will appear on this week’s injury report, though all are expected to play, how well is another matter. For cliché purposes, games are won on the scoreboard, not on the stat sheet, yet in two playoff games, the Ravens have been out-gained 667-397. Nevertheless, they will arrive in the Steel City 11-2 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh comes in as healthy as they have been all season, with Willie Parker fresh, Big Ben showing no affects of concussion and the league’s best defense as ferocious as ever. Bettors flocked to Bookmaker.com and other wagering outlets, taking the Steelers from 4.5-point favorites to current six, with total of 34. The Steelers know exactly what to expect from the Ravens and understand ball protection will be tantamount. In Pittsburgh’s four losses, they had three or more turnovers in three defeats and were 13-1 and 10-4 ATS in all other games. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Pittsburgh is just 9-8 ATS as home favorite in the playoffs, hoping to advance to second Super Bowl in four years. The higher seed has advanced to the big game in five of the last six years (4-2 ATS) in the AFC title game, with the lone exception being a sixth seed (Pittsburgh in 2005), just like Baltimore is.

What you Need to Know

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to do virtually the same thing. They both will want to run and control the line of scrimmage. This sets up play-action passing game and each will be unafraid to take deep shots down the field. Because of the similarities, the difference could be the experienced player under center.

Both defenses are menacing and will want to funnel the action towards their strengths, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis for Baltimore and James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for Pittsburgh. Will the road finally wear out the Ravens?

Key System- In the Conference Finals, Play Against any team this is an underdog, if they were an underdog in last game. (20-12 ATS)