NIT Semi-Finals Preview

College basketball’s craziness continues in New York in the National Invitational Tournament. While the NCAA tourney only saw one of its top seeds advance to its Final Four, none of the four teams that were seeded at the top of their bracket moved on to Madison Square Garden, the last three all losing at home in prior round. This sets up a wide open finish for the NIT.

(2) Mississippi vs (3) Dayton 7:00E ESPN2

The Dayton Flyers (23-12, 16-15 ATS) came stumbling down the stretch with 3-6 SU record (1-7-1 ATS), being eliminated in A-10 Tournament by eventual champion Xavier. The Flyers were picked to be conference champions, but limped to 8-8 record in a league that was much tougher than expected. For whatever reason, Dayton took flight and has won and covered three games in a row by a margin of 14 points per game.

The Flyers are still playing great defense (holding three teams to 37.3 percent or less shooting), but it has been the offense that has brighten up, shooting over 48 percent in this tournament compared to 44.6 percent on the season. Dayton is 8-1 ATS after playing consecutive road games over the last three seasons.

Mississippi (24-10, 18-11 ATS) saw Arizona State fall in their very first contest in the NIT, which opened the door to three encounters at home for the Rebels. They took advantage of the situation and are running away from the competition. Ole Miss has average 88 points per game, trying to force opponents to keep up, which they have not been able to do. Terrico White and Chris Warren are living up to reputation as a guard tandem. With defense not the primary concern, the Rebels are 12-3 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in back to back contests.

Bookmaker.com had opened Ole Miss as a favorite, but the line has fallen to a one-point underdog and the total of 142 seems about right if these teams were playing 35 minutes instead of 40. This should be true up and down affair, with plenty of dunks and speed from both clubs and Dayton is 19-10 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots. Mississippi is 11-3 ATS away from Oxford off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island 9:20E ESPN2

Both of these teams come in the second semi-final really feeling good about their prospects after winning on enemy floors in really challenging environments, where not many opposing teams escape victorious. The Tar Heels (19-16, 12-20 ATS) went into a real hornets’ nest at Alabama-Birmingham and made enough offense plays while playing great defense (UAB shot 28.8 percent) to come away with the win 60-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. Much maligned point guard Larry Drew provided steady ball-handling and leadership. While coach Roy Williams would like to believe his guard is finally figuring out what he has been preaching all year, Drew offers this reason for improved judgment and play.

I just don't want to lose," he told the Raleigh New & Observer. "I just don't want to go home. I just don't want to stop playing. I've done my share of my things wrong this season, and I've made my share of mistakes. And I just want to turn things around for myself, and the team." North Carolina is sensational 7-0 AT in road post-season tournament games the last two seasons.

Rhode Island (26-9, 12-17 ATS) is at its best when it has a three-pronged scoring attack of Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are making outside shots, which has been the case in the NIT. The Rams overcame a big deficit at Virginia Tech and won going away 79-72. Rhode Island is 26-15 ATS in road games after one or more Over’s.

Similar to North Carolina, this tournament has been therapeutic for Rhode Island, who started 19-3 and looked like a sure-fire NCAA team in early February. The Rams are a one-point favorite with total of 150.5, but are 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this year. The Tar Heels are in the same boat against the spread with crummy 4-13 ATS record after one or more Under’s this season.

Common opponents might be a telling factor in the nightcap with UNC 2-2 & 1-3 ATS (+3.5 point margin) and URI 3-0 & 2-1 ATS, winning by 6.6 PPG.

NIT Quarterfinals Matchups

Last night two teams punched their tickets for a trip to New York next week and two more will do so tonight in the NIT. On Tuesday, both road underdogs covered the spread, with North Carolina winning outright. Is history due to repeat itself in Blacksburg and Champaign or will the home teams stand their ground and get ready to take a bite out of the Big Apple?

Rhode Island (25-9, 11-17-3 ATS) may have worn their road uniforms this month; however they haven’t visited enemy territory in awhile. The Rams haven’t played a true road game since Mar. 6 at Massachusetts, losing 69-67 as 7.5-point favorites. In fact, Rhode Island hasn’t won a road game period, last doing so on Ground Hogs Day at LaSalle. The Rams are 24-12 ATS in non-conference contests the last three years and could use another hot shooting night from Delroy James, who pumped in a career-high 34 points against Nevada two nights ago, to help Rhode Island advance in 85-83 thriller. They are only 2-9 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season.

Virginia Tech (25-8, 14-12-1 ATS) also had a nail-biter Monday night, finding a way to knock off Connecticut 65-63. The Hokies won in spite of Malcolm Delaney scoring six points on 2-14 shooting. Delaney still found a way to contribute with nine assists.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Virginia Tech as six-point favorite with total of 143 and the Hokies are 13-4 ATS off a close home win by three points or less, while the Rams are 2-8 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or points after 15 or more games this season. This first NIT quarterfinal is on ESPN2 at 7 Eastern with Rhode Island 11-0 UNDER against defensive teams surrendering 42 percent or less shooting percentage past the midway point of the regular season.

Dayton (21-12, 15-15-1 ATS) had an undistinguished regular season, finishing eighth in the A-10 and being bounced in the quarterfinals of the league tourney by Xavier. The Flyers can earn team redemption by winning tonight and moving on to NIT semis with upset of Illinois (21-14, 14-17-2 ATS). Dayton has played extremely well in this tournament, with a 20-point win over Illinois State and taking it to in-state partner Cincinnati 81-66 on their floor. The Flyers have locked up opponents with stifling defense, holding last two to 33.3 percent from the field. However, they are 5-18 ATS playing their second road game in three days.

Illinois was thought to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost five of their last six regular season games and had two chances to knock off Ohio State in Big Ten tourney and failed to do so. Coach Bruce Weber’s squad has put aside that disappointment and is 40 minutes from making trip to Madison Square Garden, winning three of last four and not losing against the spread in those contests (3-0-1 ATS). The Fighting Illini’s win against Kent State was impressive (75-58) and they are 29-13 ATS at home off a home win by 10 points or more.

Dayton is a three-point underdog for this 9:00 Eastern contest on “the deuce” and is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.