NCAA Tournament Wagering Summation

Whew, what a four days of college basketball. Similar to the Food Network’s Man vs. Food, in this case it was Man vs. Brackets and the Brackets won with a 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th seed all in the Sweet 16. If the last couple of tournaments have been a little chalky, things evened out over time the last four days.

CBS might have to do an extended remake of Jennifer Hudson’s new version of “One shining moment” for this tournament with all the buzzer beaters and tight contests. A very lucky 13 of the 33 games played were decided by four points or less. Only eight of the seeds listed four or higher made it to their respective regions. Talk about survive and advance!

While this is all exciting stuff, how did sports bettors do? Like always, results are mixed depending on the individual, however if underdogs were one’s preference, you likely did fairly well. If favorites were played more frequently, might be time to check with your sports books reload bonus program.

Favorites are 31-18 SU for the entire tournament, with 23-26 ATS record. The first round was especially tough on them with 13-20 ATS mark. They did come back over the weekend with 10-6 ATS record.

As is the case each year, the favorite isn’t always the higher seed. To date those teams with the lower numbers assigned them by the tournament committee are 33-15 and 23-25 ATS.
Further breaking down the side action, interesting developments occurred. Favorites that were favored by 7.5 or more moved forward with 14-1 record, with the shocking loss of the top overall team Kansas being the lone exception. Backing these clubs was a losing proposition however with a 7-8 spread record.

Speaking of losing, that’s exactly what short favorites have done thru two rounds. Teams favored by four points or less were 9-14 SU and dastardly 8-15 ATS. This was particularly true in the first round with only five victories and 4-11 ATS record.

The Big East was supposed to be the best conference this season and was thought to be more than tested for this event after facing each other all year. Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 and the league is 6-6 and 5-7 ATS to this juncture.

The Big 12 was listed behind the Big East as a power conference and was thought to have no less than three teams playing this next weekend. However, with the Jayhawks vanquished, only Kansas State and Baylor moved on and the conference is 5-7 ATS to date.

The power conference has been the Big Ten with three entrants and 7-2 record (4-5 ATS).

The biggest winner in a manner of speaking in the so-called mid-major, with Butler, St. Mary’s and Northern Iowa all advancing and not coincidently, all three won their conference tournaments. Cornell might be the first Ivy League team in the Sweet 16 in 31 years, but after two blowouts wins as underdogs, this is serious club.

Turning to the total, the Under has been the choice play at 27-22 overall. That was accomplished in the first round with 19-14 Under mark. Games that closed over 140 were 13-11 Under, while contests that went off below 130 points were 7-6 Under.

Get started on your homework early for the next round of games beginning Thursday.

Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

Line makers tell the score for opening NCAA games

There is this person I’ve known for years, who has a regular full-time teaching job at a smaller university who is essentially a semi-professional gambler. Kendall used to bet with bookies, but once betting on the internet became an option, he moved that direction and has stayed there. His method of betting college basketball couldn’t be any more simplistic; he watches games and breaks down the line.

By breaking the line, this refers the side and total of a contest to see what the outcome should be. For example here is what the line makers are saying about the outcome of the first eight games of the NCAA Tournament. The numbers are from Bookmaker.com and because of how they fall, we can’t land exactly on the correct number and get as close as possible.

Villanova -18, 147.5 - Projected score Villanova 83-65
Richmond -2, 134.5 - Projected score Richmond 68-66
Baylor -10.5, 150 - Projected score Baylor 80-70
Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5 - Projected score Notre Dame 62-59
BYU -4.5, 146.5 - Projected score BYU 75-71
Kansas State -16, 148.5 - Projected score Kansas State 82-66
Vanderbilt -3, 141 - Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69
Butler -2.5, 130.5 - Projected score Butler 66-64

This is what the oddsmakers are telling us what the outcome of each game should be, but is this what will occur? I asked Kendall his thoughts.

“Villanova automatically is favored by 12 points because of the conference differential between the Big East and the Northeast (Conference).” He went on to add the Wildcats guards are 10 points better those from Robert Morris, but Colonials defense is better, which is two points in their favor. Robert Morris was crushed by Big East teams Syracuse (by 40) and Pittsburgh (by 24) but played better down the stretch with 5-2 record compared to Nova’s 2-5 stutter. He explained Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the other South Region matchup, Kendall sees value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells me St. Mary’s lacks the foot speed to contain the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson and he also likes David Gonzalvez, which gives them three point edge over St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Because Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are both taller that what Richmond can counter with, he gives the Gaels an edge, however because of how well the Spiders can defend in help defense, the difference is negated to smaller portion. Kendall likes Richmond to win and cover.

Kendall sees window of opportunity with Sam Houston State with the points over Baylor. “Sam Houston State is your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate (37.8 percent). They average 80 points a game (79.9) and are +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” I asked Kendall about Baylor’s outstanding numbers on offense and defense and wasn’t their talent superior? He responded this way. “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. If this is accurate and I believe it is, why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number? This is high risk, high reward bet.”

The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is seen as correct by Kendall. However he likes the total. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is Big East game, it’s not. ODU will force tempo and Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With total coming down, great value in game I see in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” accordingly to this sports bettor; however he sees opportunity in the other two afternoon clashes.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers subtly sneaked in a number on Murray State and nobody noticed but sharps. My information is most have laid low, making smaller wagers, hoping the public will back SEC team late, which will this more attractive (wager) closer to game time. Think about it, SEC vs Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding!”

Last is Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both teams play at least eight times and at different points of the season. Butler is smarter club, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a tale. If (Derrick) Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early, where does Butler turn? Caracter would have his way and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press (39 percent). If exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watch Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

Hey it's a great day this Saturday

Off a 1-2 Friday, definitely seeking improvement. The Top Trend was our lone winner and we have one that has not lost in the Big 12. In fact we have a Big 12 theme today with Best System 22-4 ATS and Kendall has his Best Bet on the board from the same conference. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I was as surprised as anybody to find the two awards I won at Cappers Monitor. Obviously I knew I was going well in CBB, yet honestly never gave it much a though otherwise. I’ll have to look further into where I’m at in the overall standings for CBB at other monitors I belong to. I don’t win at every sport, but I keep on making money, off being the champion of MLB at two different monitors last season.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Colorado off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after they allowed 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival. This is good, 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last two seasons winning by 17 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s 13-5 this week in all his plays and like Baylor to take down Texas.

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Happy Veteran's Day - We Thank You

WOW, we’re getting hammered pretty good right now, it happens. We have a hot CFB bettor who has a Free Play on tonight’s contest. Also have an 80 percent system in the NBA on an underdog. No fabulous angles today but have one for Saturday that is worth mentioning. Good Luck

New Poll Question at bottom of the page

What I learned yesterday – Tim Thomas made 27 saves to backstop the Bruins to a 3-0 win over the Penguins. It was the first time that Boston shut out the defending Stanley Cup champion since Jan. 14, 1993, when the Bruins routed Pittsburgh, 7-0, at Boston Garden. The Bruins' goaltender that night was John Blue, playing only his fourth NHL game. It was the first, and, as it turned out, only shutout of Blue's three-year NHL career.

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Free Basketball System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Milwaukee, after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system has produced winners 28 ATS of the last 35 times it has come up in the last five seasons.

Free Football Trend-2) A ton of contradictory trends going both ways in several games today, so let’s look at Saturday. The Baylor Bears are 2-14 ATS in home games vs. offensive teams scoring 37 or more points a game, losing by almost 35 per game.

Free Football Pick -3) Marty of the LCC has hit nine of last 10 CFB plays and is on Central Mich. tonight.

The Platinum Sheet has person hitting 66 percent on CFB Best Bets.

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Halloween Adventure

Nothing spooky or scary about today’s picks. The Top Trend is in the Big 12 and involves a team that doesn’t play well against good defensive teams. The Best System out there is 88.5 percent and on an unlikely team. The Free Play is from the ACC, from a LCC member who is 12-3 in CFB the last two weeks. Good Luck

NEW Feature: New Poll Question at the bottom of page.

What I thought yesterday – I knew I could count on Bill Stewart of West Virginia to lose last night. He’s becoming one of my favorite play against coaches in college football.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON A home team off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49 percent on the season. Teams like San Diego State are 23-3 ATS in this exact spot.

Free Football Trend-2) The Baylor Bears are 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent defensive teams allowing 4.25 or fewer yards per play.

Free Football Pick -3) Bill of the Left Coast Connection has Georgia Tech running to a spread cover.

Paul Buck Guaranteed CFB Winner Saturday! Tired of losing, join in on the winning parade.

The Platinum Sheet is selling out weekly the at Gambler’s Book Store in Las Vegas.

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College Football Wagering Material

An uninspired 1-2 day leaves us yearning for more. This Saturday we believe we have it what is takes, as the Top Trend continues to deliver and comes in 14-0 today. Saturday’s Best System is fabulous 19-2 ATS. Sal from the Left Coast Connection is 11-2 this week, including 4-0 yesterday in all sports and has his best college play.Good Luck.

Soap box moment- I have to my detriment defended Dick Vitale more times than I care to remember. Dicky V used to holler and scream, but he actually knew what he was talking about when finding the finer points of a particular game. Now he is compelled to share his opinions on a variety of subjects, some basketball related, some not. This week he talked about no 6-6 team should be able to play in a bowl game. While in principle I agree with Vitale, having 34 bowl games and even number of games creates issues. Hey Dicky V, why no problem with teams having losing records that make the NCAA tournament because they played well for three or four days?

Free Football System-1) PLAY ON home teams like Texas Tech off one or more straight Overs, who score more than 34 points per game, against a poor defensive team like Baylor (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games. Since 2004, this system is 19-2 ATS, 90.4 percent and has average winning margin of over 31 points.

Free Football Trend -2) The Rice Owls are 14-0 ATS in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes a game.

Free Football Selection -3) Sal of the LLC has has heated up again and is on the Florida Gators today.

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