Perspective thoughts

I’ve run out of time before the games are starting tonight to go into great depth about are the best sides and totals from 3Daily Winners, however have had good material about the NBA for today. I’d like to share an experience I had in college basketball wagering this season.

Last night’s trifling loss concluded my CBB season at 183-150, +18 SU units. (I’m dropping pushes) While I’ve had better records on a season, I’ve never been more proud of what I accomplished since on Jan. 23, I was 36-54, a +51 game turnaround.

In addition, I was down over 57 units and ended up officially +46.2 units for the year. Most satisfy. My main point is to keep working hard at whatever you do to be the best you can be. I couldn’t have been in any worse shape, but I rethought what I was doing and changed my approach, if not my methods.

While the world focuses on being No.1 because they believe that’s all that matters, the fact is persevering can be even more satisfying.

What I thought yesterday- What a game last night!

From a coaching perspective, the chess game was really a thing of beauty asboth Coach K and Stevens made a number of tactical moves that were brilliant. I don’t know if you noticed but Butler had a very clear intent to touch/foul Duke after every regular jump shot attempt. Their intent of course was to make the Blue Devils players aware they were going to be right on them and Coach K was pissed near the end of the first half about it.

Midway thru the second half, officials started to pay closer attention and called two fouls and the Bulldogs backed off.

In a world that loves the underdog, I was rooting for Duke. The amount of money I wagered was peanuts and I have not one thing against Butler, but I admire people or business’ that have built something and are able to maintain it at or near the top for long periods. (Legally of course)

If you noticed Coach K was shaking his head in disbelief that his team actually had won the national championship and I’m sure he realized in that moment, this was an improbable collection of players to win a title and it might have been his least talented team in his eight title game appearances.

While unemployment continues to run high and many others fear for their jobs because of potential cuts by employer, what must it be like to be Brad Stevens today? He’ll decide when it time to go, but what a future he’s set for himself.

Be a Betting Champion for Conference Tournaments

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Super Wednesday of College Hoops

While all the talk in college basketball is about seeds, brackets, who’s in and who’s out, the college basketball bettor is focused on one thing, what winners can I find today? Sports bettors live in two worlds, the present, trying to win, or the past, reflecting on the prior wins and losses. The former is a healthy trait, particularly when a number of consequential contests are on tap, which keep the Joe Lunardi’s of the world employed. (Note –In the world of full disclosure, Lunardi does have a real job, Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications at Saint Joseph's University and does color commentary for men's basketball team)

Luke Who?

Time to fess up, even if you are a Notre Dame fanatic, drinking the blue and gold kool-aid, the only basketball team that was going to play in the NCAA Tournament was the women’s once Luke Harangody went down. Three punch-in-the-gut losses left Notre Dame at 17-10, with ranked teams Pittsburgh and Georgetown up next, the dreaded acronym – NIT – was being used again. Yet, after suffering those defeats, senior guard Tory Jackson and sharp shooter Tim Abromaitis have taken the team on their backs and gotten other players to follow suit and all of the sudden the Irish are fighting NCAA Tournament bid.

Notre Dame (19-10, 12-10-1 ATS) isn’t necessarily a better team without Harangody, who will be honored on senior night, though is not expected to play with bone bruise on his knee. What changed is Jackson and Abromaitis decided to become more assertive and others like Tyrone Nash, Carlton Scott and seldom used Harangody look-alike Jack Cooley have followed their lead. The Fighting Irish are a confident club, fighting to be invited to the field of 65. Notre Dame has covered four of last five and is 16-3 (7-6 ATS) at home.

Standing in their way is an even more desperate team in Connecticut (17-12, 11-15-1 ATS). The Huskies have to win their last two games in the Big East and probably a couple in the postseason tournament to have chance. From a purely talent perspective, the Huskies are probably the better team, but inconsistency has plagued UConn who is 17-33 ATS on the road after consecutive home games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Notre Dame as two-point choice and they are 7-17 ATS after covering the spread over the last two seasons. Connecticut is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog and will look to derail the Irish’s hopes while enhancing their own dreams. The Huskies have won six of previous seven meetings with five covers for this 7:00 Eastern ESPN contest.

Dorothy, we are in Kansas

Coach Frank Martin might rub more than a few folks the wrong way with his barking dog delivery on the sidelines, Mike Singletary steely eyes and bluntness in describing what he sees. Let those people whine while Kansas State turns into Big 12 power and at least this year, Wildcats backers clean up. K-State is 22-4 and still harbors an outside chance to tie for conference crown and is 17-6 against the spread. The last time Kansas State was ranked fifth in the country was 42 years ago, when their coach was Tex Winter (accredited for the triangle offense) and Lakers coach Phil Jackson was 13 years old. Kansas State is 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game this season.

Martin has shown to be an “everything” person, he wants to win the Big 12, win the national championship and whatever else he can accomplish. To have a chance, his club must beat Kansas (27-2, 10-15-1 ATS) in Lawrence.

The Jayhawks were removed from No. 1 perch losing at Oklahoma State four days ago and will seek to reestablish themselves quickly against in-state rival. This game will be rock, chalk, jayhawk full of emotion for guard Sherron Collins. The senior leader will be making his final appearance at Allen Fieldhouse and will want to maintain Kansas’ 58-game home winning streak, the longest in the country. Kansas is 12-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

The Jayhawks are a nine-point favorite, with total of 149.5 and are 11-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game and are 7-1 UNDER playing only their second tilt in eight days. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 contests and 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.

ACC title on the line

The Atlantic Coast Conference has not received its usual acclaim this season, with North Carolina plummeting to unforeseen depths and many others being merely pedestrian. Duke and Maryland have managed to stay above the mediocrity and will battle in an important ACC clash.

Maryland (21-7, 14-9 ATS) is a game behind Duke in the standings and jacked-up for senior night. The Terrapins fans will salute seniors Landon Milbourne, Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes.

“In the beginning of year, when I looked at the schedule and saw Duke on Senior Night, I got pretty excited,” Milbourne said Tuesday. “Now, it’s even bigger because we’re fighting for the regular-season title. We’ve been trying to get this chance since I’ve been here, and it’s finally here.” The Terps have won five consecutive games, 11 of 13 and are 14-4 ATS at home off three straight wins against ACC rivals.

It’s difficult to fathom, but only in the last week or two has Duke (25-4, 17-10-1 ATS) been really considered in the hierarchy of college basketball this season. Perceptions are hard to break and the Blue Devils have been an overrated team the last few years. This team is different, with production in the paint, a +5 rebound margin and positive contributions coming off the bench. Duke isn’t going to win if two if their big three have off-nights (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler), however they have found the answer when one of the trio hasn’t been in top form regularly. Duke is 9-0 ATS versus high-powered offensive teams dropping 77 or more points a game this season.

The Dukies are a short one-point favorite at the sold-out Comcast Center, with total of 146.5. Duke is 17-7 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite, which they were at Virginia (67-49) and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less. Coach Gary Williams might need two suits the way he perspires, yet he has to like his club’s chances since they are 17-6 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread.

This is the late game on ESPN and the Blue Devils have taken last five (4-0-1 ATS) during the regular season and are 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at College Park the last dozen years.

Two Big East teams in need of W

After 25 games, the only question remaining for Syracuse was would they be the top seed in the East Region when the NCAA bids come out in just over three weeks? Despite suffering just their second loss of the year this past Sunday, now they might not even be in first place in their conference this upcoming weekend with another defeat. And what about Georgetown, whose as reliable as Toyota these days. College basketball in February, the bettors dream and nightmare all rolled into one.

Maybe the Orangemen (24-2, 15-7 ATS) were due for a flat outing like they suffered at home to Louisville, losing 66-60 as seven-point favorites. Save about seven total minutes, Syracuse players looked like zombies, going through the motions.

They have played similar to this of late with 3-4 ATS mark, winning games in the last five minutes, until they finally got burned. The Orangemen can still play, inside or out and their 2-3 zone is the most active coach Jim Boeheim has had in years. With the tenacity of the Big East, fouls are inevitable and Syracuse has a bench, with Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph and Mookie Jones in particular making immediate contributions for a team already loaded. The ‘Cuse is 13-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season.

A closer look reveals Wesley Johnson doesn’t appear to be completely healthy from a couple of spills this month (10-35 shooting) and his game has lacked the explosiveness seen earlier. With opponents taking a wait and see attitude with Johnson, they’ve been shadowing Andy Rautins more and his shooting has been off and Syracuse guards have been less inclined to dump the ball down to the big guys in the paint. Add it up and team averaging 80.8 points per game, has scored 72 or less in four of last five.

Coach John Thompson III has tried to develop a bench, with no success. Yes, sophomore guard Jesse Clark continues to improve and Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS) might well become a very treacherous club to play in March with Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright the principle scorers. Clark would make the Hoyas almost impossible to guard, likely giving them at least three bonafide scorers each contest with a fourth possible almost any time.

The conundrum arises when two of guys are off their game, who does Thompson turn to. Of course he’s going to say his players know they have to play heavy minutes and it’s not a big deal. What are his options? Admit he could be a little less stern and have fewer players transfer or fess up his recruiting efforts haven’t been as good as other top level programs, he lives in Washington D.C. for goodness sake, why be completely honest when hardly anyone else in town is. Georgetown is 9-24 ATS at home after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Though the Hoyas haven’t won three in a row since Jan. 3, they haven’t lost two in a row either and are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS off a loss, returning home after being upset by Rutgers 71-68 as 10.5-point favorites. In fact, G-Town is sensational 8-0 SU after failing to cover with 6-1 ATS record.

Bookmaker.com has the Hoyas as two-point favorites for this Big East battle and Georgetown is 9-22 ATS in last 31 conference clashes and Syracuse 9-0 and 8-1 ATS away from the Carrier Dome this season.

These are two universities that helped make the Big East Conference nationally known in basketball and they have played oodles of memorable contests. The Jan. 25 meeting was noteworthy for its unusualness. The Hoyas opened up a 14-0 lead and slattern away the good fortune, being outscored 73-41 from that point forward.

This is part of ESPN2 Thursday Showcase, with the SU winner 14-2 ATS since 2000 in the regular season.