Reviewing the Friday Early Line Moves

The wagering public has had more time to dissect the Friday numbers and they have come up with interesting choices on the Friday afternoon or morning matchups depending on one’s time zone. What did these people see that maybe you didn’t or what do you know something they don’t?

The one contest the public felt the strongest about is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. At DonBest.com, they show this game opening at 129.5 and have seen it be in free fall down to 125. The reasoning for is not readily apparent, at least by how each team plays. Texas A&M averages just over 133 total points per game and 129.6 points away from College Station. Utah State is over 136 total points in all games they have played and even higher on the road at 139 exactly.

The general tendency would be to believe the pace will be slowed down for a tournament tilt and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive losses. Both are good defensive squads, thus it will be curious to see what occurs.

The Purdue and Siena contest, which will be the first game in Spokane, figured to have movement at least in one direction. All week people have been talking about the Boilermakers lopsided loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney and they will face a veteran Siena team that knocked off higher-seeded teams in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Purdue opened as five-point favorites and have fallen to four at Sportsbook.com and most other wagering outlets.
Even before Robbie Hummel’s season ending injury, Purdue was not a good wager and is 2-11 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena figures to be more focused than they were in MAAC champion game where they had to overcome huge deficit to win over Fairfield 72-65 to survive as nine-point favorites. On the years, the Saints are holier than thou 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread.

The total on this 4 vs. 13 encounter has fallen 1.5-points to 130 and this seems a little less certain. If Siena is really ready to pull the upset, the number coming down is justified, as the Saints are 11-4 UNDER having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. However, the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER in road games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.

Many have no idea who Oakland U. is (Summit League champions) and even fewer would know where they are from (Rochester, MI). The Golden Grizzlies are veteran bunch, with two seniors and three juniors in the starting lineup, making their second NCAA appearance in three years. Oakland U. averages 76.8 points per game and the contests they have played that had oddsmakers numbers, they are 10-4 OVER. Why than is the total headed downward against third-seeded Pittsburgh?

Three factors are in play. The Golden Grizzlies played four teams in this tournament, averaging just 54.5 points a contest. The Panthers of Pitt hold opposing teams to 40 percent shooting and neutral court teams off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog like Oakland, in a game involving two teams with win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.

The Cornell story is ideal for the Cinderella in March, their misfortune, at least on the surface is drawing one of the hottest teams in the tournament in Temple. The Owls have flown to 10 consecutive wins (8-2 ATS) in being the A-10 champions for the third year in a row. This doesn’t stop the Big Red from having a chance to pull the upset and lines are trending towards university from Ithaca, NY. No one is going to confuse the Ivy League with the Atlantic 10, especially this season. Yet this isn’t your grandpa’s Cornell club. The Big Red shoot the ball expertly (48.1 percent) and drain the three-ball at 43.4 percent rate. They also have a rarity, a 7’0 center in Jeff Foote, who’s a solid player.

No question Temple deserves all the accolades coming their way, however one aspect deserves a further look. In common opponents this season, Cornell is 5-3 SU & ATS, with +2.9 scoring margin. The Owls against these same opponents are 7-2, with 4-5 ATS record and score differential of +5.9. The public might be on to something.

Missouri and Clemson are essentially mere images of one another, pressing teams that love to force turnovers and disrupt opponents into numerous miscues. Mizzou has veterans from last year’s Elite 8 club and they force 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per contest, leading the nation in both categories. The Tigers of Clemson are ninth in the country in steals at 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri also is not afraid to launch the three ball either, making eight of their own an outing.

The total opened at 138 and is up 2.5-points. With both teams ability to force turnovers, that usually leads to points. Each has faced a pressing defense in practice all season and should know how to attack once they break the press, taking the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in last 11 NCAA battles and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.

Thursday's Stuff

We were 2-1 on Tuesday and have an 81.1 percent system in the WAC. The Big 12 gives us perfect trend and Kendall looks to keep piling up winners with Top Play. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today- How in some ways this basketball is better than the NCAA Tournament, because of what happens.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against favorites of 10 or more points like Utah State after nine or more consecutive wins, with a win percentage over 80 percent, playing a marginal losing team 40% to 49%. This totals up to 45-10 ATS, 81.8 percent, with an 8-1 mark this season.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Kansas State is 10-0 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 37-15 in last 52 plays and is backing Texas A&M as top play.

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Boise State Seeks Televised Blowout

Boise State continues its quest for perfection, playing its final road game of 2009. The Broncos failed to impress two weeks ago at Louisiana Tech in televised tilt and their impressive win over Idaho was largely seen as highlights. Boise State needs gigantic blowout and to keep winning to set up possible Fiesta Bowl date.

That is not a sure thing either, since it looks like TCU, who is two spots ahead of the Broncos in the latest BCS ratings, is also going to be undefeated this season. That places Boise State in at-large pool and no non-BCS team has ever been selected as an at-large team. With some luck of other teams losing and truly impressive wins in last three WAC contests, they still have a chance.

This Boise State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) team is different than their predecessors, oh sure the 43.6 points per game is impressive, however this team has a formidable defense. Coach Chris Peterson has assembled a hard working crew that runs to the football and to borrow from ESPN analyst Chris Speilman “arrives with bad intentions”. They are ranked 12th in total defense at 295.8 yards per game and are 8-1 ATS after six or more consecutive straight up wins over the last two seasons. On the season they have forced 27 turnovers.

Quarterback Kellen Moore leads the nation in pass efficiency, touchdown passes and touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 32 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Moore and tailback Jeremy Avery also helped Boise State solve red zone problems they had until recently. With Utah State 106th in the county in total defense, allowing 435.9 yards per game, the Broncos are 7-0 ATS when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since last year.

Utah State’s record (3-7) doesn’t reflect a general improvement under first year coach Gary Anderson; however they have been much more competitive. This is authenticated by the fact the Aggies are 7-3 against the oddsmakers in 2009.

Romney Stadium should be packed for this nationally televised cable contest and coach Anderson knows a thing or two about the spotlight, having been the defensive coordinator at Utah last year when his team ousted Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

“I think it is big for us regardless of the outcome of the game. We are on national television. I remember going through this at Utah where our helmet wasn’t known. Now it is,” Andersen said. “Boise State was the same way at one point. It is not that way anymore. That is where we are at. We will take that national stage anyway we can.” Utah State is 8-1 ATS in home lined games over the last two seasons.

Junior QB Diondre Borel has led efficient attack that averages 33 points per game at home and like Moore; he doesn’t give the ball away, with only three picks. He helped lead USU to 24-9 win over San Jose State at home last week and they are 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home since 2007.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State as 23.5-point favorites, with a total of 61. The Broncos are 31-11 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and 38-12 ATS off two straight wins over WAC opponent. This might be the wrong contest to show the strides Utah State has made since they are 0-8, 0-7-1 ATS against the Broncos. They have lost last four games by 49-11 average score.

But that doesn’t mean Utah State won’t be psyched. “We are all excited, especially the seniors. We haven’t really thought about it being senior night. It is just another game we have to prepare for,” USU senior linebacker Adrian Bybee said. “It is our last home game and we want to keep our home record strong. We want to finish up with a 4-1 record at home. That is something, as seniors, that we can be proud of. That is what we are preparing for.”

A sharp Utah State media relations person found the Aggies have won six of last seven SU on November 20. Nevertheless, Utah State is 0-25 vs Top 25 teams the last 18 years and has lost its last 15 non-Saturday encounters.

The excitement starts 9:30 Eastern on ESPN2.

Value Plays from System in NCAA Tourney

With the March Madness now upon us, it is time to prepare your self for the first round of hoops wagering action. With half the tournament played out in the first two days, you are presented with your best opportunity to profit significantly. Many people have different ways they use to select winners; here is another method I’ve used that has allowed me to win 13 times in the last 16 years in the first round.

What I have done for years is find the records of all D-1 schools exactly one month before the bids are announced. This year that would be the games played through February 15. This is the center piece of future action. Once the bids are announced, that’s when it is time to go into action.

Compare the records of the teams that made the tourney from a month ago versus what they are now that they are goin’ dancin’. Take their previous position in their league standings and once again compare them to what they were when the regular season ended. Lastly, we want to know where they finished in their conference tourney. Let me show you what this should look like:

Purdue 19-5 25-9 6-3 3rd 2nd 1st
No. Iowa 18-8 23-10 5-2 1st 1st 1st

In the example, both teams played pretty well in the last month of the season. Because of how the Big Ten played out at the end of the year, Purdue moved up one spot in the conference standings during the regular season and played very well in winning conference tournament. Northern Iowa was a persistent performer, finishing first in all categories as Missouri Valley Conference champions.

Moving on, what we are seeking is potential value with underdogs that can cover spreads and win outright. If two teams have played well to close the season like North Carolina (5-2) and Radford (6-1), this would not qualify as a play. The same would be true if they were ordinary to close the season. Texas (5-4) and Minnesota (3-4) would fit this criterion. What were searching for are contrasts, one team on uptick and the other apparently fading.

Here is an example of the type of situation we are looking for:

Utah 18-7 24-9 6-2 1st 1st 1st
Arizona 18-8 19-13 1-5 5th 6th Lost Quarters

Utah was unchanging in playing in a descent league, staying the course and finishing first in all three categories, including playing well to close the year. Arizona despite having three potential NBA players was extremely unimpressive to finish the year. Many in the media like Arizona because of their talent, which is a legitimate argument; however if a team is not playing well against one that is, you have to at the very least take that into consideration.

Another winning situation involving this method would be a mid-major conference team and a school from a large conference.

Marquette 21-4 24-9 3-5 2nd 5th Lost Quarters
Utah State 24-2 30-4 6-2 1st 1st 1st

The Golden Eagles lost one of their main components in Dominic James, when he broke a bone in his foot. Though Marquette has gamely played on, they are not the same team without their point guard and not enough scoring or defensive pressure has been forthcoming off the bench. Utah State is out of the WAC and works diligently to take good shots, accounting for 49.8 percent mark from the field and 39.8 percent from behind the arc. The Aggies have held opposing teams to 62.1 points per game on the season and could have a chance to pull the upset.

In my sixteen years of using this system, I have had only three losing opening rounds, one being last year. What caused last year’s failure was the lack of upsets, which was later bore out as all the top seeds went to the Final Four since the field was changed to 64.

My belief is that will change this year, when examining history, Memphis is the only team with a minimum of three losses. The last time this many tournament teams had as many losses in the higher seeds was exactly 70 years ago, 1939.

Without further ado, here are the teams that could be spread winners in the first round based on this system. – Utah, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Temple, Morgan State and USC. (Note- Alabama State technically qualifies, but leery about play-in game).

Taking Home the Money College Basketball Totals

For many sports bettors, college basketball totals take on Forrest Gump-ish quality, as they are like a box of chocolates, but after studying all the sides most days, it’s hard to choose which games to play. Many sports bettors are more comfortable staying within the realm of what they know, which seldom includes college basketball totals.

Oddsmakers also are not as comfortable putting out totals on these games, as you will notice they usually arrive mid-morning on the day of the games, after releasing the side action in the late afternoon the day before. There is a good reason for this; “sharps” know the best value in college basketball wagering is on totals, because that is where the most potential errors can occur, especially on deep, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday cards. Those setting the numbers want to limit their exposure to these players, reducing the time they can cherry pick miscues, thus protecting themselves as best they.

How can somebody be successful betting college totals, you have to be ready to stay away from the glimmer of the big conferences, focus your attention on the smaller leagues, where these types of teams are more likely to pop up and oddsmakers pay lesser attention to, since they are wagered on accordingly. Here is a look at some of the very best teams every college basketball bettor should be looking at. (The focus will be on teams that have played more than half the games with a posted total)

For those who prefer to play Over the total, Ohio U (8-6, 6-5 ATS) is about as good as you could want with 7-2-1 mark. It’s a fairly remarkable team without much size or a bench, playing primarily in a league not known for scoring, yet is climbing over the total. Most of their winning numbers have come out of MAC play, thus it is worth watching to notice if the Bobcats can keep on delivering in conference action.

The Manhattan Jaspers (9-7, 5-5 ATS) out of the MAAC are 7-2 OVER, after winning just 12 games last season. It appears oddsmakers have been slow to adjust, since Manhattan has been the talk of the conference as an immensely improved team. What impresses people is how hard they play and even in defeat, they keep playing the whole 40 minutes, giving total players a chance. Off a loss the Jaspers are 4-1 Over.

LaSalle (8-6, 4-4-1 ATS) is part of the “Big 5” universities in Philadelphia area and has been a moneymaker for those watching totals with 7-2 mark, favoring the higher numbers. The Explorers defense is run of the mill, allowing 69.2 points per game on 42.4 percent. Offensively they do a good job, in scoring 72.5 points per game and averaging better than 10 offensive rebounds a contest, which helps push them Over the total. Like Manhattan, LaSalle has been a solid play off a loss at 4-0 Over, scoring 77 PPG.

One team that is no stranger to total players is Long Beach State. The 49ers (9-7, 10-6 ATS) have changed coaches from their 90+ point days, yet are still leaping over numbers 75 percent of the time with a 9-3 Over mark. L.B. State still moves the ball up and down the floor in averaging 72. 4 points an outing, but where they really are a good play is the utter of lack defense they don’t play, particularly on the road where they give up 75.8 PPG. When the 49ers travel to a team that has even a semblance of offense, the Over has to be the play.

On the other end of the spectrum is the dark side, where supposedly only those in the know play totals on the Under. Handicappers and linemakers have been selling us for years about “squares” only being on the Over and while some validity still holds true to that belief, the marketplace is far more knowledgeable, with greater access to information, making that point less trustworthy then in the past.

Any basketball bettor knows Utah State (15-1, 7-4 ATS) is a perennial player in the WAC title chase and makes frequent visits to the Top 25. The Aggies play stingy defense (59.6 PPG) and take their time on offense under coach Stew Morrill, always looking for a high percentage shot. Utah State’s effective controlled style, bothers opposing teams and the Aggies at 9-2 UNDER is not a shocker for interested bettors.

San Diego is know for its beautiful year round climate, seldom too hot or too cold and this basketball season is known for having two schools that favor one side of the totals action. San Diego State returned five starters and the results have been even better than expected with 12-3 mark (8-4 ATS). This veteran Aztec club does not have a player taller than 6’8, nonetheless, they can bang in the paint with taller opponents and play solid help-position defense that forces teams to connect from the perimeter. Opposing squads are only at 40.9 percent against coach Steve Fisher’s team, scoring 55.7 PPG. The Aztecs are a cash-machine 8-2 UNDER.

Not far away is the San Diego University campus and the Toreros are right in the same area as their counterparts at 11-3 UNDER. San Diego (10-7, 8-6 ATS) was believed to be a contender in the West Coast Conference, but they lost three key components in all-conference guard Brandon Johnson (for the season), plus Trumaine Johnson and De'Jon Jackson have only recently returned. The offense really suffered without this trio, with San Diego starting 4-6. With the latter Johnson back with Jackson, all-WCC performer Gyno Pomare has stepped up his scoring and the Toreros offense is a threat again. Their defense still playing well, suggesting the Under’s should keep on coming.

Following and playing totals does take time and effort, yet knowing where to start with the correct teams can be profitable right from the outset.