Betting On Kentucky and Notre Dame, Just Like the Old Days

About a hundred years ago when Digger Phelps was famous for being Notre Dame’s basketball coach and Joe B. Hall was living with the daily pressure of being the coach replacing legendary Adolph Rupp in Kentucky, the Fighting Irish and the Wildcats meant something. Big Blue almost always beat Notre Dame, but it was rare opportunity for fans of the South Bend University to be in a true underdog role, since the football team was national power and basketball team was annually Top 20 material. (I said it was a hundred years ago)

Back in those days, no cell phones, no texting and no online betting, just call your man at the prescribed time and ask for the numbers about the games you were interested in. If he had a hint you liked or disliked a certain team from previous conversations, add or subtract two to three points to what side you wanted and if you complained, he would say, “Hey everybody is betting your side, I got to move the number to balance the action.”

That was a long time ago, now Kentucky and Notre Dame are not basketball powers, they are playing in the quarterfinals of the NIT, with the winner advancing to New York next week for semi-finals. With these schools, the chant “We’re No. 66” doesn’t hold the same value as making the NCAA Tournament.

Though coaches Mike Brey and Billy Gillespie are finding the seats they place their posterior a little warmer these days, the reality is this is where their teams are, so might as well win what’s available as opposed to nothing at all.

Betjamica.com has Notre Dame as shaky 2.5-point favorites, with a rising total of 144.5. The Irish are 14-3 and 5-7 ATS at the Joyce Center. Though they have recognizable faces like Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney, this Notre Dame team has been on everyone’s short list of fade teams. While it is true the Blue and Gold have beaten three Top 10 teams, they are 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Notre Dame has won two tight games in the NIT and should expect another against Kentucky, who is 9-7 and 9-6 ATS on the road.

Coach Gillespie stated this week he doesn’t have time to worry about people calling for his ouster in Lexington; however that is like saying the people who received bonuses from AIG don’t feel like they are under scrutiny. Gillespie happens to be the coach that watched a streak of 17 consecutive seasons of playing in the NCAA Tournament snapped at Kentucky.

The Wildcats has two future NBA players in Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson, with the rest of players more resembling the guys from the Alltel commercials. Most of Kentucky’s betting success comes from prior years like 47-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. (2-3 ATS this season) At least they have covered their last four non-conference games and have owned the Irish with 4-0 SU and ATS record over the last dozen seasons.

ESPN2 has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern, with the winner facing Penn State next week at Madison Square Garden.

Notre Dame Needs to have Fight at South Bend

Notre Dame was left for dead (playing in the NIT) after not even being competitive at UCLA, losing their seventh straight game, being blistered by the Bruins 89-63 on Feb. 7. After being ranked in the Top 10, the fall from the hierarchy of college basketball was complete. The Irish players had little fight on the west coast and their body language suggested the squad had lost complete confidence and was feeling sorry for itself. Without going into details, coach Mike Brey said he challenged his team to see if they could still be good enough to earn a NCAA tournament berth. While the world had written off Notre Dame, they found confidence and courage.

It started five days later at home against highly ranked Louisville in the Joyce Center, where the team that had looked so impressive in late November remerged. Notre Dame made the Cardinals look like DePaul, in steamrolling them 90-57. Suddenly, somebody besides Luke Harangody was making shots. Kyle McAlarney stopped forcing off-balance heaves, Ryan Ayers found the bottom of the net instead of clanging the rim with his attempts and Tory Jackson started attacking the basket again.

Notre Dame is 16-12 (8-15 ATS) having won four of last six and their loss at Connecticut, whom they essentially played even with for 38 minutes, probably earned respect among voters on the Huskies Senior Day. With two more wins, they are at the presumed magic number of .500 in the Big East to at least give themselves a chance for bid.

The Irish return home where they are 11-2 (3-5 ATS) to take on Villanova (23-6, 14-11 ATS). Both the Wildcats and Notre Dame are playing the dreaded Saturday-Monday Big East turnaround and the Irish are one of only two teams that have had this schedule four times in the league. Harangody and his teammates are 4-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season and are the only team in the Big East that has played at Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Louisville and at Syracuse. “You have to take it into consideration," Harangody said.

Don’t expect Villanova to be pleased coming into South Bend. The Wildcats still have visions of earning a first round bye in next week’s conference tournament, but those aspirations took a monster hit after shooting a season a low 33.3 percent, in shocking 56-54 home loss to Georgetown, who had lost nine of previous contests.

"I thought we played hard but we didn't execute and didn't adjust to their defense, “ coach Jay Wright said. "They played better. They knew our personnel and did a great job of playing our personnel and executing their game plan." Villanova could still finish fourth and earn the double bye into the quarterfinals; however two wins and a numbers of events would have to go perfectly for them. After converting just 3 of 16 three-point shots, ‘Nova is 21-8 ATS after a game where they made 20 percent or less beyond the arc.

Bookmaker.com has Notre Dame as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 159. Villanova would seem to have no problem playing in a high scoring affair and are 6-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game in the second half of this season. The Irish are not nearly on as solid a footing with 4-8 ATS record as a favorite (8-4 SU) and 1-5 against the spread off a cover.

This is the last Big Monday of the year on ESPN and Scottie Reynolds is key for Villanova. He was 2 for 10 against the Hoyas, for a dozen points. When he scores 18 or more points, the ‘Cats are perfect 9-0.

The action starts at 7 Eastern and both teams need a win if they hope to accomplish their goals.

Fighting Irish favored in challenging spot vs Marquette

Notre Dame had the nation’s longest home winning streak snapped at 45 games by Connecticut and has to turned around in less then 48 hours and try and prevent a two game losing streak at the Joyce Center in South Bend. They will have the unenviable task of having to be defeat long time rival Marquette, who has unblemished record in Big East action. The Fighting Irish have lost six of last nine to the Golden Eagles, with just three covers.

What has hurt the Irish (12-6, 5-8 ATS) is two important elements. Last season Notre Dame played above average switching defenses in holding opponents to 41.1 percent shooting. With virtually the same cast back, teams are now converting on 43 percent of shot attempts.

On offense, Notre Dame has two options and little else. Potential Big East player of the year could be Luke Harangody again, who has a vast array of ways to score points. Outside, guard Kyle McAlarney is their only true threat these days and when he is 3 for 15 like he was against UConn, coach Mike Brey has few options to turn to. Starters Tory Jackson, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland have not been consistent performers in Big East play and have often been left alone for open shots they fail continue to make. The bench has failed to supplement the starters, as Luke Zeller and Jonathan Peoples have provided little else than giving players rest. The Irish are just 1-5-1 ATS in last seven Monday assignments.

For Marquette (17-2, 7-6-1 ATS), no problems finding points from their lineup. The terrific trio of Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal and Dominic James are thriving as veteran players. Coach Buzz Williams is having an exceptional debut as head coach as his team has won nine in a row (5-2-1 ATS), having the poise to be patient when situations are tenuous. Any of the guards are capable of taking over a game when needed and a fourth reliable element has emerged making the Golden Eagles all but unbeatable of late.

Lazar Hayward may be an undersized power forward at 6’6; nonetheless he is a big time talent. Hayward scores 16.5 points per game and drops 39.2 percent of shots beyond the arc; placing opposing defenses in a real jam who to focus on. It’s no wonder Marquette is 10-4 ATS on the road.

Bookmaker.com has opened Notre Dame as 3-point favorites and it is crystal clear who the linemakers believe is the better team by the spread. Marquette takes care of the ball and is 22-10 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers and is 9-3 against the spread if the home team has a 60 percent or higher home win percentage.

Irish players know what’s at stake, “(Three) losses in a row in the Big East, that’s what everyone’s focusing on right now in this locker room,” said McAlarney. “We need to win.” Notre Dame is 14th in conference in points allowed at 70.1 and must do a better job defensively. The Domers are miserable 0-6 ATS vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game after 15 contests on the year.

This is the opener on Big Monday on ESPN starting at 7 Eastern and Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS off three straight losses against conference rivals.

Big Monday Opener on ESPN

It might be possible Louisville is hitting its stride, after a topsy-turvy December. The Cardinals swept a pair of Big East road games at South Florida and Villanova, covering the spread in each instance. In both cases, Rick Pitino’s club showed courage, taking opponents best shot late and found a way to hang in their. After playing in a real defensive grinder against ‘Nova, the high octane Fighting Irish, with reigning conference play of the year Luke Harangody, is paying a visit.

In Saturday’s 61-60 win over then-No. 18 Villanova, Terrence Williams scored on a drive with 7.4 seconds remaining to put Louisville ahead for good, just barely. The Wildcats then missed two free throws with 4.9 seconds left and two shots under the basket in the final seconds. While it might have been a heart-stopper for fans, coach Pitino said, “A typical Big East game”.
Louisville (11-3, 7-7 ATS) will have to rely on its in your face defense that allows just 38 percent of shots made. Forward Earl Clark and Williams are finding their shooting eye, though guard Edgar Sosa is still extremely inconsistent. The Cardinals continue to be a covering machine in Big East battles, with 15-5 ATS record and are 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference member.

Notre Dame (12-3, 5-5 ATS) may have the nation’s longest home winning streak, however, if they really want to make a name for themselves, a triumph over Loo-ville takes them from a good Big East team to serious contender. In order for the Irish to pull the upset, they will have to tighten up the defense. For the season, Mike Brey’s squad is run of the mill 42.3 percent, however in four conference conflicts; teams are making 47.3 percent against Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish score 82.2 points per game and thrive on draining the three- ball with regularity. They average nine per game, making 41.3 percent, which is fourth in the country. Notre Dame never threatened to cover the spread Saturday against Seton Hall, winning 88-79 as 15-point home chalk. The Irish are 20-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last three seasons.

The Cards are 8-1 and 5-4 ATS at Freedom Hall this season and Bookmaker.com has them as 6.5-point favorites. Off Saturday’s close call, Louisville might not be in ideal position, being 6-19 ATS in home games after a win by six points or less. Notre Dame is 4-3 and 3-4 ATS as the visitor, yet has thrived as road underdog or pick role under coach Brey with 36-15 ATS record.

These teams have met just twice since Louisville joined the Big East, with the Cardinals winning both and the Irish covering the number each time. ESPN starts Big Monday officially with this Big East bash at 7 Eastern.