Big 12 Preview

b>2010 BIG 12 CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com

They gained notoriety as the ‘Sure We Cheat’ (SWC) league in the 1970’s. They then evolved into the Big 8 Conference before expanding into the Big 12. Where they go from here, no one knows.

What we know for sure is the Big 12 Conference is back for another college football season in 2010. And we can also likely expect another lackluster performance from this loop come bowl time.

Granted, Texas made it to the BCS championship game last year, a game in which Oklahoma has made four appearances this past decade. But the truth of the matter is unless the Big12 can improve on its blasé 39-38 SU and 32-45 ATS mark in bowl games since 2000, they will likely go down as another also-ran major conference that continues to shoot itself in the foot thanks to lackluster play on the defensive side of the ball.

In closing, despite the defensive deficiencies of the rest of the conference, beware of the Sooners. Other than the game with Texas, they figure to be double-digit favorites in every other contest this season. Remember, the last time Bob Stoops lost five games in the same season his team went on to go 13-0 and win a national championship (2000).

Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2010 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

North Division

COLORADO – *9 / 7

TEAM THEME: ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
When a coach goes just 10-22 in league play and his team finishes LAST in total conference offense two years running, one would figure a coaching change is in order. Not in Boulder. The Buffaloes rehired Dan Hawkins because they could not afford the cost of a buyout and a rehire. Talk about a sign of the times! The only team in the Big 12 not to use a spread offense, Colorado will turn to an offensive line that returns all five starters. A soft seven-game home schedule, only four true road games, revenge aplenty and an over-abundance of playing time for true freshman over the last three seasons, could actually find the Buffaloes roaming in a minor bowl. If not, the only sign you may see around the Boulder area is one that says ‘For Sale’ – no matter what the cost.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas (11/6)

IOWA STATE – *8 / 5

TEAM THEME: PEEPING PAUL
When newly-hired HC Paul Rhoads first met with the team, he told them that they were going to win a bowl game in 2009. Did Paul see something nobody else did? After all, the Cyclones had gone 2-10 in 2008 and had not won a bowl game since 2004. Despite an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in 2009, Rhoads was true to his word as an Insight Bowl victory over Minnesota capped off a surprising 7-6 season. The offensive numbers should improve in 2010 as eight starters return to Ames, including QB Austen Arnuad. Defensively, only five starters are back in the mix but the linebacking unit – the strength of the defense – returns three starters including tackling machine, Jesse Smith. Here’s some scholarly advice for Rhoads: with nine winning teams and eight bowlers on the docket, we suggest you take a long look at the schedule before making any promises.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (11/6)

KANSAS – 8 / 7

TEAM THEME: WEIGHT AND SEE
After a mistreatment allegation, the big man has left the campus as Mark Mangino’s eight-year stint in Lawrence comes to an abrupt end. New HC Turner Gill knows he’ll have some big pants to fill and the former Nebraska star will bring along some heavy-hitting coordinators in Chuck Long and Carl Torbush. Star QB Todd Reesing and his 11,194 total yards and 90 TD’s have also departed. Not to worry. Gill turned a dormant Buffalo program into a conference champion in three years. Imagine what he could do with a team that has won 25 games over the past three seasons and returns 15 starters, including an entire offensive line. We realize the Big 12 is a large leap from the MAC but we also recall that Gill is a perfect 20-0 versus the conference in his playing days as a star QB. Been there – done that!
PASS

KANSAS STATE – 5 / 7

TEAM THEME: PHASE TWO, YEAR TWO
Kansas State’s silver-haired HC Bill Snyder proved age is only a number when he guided the 2009 Wildcats to bowl-eligible status. After a 3-year hiatus, the 70-year old Snyder returned to the Manhattan sidelines and looked to shore up a defense that was scorched for over 36 PPG, 479 YPG and 5.2 YPC the previous season. And shore up he did. The ‘Cats held seven opponents to under 20 points as the defense improved by 13 PPG and an incredible 139 YPG while allowing just 3.5 YPC. The combination of a now well-fortified defense (seven returning starters), a top-notch RB in Daniel Thomas (the Big 12 newcomer of the year) and a favorable early schedule (first true road game not until mid-October) holds promise for 2010. Old habits never die.
PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma St (10/30)

MISSOURI – *8 / 8

TEAM THEME: CAT SCRATCH FEVER
Expect a big year from Missouri in 2010. Many believe that following their breakout season in 2007 (12-2), Gary Pinkel recruited a slew of talent – and that investment is about to pay some dividends. Not only do the Tigers return eight starters on each side of the ball, but 30 of the 44 players on the season-ending two-deep roster were either freshmen or sophomores – the second most in the nation last year. A season opening five-game schedule that includes three home games against FBS foes with a combined 8-28 record, a fourth home game against McNeese State and a neutral site match-up with 3-9 Illinois, should help these Tigers catch their tail early. If the Cats are going to have the year we think they’ll have, a 5-0 start is critical with only two of the season’s final seven games at home, including trips to Lincoln and Lubbock. Nonetheless, we’ll take the bait.
PLAY ON: vs. Nebraska (10/30)

NEBRASKA – *10 / 7

TEAM THEME: TWO YEARS GONE BY
Have the Huskers turned the corner? Bearing in mind they ranked No. 116 in scoring defense in 2007 (37.9 PPG) – the year before HC Bo Pelini arrived – and No. 1 last season (10.4 PPG), the answer is a resounding yes. Also consider they were 1-20 SU versus Top 20 ranked teams before a promising 3-2 showing last season. The former NFL assistant also has the Kids of the Corn playing their best ball late in the season, posting a stout 9-2 record from November out, including 7-1 in November alone (Bill’s Callahan’s previous 4-year regime only won a total of six November contests). 17 returning starters, with every ball carrier back in the mix and a favorable schedule that includes Texas at home and is sans Oklahoma, makes Nebraska worthy of a BCS futures play. Is that Springsteen’s ‘Glory Days’ we hear playing in those Lincoln cornfields?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado (11/26)

South Division

BAYLOR – *7 / 5

TEAM THEME: LET’S GET PHYSICAL
Perhaps no team in the land figures to benefit more from the return of a key player from injury than Baylor, as star QB Robert Griffin III re-claims his starting spot after tearing an ACL in Game Three last season. After a promising 2-1 start, the Bears went into hibernation (2-7) when Griffin went down to stay. HC Art Briles, however, has more than the return of his star on his mind as he looks to address a defense that allowed over 400 YPG in 2009. After the spring game, Briles noted, “Those guys are strong, fast, mean and tough… that’s what they need to be. They need to be aggressive and physical with a bad temper. That’s what we have to get to and that’s the way we have to play, because in the Big 12 South if you’re friendly and nice, you’re going to have a long season.” If RG3 can stay healthy and Briles can impose his will, these Bears will be anything but average.
PASS

OKLAHOMA – *10 / 6

TEAM THEME: KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES
Despite losing three players in the first four picks of this year’s NFL draft – including Heisman trophy winner and all-time NCAA passing efficiency leader Sam Bradford – 23 full or part-time starters return. Included is SO QB Landry Jones, who led the nation’s freshman QBs in passing yards (3,198) and TD passes (26) last season. His yardage figure was also an OU record, breaking the mark set by Bradford in 2007. Expect Jones to surpass those numbers this season as all-everything RB DeMarco Murray and record-setting WR Ryan Broyles stay onboard the Sooner Schooner in 2010. Whether by land or air, the OU attack shouldn’t miss a beat as Jones and company figure to keep up with the Bradfords. Remember, OU faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the land in 2009 and four of its five losses were by a total of 12 points.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas Tech (11/13)

OKLAHOMA STATE – 6 / 4

TEAM THEME: “O”, NO
It’s not often a 9-win season is considered a bummer. That may have been the case in Stillwater last season, though, when the Cowboys were shut out in their season finale at rival Oklahoma and then held to seven points in a bowl loss to Ole Miss. When the dust settled, a highly-touted, veteran offense saw their production fall 13 points and 120 YPG as injuries, player suspensions and being a ‘marked team’ finally took its toll. The ‘D’ was actually a bright spot last year but with only four starters back in the mix, HC Mike Gundy realizes he may have to win a few shootouts. Enter OC Dana Holgorsen. He brings his playbook from Houston where his offense was tops in the nation last season. Star RB Kendall Hunter is back to tote the pigskin but untested 26-year old JR QB Brandon Weeden takes over for Zac Robinson. It’s time to man up, ‘Boys!
PASS

TEXAS – 6 / 7

TEAM THEME: BIG (12) BULLIES
The Horns were a shoulder-injury short of winning a national championship last season. When QB Colt McCoy went down in the BCS title game, so did Texas’ hopes of beating Alabama. McCoy is off to the NFL and in steps Garrett Gilbert to direct an attack that will be moving away from the spread offense to more of a running game in 2010. This move will take some pressure off Gilbert, the 2008 High School Player of the Year, and hopefully improve a ground game that averaged a mere 148 YPG – their worst since 2002. No such adjustments are needed on the defensive front where the UT rush defense held opponents to a nation-low 72 YPG on the ground. Eight bowlers do roam this year’s schedule but six of those come from the Big 12 where the Horns are 16-1 SU over the last two seasons. The first two games in October will likely decide their fate.
PLAY AGAINST: as favorite vs. Texas Tech (9/18)

TEXAS A&M – *6 / 9

TEAM THEME: WHO STOPS J.J.?
The Jerrod Johnson show returns to College Station for its final season and it may draw a bigger audience in these parts than ‘Who shot J.R.?’ Johnson, a second-team all Big 12 performer, keyed the 5th best offense in the land by throwing for a school record 3,217 yards and 28 TD’s while adding another 455 yards on the ground. He saved his best performance for Texas, throwing for 342 yards and rushing for 97 more. J.J. is joined by a cast of kids that formed the youngest roster in the nation last year. While the offense will take the lead role, it’s imperative for the defense to add some support. Mike Sherman will rely on new DC Tim DeRuyter to shore up a stop unit that ranked 105th in the nation. DeRuyter, who led Air Force to a No. 11 team defense ranking last season, will have eight starters to work with as he incorporates his 3-4 scheme. With a season-ender at Texas, the finale should be scintillating.
PASS

TEXAS TECH – *8 / 6

TEAM THEME: JAMES GANG
With Craig and Adam James’ approval, Tommy Tuberville steps in to take over for Mike Leach, in one of the major coaching moves in Division 1 this season. After getting unceremoniously dumped by Auburn, Tuberville now walks into the Lubbock fire. Leach won 84 games in his 10 seasons with Tech – and along with Texas and Oklahoma, formed the winningest trio of teams in the nation from the same conference over the last three seasons (276 victories). Tuberville welcomes back 14 returning starters, including QB Taylor Potts. The word, though, is the QB job is open between Taylor and fan favorite Steven Sheffield (rumor has it that whoever completes more passes to Adam in the spring will likely get the nod). Whomever Tuberville decides on, he better make sure of one thing: he leads the Raiders to a bowl – ‘cause the fans sure got used to it with Leach.
PLAY ON: vs. Houston (11/27) – *KEY as dog

College Football Thoughts

College football as we presently know it is about to change. When earlier reports of the Big 10 (11), likely to expand beyond the expanses of its name again, this time everyone took it very seriously. The Big Ten Network has become a cash cow only a few would have imagined at its inception. That forced the SEC (with its better overall sports programs) to jump into bed with ESPN and other entities to “keep up with the Jones”.

The Big Ten has always thought its importance was more than everyone else’s and targeted Texas and other Big 12 schools, like that conference was from the local Goodwill and they could pick and choose what they wanted and everyone would idly sit by and wait and see what the Big Ten wanted to do.

That might have worked 50 years ago, no more. The Pac-10 went on the aggressive and word leaked this past week they wanted half the teams from the Big 12, quickly making it the Little Six.

Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado would join Arizona and Arizona State in league that could be known as – The 16 Pac(k) Conference. (Sponsored by Bud Light of course) While A&M has a huge ego problem about following the Longhorns lead, the fact is they would as big a non-factor in the SEC as Arkansas has become.

This places the Big 12 in a world of hurt. Commissioner Dan Beebe is trying to rectify the situation by keeping Texas, since they are the linchpin; however he seems less inclined to force their hand knowing the Longhorns can do about whatever they want. If the six Big 12 schools go, Missouri might be forced to go to go to the new Big 12 since the previous conference is now the Big 10 and dwindling. (Can you follow this?)

For sports bettors, this will really turn the college sports world upside down. The haves and have not’s will further separate in this revised two class system. Much like the middle class of our country heading downward, the same will be true of sports programs that are presently average. What chance would an Arizona or Arizona State have in football with the Longhorns, Sooners and to a lesser degree the Cowboys from Okie State in the same division? Yes they would have more money, with that satisfaction lasting maybe three years, but what about five seasons of 4-5 to 2-7, with faltering attendance and the revenue gains start going backwards?

And what about the Big 12, if they would manage to survive, Beebe would have to do a Mike Tranghese, the former commish of the Big East and go do some raiding of his own. That might include a quasi- Southwest Conference division of the Big 12, chasing down TCU, Houston, Rice, and SMU and adding possibly Memphis (for basketball purposes) to go along with Kansas, K-State, Baylor and Iowa State.

And what about Notre Dame? The smartest suggestion I’ve seen is for the Big Ten to invite the Irish in all other sports but football. Let them share the money (double-dipping) while keeping their independence in football as long as they add one Big Ten football game per year until their NBC contract expires, essentially making them a full-fledged member by 2015.

While it is true more than enough college football bettors will just want to see a number assigned to any matchup and give a you know what about expansion or reduction, or whatever happens, it will impact many conferences and teams positively and negatively.

Just remember, this is all about MONEY. If you ever hear anybody say it’s not fair to the student-athlete foe this or that get that person’s name and send them an email telling them you are busting them as liars. Much like Wall Street, this only about the cash and while it seems important now, like all money, after awhile it’s just not enough.

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Got a good laugh about defending national champion Alabama asking the SEC to review the schedules of other teams and politely move a few conference games around so the Crimson Tide doesn’t have to play six teams coming off a bye week. I have nothing against Alabama, but that is WEAK.

What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Hey it's a great day this Saturday

Off a 1-2 Friday, definitely seeking improvement. The Top Trend was our lone winner and we have one that has not lost in the Big 12. In fact we have a Big 12 theme today with Best System 22-4 ATS and Kendall has his Best Bet on the board from the same conference. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – I was as surprised as anybody to find the two awards I won at Cappers Monitor. Obviously I knew I was going well in CBB, yet honestly never gave it much a though otherwise. I’ll have to look further into where I’m at in the overall standings for CBB at other monitors I belong to. I don’t win at every sport, but I keep on making money, off being the champion of MLB at two different monitors last season.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Colorado off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, against opponent after they allowed 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival. This is good, 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent the last 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend -2) Oklahoma State is 8-0 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last two seasons winning by 17 points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s 13-5 this week in all his plays and like Baylor to take down Texas.

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Tune it up for Thursday

We are off a 3-0 Tuesday and I believe 12-3 (11-3-1 for some) in last 15 tries for 3DW. Kyle has been nothing short of amazing and hands out what he believes to be another CBB winner out of the West Coast Conference. On the topic of the WCC, that is where today’s Top Trend comes from. Today’s Top System is not official play (needs to be 80 percent) however the best I could find is awfully close at 79.2 percent. Good Luck

What I thought last night- Ohio State deserved to lose last night, taking I believe eight consecutive shots from 20 feet or better and not converting one after taking the lead in second half. Coach Thad Matta gets a C for last night for not running play in the lane. (Don’t want to hear they couldn’t pass the ball down low either, I witnessed six times somebody was open in the post)

Sometimes life isn’t fair. Notre Dame deserved to win last night at Louisville, losing in 2 OT’s without Big East’s leading scorer and four players fouling out but didn’t, at least backers got the money.

It was vodka bottle clear last night what is wrong with Texas, collectively they just don’t play as hard as they did earlier in the season, period.

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Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home favorites of 10 or more points like Denver U. revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, against opponent off a home loss against a conference rival. This almost qualifying system is 42-11 ATS, 79.2 the last five years.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) The Portland Pilots (good to know your nicknames) are 10-1 ATS as a favorite this season winning by 14.3 points per contest.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Mr. College Basketball, Kyle, is on 25-4 run and prefers St. Mary’s tonight.

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Holy Crap! This truly is a Big Monday!

ESPN viewers have suffered a visual assault this past week promoting tonight’s games and rivalry week in general, yet the matchups from the Big East and Big 12 are exemplary. Negative thinkers may believe Villanova and Texas losing on Saturday takes away from the meaningfulness of these contests; however this college basketball writer and sports bettor chooses to think differently, instead it creates even greater urgency for the Wildcats and Longhorns to play their best and prevail. Football may be history for another season, but what a way to kickoff the off-season!

Villanova at West Virginia 7:00E

Villanova (20-2, 15-6 ATS) completes the gruesome task of two games in three days on the Big East conference road. The Wildcats started their game at Georgetown like many cars around Washington D.C. area Saturday, stuck with no place to go in losing 103-90. Nova ran into a focused Hoyas club off a loss to South Florida, as they shot 56 percent from the field, went 8 of 13 from beyond the arc and hit 12 of 13 free throws before halftime in building 50-31 lead. Coach Jay Wright’s squad did more than fair share to contribute to first conference loss, committing 16 turnovers over the opening 20 minutes.

“That was not one of our better performances, but you’ve got to give Georgetown most of the credit. They jumped on us,” coach Wright said. The Wildcats have won and covered both their games this season with one day between contests and is 18-6 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.

West Virginia (19-3, 9-12 ATS) is in second place, one game behind Villanova and Syracuse and played Saturday in a strange contest even for them. St. John’s was a popular home favorite among sports handicappers receiving 7.5-points with the Mountaineers in look-ahead situation. It certainly seemed like a smart wager with the Red Storm up 16-points in the first half and leading 33-22 at halftime. Coach Bob Huggins lit into his team and six minutes in the second half, they went on 16-0 run on the way to a 57-27 final 20 minutes, for the win and cover.

With a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) the Mountaineers are getting their house in order. Devin Ebanks is scoring better, Truck Bryant has regained his shooting eye and though Kevin Jones has been slightly off, he kills opposing teams with his assertive offensive rebounding, adding points in that manner. Da’Sean Butler is West Virginia brightest star and is playing like it. The bottom line, coach Bob Huggins is starting to see the team that started 11-0, albeit, against stiffer competition these days and his club is 10-4 ATS in February.

This has all the makings of a real Big East physical war in which the basketball won’t be pretty, but entertaining nevertheless. DiamondSportsbook.com has West Virginia as five-point favorite with total of 150 and they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times Nova came calling.

Villanova is 10-4 ATS facing clubs with winning records and is 5-2 SU and on the road this campaign. The Mountaineers are 11-1 and 4-7 ATS at home and university officials hope the only thing the fans bring is a full throat to scream positively for their team.

Kansas at Texas 9:00E

Studying tape of Texas (19-4, 9-10 ATS) early in the season, the most discernable difference is defensive on-the-ball pressure. The Longhorns played with greater enthusiasm in the first part of the year and have to rekindle that feeling, especially against a team like No. 1 Kansas. The 80-71 loss at Oklahoma as a touchdown favorite was the lowest point of the season for a club that has lost four of six and covered the spread once since Dec.22 (1-9 ATS).

Oklahoma deserved credit for making nine 3-point bombs in the first half, but a hand up or denial defense would have helped. According to Orangebloods.com, Texas missed anywhere from 8 to 17 layups against a second-rate Sooners frontline and the free throw shooting was hysterical if it wasn’t so sad (10 of 27).

Texas is at the top of their game when the points are distributed. Damion James, Avery Bradley and for the most part Dexter Pittman hit their averages, but when Justin Mason, Dogus Balbay, Gary Johnson and J’Covan Brown are at or near double digits, Texas is that much better. The Horns are 31-18 ATS at home against offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a contest.

After suffering brief slump caused by internal and external forces, center Cole Aldrich is back and Kansas (22-1, 9-10-1 ATS) is back on track. The big man is exhibiting many of the qualities why he is being compared to former NBA great Kevin McHale. His presence along with a smokin’ hot Marcus Morris, gives the Jayhawks power in the paint, matched with devastating perimeter game. Kansas plays the 94-foot game led by PG Sherron Collins and the chemistry issue that manifested itself is to behind this team. The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or games on the year.

It’s not official, but if Texas can’t knock off top-ranked Kansas in Austin, their season might be over, trying to be elite club. Both teams are Big Monday winners, with the Longhorns 23-9 ATS and the Jayhawks 16-5 ATS to start another work week.

Kansas is a 1.5-point road favorite and the straight up winner is 8-2 ATS in last 10 meetings, including three in a row.

Louisville and Texas making bettors nervous

Rick Pitino knew the 2009-10 Cardinals were not at the same level as last year’s squad and expected growing pains. Rick Barnes of Texas knew he had a deep and talented club, which rose all the way to No.1 this season. As both Louisville and Texas have come up on the wrong side of the ledger in recent games, college basketball bettors are left to ponder what each of these teams might do on Big Monday.

Hey, a little helper over here

The Cardinals (13-8, 6-10 ATS) have lost four of last five in Big East play and Louisville backers are seeing red with their team 1-5 ATS in last six. The Cardinals 77-74 loss at West Virginia might have been microcosm of the entire season. The ‘Ville trailed the Mountaineers 13-0 to start the game and were outscored 18-4 to end it. The other 32+ minutes they dominated the contest 71-46. When the game was in the balance; the Cards could not make a bucket and didn’t stop the opposition, a familiar theme this season. Louisville is 3-11 ATS in home games when playing only their second game in eight days over the last three seasons.

About the only positive news for the home team is tonight’s foe is in the same predicament. Connecticut (13-8, 7-11-1 ATS) have fallen in five of their last seven outings, including the last two to Providence and Marquette. The Huskies have too often played like dogs to start games and they trailed by double digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying, only to lose 70-68 at home as five point favorites. UConn wiped the glass clean against smallish Marquette, outrebounding them by 19, yet forced but three turnovers. “I’m ready to play another game,” forwards Gavin Edwards said. “I want to get this taste out of my mouth as quick as possible.” Connecticut is 12-4 ATS in road games after playing consecutive contests as a favorite.

Louisville is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total at 145.5 and is 12-3 ATS in February games over the last two seasons, normally the time a Pitino coached club starts to jell. UConn will be playing their fifth game without coach Jim Calhoun (2-2 SU & ATS) and they are 6-0 OVER on the road after outrebounding opponent by 15 or more, winning by 7.7 points per game.

This is the early 7:00 Eastern start on ESPN and Louisville is 10-3 OVER as a favorite this season.

Longhorns coming up short

Texas hits the Big 12 road for the first time since losing at Kansas State and is off immensely disappointing home loss to Baylor 80-77 in overtime, as nine-point chalk. Texas (18-3, 8-9 ATS) has not been playing with the same urgency they were earlier in the season and has dropped three of last four. Opposing teams have bothered the Texas guards who have been dribbling too much and not getting offense into motion by passing the ball. Some Longhorns backers wonder if the team would be better served have a more set rotation of players having specific roles. They are just 5-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons, which includes current 0-6 spread mark in 2010.

After facing the frenetic pace at Missouri two days ago, another team that can get up and down the floor is next for Oklahoma State (16-5, 9-5-1 ATS). As usual it was physically and mentally draining contest in Columbia, losing 95-80, committing 24 turnovers and the Cowboys starters will be tested, since points off the bench are like the scenery from Stillwater to Austin, not much. Outside of James Anderson, perimeter shooting for Okie State is thinner than Kate Moss. The Cowboys have to shoot well since they are 8-46 ATS when they make 34 to 39 percent of their shots.

Texas is a 2.5-point fave in Stillwater and is putrid 6-17 ATS after a Big 12 game over the last two seasons. It will be a raucous setting for Okie State who is 17-7 ATS in all home games since 2008. Gallagher-Iba Arena hasn’t been hospitable for Texas, who is only 2-5 SU and ATS in previous seven visits.

Trustworthy College Basketball Teams to Bet

All of us go thru our lives trying to find people and things we can depend on. If we go out to eat, we look to go to places where the food is good or trust the judgment of our friends, for a tasty meal. When we need services for cars, air-conditioning or heat and possibly appliances that breakdown, we want to be able to trust someone to fix the problem at a fair price.

The same logic applies to sports betting. How often has anyone of us bet on a team maybe we don’t wager on a great deal, play them, lose the bet and forget about playing that team for an extended period because we’ve been burned by them? It happens to all of us making knee-jerk reactions, rightly or wrongly. We instead retreat back to situations or in this instance, teams we can trust.

With the college basketball season past the halfway point, we have enough games in the hopper to make observations about certain teams making them worthy of consideration for our wagering dollars or possibly not. We are aware what is true in sports wagering today, isn’t necessarily so in a week. Nevertheless, a collection of teams have been found to be trustworthy looking at two simple situations this season.

One such instance is teams off a spread loss. We all know you can’t win every bet and you have to play the percentages. One bad week does not a season make, but realistically, how many of us make a bet before the game thinking we are going to lose. When our wager goes south in the first 10 minutes, we have all said “I knew this was going to lose”, yet the fact remains we believed enough in the team to actually place the bet, thus we are being revisionists if nothing else.

Teams off a spread loss record (SU & ATS)
BYU 6-1, 5-1 ATS
Detroit 3-2, 5-0
Duke 6-0, 5-1
Georgetown 6-0, 4-1-1
Kansas 6-1, 4-1-1
Temple 6-1, 5-2
Valparaiso 4-2, 4-0-1
Xavier 6-1, 6-1

For the most part, the teams on this list have pedigree in terms of winning and expectations. Duke, Georgetown and Kansas are going to be somewhat overvalued by oddsmakers and when they come off a less than desirable result as a team and the perception of the head coach, they go right back to work and solve the issues. That is not to say these teams are going to make this group each year, rather, the group of individuals on this particular team is more adaptive, willing to listen to their coach, have team leaders and the talent to immediately improve and will likely get a somewhat fairer price labeled on them especially off a loss.

BYU and Xavier would also fit similar reasoning, just not being as public teams for the normal sports bettor.

Temple lost three very good players from last year’s team, however coach Fran Dunphy has elevated the Owls program thru recruiting to the point where they can reload as opposed to rebuild. Valparaiso is well coached by Homer Drew with limited talent, while Detroit is regaining status under second year coach Ray McCallum having the players buying into his system after being down for years.

The next grouping we seek is teams off a spread victory. Here the idea is to find teams that cover the number and continue to beat those setting the lines. For this contingent, we want to entrust teams that can build on momentum and have proven that they can cover the spread and one setback isn’t going to hold them back since they can climb right back in the saddle and win again and continue on.

Teams off a spread win record (SU & ATS)
Baylor 6-3, 5-2 ATS
Clemson 9-0, 6-1
College of Charleston 8-2, 6-2-1
Gonzaga 9-0, 6-2
Kansas State 9-1, 5-1
Morehead State 7-2, 5-1
Northeastern 10-1, 8-2-1
Siena 6-1, 5-0
South Florida 7-3, 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2, 5-1
St. Mary’s 11-2, 9-3
Syracuse 11-1, 8-3
Texas 8-0, 5-1
Villanova 13-0, 10-3

What’s not to like about these winners! Some of the very finest teams in the country are within this group and having seen many of them play; the ability is certainly there to continue winning ways, as long as the oddmakers don’t start adding too many points on their ledger. Whenever time is allotted to dig a little deeper, surprise teams always emerge. A Northeastern, picked to finish fifth in the Colonial Athletic Conference steps forward. Most basketball bettors are aware of Murray State from the Ohio Valley, but Morehead State led by possible OVC Player of the Rear Kenneth Faried, could be going back to NCAA Tournament after last season’s astonishing appearance.

We also find teams in this latter group that deserve their own special mention. These are true “under the radar” squads not gathering much attention, possibly a little hard to stomach, however their wagering results after a cover are tremendous in spite of sketchy SU records.

Teams off a spread win with unimpressive SU record (SU & ATS)
Drake 5-4, 6-1-1 ATS
Sacramento State 3-10, 8-3
Wyoming 2-6, 6-0

Drake is expediently acquiring notoriety and trust with 5-1 and 6-0 ATS mark in last six outings, all as underdogs. Sacramento State is being outscored by six points per game after a spread cover, which is great news since they have mostly received 10 or more points in putting together 7-14 campaign. The Hornets might be 3-14 as underdogs, but the cha-ching heard is 13-4 ATS record. Wyoming to is outscored after covering the number (3.3 PPG), nonetheless they must be being overlooked by Mountain West teams and others with 7-2 ATS mark as humble and profitable dogs.

It pays to go with things you can trust, even in college basketball betting.

Scintillating Sunday

Playing against what will be the No. 1 team in the country tomorrow was not a trepidant idea; nevertheless it was the best system which led to 1-2 day. Today, we look to bounce back with 32-8 hockey system along with an excellent NBA Top Trend. Felt sorry for Sal, at least from our perspective, since he was 8-1 yesterday, but his top play was a loser. Ken likes the total in one of the NFL games today. Good Luck

What I thought last yesterday – Clark Kellogg was harping on Texas not playing well offensively for their reasons for losing. While there is truth in that, the fact remains in watching them, the Longhorns do a poor job in stopping dribble penetration off the wings and allow entry passes into the post (within seven of the basket) way to easily. Personally, I think the defense, not the offense is what needs more attention.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Hockey System -1) Play Against all teams against the money line like Carolina playing their third game in five days, a terrible team (30 percent or less win percentage), playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The NHL system is 32-8 and even 80 percent.

Free Basketball Trend -2) The L.A. Lakers are 11-1 ATS in road games versus defensive teams allowing 103 or points a game in the second half of the season over the last three years.

Free Football Pick -3) Ken of the LCC is 6-1 in the NFL Playoffs and has the Under in Jets and Colts today.

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Saturday College Buckets

Men’s college basketball takes over on Saturday’s for the next several months with a boatload of action for sports bettors and those that like to handicap. The coverage is coast to coast and goes from morning until past midnight depending on your location. CBS Sports has a Big Ten battle and two interesting non-conference clashes. ESPN has its usual Big East confrontation early in the day and a top shelf ACC encounter in prime time. This week we also take a look at an unusual matchup in the Colonial Conference, with one team expected to contend and another trying to work its way up. It promises to be a super way to enjoy a Saturday. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com. (Note: Though childish, take a look where Duke player's left foot is. He probably left the Wake Forest player with a pair of blue devils)

Michigan State at Minnesota (-2,138.5) 12:00E CBS

Kudos to coach Tom Izzo, understanding his team and the chemistry involved after finishing runner up for the national championship. Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) was lacking a spark early in the year, as several of last year’s players had not shown improvement. Izzo witnessed sophomore forward Draymond Green was his most consistent player, but felt he might get lost as a starter. Instead, Izzo made Green his sixth man, which has light a fire for the Spartans virtually every game he’s entered. Green rebounds, blocks shots, creates steals and scores, making him an instant success every time he hits the floor. The Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS on the road off of three straight home games.

Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS) has played frenetic defense all season, holding teams to 38.5 percent shooting, something you would expect from a Tubby Smith coach squad. It’s never flashy, but extremely frustrating for opponents trying to find open shots and passing lanes. Minny is 8-1 ATS at home when opponents convert 31 to 37 percent of three’s. The Golden Gophers have been bolstered on offense with Blake Hoffarber who has regained his shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc. He and Lawrence Westbrook will need big games to slow down Spartans.

The Spartans are 7-3 SU at “The Barn”, with 5-3-2 ATS record.

Villanova at St. John’s (+6.148.5) 12:00E ESPN

Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play with. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.

This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which meant unless they can made something positive happen immediately, it was setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is 13-3 ATS on playing on Saturday’s.

Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters.

Ohio State at West Virginia (-6,133) 2:00E CBS

The Buckeyes (14-5, 10-9 ATS) takes a break from Big Ten action to make the trek to Morgantown. Ohio State has responded with playing better basketball with the return of their best player Evan Turner. His inspired play has led to the Buckeyes playing better a team, with each teammate being back in their role before Turner suffered back injury. Coach Thad Matta has been tinkering with different defenses and his skill will be called into question against diverse West Virginia squad. The Buckeyes are 82-35 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shots attempts.

The Mountaineers (14-3, 6-10 ATS) have proven two things this season, when they come prepared to play, they are Top 10 team and when they don’t they are as beatable as any other college basketball squad. Coach Bob Huggins demands defensive intensity and when West Virginia players deliver, the offense works much more fluidly. After losing to Purdue earlier, West Virginia has opportunity to extract Big Ten revenge on the Buckeyes. The ‘Teers are 21-10 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game on the season after 15 or more contests.

West Virginia is 10-3 after a victory with 4-8 ATS mark. Ohio State is 11-1 UNDER against the Big East.

Texas at Connecticut (+3, 147) 4:00E CBS

No one can claim this talent-laden Texas (17-1, 8-6 ATS) team has taken the easy way out scheduling wise this season. Besides playing in the arduous Big 12, the Longhorns have gone out of their way to take on some the best schools from the top conferences and will again to play Connecticut. The Texas roster is a puzzle for opposing coaches to figure out. Focus on Damion James and Dexter Pittman and Avery Bradley or Gary Johnson can carve an opponent up. The other aspect that shines thru, the Horns players seem to genuinely enjoying playing with one another and share the glory. Texas is 14-0 and 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this campaign.

Evidently Big East play isn’t challenging enough for Connecticut (12-6, 6-9-1 ATS), they have to find a team that is one of the finest in the country to break up the conference slate. All kidding aside, coach Jim Calhoun ( now on medical leave) has played encounters like this the last several years as a refocusing distraction, to test the mental awareness of his players with February not far away. For the most part, the Huskies have played about as expected; nonetheless having Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu elevate their play improves UConn considerably. Connecticut is 16-8 ATS in January games since 2007.

Texas comes to Connecticut off its first loss of the season and hasn’t played well this month, with 0-5 spread record and barely beating Texas A&M CC 76-70. The Longhorns are 1-9-1 against clubs with a winning home record. The Huskies are 9-3 in non-conference action, with sordid 2-8 ATS record.

Old Dominion at William & Mary (+4.5,125) 7:00E WSKY

The standings in the Colonial Conference have many of the usual suspects, however one is different. William & Mary (14-4, 9-4-1 ATS) has been hanging around the upper echelons of the league this season, with coach Tony Shaver’s club displaying supreme confidence. Point guard Quinn McDowell has been the catalyst, playing close to mistake-free as the Tribe has the fewest turnovers in the conference. William & Mary’s confidence comes from how they have played on road where they are 7-3 and 7-2 ATS. Off their defeat at Virginia Commonwealth, the Tribe is 7-1 ATS following a SU loss.

Old Dominion (15-5, 6-9-1 ATS) was the preseason pick to win the Colonial and they look the part in a three-way tied for first place. The Monarchs play superior defense like always (55.5 points per game) and are the league’s top rebounding team. Though the season has gone well, coach Blaine Taylor made a lineup switch, putting guard Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup and the results have been fantastic. At 6’4, Bazemore gives ODU more size in the backcourt and his length creates defensive issues for smaller opponents. The Monarchs are 11-3 off a SU win, with underwhelming 4-7 ATS mark this season, which reflects the past since they are 8-20 ATS after a triumph.

Old Dominion is 8-4 and 7-5 ATS at the Williamsburg, VA campus and the visiting team has covered five in a row.

Duke at Clemson (+1,146) 9:00E ESPN

You can bet coach Mike Krzyzewski has worked Duke extra hard in preparation for prime time affair at Clemson. Coach K remembers firsthand how the Tigers can play at Littlejohn Coliseum, losing 74-47 their last year. He’s also seen what Clemson did to North Carolina, building 20-point lead in the first eight minutes of the game and cruising to victory over the Tar Heels. That is why the play of guard Jon Scheyer is so critical, keeping Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) from playing at too frenzied a pace. The Dukies are 8-19 ATS in road games vs. clubs outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points a game after 15 or more tries.

Backed with its home crowd, the Tigers memories are fresh from being embarrassed at Duke on Jan. 3, losing 74-53, totaling just 12 points in the first 20 minutes. Senior forward Trevor Booker is the energy of this team and its most important player. When Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS) has to set up offense, allowing Booker to at least touch the ball, good things usually follow. He’s skilled around the basket and finds open shooters off the bounce. Unquestionably, the Tigers play better at home and they are 21-10 ATS when they force 14 to 18 turnovers.

Duke is off upset loss at N.C. State and looks for quick turnaround victory, since they are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS after a spread loss in lined games. Clemson is 9-1 and 6-1 ATS on their home floor and last year’s win at home was the first in 10 vs. Duke, with 4-5-1 ATS record.

Holy Crap, Big Monday is REALLY BIG

The Texas Longhorns were voted No.1 in the rankings for the first time last week and found out how thorny that crown can be, holding on to win at Iowa State and being pushed to overtime at home by Texas A&M before surviving this past week. The next test could be the toughest, at No.13 Kansas State. Syracuse pulled the upset at West Virginia and faces a hungry Notre Dame team that always plays better at home and off a heart-breaking loss.

Syracuse at Notre Dame 7:00E ESPN

Both the Orangemen and the Fighting Irish were engaged in close hard fought battles Saturday, the former emerged victorious, while the latter was beaten in the final seconds.

Syracuse held on at West Virginia 72-71, nearly blowing a 10-point lead in the final 80 seconds. That moved the Orangemen to 17-1 (11-3 ATS) on the year, as they continue to be one of the best shooting teams in the country at 53.4 percent, with the ability to score inside with Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku or the perimeter with a number of sharp-shooters from deep hitting 39.2 percent beyond the arc. This year’s Orangemen are much better defensively than the previous couple of years and they are 8-1 ATS after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40 percent or less.

Notre Dame (14-4, 7-4-1 ATS) had a nip and tuck affair with Cincinnati, succumbing late 60-58. It was rare off-game for Luke Harangody, making just 5 or 20 shot attempts. Harangody admitted he missed shots he usually doesn’t, however did take more off-balance shots than he normally does. The Big East usually doesn’t leave much room for error, as coach Mike Brey explained.

“I told our guys, in this league when you have a game on Monday, you can’t dwell on it,” Brey said after the loss. “We have to get back to South Bend and get our legs under us.” The Irish are 20-35 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival.

Syracuse is going off as three-point favorite and are 6-0 ATS as visitors playing against a team with a winning record this season. The total is 158 and the Orangemen are 9-1 OVER after a win by six points or less over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 6-0 UNDER at home off a Big East loss since last season and 6-17 ATS in South Bend when the total is 150 to 159.5.
The Fighting Irish are 3-7 and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times the ‘Cuse has come calling.

Texas at Kansas State 9:00E ESPN

The Longhorns have played a number of very good clubs this season and has played at an extremely high level except for a couple blips here and there. This road encounter is against one of the best teams in the Big 12 who would savor the opportunity to take down one of the nation’s No. 1 team. One edge Texas (17-0, 8-5 ATS) has is in the frontcourt with Damion James, Dexter Pittman and Gary Johnson. Though Kansas State has solid players on the baseline, they don’t matchup well in this department. That said the atmosphere will be electric at Bramlage Coliseum, which could offset the Longhorns talent edge with the emotion of the building. Coach Rick Barnes team has been an awful team in Big 12 play with 5-16 ATS record the last two years.

The Wildcats (15-2, 9-3 ATS) will depend on their puissant backcourt of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. With all the talent Texas has at the guard position, they don’t have two individuals that complement one another as well as this duo. Pullen can drain the three-ball and Clemente has superior court presence. Kansas State has to play their game to upset Texas and that means being disruptive on defense, where they average nearly 20 points per game off turnovers.

“We understand we’re getting ready to walk into a buzz saw,” coach Frank Martin said about facing Texas. “That’s why those kids signed up and came to play for us. Those are the kinds of games they wanted to be in.” The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS at home having won four of their last four games over the last three seasons.

DiamondSportsbook.com has this important matchup has the Longhorns as 1.5-point underdogs, with total of 159. Texas is off to their best start since 1932 and is just 1-11 ATS off a win against a conference foe and is 14-5 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. K-State is 7-1 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season and is 13-4 OVER after playing two consecutive games as favorite.

These Big 12 squads have split last six meetings in Manhattan SU and against the number.

Best Bets in College Basketball

College basketball has evolved into conference play and a number of teams have gaudy records, some are of value and others not. In the sports wagering game of cat and mouse, spread wins and losses supersede conventional win/loss numbers, as team’s heavy one way or the other draw the scrutiny of those setting the lines. Let’s face it, understanding information is the key to winning consistently, along with an instinct to spot a winner based on various factors. Here we will look at a number of the top winning college basketball teams covering the spread and if they are a good or bad bet going deeper into the season.

St. Mary’s (14-2, 13-2 ATS)

The Gaels lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad, including the brilliant Paddy Mills and figured to finish no better than third place in what could a down year for the West Coast Conference. It was fairly easy to make the argument that St. Mary’s was burned by the NCAA after being snubbed with 28-7 record, primarily because Mills suffered hand injury and the team faltered because of that down the stretch. Players like center Omar Samhan vowed to make sure that wouldn’t happen again and has kept his word thus far. It would be incorrect to call the Gaels schedule imposing; nevertheless, they’ve faced teams that at least deserved to have a spread in virtually every contest. St. Mary’s is a patient offensive team, shooting almost 50 percent and works the ball around for good shoots in coach Randy Bennett’s offense. Defensively, the Gaels are adequate in holding opponents to around 42 percent shooting and as usual are lights out at tiny McKeon Pavilion (3,500 capacity) with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS record. St. Mary’s notoriety mostly comes from playing Gonzaga; oddsmakers won’t pay a great deal of attention to them as long as they don’t enter the Top 25 or make a lot of headlines. Should be able to secure a fair price on the Gaels in the coming weeks.

Texas (15-0, 8-3 ATS)

Coach Rick Barnes Longhorns are very deserving of high ranking and for a club this high on the charts, have covered an abnormal amount of games. In trying to understand why, Texas has faced an exceptional non-conference slate, which has presented less inflated numbers that would correlate with top-notch status. The Longhorns have proven they have the skill and depth to override opposing teams. This has been particularly true against teams that compete with Texas for 25-30 minutes, then players that could start for most of the Horns opponents, overwhelm them down the stretch as these bench players and fresher starters are able to play their game against worn out foe. Texas is 8-3 ATS as favorite, but is not lock they appear. Coach Barnes has to get after his guys from time to time, since they are so skilled on offense; they kept caught up in making buckets instead of defending the basket. Most of the time they will be able to overcome this and cover inflated numbers, but as was the case in the Arkansas road conflict, they surrendered 48 first half points and never was close to covering the 14-point spread due to lack of defensive intensity.

Kansas State (13-2, 7-3 ATS)

The Manhattan ‘Cats were supposed to be good, but not this good! Though Bob Huggins stay was just one season, he made an indelible mark on the program and coach Frank Martin continued right where Huggins left off. Kansas State’s depth allows Martin to sit any player who is not going all out on the floor. Martin wants his players like a Motorhead CD, aggressive on offense, defense and crashing the boards. The Wildcats are blessed with an exceptional backcourt. Shooting guard Jacob Pullen can scorch the nylon and really heat up beyond the arc. Denis Clemente pushes the ball with his blazing speed for easy layups or passes for spot up three’s by teammates. K-State lacks that one consistent scorer in the paint, nonetheless junior Curtis Kelly and Luis Colon have played better this season. Kansas State will see inflated numbers at Bramlage Coliseum, however are still worth consideration if opponent is weak defensively (44 percent shooting percentage or higher). On the road, taking the purple clad ‘Cats as underdogs is good wager, as long as the opposing team has an average or less backcourt, which Clemente and Pullen could run roughshod on. This team feeds on emotion and is 11-2 and 6-2 ATS after a victory.

Oregon State (7-8, 8-2 ATS)

At the beginning of 2010, the general appearance is coach Craig Robinson, might be having a better first quarter than is brother in law (The President) in the court of public opinion. The Oregon State head man might be carrying a small container of Tums in sport jacket, as his Beavers have played nine of 15 games decided by eight or fewer points. Robinson, in his second year, is working on upgrading the talent in Corvallis, but until then has decided that playing defense is the best way for his team to have a chance to win. It’s nothing fancy for Orange and Black, focusing on playing positional defense, not getting beat off the bounce and helping out when necessary. Despite a 2-4 SU record as an underdog, Oregon State has hung tough, losing by just 1.2 points per game in that role and sporting a busy 6-0 ATS record. With the Pac-10 languishing this season, the Beavers catching points looks like an opportune wager.

Villanova (11-1, 11-4 ATS)

College basketball is a guard-oriented sport, since it is much easier to find players that can be dynamic at 6’3 or less than it is to find a 6’10 big man. Coach Jay Wright has always understood this and recruited accordingly. That doesn’t mean Wright wants a one-trick pony in backcourt, his players have to be versatile performers offensively and defensively and willing to track down rebounds. Villanova’s quick getaway has been fueled by persistent defensive pressure, keeping foes right around 40 percent shooting and Scottie Reynolds directs an offense NASCAR champion Jimmy Johnson would be proud, having many gears, including sticking it on the floor. Studying the patterns of the Wildcats against the spread the last several years, oddsmakers have had a real beat on Nova. They seldom cover by more than four or five points, which is coach Wright’s style of play. The Wildcats are 12-1 and 9-4 ATS as chalk and have been superb when playing with three or more days off with 8-1 and 7-1 ATS mark. Big East play tends to grind up most teams, keeping them around .500 against the number. For the short term, as long as Villanova continues to play great defense, they have to be considered a play on team as a favorite or dog.

Northern Iowa (14-1, 11-3 ATS)

Subtract the head-scratching loss to DePaul in the second game of the season; the Panthers are on track for a truly special campaign. Northern Iowa returned nine players that accounted for 91.7 percent of its scoring from team that tied for first in the Missouri Valley and won the conference tournament to earn NCAA berth. The Panthers aren’t going to mesmerize opponents with blazing speed; however they will carve them up a like turkey with the conference’s best inside duo, accurate outside shooters and a team that doesn’t make mistakes. 7’1, 290 pound Jordan Eglseder is turning into dominant beast, as he and Adam Koch control the paint. The perimeter players feature a cast of sharp shooters, with the Panthers hovering around 40 percent all season from three-point range. With all the veterans on this team, they are unaffected by outside surroundings and just goes about their business of winning basketball games. This team started the year with three goals, win the Valley regular reason and postseason tournament to earn higher seed and get to at least the Sweet 16. Would not recommend betting against them.

Two Hardwood Televised Tilts

Today on the ESPN family of networks, two of the remaining four unbeaten teams in college basketball will lace’em up in trying to keep their noticeable fast starts intact. Fourth ranked Purdue continues their Big Ten schedule hosting Minnesota, while No. 2 Texas rekindles an old Southwest Conference rivalry with Arkansas.

Texas at Arkansas ESPN2

After defeating a number of notable teams in November and December, highly ranked Texas (13-0, 8-1 ATS) will try to keep the train rolling against Arkansas (7-7, 2-5 ATS). The Longhorns have only had one true road game at Rice, making this their first stop outside of the Lone Star State and a large crowd of Hogs fans is expected at Bud Walton Arena for these former conference rivals. Texas has comfortably lived up to all the preseason accolades and Damion Jones leads a roster of tremendously talented players. This comment might be the best way to describe Texas - "I think if we play to our potential, we can beat everybody we play," coach Rick Barnes said. The Horns are 8-1 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half over the last three seasons.

The start of the Arkansas season has been marred by two distinct aspects, injuries and suspensions. Sophomore guard Rotnei Clarke has been a scoring machine, but has missed time with knee tendinitis. Four players on scholarship have suspended for disciplinary reasons not all have returned to active roster. Coach John Pelphrey squad is going to have to shoot lights out just to compete with Texas and the Razorbacks are 8-17 ATS as an underdog in last 25 tries.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 15.5-point favorite, with total of 149. The Longhorns convert 49.3 percent of their shots this season and Arkansas is 20-38 ATS versus shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their attempts.

Minnesota at Purdue 7:00E ESPN

In case you missed it, what an impressive performance by Purdue (13-0, 7-6 ATS) on New Year’s Day, whipping previously unbeaten West Virginia 77-62. The Boilermakers have been spotty on offense all season, however against the Mountaineers; they were spot on in hitting 50 percent of their shots and proved just how lethal they can be when their entire game comes together. “Once we get things clicking on offense, we’re very dangerous,” Center JaJuan Johnson said. Purdue is 16-4 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) arrives in West Lafayette, riding a seven-game winning streak that includes two conference wins over Penn state and Iowa. The Golden Gophers are led by senior guard Lawrence Westbrook, averaging a team-high 13.8 points. Minnesota will be without the services of center Ralph Sampson III, who is still nursing an ankle that forced him to miss previous game. Coach Tubby Smith is hoping Blake Hoffarber continues his sharp, averaging over 18 points a game during this win streak.

The Gophers are receiving eight points at Mackey Arena and are 8-20 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Purdue has been outstanding in protecting the ball, but like most teams can’t be letter perfect every encounter and are 3-11 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Purdue goes for its 500th win at Mackey Arena (499-114) off to its best start in 16 years.

Longhorns and Yellow Jackets favored

The final two spots for the BCS will be locked up on Saturday night, with the Big 12 and ACC championships. Texas is a solid favorite and is predicted to be in BCS title game with a victory. The ACC game for all the marbles has a different flavor, as both teams are off disappointing losses to non-conference rivals and are in a rematch of earlier game. A double dip to close out Championship Saturday. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Nebraska vs Texas (-14.5, 47) 8:00E ABC

It wasn’t an easy trek, but Nebraska accomplished one of their goals this season, winning the Big 12 North. The next goal is more challenging aspiration, knocking off Texas for the conference crown. This is the Cornhuskers fifth appearance in the Big 12 championship and the third time they will face Texas. Nebraska (9-3, 7-5 ATS) has to this point stayed with a familiar script, using a conservative offense, a stingy defense and special teams play that consistently wins the field position battle. Only Texas Tech and lucky Colorado has managed to score more than 17 points against the Blackshirts, with Ndamukong Suh, a finalist for the Lombardi Award, leading the assault. The offense needs RB Roy Helu gaining yardage behind the offensive line, giving inaccordant quarterback Zac Lee a chance to complete passes. Nebraska is 25-10 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better.

After missing out on BCS title game a year ago, Texas (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) was expected to come in this season and have Texas-sized chip on their shoulder. One aspect overlooked is every year is divergent. Different players are starters along with backups and attitudes change for individuals still in college. The Longhorns had more than their share of slow starts and always came on to put way opponent in the last 30-45 minutes of game action. Since the close 16-13 victory over Oklahoma, the Texas players have played with greater purpose and man-handled everyone on the schedule. It’s evident the Longhorns are peaking but will face a determined Nebraska club that is has nothing to lose. Texas is 22-5 ATS when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play.

The Texas defense was sliced and diced by Texas A&M last week for 532 yards, but Nebraska lacks that kind of firepower to match those figures. Do expect Lee of the Cornhuskers to throw the ball, especially early, since the Longhorns have allowed 279.3 yards passing in last three contests. Nebraska has covered seven of last 10 against teams with winning records.

Against teams from BCS conferences, Nebraska has scored a whopping 18.3 points per game this season. That means a quick start for focused Mack Brown team has TV viewers heading over to ACC contest. This is attitude game for Longhorns, beat Huskers decidedly and folks start believing they can defeat SEC champion. Let Nebraska hang around playing great defense and people will ask what is wrong with TCU not being in Pasadena for last game of the season. The Horns are 13-4 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards.

Favorites in the Big 12 title games are 8-4-1 ATS.

3DW Line – Texas by 15

Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Pick) 8:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch from Sept.10 for the ACC championship. In that contest, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Clemson, with RB Anthony Allen scoring on an 82-yard run and Jerrard Tarrant taking a punt back 85 yards. The Tigers weathered the storm and settled in and scored the game’s next 27 points to take the lead. The Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) reestablished their option offense and put together two drives that resulted in field goals, including the winner with under a minute to escape 30-27. Georgia Tech is 5-1 and 3-3 ATS vs. Clemson last six meetings.

Georgia Tech’s option offense had stung opponents for 39 points per game during its eight game winning streak before losing to rival Georgia. One edge they have enjoyed is teams had only one week to prepare for unique offense. Though Clemson will have the same time frame having played South Carolina last week, they’ve had enough time to breakdown tape of their earlier matchup. Coach Paul Johnson, whose 19-6 (15-7 ATS) mark through two seasons is the best in Tech history, has shown his offense can work playing against better competition. The Yellow Jackets are perfect 8-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards a game over the last two seasons.

Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS) has finally broken thru, winning seven of eight contests and playing like a team which finally exceeded expectations. Coach Dabo Swinney was finally able to sell the upperclassmen on the idea of being accountable for actions. Seniors like C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford have been among the leaders that by example both verbally and by actions. One noticeable difference also has been the defense. Clemson’s had numerous players with all-ACC ability, but this group is No. 1 in total defense in the league and 14th nationally. The Tigers are 2-11 ATS when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards.

Clemson should have learned something from Georgia’s win, pound away at Yellow Jackets front seven. The Tigers have three running backs each with a different style, make it work and score touchdowns. If Clemson doesn’t run effectively and is forced to pass, they drop to 2-8 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in last game.

Interesting to note in common opponents Clemson is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) winning by almost 17 points a game, while Georgia Tech is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 4.2 PPG.

3DW Line – Georgia Tech by 1

College Buckets on ESPN2

With one conference head to head challenge in the books, another commences Thursday. This is the opening night for the Big 12-/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, with three games on tap. We’ll focus our attention on the two main contests on ESPN2 to get things started.

Washington at Texas Tech 7:00ET, ESPN2

Washington (5-0, 1-4 ATS) is one of the co-favorites in the Pac-10, mostly because they have the best balance in the front and backcourt compared to their league foes. Guard Isaiah Thomas brings explosiveness and tremendous speed out of the Washington guard position. The best player for the Huskies is senior Quincy Pondexter, who last season started to live up to hype since arriving in Seattle. He’s become the most dependable scorer for coach Lorenzo Romar. For Washington to match expectations, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Darnell Gant have to be a factor come game day. The Huskies are 5-16 ATS off three or more consecutive home wins.

Texas Tech (7-0, 1-1 ATS) has devoured a group of crème puffs thus far and will face first legit team of the season. The Red Raiders are expected to be lackluster in the Big 12 after last year’s 11th place finish. Texas Tech has four starters back for this campaign and wing player Nick Okorie and forward D’walyn Roberts have been the most impressive players to date and underrated point guard John Roberson has added stability. The Red Raiders earlier defeated another Pac-10 club Oregon State 64-60. This is step in class and they are 9-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.

Bookmaker.com has Washington as three-point favorites as they prepare to play first road game of the season and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS as the visitor after they failed to cover the spread. The Red Raiders are tough to gauge, but 6-0 ATS record after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games has to be given some credence.

USC at Texas 9:00ET, ESPN2

Another matchup for the series between the Big-12 and Pac-10 has the Trojans visiting Austin, TX. Southern Cal (2-2, 1-2 ATS) was a program on the rise just 12 months ago; however three of their top players declared for the NBA Draft and then coach Tim Floyd was embroiled in the middle of a scandal, which forced his resignation. All previous top level recruits begged out of wearing the burgundy and yellow and new coach Kevin O’Neill took over, not known as Mr. Warmth. USC’s depleted roster took another hit recently when Kasey Cunningham went down for the season with knee injury, leaving the Trojans with five passable D-1 players. They are 5-16 ATS in road games after they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or more (5-for-9) since 1997.

Coach Rick Barnes has enough depth on his roster in which he could loan USC a few players and not miss a beat if this was a scrimmage. Texas (5-0 SU & ATS) can sleep walk to 70 points with established star like Damion James and emerging big man Dexter Pittman. Players like Gary Johnson, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay, who started heavy minutes last season, are not on the court as often and fighting daily in practice with newcomers who are as talented or better. Texas can turn up the defensive pressure and they are 40-22 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points.
Texas is 20.5-point favorite and they are 8-1 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. USC will try and hang in and is 11-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last three seasons.

Conference Championship Games History

The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the league’s title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.

Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide’s home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.

Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tide’s defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.

This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.

Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and haven’t been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.

Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Here’s a look at the history of each of the conference championships.

SEC

The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.

Past SEC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 –FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 –FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER

Big 12

The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyder’s K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.

Past Big 12 Championship Game Results

Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 – OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER

MAC

In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigan’s third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.

Past MAC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 – BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A

ACC

The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.

Past ACC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 – VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER

Conference USA

Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.

In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.

Past Conference USA Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 – EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER

Texas and Texas A&M in Turkey Day Texas Tussle

This has been an unusual season for Texas, who has gone about their business without a great deal of fanfare and is two games away from playing for the national championship. In many ways, the Longhorns (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) season has paralleled quarterback Colt McCoy’s.

Last season, Big 12 field generals were putting up gaudy figures and scoreboards moved like the numbers on the New York Stock Exchange. However this season, McCoy hasn’t always been sharp, Texas has had their share of slow starts, yet when you take away the Oklahoma defensive struggle, they have outscored teams 45-13, awfully impressive. Coach Mack Brown’s team is 5-1 ATS in last six contests as Big 12 road chalk.

The presumption is coach Mike Sherman is wise enough not to bring out the white helmets again, compared to traditional maroon, since Texas A&M is 0-2, losing by 83 points this season. For Aggies fans, it has been both feet in the stirrups and holding the reins tight, with losses of 65-10 and 62-14, mixed in with wins like 56-19 over UAB and 52-30 upset of Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS) figures to get leveled by the Longhorns, however two years ago they won in College Station 38-30 as touchdown underdogs and in 2005, gave a game effort before falling 40-29 as 28-point underdogs to then # 2 Texas. Off last week’s 38-3 blowout of Baylor, it’s easy to understand that prosperity seldom takes comfort in Aggie-land, with Texas A&M 2-10 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.

The Aggies have covered four of last five at home vs. the Horns and have to have quarterback Jerrod Johnson supply a big game. Texas A&M has shown capacity to play well and if pressured, Johnson can test the Texas secondary with his big arm, which could make things interesting. Coach Sherman’s team averages 268.8 yards passing and Texas has surrendered 240 yards or more passing four times this season (2-1-1 ATS), which adds intrigue if nothing else. The Aggies are 18-7 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13.

Bookmaker.com has Texas as 21-point favorites with total of 62.5. The Longhorns should stop the Aggies running game, being first in the nation at 50.1 yards per game allowed. The Horns are 9-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last game. (53 total net rushing yards allowed in last two contests) McCoy should have no problems negotiating 100th ranked Texas A&M defense and they are 24-9 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.

ESPN will have this Thanksgiving treat at 8:00 Eastern, with Texas is 10-4 and 9-4-1 ATS vs. rival A&M, however the home team is 8-2-1 ATS.