Wagers to consider for NFL Draft

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two.

If you managed to keep a portion of your football winnings thru the basketball season, the NFL Draft is a fun and unique way to watch the festivities, since you are going to put in the time to watch, why not have a little something riding on it. (Not that were advocating gambling on sports –wink)

We checked out the latest at Sportsbook.com for a number of their props and here are the absolutely “Guaranteed” projected winners from wwwwweneverloseinfootballdotcon.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over Two -650
Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is reach for the first round. A lot of extra juice for hard to win wager.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380
Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and able to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back and Ryan Mathews will fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma, Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300
Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160
Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250
Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with even number, making this one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140
Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240
Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145
Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500
Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120
Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290
Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more polished product with better hands and cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the odd for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135
Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170
Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130
No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run; this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

Looking ahead in Rearview Mirror in College Football

Ohio State detractors and Big Ten bashers won’t have to worry about Ohio State screwing up BCS championship game plans. The Buckeyes were whipped on all fronts at Purdue. Helmets smattered with buckeyes might intimidate some teams but the talent at Ohio State is not substantially better when it chooses not to play. Purdue ravaged Ohio State on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers forced five turnovers and sacked Terrelle Pryor five times. They had 24 first downs to Ohio State’s 12. In other words, after five consecutive losses, Purdue wanted it more than the Buckeyes and took it.

Three observations, first coach Jim Tressel needs to hire a coach that can make Pryor a better quarterback. All the talent in the world is useless without practical application. Second, Pryor needs to grow-up, the gliding into the end zone for two-point conversion and the behind the back basketball-style flip to bring Ohio State WITHIN eight points is better served with a lead, not when trailing. Lastly, don’t expect the Buckeyes to be overrated the rest of the year by oddsmakers, this team simply isn’t that good and finishes at Penn State, Iowa and at Michigan.

USC proved they deserve to be in national championship discussion and if they play like they did for three quarters at South Bend, Texas better start beating Big 12 teams with abandon. Though Notre Dame has closed the talent gap with the Trojans, wasn’t the feeling USC had 15 players that looked like they could play in the NFL, while the Irish had around six. Matt Barkley looks fantastic and being able to throw to TE Anthony Mc Coy and WR Damian Williams is a real privilege, especially against a Notre Dame secondary that couldn’t cover a piece of toast if they had a stick of butter.

Not sure if the Notre Dame offensive linemen stopped to shake hands with USC defensive end Everson Griffen, but if they did it was the only time they slowed him down all day. Safety Taylor Mays was exceptional and took away Irish tight end Kyle Rudolph (3 catches, nine yards). The last remaining challenge for the Trojans is at Oregon and that should determine Pac-10 title. If Pete Carroll’s crew plays the same or improves, the Ducks are in trouble.

Notre Dame can say what they want about closing the talent gap and all that nonsense. The Irish showed plenty of fight, but this was their opportunity and they came up short. What really matters looking ahead does this team have the character to close 10-2 or do they do what many expect and find a way to finish 8-4?

Really felt bad for Sam Bradford in the Red River Rivalry contest and if I’m an NFL scout, my urgency meter is really up on him. Twice he’s proven the lack of escape-ability from the shotgun. The same again was proven about Tim Tebow vs Arkansas. These quarterback’s are so comfortable receiving snap, feeling little pressure and just making one read and rip. When pressured, they lack the survival instinct of stepping up or avoiding the chaos around them and are easy targets for on-rushing linemen.

Coach Bob Stoops was 3-3 in 2005 and his team responded winning four of last five, how will this group perform? Coach Urban Meyer can thank his lucky stars Arkansas could not execute when it counted most, missing touchdown pass and field goal that would have added more pressure on the Gators. The toughest remaining game on the regular season schedule is at South Carolina and Florida will be favored in all other games. If the opponent can play defense, wouldn’t count the Gators as safe bet as Tennessee and Arkansas proved.

Iowa overcame 10-0 deficit at Wisconsin and took over the game with 17-0 second half. What was impressive about the Hawkeyes is they held the Badgers to 87 yards on the ground. This week at Michigan State and later at Ohio State appear to be the stumbling blocks. Grit and determination are what this Iowa team is about, but that doesn’t mean it holds up every time. Best guess if Iowa and USC win out, the Trojans would be 17 or more point favorites in the Rose Bowl.

Texas Tech didn’t overwhelm Nebraska statistically (259 yards to Huskers 285), but buried them on the scoreboard 31-10. This Big 12 matchup had two elements almost no one saw coming. Nebraska opened as 5.5-point favorites and were bet heavily to 11-point choice, before the market adjusted them to 10.5. Evidently the Cornhuskers are a good matchup for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight. The total of 58.5 was never in question. Coach Mike Leach will have to make coaching decision as backup QB Steven Sheffield throws a nice ball and is elusive an a runner. Taylor Potts is about ready to comeback from concussion.

It was just last week Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC, blah, blah, blah. As was noted, this isn’t typical Hokies defense and Georgia Tech proved just it, bruising and deceiving Virginia Tech for 309 yards on the ground in 28-23 upset as 3.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets option is on fire and here is the reason they might go 11-1 and be a solid bet. In their last two losses, Miami had 10 days to prepare for the option and LSU had basically a month in Chick-fil-A Bowl. All five remaining opponents have conventional one week.

Goal Line Observations – Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and should continue to stay a good bet thanks to improved defense in 2009….Idaho is not a fluke, too bad they have to play at Boise State….Pop Illinois out of the microwave, they are done. At 1-5 and 0-6 ATS, they are headed nowhere with that defense….This was presumed to be a down year for the Pac-10 with a dearth of quarterbacks. Yet out of nowhere youngsters are emerging. Matt Barkley is headed for stardom and Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Arizona’s Nick Folk combined for 838 yards in Wildcats come from behind 43-38 victory.

BCS Championship Wagering Preview

Finally! College football fans and football bettors have had to wait over a month for this day to arrive, the playing of the BCS national championship game. Along the way, we watched the Pac-10 surprise us, the Big Ten disappoint (again) and the elite of the Big 12 under whelm. We’ve listened to ESPN analysts give us mounds of information and been forced to stomach Dr. Lou and have been amazed at how little the Fox crew knows about college football. But none of that matters now, because Florida and Oklahoma are about to settle everything (we hope) on the field of play.

While the merits of one team having a shot for BCS title can be discussed vehemently, nobody can realistically argue these are not the two hottest teams to end the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow promised all of us after losing at home to Mississippi 31-30, nobody would play harder (You didn’t need YouTube to view this a thousand times) and he and his teammates made good on that promise as the Gators won last nine games by 36.4 points per game.

Oklahoma also had to show resolve and even when they did, it almost wasn’t enough. The Sooners lost to Texas (as everyone dressed in burnt orange is quick to remind the world) and had to do something the rest of the season that would make stand out, while keep on winning. All they did was average a sick 59.8 points per game the rest of the season, including passing the Big 6 0 in last five games. If you really think about, if Oklahoma had won the rest of their games, but averaged say 45 points a game, they probably would have never passed Texas.

We all know defense wins championships, but the best guess here is both coaches are setting up speed bumps or road blocks, knowing full well their is little either can do other than to cause confusion to slow down the other’s offense. Florida is stellar 10-2 ATS and 7-0 ATS against teams scoring 34 or more points and Oklahoma is 8-0 ATS after scoring 50 or more points.

On the year, Florida technically had a tougher schedule, meeting 10 bowl teams, compared to eight for Oklahoma. The Gators were 9-1 and 8-2 ATS, winning by 31.4 points per games. The Sooners were 7-1 and 6-2 ATS, winning by 29 PPG.

One absolutely delicious aspect of this matchup is the differences in the conferences during the regular season. In looking strictly at play within the conferences (excluding league championship games) the contrast couldn’t be any more stark. The SEC had two teams that scored 275 or more points in conference action (Florida and Alabama), compared to the Big 12, which saw seven schools pass the same point total. The average total score of a Southeast Conference contest was just over 46 points, while the Big 12 was 68 total points on the nose.

Bookmaker.com opened this title game at Florida at -3 and 72. After the wagering public got a look at how the each conference did in the bowls, they have moved the Gators up to five points, with the total dwindling to 69.5.

At this point, it becomes a matter of “what if”. This year’s Heisman winner Sam Bradford has been stupid good since losing to Texas, with 25 touchdowns and ONE interception. Only Texas and TCU “held” Oklahoma to 35 points and each was known for being able to pressure the quarterback. If Florida creates pressure up front with a few sacks and general steady pressure, Bradford might not be as confident in the pocket. Otherwise, the Sooners are 8-1 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Florida is in a similar, yet different battle to win this encounter. The Gators three lowest rushing total games came against Miami-Fl., Ole Miss and Alabama, all games Florida had difficulties getting the offense going. As great as it is to see Tebow scurrying around and trying to bulldoze people over, all it really means is the running game is not working and his receivers are covered. Chances are Bob Stoops would love to see Tebow as Florida’s leading rusher in this game. The Gators need to run the ball first and are 6-0 ATS when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt and 8-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season.

Oklahoma’s coach Stoops used to be known as “Big Game Bob”, however four BCS losses later, his reputation has been run aground and is 4-5 bowling, with only three covers. His counterpart Urban Meyer is 3-1 SU and ATS in bowls.

If we have learned anything from the BCS bowl games, it’s about starting after a long layoff. Texas, Penn State and Alabama were all late to the party, with the latter two never recovering and the Longhorns taking to the final seconds to secure victory. Conversely, a hot start propelled USC and Utah to relatively easy wins.

Since they started using bowl games to determine the national champions, only once has one conference won three in a row, which was the SEC in 1978-80, can Oklahoma prevent history from repeating?

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Wagering Outlook

Their may be encounters that will mean more this weekend to fans of particular teams, but no game will have greater importance on the national scope than this Big 12 battle. Texas Tech can end some the drama by taking down once-beaten Oklahoma and essentially winning the Big 12 South, with just Baylor at home and holding all the tie-breakers. Oklahoma can screw up the Big 12 big time by roughing up the unbeaten Red Raiders and if they win by 10 or more points at Oklahoma State next week, they would probably gather enough support to play in conference championship game, even though Texas had beaten the Sooners and they would have the same 11-1 record.

Senior signal caller Graham Harrell has had a special season and as opposed to other Texas Tech quarterbacks under coach Mike Leach, looks to have real NFL ability, needing to add a some weight. Being able to throw to receivers like Michael Crabtree makes his job easier, nonetheless a formerly underrated offensive line allows all the routes to develop and a trio of running backs with different skills makes them go. For the first time in Leach’s nine year tenure, he has a defense that makes stops and can prevent the other team from scoring. The Red Raiders are 5-4 ATS on the road versus ranked teams the last decade.

The Oklahoma offense has been boiling hot. In their last three games, they have averaged 47.3 points per game in the first half! Since losing to Texas, the Sooners offense has gone into another gear led by Sam Bradford and can control its own destiny of sorts. "Our team is in a great position," said Bradford. "We still have a lot of our goals out in front of us." The Oklahoma defense has been quite vulnerable to the pass (95th in the country), yet still ranks ahead of Texas Tech (99th) or Texas (112th) in quarterback controlled conference. The Sooners are 20-12 ATS in home finales at Norman.

Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS against ranked teams and the running game has been the difference for the increase in offensive production. Since netting 48 yards rushing against Texas, a very good Sooners offensive line has opened up holes that Oklahoma running backs have sauntered thru for 250 yards per game. Bob Stoops secondary may be lousy, but he will make sure to keep Harrell busy with a solid pass rush, something neither Oklahoma State nor Texas could do. Boomer Sooner is 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards play in three consecutive games and Texas Tech is 2-10 ATS on the road after out-gaining opposition by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games.

Besides having to play at Norman, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma 34-27 at Lubbock last season, ending their BCS title hopes and will face a team looking for payback. Do you really think coach Leach is worried? He’s not, after watching Oklahoma surrender over 327 yards passing thru the air against a bunch of average Big 12 teams. A big reason why Oklahoma has look so formidable of late is they have forced 15 turnovers in last four contests, have Harrell be careful passing the pigskin and yards and points should be plentiful. The Red Raiders are well aware of the Sooners prowess in moving the ball on the ground; however Oklahoma is 8-22 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game.

Bookmaker.com has home-standing Sooners as 7-point favorites with total of 75.5. The total is certainly inviting with the two schools a combined 14-3 OVER this season.

The visiting team is 5-3 ATS, though these encounters have not necessarily been close with the victor having a margin of 10+ points seven of last nine. Set aside four hours of your time if you plan on watching this one on ABC at 8 Eastern.