Major Conference Tournament Betting Trends

Hopefully you picked up the Conference Tournament Tendencies article focusing in on the leagues that started their tourney’s last week, as some of the trends uncovered really fared well, especially those dealing with totals. In that piece, I covered the smaller conferences. Here, I am back to address all of the action occurring this week, including the major conferences like the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC. Many bettors find the action this week to be even more exciting, or if you want to say, maddening, than the first days of the NCAA tournament. There will certainly be a lot to choose from, both at your sportsbook and on your TV. Make sure you consider the following trends before making your commitments.

Big East Conference

In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.

On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).

Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%).

Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).

A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

Atlantic 10 Conference

UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.

FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.

Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).

The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

Big 12 Conference
There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.

The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.

On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.

Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

Conference-USA

The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.

Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.

The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.

C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).

The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.

With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).

Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

Mountain West Conference

Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.

There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).

UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.

FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

Pac 10 Conference

The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.

The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.

FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.

UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.

The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

Big West Conference
The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.

More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.

The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

Big Sky Conference
The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.

There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.

The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.

FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

Big Ten Conference
For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.

There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).

FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.

Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.

DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.

LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.

Atlantic Coast Conference
ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.

UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.

How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.

Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.

Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.

The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

Mid-American Conference

FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.

The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.

Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.

The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.

OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

Southeastern Conference
The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.

Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.

In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.

Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.

UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).

In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

Western Athletic Conference
UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).

Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.

Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.

The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total.

Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.

Enjoy the action this week everyone, and be sure to check back next week for the key information you’ll need to sort out the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT brackets!

Written by Steve Makinen of StatFox.com.

Boise State tries to impress voters

This is the first of three games Boise State has on prime time Friday’s to convince BCS voters they deserve to move back up in the standings and keep fingers crossed those ahead of them falter in the coming weeks. This might be the last chance for the Broncos to be beaten during the regular season, down in Ruston, LA at Joe Aillet Stadium.

Boise State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) still has Idaho and Nevada, both of whom are having good seasons, however those games are at Bronco Stadium. Though Boise State was never specifically challenged in road games at Fresno State and Tulsa, they had to play the full 60 minutes in each case to secure victory. If quarterback Kellen Moore continues to play at such a high rate of efficiency (24 TD’s-to-2 picks ratio), the Broncos will be nearly impossible to stop, especially with its Top 10 defense. The Broncos’ backers could almost be accused of peculation with Boise’s 35-18 ATS record as WAC favorites of 10 or more.

This is Louisiana Tech’s only home game in five week period and what an opponent to match up with. At least incentive should not be an issue, especially before the home fans. The Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season and 9-1 (6-2 ATS) since last facing Boise State on their own turf.

To have chance for the upset, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 3-4 ATS) has to have quarterback Ross Jenkins play at an extremely high level. His backup, redshirt freshman Colby Cameron, is also expected to see playing time, as he has impressed the coaches in recent weeks. Running back Daniel Porter and receiver Phillip Livas were both injured last week against Idaho and are game time decisions. The defense needs to force stops and create chaos against normally composed Broncos. Having Boise State being unmotivated wouldn’t hurt.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Louisiana Tech as 21-point underdogs with total of 50. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under coach Derek Dooley and 4-1 ATS hosting Boise State. However, since 2002, Louisiana Tech 4-15 ATS vs ranked squads.

Boise State has more good numbers than George Clooney’s cell phone for dating purposes. The Broncos are 14-3-1 ATS the last two seasons and are 8-1 ATS on the road. When everything is clicking, Boise State is 14-3 ATS after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games, with winning margin of 28.5 points per game.

Look for this WAC dispute on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern, with Boise State 11-2 UNDER in November road games.

Tulsa looks for the upset of Boise State

More than one person circled this game as a potential downfall for an unbeaten season for Boise State. The Broncos have only played one real complete game, which was against Bowling Green, winning 49-14. Boise State’s (5-0, 4-0 ATS) quest for perfection continues in Tulsa, where another offensive-minded team is awaiting.

It will be of interest to see the mood of the Broncos after a sleep-walking 34-16 performance against Cal-Davis at Boise, gaining a season-low 101 yards on the ground.

“I’m frustrated with a couple different phases,” Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. “Too many penalties, when you can’t score inside the 4 and 5 yard line when you have multiple tries, that’s frustrating.

“We’ll have their attention without question here and get a few things corrected.”

Coach Peterson would never say publicly, but he knows this is great opportunity to showcase his team for the pollsters, to a national cable audience against a 4-1 Tulsa club that has respectable reputation nationally.

Boise State’s 21st ranked defense is sure to be tested by Tulsa, though this is not the offensive juggernaut of the last few seasons. Tulsa offense averages 414.2 yards per game (35th), however that is against defenses that have allowed 413 YPG. In other words, the Golden Hurricane (3-1 ATS) is only average based on the competition.

Boise State needs to do a better job finishing scoring drives. They have scored touchdowns on just 16 of 27 red-zone trips, including six visits that resulted in zero points. The Broncos have covered the spread seven straight times and nine of last 11 and are 6-1 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

Tulsa needs a fast start to grab the momentum, which in absorbing challenge since nobody has scored in the first quarter against Boise State. Quarterback G.J. Kinne, ranks seventh in FBS passer rating (don’t ask how that works) and has thrown for 1,142 yards with 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions. Tulsa has been balanced in getting into the end zone with nine rushing touchdowns and 11 through the air. The Golden Hurricane has three prime time contests ahead, but a win here brings a great deal of attention to team that is 6-2 ATS as home underdog since 2003.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Boise State posted as 9.5-point favorites, but the Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in the first of two road games. Coach Peterson’s squad is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game on the season. Tulsa’s defense ranks 27th nationally at 299.2 yards per game and can’t afford a shootout since they are 3-13 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last three seasons.

These teams were WAC partners earlier this decade, with Tulsa 0-4 and 2-2 ATS. This is a rare treat for Coach Todd Graham’s squad and Tulsa is 7-3-1 ATS hosting Top 25 teams.

ESPN has the coverage commencing at 8 Eastern.

Louisiana Tech's defense up against Hawaii

With 16 starters returning from a bowl team in 2008, the Bulldogs were considered a sleeper team that might challenge Boise State for the WAC title. Louisiana Tech’s (1-2, 0-2 ATS) loss to Auburn was hardly a shocker and they were underdogs at Navy, however it has been the margin and yardage differences that have brought a frown to Ruston, LA fans.

The Bulldogs lost to Auburn 37-13 and were outgained 556-245 as 12-point underdogs. We have since learned the Tigers are about as good as anyone in the country offensively this season. Louisiana Tech took a 14-0 lead at Navy and never scored again in 32-14 thumping, as the Middies running game piled up 290 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs knocked off Nicholls State 48-13, but that did little to quell the uncertainty.

After three games, the Bulldogs ranked 118th (out of 120) against the run in the country. Now comes the crazy part, after three games being road-grated, their rushing defense will undoubtedly improve against pass-happy Hawaii (2-1, 2-0 ATS).

“Everything we’ve been doing for three weeks, we just say, ‘Forget about it. It doesn’t work anymore,’” Coach Derek Dooley said in the Monroe News Star. “Now we have to switch our personnel around, switch who is in the game, and change the whole scheme. … It’s not like they’re having to learn a whole new defense, but everything’s different. It’s four-wide, it’s throwing it every down.”

If coach Dooley sounds a little exasperated, he probably is because he set high goals for this team. The Bulldogs will need to generate a consistent pass rush against Hawaii, but only have two sacks on the year. Last year’s running game that averaged 187 yards per game on the ground, has stalled at 97.3 YPG (104th) and this team isn’t good enough to win without a running game and is 8-21 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

It’s starting to look like business as usual as Hawaii opens WAC play, being the top team in the country in pass offense at 423.3 yards per game and sixth in total offense behind the arm of quarterback Greg Alexander. He has some outstanding targets to fire to in Kealoha Pilares and Rodney Bradley, for a squad that is 9-3 ATS in last dozen lined contests.

This is the Warriors third straight road game and has a defense that is being rebuilt with only two starters back. They squandered leads at UNLV and lost 34-33 as 7.5-point underdogs. DiamondSportsbook.com has Hawaii as 4.5-point underdogs with total of 54.5 and they are 2-10 ATS as underdogs with rest. Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS at Joe Aillet Stadium since 2006, but is 1-4 against the number when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

The former Rainbow Warriors are 18-6 OVER after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 OVER in recent WAC matchups.

This game is being telecast on ESPN2 at 8Eastern, with Louisiana Tech 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS against Hawaii, which included 45-44 OT loss two years ago at home as 28-point underdogs. The loser of this game has a long road to the postseason; the winner emerges as one of the top threats to Boise State.

Conference Tournament Tendencies

It’s March and the Madness began on March 3rd with some conference tournaments tipping off. There are some tendencies that different conferences have shown in the past. While knowing what happened at a certain frequency in the past does not ensure that pattern will continue in the future, I believe it is an additional tool that handicappers can add to their arsenal in their endeavors to make money betting on sports.

I looked at the results of all lined conference tournament games since the 1997-98 season, unless noted differently. In the overall records, I included the results of 33 games from conferences that aren’t lined on a regular basis, such as the Atlantic Sun and Big South. I compared the higher seeded teams versus the lower seeded teams, which does not always necessarily mean I was comparing the team that was favored over the underdog. For clarity, a #2 seed is the higher seed when playing a #7 seed.

It is a lower seed world in the ACC with a 54-41 56.8%, ATS record. There was also a lower than normal straight-up mark of only 64.6% of the higher seeds winning outright.The Atlantic 10 saw the higher seeded squads prevail at a nice 57.8% ATS rate, 67-49, coupled with a 86-33, 72.3%, SU mark.

The Big 12 had a higher rate of the better-seeded teams winning outright, 74.6% coupled with a small bias to the Under at a 54.5% clip.The longest post-season conference tournament belongs to the Big East with all 16 teams participating. It starts March 10th and runs for five consecutive days. Nothing noteworthy except for the lowest success rate for the higher seeds to win straight-up, 63.1%.

Nothing worthy of reporting for the Big Sky Championship except that only the top six schools get in with the #5 and #6 seeds playing at the homes of the #4 and #3 seeds respectively on March 7th. Those winners travel to Ogden March 10th for the conclusion of the tourney.The Big Ten showed a much more competitive landscape with the lower-seeded teams covering at a 57.8% rate. Not surprisingly, but this slow-paced conference saw the Under happen 56.2% of the time.

The Big West has been a very good spot for totals players with a 63.6% Under rate. However, the Colonial Athletic Association outdid the Big West playing the Under, at 68.7%. Conference USA kept with the prevailing totals trend with a 60-38 Under record, 60.2%.

The Horizon League Basketball Championship began Tuesday, March 3 with the first round being played at the campus sites of the #4,5,6 and 7 seeds. On Friday the second round happens with Tuesday’s winners advancing to Indianapolis and the court where Gene Hackman had his players measure the height of the baskets in the movie “Hoosiers”, Hinkle Field House at Butler University. The number one seed has won 15 of the previous 29 league championships including each of the last four. Not surprisingly, the straight-up record overall is 77.7% with an impressive ATS mark of 59.3% since the 1997-98 tourney, back when it was known as the Midwestern Collegiate Conference.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s tourney tips off Friday, March 6, with the bottom four seeds playing the first round. This has been a play on the higher-seed tournament with those squads covering the point spread 61.4% of the time while winning straight up 79.1%. Once again we have a prejudice to the Under at 56.4%.

The Mid-American Conference is celebrating its tenth year of holding the tournament in Cleveland and starts March 10th. The higher-seeded teams have beaten the number set by the oddsmaker 58.6% of the time. For a change, we find the Over cashing tickets at a 57.5% clip in the MAC.

Beginning Thursday, March 5th, in St. Louis is the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. We are back to strongly considering the Under with a historical 64.3% track record and a slight bias to the higher seed at 54.1%.

The Mountain West has only been around since the beginning of the 1999 season. Supporters of the lower-seeds smile frequently in the MWC with a 58.6% ATS record. This has been an “Over” conference with 56.1% of the games going over the lined total.

Another early tourney that started Tuesday, March 3rd is the Ohio Valley Conference affair with four games at the home venue of the higher seed. Those winners move Friday to Nashville. Nothing noteworthy from an ATS perspective but the Under does happen at a 62.1% rate.

The PAC-10 stopped their tournament after a four-year run ending in 1990. The tourney was given a second life starting with the 2001-02 season. In those tourneys since the rebirth, the higher seed has covered the point spread a respectable 57.4% of the time with 59.3% of the games going Over the posted total.

With the results from the 1997-98 season on, the Southeastern Conference has also had a spate of Overs, 61.6% to be exact. The higher seed only wins straight-up 64.2% of the time but does cover the linesmaker’s number at a 55.9% frequency.

The only thing you need to know about the Southern Conference Tournament since 1998 is to bet the Under. If you had done so blindly, you would have won 70.4% of your wagers. The Sun Belt Conference’s bottom ten teams start their tournament at the campus of the higher seed on Wednesday, March 4th. The winners of those games travel to Hot Springs to start back up on March 8th. The higher seeds win outright 73.1% and are 57.8% ATS.

A healthy 61.2% of the games go Over the total.The Western Athletic Conference has no edge to report in their tournament games. The WAC starts tourney play in Reno, NV March 10th.

Since the 1997-98 season, the West Coast Conference Tournament has produced 60.5% ATS winners on the higher seeds with 54.3% of the games topping the lined total. This year the WCC moves to a completely neutral site in Las Vegas with tip-off Friday, March 6th.

In looking at all of the tournament games for the conferences broken down by the line of the higher seed, big favorites of 15.5 to 19.5 points covered the point spread 54.8% of the time but faves of 20 points or more only won ATS 38.8%. At 15 points and below, I normally break down the groups by possession, three-point increments. Teams laying 12.5 to 15 points only had a success ATS rate of 43.5%. However, the sweetest area was the 9.5 to 12 point faves beating the number 61.5% of the time. No other line-group had a 54% or better rate, betting on or against, except for two-possession underdogs, getting 3.5 to 6 points. No, it wasn’t favorable to the dogs as they only beat the spread 43.1% of the time while winning 31.8% of the games outright.

As for tendencies in totals, the only 4% or more variance from 50% was with lined totals of 160 or higher, 57.1% Under, and a 55.7% Under rate with games lined in the 130’s.

The non-regularly lined conferences had interesting marks in the games that have been lined in the past few years. While the higher seeded team had a 20-12 SU mark, their ATS record was a dismal 11-21. The Under posted a 19-13 record.

Regarding games that were played in a venue that was a true home-court advantage, other than a SU record of 76.7%, overall there was nothing noteworthy. However, breaking it down by the line of the game, home favorites of 9.5 to 14.5 points covered the point spread 61.6% of the time, 45-28. There were only 6 outright upsets out of the 74 game sample. Big faves of 15+ points still covered 55.6% of their games. Home faves of two possessions, 3.5 to 6 points, also did well at a 56.9% rate. The same can’t be said for home teams from pick’em to 3-point faves as they covered the point spread just 38.7% while winning SU only 53.1% of the time. Underdogs on their home court only won straight-up 34.6% of the games while covering an exact 50%.

Enjoy the next five weeks. For college hoops fans, this is the best time of the year.

Jim Kruger of Vegas Sports Authority did the research for this article.

Hunting for Hoops Winners Can Be Done

With football over for yet another season, unless the Pro Bowl is part of your betting plans, it is time to turn full attention to college basketball wagering. With Wednesday, Thursday and especially Saturday cards often cumbersome because of the sheer volume of games, it can be wise to shave the number of contests down to more manageable numbers. How this can be accomplished is finding particular conferences that have proven to have value.

By now, every league is either at or halfway past the midpoint of conference slate and solid information can be found to utilize for wagering purposes. Three conferences in particular have yielded distinct info, which should be followed, with the intent of cashing in for significant profits.

The Sun Belt Conference is like a few other leagues in college landscape. The Big Ten has 11 teams, the Atlantic 10 has 14 squads and Denver U. and North Texas (Denton) would hardly be considered part of anybody’s list of vacation spots in the Sun Belt region. Fortunately, the goal isn’t to be like the late George Carlin and make sense of the arrangement, instead just to study the facts.

Presently, the Sun Belt ranks 19th in the latest Sagarin Ratings in college hoops among the 33 conferences. With the SBC a bit unwieldy with its 13 teams, certain numbers can be skewed in determining different factors. For example, a conference with vast number of universities could see the records of home team wins watered-down by those occupying the lower regions. The Big East is a perfect example of this, with the division between the have’s and have-nots, roughly the size of our domestic and foreign trade imbalance.

Sun Belt home teams have won 63 percent of conference games (41-24) which is about average overall. This is where things get interesting. Only one team in the league has a defense that allows below 40 percent shooting (39.8), and that is Arkansas State who comes in at 13-8 and .500 in league play.

Thus we establish the SBC is not a great defensive league, which leads to the profit point we are seeking. Sun Belt home teams cough up the cash with great regularity, sporting a 23-41-1, 35.9 ATS mark. With just a few better teams like Western Kentucky, Ark-Little Rock and Middle Tenn. State, the rest are pedestrian, with no atrocious teams, save Florida Atlantic.

This looks to be a real opportunity, with one caveat. Denver University, year in, year out, is one of the toughest stops in the Sun Belt because of the altitude. This season the Pioneers are 4-1 SU and ATS in league action playing at Magness Arena. Subtract Denver’s wins and are wager on SBC road teams improves.

The Western Athletic Conference from time to time makes some noise and is ranked 13th by the Sagarin numbers. Utah State has just one blemish on the docket this season, losing to BYU. In truth, the rest of the conference record-wise leaves much to be desired. Nevada and Boise State are both not as strong as a year ago and the rest of the other six schools are at or below .500.

In league play, the home teams have among the worst records in all of college basketball, with a 20-15 record (57.1 percent). In studying the WAC’s numbers, all the teams are ordinary to slight better than average defensively, and offensively, most teams shoot the ball relatively well. The point is, other than Utah State, every team is capable of beating another home or away. This presents a splendid opportunity to play against home teams who are 12-23 against the spread.

Earlier, imbalance was mentioned in different conferences, where the best teams are Dick Vitale “Flat-out superior”. This appears to be the case in the Colonial Athletic Association, where Northeastern, Virginia Commonwealth, George Mason and Drexel are far above the rest, especially playing on the own courts.

These four teams have compiled a 20-3 record in league play at home and are sensational 17-6 ATS against all CAA comers, including playing among themselves.

In these recessionary times, we all have to work a little harder to have what we need and as this proves; the extra work can place more money in your pocket.

Betting Home Courts in College Hoops

The home court advantage in college basketball varies widely. Some handicappers automatically assign a number to everybody’s home court, usually 3 to 5 points. The well-known statistician, Jeff Sagarin, whose work appears in “USA Today”, usually has it pegged on average as slightly less than four points.

It is my belief the value of the home court varies among teams. Certain conferences even show tendencies on how teams generally perform as a home favorite or underdog. One of the biggest challenges in handicapping college hoops is the sheer number of games to wager on. With way over 200 lined teams to wager on, I will look at any thing that gives me an edge. Using the generalization of conference tendencies helps me eliminate some games or put them on my “short list” for further evaluation.

For example, UC-Riverside is a team I believe is worthy of backing and recently made my “play on” list. They were visiting Denver University. Denver is on my list of not to play against at home. The reason is Denver is 29-13 against the point spread at home the past four seasons, a 69% success rate. UCR was a 4 to 5.5 underdog but ending up losing and failing to cover, albeit it was a close game. Even though I am looking to play UCR, I am not going to play them against a team with such a great home court ATS record as Denver’s.

Other teams with excellent home ATS records the past four years are Weber State, 29-13, Southern Miss, 25-13, 65.8%, Mississippi State, 35-20, 63.6%, and Bradley, Tennessee, Wright State, and New Mexico, all above 60%. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, ACC powerhouses North Carolina, 39-18, 68.4%, and Duke, 35-23, 60.3%, are money-makers at home.

Many people call great winning straight-up records at home a “great home court advantage”. Well, to the average fan that is correct who doesn’t care about point spread results. To the sports bettor, a great home court straight-up record might even mean a team is good to bet against on their “strong home court” as the linesmaker might be giving their opponents extra value. Wisconsin has a great home record straight-up, 141-14, over the past ten seasons going into this year. I easily can see playing the Badgers in a short-lined game or as a home underdog. However, over the past four years Wisconsin is only 28-29 ATS in home lined games. Their SU record is impressive, 64-5, over those four years, but the ATS mark is what I look at first.

As mentioned above, let’s look at some of the conference tendencies we have discovered.

Since the 2004 season, The Big 12 has had a very good record when they are at home lined at pick’em or a very short favorite up to -2.5 points: 30-13, 69.8%. The home favorite advantage stops when Big 12 teams are laying 7 to 17 points as at that level the home squad can only muster a 44.2% coverage rate, 68-86. Home dogs fare fairly well in the Big 12 as home teams getting 3 or more points but less than 10 are 40-29, 58.0%.

Another strong home court advantage in conference play shows up in the Big Ten where single-digit home favorites are covering the spread at a wallet-fattening 58.9% of the time, 99-69, since 2004. However, those point spread wins don’t come very easily when the home favorite is laying double-digits. Teams laying ten-points or more have cashed tickets only 43.7% of the time even though straight-up the highly-favored home team has won 105 out of 108 games.

Something many sports bettors don’t do is to look at lined totals in college hoops. Maybe this stat will have you start paying more attention to playing totals: In Big 10 conference games involving double-digit home favorites, the Under is 61-36, 62.9%. If the points being laid is 14 or more, the Under improves to 68.2%.

The Big East is one of the worst conferences overall when it comes to home-court advantage. With 16 teams in the basketball version of the conference, there is a larger gap in quality of the top-tier and bottom-rung teams. Home underdogs of any point spread have only covered the number 43.7% of the time over the past four seasons. An interesting side note is the Over wins 54.2% of the time when a home dog in league play is involved.

A strong home-court advantage is not the case in the Big East when the home team is a single-digit underdog covering the spread only 43.2% of the time. The Big East is such a large league that many times there is a bigger difference in talent from the top to the bottom and the number of sub-par teams.

In direct contrast to the Big East, the Sun Belt Conference has an exceptional record for home dogs since 2004, 49-34 ATS, 59.0%. The sweet spot is when a home team is getting 3 to 6.5 points, 22-9 ATS, 71.0%. The geographic range of the SBC is rather large stretching from Denver to the tip of Florida. Some of the smaller cities where schools are located also helps make travel a challenge.

Of course if you want to believe that a fair amount of distance traveled to a road destination is a factor, then you would want to look at the WAC. There are schools located in Louisiana to Idaho to Hawaii. There is a super-sharp differential between the point spread record of home favorites and underdogs at home. Regardless of the line, WAC teams laying points at home in a conference game have only covered the number 42.8% of the time since the 2004 season. The best line to bet against home faves is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 64.8% winners taking the road team and the points.

Road favorites in the WAC don’t do well either, 39-51, 43.3%. Again, the good spot to go against these favorites is when they are favored by less than seven points to pick’em, 26-36, 41.9%. However, a past trend you should know about is these WAC road teams giving less than seven points are 26-12 Over the lined total, 68.4%.

I imagine a lot of people assume that teams traveling to Hawaii for a conference game helps skew the numbers believing the visiting team will be too tired and the influence of the time zone difference. Actually, over the past four seasons, Hawaii has virtually an exact .500 ATS record in conference play. Yes, their straight-up record is very good, but the point spread is the great equalizer and you know the oddsmaker is shading the line to Hawaii’s side in home games on the island.

In conference play, an exceptional home court advantage when the line is a pick’em to a 2.5 point underdog occurs in the Southeastern Conference. Small home dogs are 22-12, 64.7%, against the spread since 2004 in the SEC. The straight-up record isn’t bad either at 19-15. With the line that small, the teams are very evenly matched and the advantage of playing at home comes through.

However, in SEC games if the two teams aren’t as evenly matched and the home team is getting 3 to 7 points, the ATS record of the home team is a losing 21-31, 40.4%, and a dismal 18-34 SU, 34.6%.

For you totals players, a great spot in SEC games that wins 73.9% of the time since 2004 is to take the Under when a home team is favored by 14 or more points.

The Mid-American Conference has a very strong home-court advantage overall. However, it really is because of the huge quality difference between a few good squads and three to six squads that fall below 200 in college RPI ratings. Home favorites in MAC games over the past four seasons are winning ATS at a 58.6% rate, 157-111. Teams from pick’em to 2.5 point favorites are virtually .500, 28-30 ATS. However, with such a wide differential in the top MAC squads and the bottom-feeders, you would assume home dogs don’t do so well. Overall, the past four seasons home MAC dogs are covering 47.6% of the point spreads.

Knowing the true value of home courts helps the sports bettor gain an edge for profitability.

Author Jim Kruger is the brains behind Las Vegas Sports Authority.