Showing posts with label Mark Buehrle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Buehrle. Show all posts

Hump Day Stuff after 3-0 day

Pulled out the old Devo album (Whip it, whip it good) for a 3-0 Tuesday. We can actually improve on that number today with two plays from system that over 90 percent. The Top Trend takes place on the South Side of Chicago and the Free Play is in the Queen City. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday- The Reds rallied for two runs in the bottom of the eighth to defeat the Dodgers, 11-9. Cincinnati has six wins this season, and all have come in their last at-bat, tying a modern major-league record. Since 1900, only one other team posted each of its first six wins in its final turn at the plate: the 1970 Giants.

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Free Baseball System -1) Play Against all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250, with AL batting average of .265 or less, against decent starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), who are batting .225 or worse over their last five games. This system is incredible 44-4 and says to go against the Orioles and Rangers.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the Pale Hose are 15-2 when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Steve got us a winner and is banking on the Dodgers to do the same.

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MLB 's Best and Worst Pitcher in April

Gave our friend Marc Lawrence a call to talk a little baseball and see what he is up to with college basketball windowing closing. We got talking about the importance of starting pitchers and bullpens when it comes to wagering on the big leagues. We both agreed you can’t win the pennant in April but you can certainly lose it with a sluggish start and weaknesses exposed.

At Marc’s Playbook.com, he has for the last several years compiled a list of good and bad pitchers per month and he shared that list with me. Below is the complete list, along with why each of them performs in this manner.

APRIL GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Beckett, Josh 10-4
Buehrle, Mark 10-3
Greinke, Zach 10-5
Hernandez, Felix 10-4
Hudson, Tim 8-3
Looper, Braden 12-3
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 8-4
Moyer, Jamie 10-5
Penny, Brad 10-4
Saunders, Joe 11-3
Wainwright, Adam 11-4
Webb, Brandon 11-1

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arroyo, Bronson 5-10
Zito, Barry 4-10

Arroyo – Throws strikes and changes speeds on his fastball continually. Likes to mix in changeup and eats up a number of innings. He is more a feel pitcher and with the colder weather in the opening month, the baseball tends to be slicker which doesn’t give him as much command, explaining his slow starts.

Beckett- Power pitcher with drop and drive delivery. His strength is low to mid-90’s fastball with one of the best curveball’s in baseball.

Buehrle – Doesn’t impress many radar guns topping out around 87 MPH, but is expert at working both sides of the plate and like most left-handers has tailing fastball to right-hand batters. Changeup and slow curve makes fastball appear quicker.

Greinke – Skill and ability finally meshed as Greinke started last season 6-0 in 2-009 with late-1960’s Bob Gibson-like like ERA of 0.40. Tremendous arm, with a real feel for how to pitch, who put it all together to be AL Cy Young winner in 2009 on a bad ballclub.

Hernandez –Still only 23 years old, King Felix has mid-90 fastball and superior breaking pitches. He also a heavy sinker that batters have said is like “swinging and hitting a bowling ball”. That’s a pitch most hitter’s don’t want to swing at when the temps are in the 30’s and 40’s.

Hudson – Coming off Tommy John surgery, interesting to see how he starts.

Looper- Last reported as free agent.

Matsuzaka – Has neck injury rehabbing.

Moyer – Internet reports of Moyer being a rookie learning to pitch from Christy Mathewson (google this name) are unfound, as the lefty continues to confound batters with slow, slower and slower yet pitches, being able to spot them where needed.

Penny –The big right-hander could not have found a better place to resurrect his career. Working with pitching guru Dave Duncan should be a blessing for this flyball pitcher. Duncan will work with Penny not to overthrow and improve slow breaking pitches.

Saunders – Lost ability to work down and inside on right-hand batters and was tattooed frequently last season. Historically, fast starter and needs to for confidence reason on Angels club that needs him more this season.

Wainwright – The last two seasons has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball. Helps himself by being good hitter and won Golden Glove for fielding.

Webb – Out indefinitely coming back from shoulder surgery.

Zito – Similar to Arroyo, doesn’t throw hard, but not as good at spotting pitches. Has big loopy curveball that is batting practice material if it doesn’t break to the knees. Can sail along for four innings and give up a five-spot in a manner of minutes.

Time to get over the Wednesday hump

A bad Colorado bullpen cost us 3-0 day, thus we move on. The Top Trend is 100 percent and is situated on the South Side of Chicago. The Best System is very good play at 56-13 and has delivered 83.3 percent winners this season also. Good Luck

What I thought yesterday – All this talk about the USC quarterbacks is making my ear drums hurt. Let’s start with the facts, Aaron Corp was the better player in camps and won the job until he got hurt. Though he didn’t play well against Washington, he’s played one college game. Matt Barkley was elevated to starter because Corp got hurt and was OK against Ohio State and very sharp under pressure as quarterback in game winning drive against the Buckeyes. He’s play two CFB games.

These are young quarterbacks, they need help. Where was the offensive line in Seattle stepping up like they did against Ohio State? Where was the defense when they couldn’t stop Jake Locker when he led Huskies to winning field goal? Don’t blame the quarterback, USC lost as a team and if they expect to win the Pac-10, they will have to do so as a team.

When Corp was going thru rough periods, didn’t you wonder how little USC coaches think of Mitch Mustain not to even entertain putting him in? Just think if Mustain had stayed at Arkansas, he be the starting quarterback in pass-friendly Bobby Petrino offense.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like Cincinnati, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games, against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. Since 2005, this tight system is 56-13, 81.2 percent, including 10-2 this year.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Consider Mark Buehrle a panjandrum, with the White Sox 12-0 when he pitches with the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal has had a number of runs here and expects the Tigers to tame the Tribe.

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In Search of Perfect Sunday

Another rock solid 2-1 Saturday, leads us into Sunday. The Best System is a little frightful backing a bad team, however 80 percent odds in your favor is exceptional. The LCC delivered yesterday and have very strong opinion on tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox matchup. The Top Trend is nearly solid gold with this pitcher on the mound. Good Luck

What I learned yesterday – Michael Cuddyer hit his 20th home run of the year to help lead the Twins to an 8-7 victory over the Royals Saturday night, becoming the fourth Twins' player to hit 20 homers this season (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel are the others). This marks the first time in 22 years that the Twins have had at least four players hit 20 home runs in the same season. In 1987, a year in which the Twins won the World Series, Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek and Kirby Puckett all went deep at least 20 times.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs like Cincinnati with a money line of +100 to +150 with a frosty starting pitcher- ERA of 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts, with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. In the last five years this system is delightful 40-10.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Mark Buehrle and the White Sox are 22-2 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season, in his career.

Free Baseball Pick -3) The Left Coast Connection has a somewhat surprising 8-0 consensus (in my opinion) playing the New York Yankees tonight.

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Planning on Winning Sunday at 3Daily Winners

Had a misstep yesterday with 1-2 mark and want to close the week on winning note. To do so have 85 percent system taking place in the Bay Area. Today’s Top Trend involves bad baseball teams, which is worse, keep reading. I’ll throw out my two cents (I actually will wager more) on Free Play. Good Luck

Thought of the day – While most people don’t believe the New York Yankees could lose four in a row to Chicago, don’t count me among them. The Yankees are playing very sloppy baseball, both physically and mentally and though C.C. Money Bags has good history against the White Sox, his recent starts have teams batting .317 against him. Mark Buehrle has poor history against Yanks, but you won’t see me betting against him on a Sunday at the Cell.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a scorching starting pitcher, with WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts. The pitcher is Cole Hamels, which means San Francisco could be hurting for system that is 51-9, 85 percent since 2007.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Washington Nationals are 0-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) I’m as hot as anyone right now with 21 winners in 28 games (not bragging just factual) and I like Toronto to toast Oakland.

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Seeking Fabulous Friday

Hotter than a handful of jalapeƱos, we go back to back 3-0. We’ll go for a trio of treys to start the weekend. Our opening salvo is a Best System play that is 37-6. One pitcher and his team are a collective 8-49 surveying a few Top Trends. Our Free Plays are 12-1 since last week and Sal goes for six straight. Good Luck.

Thoughts on Today – How sweet was Mark Beuhrle’s perfecto? What an amazing catch to boot, given the circumstances. Went to Snakes and Pirates game last night (I know, what a sorry existence) to see Dan Haren pitch. He wasn’t close to having his best stuff, but at least got run support, just not enough to give him the win soon enough. Granted it was the Bucs pitchers, nonetheless, you can see why people shouldn’t completely give up on Arizona. There are talented players to build around for the future.

Did you realize Oakland's Brett Anderson hasn't allowed a run in three starts? He's at Yankee Stadium tonight.

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY ON home favorites like Boston, with a money line of -125 to -175, who are pedestrian AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a decent starting pitcher with ERA of 4.20 or less, after a combined score of four runs or less. No its not as good as yesterday’s easy winner, but no whining about 86 percent system. (37-6)

Free Baseball Trend -2) It's just one play, but I found this fasinating. Zack Duke and Pittsburgh are 0-11 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season. In addition, they are 6-24 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and 2-14 on Friday's.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Sal’s 2-0 performance yesterday has him at 22-5. He's on board with Atlanta to make the Brewers punch-drunk.

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Seeking a Sensational Sunday

Ended up with .500 Saturday as my streak was shattered and a smokin’ Sal takes my place with Free Play. With yesterday’s Top Trend a Winner, uncovered another perfect one that is 10-0. The Best System returns at 33-8 in evening action. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday: Mark Buehrle got his 10th win of the season when he beat the Orioles on Saturday. It's Buehrle's ninth consecutive season with 10-or-more wins, tying the White Sox record set by Doc White from 1903 through 1911. Buehrle did not walk a batter in his win over the Orioles. It was Buehrle's seventh walkless start this year, tying him with Zack Greinke and Kevin Slowey for the American League high in that category. (Thanks Elias)

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Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities, against opponent with an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. In this spot, play against Texas for a system that is 33-8, 80.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Chicago Cubs are 10-0 in road games vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last three seasons, winning by an average of 2.5 runs per game.

Free Baseball Selection -3) My luck ran out, but Sal’s hasn’t. He 7-1 since baseball returned and likes the Phils to drown the Fish.

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MLB Series Wagering- White Sox at Twins

The Detroit Tigers lead the American League Central Division and their two closest pursuers will tangle in the Twin Cities, each with eyes on closing the gap before the All-Star break. After winning home series last weekend against the front-running Tigers, Minnesota (43-43, -4-1 units) had set its sights on gathering momentum on their nine-game homestand. Unfortunately, faster then you can say “Bruno”, that attempt has been blunted with three straight losses to the Yankees. The Twins have to pick themselves up and get ready to face divisional rival, who is playing very good baseball also.

The White Sox (44-41, +3.4 units) have won nine of last 12 to propel themselves past Minnesota and are 6-0-2 in last eight series. "The White Sox are playing very good baseball," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "If we go out and play like we did against the Yankees, we'll probably get our butts kicked here at home again. That's not too much fun." The Twins hope to recapture magic and are 40-17 at the Metrodome vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.

Chicago’s resurgence has been led by the offense and improved starting pitching. On the season, the White Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game (11th in AL), however in last dozen outings, they have tallied a terrific 6.3 RPG. Manager Ozzie Guillen understands that continuing to play well won’t be easy in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The Pale Hose have lost four in a row in Minnesota and nine of 10 overall. He’ll have to hope his Friday starter John Danks (7-6, 3.76 ERA) can provide a spark. Danks has 1.51 ERA in his last five starts and Bookmaker.com has Chicago as +115 underdogs, which suits Danks and teammates, who are 11-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Minnesota will counter with Nick Blackburn (7-4, 2.94), who has been moved up a day because of illness to Glen Perkins. Blackburn has been imposing in his own right; with 1.81 ERA the last nine times he’s toed the rubber, which has included three complete games. Blackburn and the Twins are 10-1 off consecutive losses.

Game 1 Edge: Twins

After being scratched Wednesday, Perkins (4-4, 4.38) is expected to give it go in Game 2. The left-hander is at his best when he has the opposition wearing out the Astroturf, beating ground ball after ground ball and keeping his infielders busy. Coming into the series, Minnesota had won 37 of last 54 games against teams with winning records and will want to reestablish that dominance.

Earlier, had mentioned the White Sox were receiving strong starting pitching and Gavin Floyd (6-6, 4.43) is another example. After throwing like the pitcher Philadelphia had given up on, Floyd put together a string of eight quality starts, which featured a glittering ERA of 1.39, before being roughed up for five runs in just over five innings at Kansas City in last start.

Watch for outcome of opening tilt, since Floyd is 4-0 if Chicago is off a loss. Otherwise the Sox are 7-2 in last nine as visitors and 15-3 in Game 2’s.

Game 2 Edge: White Sox

If the series is tied or Chicago had won previous two games, skipper Guillen has to like his chances going into All-Star break with a win. His starter is Mark Buehrle (9-2, 3.14), who will be flying to St. Louis after the conclusion of the contest to take part in fourth All-Star game. The lefthander has been nothing short of brilliant all year and the Twinkies have issues with lefties, posting 12-17 record coming into the series.

Scott Baker (6-7, 5.31) has not been nearly as proficient for Minnesota. If the former ace of the staff is unscathed one time thru the lineup, he’s done little to make adjustments going forward, which is odd for a veteran chucker, and is lit up the next time around. Difficult to like Baker in this spot, since he has 6.85 ERA in nine appearances against Chicago and Buehrle is 23-13, with 3.72 ERA versus the Twins.

Game 3 Edge: White Sox

This is a really challenging series to pick a winner, with Minnesota having history edge and Chicago playing better baseball. With the Twins not hitting as well and White Sox having more favorable pitching matchups, will support the Pale Hose and keep fingers crossed that is the correct wager.

Bookmaker.com series odds: Chicago +115, Minnesota -145

3DW Pick: White Sox

2009 Record – 4-7


MLB Series Wagering- Cubs at White Sox

The Windy City is about to get a whole lot windier with the Cubs invading the South Side of Chicago to face the White Sox. For the fans of these teams, this is really a treat, for the bragging rites of the town, no matter where they finish in the standings.

The Cubs (34-35, -8.6 units) return to Chicago having lost the first four games of their road trip. Once again it is a lack of offense, averaging three runs per game to start the 10-game trip. The North Siders are just 6-14 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span this season.

The White Sox (35-37, -2.4 units) are feeling pretty spry after beating the best team in baseball, the Dodgers, two of three times. “Most importantly, we won a series against a club like the Dodgers, who came into town with the best record,” Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik said. “Maybe that will give us some momentum at home. We haven’t been playing that great here.”

The Pale Hose have won four of five and seven of last 10, as they try to get back to .500 on the season. Their win yesterday ended 0-2-1 home series drought. The down side is they are 23-37 having won three of their last four games over the last two seasons.

The White Sox will face Randy Wells (1-3, 2.57 ERA), who is coming off his first major league victory after finally receiving run support. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, yet picked up just his first win last Sunday against Cleveland in 6-2 victory. He’ll face Jose Contreras (2-6, 5.23), who is 2-1 in last three starts with 1.23 ERA. DiamondSportsbook.com has the Cubs as slight -110 money line favorites with total of Ov.9. The Cubs have been poor series starters and are 4-13 in road games when playing on Friday’s since last year. The White Sox by contrast are 13-3 as a home underdog of +100 to +125.

Game 1 Edge: Cubs

Mark Buehrle (7-2, 3.17) is one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball. The left-hander and his Sox mates are 45-20 at US Cellular Field and he is 19-6 in interleague play. The month of June has been Buehrle’s time, with 27-11 record and the White Sox have won 20 of last 28 starts the lefty has made on Saturday.

Contrast those numbers with the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (4-5, 3.83) on the road. Coming into the series, the Cubbies are 5-16 in last 21 visitor assignments. This includes in part losing nine in a row in interleague play in road uniforms. Dempster and the Cubs have dropped 10 of 11 road games he’s started and if the Cubs lose on Friday, the two collectively are 0-9 off a defeat.

Game 2 Edge: White Sox

The final game of the series has Carlos Zambrano (4-2, 3.48) taking on John Danks (5-6, 4.43). Zambrano has complained he’s “bored” playing road interleague games, since he doesn’t get to hit with Cubs using DH. Big Z hasn’t pitched that way with 3-1 record and 2.78 ERA in away contests. Danks hasn’t been able to spot his pitches as well this year, being hurt by the long ball. The left-hander surrendered 15 home runs in 2008 and has allowed 11 already this year. Maybe pitching during the day will help, with his earned run average less than half playing in the afternoon compared to pitching at night (2.45 day vs 5.00 night).

Game 3 Edge: White Sox

These teams have taken turns sweeping each other the last two years off the Dan Ryan Freeway, with the Pale Hose taking all three a season ago. The White Sox have won four of last five and are playing better baseball at the moment. To borrow from Sox announcer Ken “Hawk” Harrelson, “Good Guys” take the weekend series.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Cubs +115, White Sox -145

3DW Pick: White Sox

2009 Record – 3-7