Dayton picked to fly home as NIT champions

At this point in time, not sure a college hoops team has a better nickname than the University of Dayton. The Flyers are flying by opposing teams in their four games in the NIT. For this reason, they are favored to be the best of the field when they take on North Carolina in Madison Square Garden for the title.

Dayton (24-12, 17-15-1 ATS) is a difficult opponent on many levels, they press on defense the entire game to force physical turnovers while anticipating the mental aspect of their performance will also cause teams to falter. Coach Brian Gregory has a veteran cast that he substitutes liberally, as much as 50 times a game. Every player has been taught to get the ball and go on any rebound or made basketball by the opposition and Dayton players fly down the court looking for easy buckets and slam opportunities. It’s not hard to figure why they are 11-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.

So how did Flyers lose a dozen games? The answer was in the semifinal win over Mississippi. Dayton held a few double digit leads; however their frantic style led to Rebels runs, as they took wild off-balance shots or just threw the ball away playing out of control. A patient offensive team can breakdown individual defenders since Dayton players seem almost bored having to guard a player more than 20 seconds. This would explain 4-13 ATS record away from home when they commit 14 to 18 turnovers in a game.

North Carolina (20-16, 13-20-1 ATS) was hoping to be playing in a different championship, but this one will do after the kind of year the Tar Heels have had. The story all year for Roy Williams’ team has been turnovers and no question point guard play has been part of the issue. Larry Drew has taken heated criticism and much deservedly so, yet upon closer inspection, he’s not the only player to blame.

Drew could do a better job in judgment terms, sometimes throwing errant passes or delivering the ball almost carelessly at his teammates feet, however enough of those in Carolina blue do mediocre work in using their bodies to receive passes, letting defenders work a side to slap the ball away or start into a move without catching the rock first. The last two examples occurred at least a half a dozen times in overtime win over Rhode Island, which was better than a third of the Tar Heels 17 miscues. It’s no wonder North Carolina is 3-10 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points game this season.

Dayton is a 2.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with total of 139. The Flyers pressure defense would appear to be a conundrum for North Carolina the way they handle the ball so loosely and the Flyers have sped to eight non-A-10 covers in a row. Dayton’s previous contest fell below stated total and they are 19-5 OVER after one or more Under’s over the last two seasons.
North Carolina doesn’t act all that thrilled about being in New York for this game, at least from the quote from coach Williams – “We put ourselves in this position because we didn't play as well as we needed to play, but then we accepted that and we tried to do the best we possibly could."

Though the season has not been up to typical Tar Heels standards, you cannot ignore the pedigree and they are 8-1 ATS in a postseason tournament games over the last two years and 11-3 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. UNC is 15-4 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

The NIT championship has a 7:00 Eastern start time, with Dayton going after third title (1962-68) and North Carolina its first since 1971.

NIT Semi-Finals Preview

College basketball’s craziness continues in New York in the National Invitational Tournament. While the NCAA tourney only saw one of its top seeds advance to its Final Four, none of the four teams that were seeded at the top of their bracket moved on to Madison Square Garden, the last three all losing at home in prior round. This sets up a wide open finish for the NIT.

(2) Mississippi vs (3) Dayton 7:00E ESPN2

The Dayton Flyers (23-12, 16-15 ATS) came stumbling down the stretch with 3-6 SU record (1-7-1 ATS), being eliminated in A-10 Tournament by eventual champion Xavier. The Flyers were picked to be conference champions, but limped to 8-8 record in a league that was much tougher than expected. For whatever reason, Dayton took flight and has won and covered three games in a row by a margin of 14 points per game.

The Flyers are still playing great defense (holding three teams to 37.3 percent or less shooting), but it has been the offense that has brighten up, shooting over 48 percent in this tournament compared to 44.6 percent on the season. Dayton is 8-1 ATS after playing consecutive road games over the last three seasons.

Mississippi (24-10, 18-11 ATS) saw Arizona State fall in their very first contest in the NIT, which opened the door to three encounters at home for the Rebels. They took advantage of the situation and are running away from the competition. Ole Miss has average 88 points per game, trying to force opponents to keep up, which they have not been able to do. Terrico White and Chris Warren are living up to reputation as a guard tandem. With defense not the primary concern, the Rebels are 12-3 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in back to back contests.

Bookmaker.com had opened Ole Miss as a favorite, but the line has fallen to a one-point underdog and the total of 142 seems about right if these teams were playing 35 minutes instead of 40. This should be true up and down affair, with plenty of dunks and speed from both clubs and Dayton is 19-10 ATS versus good shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their shots. Mississippi is 11-3 ATS away from Oxford off a home win scoring 85 or more points.

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island 9:20E ESPN2

Both of these teams come in the second semi-final really feeling good about their prospects after winning on enemy floors in really challenging environments, where not many opposing teams escape victorious. The Tar Heels (19-16, 12-20 ATS) went into a real hornets’ nest at Alabama-Birmingham and made enough offense plays while playing great defense (UAB shot 28.8 percent) to come away with the win 60-55 as 4.5-point underdogs. Much maligned point guard Larry Drew provided steady ball-handling and leadership. While coach Roy Williams would like to believe his guard is finally figuring out what he has been preaching all year, Drew offers this reason for improved judgment and play.

I just don't want to lose," he told the Raleigh New & Observer. "I just don't want to go home. I just don't want to stop playing. I've done my share of my things wrong this season, and I've made my share of mistakes. And I just want to turn things around for myself, and the team." North Carolina is sensational 7-0 AT in road post-season tournament games the last two seasons.

Rhode Island (26-9, 12-17 ATS) is at its best when it has a three-pronged scoring attack of Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are making outside shots, which has been the case in the NIT. The Rams overcame a big deficit at Virginia Tech and won going away 79-72. Rhode Island is 26-15 ATS in road games after one or more Over’s.

Similar to North Carolina, this tournament has been therapeutic for Rhode Island, who started 19-3 and looked like a sure-fire NCAA team in early February. The Rams are a one-point favorite with total of 150.5, but are 2-9 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this year. The Tar Heels are in the same boat against the spread with crummy 4-13 ATS record after one or more Under’s this season.

Common opponents might be a telling factor in the nightcap with UNC 2-2 & 1-3 ATS (+3.5 point margin) and URI 3-0 & 2-1 ATS, winning by 6.6 PPG.

CBB Tournament's Update

Friday March 12 6:40 AM

The madness of March continued last night and it might end up really costing different teams a NCAA berth. Kent State was the best team in the MAC this season and having seen them play, certainly was a team capable of beating a higher seeded team with their talent level. The Golden Flashes evidently thought they were ticketed for the MAC finals and were torpedoed by arguably the best backcourt in the MAC presently from Ohio U. The Bobcats duo of Armon Bassett (38 points) and D.J. Cooper built a 40-24 halftime time, survived Kent State comeback that got them to four points and cruised to 81-64 win as five-point underdogs.

If Kent State would have gotten to the conference finals and lost, it would hard to ignore them, however it has been since 1999 that the tournament committee has taken two teams from this league.

The Pac-10 is having its worst season in some time and all the publicity has been negative. Arizona State finished second in the conference, but most still felt they needed to win one more game to assure themselves of a bid. If you haven’t seen the Sun Devils play, their personnel can generously be described as limited, but coach Herb Sendek got more than what could have been expected, which also points towards the weakness of the league.

Right from the opening tip it was obvious Stanford had come to play and Arizona State had not. The Cardinal flew to 15-point lead with just under 12 minutes left in the game and won 70-61 as 7.5-point underdogs. That might have killed the Sun Devils tournament chances and the Pac-10 better hope Washington wins this tourney otherwise California might get the only bid.

One last thing on the Pacific 10. What this conference is going through might not be all that unusual in the future. Chances are UCLA, Arizona and USC will all improve in the next couple of years, yet this league is falling behind in recruiting, doesn’t have the “cool factor” and their tournament is joke attendance wise. Last night’s quarterfinals could not have had more than 3,000 people at the Staples Center, more resembling a SWAC contest than that of a major conference. In L.A. you could draw more than 3,000 people if word on the street was Kim Kardashian was going to jello-wrestle at Venice Beach.

It was not a good day to be on the favorites in the Big East and ACC on Thursday. In the Big Apple, Da'Sean Butler’s straight away, banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer helped one favorite make it to semis in the Big East, as third seeded West Virginia was among the four faves that failed to cover.

Only North Carolina’s ineptness in the final 10 minutes prevented all four underdogs from winning outright in the ACC’s opening day. Georgia Tech won 62-58 over the Tar Heels and either covered by a half point or was push depending on when they were purchased.

In Reno, NV, where sports betting is 100 percent legal, the favored teams from the WAC were 100 percent good, as the higher seeds all covered, and collectively beat the number by over 11 points on average, very chalky.

Overall, underdogs were 24-17 ATS on the day following teams that normally have lines on their contests, with 14 outright upsets.

You might rethink that future’s bet on Syracuse in case you missed it, no team has ever won the NCAA Tournament after losing first game in conference tourney.

Be a Betting Champion for Conference Tournaments

The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.

In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.

1) Choosing the right pooch

In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.

2) Underdogs in the right range

Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.

3) Don’t get carried away with revenge

One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.

Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.

4) When in doubt go Under

Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.

5) Road Warriors are safe bet

Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?

6) Numbers don’t lie

By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.

Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.

7) Follow coaches, just carefully

This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.

It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.

8) Need to know info

This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments. It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.

One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.

Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.

Trying to follow up 3-0

A quality 3-0 Saturday has us feeling pretty good today so let’s do it again. Have a nasty 87.9 percent system in the MAC tourney. In the Sun Belt, this team has yet to cover as a dog and Kendall had a solid Saturday and goes ACC huntin’ today with Best Bet. Good Luck

What I’m thinking today – Does North Carolina ever stink!

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ball State, who are average three-point shooting team (32-36.5 percent), against a good three-point defense (32 percent or less), after two straight games making 37 percent of their shots or less. This system registers at 87.9 percent, with 29-4 ATS record.

Free Basketball Trend - 2) Denver U. is 0-9 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by nine points per game.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Kendall’s is 22-10 this week and had winner here yesterday. He’s bangin’ Wake Forest as a short home favorite for top play.

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Say it isn't so, college hoops regular season ending?

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here, it seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charley Sheen’s marriage to his wife Brooke. This is the time for fun and action, where a 15-point lead at halftime can dry up faster than a puddle of water up against an Arizona March sun. So take advantage of situation and don’t worry about what you don’t have, rather what you are about to enjoy. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Mar. 6

West Virginia at Villanova (-3.5, 151) 12:00E CBS

The impact on the Big East standings would be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. West Virginia lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in low blocks finally caught up to them The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

The straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999.

Kansas at Missouri (+3, 145.5) 2:00E CBS

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and have one more treacherous stop left. They played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri’s in the Big Dance and an upset should improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and are 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

Syracuse at Louisville (+1, 145) 2:00E ESPN

The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut 11 years ago and they went on to win national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 and 10-1 ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0 ATS having won four of five games this season.

It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the Cardinals are 14-4, with rueful 4-9 ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.

Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1 ATS the last three years.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3.5, 138.5) 6:00E ESPN

The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them best chance for invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.

Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in first tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.

The underdog has been the correct side in seven of last 10 meetings.

North Carolina at Duke (-14.5, 146) 9:00E ESPN

Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.

It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.

This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997.

Sunday, Mar. 7

Florida at Kentucky ( ) 12:00E CBS

The Gators conclude the regular season with a matchup with their biggest rival Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.

This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.

Kentucky has won nine of last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.

Michigan at Michigan State ( ) 4:00E CBS

The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as away underdog.

Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with 5-5 ATS record.

Time for Lift off on Monday

Brought the truck back around to the winning side with 2-1 day and I warned Paul Buck Pitt might be in trouble. Today we have a super NHL trend that will bring a smile to hockey bettors face. The Best System is in the MAC at 28-6 and I have several weekend observations. Good Luck

What I thought today- It was quite a weekend in basketball for the sports bettor to take in the action and learn a great deal about the teams they were wagering on. You could make a case Georgetown has as good a three main players in guards Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and center Greg Monroe, as there is in college basketball. No question a number of others teams are more complete than the Hoyas, however when all three of these players are on, as Duke found out, G-Town is very good. The Blue Devils looked very tired and did an unusually poor job in transition defense. When Duke is getting beat, they are not receiving any contributions in the paint.

Louisville outscored West Virginia 71-46 in the middle 32+ minutes of their game against West Virginia and covered. However, they trailed 13-0 after the first three minutes of the contest and the Mountaineers used an 18-4 closing salvo to win 77-74. Credit coach Bob Huggins for using 1-3-1 zone defense in last four minutes plus to prevent the Cardinals from scoring. Louisville also got “homered” on brutal call with seconds remaining, which should have given them the ball back under their own basket.

In watching Baylor and Texas, it really appeared the Bears were the better team in upsetting the Longhorns in Austin. The Texas guards just don’t offer enough offensively unless you count turnovers and excessive dribbling as positives. One positive for coach Rick Barnes, Texas played with defensive intensity in the second half of this contest, something not witnessed in a couple of weeks. For the oddity of the weekend, Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh was 0-10 shooting in regulation play with no points and he scored the Bears first seven points in OT.

Kentucky went from seven point favorites all the way to 9.5 early Saturday afternoon before the marketplace settled on 8.5. It didn’t matter as the Wildcats were awesome on defense against Vanderbilt and DeMarcus Cousins showed he is going to be a tremendous NBA talent, probably after this his freshman season.

The Kansas and Kansas State’s contest lived up to all the billing with overtime thriller. The Jayhawks can turn to several different players in the context of a game and find a way to win. K-State is so aggressive, especially on the offensive glass. Coach Frank Martin might have played the final minute differently given more time to think about, taking what seemed to be an unnecessary calculated risk. Glad I was off that game, as the last second heave by the Wildcats was either a heart-breaking spread loss or cause for lucky celebration with Kansas State catching four points.

Illinois is not mentally strong and are a bad favorite play. Watched Pacific for about 25 minutes, they look like a good bet the rest of the way in the Big West as single digit favorites, which won’t be often. Couldn’t help but be impressed with Cornell. The Big Red wasn’t on TV, however the humiliated Harvard 86-50 on their own home floor. Cornell is 18-3 and 13-3 ATS and their only losses have come to Seton Hall, Syracuse and they realistically could have been then and now No. 1 Kansas in Lawrence, losing by five.

Go figure, North Carolina is 13-8, as is Connecticut, after both were upset this weekend. There is still time to improve record, but right now neither looks like they belong in NCAA Tournament and they are a combined 14-23-1 ATS.

It was lost on me why PGA Tour players were outraged Phil Mickelson used an old Ping wedge that technically could be deemed illegal, but was “grandfathered” in under the rules of golf and thus is 100 percent legal. Having worked in the golf business for a long time, I’m well aware that many professional golfers are not that much different than those that setup NASCAR rigs. In other words, you make the rules and I’ll take them as possibly as close as I can without “breaking the law”. Mickelson was playing by the rules and if he could get a slight edge on his competitors don’t blame him, blame the golfers that didn’t keep an old wedge around that was over 20 years old. Trust me, though these golfers are as honorable as any athletes in sports, if their golf balls went one foot past the number of feet per second rule on compression, very few would not use golf balls deemed “illegal”.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play On home favorites of 10 or more points like Bowling Green after scoring 55 points or less, against opponent after scoring 60 points or less three straight games. The Falcons are in 28-6 ATS winning situation at 82.4 percent.

Free Hockey Trend - 2) The most humorous NHL game tonight is Edmonton and Carolina, as each team has combined angles of 0-22 going against each other. Instead we’ll say to watch Anaheim, who is 9-1 against the money line in road games after two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) Ron is the newest member of the Left Coast Connection and he sees a tired and flat Lakers club in Memphis tonight and is backing the Grizz.

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Sports Bettors want a Super Tuesday

Two of the top five teams in the polls will be on the road and available for viewing this evening. No. 5 Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for a tussle in the Wolverine State, while newly anointed No.1 Kentucky heads into hostile territory against South Carolina, who is off a crushing defeat. College basketball sports bettors are working feverishly to make this a Super Tuesday.

Spartans claim Michigan as their state

Michigan State (17-3, 8-11 ATS) showed their true grit at Minnesota, finding a way to win 65-64, to run their record to 7-0 (5-2 ATS) in the Big 10. The Spartans despite shooting just 39.3 percent kept battling and nipped the Golden Gophers at the end. Michigan State has won 16 of last 19 games against Michigan (10-9 ATS) and coach Tom Izzo still carries the torch for Spartans fans to wallop the Wolverines. “I’m motivated by the fact that every alum in this country is motivated by it (beat Michigan),” Izzo said Monday. “I’m motivated by it because it stands in the way of us hopefully getting our goals at the end of the year.

The Spartans are 7-0 ATS off a close road win by three points or less, winning by 17.3 points per game.

Michigan’s overall season has been a massive disappointment in Ann Arbor at 10-9, with similar 8-7 ATS record. The Wolverines were believed to be primed to make the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year after an 11-year drought, however, with a pedestrian record and just two noteworthy wins over Ohio State and Connecticut (both at Crisler Arena), it’s a call to action for Michigan. Coach John Beilein looks at the rest of the season this way, “You got to go on a big string at the end of the year or you have to peak at tournament time and win the tournament.

“Those are our two options right now.” The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Michigan as 4.5-point home underdogs with total of 131, with team suffering from unrest. The Wolverines have lost last two games at Wisconsin and at Purdue, the latter without star guard Manny Harris after a one-game suspension for an undisclosed incident in Friday’s practice. Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog since last season and forward DeShawn Sims said the team was “back to normal,” after the suspension. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less or pick, however is 2-15 ATS as a visitor after playing a game as a road underdog.

ESPN has the coverage at 7 Eastern and Meechigan has covered four in a row overall.

Top team hits the road

John Calipari may be lugging around excess baggage from a couple of his stops, however two elements about him are absolutely true, he can recruit and he can coach. Since the new year, Kentucky (19-0, 9-8 ATS) has faced a number of challenges home and away and at every critical juncture of these games, the Wildcats never gulped and met adversity head on to emerge victorious. Opponents have started gearing defenses to corral John Wall and take away either Patrick Patterson or DeMarcus Cousins. Nonetheless, an Eric Bledsoe or Daniel Orton comes in and provides the necessary lift for a team. The Wildcats ambushed Arkansas Saturday 101-70 in a home game that wasn’t that close and they are 9-2 ATS on the road after playing a game as a home favorite.

South Carolina (11-8, 7-9 ATS) has been a mild disappointment and losing two returning starters hasn’t helped. (Injury and suspension) The cure turns out be the great equalizer, scoring machine Devan Downey. The senior guard has been outstanding all season and evidently saved his best for last, being unstoppable in SEC action (31.6 points per game). Coach Darrin Horn had to retool his squad and focused on defense and rebounding in the frontcourt to take some of the pressure off Downey. The Gamecocks have to slow down Kentucky since they are 1-9 ATS at the Colonial Center vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points.

South Carolina has to regroup after a heart-breaking last second loss at Florida 58-56, in which Downey drained 36 points. The Gamecocks are a lengthy seven-point home underdog and are 8-1 ATS off two straight losses against conference rivals over the last three seasons. Top-ranked Kentucky is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS roll in Columbia and is 9-2 ATS on the road playing only their second contest in eight days since last season.

This SEC showdown is set for 9 Eastern on ESPN, with South Carolina 0-7 all time taking on No.1.

Oh how the mighty have fallen

North Carolina (12-7, 6-11 ATS) has been an 8.5-point or more favorite over N.C. State (13-7,10-7-1 ATS) in last seven meetings, but tonight they might be a generous two-point choice in Raleigh against Wolfpack team that actually has better record. The Tar Heels will look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat and are 9-3 SU and ATS at N.C. State.

ESPN announcer swap worth listening to

For a second straight year, ESPN will flip-flop its top announcing teams from college and pro basketball to do games in the other sport. Last year Dick Vitale and Dan Shulman doing a NBA game was honestly no big deal, since Dicky V and Shulman have done games in the past and Vitale’s delivery doesn’t come across the same in pro venue with quieter surroundings.

However, Mike Breen, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will be calling a college game again and they offer different insights, since they have a pro mentally and view the game from that point of view. Their player and coach opinions are interesting and their comments (at least from last year) about collegiate referees were hilarious.

Wake Forest at North Carolina 7 Eastern

The main story line the trio is likely to follow is what is wrong with the Tar Heels. With a 12-6 record, North Carolina doesn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25 and their under-performing ways are further shone with 6-10 ATS record. Since returning to Chapel Hill, coach Roy Williams has never suffered a three-game losing streak, however the answers as to why they are bumbling are present.

North Carolina doesn’t value the possession of the basketball and despite trying to play a faster pace like previous Tar Heels teams; the guard play isn’t there to do so. Guards Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard are part of the reason North Carolina averages almost 17 turnovers a game and the front court players though talented, are not especially good at creating in the half court. Look for Wake Forest to dial up pressure from the opening tap, since the Tar Heels have fallen behind by 20 points in each of their last two games and are 7-20 ATS in ACC contests.

Wake Forest (12-4, 6-7 ATS) has issues of their own, mostly to do with shooting the rock. The Demon Deacons shot 45.3 percent from the field, however that number has been plunging, with three of last five outings below 40 percent. Wake Forest lacks consistent shooting beyond 18 feet and does much better when playing 94 feet. Off their 70-50 drubbing by Duke, Wake is 15-29 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games.

DiamondSportsbook.com has North Carolina as -6.5 favorite with total of 157.5. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Demon Deacons are 18-34 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight points a contest after 15 or more games on the season.

Look for the NBA guys to really like Al-Farouq Aminu, a 6-foot-9 forward for Wake Forest, if he keeps working on his shooting.

Utah at San Antonio 9 Eastern

One thing hasn’t changed since Vitale used to do radio playoff games in the NBA after his college basketball duties were completed, the San Antonio Spurs are still a very good home team and Utah doesn’t do much in a visitor’s uniform.

The Spurs (25-15, 21-18-1 ATS) are 17-6 (13-9-1 ATS) at the AT&T Center, winning by 9.6 points per game. San Antonio doesn’t have the look of a team ready to compete for an NBA title, especially this month, with a 6-5 SU and ATS mark. Granted the playoffs are still a half a season away, but coach Gregg Popovich is still looking for answers now and down the road, even utilizing little used center Ian Mahinmi. The Spurs do have rebounding deficiencies and a contributor with size could help.

Utah (23-18, 23-16-2 ATS) is 7-12 away from Salt Lake City, though is a competent 9-9-1 ATS. The Jazz have frequently been off key this season, though recent games have shown improvement, winning four of five and they are 5-0-2 ATS in last seven tries.

Utah has same identical record to Oklahoma City, tied for the last playoff position in the West. The team believes they have turned a corner and will start playing better basketball. “We've lost some games we should have won," Carlos Boozer said. "That being said, we're still right in the thick of things. If we can put together a nice little win streak, we can make up some ground." The Jazz are off 119-112 loss to Denver as seven-point underdogs and are 10-3 ATS after a defeat.

The series is dominated by the home team, which is why the Spurs are a 6.5-point favorite. The white clad team is 20-6 ATS and San Antonio is 16-5 ATS hosting the Jazz. These two teams have tended to play high scoring contests, thus keep an eye on the total of 194, since the total is 8-1 OVER in Southwest Texas.

College Basketball Betting Weekend

The college basketball slate is full of games for Saturday and Sunday, with a myriad of betting choices. Many sports bettors love the action and the ability to view what they’ve bet on and we have keyed on the most important games of the weekend in detail. Check out the most pertinent of information before making your selections this weekend. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 16

Dayton at Xavier (-5.5,135) 11:00E ESPN2

The weight of expectations starts to take hold as Dayton (13-3, 7-6 ATS) is the favorite to end Xavier’s run as Atlantic-10 champions. The Flyers, under coach Brian Gregory, are built with defense and rebounding as the cornerstones and this season they have a wider array of players that can put the ball in the basket. Forward Chris Wright has led the way for Dayton as he tops the team in both scoring and rebounding, while sophomore guard Chris Johnson is second in points scored, from a fairly balanced attack. The Flyers have won last two games, but failed to cover each and are 4-1 and 2-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread this season.

Xavier (11-5, 10-5 ATS) might not be a powerful as recent years; however they are still extremely dangerous. New coach Chris Mack has been tinkering with the lineups and inserted sophomore center Kenny Frease at the end of last month. Frease has added size, scored a few points and mostly importantly improved the rebounding, giving Musketeers fans hope they might be stronger A-10 contender than presumed. Xavier does need greater contributions from Jordan Crawford, the team’s only true swingman. His scoring has been uneven most of the year for Musketeers team that is 22-12 ATS at home the last few seasons.

In the last dozen years, Xavier is 12-0 SU hosting Dayton with 8-4 ATS record.

Syracuse at West Virginia (-4.5,144) 12:00E ESPN

It’s the middle of three road games for the Orangemen, heading to Morgantown. As good as Syracuse (16-1, 10-3 ATS) has been, they’ve only faced one real physical team all season which was Pittsburgh and they lost. West Virginia (13-2, 6-8 ATS) will be the second such foe on the schedule with those qualifications and more talent. This becomes a critical game for Syracuse, since if they don’t compete in standing up with more physical style the Big East plays, every team the rest of the year will look to push and shove the Orange around. Syracuse has won and covered three in a row and is 15-5 ATS following a SU win.

Forward Devin Ebanks is known as a scorer, but has shown a maturity to his game, sacrificing shots, by passing the ball to teammates that have more wide open shots and rebounding the ball. In other words, the kind of unselfish play coach Bob Huggins wants. Da’Sean Butler is another playing a high level, being mentioned already for various Big East honors. West Virginia will certainly test Syracuse’s manhood and the loud Mountaineer fans will try to make an impact. This is astonishing; coach Huggins teams are just 8-20 ATS at home vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points.

The ‘Cuse is 14-3 and 11-6 ATS in last 17 outings vs. the ‘Teers.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (-7,155) 2:00E ESPN

The Yellow Jackets (12-4. 7-4 ATS) have made great strides of improvement this season, thanks to coach Paul Hewitt’s recruiting efforts, yet the foundation of this club is 6-9 forward Gani Lawal. The junior received an appraisal last spring that he was not a first round draft choice in the eyes of NBA personnel and took the constructive criticism to heart. He’s emerged as a team leader, showing the first year players what it takes to succeed at this level and Lawal will have to have a big game against North Carolina’s tall timber in the frontcourt. The Yellow Jackets are only 46-70 ATS in road games vs. shooting teams making 45 percent or more of their attempts.

Watching North Carolina (12-5. 6-9 ATS) play this season, is much like a buffet restaurant. The vast amount of food looks delicious, you load up the plate, but half way thru you realize the food doesn’t have a lot of taste and in the end; you are left content but not satisfied. That is what Tar Heel basketball has been to this point, often good, sometimes remarkable, but over 40 minutes, too many dead spots to make it truly satisfying. Turnovers are what continue to plague North Carolina and it’s just not the guards, all players have been guilty. Unless they clean this area up, they will go on as poor ACC wager with 6-14 ATS record.

Since ’97, the Tar Heels are 11-0 and 6-5 ATS against Georgia Tech.

California at Washington (-1.5,159) 2:30E FSN

The Cal Bears (11-5, 8-7 ATS) have been among the more disappointing teams in the country this season. They along with Washington figured to be the best of a mediocre Pac-10 lot. Unfortunately, like many teams that are perimeter oriented, sometimes the shots don’t fall and opposing teams are better prepared this year for California’s long range attack. Coach Mike Montgomery is hoping for the continued development of centers Markhuri Sanders-Frison and Max Zhang to create more options for team. The Bears won at Pullman 93-88 Thursday and are 2-7 ATS after scoring 90 or more points.

Washington (11-5, 4-12 ATS) too has disappointed, in spite of a strong returning crew and nice blend of reserves and incoming freshmen. The Huskies weaknesses have been the defense does not man up well and is easier to break down in longer possessions or if they don’t create steals. When forced into a half-court game, the outside shooting has not been reliable and opponents keep the lane locked tight, preventing points in the paint. Above all, Washington has shown a decided lack of toughness. They stifled Stanford 94-61 as nine-point home favorites in last outing and need to prove they can play well again, being 2-7 ATS this season after a victory.

California is 4-1 SU and ATS vs. Washington, including two wins and covers at Bank of America Arena.

Purdue at Northwestern (+6.5,132) 5:30E BTN

Basketball prognosticators knew Purdue (14-2, 8-8 ATS) was going to be a very good team coming into the season. The Boilermakers had experience, continuity of playing together for a couple of years and a strong work ethic. What has transformed Purdue into a national power is the elementary aspects of basketball. They force almost eight more turnovers than they commit, they are much better rebounding team than a season ago and they make roughly 75 percent of free throw attempts to ice away games. They have hit a bump the last couple of contests, not playing 40 minutes of basketball in either game. Purdue will have to find themselves quickly since they are 3-8 ATS on the road.

Northwestern’s (12-4, 8-4 ATS) confounding start landed them in the Top 25 briefly; however conference play has brought about new challenges. The Wildcats despite severe injuries had thrived because of the play of mighty mite, 5’8 Michael “Juice” Thompson. He ignited the offense, scoring and setting up teammates. Big Ten opponents had taken notice and have squeezed “Juice” not allowing him to roam as freely. Conference clubs have also been prepared for the Wildcats various zone defenses. Northwestern lost to Wisconsin at home in last encounter and is 5-9 ATS after a defeat.

The Cats have played well against Purdue with 10-4 ATS record.

Sunday, Jan. 17

Connecticut at Michigan ( ) 1:30E CBS

The Huskies (11-5, 5-8-1 ATS) knew coming into the season, despite plenty of size, they were not going to have the same scoring power with the departure of Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Their absence has expanded the roles of Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards and both have taken the challenge and become more complete players. What coach Jim Calhoun is seeking is Ater Majok and Charles Okwandu to be more valuable contributors, instead of players just using up minutes. With its size, UConn is 11-3 ATS when they grab 10 or more rebounds than their opponents.

Michigan (9-7, 5-7 ATS) knows what to expect every night from Manny Harris, being one of the best players in the Big Ten. And coach John Beilein knows what to look for from DeShawn Sims, his most versatile performer, who creates matchup issues for opponents. What has been lacking most of the season is that dependable third option. Laval Lucas-Perry, Stu Douglass or Zack Novak have all had their moments, nevertheless, sometimes they have failed all together also. With Connecticut’s decided size edge in this contest, the Wolverines cannot afford to make less than 30 percent of three point attempts, since they are 3-16 ATS when they do.

Wake Forest at Duke ( ) 8:00E FSN

The Demon Deacons (12-3, 6-6 ATS)have one major weakness – outside shooting. Against teams they can overwhelm with their physical skills, the issue still persists, however is less noticeable. Playing against better quality competition, particularly those in the ACC that know their conundrum, well that is how the losses start accumulating, especially on the road. Freshman forward Ari Stewart can score from the outside, yet he is still learning about shot selection. Wake Forest can play different styles and is 13-4 ATS against offensive teams like the Blue Devils scoring 77 or more points a contest.

Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has shown to likely be the best team in the ACC, but they are for from infallible. Kyle Singler had a few off games of late and Nolan Smith will disappear at various points in games. As opposed to the last few seasons, the Blue Devils have room for improvement. Guard Jon Scheyer has been a rock at the point and the Plumlee brothers, Miles and Mason, are improving rapidly providing more help up front. Duke 34-18 ATS on home court when they attempt 63 to 69 shots and 8-4 ATS off a SU win this season.

Duke is 20-5 and 18-7 ATS vs. Wake Forest, including 11-0 SU and ATS since 1997.

Big East and ACC in spotlight

Four ranked teams from two of the premier conferences will showcase their talents this Wednesday. In the Big East, No. 16 Pittsburgh hits the road to No. 15 Connecticut, with the Panthers looking to stay unbeaten in conference play. Later, 12th ranked North Carolina visits 24th ranked Clemson, which will be a test of wills for each team trying to steady recent developments they have felt. For sports bettors, a very busy Hump Day.

Panthers on the prowl

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Pittsburgh (13-2, 6-5-2 ATS) lost too much talent from a season ago and had too many gaping holes to be considered nothing more than a team that would finish fifth to eighth in the Big East. Instead, Jamie Dixon of Pitt is the mid-season favorite for national coach of the year with what he’s done in the Steel City. The emergence of Ashton Gibbs and the return of Gilbert Brown and Jermaine Dixon have seen the Panthers take off and with another conference upset, would stay tied with Villanova for the top spot. Pitt has always been able to play with physical teams and is 22-7 ATS versus clubs who average 40 or more rebounds a game.

Connecticut (11-4, 5-7-1 ATS) needs a positive right away after giving away a 19-point lead at Georgetown and falling 72-69.” It’s the most heartbreaking loss this year. It’s not even close,” coach Jim Calhoun said. “We took our 20 minutes of work, threw it away and said, ‘OK, now let’s play an even game.’”

Turnovers were the bugaboo for the Huskies, committing 15 in all. Coach Calhoun will try to get his guards to value the possession of the ball more, since UConn is 9-0 (4-4 ATS) when they commit 13 or less turnovers.

Connecticut is a six-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com and is 17-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. The Huskies are among the best defensive teams in the country holding teams to 37.2 percent shooting and will have to contain Pittsburgh. The Panthers magic formula for winning is shooting over 40 percent, as they are 12-0 and 5-4-2 ATS.

This Big East battle starts at 7 Eastern on ESPN2 with Connecticut 6-2 and 4-4 ATS in last eight meetings at home.

ACC foes on the mend

North Carolina (12-4, 6-8 ATS) was stunned at College of Charleston 82-79 and came back and beat Virginia Tech by 14 in next outing. Clemson was duped at Duke, losing by 21 points and rebounded with 72-56 win over Boston College as nine-point favorites. Each ACC will look to continue winning ways this evening.

One of Roy Williams coaching axioms is he doesn’t play favorites. If one of his players is playing great and the other average, the one giving the better effort will start and use up the majority of minutes, that’s his belief. Normally by now, Williams is into comfortable starting five and other roles have been defined, but not this year, as many players have taken two steps forward and one back. The Tar Heels are 40-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

You can’t help but be impressed with the job Oliver Purnell has done at Clemson (13-5, 8-5 ATS). In the past, losing as many quality players as last year would have spelled rebuilding on the South Carolina campus, but not these days. Purnell has imported a continual flow of players like freshman Noel Johnson and Devin Booker, meshing with established players like Trevor Booker and Demontez Stitt. Purnell realizing he has 10 players not that different ability-wise, opened up competition for starting spots, to keep guys hungry. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS at home against teams making 45 percent of their shots.

Clemson will seek to improve upon 4-6 and 5-5 ATS mark at Littlejohn Coliseum vs. the Heels and is a four-point favorite to do so. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS at home versus good three-point shooting teams making 37 percent or more of their attempts over the last three seasons.
This is the 9:00 Eastern clash on ESPN and North Carolina is 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference win since last season.

Bowl season ready to roll

All the gifts have been opened and glad tidings shared. The gift cards (the new fruit cake) are stacked to never fit in the wallet and the return receipts are in a nice tidy bundle. For the sports bettor the first six bowl games were like the appetizer trey passed around the last 36 hours, good choices, but it is time to eat. Starting Saturday and for the next eight days, 24 bowl games will be televised to whet the insatiable appetite of even the most piggish of wagering junkie. Without further ado, let get this party started.

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs. Ohio U
Ford Field – Detroit
1:00E ESPN

Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition, as Ohio U. and Marshall meet. The Bobcats (9-4 SU & ATS) are seeking their first 10-win season in 31 years and return to scene where they lost MAC championship to Central Michigan. Marshall (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) is in first bowl since 2004, which wasn’t enough to prevent from coach Mark Snyder being forced to resign. Interim coach Rick Minter takes over as the Thundering Herd look to have first winning campaign in six years.

Marshall was a regular participant in this bowl at the turn of the century making four straight trips. The Thundering Herd is 5-2 SU and ATS as a bowler, however just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS vs. those also playing in bowls. Ohio U. has never won a bowl in three previous tries, falling in the GMAC Bowl in 2007 and losing twice in the 1960’s. The Bobcats split games vs. other bowl teams, with sharp 5-1 ATS mark. The MAC is 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven contests.

Why watch and wager –Ohio is favored by three-points at Bookmaker.com, won three of last four, covered each time and will have regular coach Frank Solich as their leader. Marshall finished 1-3 SU and ATS and will have coach looking for another job at the completion of this bowl game. If Bobcats quarterback Theo Scott has more touchdowns than picks, Ohio is 6-0 SU. The players from Athens are 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive covers this season. Marshall has offensive limitations and feeds running back Darius Marshall (ironic) a load of times, hoping he gets hot vs. ordinary Ohio run D. The Thundering Herd is anything but with 8-22 ATS record having lost two out of last three contests. Motivation is on the side of Ohio, seeking first-ever bowl victory and the most coveted trophy in college football, The Deep Dish Large Pizza (crazy bread included). For geography buffs, these schools are a mere 90 miles apart.

3DW Line – Pick

Meineke Car Care Bowl
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Bank of American Stadium – Charlotte
4:30E ESPN

Charlotte hosts its eighth annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) plays in its home state, taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in this bowl and they come in 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-4-1 ATS) looks to pick up the pieces of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from ending Cincinnati’s Cinderella season and making a trip to the Sugar Bowl. Coach Dave Wannstedt still has something to sell his team as they could be the first 10-win Pittsburgh squad since Dan Marino wore the blue and gold 28 years ago.

Both teams suffered disappointing season ending losses and North Carolina is 12-14 all-time in bowl matchups, with winning spread record of 10-6-2 ATS. The Tar Heels are 5-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs and were 5-3 and .500 ATS against other bowl squads. Pittsburgh has failed to win or cover last three bowl assignments and is 10-15 and 7-10 ATS in their history. The Panthers are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS vs. those also playing after the regular season. The Big East is 2-4 ATS in this contest.

Why watch and wager – Difficult bowl game to gauge range of emotions. Pittsburgh could be more chagrined than a Republican about the health care bill and fail to take winnable contest at home against Bearcats. North Carolina has shown more range of emotions than Robert Downey Jr. in Sherlock Holmes. The Tar Heels started 3-0, lost three of four, won and covered four in a row and filled a diaper at N.C. State. If emotions plays no part, than turnovers have to for North Carolina to win, since their offense isn’t good enough to emerge victorious on its own. The Heels are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. For Pittsburgh, they traded Bourbon Street beads for car parts. The Panthers have to attack with explosive pass catches TE Dorin Dickerson and Jonathan Baldwin early, which loosens up above average UNC defensive line for diminutive Dion Lewis to scoot thru. Pitt is three-point favorite with total of 44.5, yet is 3-7 ATS when picked by three or fewer points.

3DW Line – Pittsburgh by 3

Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
AT&T Park – San Francisco
8:00E ESPN

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC (8-4, 3-9 ATS), as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar territory for USC, but Trojans defense allowed more than 35 points three times after having done so twice prior to this season since Pete Carroll was coach. Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) was inconsistent in their first season under coach Frank Spaziani, but reached a bowl for the 11th straight year despite being picked to finish last in the ACC's Atlantic Division in the league's preseason poll.

This is USC’s first non-BCS bowl game since 2001 and they have spectacular 31-16 all-time bowl mark with 13-12 ATS record. Under coach Carroll, they are 6-2 SU and ATS. One of the few schools that could match the Trojans postseason prowess is Boston College, who saw their eight-game bowl streak snapped last year in the Music City matchup. The Eagles are 13-7 and 10-7 ATS, with 5-3 ATS mark as underdogs. Underdogs are rock solid 5-1 ATS in San Fran and with the total at 44, all three tilts that had totals of 46 or less show underdogs 3-0 SU & ATS.

Why watch and wager – People can’t turn away from car wrecks and mishaps and USC qualifies as both. After seven straight Pac-10 titles and matching number of BCS bids, coach Carroll’s fun-loving crew plays in a converted baseball stadium. No, the Trojans aren’t using Joe McKnight’s Range Rover connection to arrive at AT&T Park and freshman Matt Barkley won’t have important offensive weapons to use once again. USC is 19-6 ATS with two weeks or more to prepare. Boston College also starts a freshman signal caller, he just happens to be 25-year old Dave Shinskie. The Eagles offensive line has to open holes for RB Montel Harris, which sets up WR Rich Gunnell for play-action passes. B.C.’s goal is slow the game down and remind older USC players that this is the Emerald Bowl, not a more prestigious contest. The Eagles are catching seven-points with total at 45 and they are 13-3 as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs.

3DW Line – USC by 5

ACC/Big Ten Tuesday Preview

This 11- game event should be renamed – The Big Ten’s Challenge to defeat the ACC. If the Big Ten Conference had realized they would be zero and 10 in this matchup, they probably would have opted out like some of the football teams do and maybe gone after the Big Sky, however at least soon to be college players learn to see how to take defeat gracefully watching them play. Four games are on tap for Tuesday and two contests involve ranked teams from the Top 25. Here is Tuesday night’s preview. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Michigan State at North Carolina (-2) 9:00E ESPN

It’s a rematch of last season’s national championship game with the Spartans and Tar Heels. North Carolina had one good and one bad game in preseason NIT, but has talent. The year after the Heels won their last championship, they essentially started over with a freshmen class that that ended up winning last year’s title. This club has far more experience with the likes of Deon Thompson, Marcus Ginyard and Deonte Thompson. Sophomores Larry Drew II and Tyler Zeller just need playing time and Drew in particular has to play better and protect the ball, committing too many turnovers. North Carolina has 29-12 ATS record in non-conference tilts and has covered last six against the Big Ten.

Kalin Lucas proved his worth last year and is the Michigan State team leader. With Raymar Morgan being less than 100 percent for the second year in a row, Durrell Summers is comfortably fitting into the role of second choice in the Michigan State pecking order. Summers expanded game makes him a more versatile asset. The Spartans have already been tested; having Gonzaga outplay them for 30 minutes before prevailing 75-71 and being upset by Florida 77-74 as 3.5-point favorites, thanks to 2-10 from behind the arc. Michigan State is 19-9 ATS away from East Lansing in December games.

Michigan State is the only Big Ten team to have winning record (5-4) in Challenge and the Tar Heels are 5-5.

Wake Forest at Purdue (-10.5) 7:00ET ESPN

The Demon Deacons are minus their two top scorers from a year ago yet might end up being a better team, as players that played secondary roles will be featured more. That includes forward Al-Farouq Aminu and center Chas McFarland. It is up to Ish Smith to be facilitator at the point guard and coach Dino Gaudio is very pleased to pick up JC transfer Konner Tucker and freshman Ari Stewart, both excellent shooters, which has been a sore spot with the team the last few years. This problem resurfaced against William & Mary in 78-68 loss, shooting 35.1 percent from the field and making just half their free throw attempts. Wake Forest is 26-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and near perfect 8-1 vs Big Ten in this competition.

Purdue hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start they would like; no they are playing good basketball, but have been hampered by two key injuries. Freshman big man Sandi Marcius was lost for up to six weeks to a broken foot early in preseason practice and point guard Lewis Jackson with injured foot. That means increased minutes for Keaton Grant, which might make the Boilermakers a little less explosive, but better defensively. E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson are who drives the Purdue bus and this trio is keeping them in the fast lane, winning Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands with a thrilling one-point win over Tennessee.

The Boilers are 3-11 ATS in December games over the last three seasons and 2-6 SU in this event.

Maryland at Indiana (+4.5) 7:30E ESPN2

The Terrapins return to action after a disappointing 1-2 record in Maui, losing rather easily to Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both who might be bigger factors in their respective leagues than first thought. Maryland didn’t receive the backcourt play they expected and were soundly beaten on the glass, which was big factor. Maryland is 6-2 ATS off a loss and 4-1-1 ATS vs. the Big Ten.

The rebuilding process continues in Indiana and junior transfer Jeremiah Rivers is making his youthful companions better, dealing the ball with aplomb. Christian Watford and Maurice Creek have been among the benefactors and Verdell Jones III has also been on the receiving end of assists. The Hoosiers are 1-6-1 ATS after covering the spread.

Virginia Tech at Iowa (+3) 9:30E ESPN2

The Hokies are giving headaches to backers in spite of 4-1 start. Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS, failing to put the ball in the basket with any level of consistency. Their early season slate does not in any way represent what they will face in the ACC, yet only once have thet shot over 45 percent. They are 1-7 ATS off a SU victory and 0-5 vs. the Big Ten.

Iowa is off to one of their worst start in decades, with defections, too many young players and a general lack of talent to play at a high level. At least they will have the crowd on their side, though nobody will magically appear to be a post player. Coach Todd Lickliter is already getting heat and they are forced to rely too heavily on the three-ball, with no threat down low. Teams are pressuring the perimeter, not respecting the Hawkeyes ability to tabulate points in the paint. Iowa is 17-37 ATS in most recent non-conference games.

Sports Bettor makes Virginia Tech call

The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to make mucho dinero. (Sorry for Bob Griese reference) If you are a serious sports bettor like me, you know the Hokies are more golden than shakin’ down friends and family for old gold jewelry to profit from. (Frank) Beamer’s boys are 14-3 against the evil empire the last 11 years.

It’s understandable a few of you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Bookmaker.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, not to worry friends, the ol Red-man will not steer you wrong.

How can I be so sure? Comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier.

North Carolina players still have to be lower than my latest 401K update, blowing 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less. I have to question how much they are going to want to play before a geeked Virginia Tech crowd, especially if the offense plays to norm, meaning 115th in FBS land. I like fishing as much as the next guy, but I’m not taking the bait UNC is for real, besides they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.

Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by Yellow Jackets. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster probably led the Hokies in tackles in practice since their last contest, showing his defensive guys it’s OK to tackle somebody REALLY HARD in practice and in games. Anything less than max effort from the defense would be a bigger shock than Andre Agassi's revelation. The Beamer’s are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if opponent has positive record.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn’t throw the ball like Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is improving passer and has been sharp after so-so passing games. What I like about Beamer, he’ll having his team find out right away what kind mood and effort North Carolina is likely to provide, running the ball right at them, throwing deep balls and trying to scare the devil out of Heels chucker T.J. Yates, with continual blitzes. Reports out of Chapel Hill have Yates being chased out of Franklin Street establishments for making holes in the wall on errant dart throws, despite no oncoming pass rushers.

With North Carolina one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.

Red Wydley wrote this ACC Thursday matchup.

Bettors might TiVo this ACC contest

The two biggest disappoints in the ACC this season have been Florida State (2-4, 1-5 ATS) and North Carolina (4-2, 2-3 ATS). Both team were improved last season with many positive signs and were expected to compete for the right to play in ACC championship game in 2009. Instead, ESPN has one of its worst dud games on a Thursday night it has had in years. Each of the Atlantic Coast Conference teams currently resides in the basement of their respective teams, talk about a need for flex scheduling!

Florida State’s bizarre season continues to become stranger as it goes along. The season started with the cloud over coach Bobby Bowden, being stripped of wins in his pursuit of Joe Paterno as the winningest coach in D-1 or FBS history. The exciting 38-34 loss to Miami in the opener was harbinger of defensive issues not wholly recognizable at the time.

A fourth quarter come from behind 19-9 win against FCS Jacksonville State was masked with impressive 54-28 win over then previously unbeaten BYU. That is where the rubber met the road. The Seminoles have not won since, losing three times and the defense has been scorched for 30.5 points per game in their four trips to the gridiron.

Several people are calling for Bobby Bowden to step down while others are saying leave him alone and let him decide when the time is right. What is another peculiar aspect in Florida State’s season are Bowden’s comments leading up this contest.

“I’m disappointed with the losses and yet we’ve done some good things. We’ve done something this year that we haven’t done before,” Bowden said. “Our offense against BYU took the ball and scored the first seven times they got the ball. Then against Georgia Tech, we took the ball and scored the first five times we got the ball.

“But defensively, we’ve had a hard time stopping the big play. We’ll go out there and stop a team, and stop a team, and stop a team and then whoop. So if they ever get that squared away we’ll be a pretty good ballclub.

“Another thing is, nobody’s crushed us. We haven’t been blown out. We’ve been right down to the wire with everybody, which maybe with one play less for them or one play more for us, we could be up at the top.”

Coach Bowden putting positive spin on losing season, what is next Glenn Beck and Keith Olberman become dining partners? At least the Noles are 27-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses against the spread.

North Carolina has been done in by anemic offense. The Tar Heels rank No. 101 in rushing, No. 103 in passing, which ends up totaling 282.2 yards per game, 117th in total offense. Take away the wins against FCS Georgia Southern and The Citadel and North Carolina is the worst offensive team in the country. Subtract those two games and the Tar Heels are averaging 59.7 yards per game on the ground.

With no running game and QB T.J. Yates being rushed continually when dropping back to pass, and never in sync with receivers, the offense has scored 12 or fewer points three times on the year. UNC also averages almost three turnovers a game and is 12-26 ATS at home after playing a non-conference tilt.

Despite no offensive support, the Tar Heels stop troops rank third in the country in total defense at 237.7 yards per game. The numbers are somewhat misleading based on competition; however they would still be in the Top 20 defensively if just the four FBS teams were counted.

Bookmaker.com has North Carolina as 2.5-point favorites with total of 48 in the first ever Thursday-night televised home game for the Tar Heels in school history. The Heels are 6-2 with 3-5 ATS in last eight weekday games. They are 1-14-1 against Florida State, with 8-8 ATS mark and 7-0 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.

If the Seminoles defense can’t get healthy against this offense, there is no hope for the season. Florida State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog since 2005 (includes bowls), yet 4-13 ATS in road games against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers a game.

The Worldwide Leader has this ACC clash at 7:45 Eastern and will undoubtedly make reference to Florida State having never lost four in a row with Bobby Bowden patrolling the sidelines. Including Labor Day loss, the Noles are 0-5 ATS on weekdays.

Only off day of football this week

After a 1-1 performance, we move ahead to kind of a peculiar day. The Top Trend was rained out yesterday, so bring it back again. No great MLB systems, thus decided to bring in something completely fresh, a first half wager for Saturday college football (Clip and save). Sal will hopefully have another magical free play. Good Luck

What I learned today – The Panthers and Titans are each 0-3 this season after finishing the 2008 season with 12 and 13 wins, respectively. The last team to start 0-3 coming off a 12-win season before this year was Dick Vermeil's 2004 Chiefs. Thanks Elias

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Football System-1) PLAY AGAINST a road team like Virginia on the first half line who are terrible rushing team, averaging three or less yards per carry, against a team with a good rushing defense like North Carolina (3 to 3.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Dating back to 1992, this system is 23-3, 88.5 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Nick Blackburn and the Minnesota Twins are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Sal backs the Braves to continue latest hot streak.

Guaranteed CFB Play for Wednesday

The Platinum Sheet is packed with useful tools.

Betting ACC football looks like coin flip

Let’s start with the facts, the ACC generously speaking, is lousy. Not in all sports, as North Carolina has done a great job holding up the league’s reputation in college basketball and the conference sent two teams to the College World Series in baseball this past summer. No, were just talking football.

In 2004, the Atlantic Coast Conference university presidents saw the money the SEC and the Big 12 were making holding a conference championship game in football and the interest and buzz it created nationally. Not afraid to throw around a little cash, along with promises, the ACC raided the Big East and took their three strongest football programs (all for the sake of higher learning of course) and rebuilt a the league into a dozen teams. Miami and Virginia Tech joined in 2004 and Boston College followed a year later. A new “super” conference was born, right?

Well not exactly. Along the way a few stumbling blocks occurred. While the Big East additions were supposed to enhance competition, they weren’t supposed to dominate. Of the four ACC title games played so far, five representatives have been from the Big East, lead by Virginia Tech three times. In fairness, things do move a little slower in the South. When Florida State joined the ACC, they won their first 29 conference contests and 47 of 48.

Because of the success the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed, speculation has been written and discussed about adding them to the BCS (oh that will happen) or possibly dropping a weaker league and adding the MWC to the mix. (Not likely)

If for example that were to occur how does the ACC standup?

Since reshuffling the deck in 2004-05, the ACC is 134-96, 58.2 percent straight up against D-1 or FBS teams in non-conference games. That’s just below average compared to the other five BCS conferences and the Mountain West. For the sports bettor, the ACC isn’t an acceptable wager with a record of 109-119-2 against the spread in those encounters. That’s 52.2 percent on the losing side of wagers, not including adding the vig.

The news is even worse when you consider over the last three years and the beginning of this season these 12 teams win only 44 percent of the time against the aforementioned other conferences.

What is the problem with the ACC, it’s actually two-fold. First, the school presidents fully expected adding three new teams and a little magic dust and suddenly it’s the SEC. The ACC is a basketball conference. Most schools are willing to pay decent money to coach players in short pants, but haven’t shown that same willingness on the gridiron.

This leads to the quality of coaches in charge of these programs. Bobby Bowden is not the same as he was 10 to 20 years ago. Frank Beamer is still elite head coach, however after, not much Hall of Fame material. Tom O’Brien, Jim Grobe, Butch Davis and Paul Johnson all fit in the “good” category with Johnson the most likely to reach greater heights. Veteran coaches like Al Groh and David Cutcliffe will get the most out of what they can recruit by academic standards at Virginia and Duke and Ralph Freidgen wins enough to keep the alumni off his back. At this point Randy Shannon, Frank Spaziani and Dabo Swinney all have incomplete grades and none were costly hires.

With the ACC about to really delve into league play what should the sports bettor expect in balanced league lacking true star power?

The game of football has evolved to where so much importance is placed on the quarterback. The two best veteran quarterbacks are Riley Skinner at Wake Forest and Thaddeus Lewis at Duke, however neither will be making a living at that position once their eligibility is completed. The league’s future might be in its youthful signal callers, with the likes of Jacory Harris at Miami, Russell Wilson at N.C. State and Christian Ponder at Florida State. Each has the skill to be complete player and should only get better with proper work ethic and talent around them. Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt are both exciting players who are mostly one-dimensional players. The truth is the league reflects the quarterback play at this time, rather generic and predicated on youth without the infrastructure to protect on off days.

In breaking down conference play over the last five seasons it’s about as expected. Virginia Tech is 34-9 and 29-14 ATS when ACC title games are counted. Florida State is 24-17 and 17-24 ATS, being overvalued in many cases and Georgia Tech is 25-17, but only 20-22 ATS with no distinguishing attributes.

The Wolfpack at N.C. State is 17-23 and .500 against the spread. We’ll have to watch if they can continue 4-0 ATS home underdog mark from last season. Boston College is 21-14 and 17-18 ATS and actually has a better SU record in there four years in the ACC compared to the previous last four years in the supposed weaker Big East.

The next three teams are long time members stuck in neutral. North Carolina is 18-22 and 20-20 ATS and Maryland is very similar at 18-22 SU & ATS. Clemson is 23-18 and 19-22 ATS and is a much better home dog than home favorite in ACC action.

Wake Forest is 20-21 SU & ATS and is dastardly 3-8 ATS as away favorite the last decade. Miami is 22-20 and 18-24 ATS in league play, sporting 4-11 ATS record in home games. Virginia is positive 21-19 and 22-18 ATS, being a solid wager at home and wobbly road team. The Dukies are ghastly 2-38 (its true), however is frequently overlooked as doormat of the ACC and is 19-21 against the oddsmakers.

It would be a pleasure to suggest a certain style of wagering in the ACC, like playing all underdogs, however the facts don’t support it. Instead, like the many roads that go thru the Carolina’s, follow the yellow signs with the wiggly picture. SLOW – Proceed with Caution.

Betting Options for NBA Draft

It’s nothing short of amazing how drafts in various sports have become a cottage industry onto themselves. The next one of importance is in the NBA. The fine folks of ESPN will have enough visible personnel during its broadcast of who is going where in professional basketball, they could invade Malta. They will tell the story of what happens, while you can turn into recreational sports bettor and play along making prop bets on the various happenings. Here’s hoping Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have another on-screen argument and what to look for from the draft.

Most NBA experts that follow the draft believe this could be one of the craziest and most entertaining nights of professional basketball, without one center jump. Speaking to an avid NBA bettor and one who follows the game 24/7, he points to organizational philosophies making the difference. “One player can turn a NBA franchise around. The Bulls took Derrick Rose, in the playoffs with brighter future. It comes down to front office types making shrewd decisions. Take the right player, fortunes will rise; take the wrong player, Hello lottery again.”

One wretched franchise that can change what has become a way of life is the Los Angeles Clippers. They have the first pick and the world expects them to take Blake Griffin. He has the look and determination of a player who COULD (not will) lead the Clips out of the NBA abyss. The Clippers might be wise to sign his brother Taylor as free agent and keep him on the team as 12th man and have Blake be happier to start his NBA career.

From here, the NBA water gets a littler murky, though certain things should happen. (Picks based on current slots as of writing)

Player to get Drafted First from DiamondSportsbook.com

Hasheem Thabeet -350
James Harden +225

This is not as easy as it looks since Memphis would prefer to move out of No. 2 slot. Thabeet is the obvious choice to build with A.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay, however questions surround how good a defender and rebounder he will be a next level. Harden is actually a more proven commodity, but might be too similar to Mayo and appears to have less upside than Thabeet. The Grizzlies want to believe they are getting the real deal and not taking the next Andrew Bogut. Play Thabeet.

Stephen Curry -200
Johnny Flynn +155

Curry is the correct choice; nevertheless, as mentioned, different front offices are not always in sync. Sacramento has the fourth pick and wants a point guard. Depending on the day, time or if the humidity is a little higher in Sac-Town, the Kings have professed to like Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Flynn and Brandon Jennings name has started popping up. In the end, Sacramento takes Evans based on last impression and Curry goes to Minnesota, ahead of Flynn.

Tyler Hansbrough -300
Chase Budinger +200

Going to play the dog here with Budinger and here’s why. When it comes down to it, Hansbrough’s lack of athletic ability will scare teams off, in spite of toughness which many teams could use. (I’m hoping Charlotte doesn’t screw this up) The absolute perfect place for Hansbrough to flourish to start professional career is Utah, which has 20th pick. Though Budinger isn’t all that well liked with many GM’s believing he is nearly finished product, the Philadelphia 76ers need players that can shoot, which is the former volleyball player’s greatest strength. Granted, Philly needs a point guard for aging before your eyes Andre Miller at No. 17, nonetheless having player off the bench to score immediately is more pressing need.

Wayne Ellington -140
DaJaun Summers Even

This is a hard play to make, since it becomes about need. A team like Atlanta could use another outside shooter, which Ellington is. Though there are reservations about his ability to put the ball on the deck and create, as a spot-up shooter, as good as you will find in the draft. Summers is a fit for a team like Memphis looking for size and is interchangeable at three or four spot. A smallish play on Ellington because he can make shots and Summers has been more unreliable.

Brandon Jennings -110
Jrue Holiday -130

Any NBA General Manager only has to think back to Sebastian Telfair, when considering Brandon Jennings. If I lose this wager, will call up offending team and ask them to bet me double or nothing which player has better NBA career.

Darren Collison (UCLA) - When Will He be Drafted (1st or 2nd Round)

First –Even
Second -140

Collison goes in the first round, with Oklahoma City and Portland as possible destinations. I would shocked if the Lakers took him at #29 since they already have one UCLA point guard with marginal ability in Jordan Farmar.

DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -160
15th or later +120

Though his knees are a concern to potential suitors, Blair’s crew has supplied the right information about his health and his stock has risen as much as anyone’s. Top 14 choices New Jersey and Indiana make the most sense for the big man. Bet the -160.

Gerald Henderson (Duke) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice -170
15th or later +130

Henderson got better each season at Duke, proving he’s willing to do what it takes to be a pro. With too many attitude players with potentially bigger upsides having egos already that of superstar, having the chance to pick more level-headed player has to make lottery teams like Toronto or Charlotte pleased. Take the -170.

Ty Lawson (North Carolina) - Will He be a Lottery Pick (Picked 1st to 14th)

1 -14th choice +120
15th or later -160

Lawson could go to Pacers early, but his lack of size and potential problematic ability to find clear shots have him falling out of the first 14 selections.

DeMar DeRozan (USC) - Over/Under Draft Position

Over 10.5 -Even
Under 10.5 -140

This is the perfect example why GM’s and coaches can’t sleep nights. DeRozan has Top 5 ability, nobody questions that. At USC as a freshman, he showed his brilliance and lack of maturity almost evenly. There are genuine concerns about his true readiness at this level. Toronto at No.9 is the team most in need of his skills, however, DeRozan has made it known he’s not cool about the idea of playing north of the border. Take the Over.

Number of North Carolina players chosen in first round

One - +600
Two - +200
Three – minus 200
Four - +800

The Tar Heels are the national champions and will get the respect they likely deserve and will have three players chosen in the first round, all who have been mentioned already, leaving no need to be redundant as to who they are.