Something old and something new in Midwest Final

Michigan State is back in the Elite Eight, trying to make their sixth Final Four appearance in a dozen years. Tennessee on the other hand is making their debut as one of the eight finalists in contention for the national championship. Each has endured the most unlikely of circumstances to arrive at this point.

The Spartans (27-8, 14-20 ATS) are battered, bruised and one other factor, still playing. Durrell Summers seems to have taken it upon himself to be the leader with leading scorer Kalin Lucas out. Summers had 19 points in the win over Northern Iowa (26 vs. Maryland) and he and his teammates still believe they have ways to go. “It feels great to be back," forward Draymond Green said of being among the last eight teams. "We've still got bigger dreams."

Michigan State has been thru winning streaks, injuries, suspensions and benching, yet continues to press on. "That's kind of enjoyable, to find a way," coach Tom Izzo said. "It's somewhat more rewarding than the last two." Michigan State has covered 21 of their last 29 Sunday games.

Tennessee (28-8, 15-17-1 ATS) head coach Bruce Pearl knows his team and knows his math which led to upset of Ohio State. “I told our team, 'It's our team vs. their six,"' Pearl said. "We were a better 10 than their six." For Vols fans and backers, the Elite Eight is a better number than the Sweet 16.

Wayne Chism and Brian Williams used their size and bulk to dominate Ohio State in the paint, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 41-29 and scoring 50 of their 76 points in the lane area. Pearl has taken a collection of players that could have folded their tent and disappeared when their leading scorer Tyler Smith was suspended for the year and three other players were disciplined for varying lengths of time, instead he sold them on team and different leaders emerged, leading to Tennessee on 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) closing run. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven matchups with teams with winning records.

Tennessee is a two-point favorite at DiamondSportsbook.com, with total of 136.5 and they are 5-1-1 ATS against the Big Ten of late. The Vols will have to continue to play great defense and be prepared for Spartans transition game. Rebounding will be huge factor for Tennessee, as Michigan State is 25-3 SU (11-16 ATS) when they grab more boards than the opponent. Look for Volunteers to again work the ball inside where Izzo’s team doesn’t have a great deal of height.

The Spartans will need a complete team effort once again. Summers and Raymar Morgan need to be the scoring leaders and receive plenty of moxie from Korie Lucious and Green, who comes off the bench. Michigan State is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament tilts and 6-2-1 ATS as a neutral site underdog.

Concerning the total, Michigan State is 7-3-1 UNDER after a cover and Tennessee is 8-2 UNDER since Jan. 31 as a favorite.

Whatever the outcome, the winner will be the lowest seed in the Final Four since 2006 when 11th seeded George Mason waltzed into the surroundings.

Midwest flavor in Midwest Regional

Three of the four teams in St. Louis for the NCAA Tournament are manageable distances, being from the Big Ten or Missouri Valley conferences. Tennessee is the only outsider, however is closer to the city with The Arch by just over 30 miles compared to those from Columbus, OH. By the end of Friday night, at least one team from the heartland will have a chance to make a trip to the Final Four in Indianapolis and quite possibly two.

Unusual Pairing

To say Northern Iowa and Michigan State facing off against one another is peculiar, that would be like President Obama inviting Republicans over to the White House for a barbeque to celebrate the signing of health care bill. Since the NCAA Tournament was expand to field of 64 (65) teams, only once has a five seed squared off against a nine-seed in the Sweet 16 and that was Boston College against Indiana 16 years ago, when a certain “general” was still patrolling the sidelines at IU.

Northern Iowa (30-4, 23-10 ATS) pulled the biggest surprise of the tournament, knocking off top-ranked Kansas in impressive manner. The Panthers didn’t corral the Jayhawks in fluky fashion, after trailing 3-2, UNI was never again on the wrong side of the scoreboard and shot below their season average of 43 percent (40%) in engineering the upset.

Northern Iowa is fearless, with players like Adam Koch and Ali Farokhmanesh willing to take big shots and making them. The Panthers have won six straight and are 10-3 ATS after five or more consecutive wins with some of their strengths largely unnoticed. They hold opponents to 40.6 percent shooting and coach Ben Jacobson has taught them to hand off players on the move, yet seldom are caught in bad matchups. Quietly, UNI goes about their business and has 10 players that are productive in one form or another without a drop-off in output.

Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS) will have to overcome the loss of floor leader Kalin Lucas. Coach Tom Izzo has spent the week preaching to Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green and Durrell Summers about their responsibility to their teammates and about elevating their level of play with their leading scorer out. The Spartans rose to the challenge against Maryland and are not in shock, since Lucas missed five games earlier in the season.

The Spartans are a one-point favorite with total of 122 at DiamondSportsbook.com and are 6-15 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. Northern Iowa has thrived in this situation, sporting an 8-1 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Though the total is up two points from opening figure, the Panthers are 16-4 UNDER when playing only their second game in a week and Michigan State is 6-2-1 UNDER off a cover.

Buckeyes look to avoid being Orange Crush

Last weekend after Kansas and Georgetown were dismissed from the tournament, Ohio State (29-7, 18-16-2 ATS) was given a free pass to the Final Four by many television types. One aspect overlooked was the quality of the Buckeyes next opponent, Tennessee (27-8, 14-17-1 ATS).

The Volunteers turn of the calendar issues have been well documented, however that strife might well have made them a better team, having to lean on each other, rather than particular players. Center Brian Williams has become more of a force, giving Wayne Chism more help on the glass. Guards J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson were presented with more shot opportunities and Bruce Pearl’s club has knocked off highly ranked teams like Kentucky and Kansas, proving they belong in the Sweet 16.

Coach Pearl also has his squad playing defense, holding teams to 39.3 percent and they are 25-14 ATS versus teams making 37 or more percent from beyond the arc. Tennessee is a 4.5-point underdog and is 11-21 ATS after being favored in back-to-back contests, plus is 8-0 UNDER after making 55 percent or better of their shot attempts.

Sixth seeds like the Vols are 2-6 ATS after a double digit triumph in this round of action.

Round 2 Afternoon Wagering Options

The afternoon session of the NCAA Tournament this Saturday has a wide variety of wagering options and games that could turn into real head-scratchers. Lower seeds Murray State, Ohio U., Washington and Old Dominion could make a mess of the most people brackets, if they could pull off yet another upset. Here is a preview of what the afternoon might look like for sports bettors.

Murray State vs. Butler 3:20E

The Racers proved oddsmakers correct in assigning them a low number as underdog against Vanderbilt with their thrilling one point buzz-beater against the Commodores. Few teams in college basketball are more balanced than Murray State (31-4, 16-13-1 ATS), with six players capable of scoring in double figures every game, making defenses having to guard everyone evenly. The Racers have run out to 22-1 SU streak and are adept this season to varying paces with 16-4 ATS mark in away games after two or more Under’s.

Butler (29-4, 14-19 ATS) passed their first test with bulldog determination, routing UTEP with huge 50-26 second half. The Bulldogs employed a great strategy against the Miners as explained by their head coach. "One of the things we try to do is we try to talk about not hitting home runs, it's single, single, single, single, one possession at a time, and we felt like if we played that way today we would be able to do some things," Stevens said of staying patient. Butler is 6-1 ATS the last seven times they have been a favorite of eight points or less.

Bookmaker.com has the Bulldogs as five-point faves with total of 128.5, but they are 3-10 ATS after they’ve covered the spread this season. Watch the total on this match, with Murray State 10-0 OVER after making 53 percent or less of their free throws and Butler 10-1 OVER in all neutral court games over the last three seasons. No. 13 seeds that score 70 or more points, concede less than 66 PPG and get less than 48 percent of points from the backcourt are 3-0 SU against five seeds. (Thanks, Bracketscience.com)

Ohio U vs. Tennessee 3:35E

Tennessee’s defense had problems with how San Diego State executed their offense in the paint area, in Saturday’s second round matinee, they will have to defend 25 or more feet to move on to Sweet 16. Ohio U. (22-14, 19-12 ATS) was the first 14th-seed to engineer an upset in four years, shooting 58.2 percent against Georgetown and draining 13-three balls. The dangerous duo of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper accounted for 55 points, making the Bobcats a tough out and they are 10-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.

Tennessee (26-8, 13-17-1 ATS) is an 8.5-point favorite and will have to use their size to move Ohio U. around and force feed the ball down low to Wayne Chism. After struggling mightily, J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson are showing signs of finding their offense, which would be important since they are 1-8 ATS away from Knoxville after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less.

Ohio U. is 6-0 ATS in March and 12-1 ATS in last 13 tries and 14th-seeds taking on six-seeds lose by 5.1 PPG on average.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas 5:40E

Kansas doesn’t play in many games with a total of 126.5. That is the second lowest number that has popped up on their plate the last three seasons. The Jayhawks (33-2, 14-17-1 ATS) has the skill level to alter their pace, as they are 12-6-3 ATS when the total is 136 or less the past three years. Kansas has the size and quickness edge to contain Northern Iowa (29-4, 22-10 ATS) in the paint and they are 9-1 ATS in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

The Panthers desperately have to control tempo, or they will get blown out. Northern Iowa has veteran experience and isn’t going to find the moment too big facing the nation’s No. 1 team. Against UNLV, after having issues with the Rebels press, the Panthers settled in and played their game. UNI is an 11.5-point underdog and is 11-4 ATS after four or more consecutive wins this season. They will need eight or more three-point plays to hang with Kansas and stay out of foul trouble in the frontcourt. Nine seeds that average less than 73 points and have scoring margin differential of less than seven points, are 0-46 SU facing a top seed.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 5:45E

Nobody is going to mistake Waco, TX as a basketball mecca, nevertheless Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS) is creating a stir with this talented bunch. The Bears wrestled with a hearty Sam Houston State bunch, winning by nine as 10.5-point chalk, but when it is your first NCAA victory in six decades, you don’t quibble about details. Baylor was led by Ekpe Udoh (20 points, 13 rebounds), who recorded his 15th double-double and they are 10-2 ATS having won four of their last five games this season.

Old Dominion (27-8, 13-17-1 ATS) followed the old tale of – Cut off the head and the body will die. The Monarchs prevented Notre Dame’s Luke Hanargody from scoring until the final minute and upset the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion played outstanding perimeter defense as the normally reliable Irish shooters were 6-26 from behind the three-point line and they helped expertly when the higher seed tried to dribble and drive. "I guess I'm kind of old school. I think we can guard people and stop them," coach Blaine Taylor said. The Monarchs have six straight wins (4-2 ATS) and are 4.5-point underdogs. ODU however is 0-6 ATS after six or more consecutive triumphs and 3 vs. 11 matchups have the higher seed winning by 8.8 PPG and if that team was not in the tournament the prior year, they are 12-0 SU.

Washington vs. New Mexico 5:50E

The final contest of the afternoon session should be frantic affair. Both teams score in the mid to upper 70’s and stingy defense is the not the strength of either club. Washington (25-9, 15-18 ATS) moved ahead thanks to Quincy Pondexter’s efforts, making two clutch baskets in the final 34 seconds, including the game winner with 1.7 seconds left. The Huskies are now 13-2 and 10-4 ATS since lost weekend in L.A. in Pac-10 action.

New Mexico (30-4, 18-14-1 ATS) looked nervous in opening contest against Montana and played well only is spurts, winning 52-47 as nine-point favorites. The Lobos don't have a starter taller than 6’8, yet they have a number of players that can fill the basket, including Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, forward Darington Hobson. The Lobos are 14-5 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and the number three seed is a 1.5-point underdog to Pac-10 post season champions.

What happens Thursday night in tourney?

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games. This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging.

Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Bookmaker.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.

Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.

San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.

8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.

UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.

The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.

Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

Say it isn't so, college hoops regular season ending?

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here, it seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charley Sheen’s marriage to his wife Brooke. This is the time for fun and action, where a 15-point lead at halftime can dry up faster than a puddle of water up against an Arizona March sun. So take advantage of situation and don’t worry about what you don’t have, rather what you are about to enjoy. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Mar. 6

West Virginia at Villanova (-3.5, 151) 12:00E CBS

The impact on the Big East standings would be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. West Virginia lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in low blocks finally caught up to them The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

The straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999.

Kansas at Missouri (+3, 145.5) 2:00E CBS

The Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State and have one more treacherous stop left. They played outstanding for all about seven minutes in crushing Kansas State by 17 points and has one last conference clash. Kansas (28-2) travels to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS), who lies in wait to conquer them. Coach Bill Self has been preaching at season, "We’ve got to have a killer instinct and bury people.” He’s seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri’s in the Big Dance and an upset should improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges. Guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and are 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

Syracuse at Louisville (+1, 145) 2:00E ESPN

The last team to finish 9-0 on the Big East road was Connecticut 11 years ago and they went on to win national championship. Syracuse (28-2, 19-7 ATS) is perfect thus far as conference guests and would love to saunter down a similar path this season. The Orangemen are also 11-0 and 10-1 ATS away from Syracuse and freshman guard Brandon Triche has the answer why. "Less to do. On the road, you can't really go out. All you do is just sit there and think about the game." The ‘Cuse is 9-0 ATS having won four of five games this season.

It has been an escalator ride for Louisville (19-11, 9-16 ATS) this season; going down after loss at St. John’s by 19 and going right back up when they knocked off Syracuse in New York in next outing. This is not your typical Rick Pitino club, normally peaking at this time, instead when asked where his team was headed late in the season, his response was “next game”. This has been a team marked with inconsistency, making them an unsafe wager at home, where the Cardinals are 14-4, with rueful 4-9 ATS mark. This will be the last game at Freedom Hall, where Louisville has won over 80 percent of their games in this building since playing their starting in the 1957/58 season.

Not many matchups with Louisville, still a relative newcomer to Big East, yet Syracuse is 0-5 and 0-4-1 ATS the last three years.

Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3.5, 138.5) 6:00E ESPN

The Bulldogs shocking loss at Auburn means they still have work to do to be outright West Division champions of the SEC. Mississippi State (21-9, 13-11 ATS) did not show their usual defensive tenacity, allowing the Tigers score the most points against them all season (89) and surrender highest shooting percentage for a the year at 51.7. This is extremely important contest for the Bulldogs since they are not secure for NCAA bid. Despite having 22 victories, a perusal of those accomplishments has Old Dominion as best win. Mississippi State needs a W and be playing in the SEC championship to give them best chance for invite. The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS off a SU loss and spread failure.

Tennessee’s fate for now is set, finishing third in the SEC East and playing LSU in first tournament game. Coach Bruce Pearl wants his Volunteers (22-7, 11-15 ATS) to look at the bigger picture. A win at Starksville and at least a couple victories next week in Nashville could have Tennessee climbing to possibly a third seed when the NCAA bids are announced. Scotty Hopson’s more aggressive offensive manner and Brian Williams energy, make the Vols a tougher team to knock off. Wagering wise not so much, having covered only three of last 12 SEC conflicts.

The underdog has been the correct side in seven of last 10 meetings.

North Carolina at Duke (-14.5, 146) 9:00E ESPN

Given the choice, ESPN would probably rather telecast great moments in North Carolina and Duke history, since this doesn’t set up to be one. The Tar Heels (16-14, 10-18 ATS) started the season with seven McDonald’s All-Americans and as the regular season closes, it appears Roy Williams picked up seven guys that ate at Micky D’s in his most frustrating season. North Carolina has shown a pulse lately winning and covering last two contests, yet UNC is 0-9 ATS facing teams outscoring foes by eight or more points after 15 or more contests.

It’s senior night for starters G Jon Scheyer, C Brian Zoubek and F Lance Thomas and what better way to go out than ACC regular season champs (or co-champs) with a win over their most hated rival. This is most versatile Duke (25-5, 17-11-1 ATS) team in a number of seasons as the year wore on, still needing Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to score, but the contributions have been coming in from different areas on game by game basis. The Blue Devils are 16-0 and 10-5 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium this campaign, winning by super-sized 26.1 points per game.

This however is normally very competitive matchup, with the Dukies 7-5 with 2-10 ATS home record against Carolina Blue since 1997.

Sunday, Mar. 7

Florida at Kentucky ( ) 12:00E CBS

The Gators conclude the regular season with a matchup with their biggest rival Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker. However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.

This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship. That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.

Kentucky has won nine of last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.

Michigan at Michigan State ( ) 4:00E CBS

The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February. Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Michigan (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 and has fallen faster than American Idol winner Taylor Hicks from the limelight. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed. Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as away underdog.

Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with 5-5 ATS record.

College Hoops Weekend Preview

For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 27

Northeastern at George Mason (+3, 125)12:00E ESPN2

One of the most underrated leagues in college basketball is the Colonial Athletic Conference. Each season is highly competitive and the top teams have invariably pulled a few upsets over BCS-type conferences and the quality of play usually leads to good showings in the NCAA Tourney or the minor post-season events. On the final weekend of the regular season, Northeastern (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) can still tie for conference crown with Old Dominion with a win and Monarchs loss, thanks to league leading defense that has permitted more than 64 points in CAA action just once. The Huskies are 7-5 and 8-3 ATS on the road this season.

George Mason (17-12, 10-15-1 ATS) sky-rocketed to the top off conference standings with 10-1 record, but a closer look revealed a 5-5-1 ATS mark, providing info the Patriots were not quite as potent as they appeared. February has been cruel to George Mason (2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS), as the freshmen stocked team has hit the wall. Don’t be shocked if senior guard Cam Long has a big day in his last home game at the Patriot Center. Watch for oddsmakers number since Patriots are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.

George Mason has won and covered previous four confrontations in Fairfax, VA and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in these CAA contests.

Kentucky at Tennessee (+2.5, 140.5) 12:00E CBS (split)

Nothing stirs the orange-clad Tennessee fans to see red, like the blue in Kentucky basketball uniform. The Hatfield’s and McCoy’s feud had nothing on these two universities, where genuine hatred exists between the neighboring states. Coach Bruce Pearl has coached up his team since the trials and tribulations of the new year occurred, however recently, the loss of Tyler Smith, injuries and slumps have seen them struggle. “You can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” senior guard J.P. Prince said. Pearl almost assuredly will be in the orange sports jacket and the Vols (20-7, 10-14 ATS) are 20-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick.

Though Kentucky (27-1, 15-11 ATS) plays its four freshmen extensively, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are arguably as talented as anyone playing their respective positions. The earlier South Carolina road loss may have been a blessing, since forward Patrick Patterson listened to the criticism and has raised his play to the level of his ability and his team has gone on to win eight straight (6-2 ATS). He was the difference-maker in recent overtime wins at Mississippi State and at Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 7-2 ATS dating back to last season if the opponent has a winning home record.

Kentucky has taken seven of the last dozen in Knoxville, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS wherever they have played in previous 13 outings.

Arizona State at California (-6, 140.5) 3:00E FSN

These are likely to be the only two Pac-10 schools invited to the Big Dance and if either falters in their conference tournament early, even that becomes a question mark. This is Arizona State’s third consecutive and final road game of the year and they hope next weekend’s home finales will be meaningful for the Pac-10 title. The first order of business is knocking off Cal and the Sun Devils (20-8, 11-13 ATS) don’t believe in trickery to upset opposing teams. Arizona State isn’t going to “wow” anyone with personnel, instead they play defense and take care of the ball, which is why they are 8-1 ATS in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers.

California (19-9, 15-12 ATS) was the preseason choice to win the Pac-10 and they have positioned themselves to do just that 11-5 record. Senior point guard Jerome Randle, with a strong finish might be conference Player of the Year and fellow senior Jamal Boykin has been playing his best basketball of the season. The Bears are a much better club when sophomore guard Jorge Gutierrez (out six games in January) is on the floor, because he adds ferocity and energy. Cal is 15-3 ATS at home facing a team with a winning record.

Both teams have five conferences defeats and California has a game in hand, having only Stanford remaining on the schedule. The Bears won in Tempe 78-70 as four-point underdogs previously and are 14-1 and 10-4 ATS at home, mauling opponents by 19.3 points per contest. Cal is 7-5 at the Haas Pavilion against ASU since ’97, however have only covered the spread three times.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (+5.5, 144) 4:00E CBS

The Jayhawks (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) have been learning valuable lessons as the season has progressed. Being No. 1 most of the year has forced the Kansas players to expect everyone to be gunning for them. In games at Kansas State, at Colorado, at Texas A&M and even at home vs. Baylor, the Jayhawks had to fight to win, were a less mentally strong team would have lost. Coach Bill Self has his squad back playing for each other and nobody wants to let anyone down. The next adventure is in Stillwater and Kansas is 17-4 ATS against teams with 60%-80% win percentage.

The Cowboys (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS) internal mettle is being tested, facing their third consecutive ranked team in the Jayhawks, after beating Baylor and tumbling to Texas. Any chance for an upset lies in the hands of James Anderson. The junior guard can go from mild to habanero hot in two shots and teammates Keiton Page, Obi Muonelo and Matt Pilgrim end up benefiting as opponents become focused on cooling down Anderson. Oklahoma State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big 12, which won’t cut it against Kansas. Okie State is 15-5 ATS on own floor vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or more points a contest.

The Cowboys have split six tilts at home vs. Kansas with four covers and the UNDER is 5-0.

New Mexico at BYU (-8,152.5) 4:00E VERSUS

The Mountain West crown could be on the line in Provo, with New Mexico (26-3, 17-10-1 ATS) looking for the sweep of BYU. The Lobos have been dealing and have ample confidence, which is supported by 9-2 and 5-5-1 ATS road record. We're just real confident," senior forward Roman Martinez said. "We always respect our opponent, but I think we're playing confident now and more calm than we used to be." This will help New Mexico who is 12-3 and 10-4 ATS when playing with three or more days off.

This MWC matchup is doubly important for BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS), since they try to even season series and still have road games remaining. Senior Jonathan Tavernari has had a relatively disappointing final season, nevertheless has started to find the range in last few weeks, proving why he is the school’s 12th all-time leading scorer. Tavernari has maintained a positive outlook as being just the Cougars fourth leading scorer this season. “The reason this team is so good is we have so many options," Tavernari said. BYU is on 12-1 ATS mission in February contests.

With both clubs having two losses in the conference, the straight up winner is perfect 13-0 ATS since 2003.

Villanova at Syracuse (-5.5,157) 9:00E ESPN

While this won’t necessarily determine the champion of the Big East, it will go a long way towards deciding it. This is the most anticipated regular season game of the year in the conference and Scottie Reynolds will lead a veteran Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) squad into the Carrier Dome, long on big game experience. Both teams have talented deep backcourts, which could offset one another, meaning what goes on in the painted area might determine your winner. Forward Antonio Pena, will need the likes of Taylor King, Maurice Sutton, Isaiah Armwood and possibly even Mouphtaou Yarou, all to be a factor for a club that 11-3 and 9-5 ATS away from home.

Coach Jay Wright will play funky defenses designed to confuse, which he can with his guard contingent that are amoeba-like in adaptability, which is why Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS) has to establish dominance in the lane. Finding ways to feed the post to Rick Jackson and Arinze Onuaku opens up wing players like Wes Johnson and sub Kris Joseph, to score in various ways and clears shooting lines for Andy Rautins and others. The Orangemen are 9-2 ATS versus good defensive teams permitting 42 or less field goal accuracy.

Coaching adjustments will also be important and so will rebounding. The team with most boards is 13-1 SU and ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 28

Richmond at Xavier (-7, 136.6) 1:00E ESPN2

It wasn’t supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5’11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.

Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn’t holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier’s. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.

Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.

Michigan State at Purdue (-4, 135) 4:00E CBS

The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo’s crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.

A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue’s latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.

Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.

Clemson at Florida State (-4, 133.5) 5:30E FSN

The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.

Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team’s leading scorer (12.0) and he’ll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.

Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.

Ranked squads hit the road

This evening in college basketball, three teams from various power conferences will place their Top 25 ranking on display against opponents on their home floor. This certainly adds to the degree of difficulty trying to emerge victorious and keep lofty status with an eye on seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each has something to accomplish in enemy territory, here is a preview of what might happen.

Trying to break fall

Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) has lost two in a row for the first time all season and will visit a place where victories for road teams are like reduced bank fees, not as easy to come by as they might appear. The Hoyas are 6-3 and 5-4 ATS against ranked teams, but recent losses to Rutgers and South Florida shows focus is an issue, not being able to stay on an even enough keel.

Georgetown is 10-24 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons and travels to Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS), who has moved a game ahead of the Hoyas in the Big East standings with 9-5 record, thanks to three wins in a row. Coach John Thompson III team has not been on the floor since last Thursday and they will need every ounce of energy, since they lack depth and the Cardinals will press most likely the entire game using 10 or more players to keep up the pressure before the home crowd where Louisville is 14-3 (4-8 ATS). After being a top Big East plays for a few seasons, Rick Pitino’s crew has sagged noticeably with 3-10 ATS record after a conference game this season.

Bookmaker.com has Georgetown as three-point underdog at 7:00 Eastern for ESPN2 clash and they cannot allow the Cardinals to reach their typical home scoring average (78.1) since they are 10-26 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

Rarified air intoxicating for Wildcats

Kansas State has moved to its highest ranking since John Kennedy was still the president of the United States (1962) and this is a treacherous matchup for team with visions of revenge and No. 2 seed. The Wildcats are 22-4 (15-6 ATS) and their next two contests are vs. teams they’ve lost to, however, unless they are careful, K-State could get nicked again. Kansas State is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last three seasons.

Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS) can scare the life out a team in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 13-3 (8-3 ATS) on their own floor, with the losses by a total of 11 points. Texas Tech lacks the physical ability of Kansas State, but not the heart. “Our kids just didn’t quit and battled all the way to the end,” coach Pat Knight said of four point loss to Texas. “I kept telling them ‘if you hang around good things can happen.’ The Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS at home versus teams outscoring opponents by eight or points a game the last few years.

Kansas State is a six-point road choice, with total of 158.5 and is tough to beat after a hot shooting game and is 6-0 ATS after they’ve made 50 percent or more of 3-point shots. Do not discount the Red Raiders who are 9-2 ATS in home games when the total is 150 to 159.5.

Tennessee tries to avoid being Gator bait

After losing four of seven, Tennessee (20-6, 10-13 ATS) would like to believe they have stabilized with consecutive wins. The Volunteers are tied with Florida at 8-4 in the SEC East, one game behind Vanderbilt and want to keep building late season momentum. Seniors like guard Bobby Maze are feeling their college basketball mortality and want to assure they are doing things right. “As the clock ticks down, I want people to remember me here,” Maze said of his collegiate career. “That I gave it my all on the floor and against the best players, I rise to the occasion.” In all likelihood, he and his Vols teammates will have to rise to the occasion since they are 11-22 ATS in road games after playing consecutive games as favorite.

Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS) is looking to make late season push also. The Gators won and covered at Mississippi as road underdogs 64-61, despite shooting 36.5 percent and would seem to have the greater motivation. Florida has missed out on last two NCAA Tournaments after being back to back champions and has a strong desire to return to Big Dance. In addition, they have lost six straight to Tennessee (1-4-1 ATS) and are 14-5 ATS off a close win by three points or less over a SEC rival.

The Volunteers are three-point road dogs and are 13-26 ATS facing poor 3-point shooting teams, converting on 31 percent or less of their attempts. This SEC showdown begins after 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.

Time to get serious about wagering college basketball

What a weird weekend for television viewing in college hoops. With conference races heating up, to be taken seriously as college basketball bettor you have to know the surroundings. While ESPN for the most part does fine work in identify quality matchups, they first are concerned about ratings. And while a lot of people like to watch and wager, do really trite matchups like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and N.C. State and North Carolina really hold anyone’s interest these days, unless you attended those universities, even during rivalry week. We’ll have information on many of the key games that are televised, however we also will inform readers about important contests like those in the Big Sky and Colonial Athletic Conferences, where something is at stake. Are you with me here! I thought so. Lines from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Feb. 13

Maryland at Duke (-10, 147.5)1:00E CBS

Before the season began, the general feeling was the ACC might be more competitive top to bottom than in years. Those beliefs have been prophetic and this will be a matchup that will help sort out the logjam. Maryland (16-6, 10-7 ATS) has nice collection of players, but for them to emerge victorious, forward Landon Milbourne and guard Greivis Vasquez have to be the Terps top point producers. Look for Duke to play rough and do some talking, since Vasquez can get off his game, flapping the lips and being too emotional. Maryland is 16-7 AT in road games when facing a team with a winning record past the midpoint of season and is 5-2 and 5-1 ATS in true away games this season.

Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS) looked like a tired squad in loss to Georgetown at the end of January, playing four games in 10 days. Now this ACC clash will be their fourth in nine days, at least they will have the crowd support to spur them on. The Blue Devils could really use Kyle Singler to begin filling the bucket with greater regularity, since the team has become too dependent of Jon Scheyer to do everything. Singler has to hit medium and three-point shots to open up the lane for players in the paint, which in turn opens up jump shooters to have clearer looks. Duke is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists a contest.

Maryland is 8-1 ATS in 2010 and Duke is 13-0 and 9-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor. What will happen, the outright winner is 13-0-1 ATS in last 14 encounters for the only teams with two ACC losses.

Missouri at Baylor (-4, 144.5) 1:45E Big 12 Network

The Tigers and Bears are looking to move up in the Big 12 standings and do battle in Baylor. Missouri’s style is to pressure the entire court, nonetheless that is nearly impossible to do unless they make shots, which sets up the press. A quick perusal of Mizzou’s season shows most losses have occurred on off-shooting outings. Make baskets and the Tigers (18-6, 10-8 ATS) are 13-5 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

This is important contest for Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS), since they will either be favored or a short road underdog in next five Big 12 engagements. The Bears follow the lead of guard Tweety Carter, who can score or dish. The Baylor big people add more than expected and do nice work cleaning the glass. That point is meaningful since Missouri will force turnovers, making rebounding a must to control an aspect of the contest. The Bears are 22-9 AT against teams who make eight or more 3-point shots a game.

Baylor has covered last six meetings in Waco, winning four times.

Rhode Island at Temple (-4.5, 133) 4:00E Comcast

A glance at the A-10 standings shows this race is going down to final weekend to crown regular season champion, with seven teams having either two or three league losses. One of the matchups that will help determine the eventual outcome is this tilt. Rhode Island (19-4, 8-10-2 ATS) would make Al Davis smile, since all they do is win. That method of play makes the Rams a poor play at home and swell choice on the road as 8-2 and 6-2-2 ATS proves. On game by game basis, Rhode Island has a lot of answers to take down opposing clubs.

No. 21 Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS) has put together an impressive body of work in 2009-10. Victories over Villanova, Siena and Virginia Tech, along with its strong play in the A-10 makes the Owls a hoot. All year Temple has been among the best teams in college basketball in fewest points allowed (57.6), yet is not deficient in scoring (65.0), like other comparable units. This is not a squib; the Owls are 32-13 ATS against conference opponents over the last three seasons.

Rhode Island tries to prevent season sweep, however is 2-9 and 4-7 ATS at the Liacouras Center, against a Temple team that is 10-1 and 7-4 ATS on its home court.

George Mason at Old Dominion (-13.5, 122.5)4:00E Comcast-DC

These two squads trail Northeastern by a game in the Colonial Conference at 13-3 and each will look to at least keep pace Saturday afternoon. George Mason (16-9, 10-11-1 ATS) was school record 10-1 in January (6-4-1 ATS) and has stumbled a couple of times this month at Georgia State and at Drexel. The Patriots are young team and they are about to find just how good they really are. With guard Cam Long their best player, George Mason is 6-2 ATS on Saturday’s.

Old Dominion (19-7, 8-13-1 ATS) was pasted by the Patriots 71-55 as six-point road favorites on Jan. 2, before anyone realized how good they might be. The Monarchs are built around playing solid defense, permitting a meager 55.2 points per game. ODU came together as a team when Kent Bazemore was paired with Darius James in the backcourt. Old Dominion is 12-0 at the Constant Convocation Center, winning by whopping 19.8 PPG, however is only 3-5-1 ATS.

Watch the underdog in this one, who is sporting 6-2 ATS mark

Memphis at Tulsa (-2.5, 132) 7:00E ESPN2

Memphis fans are finding out what it is like to no longer be elite. The Tigers have been clipped for a couple of C-USA losses, as Tigers’ fan jealously think of how John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would have looked in Memphis blue. The Tigers (17-7, 6-13 ATS) are no longer privileged, going just seven deep and six players absorbing the majority of the minutes. Coach Josh Pastner knows what he will receive most nights from the backcourt, up front, not so much. Memphis is just 1-6 ATS against clubs with winning home record.

Tulsa (19-5, 7-13-1 ATS) has two exemplary players in guard Ben Uzoh and center Jerome Jordan and they are the only two to start every game this season. With Memphis finally vulnerable, the senior duo understands this is their time and they want to be the top dog of the league. The Golden Hurricane can board, leading the conference in rebound margin, but get very few easy baskets ranking last in creating turnovers. Tulsa still has other taxing affairs ahead, yet a win here breeds confidence for a team that is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.

Both teams have two conference losses and trail once beaten UTEP. The loser could be out of C-USA contention and Memphis likes their chances since they have won last 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS), including last four visits to Tulsa, covering three times.

Northern Colorado at Weber State (-4.5, 148 ) 9:00E

In the Big Sky Conference, Northern Colorado (20-5, 11-11 ATS) attempts to catch Weber State (16-8, 12-8 ATS) for first place. Will Figures and Devon Beitzel are the Bears two leading scorers this team is at its best against quality competition with 8-3 ATS record vs. outfits with a winning record.

Weber State is at the head of the conference leaderboard, having won six of seven since losing at Northern Colorado. The Wildcats are trying to win their second straight regular-season conference championship which is meaningful since the regular-season champ plays host to the semifinals and championship game of the league tournament. A usual, Weber State is tyrant at home with 10-1 mark and 5-3 ATS record. They have covered 41 of last 61 home games.

Northern Colorado is the underdog and covered the spread last night for the first time since beating Weber State eight games ago.

Tennessee at Kentucky (-9.5, 147) 9:00E ESPN

You have to tip your cap to coach Bruce Pearl. While most coaches and players talk about overcoming adversity, which many people never quite grasp, this Tennessee (18-5, 9-11 ATS) club really has with earlier suspensions that rocked the team. It says a lot about the coach and players. Though basketball is a team game, each individual had to make conscious decision to played better, work harder and the basketball world marvels at what the Volunteers have been able to accomplish since the new year began. Pearl will need another trick up his sleeve at Kentucky; however the Vols are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs.

All the early discussion was how terrific guard John Wall was the best point guard since Jason Kidd coming into college. Wall has not disappointed anyone with his singular play, but as the season has worn on, center DeMarcus Cousins has turned into a double-double machine. He wants the ball when Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS) needs a basket and as opposed to many 6’11 big guys, he’s got a good stroke from the free throw line. One of the most striking aspects of these two and fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe, they love to compete and when Big Blue is off a non-cover like what happened against Alabama the last time out, they are 20-8 ATS, including this group at 10-0 and 7-1 ATS.

The Wildcats have taken 10 of last 12 at Rupp Arena vs. the Vols, thou are 6-6 ATS.

Sunday, Feb. 14

Ohio State at Illinois (+1.5, 137) 1:00E CBS

This matchup has Big Ten Network written all over two weeks ago, instead it’s an indicator of who might emerge as conference champions. Illinois (17-8, 9-13-1 ATS) was NIT bound after losing three league games in a row in the middle of January. Nobody gave them much a chance, since they still had the meat of their schedule ahead, however three wins gave the team confidence, which were followed by upsets of Michigan State and Wisconsin and an overzealous Brent Musburger has Bruce Webber up for coach of the year with this turnaround. What Webber really did is punish bad behavior from various players by giving them splinter time and they have roared back. The Fighting Illini are 12-1 in Champaign and perfect 9-0 as home favorites, though 3-6 ATS.

Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) has won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) to crawl back into Big Ten chase. The return of Evan Turner has made this team complete and they are hell-bent on winning it all since Turner is likely to enter NBA Draft after the season. Turner’s ability to score allows William Buford and David Lighty to find more open shots. Illinois will also have to contend with center Dallas Lauderdale, who is a load in the low blocks. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS away from Columbus and Thad Matta coached teams are 6-17 ATS after making 20 percent from the three-point arc.

The Illini are 6-3 SU and ATS hosting Ohio State and swept them last season.

Louisville at Syracuse (-8, 150.5) 1:00E ESPN

Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) has not met lowered expectations from a season ago, facing a slate loaded with landmines. The Cardinals have been on the short side of a number of road games in the Big East, however Rick Pitino isn’t about to lay all the blame on his players. “I’ve had it with the officiating (in the conference). That’s why I’m not going to say anymore. I’ve had it.”—Coach Pitino. He’ll hope the zebras won’t be an issue on Valentine’s Day, with his club 14-5 ATS in February games over the last three seasons.

Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS) caught many prognosticators off guard in November, yet this club has methodically gone about its basketball business and keeps winning games. The Orangemen have suffered a couple of sleepy starts in recent weeks, but showed their talent and grit in overcoming Georgetown and DePaul. If Syracuse is really Final Four material, over the next month have to be less risky when handling the ball, trying to make too many ESPN highlight plays. Facing a pressing Louisville squad could be a step in the right direction for a team that is 13-5 ATS playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Orange is 2-5 and 1-5-1 ATS vs. the ‘Ville in last 12 years.

Rivalry Week lives up to billing tonight

For the most part, this made for cable sports broadcasting concept work well putting on a variety of top line games to watch and wager on. The situations are presumed to work and sometimes the schedule and prior events bring added importance to these matchups. It’s a battle of Tennessee when Vandy hosts the Volunteers in Nashville and the Big Ten has four of its top five teams in action in extremely important conference clashes. It promises to be quite a Tuesday for Rivalry Week.

Volunteer State Scuffle

Vanderbilt and Tennessee are positioned one game behind Kentucky in the SEC East and the winner will be no worse off at the completion of this conflict. Vanderbilt (17-5, 10-9 ATS) blew a golden opportunity Saturday to stay tied with the Wildcats falling at last place Georgia 72-58 as 4.5-point favorites. The Commodores shot 32.8 percent from the field (6-23 from 3’s) and did a real poor job defensively as the Bulldogs shot 53.2 percent and had nearly as many assists as baskets. Vandy will have to be much more efficient at home since they are 5-13-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Tennessee (18-4, 9-10 ATS) continues to confound, winners of three in a row after suffering a pair of SEC losses, one of which was to Vanderbilt. Wayne Chism is off a career high 30 points against South Carolina and he needs to be a defensive stalwart on the road. The Vols are just 2-5 ATS in last seven conference games.

The Volunteers are 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 battles, including 7-2 ATS at Vandy and are 3.5-point road underdogs at Bookmaker.com. This contest is on ESPN at 7 Eastern.

State Line Collision

Illinois and Wisconsin really don’t have much of a rivalry except for those that live on either side of the border between the two states. Folks south of the border see Wisconsin as nice quiet place to visit for vacations and those from the Badger State have little use for “those Flat-landers”. The Kohl Center will be no vacation spot for coach Bruce Pearl’s club, who is off its signature win of the season against Michigan State 78-73. The Fighting Illini (16-8, 8-13-1 ATS) has won four in a row and is in three-way tie for second place, one game behind Michigan State, however they are only 2-7-1 ATS off a cover since last season.

The Badgers (18-5, 13-8 ATS) have just taken care of both Michigan schools and return home where they are 13-0 and 8-3 ATS this season. Wisconsin is receiving fine performances Keaton Nankivil and Jordan Taylor, both who have raised their play since Jon Leuer was injured and coach Bo Ryan has developed a little depth with forward Ryan Evans and guard Rob Wilson making solid contributions. Off their win and cover at Ann Arbor, Wisconsin is 10-2 and 7-3 ATS after covering the oddsmakers number.

Wisconsin is a 9.5-point favorite and is 3-0-1 ATS the last four times Illinois has visited and the Under is 4-1 in the Mad City. This encounter is on the Big Ten Network at 7 Eastern.

Spartans in survival mode

Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS) had kept winning, yet aesthetically was far from pleasing in starting Big Ten play 9-0. Among the reasons have been Raymar Morgan hasn’t always played with complete effort and is Casper the Ghost on the floor at times, particularly when foul problems arrive. Sophomore forward Delvon Roe continues to struggle, which is why sixth man Draymond Green continues to see heavy minutes. The Spartans were blasted by the Badgers for their first conference loss and with injured Kalin Lucas on the sidelines, could not match baskets with improbable Illinois club. Lucas’ status is still up in the air for tonight and it is time for these other players to assertive themselves, since Purdue is in town and their mindset is aggressive. Sparty is 33-14 ATS when they grab more than 45 rebounds.

It seems odd a Top 20 team would still be tinkering with main players in February, yet this is exactly what coach Matt Painter has been doing. A few Purdue (19-3, 10-12 ATS) bench players and occasionally starters have been more erratic than the Real Housewives of Orange Country. Nobody would prefer to have certain individuals step up more than Painter, with eight Big Ten games on the docket. Sophomore point guard Lewis Jackson has played 41 total minutes in three games since returning from a broken left foot that sidelined him and some of the rust is starting to come off which would help since the Boilermakers are 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.

First place Michigan State is favored by 2.5points and is 9-1 and 7-3 ATS at the Breslin Center vs. Purdue with 6-2 UNDER mark. Game time will be just after 9 Eastern on ESPN.

College Hoops Dominates Landscape

For a lot of casual bettors and fans, this is really the kickoff of the college basketball season. Forget the fact that more than half the season has already been played, with no football this weekend (unless you consider the Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl football) a vast number of people start turning their attention towards college hoops and beginning mentally prepping for March Madness which is not that many weeks away. Here is a look at some of the top matches this weekend on the collegiate hardwood. Sides and total from Bookmaker.com.

Saturday, Jan. 3o

Louisville at West Virginia (-7, 137.5) 12:00E ESPN

Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS), playing in the Big East is going to face more than their fair share of challenging opponents and as per usual went out of conference to face a number of tough hombres. Come tournament time that helps your resume, however it really helps the confidence of the team to beat a Top 25 club, not just play with them. The Cardinals are 0-4 SU and ATS against ranked teams and will have another shot to improve against West Virginia. The Cards are 18-7 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.

Since its fast start, West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS) has been erratic in its play since 2010 began with 5-3 and 3-5 ATS record. Continual 40 minute effort has been lacking, with the Mountaineers playing like characters in a Rob Zombie movie, with no visible signs of emotion. What has curtailed West Virginia’s excellence is their star players have not been playing like stars. Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks have been off their game somewhat and it has had a trickle affect on the team. They will look to find earlier rhythm and are 38-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more three point shots a game.

Louisville has failed to cover their last five contests; however is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS against West Virginia the last dozen years.

Duke at Georgetown (+2, 141.5) 1:00E CBS

As opposed to previous few seasons, this Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) team could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament instead of being bounced early on. This matchup with Georgetown will be a good barometer where the Blue Devils are at present and what improvements they should work on. Credit Kyle Singler for finding ways to work thru shooting slump. Instead of just firing away, he brought his game closer to the basket, taking more 10-15 foot shots and worked the offensive glass, building confidence until he was back in groove for team that is 11-21 ATS against the Big East.

The same measuring stick can all be used by Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS), who was scorched by Syracuse 73-56 after starting the contest with 14-0 lead. The Hoyas Greg Monroe has become the focal point of the team, delivering all over the floor and his desire to run on the break not only shows hustle, but a willingness to be team player, hungry to win. In reviewing Georgetown’s season, one fact sticks out like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeries, if Chris Wright doesn’t play well, the Hoyas will labor to be victorious. G-Town is a raunchy 11-22 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.

Duke comes in 10-4 ATS off a win like they enjoyed over Florida State, while Georgetown is 8-2-1 ATS in non-conference tilts. With both teams ranked, the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in five previous meetings.

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-7.5, 145.5) 2:00E ESPN

The top three teams in the Big 12 have been established, but who is one rung down? We’ll start to find out with this encounter. Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) is a smallish team, too dependent on outside shooting, which explains them ranking ninth in the conference in buckets made. When the offense breaks down, all eyes turn to guard James Anderson to bail them out. Though Anderson his very good player, he can’t be counted on to make shots from bad spots on the floor with the shot clock winding down. The Cowboys are going to have to step up after losing two of last three as visitors and are 26-43 ATS as a road underdog or pick.

Missouri’s unique brand of basketball is a little like the triple option in football, you can simulate it in practice, but that doesn’t mean you are ready for it in games. The Tigers (15-5, 8-6 ATS) defensive pressure forces over 20 turnovers a game, however what coach Mike Anderson’s club doesn’t get credit for is defending the perimeter, allowing the lowest three-point percentage of buckets made in the Big 12. Missouri’s front line looks to matchup and secure a draw, being inexperienced and having the guards to score points. The Tigers are 21-12 ATS as a favorite since last year.

Okie State has a three game win streak in the works and is 17-5-1 ATS off a SU victory. Missouri is perfect 12-0 at home this season (5-2 ATS) and is 21-6 against the spread in last 27 contests in Columbia. The straight up winner is 8-1-1 ATS since 2002.

Washington State at Washington (-8.5, 156) 3:30E FSN

Alright, the Pac-10 has a foul odor about it and even the Patriot League looks more interesting this season. Nonetheless, somebody has to win this conference and these two teams believe they can answer the bell to be that team. Washington State (14-6, 6-11 ATS) is your classic ADHD team, seldom focusing for long periods of time without drifting into other thoughts. Coach Ken Bone is looking a more even keel approach and threatened to start sitting players if they are not ready to play, even star Klay Thompson. The Cougars are 10-19 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game.

Coach Lorenzo Romar had seen enough. After three indifferent Pac-10 performances that ended up being losses, coach Romar inserted forward Justin Holiday into the starting lineup and he set the table with his defensive energy for others to follow. Senior Quincy Pondexter was pleased with the shakeup, since as a senior; he wants to win the Pac-10 title. Unfortunately, Washington (13-7) went to Los Angeles last weekend and was swept by the L.A. universities leaving them three games behind California in the Pac-10 chase. The Huskies want to hurry the pace and are 35-18 ATS when they score 75 to 80 points.

Washington is one of the worst bets in college basketball at 5-14 ATS. The Huskies have taken nine of last 12 at Bank of America Arena in the Apple Cup rivalry, but have played like dogs with just four covers.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-8.5, 154) 4:00E ESPN

Two weeks ago this SEC showdown would have been footnote in most newspapers across the country. That has abruptly changed with what has happen the last 14 days. Vanderbilt (16-3, 10-6 ATS) is the last unbeaten team in the conference with their impressive 85-76 win at Tennessee as six-point underdogs. That gave the Commodores 10 straight wins (7-2 ATS) and they are bubbling to the top as one of the best shooting teams in the country at 49.8 percent. Vandy shooters have been dandy, making less than half their attempts just twice in this streak. This underappreciated squad is 13-2 and 10-4 ATS off a SU triumph.

Top-ranked Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS) was the last unbeaten to fall, being demonized by South Carolina guard Devan Downey, who literally threw in 30 points against the Wildcats. Coach John Calipari was mildly disappointed, more frustrated his team was outworked. However like any good coach, he’s not going to dwell on one defeat. “It’s a great lesson,” Calipari said. “A lot of times, until you take an ‘L’ they don’t want to believe you. Especially with how young we are.” Kentucky may be a young team, however the most shocking aspect from the loss was the no-show performance from junior Patrick Patterson, who totaled five points (0 in last 20 minutes) and lacked any sort of assertiveness they may have made the difference, especially from an upperclassman. The Cats are 8-0 and 5-1 ATS off a non-cover.

Kentucky will face a far more balanced team in Vanderbilt than they witnessed at South Carolina. Playing before Ashley Judd and the rest of the zealous Kentucky fans will be a big plus, along with being 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS against Vandy since 1998 in Lexington.

Kansas at Kansas State (+4, 155) 7:00E ESPN

Though Kansas (19-1,9-7-1 ATS) probably is the most talented team in the country, it hasn’t shown the killer instinct that of the club that won the national championship two years ago. The Jayhawks will go on auto-pilot emotionally and as coach Bill Self acknowledged, this group doesn’t like to embarrass opponents and flex their intimidation muscles like their predecessors. Kansas is 10-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season, but if they don’t bring a bucket of raw emotion like did in mauling Missouri this past Monday, they could stumble again.

Kansas State’s got game, a lot of game. The Wildcats (17-3, 11-4 ATS) not only have a sound backcourt, their frontline has proven to be vastly underrated. Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels have found ways to score in the paint and Luis Colon can be a defensive presence when not committing senseless fouls. Though Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente make a terrific backcourt combination, Rodney McGruder has a spark plug off the bench as third guard and will eat up more minutes if either of the other two is having off night. K-State is 9-2 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by four or points game this campaign.

This series is not a pantisocracy, with Kansas 11-1 SU and ATS at Bramlage Coliseum since 1997.

Sunday, Jan. 31

Florida at Tennessee (-7.5, 141 ) 1:00E CBS

Coach Billy Donovan has a conundrum. “I have a hard time figuring these guys out sometimes,” Donovan said. This is the main reason why Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) stumbled out of the SEC gate and is trying to play catch up in the formidable East Division. Among the problems is forward Dan Werner’s prolonged shooting slump. Though guard Erving Walker has been drilling shots beyond the arc, other than Alex Tyus, game to game the scoring has been spotty. The better teams continue to beat the Gators off dribble penetration and they do a poor job on rotation giving up too many easy buckets. They have strung together four SEC wins playing three of those games in Gainesville, but must be sound defensively since Florida is 0-7 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points.

This might be Bruce Pearl’s best coaching job. Losing four players to suspension (two returned) and having to end the career of his best player Tyler Smith for transgressions, Pearl helped unite his squad and they accepted responsibility. Often the merry prince, senior center Wayne Chism immediately thrust himself into leadership role and his on-court play jumped markedly. Presumed freshman sensation Kenny Hall was buried on the Tennessee bench, however after the upheaval; he’s become instant energy off the bench for the Vols. Veterans J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Bobby Maze have all become better players particularly on defense.

The Vols (15-4, 8-8 ATS) are 11-3 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of their shots, but have failed to connect on more than 44 percent in last four games, losing the last two outright as favorites. Has the emotion worn off for Tennessee and now they are starting to feel the pain of not having Smith? Everyone finds out since the Volunteers are 9-3 and 8-4 ATS vs. Florida the last 12 seasons.

Maryland at Clemson (-4.5, 145 ) 5:30E FSN

The Terrapins started the season in the Top 25 and haven’t returned since losing two of three in Hawaii. That started a period of dissonant play in December, however since the calendar started a new year, Maryland (14-5, 8-6 ATS) is looking more like a ranked team again winning six of seven, including four in a row (6-0 ATS in January). Senior guard Greivis Vasquez is good for at least 20 points most nights and Landon Milbourne has regained level of more consistent play. Maryland was probably a bit overrated to begin with and everyone will have to play well against Clemson’s full court press. They Terps are 16-6 ATS in road games since 2007.

Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS) begins an important stretch of games, playing four of the next five at home after losing three in a row. Finished with Duke and North Carolina, the Tigers can write their own ticket for the ACC, trying to maneuver up from eighth place. Clemson has frequently played imposing basketball, but can’t sustain it for two halves often enough. They’ve built big leads and lost them and fallen behind and made furious comebacks, coach Oliver Purnell would prefer to see the pendulum not swing as dramatically. Clemson is 12-4 ATS in home games facing teams converting 45 or percent of their shots.

Maryland has won seven of 11 at Clemson with 4-6-1 ATS mark.

Hump Day Spotlights Ranked Teams

Other than Saturday, Wednesday is the most time-consuming and harried for the sports basketball bettor. Betting college basketball properly involves a great deal of time, as does looking thru a full slate of NBA encounters. Today we’ll focus on the four key games in college hoops pertaining to conference play.

Villanova on historical pace

Last season’s trip to the Final Four helped bring Villanova back into the discussion about the best teams in college basketball. For an encore, coach Jay Wright’s team is trying to better that. The Wildcats 18-1 start (14-4 ATS) matches the record of a Villanova team from 59 years ago and they remain the only unbeaten club in the taxing Big East Conference at 7-0. Their lone defeat (75-65) was to fellow city member Temple back on Dec. 13 and that loss looks far better today with the Owls not having lost in A-10 action.

Villanova has racked up nine consecutive wins since then and is 10-3 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. Led by Scottie Reynolds, the Wildcats are tough, have great resolve and are a lot like another Philly icon from the movies, Rocky, who has to be knocked out in order to be defeated. There isn’t much this team doesn’t do right, shooting almost 47 percent, 38.4 percent from downtown and convert better than 75 percent from the charity stripe. When it comes to effort, they hold opposing teams to 39.5 percent shooting and out-rebound them by seven a game. No wonder they are 10-3 ATS off a game where they covered the spread this season.

DiamondSportsbook.com has Nova as 10.5-point home favorites, with total of 167 at the Wachovia Center. This is their second trip this season into this venue and Villanova is 12-4 ATS as a favorite and will have to deal with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, the Big East’s leading scorer at 24.7 points a game. The Fighting Irish (15-5, 7-6-1 ATS) can match scores with Villanova, however is nowhere near as skilled defensively. Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.

Vandy is dandy

With top-ranked Kentucky suffering their first loss of the season, only one squad remains undefeated in the SEC, which is confounding Vanderbilt (15-3, 9-6 ATS). The Commodores have run off nine straight wins since losing to Illinois and Western Kentucky in the early days of December. Vanderbilt is 5-0 in the SEC for the first time in 44 years and is led by junior center A.J. Ogilvy. Vandy works the ball expertly to find quality shots and makes 49.7 of attempts as a team which explains 6-2 ATS record in this hot streak.

Laying in wait is ambitious in-state rival Tennessee (15-3, 8-7 ATS), who lost their first conference game at Georgia 78-63 this past Saturday. Coach Bruce Pearl knows Vanderbilt will play zone, daring his inconsistent three-point attack to beat them deep. The Tennessee fans will be in full throat as their team is 26-11 ATS at home games playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher. The Vols are 6.5-point favorites on ESPNU starting at 7 Eastern and the Vanderbilt guards will have to hold up to the pressure defense better than their predecessors, as they are 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams forcing 18 or more turnovers.

Blue Devils defense looks to respond again

Duke was upset last week at N.C. State 88-74, allowing the Wolfpack to make 58.2 percent of shots. It didn’t matter to coach Mike Krzyzewski if N.C. State was just having a hot shooting night, his team had to defend better and did they ever. At a hostile Clemson environment, they held the revenge-minded Tigers to 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Duke (16-3, 12-6 ATS) returns home where they score 91.6 points per game to face a Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) squad that can also D-it up.

Coming into tonight, the Seminoles are the top-rated defense team in the country in field goal percentage at 35.5. Florida State (15-4, 4-10 ATS) is long and athletic, forcing 16.7 turnovers a game and almost seven rejections. What holds the Noles back from being elite team is perimeter shooting, which explains poor spread record this season. This is shown by Florida State having 2-9 ATS mark vs. defensive teams with shooting percentage defense of 42 percent or less this season.

Duke shoots over 50 percent on its home floor and remarkable 43.2 percent from beyond the arc, which in part is why oddsmakers have them as 13-point favorites with total of 140. The Dukies are 13-4 ATS at home when the total is 140 to 149.5; however are just 3-7 ATS in Durham against the Seminoles despite winning nine of 10. Dick Vitale will be singing the praises of Coach K and the Dukies starting at 9 Eastern.

Magical Mountain West matchup

Like the girl in last year’s KFC commercial, nobody saw two ranked teams from the Mountain West Conference squaring off in late January. BYU (20-1, 11-7 ATS) is led by point guard Jimmer Fredette, who continues to play heavy minutes in spite of battling the affects of mononucleosis. Fredette, besides being an excellent shooter is top notch passer to the Cougars big people. This is why they are shooting 50.7 percent from the field, fourth in the country. BYU is the last unbeaten club in the MWC and is 15-3 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.

New Mexico (18-3, 13-7 ATS) was the biggest pleasant surprise in the country this side of Syracuse back in December. Most believed the Lobos suffering back to back losses in the first part of January was the signal this team had overachieved and was headed back to where most expected them to be. However, coach Steve Alford’s squad has again proved the critics wrong with four consecutive W’s and they are 12-3 ATS in home games after three consecutive conference contests since 2006-07 campaign.

The line has jumped around, but presently the Lobos are favored by two-points and are 9-0 ATS after two straight wins by 15 points or more. New Mexico is 4-2 in conference and needs this win to keep title hopes alive. This matchup starts at 10 Eastern and is on the Mountain Network.

Team toughness on display Tuesday

Adversity will often determine character. For Purdue, Tennessee and to a lesser degree Northern Iowa and Wichita State, they will all be tested on Super Tuesday. The Boilermakers have lost three in a row; the Vols take to the road since having best player dismissed and the Panthers look to stay perfect in conference action, while the Shockers look to rebound from loss.

Purdue pride on display

The Boilermakers (14-3, 8-9 ATS) started 14-0 and looked like one of the best teams in the country, three conferences losses later they might not even be a Big Ten contender unless they can overcome inadequacies. The question around the country has been what’s wrong with Purdue? Unfortunately, the warts are in more than one location.

Start with the Boilermakers are a good not a great shooting team. Purdue makes 45.2 percent from the field, which is only good for a tie for fifth in the conference with Wisconsin. When they have an off shooting night like they did at Northwestern (35.6 percent) their defense alone can’t overcome bad shooting eye. Though they are a +7 in turnover margin, coach Matt Painter has another issue, rebounding.

Beyond 6-foot-10 JaJuan Johnson, Purdue lacks height, as Robbie Hummel continues to be miscast as power forward. The Boilers have been out-rebounded in every Big Ten game thus far, by an average of over eight per game. That means few offensive boards for opportunities to score and giving up too many chances to the opposition. If Johnson gets in foul trouble, then the problem becomes even larger.

Purdue is a 2.5-point road favorite at Illinois (12-6, 5-10-1 ATS) according to Bookmaker.com, who is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games. The Boilermakers are on 2-6 ATS slide as favorites and 3-8 ATS against teams with a winning home record. Possibly there only saving grace is the Illini are 1-10 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick, losing by almost six points game.

This Big Ten tilt starts at approximately 9 Eastern on ESPN.

Why don’t we do it on the road?

It’s been a test of character for Tennessee, losing four players to suspension, especially its best player Tyler Smith, who has been dismissed from the squad. The Vols (14-2, 7-6 ATS) have been able to overcome a shortened roster playing at home, which has been a big plus. Though guards Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum returned to practice Sunday, coach Bruce Pearl’s club takes to the SEC road for the first time since the off-campus incident occurred.

Coach Pearl and his team have done great work in rallying, playing with just six scholarship players on the roster until Goins and Tatum returned. A hostile environment sets up a different set of circumstances for a team that is 17-32 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive wins.

Look for this to be an angry Alabama (11-6, 7-7 ATS) club having lost two straight. The Crimson Tide student body will likely have an opinion about Tennessee’s returning players, who according to Pearl might not see any action, preferring to keep the recent rotation intact. The Volunteers are 2.5-point favorites; however Bama is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less or pick. ESPN has coverage at 7 Eastern.

Missouri Valley matchup a beauty

If you haven’t seen Northern Iowa (16-1, 12-4 ATS), all they do is systematically disassemble opponents. They have a collection of skillful guards with different abilities. Center Jordan Eglseder is 7’0, 285 pounds, with a deft left-handed touch and forward Adam Koch is dependable 13 points a night with five boards and solid defender for squad that is 16-4 ATS versus clubs that concede 64 or fewer points a game over the last two seasons.

Wichita State (16-3, 7-5 ATS) has proved its pedigree with wins over Texas Tech and quality road triumphs at Cleveland State and Missouri State. The Shockers have imposing depth, with eight players averaging 17 to 30 minutes a game, with no drop off. Guards Clevin Hannah and Toure Murry, along with center J.T. Durley are the team’s three leading scorers that are part of a very balanced attack. Coach Gregg Marshall stresses defense and his players are wholly committed to limiting descent looks at the basket by the opposition. Wichita State is off tough one-point loss at Creighton and is 5-0 ATS after a defeat.

The Shockers are a three-point favorite which doesn’t mean much since Northern Iowa is 16-4 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. These combatants are 6-6 SU and ATS at Charles Koch Arena the last 12 years. This MVC matchup starts at 9:05 on ESPNU.

Thursday's Top Action

We’ll start Thursday with top notch System is college hoops that is 25-5 ATS. The Top Trend is nearly perfect in the SEC tonight. Good Luck

What I thought today - Last night in a busy college basketball Wednesday, home underdogs were 6-9-1 ATS. Home favorites of 10 or more were pedestrian 5-5 ATS on the college hardwood. In the NBA last evening, the OVER was 8-3.

Check the internet for Lane Kiffin’s press conferences, one leaving Tennessee and the other taking the USC job. Make sure to have the shower running, you’ll need one after listening to him.

On Twitter at: www.twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Basketball System -1) Play Against road teams like the Citadel when the line is +3 to -3, who shoot 42 or less percent on the season, against opponent after three straight games allowing a shooting pct. or 40 percent or less. This system pops in at 83.3 percent over 13 years.

Free Basketball Trend-2) Mississippi State is 11-1 ATS after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.

Free Basketball Pick -3) LCC consensus play on St. Mary's.

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College Basketball Weekend Action and Note

I just want to thankk everyone that dropped by the last 10 days, things have been sparce around 3Daily Winners. I had a horrible cold and have not done anything besides work. No betting, no anything. I finally went to the doctor yesterday and got the drugs I needed to finally break this. I running well behind on many things, but should be back to normal by Monday and might even have stuff for the weekend besides the NFC Wild Card games. Again thanks.

The conference action goes into high gear this weekend, this a number of super matchups that immediately will have an impact on league play throughout the country. Saturday will showcase contests from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12 and the Mountain West to name a few. On Sunday, after getting a real scare from Cornell, top-ranked Kansas travels to Knoxville for late afternoon matchup with Tennessee. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Saturday, Jan. 9

Connecticut at Georgetown (-5, 132) 12:00E ESPN

The Huskies (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) are slowly growing as a team. The offense and defense are not quite to coach Jim Calhoun’s standards, however he’s finding more than enough to build on. Early in the season Calhoun was sometimes frustrated by different player’s efforts, that is no longer the case as he is instead more concerned with the execution. Kemba Walker and Stanley Robinson in particular have been playing well and the UConn team shooting percentage has been rising to present 46.5 percent, running the offense more precisely. Connecticut is 15-6 ATS in January the last few years.

Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS) will be among the teams with the least amount of depth in the Big East, with only nine true scholarship players on the roster along with walk-ons. The Hoyas have a solid seven man rotation which can matchup with almost any team they will face in the league. The issue becomes when they incur foul trouble, suffer an injury that could take a player down for a number of games or if poor performance leaves coach John Thompson III seeking other answers. G-Town has been notoriously poor home team the last few seasons and is 9-21 ATS on home court over the last three seasons.

Since 1997, Connecticut is 4-2 SU and ATS at Georgetown with the total also 4-2 Over.

Purdue at Wisconsin (+1.5,125) 1:30E BTN

Among the couple of different Purdue logos’ floating around is a train with the name built into the black and gold logo. This turns out to be a very apt description of the Boilermakers (14-0, 8-6 ATS) basketball team, as they have steamrolled the competition for the most part this campaign. With the shooting eye still not always in focus, coach Matt Painter’s club has focused on two of his staples, defense and rebounding. Purdue players are so attentive to passing angles they clog the passing lanes like rush hour traffic and are ferocious rebounders, which is particularly important against a club like Wisconsin. The Boilers are 4-10 ATS after a spread cover.

In making preseason prognostications it is impossible to know how certain players will react in college, negatively or positively from year to year. Badgers forward Jon Leuer grew 10 inches in high school and the last 12 months his weight and agility have caught up to his size and he now ranks in the Top 10 in the conference in at least a half dozen categories. This helps explain why Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS) has been so productive with guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon running the show. The Badgers normally have low turnover figures which should limit Purdue’s scoring chances and Wisky is 25-8 ATS at home versus teams scoring 77 or more points a game.

The Boilermakers have won and covered four straight over Wisconsin including last two in Madison.

Duke at Georgia Tech (+7, 145) 2:00E ESPN

To this point of the season, this is a different Duke team then in the last few seasons under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils (13-1, 9-4 ATS) still have a great deal panache from the perimeter, however this season Brian Zoubek and the other Duke front court players have given them more production in the paint area and they can negate some other strength’s of opponents. This gives Coach K more options against bigger teams instead of having to play small, which has been the case in recent years. The Dukies are a stellar 63-34 ATS in January.

After falling to Florida State in ACC lid-lifter, Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS) returns to conference play with three challenging conflicts starting with Duke. Coach Paul Hewitt brought in a sensational freshmen class and has played four of them extensively, often starting three of them. The Yellow Jackets have been buzzing around on defense, holding opponents to sensational 35.9 percent shooting, which has helped them to fast start. Against teams like Duke, Georgia Tech has to put the ball in the basket with greater consistency to improve on 30-14 ATS record home underdog or pick.

Duke is 10-1 and 8-3 ATS at Alexander Memorial Coliseum in last 11 visits.

Kansas State at Missouri (-5,158) 2:00E ESPN2

On the first of December, coach Frank Martin called out his talented squad, after narrowly defeating Fort Hays State, from the lower regions of collegiate basketball. Accepting responsibility, Kansas State players has been bulldozer, knocking down everything in its path, against pretty descent non-conference competition. Big 12 plays commences for K-State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at a rugged venue in Columbia. Junior guard Jacob Pullen is among the scoring leaders in the conference, but he is receiving plenty of help from the likes Denis Clemente and others. The Wildcats are creating more turnovers than Pillsbury and are 15-3 ATS after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half.

The Missouri players could get arrested with all the thefts of the basketball they have had this season. The Tigers (12-3, 5-4 ATS) have had at least 10 steals in 13 different contests thanks to players like Zaire Taylor, Kim English and Keith Ramsey. Their quickness and understanding of coach Mike Anderson pressure defense makes this a dangerous club even if the baseline players are still trying to win jobs. The Tigers are 9-2 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game over the last two seasons.

Missouri has mastered Kansas State at home with 10 wins in last 12 attempts, but is only .500 ATS.

UNLV at New Mexico (-4, 145) 4:00E VERSUS

This will be the close of three stern encounters for UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS), having lost the last two to USC and BYU. The Rebels go 11 deep and expect coach Lon Kruger to tighten that number down to nine. Though UNLV has played good defense, the beleif is the continual shuffling of players has at times caused offensive stagnation, with players not getting the ball where they can be most effective. Followers of the program see this team improving on offense, if they run patterned plays and get to the free throw lane. The Rebels are just 1-6 ATS in last seven conference clashes.

New Mexico (14-2, 10-5 ATS) has played better than anticipated, and the same five players have started every game. The Lobos have been outstanding in valuing possession of the ball, committing the fewest turnovers in the Mountain West. Point guard Dairese Gary has a ridiculous 5-to-1 assist/turnover margin and JC transfer Darington Hobson has shown a superb all-around game. New Mexico is 31-12 ATS at The Pit the last three seasons.

The Lobos are 6-3 and 3-5-1 ATS hosting UNLV since 2001.

West Virginia at Notre Dame (+5, 147) 8:00E ESPNU

Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS) plays mostly zone defensive trying to hide defensive deficiencies and for the most part does a pretty solid job in holding opposing teams to 70.7 points per game. West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) recently had 26 consecutive game streak snapped scoring 70 or more points, however is 49-1 SU under coach Bob Huggins when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than its opponent. Despite incredible depth, the Mountaineers have a lot of walking wounded and would prefer to stay away from shootout with the Irish since they are 0-9 ATS when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game.

Everyone knows the Notre Dame basketball team does their best work at home and this is their chance to at least grab a little national attention, tying to upset West Virginia. Notre Dame has worked to piece together a representative club for league play and would be near the bottom of the Big East without seniors Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson, the stalwarts of the program. Coach Mike Brey will need tremendous performances from this dynamic duo, with the role players stepping up. It about shooting for Notre Dame, who is 13-0 ATS when they make 47 to 53 percent of shot attempts.

West Virginia is 0-8 and 3-5 ATS at South Bend the last 13 years.

Sunday, Jan. 10

Kansas at Tennessee (+6,151) 4:30E CBS

To date Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) has been right on schedule as the nation’s best team, and the schedule had failed to bring the necessary tests to assure the Jayhawks are cohesive on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes, until Cornell contest. Kansas may be 23-8 ATS playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons, but playing in Knoxville with its fans is a demanding task. The emergence of Xavier Henry has overshadowed the personal problems Cole Aldrich has been dealing with family matters. This is precisely the kind of contest vets like Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins have to shine.

The Volunteers (11-2, 5-5 ATS) are 19-5 ATS as a home underdog or pick and master motivator Bruce Pearl will have his squad geeked. He’ll have to with four suspended players, including All-SEC performer Tyler Smith. The four were arrested on drug and weapons charges following a traffic stop after their 66-59 victory over the Tigers on New Year’s Eve. Tennessee has not been knocking down long distance shoots with any regularity (33.7) and it’s hard to imagine they clip Kansas without the three-ball swishing thru the nets. Pearl will look to Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince, and Scotty Hopson to pick up the scoring slack for suspended players and hope Renaldo Woolridge can fill is admirably for Smith.

Top notch test for both teams, with Kansas 17-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams allowing 42 percent or less since last year.