NBA Finals Thoughts

The Los Angeles Lakers are the kings of the NBA for the 11th time in L.A. and the 16th time in franchise history. When it is all said and done, that’s all that matters, but my goodness, we as fans had to sit and watch this less than epic Game 7.

In retrospect, given the choice between watching the Celtics and Lakers deciding contest and giving my dog peanut butter to lick from his mouth for roughly three hours, the latter at the very least had comedic possibilities.

There was no question both teams were putting in a great deal of defensive effort, how else would you explain 98 missed shots out of 154 taken? (Let’s not forget the 12 uncontested missed free throws the team from L.A. clanged off the rim)

However, it wasn’t all great defense. It was easy enough to spot the difference.

Wide open shots were careening off the rim like the basketballs were filled with helium. Yes, many shot attempts were certainly highly contested, yet if you witnessed the footwork of the players launching these wayward heaves, even when they created space being guarded by a single player, they were typically off-balance, leaning one direction while shooting the orange.
The best way to describe it for football fans, it was the equivalent of a quarterback having happy feet in the pocket after facing a relentless pass rush.

ABC/ESPN analyst and former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy went to the line, but did not cross it giving out his true feelings about what we was being paid to watch and describe.

Van Gundy notes about halfway thru the fourth quarter, this was some of the worst offensive basketball he could remember seeing in a game of this magnitude. He realized what he just said honestly as coach and reverted back to being an announcer, adding that indeed the defense was also very good, contributing to the poor execution.

If Van Gundy was given truth serum or an adult beverage or two, my bet would be he thought the players were in full C-word mode. Even Kobe Bryant touched on the subject in the post game news conference. “Tonight it got the best of me,” Bryant said immediately after the game after 6-24 shooting performance.

“Sometimes you want something so bad it slips away from you.”

You know how Betty White became a sensation again thanks to Facebook; already Bricklayers of America are petitioning on Facebook and Twitter both the Lakers and Celtics players be the keynote speakers at next convention based on their expertise.

In the end the Boston Celtics missed Kendrick Perkins or at least it seemed that way as they were clobbered on the boards 53-40, of which 23 were after a Lakers missed shot.

Though it felt like the C’s had the game well in hand at various points, the facts show they were outscored each of the final three quarters and the team that won the rebounding battle was 7-0 and 6-1 ATS in the series.

The game did supply NBA conspiracy theorists just what they wanted, the Lakers coming back to win the last two games at home in Game 7, once again you are correct. (At least in their own minds)

For NBA fans it’s on to the draft, while the rest of us put our noses back into studying baseball numbers to hopefully beat that sport on a daily basis.

NBA Finals Game 5 – Just Win Baby

Nothing official has come forward, but expect Paul Pierce has to be pleased going back to Los Angeles and he might even fly back with his teammates leading in the series. Say what you want about the Boston Celtics, this group is buoyant and tenacious, from the starters to the bench players and their coach might be a blast at a black jack table, hitting on 16 because he feels a five coming as next card.

If Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Rasheed Wallace and Tony Allen sound like the makeup of an NBA expansion team, that belief would likely be correct. However, this group of bench jockey’s scored on the first nine possessions of the final stanza for the Celtics and largely cemented the game away against the Lakers regular starters.

Coach Doc Rivers took a gamble, not calculated, but heart-felt and emotional, that this contingent had just a bit more to give with over 240 seconds left in Game 4 and his team leading by nine points and waved back his starting subs back to the bench.

“Hell, Rondo and all of them were begging me to keep guys in. 'Don't take them out. Don't take them out,'" Rivers recalled. "It was great. That was the loudest I've seen our bench, and it was our starters cheering from the bench. I thought it was terrific."

This enabled the Celtics to tie the series and moved their record to 8-3 SU and ATS at TD Garden in the postseason with one more to go.

Boston could be gaining some advantages as the series is wearing on. Pierce was much more efficient in running off screen and roles, getting Ron Artest out of his face, scoring 19 points and handing out five assists.

The player formerly known as “Big Baby” has been a man, as Davis’ internal flame has him continually outhustling the Los Angeles big men and he found a way to not let his height be a detriment in the paint against the taller L.A. players in making seven of 10 shots and collecting five boards (four offensive).

Going from the speed and quickness of Rajon Rondo to Nate Robinson allows the Celtics to have accelerator to the floor like a NASCAR driver in a straight away if they choose for all 48 minutes.

The Lakers give the appearance of being in control, but cracks are formulating. Andrew Bynum knee not only limits him, but forces Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to log more minutes against the more physical Boston frontline.

Though Kobe Bryant scored 33 points in last conflict, the Allen Gang (Tony and Ray) are making life difficult, as witnessed by his seven turnovers.

Bryant said, "They got all the energy points, the hustle points, the second-chance points ... "

" ... points in the paint, beat us to the loose balls," Bryant continued. "I mean, that's how the game turned around."

For the third time in this year’s playoffs, Los Angeles is 2-2 and they are 19-6 ATS when a series is tied and 18-6 ATS in road games having lost two of their last three tilts. The extra day off should help Bynum and the exhausted looking Lakers should be fresher.

Sportsbooks have Boston as 2.5-point home faves with total slipping to 187.5 after a pair of Under’s.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in last 10 NBA Finals’ affairs and 5-0 ATS with two days off. They are 6-0-1 UNDER in last seven home assignments.

The Lakers are still a potent 37-21 as an underdog, including 5-2 ATS in previous seven tries. Phil Jackson must devise ways to get better looks and increase the tempo since his club is 15-6 UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less this season, which has them being outscored 3.9 points per game when this happens.

ABC will have Game 5 at 8:00 Eastern and the team that snares the most rebounds in 4-0 SU and ATS in the Finals.

Game 3 moves to Boston for NBA Finals

Don’t you just love the drama of the NBA Finals, everything is overanalyzed, everyone is seeking a unique storyline and all the conjecture goes right to the top. One day the Lakers are invincible, the next they might not play another game this season in Los Angeles. Boston is in the same predicament as Doc Rivers noted. “We lose and were old, we win and we have veteran experience.”

The easiest aspect to lose sight of is this is a series, a best of seven. That alone usually means twists and turns, especially when it is The Finals.

No question Rajon Rondo has had a fantastic playoff series for Boston, but ESPN’s Colin Cowherd is calling him the third best player in the NBA, just behind Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. (His reasoning why ahead of Dwayne Wade is because he’s taken his team deeper in the playoffs, disregarding the talent difference between the two clubs.)

Face the facts, Boston has too much leadership and experience to go down like a Cleveland, they have players that will find a way to contribute, even if a part of their game is not working 100 percent perfectly.

The Celtics return home where they are 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS this season (7-2 SU & ATS in the playoffs). While Boston fans and backers are psyched they can end the series at home, it’s extremely unlikely to happen. As noted, the Celtics are far from a sure thing or bet at home and the Bryant surly attitude after Sunday’s loss would suggest he will come with a vengeance, if the referee’s let both teams play.

Both games in the Finals have gone Over the total, however not based on level of skill shown, rather by referee’s enjoying the tweeting of their whistles and evidently TV time. As compared to the Stanley Cup Finals where penalties are down compared to the rest of the playoffs, the basketball fouls are coming faster than Twitter ‘tweets”.

As John Hollinger of ESPN.com points out, after two contests the numbers show an average of 56 fouls and 67 free throws compared to regular season average of 41.7 and 49.1 per game, respectively. Though playoff basketball tends to be slower and more physical and a few more fouls would be expected to be called since teams will not concede layups as often. Nonetheless, the fouls for a four quarter Finals confrontation are up over 20 percent compared to the rest of the postseason.

NBA fans are not turning on The Finals to see Bryant, Ray Allen and several other players on the bench with ticky-tacky fouls that are not even called during the regular season.

In spite of the defeat, the Phil Jackson and company can’t be totally depressed. It took the best deep shooting performance ever by Allen and a triple-double by Rondo to knock off the Lakers with Bryant and Lamar Odom glued to the bench with fouls for lengthy periods. Though it is earlier than a couple of the other series they’ve played, L.A. is 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

Boston will look to keep the pressure on with Rondo forcing the issue with the ball and feeding the C’s big guys in the paint, to keep Pau Gasol and others busy, opening up the mid-range jump shooting game the Celtics prefer.

Sportsbooks have Rivers club as 2.5-point favorites with total of 192.5. It will be worth watching how both teams react in the first half traveling across the country and playing a game of this magnitude less than 48 hours after completing the prior conflict and losing additional three hours for time zone shift.

The rest aspect could be important for sports betting purposes with Boston 7-2 ATS with one day between contests and the Lakers 5-14 ATS.

Los Angeles is 13-3 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, while the home team for Game 3 is 7-3 UNDER as playoff favorite.

The starting time moves back to 9:00 Eastern, with the Celtics 4-2 and 4-1-1 ATS when the Lake Show makes an appearance in Bean-Town the last three years.

Monday Mania

Took a slight misstep at 1-2 and will attempt to correct that immediately starting with a perfect trend in one of the AL West battles. The Best System is 82.7 percent and Mike of the LCC has what he believes is NL winner! Good Luck

What I thought today – The referees are ruining the NBA playoffs while enhancing those in the NHL. (See tomorrow’s article for more details)

On Twitter at: http://twitter.com/3Dailywinners

Free Baseball System -1) Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Cleveland, averaging less than a home run per game, against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. Boston certainly appears the play backed with system that is 43-9, 82.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The Angels are 11-0 after accumulating 17 or more base hits.

Free Baseball Pick -3) Mike went 9-3 over the weekend in all sports and has the Reds as his top play tonight.

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Lakers large and in charge

Have you noticed how calm the Lakers have been this postseason? Yes, they have lost four road games and been 2-2 in two different series, plus gave away a few fourth leads the caused spread losses for backers, but not once have Kobe Bryant and the rest of his teammates looked truly flustered and exasperated to the point where they appeared beatable in a series.

Game 1 was perfect example as Los Angeles was methodical in beating Boston. The Lakers were up by five after the first quarter, led by nine and the half and salted the contest away with 34-23 third stanza, building insurmountable 84-64 lead.

Phil Jackson’s club is 9-2 ATS after a playoff win this spring and are under control. After the Lakers ended the series against Phoenix in Game 6, the talk in the desert was the Suns lack of defensive intensity, as the Lake Show has 91 points after three quarters. Who would have ever guessed the defensive-minded Celtics would have permitted 84 points with 12 minutes still left to play?

It was shocking how little resistance Boston put up. Early today if you Googled the term “non-factor”, pictures of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett all appeared. Paul Pierce was the only Celtics player showing any game close to what Celtics would expect, but that was mostly in the final quarter when the outcome was already determined, as they fell to 6-19 ATS versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this year.

To borrow a little Dick Vitale speak, the Lakers were ‘windex-men” cleaning the glass, outrebounding Boston by 42-31. With Pau Gasol having eight offensive rebounds, you would have thought he had grown a foot.

When Doc Rivers was asked about the last time he remembered his team being so outclassed on the boards, he responded this way. “I don’t know if I recall one,” he said. “But I know if there was, we lost that game, too. I can guarantee you that.”

You don’t rebound; you don’t win. What’s true during the regular season holds even truer now.
“They killed us on the glass,” he said.

What can Boston do to plot an upset in Game 2? Of course they have to rebound better, which might entail sending more players to the glass on the defensive side and once the ball is secured, immediately find Rondo and let him fire up the jets to beat L.A. down the floor. Rondo has to show better judgment with the ball in his hands.

The Celtics staff has to find ways to rub Pierce off Ron Artest’s “krazy glue” defense. Garnett can’t be dominated by Gasol, he has to work harder for rebounds and make medium range jump shots to pull the big man from Spain away from the bucket.

The Lakers offense is especially fluid at the Staples Center, which suggests Perkins has to be more a factor on the offense end besides setting screens. Though his scoring skills are limited, Perkins has to defeat Andrew Bynum in the post and be fed the ball for dunks or layups. Rivers and his coaches usually make solid adjustments and are 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

Oddsmakers have L.A. as a six-point fave with total of 190.5 and they are 8-3 ATS after breaking the century mark. With two days between contests the Lakers are 12-4 UNDER this season. The Celtics will have to be much more assertive and are 22-10 ATS away from home after consecutive games with 19 or less assists. The last five times Boston has allowed 100 or more points, the next contest goes UNDER the number.

This matchup has earlier start time of 8:00 Eastern on ABC and this is an absolute must win for the team in green, as it appears very unlikely they would sweep three at home.

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Lakers vs Celtics - That say's it all

In the history of the NBA, two names stand above the rest, the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. These two franchises have combined to win 32 NBA titles (the Lakers won five in Minneapolis). Boston has beaten the Lakers nine of 11 meetings in the NBA Finals which substantiates the point for many people of substance over style.

The Lakers like to make the argument that in spite of having a couple less titles than the Celtics, theirs is the better franchise having a bit of Jack Nicklaus in them (18 major’s titles, 17 second’s), finishing runner-up 16 times.

What makes this appointment television is history. For many of the players let alone those tuned in to watch, this matchup is about Larry Bird, Bill Russell, Magic Johnson and Jerry West. What made this important is they met one another over a short period of time. Boston defeated the Lakers seven times from 1959 to 1969 and they met three times in four years from 1984 to 1987.

That is what makes this renewal even better than two June’s ago. The last time basketball fans had a 21-year break between heated encounters; this time most of the combatants are the same that met two years prior. What is different this time compared to 2008 when the Celtics hung their first NBA championship banner since 1986?

Trust and Age

Though Ray Allen was having brutal postseason two years ago, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in particular were at the top of their respective games. Each was able to dominate for lengthy periods of any contest and did in those six games.

Today, neither KG nor Pierce has that same ability; both can make a series of outstanding plays to help Boston, just in a shorter time span. The Celtics are helped by Allen being a much stronger contributor, but the driving force of this Doc Rivers club is Rajon Rondo. The former Kentucky product has exploded onto the scene in the playoffs and been the catalyst behind the Celtics success. The C’s now feed off what Rondo delivers.

Two years ago, Kobe did not trust his teammates. He demanded total effort in the biggest games and they did not deliver to his liking. Last year’s title drive was all about finishing the deal and becoming champions again and thou Bryant has his doubts from time to time about the 2010 edition of the Lake Show, he knows what to expect from Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol and to a lesser degree Lamar Odom and Ron Artest.

It’s all about the matchups

How does Boston limit Kobe’s effectiveness? Doc Rivers coach’s by feel more than X’s and O’s during games. Rivers will go after Bryant with Baskin-Robbins approach, using a variety of methods. Guard Kobe tight to force him to drive into lane where the Celtics big men can create issues. Let him shoot from the outside to prevent him from getting fouled too often and adding up points. They will double Kobe on the wings or single him up in the middle of the floor and go with what works best.

Derek Fisher took it as personal mission to stay with Steve Nash in West finals, but he has nowhere near enough foot speed to stay with Rondo. That means Bryant will see Rondo aplenty and if Boston wants to slow the pace, L.A. will be cool with that process, since Bryant can use his size and wing span to stay in front of Rondo. Expect coach Rivers to dictate to Rondo to run at every opportunity to maximize his effectiveness.

Pierce and Artest is a potential swing matchup in the series. Pierce’s jab step jumper is more deadly when he sets up defender by driving to the bucket. If he can make Artest indecisive about his intentions, he could frustrate Ron-Ron into drawing silly fouls and taking him mentally out of the game.

Artest has to knock down enough shots to keep Pierce honest on defense and prevent him from clogging driving lanes. Artest’s job on the other end of the floor is to limit Pierce’s scoring ability and work him so that his legs don’t give him the leverage he needs late in the game to make jumpers.

In the frontcourt, Boston will try and manhandle the Lakers bigs with their imposing strength using Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace to roughhouse. Los Angeles should be accustomed to these tactics, expect Phil Jackson to try and manufacture matchups playing to the strengths of Gasol, Odom and Andrew Bynum in the triangle offense.

Coaching counts

In 2008, the Rivers vs. Jackson coaching matchup was thought to be akin to choosing between Snookie of “Jersey Shore” and Megan Fox. Rivers it turns out is the right coach for Boston, continually pushing his club to do better thru effort and precision and working game plans with mastermind assistant Tom Thibodeau.

Jackson was almost passive when his club lost to the Celtics in the finals two seasons ago, but has been much more involved the last two years, not sitting idly by wanting players to learn from adversity. He’s been more aggressive in substitution patterns and back to trying different bench players in various situations to find the spark when needed.

ATS nuts and bolts

Both teams were unreliable home teams wagers with the Lakers 42-7 and 21-27-2 ATS record and the Celtics 31-19 and 19-30-1 ATS. Given their ability and skill, each was a factor as visitors with Boston 31-18 (26-22-1 ATS) and L.A. 27-22 (22-26-1 ATS).

In the last three years the Celtics “Big Three” is 7-5 and 9-2 ATS against Los Angeles. The road team has won five games outright of the previous 13 meetings, however just one was in the finals in 2008.

You will read the home court is not a significant factor because of how the visitors have played lately, but if you are making series wager, the teams with home court advantage has won eight of last ten.

What happens?

Only once in the previous 25 years has seed other than No. 1-3 won the NBA championship and Boston was a four seed coming into the postseason. Eddie House and Leon Powe were significant players for the Celtics in the last finals meeting, both play elsewhere today.
Gasol and Bryant together are better players than previous finals confrontation and the Lakers are 44-0 in any series with Jackson as coach if they win Game 1.

This will be rugged, physical series, with the trophy staying in L.A.

3Daily Winners Pick- L.A. Lakers (-180) in seven over Boston (+150)

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MLB Series Wagering - Mets at Yankees

Neither the Mets nor the Yankees return to the Big Apple in the best of moods after suffering series’ losses in what has amounted to rivalry week for both teams. The Mets lost series to Philadelphia, giving them six losses in last nine contests. The Yankees were swept in Boston and are 0-8 against the Red Sox in 2009.

Though players typically try and down play the significance of these types of interleague games, the fact is this is New York and they can’t help being caught up in the maelstrom with rabid fans and media descending on them. Both scuffling clubs will bring positives into the Subway Series, as the Metropolitans (31-27, -0.3 units) are 23-8 in road games when playing on Friday since 2007 and the Yanks are 15-3 at home after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span.

Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88 ERA) has experienced a career renaissance this season, being picked up late by the Mets who needed a fifth starter. Pitching at Citi Field has helped the well-traveled veteran right-hander; however he’s performed above average on the road with 3-1 and serviceable 4.07 ERA. Hernandez has been downright awesome in his last three starts, with a 1.66 earned run average, which included complete game and seven shutout innings, thou both were against woeful Washington. He’s been moved up one day since John Maine was placed on DL Thursday, yet at least still had four days between starts. Hernandez is 18-10 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

The Yankees (34-26, -2.8 units) counter with Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.39), who will not have to face dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado or Jose Reyes, who are both disabled. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but, losing five of last eight games and scoring 4.2 runs per game in the process. The Yanks are 18-11 in their new home and part of Chamberlain’s job will be to keep the ball in the yard. Balls have been flying over the fence at Coors Field pace. Chamberlain has been about average (which is good at the new Yankee Stadium), surrendering a total of seven homers in his 11 games pitched. New York and the big right-hander are 7-1 in last eight starts at Yankee Stadium.

DiamondSportsbook.com has the home-standing team in the pinstripes as -220 money line favorites with total Un10.5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in interleague play at 124-89 (.582) and are 45-17 as a favorite of -201 or greater. Watch the total on this one, since the Mets are 11-1 OVER on the road after three or more consecutive home games and the Yankees are 13-2 OVER at home after a one run loss.

Game 1 Edge: Yankees

The middle encounter will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair. At this time, the presumed fill-in starter for the Mets will be Fernanado Nieve, who pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season for the Mets after they called him up from Triple-A Buffalo on June 6. Nieve is a hard throwing righty, who has shown proclivity to hit a lot of bats in his major league stints. Most likely, manager Jerry Manual will have to go to bullpen, which has been an issue for the Yankees who are 2-9 vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22) will go the Yankees, who’s not found the new ballpark to his liking. More balls fly out to right field and Pettitte’s ERA is 5.40 at home compared to 2.58 on the road. The Yanks are 29-13 when the veteran lefty is a Game 2 starter and they are 8-2 versus their city rival when he takes the hill.

Game 2 Edge: Yankees

Amazingly, this won’t be the Sunday night game, probably because ESPN didn’t want to cut in on NBA Finals action. The series finale expects to be a good pitching matchup with Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39) battling A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89). Both pitchers are coming off less than impressive efforts, with Santana tying a career high in allowing four home runs, yet pitched well enough to pick up the win. Burnett was too amped or too strong, walking five and allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, in 7-0 loss at Boston. Day games have favored the Yankees who are 13-9 coming into the series, compared to the Mets 8-11 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

Despite having the best record in interleague action, the Yankees are 19-17 against the Mets since 2003. Don’t see this as being deterrent, as Joe Girardi’s club will want to put Boston series behind them. The key game will be the opener and don’t see New York losing. (OK, I’m doing anything to improve my record, make it the Yankees) With the Bombers favored big in the first two contests, backing both and keeping fingers crossed they deliver a series win.

DiamondSportsbook.com series odds: Mets +200, Yankees -260

3DW Pick: Yankees

2009 Record – 2-6

Orlando Magic have to cope with Kobe

The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations.

If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.

The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.

That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at DiamondSportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.

You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.

Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.

The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.

Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.

Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.

The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.

Let's dreg up Four Winners Today

Our Best System plays have been off a little, but we continue to deliver in other areas, giving us 2-1 day. Maybe today will be the day it fires and today’s system is 36-6. Phillies and Dodgers meet four times in L.A., who has the edge in opener, see Top Trend. Paul Buck offers two Free Plays today. Good Luck.

What I learned yesterday- Trevor Hoffman earned his 14th save of 2009 in Milwaukee's win against Florida on Wednesday night. Hoffman, at age 41, has not allowed a run in his 16 innings pitched this season. The last pitcher age 40 or older to begin a season with at least 16 consecutive scoreless innings was Art Fowler for the 1963 Angels.

Free Baseball System-1) PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, who are not so hot AL offensive team like Oakland, scoring 4.5 or less runs a game, against a good starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season. This special system comes in at 36-6, 85.7 percent.

Free Baseball Trend -2) The L.A. Dodgers are 13-0 against the money line in home games after three consecutive games versus a NL West rival this season.

Free Baseball and Hoops Selection -3) Paul Buck liked Tampa Bay so much yesterday, he’s playing them again Thursday. He’s also taking the UNDER in Game 1 of NBA Finals.

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Better late then never Wednesday action

Sorry to be so late, had to get NBA Finals material completed. Bounced right back with 2-1 day and have top notch system that has complete write up below. (Interestingly enough, a few LCC members like Texas) Boston won in MoTown yesterday, can they make it two straight, see Top Trend. The Dodgers dodged defeat scoring five in the eight inning to beat Snakes 6-5, will Paul be as fortunate again or will he have blowout winner? Good Luck. By the way, added new feature to bottom of page.

What I learned yesterday - Washington took a six-game losing streak into Tuesday night's game against Tim Lincecum and the Giants. The Nationals scored four runs against Lincecum and then six runs off the San Francisco bullpen for a 10-6 victory. It's only the third time that a team carrying a losing streak of more than five games beat an opponent that was starting the reigning National League Cy Young award winner. It happened in 1972, when the Cardinals ended an eight-game losing streak with a win against Ferguson Jenkins and the Cubs, and in 2001, when the Rockies beat Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks to stop a six-game drought.

Free Baseball System-1) See below article for today’s best system.

Free Baseball Trend -2) Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox are is 12-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last three seasons.

Free Baseball Selection -3) Paul Buck was very lucky with the Dodgers pick last night and he hopes his luck continues playing Tampa Bay tonight.

Note- If you prefer to have this sent to you daily instead of having to visit the site, sign up for our FREE mailing list on the right. You will also receive all my personal plays for Free and your name will NEVER be given to anyone.